Posted on 12/20/2005 2:01:37 PM PST by Sonny M
If China graduates more than eight times the number of engineers that the United States does, is it thrashing America in the technology race?
That's what many scientists and politicians are suggesting in the wake of an October report by the highly regarded National Academies. Its numbers are startling: China adds 600,000 new engineers a year; the US, only 70,000. Even India, with 350,000 new engineers a year, is outdoing the US, the study suggests.
But that gloomy assessment depends on how one defines engineers: Those with at least four years of college training? Or do their ranks include two-year graduates of technical schools and even, in China's case, auto mechanics?
By making more specific comparisons, US competitiveness, as measured by newly minted engineers, is not eroding as fast as many say - if it's eroding at all, according to a Duke University study released last week. "Inconsistent reporting of problematic engineering graduation data has been used to fuel fears that America is losing its technological edge," the study states. "A comparison of like-to-like data suggests that the US produces a highly significant number of engineers, computer scientists, and information technology specialists, and remains competitive in global markets."
In some ways, experts say, today's debate over engineers reflects the cold-war controversy over the so-called missile gap in which the Soviets' advantage in missile numbers was counterbalanced to some extent by the quality and accuracy of America's nuclear arsenal.
"During the 'missile gap' and post-missile gap until the fall of the Berlin Wall the same sorts of issues were being raised about Russia as are being raised now about China and India," says Frank Huband, of the American Society for Engineering Education in Washington.
Is there an "engineer gap" today? Many groups say yes. In a report last summer, the Business Roundtable and 14 other corporate groups called for doubling the number of graduating US engineers, citing China's lead.
"As others have copied our blueprint, we have departed from it," said House minority leader Nancy Pelosi in a speech last month. "They are investing heavily in improving their educational systems, and creating world-class universities, particularly in science and technology. We have fewer students studying math and science."
But some researchers say such fears are overblown and argue that US corporations are trying to cloud the issue as they go in search of cheaper engineering talent overseas.
"Business groups have been very smart about trying to change the subject from outsourcing and offshoring to the supposed shortfall in US engineers," says Ron Hira, an outsourcing expert at Rochester Institute of Technology. "There's really no serious shortage of engineers in this country."
India provides the clearest example of how the numbers can be interpreted differently. The 350,000 engineers that it supposedly graduated last year is almost certainly false. After publishing that number in October, the National Academies revised it downward to 200,000 in a note issued last month. The Duke study pegs the number at 215,000, but it also points out that nearly half of those are three-year diplomas - not the four-year degrees counted in the US.
More four-year diplomas than India
Last year, the US awarded bachelor's degrees to 72,893 engineering students, according to the American Society for Engineering Education. But using India's more inclusive definition, the Duke study finds the US handed out 137,437 bachelor's degrees last year, more than India's 112,000. The US number is far more impressive in rela-tive terms, since India has more than three times as many people.
China's numbers are more problematic because its government does not break them down. In its revised figures, the National Academies reduced the Chinese total from 600,000 to 500,000. The Duke study pegs the total at 644,106, as reported by the Chinese Ministry of Education. But the study also points out that, as with India, the Chinese total includes engineering graduates with so-called "short cycle degrees" that represent three years or less of college training.
"China includes in its count a lot of graduates - including auto mechanics - who would not be included as engineers in the US or many other nations," says Gary Gereffi, a coauthor of the study and a professor of sociology who directs Duke's Center on Globalization, Governance, and Competitiveness.
A press spokesman of the Chinese embassy in Washington declined comment, and its education office there did not respond.
China still graduated 351,537 engineers with four-year degrees. That's 2-1/2 times the US total (although China has four times the US population).
For its part, the National Academies stands by its report, even after its revisions. "I don't think we believe at all that these new numbers change the ultimate recommendations we have," says Deborah Stine, of the National Academies. "The US is well behind other countries."
Back toward 1986 graduation peak
The number of US engineering graduates peaked in 1986, fell back, then has slowly built back up since the late 1990s, says Daniel Bateson, of the Engineering Workforce Commission.
While US numbers don't approach China's, some experts say the quality of US graduates remains superior. A McKinsey Global Institute study last summer found that only 10 percent of Chinese engineers and 25 percent of Indian engineers were capable of competing for outsourced work.
Other experts say what's needed is a greater focus on improving engineering education. "The basis for US technological success so far hasn't been because of the raw numbers of people we have, but the particular type of thinking and capability they bring to the table," says Richard Miller, president of Franklin W. Olin College of Engineering in Needham, Mass.
Not to moron hysterics at UnChristian NOT Science Monitor. Comparing a mature developed economic like the US to a developing economy like China is an intellectually infantile exercise. It is merely an attempt by liars to knowingly use misleading factoids to misrepresent reality. In short. A LIE.
I'm an engineer (PE) and I'm okay, I work all night and I work all day. ;)
Come to Midland. Everyone is hiring.
I just skimmed the article and didn't see this issue there but it seems to me that I have read recent articles in which U.S. engineering work has been transferred abroad. If this is a real trend, then why would Americans be interested in training for a job that is just going to be outsourced abroad? Makes no sense to me.
Seems a straightforward conclusion. Even if we are current, and maintaining an adequate balance today...we could be looking at a demographic Graying problem...i.e., an implosion of domestic...and loyal U.S.... talent when that bulge of residual engineers and scientists retire.
