Sarah Palin Versus the Field with 2006 as a Barometer

05/07/2011 | Brices Crossroads

[Brices Crossroads]

I have observed that the polls and the news readers have taken to reminding us that Sarah Palin's nomination spells certain defeat for the GOP in 2012. Let's examine the question of Sarah Palin's prowess as a candidate, measured against the current field:

It has been noted that former Senator Rick Santorum won his Senate seat in a big GOP year (1994) and lost it big in a Democrat year (2006), sweeping in with one tide and out with another. This is evidence of weakness as a candidate. Let's examine the rest of this field, using 2006 as the barometer.

Tim Pawlenty won reelection in 2006 by the skin of his teeth, less that one half of one per cent. He is no political power house if, as an incumbent with no scandal, he can BARELY hold his seat against a no name Democrat challenger. Had it not been for the Green Party siphoning off Democrat votes, Pawlenty would have lost.

Huckabee, who was Lieutenant Governor, backed into the Governor's Mansion in 1996 when the previous governor went to jail. He managed to hold it through the salad years of Clinton's impeachment and Bush's early ascendancy, but the polls In Arkansas showed him losing badly in the big Democrat year of 2006, so he tucked tail and took his traveling medicine show out West to run for President.

Mitt Romney similarly saw his poll numbers so low that his defeat for reelection in 2006 was all but certain. Rather than face certain defeat and the end of his Presidential ambitions, Romney followed the same path as Huckabee.

So which candidate successfully swam AGAINST the tide of a big Democrat year in 2006 and registered two huge victories? SARAH PALIN. First, she dispatched Governor and three time U.S. Senator Frank Murkowski in the GOP primary by 51-19%. Then she entered the general election campaign. Unlike Pawlenty, who was aided by a challenge from the fringe left, Sarah Palin faced a third Party Challenge by a former GOPer, Andrew Halcro, who self financed a campaign against her and drew nearly 10% of the vote. Facing these adversities, and alone among the rising stars of the GOP, Sarah Palin swam hard against the big Democrat tsunami of 2006. She easily defeated popular two term former Governor Tony Knowles by 8% (the polls near election day said it was a dead heat). That, my friends, is empirical evidence of electoral prowess.

So when the Lamesteam media is telling us who is and who is not electable, based upon their early (and "cooked") polls let's follow the wise counsel of former Governor and 1928 Presidential Candidate Al Smith: "Let's look at the record." And, more to the point, let's force the media to look at the record.

If we do that, they will be forced to acknowledge that it is Sarah Palin--based not only on her great successes of 2010, but also on her tremendous "swim against the tide" in 2006-- who is by far the most formidable candidate the GOP could field in 2012.

[Ole Okie]

She is the one candidate I will support financially to the edge my own financial discomfort.

I feel the same way about Sarah.

And almost as strongly about Herman Cain.

[unseen1]

I don’t know about others but if Palin wasn’t on the ticket I would have stayed home. McCain was a loser and so was Obama.

[sickoflibs]

RE :”If we do that, they will be forced to acknowledge that it is Sarah Palin—based not only on her great successes of 2010, but also on her tremendous “swim against the tide” in 2006— who is by far the most formidable candidate the GOP could field in 2012.”(from post)

Speaking of that, have you told Palin this ? Does she think she is the ‘most formidable candidate the GOP could field in 2012’ ? (which wouldnt be saying much right now.) Is she running?

[MayflowerMadam]

“And, it’s disgusting and wrong but the media has done a really effective job of trashing her.”

It’s worse than “disgusting and wrong” — but the up-side is that she’s still standing, and strong. Anyone else, including all the mail candidates, would’ve crumbled within the first two months of the personal slaughter.

[AdaGray]

That would be a great ticket. Palin / Cain

[Mach9]

Trenchant.

[EveningStar]

And, it’s disgusting and wrong but the media has done a really effective job of trashing her.

It’s worse than “disgusting and wrong” — but the up-side is that she’s still standing, and strong. Anyone else, including all the mail candidates, would’ve crumbled within the first two months of the personal slaughter.

