Posted on 09/30/2006 10:13:58 PM PDT by okstate
WASHINGTON — Democrats are slightly ahead of Republican incumbents in three election battleground states that will help determine control of the Senate, a series of polls released Sunday showed.
In Montana, Democrat Jon Tester had the support of 47 percent of registered voters, while incumbent Republican Sen. Conrad Burns had the support of 40 percent.
In Ohio, Democrat Rep. Sherrod Brown had 45 percent of registered voters, while incumbent Republican Sen. Mike DeWine had 43 percent.
In Tennessee, Democratic Rep. Harold Ford Jr. had 43 percent, and former Chattanooga Mayor Bob Corker, the Republican Senate nominee, had 42 percent.
Democrats probably must win all three races if they’re to take back control of the Senate on Nov. 7. They need to gain six seats overall, and these three are among the six seats held by Republicans that are considered most vulnerable.
Another Republican incumbent, Sen. George Allen of Virginia, was locked in a 43 percent to 43 percent dead heat with Democratic challenger James Webb, according to a poll released Friday by McClatchy Newspapers and MSNBC.
The surveys underscored how much these states are up for grabs and how much rides on the final five weeks of campaigning. The work of both major parties to get their supporters to turn out on Election Day could prove decisive. One in 10 voters remain undecided in Montana and Ohio, 12 percent in Virginia and 14 percent in Tennessee.
The polls were all conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc. for newspapers in each of the states — Lee Newspapers in Montana, the Cleveland Plain Dealer in Ohio and the Memphis Commercial Appeal and Chattanooga Times Free Press in Tennessee. Each state poll was of 625 registered voters and had an error margin of plus or minus four percentage points. The polls were taken between Monday and Thursday.
Mason-Dixon conducted a broader series of polls for McClatchy Newspapers and MSNBC in seven other closely fought Senate battleground states. Virginia results were released Friday, and the other six will be released Monday.
Do you have any evidence for this at all, or is it just an assumption on your part?
We must also remind the people that the Supreme Court is still at stake here. I still think there is a chance that Stevens might retire since he was appointed by a Republican. HEck who knows maybe even Ginsburg might decide to retire. Anyway I hope that point being made in direct mail
09-30 Mason Dixon ...... Ford +1
09-11 Survey USA ....... Ford +3
09-08 Rasmussen .......... Corker +1
Granted some of these polls are older, but that's the trifecta of the three best pollsters in 2004 and they all agree that Tennessee is a tossup right now - nothing more and nothing less.
I heard that he has built a new team, so i think Corker must be learning.
Also Fords support is stuck in the low 40's, this means he has peaked with all the ads and deception and still in the 40s'.
Outside memphis, it is very hard to see people voting for Ford, Tennesseans are quite informed on politics and know about the corruot Ford family and wont be fooled by his ads, remember Gore got tossed out in 2000.
The election is there to be won by Corker quite comfortably, however he needs to get on the game and be focussed.
That's okay .. let DeWine sweat a little .. maybe he'll listen to more conservatives now, instead of the liberals in congress.
By Jupiter, that's an excellent observation!
A new ad is coming out, talking about the corruptness link to the Ford family.
This shows the surge is still moving forward. ford will not beat Corker, Burns is improving and Dewine is closer than he has been.
And the exit polls had Kerry winning.
M_D got many outcomes wrong in the last election and I would be suspect of these numbers. Incumbents can make up many points in the last weeks of an election - sorry to say that even a Murtha is likely to win re-election. I'll take Talent, Allen, DeWine, Santorum and Coker in the pool.
I understand that, and I would not expect anyone to base their House vote on one district in Florida. But, when you start adding up all the GOP "Abramhoff scandal-ridden" districts (Tom Delay, Bob Ney, etc. and Conrad Burns the GOP Sen. in Montana) and now this thing with Foley; it's not looking good for our team.
The "Foley Connection" is this: Denny Hastert and the GOP leadership knew about these e-mails since early '05. Yet, they did nothing. That's called a "cover-up".
So, what I'm saying is that people are probably getting a bad taste in their mouth for the GOP over all. I'm a dyed-in-the-wool Ronald Reagan-style Conservative and I'm getting pretty sick of the do-nothing, RINO loving, corrupt Republican Party myself.
All coming together as the slimy pollsters start to adjust their polls to get in line with reality for election day so they can claim to be "accurate."
And let's please remember Gallup's organization was infiltrated by British MI-5 in WW II and produced bogus polls without even knowing it.
And lets not forget Gallup in 1996 was one of ALL the pollsters who was dramatically off to the left and was guilty of oversampling Dems.
It's the same story, over and over. These guys have badly flawed methods that never seem to show up until election eve, when they hustle to get in line with something close to the real electoral verdict.
Actually, it's bogus. We have no indication that GOP vote will be "depressed." There is one small category of non-web older voters that apepars to be lukewarm, but all the other categories we poll have the GOP doing about what we expect, which means victory. In one key group, we know that Ken Blackwell, for example, is polling VERY high for a Republican among blacks. NOT good news for Dems---any Dem. Most people don't split votes.
Trust me, the fact that this came out in Sept. is NOT a sign of strength on the part of the Dems.
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