Gee Johnnie, what a (((yawn))) clever putdown...
but do you ever offer any substantive commentary?
Stop subsidizing the education of lawyers, business majors, political science majors, and psychology majors.
My interpretation of the article was that they were saying the comparisions are NOT equal, and in fact kind of false.
I.E. a engineering degree in china or india is more likely less then the US standard, and that would mean that india and chinas numbers are inflated, more over, that the idea of a big gap is a myth being perpetuated.
If you think that is a lie, then feel free to correct them on it with specifics.
FWIT, I've been saying for a few years, that the comparisions between us and them are bull, and the numbers being tossed around, inflated and rigged.
The MSM always reports everything correctly, as this article demonstrates, therefore it would be silly of you to disbelieve that all our engineering jobs are being outsourced.
True, China and India each graduate more engineers by far than the US. They are also beginning to catch up in patents for new inventions. It is just a matter of time. But, the other side of the coin says that there is no shortage of engineers and scientists in the US. Many graduates of science or engineering programs do something else for a living: the real money is elsewhere.
Here, here! If we would favor those professions that actually contribute to the well-being of the country, we would be in much better shape. Yes, there are good lawyers, business major, etc., who do contribute, but a lot of those degrees are awarded to leeches on society.
At the risk of inviting additional flames, I'd like to see more emphasis in grades 1-12 on math and science and educating our most gifted students and less emphasis on bilingual, remedial, and special education. Yes, I think we should educate all of our children. The problem is that a disproportionate amount is spent in places where it will never pay off. In my district, the single biggest line item is for bilingual services. Imagine if that money were spent on chem labs, etc. In fact, just using it to reduce class size would go a LONG way toward helping ALL kids.
I think you should also factor in the relative rate of cheating known to be a scandal in the universities in China. How good are they really is a serious question.
The gap might be nonexistent, for now, or it might be real.. But it never hurts to reexamine your own situation, and question it.
The price of liberty, is eternal vigilance.
Seems like a lot of people, like MNJohnnie just can't stand to pay that price...the notion that we have to address a problem hurts their brains...
Several things worth mentioning.
1. Quantity is not the same as quality. I'd certainly like to see more engineer and scientists in the US, but until we know the skill relative skill levels, comparing numbers doesn't show the whole picture. One advantage that we have here, IMO, is that our engineers are generally more innovative and creative. I think that's because our culture encourages it much more than the Chinese culture where students are encouraged to conform.
2. That said, I fear that the general quality of eng/sci grads here may be slipping. The reason is that many of our best and brightest are smart enough to look at the job market and see that a career in engineering or science tops out pretty quickly. The big money is made by the MBA's who exploit the engineers and the lawyers who sue them.
Another "gem" of genius from this stupid congress critter.
1. We have already made the investment, and developed the best University system in the world......and it attracted the best and brightest technical folks from all over the world...
2. We are slowly destroying our University system, by turning it over to the lunatic left to administer..
3. From my 37 year career with a major HIGH technology corporation --- I'm was not impressed with the ability of "engineers" from either India or China... I'm certain with time - they will improve.
4. The best way to encourage our own youth to go into Engineering, is to convince them there will be a NEED for their services and the income will justify the effort..
Semper Fi
Man, that is a wicked tag line....
I'm not sure if we know each other but...
My father is a former engineer, my mother a former lawyer, and I am an MBA.
LOL.
Go figure (for what its worth, my father would probably agree with you on the MBA part).
Faculty Leaders:
Dr.Gary Gereffi
Vivek Wadhwa
Primary Student Researchers:
Ben Rissing,Kiran Kalakuntla,
Soomi Cheong,Qi Weng,
Nishanth Lingamneni
www.soc.duke.edu/resources/public_sociology/duke_outsourcing.pdf
The number of graduates is rising rapidly in China. With their estimates for 4-year Bachelor's of 137,437 for the US and 351,537 for China in 2004, there does not seem to be a cause for complacency. While a lack of English language skills may mean that the Chinese engineers can't be used for outsourcing directly, they can be effectively used in China under a cadre of US-trained engineers and managers.
India appears to be strong only in computer science and information technology, not in other engineering areas.
Lastly, a lot of their argument hinges on Indian and Chinese 3-year degrees being equivalent to our associates degrees from community colleges and technical schools. I'm not so sure, since the level of mathematics and science education in secondary schools in India and China is likely to be the equivalent of a full year ahead of the US.
Speaking as an electrical engineer, IMHO its a societal thing. American society values occupations that manage and redistribute wealth but not those who create wealth. Lawyers, and brokers are deitified but engineers, designers, and the trades are seen as "geeky."
Its mainly an Anglosphere thing. US, Canada, Australia, UK, NZ. For instance lawyers just do not have that much status in the rest of the world. There are 1,000,000 lawyers in the US which is about 70% of the worlds supply for a nation with about 25% of the worlds economy.
Germany and Japan are the opposite. Engineering and design are the elite jobs there and it shows. BMW and Sony anyone? Siemens and Matsushima?
China and India also value design and engineering and it shows.
There is one thing that will keep the US on top. Creativity. We are the most creative in the world.
You reap what you sow.
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