She's given her critics plenty of ammunition with:

• Her resignation
• The windfall profits tax against oil companies
• The Bridge to Nowhere - she was for it before she was against it
• When she was mayor of Wasilla, the Ice Rink to Nowhere - which cost the small town $1.3 million in legal fees

[org.whodat]

BS, not one word was said that was not gone over by the whole staff, you must think that war room photo of obummer was real.

[Candor7]

I do not believe , if our nation is to be saved, that the imprimature of a GOP candidate for president is bestowed by the MSM or by the Country Club Republicans ( RINOS).

Rather the successful GOP candidte would be reviled, defamed, and attacked by both the MSM and traduced by the Frankenrinos now trying to control the GOP out of existence.

By that test alone, one can feel and smell the insane fear of the MSM and of the GOP RINOfaction, when a Palin candidacy for president is mentioned in any public venue.

Sarah Palin has the hearts of patriotic Americans, yes she is rustic, just as was Congressman David Crockett in his day, another one reviled by establishment politicians of his day, who would have been an excellent president.

I am for Palin, and have been for years. Her record is hard won, and shows why she has so much appeal to Main Street America, she has paid her dues and now can triumph:

Governor Sarah Palin’s Record:
1) 2010 Record:
http://us4palin.com/accomplishments/master-list-of-governor-palins-2010-accomplishments/
2)2009 Record:
http://us4palin.com/accomplishments/master-list-of-governor-palins-2009-accomplishments/
3)Gubernatorial Accomplishments 2006 – 2008:
http://us4palin.com/accomplishments/gubernatorial-accomplishments-2006-2008/
4)Oil and Gas Conservation Commission 2003 – 2004:
http://us4palin.com/accomplishments/oil-and-gas-conservation-commission-accomplishments-2003-2004/
5)City of Wasilla, Mayor 1996 – 2002
http://us4palin.com/accomplishments/wasilla-mayor-1996-2002-2/
6) Wasilla City Council 1992 – 1996:
http://us4palin.com/accomplishments/wasilla-city-council-1992-1996-2/
7)KTUU Sportscasting 1987 – 1992
http://us4palin.com/accomplishments/ktuu-sportscasting/
8)Commercial Fishing Accomplishments:
http://us4palin.com/accomplishments/commercial-fishing-accomplishments/
9)Athletic Accomplishments:
http://us4palin.com/accomplishments/athletic-accomplishments
10) Hunting and Subsistence Fishing
http://us4palin.com/accomplishments/hunting-and-subsistence-fishing-accomplishments/
11) Marriage and Family
http://us4palin.com/accomplishments/marriage-family-parental-accomplishments/
Promotions******Sarah Palin Gear:
http://www.cafepress.com/northstarpromo

You and I have a rendezvous with destiny. We will preserve for our children this, the last best hope of man on earth, or we will sentence them to take the first step into a thousand years of darkness. If we fail, at least let our children and our children’s children say of us we justified our brief moment here. We did all that could be done.
-Ronald Reagan 1911 – 2004

WATCH THIS:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=8Ck4I_HPIQo

[RobbyS]

No way they could preview the energy of that delivery.

[RobbyS]

Of those now in the field, Cain is my choice.Be interesting to see him on stage with Obama.

[org.whodat]

LOL, Murphy planned the whole thing and rehearsed it over and over.

[Brices Crossroads]

“Alaska is a weird Republican state, but it is Republican. Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Massachusetts are otherwise.”

I think it is fair to compare Palin’s triumphs in Alaska with the electoral history of her opponents. Here’s why.

You have to draw a distinction between Presidential politics and state politics. In Presidential politics, Alaska always votes Republican (the only exception being 1964).

In the last 30 years, Alaska has had 7 governors, including the current one. Three were Democrats. Three were Republicans. One (Wally Hickel) was an independent. Since 1982, the Democrats controlled the governor’s mansion for sixteen of the 28 years. The Senate up until 2008 was GOP, only because Stevens and Murkowski got elected years ago and held the seats as incumbents. As soon as Stevens got too old and tarnished, in a big Democrat year (2008), he couldn’t hold his seat against a backbencher like Begich.

