Posted on 09/30/2006 10:13:58 PM PDT by okstate
WASHINGTON — Democrats are slightly ahead of Republican incumbents in three election battleground states that will help determine control of the Senate, a series of polls released Sunday showed.
In Montana, Democrat Jon Tester had the support of 47 percent of registered voters, while incumbent Republican Sen. Conrad Burns had the support of 40 percent.
In Ohio, Democrat Rep. Sherrod Brown had 45 percent of registered voters, while incumbent Republican Sen. Mike DeWine had 43 percent.
In Tennessee, Democratic Rep. Harold Ford Jr. had 43 percent, and former Chattanooga Mayor Bob Corker, the Republican Senate nominee, had 42 percent.
Democrats probably must win all three races if they’re to take back control of the Senate on Nov. 7. They need to gain six seats overall, and these three are among the six seats held by Republicans that are considered most vulnerable.
Another Republican incumbent, Sen. George Allen of Virginia, was locked in a 43 percent to 43 percent dead heat with Democratic challenger James Webb, according to a poll released Friday by McClatchy Newspapers and MSNBC.
The surveys underscored how much these states are up for grabs and how much rides on the final five weeks of campaigning. The work of both major parties to get their supporters to turn out on Election Day could prove decisive. One in 10 voters remain undecided in Montana and Ohio, 12 percent in Virginia and 14 percent in Tennessee.
The polls were all conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc. for newspapers in each of the states — Lee Newspapers in Montana, the Cleveland Plain Dealer in Ohio and the Memphis Commercial Appeal and Chattanooga Times Free Press in Tennessee. Each state poll was of 625 registered voters and had an error margin of plus or minus four percentage points. The polls were taken between Monday and Thursday.
Mason-Dixon conducted a broader series of polls for McClatchy Newspapers and MSNBC in seven other closely fought Senate battleground states. Virginia results were released Friday, and the other six will be released Monday.
""The Dems are having a temporary spurt.
In about 2 weeks the Repubs surge and it doesn't stop until election day.
And we get an undeniable mandate from the public that the WOT is to continue with increased majorities.""
Award for most delusional post today.
""Don't bet on it. Forrester ran 5% down in all such polls and on election day lost by well over 10%.""
I agree. For all the urban legends here about polls favoring the DEMs, fact in in NJ, polls are biased in favor of the GOP.
No GOP candidate statewide since 2000 has broken 46%. Whether it was Candidate or Prez Bush, conservative Brett Schudler or RINOs Franks and Forrester. My guess Kean breaks 46% but falls short at 48-49%.
Lieberman is a DemonRat, not a Republican.
""it's already done...the polls are intentionally tweeked""
Prove it. Aside from the horrible Minnesota Poll: most polls are correct in predicting outcomes.
""Burns needs to run hard and hit on Testers support for repealing the patriot act."'
How do you know most Montanans dont favor repealing the Patriot Act?
3 out of four of those senate races are within the margin of error and I wouldn't worry too much. Election is 6 weeks away and a lot can happen until then.
Republicans need to come out in record numbers and those seats can remain in Republican camp.
Turnout is key.
""And the exit polls had Kerry winning.""
youre going to be quite surprised come Nov 8th
Name me a race where the major polling firms were wrong in calling the eventual winner? The only one I can think of off hand is Bob Smith in 1996.
""Sorry, won't wash. The more important thing is that the Dems knew about it too and they said nothing because of Barney FWANK""
Youre dreaming, the average voter isnt going ot look at it that way.
""Charlie Crist will win with 15 to 20 percent of the vote""
And that will be devasting to the Terry Schaivo wing of the GOP.
If you want to trace the begining of the GOPs problems with the American voter, it was the Schavio disaster.
Which conclusively supports the notion that the GOP's biggest problem is with their own base.
I.e., retrievable...if they can find it within themselves to do something right.
Funny how those margins of error always, always tilt to the left. Sorry, your explanation doesn't wash. The odds of ALL the major polls, MOE or not, being off to the left has already been calculated: 240,000 to one. It wasn't an accident, and Gallup ain't "accurate." It's easily manipulated. Ask the British.
That should have sent up a red flag. That's the problem you have when the Speaker of the House is too fat to get up off of his lazy a**.
A lot of polls called the Allard-Strickland race in Colorado incorrectly in 2002, I think. I don't remember other examples except maybe Mondale-Coleman in 2002, as well.
a) Ipsos-Reid has already had its internals analyzed and was found to be oversampling Dems by a whopping 10%. That alone would give victory to EVERY "VULNERABLE" REPUBLICAN, PLUS KEAN, PLUS STEELE and would make Kennedy and Harris quite competitive.
b) A month ago a pollster pleaded guilty to manipulating data vis-a-vis labeling "Democrats" as "Republicans" to achieve pre-set quota numbers. Surprise, surprise.
The problem is, on election day, the Republicans who do vote really are Republicans, and they vote in higher numbers than the Dems.
Allard-Strickland bounced back and forth, but youre right that Allard was consistenly under 50%, he got 51%.
Mondale wasnt in the race long enough for any poll to be accurate.
I completely agree.
Well that's a decent point, and I could only find two MN Senate 02 polls, one of which was the Star-Trib. So if you believed that anyway you have problems :)
"How do you know most Montanans dont favor repealing the Patriot Act?"
How do you know that they do? The patriot act and its usefulness in the war on terror is understood and supported by most Americans apart from DUmmies libs and paranoid freaks who indulge in conspiracy theories. Burns needs to run hard on this issue.
Minnesota poll stinks
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