Posted on 05/07/2011 7:47:04 AM PDT by Brices Crossroads
I have observed that the polls and the news readers have taken to reminding us that Sarah Palin's nomination spells certain defeat for the GOP in 2012. Let's examine the question of Sarah Palin's prowess as a candidate, measured against the current field:
It has been noted that former Senator Rick Santorum won his Senate seat in a big GOP year (1994) and lost it big in a Democrat year (2006), sweeping in with one tide and out with another. This is evidence of weakness as a candidate. Let's examine the rest of this field, using 2006 as the barometer.
Tim Pawlenty won reelection in 2006 by the skin of his teeth, less that one half of one per cent. He is no political power house if, as an incumbent with no scandal, he can BARELY hold his seat against a no name Democrat challenger. Had it not been for the Green Party siphoning off Democrat votes, Pawlenty would have lost.
Huckabee, who was Lieutenant Governor, backed into the Governor's Mansion in 1996 when the previous governor went to jail. He managed to hold it through the salad years of Clinton's impeachment and Bush's early ascendancy, but the polls In Arkansas showed him losing badly in the big Democrat year of 2006, so he tucked tail and took his traveling medicine show out West to run for President.
Mitt Romney similarly saw his poll numbers so low that his defeat for reelection in 2006 was all but certain. Rather than face certain defeat and the end of his Presidential ambitions, Romney followed the same path as Huckabee.
So which candidate successfully swam AGAINST the tide of a big Democrat year in 2006 and registered two huge victories? SARAH PALIN. First, she dispatched Governor and three time U.S. Senator Frank Murkowski in the GOP primary by 51-19%. Then she entered the general election campaign. Unlike Pawlenty, who was aided by a challenge from the fringe left, Sarah Palin faced a third Party Challenge by a former GOPer, Andrew Halcro, who self financed a campaign against her and drew nearly 10% of the vote. Facing these adversities, and alone among the rising stars of the GOP, Sarah Palin swam hard against the big Democrat tsunami of 2006. She easily defeated popular two term former Governor Tony Knowles by 8% (the polls near election day said it was a dead heat). That, my friends, is empirical evidence of electoral prowess.
So when the Lamesteam media is telling us who is and who is not electable, based upon their early (and "cooked") polls let's follow the wise counsel of former Governor and 1928 Presidential Candidate Al Smith: "Let's look at the record." And, more to the point, let's force the media to look at the record.
If we do that, they will be forced to acknowledge that it is Sarah Palin--based not only on her great successes of 2010, but also on her tremendous "swim against the tide" in 2006-- who is by far the most formidable candidate the GOP could field in 2012.
TransTexas Corridor comes to mind
I wouldn’t have stayed home, but there would have been a write in on my ballot, I refused to vote for McCain. There was zero chance for any republican being elected in my previous state Kalifornia, I escaped this year.
In fact, however, she is running, and has been ever since her first book went Bestseller. She simply hasn't announced yet. Not only is she running, she's leading all contenders right now, and has been for well over six months.
In all the phony "push-polls" and "weighted polls," taken and made public to shape your voting habits, she seems to be lagging.
In the straight polling which the sheeple are never allowed to glimpse, but what O'Bunghole and Gingrich and Huckabee use to measure the field, she's in first place with 42%, with Trump and Romney virtually tied for 2nd place with 14-15% each.
She is running, and will announce when she's ready.
She has also already won the White House, btw.
8^D
Thanks for the analysis...I watched the SC R debate and w/o SP it was a bunch of also rans. Herman Cain was even a disappointment.
Sarah Palin has been thoroughly vetted by the MSM - who have combed through her past (and probably, her trash cans) and found nothing of substance (or we would have heard about by now). Her name recognition is probably about 99%. I can't believe that all the vicious attacks on Palin and her family, including her special needs son, Trig, 3, won't generate some sympathy for her and make the left look bad when they try to keep doing the same nasty stuff to a middle aged mother of 5 who has a proven record of accomplishment in governing and loves her country enough to face withering criticism and vile attacks on her person, character and even her children in the cause of bringing America back from the brink of destruction being wrought by the feckless, harmful socialist policies of Obama and the Democrats.
Sarah Palin is a proven winner and despite a few trolls who always jump on these threads to make disparaging comments about Palin, she will probably run, she'll definitely win the primary races and she'll beat Obama. That the left and their handmaidens, the MSM, constantly try to prtend that Plain is anathema to most voters and a loser for the GOP, their protestations simply confirm what many of us suspected; the left fears Sarah Palin. You don't attack a person the way she's been attacked (mostly through ridicule in an attempt to diminish her) unless they are a threat. I haven't seen anyone on the left going after Romney, Huckabee, Pawlenty or even Cain the way the left has attacked Sarah Palin, (almost 24/7 for over two years). That fear is a good indication that the left is a bit wiser regarding Palin that some of the honchos in the RNC, although they likely will resist a Palin candidacy based on their own prejudices against conservatives, in general. Palin is a winner and the article from Brices Croosroads shows why.
It has been my prediction that if Sarah Palin gets the nomination, she’ll select Rick Perry for her veep.