Minnesota, Massachusetts and Pennsylvania have voted for the Democrat in Presidential elections, since Reagan (who carried Massachusetts TWICE and Pennsylvania THREE times, including his “third term” in 1988).

In the last 30 years (since 1979), Minnesota has had three GOP governors, Quie, Carlson and Pawlenty. It has had only two DFL governors (Perpich and Dayton, the current one). The GOP has controlled the Governor’s mansion for 20 out of 30 years in Minnesota. At least on teh state level, Minnesota has been a more reliably GOP state than Alaska. For nearly 20 out of the last 30 years, one of Minnesota Senate seats was held by the GOP prolifers (Durenberger and Grams (who held it from 1978 until 2001). The other seat was held from 1978 until 1991 by GOP prolifer Rudy Boschwitz) and from 2003 to 2009 by GOP prolifer Norm Coleman. So, for 17 out of the last 30 years, the second Minnesota Senate seat was been held by GOP senators who are more socially conservative than Ted Stevens (a thirty year tenured proabort) and Lisa Murkowski (a decade long proabort). My point is that Pawlenty won in a state that is far friendlier to the GOP on the state level than Alaska is. I am not branding him a loser. (He won). His victory was much, much less impressive than Palin’s based on all the empirical and historical evidence.

I submit to you that you are wrong about Arkansas. It only started voting Republican in recent years because of seniority and peculiar regional issues. The Clintons, Bumpers and Pryors have maintained a hegemony over the state that is more personality than party...more seniority than ideology. Aside from home state and regional pride associated with Clinton’s two elections in 1992 and 1996 and Carter’s in 1976, Arkansas has been as reliably Republican as Alaska on a Presidential level. It has taken the changing of the guard to make it conservative on the state level as well. Absent his personal scandal, GOPer Tim Hutchinson would have held his senate seat in 2002 and in 2008. Huckabee’s electoral history in Arkansas is underwhelming, winning his first election (as an incumbent) with 60% of the vote against a “no name” challenger. His majority shrank to 53% in 2002, another big GOP year (again against another “no name” challenger)and he would have lost in 2006. Note as well that when he faced marquee candidate who was an incumbent (Dale Bumpers in the 1992 Senate race) he got squashed 60-40. Contrast that with Palin’s trouncing of popular Alaska politicians Murkowski and Knowles, who had been elected state wide a total of SIX times by lopsided margins. Palin versus Huckabee=No compairson.

Massachusetts has had three Democrat Governors and three GOP governors over the last 30 years. The other two elected Republicans Weld and Cellucci (not conservatives, but neither is Romney) must have done something right because they were succeeded by elected GOP governors. Romney would have lost reelection becasue of his mismanagement and he was succeeded by a Democrat liberal, who has further destroyed the state. Thanks, Mitt!

Santorum is a silly candidate (no 20 point loser for reelection deserves serious attention) whom I just don’t want to waste time on.

I know you support Palin. My point in this long post is to demonstrate that her victories in Alaska are materially more impressive than those posted by her 2012 competitors. It is she, not they, who is electable competitors.

[grey_whiskers]

Her critics have gone far beyond substance to horrible personal attacks including threats that she would be raped by black men in Manhattan

jokes on national shows about incest in her family

jokes by national late-night hosts about the statutory rape and impregnation of her under-aged daughter by a professional athlete

the sheriff with jurisdiction accusing her of causing the Gabrielle Giffords shooting, speaking in public, as sheriff, while cheerfully admitting he had no evidence

claiming that her youngest child, whose support she will have to maintain for the rest of his life, really belongs to someone else

calling for the death of that child

Shall I go on...?

And all this for someone who is now neither in public office, nor yet a declared candidate for office.

You're wasting your time and our bandwidth, troll.

