2012 Iowa Caucus Live Thread

Iowa GOP ^ | 1.3.12 | Free Vulcan

[Free Vulcan]

Live thread to cover today's GOP caucus. News, predictions, opinions, totals, and the like.

Will be heading out about 4 pm or so to get our site ready and do a final review with the precinct chairs. I expect it to be bigger than 2008 with very heavy turnout and we are preparing for that.

We are also ready for disruptions. They simply won't be tolerated. The state party sent us a memo saying if there's any trouble call the cops immediately. Anyone trying to cause problems is going to get a rude awakening.

My predictions of the outcome are a narrow field with about a 10 point spread for the top five with Bachmann far behind in single digits:

Santorum - 24 Romney - 22 Paul - 20 Perry - 17 Gingrich - 14 Bachmann - 4 The Rest - 1

Think things are still in flux and many won't decide till right to the wire, so I'm not terribly confident of any predictions.

[BenKenobi]

Somehow I doubt Fox news is going to report that that precinct left is Santorum leading. ;)

[onyx]

Faux continues to say that Bachmann and Perry are OUT.

Well someone better tell Bachmann.

LOL.

Perry hasn’t said, he’s out. He’s just going home to Texas to think and pray about it: to see if he thinks there’s a pathway forward.

[Pappy Smear]

I'm looking at the counties at iowagop.org. Looks like Perry won 2 counties, Mitt 16, Paul 19, and Santorum 62. However Mitt won the money/urban counties, which while counties is a landslide, the actual vote is close.

One that catches my eye is Dickinson County. Not that much population, but Iowa's resort county, and a lot of money there. It is one of the few small population counties that went for Mitt. But it is also one of the wealthiest. So it appears the money Rs are going for Mitt, no surprise there I guess.

Santorum only got 1 big population county, Woodbury, which is Sioux City, and right in the very socon northwest. Paul won Story (home of ISU-no surprise) and Black Hawk, which does surprise me some-though I would guess, other than Polk, has the highest black population in Iowa.

An interesting night.

[baysider]

ABC reporter Arlette Saenz Tweet re Perry....

“Perry Spox says Thursday is earliest day a decision would be made about continuing forward “

[BenKenobi]

Santorum over Romney by 29,944 to 29,926 with 99.9 percent in.

He’s +18, only about 100 ballots outstanding.

[AmericanInTokyo]

In my book, and I may be challenged on this in the next 30 minutes or so though I doubt it, but yes, we can safely say that RICK SANTORUM IS NOW THE GOP PRESIDENTIAL FRONTRUNNER for 2012. When a Democrat beats a Republican by 7 votes in a Congressional District somewhere, the state controlled lib media immediately say it was "close, but the Democrat won." What will be the vote sep. between Mittens and Rick? And how long will they insist it is a dead heat and that "both men won Number One?" (sic) Just watch the spin on that account. If the tabulations can keep their percentages both at 25%, they will dwell on that number. They will be in a quandry if it ends up 25% (Santorum) to 24% (Romney). I am sure they are hoping the percentages come out the same. Every final last vote for Santorum counts, Romney must be dislodged.

I have come in from the cold now, from the Cain Campaign, on FR to now support Rick Santorum and will do my utmost to make that a reality, i.e. that he vanquishes Romney again and again and again, and snags this nomination. I have no ill will toward any other the other conservatives running in this race and wish them well, may the best man win, but believe me, the one thing we all agree is that ROMNEY'S CANDIDACY MUST COME TO AN END AND THE RINOS MUST NOT SEIZE THE GOP. This is like Governor Reagan taking the Party in 1980 from the Rockefeller-Ford Wing. It ain't pretty and it ain't bean ball but it is what it is. And another thing: The State Controlled Media long knives (including traitors like Laura Ingraham) will be out for Santorum at the break of dawn tomorrow. They will try to ruin him through innuendo, charges, ad hominems, maybe even made up stuff. He will need a lot of help, money, prayers, foot soldiers and internal strength to weather what is ahead. The Establishment does not like this one bit I can tell you.

[CedarDave]

99% in, Rick’s lead down to 18 votes.

[Deo volente]

Michele needs to step aside, endorse Santorum, and wait around for a possible VP nod.

Santorum/Bachmann is reliably conservative and a stark contrast to the anti-life socialists on the other side.

[bray]

The McCain endorsement should cinch the race for Rick. The only more damaging thing would be a Bob Dull endorsement.

[onyx]

She also said something about another Michele in the White House = her!

[BenKenobi]

And we ride together again. :D

YAY!

Welcome back, sir!

[BillyBoy]

And the numbers are IN! Thank you Iowa. With 96% of the total:

http://www.google.com/elections/ed/us/results
Rick Santorum 29,051 24.7% 62 counties won
Mitt Romney 28,938 24.6% 17 counties won
Ron Paul 25,121 21.3% 12 counties won
Newt Gingrich 15,639 13.3% 0 counties won <-- OWED!!!

The fans of the "conservative" guy who won 0 counties (Newt Gingrich) are now saying the conservative guy who won 62 counties (Rick Santorum) should "drop out" and endorse their guy so he can "stop Romney". At least Hillary could point to winning a decent share of delegates when she said the guy with 52% of the Democrat vote should drop out and be her running mate.

And yes, they're STILL foaming at the mouth about Santorum's Specter endorsement yet cheering on a guy who HAPPILY and DEFIANTLY endorsed THIS thing. At least Specter was pro-gun and confirmed some decent judges, more than be said for Newt's FAR-LEFT 'lady' friend here who never met a marxist scheme she didn't like:

Newt's fans are sounding to sound like Weiner defenders in the dying days of Anthony Weiner's congressional career, desperately trying to change the subject and howl about David Vitter's sex life whenever photos of Weiner's weiner are splashed all over the internet.

Pathetic spectical, really. It gets ugly seeing Newt for POTUS on life support.

[World'sGoneInsane]

Perry’s not gone yet!

[pollywog]

Well said AIT, and I couldn't agree more! Tonight did it for me. I am throwing my money and SUPPORT to Santorum.

Getting the signs up in the yard and going at it......welcome 2012!!!! We have our man!

[Windflier]

Perry hasn’t said, he’s out. He’s just going home to Texas to think and pray about it: to see if he thinks there’s a pathway forward.

I think it's over, Onyx. "Going home to Texas to reassess", is code for, "I'm done."

[RitaOK]

CNN reporting on Perry says that his numbers in South Carolina are/were at 5%. Maybe his threshold to continue hinged on a greater number than that even going into South Carolina. We will know on Perry with certainty before the Saturday night debate, that’s for sure.

[onyx]

He still has a lot of money. I don’t know what candidates are permitted to do with it, do you?

[AmericanInTokyo]

Eagles up!

Locked and loaded.

[antceecee]

I would like to see Michele Bachmann go to work in the House to repeal Obamacare... didn’t she promise to do this prior to 2010 elections?

[Hoodat]

Right now, the republican candidates are splitting votes. Happens when you have a large, diverse and strong group of candidates. Eventually someone will emerge and get the nomination.

And Mitt Romney will not be that person. As each person drops out of the race, their votes will go for someone other than Mitt Romney. And if we have a split convention, then Mitt Romney will hold as high as 35% of the delegates, leaving the remaining 65% to select someone other than Mitt Romney.

Mitt Romney is not going to win the nomination. The sooner everyone realizes that, the sooner we can move forward towards choosing a candidate based upon his/her conservatism - not his/her ability to beat Romney.