[DontBelieveAugPolls]

Name me a race where the major polling firms were wrong in calling the eventual winner? The only one I can think of off hand is Bob Smith in 1996.

[LS]

1) Spencer Abraham (MI), as I recall, was down deep double digits in the last poll of his last victory and won. 2) They called the winner right in 1996 . . . but were ALL massively off, and all in Clinton's favor. Strange, no? Randomness would suggest one of them just by accident would be off in Dole's favor.

2) I don't carry around the polling results of every poll on some note card from previous races. I think they missed a ton. But better yet, I'll give you MY predictions, made right here on FR, before the 2004 and 2006 elections for the key races (I didn't bother with those that were "sure thing."): in 2002, I called every single Senate race correctly (including Allard, which, I think, all the pollsters had losing) except Thune. He lost by 500 votes.

In 2004, I called the electoral count at 300 for Bush (I missed only PA). I called every single contested Senate seat correctly except Salazar in Colorado (again, a very, very close vote). So out of all the contested elections in two election cycles, I've been right on all but two races. Match that against Sabato or Charlie Cook or most pollsters.

And I'm telling you the GOP will gain at least one seat each in the House and Senate.