[Polybius]

Let's examine the question of Sarah Palin's prowess as a candidate, measured against the current field:

Comparing anybody against the “current field” is meaningless. It is now May of the year before the Presidential election. Bill Clinton did not announce his first winning candidacy until October of the year before the Presidential election.

The “current field” of declared candidates is miniscule. The serious candidates we will be talking about 12 months from now are probably not even on the radar screen yet.

So which candidate successfully swam AGAINST the tide of a big Democrat year in 2006 and registered two huge victories? SARAH PALIN. First, she dispatched Governor and three time U.S. Senator Frank Murkowski in the GOP primary by 51-19%.

In politics, 2006 is Ancient History. In politics, even the summer of 2008 is Ancient History.

When a brand new candidate shows up in 2006 in Alaska or in 2008 on the national stage, people are willing to give that candidate a chance. Sarah Palin, on the national stage, started out with Favorables at 53% and Unfavorables at 22%.

As time passed, those Favorables sank ….. and sank ….. and sank. In January of 2011, she had Favorables at 38% and Unfavorables at 53%.

In November of 2006, the unknown Sarah Palin spanked Frank Murkowski.

In November of 2010, the candidate endorsed by the known Sarah Palin in her own home State of Alaska was spanked by Lisa Murkowski even though Lisa Murkowski ran as a WRITE-IN candidate.

That is NOT good. No matter how much you whitewash it, that is NOT good.

Losing to a WRITE-IN candidate is as bad as it can possibly get in politics.

Losing to a WRITE-IN candidate is practically unheard of.

Losing to a WRITE-IN candidate qualifies as “Ripley's Believe It or Not!” material.

The fact of the matter is that Sarah Palin is like anchovy pizza. A quarter of America just adores anchovy pizza. A quarter of America just adores Sarah Palin. Approximately 70% of America does not want an anchovy pizza anywhere near their dinner plate. Approximately 70% of America does not want Sarah Palin anywhere near the Oval Office.

Sarah Palin seems like a very nice and lovable lady. I would not mind having Sarah Palin as a neighbor or a friend or as an in-law.

Sarah Palin as the GOP nominee, however, gives me nightmares because I am 100% convinced that a Sarah Palin GOP nomination will absolutely GUARANTEE the reelection of Barack Hussein Obama and America simply cannot afford another four years of that Marxist as President of the United States.

FOX News Poll (February 7-9, 2011)

Question 3: I am going to read you a list of names. Tell me if you think that person would make a good President or not.

Sarah Palin:

.................YES.........NO.......DK.....Never heard of

ALL...........23%.......72%.........4%.......1%

Dem ...........7%........87%........5%.......1%

Rep ...........40%.......56%.......3%.......1%

Ind ...........25%........69%.......3%.......1%

[EveningStar]

based upon their early (and "cooked") polls

Do you have any hard evidence that the polls are cooked?

[Grunthor]

Until she says unequivically that she IS running, she isn’t running.

[trisham]

Sarah Is Dedicated
Click the Pic!

[Polybius]

exit polls showed Palin helped McCain. never saw an exit poll that showed otherwise.

Exit polls showed that Sarah Palin helped McCain among conservatives.

Exits polls showed that Sarah Palin hurt McCain with the other 60% of all voters who are not conservative.

November 5th, 2008 .... GOP vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin didn't do well in exit polls. Sixty percent of those polled said the Alaska governor is not qualified to be president, if necessary; 38 percent said she is.

4 Nov 2008 ..... Exit polls suggest the Republicans again won three out of four evangelical votes. That's worth about 40 million votes, ..... But the National Election exit poll showed Palin alienated most other voters. More than 60 per cent of voters said they thought she was a negative in the Republican campaign. McCain took a long-shot risk with her and paid the price.

Creating a false reality of Sarah Palin only helps Obama in 2012 and America cannot afford the risk of having Barack Hussein Obama in the Oval Office for four more years.

[itsahoot]

We have not fixed our primaries, and we don’t know why.

Two choices, the republicans are too stupid to do it...

The republican leadership has something to gain from it.....

I like the second better than the first, even if they do seem really stupid.