That “write-in” was the sitting republican senator that was fully endorsed by the senate republicans, and she was almost knocked off by a total unknown, your statements are silly regarding that race.
Pre-2008 Mitt Romney was not “too conservative” for Massachusetts, in fact he was the fourth republican governor in a row for Massachusetts, a state that usually elects republican governors.
"The media will undoubtedly focus on the fact that 60 percent of voters expressed doubts about Gov. Palin being ready to take over as president at short notice. But there is no evidence that this fact actually influenced people’s decision-making in the voting booth. When people were asked if Palin’s presence on the ticket was an important factor in their decision, 60 percent answered yes, 33 percent no. But of the 60 percent that said yes, 56 percent ended up voting McCain versus 43 percent Obama. By comparison, of the 33 percent that said no, only 33 percent voted McCain versus 64 percent Obama. Conclusion: on balance, people who thought Palin’s presence on the ticket was important were more likely to vote McCain by a significant margin.The Palin Factor
Palin was a net plus to the ticket. Your crappy spin doesn't change that.
And all this for someone who is now neither in public office, nor yet a declared candidate for office.
Some of your fellow Palinistas on this board are convinced that she will run. And some have even suggested that she will be swept into office with the greatest victory margin in the history of the Presidency.
the only one creating a false reality. From that poll you cite is this little tidbit.:
Exit polls show Palin appeared to help McCain by energizing the pro-life Republican base and were motivated by her selection to support him. Some 60 percent of voters said Palin was a factor when making their vote and they split for McCain over Obama on a 56-43 percentage point margin. The 33 percent of voters who said Palin made no difference when thinking about which candidate to support backed Obama 64-33 percent. Another 60 percent said Palin wasn’t qualified to become president, but Palin would have four years to convince voters she is more qualified to serve and possibly four more years under her belt as governor
> Got that? 60% of the voters said Gov Palin was a factor in their vote and out of those 60% McCain won 56-43%. 33% said it didn't matter. that's 93% of all the voters)
Here is a hint stop using leftwing media and look at the hard numbers in the poll itself not how the left spun them
__________________________________________
Your little train is completely off the tracks sparky.
A) She is no longer a governor (she quit, remember - ooops).
B) Her high approval rating came early in her half term when she was redistributing corporate revenues.
C) Her approval rating had dropped by half by the time she quit.
D) She is not a public official, popular or otherwise...she quit.
It must be tough to have to get on the fantasy bus to make her look good. But...you are a funny guy if that helps.
Creating a false reality about Palin does help Obama.
Carter lead Reagan by 25 points in a TIME poll back in April of 1980. Reagan won by 10 points. That's a 35 point swing in seven months.
You have no proof whatsoever that the polls that you cite are an accurate prediction for what will happen 18 months from now, let alone that they are an accurate snapshot for where the candidates stand today.
Four years ago you thought that Rudy might be our nominee. Turns out that Rudy got what?...one delegate?
Creating a false reality about Palin does help Obama. You should consider your own warning.
__________________________________________________
A)iow...you wish she had not quit.
B) She did not leave the state in good hands when she quit.
Got it.
Interesting post.
I don’t like “registration” amnesty, or anchovies ;-)
I saw what Palin was being faced with dem operatives up here. They filed like 25 ethics violations, none were found to being of merit, but she had to spend her own money & time fighting it all. She still did the right thing.
Funny how you of the left liked Palin when she supported dem issues and attacked her soon as she was on the VP ticket.
I've watched Palin since early 90's when I first met her; she's one of a kind and one of the few political's judgment that I would trust. She has a record that so many in the media refuse to look over; all you know about is that she quit. You know very little about Palin.
Actually, when it's Juan "Lettuce" McBackStabbingAisleReachingRINO, we refer to the Presidential candidate as the "ass end" of the ticket.
Not only that, it is really funny how Palin is blamed for Miller’s loss by the spin Pa-TROLLS, when it was Miller who dropped like a stone AFTER he took the advice of Huckabee and Cornyn and distanced himself from Palin going on TV and saying he didn’t know if Palin was qualified to be President.
He was ahead before he did that. Miller depressed his own turnout. In a three way race,this was a classic “base” election. All Miller had to do was turn out the base (the portion of the vote who strongly supported Palin and he would have won. Miller lost by distancing himself from Palin. He took her picture down from his web site for a time in September and October, 2010 as I recall.
Sean Parnell, on the other hand has stated unambiguously that Sarah Palin is qualified to be President. He never disresespcted her. Palin elevated Parnell and endorsed him and was featured prominently on his campaign website.
Sean Parnell, Palin’s loyal Lieutenant and endorsee won 151,318 votes.
Joe Miller, who went on national TV and publicly doubted that Palin was qualified to be President, received 90,000 votes. At least 60,000 people who voted for Palin’s loyal Lieutenant Governor did not vote for Joe Miller. That is not Palin’s fault. She endorsed them both. It is Miller’s fault. And the most logical explanation is that Miller was seen by many Parnell voters as dissing Palin. So they voted for Murkowski to punish him or simply did not vote at all.
Exactly, Al. Keep confusing these trolls with the facts. Early polls are ALWAYS wrong. Even legitimate ones. (unlike PPP and Quinipiac)
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.