Skip to comments.Thunderclouds in China ... A Storm is Brewing ...
Posted on 07/15/2005 10:29:12 AM PDT by joanie-f
Below are some excerpts of observations I have posted on other recent threads that I will continue to post when appropriate, because I believe that Chinas military build-up may soon prove to be the most ominous threat we face ... Islamic terrorism notwithstanding. (Thank you for your continuing and untiring efforts -- represented by the preceding link -- to document the unparalleled China threat, Jeff Head.)
An article by Bill Gertz in the Washington Times (6/26/05) stated flatly that there's a growing consensus that at some point in the mid-to-late '90s, there was a fundamental shift in the sophistication, breadth and re-sorting of Chinese defense planning
Lets review what we (at least we here on this forum) already know, but may occasionally need to be reminded of:
A U.S. State Department document released in early 2002 proved that during the years 1993 to 2000 the most successful Chinese espionage operation in history occurred. The document revealed that Hughes Space and Communications Company violated U.S. national security no fewer than 120 times by deliberately sending sensitive missile and satellite technology directly to the Chinese army. And at no time did Hughes seek or receive a license or other written government approval from the appropriate legal sources to provide sensitive military technology to our militaristic ideological enemy.
Chinese General Shen Rongjun (a leader in the Chinese Armys Commission on Science, Technology and Industry for National Defense) led the infiltration of U.S. missile and satellite technology during the Clinton administration. General Shen was directly involved in the transfer of technology from Hughes to Chinese operatives, and the Clinton Administration not only turned the other way, but most probably played a large part in engineering the transfer.
Because of then Secretary of State Warren Christophers concern that Hughes might be selling sensitive missile and satellite technology to China, and because a State Department license was necessary in order to affect such a transfer, Clinton, ignoring vehement opposition from the Defense Department, the CIA, and the National Security Agency, transferred the power to issue those licenses to the Commerce Department, headed by (the now unfortunately deceased) Ron Brown.
The bulk of the huge transfer of sensitive technology occurred immediately after General Shen met one-on-one with Brown in Beijing. (An aside: when Brown was head of the DNC, his committee was fined for knowingly and willingly accepting donations from Chinese sources.)
Another all-too-familiar aside: Browns funeral was the tragedy that inspired the Presidents instantaneous laughter/tears performance that will go down in history as the captured-on-film hypocrisy of the century.
General Shen promised satellite contracts to Hughes if technology transfers continued, and Hughes CEO Michael Armstrong did some arm-twisting in order to be able to accede to Shens demands. He threatened to withdraw his significant financial support in the upcoming presidential campaign if Clinton did not see to it that a waiver was issued for the transfers. The waiver was indeed issued and enormous amounts of detailed satellite encryption were summarily handed over to China.
Similar circumventing of legal channels for the transfer of missile guidance and satellite technology occurred in technology transfers from Loral Corporation to the Chinese.
Interesting factoid: Bernard Schwartz, the chairman of Loral, was the largest individual contributor to the democrat party in 1997.
Clinton's transfer allowed the Chinese army to acquire advanced U.S. satellite and missile technology for military purposes. Hughes satellites provided the Chinese army with secure communications that are virtually invincible in ground combat and provide extraordinarily accurate navigation for strike bombers and missiles. Hughes also provided the PLA with advanced technology that is essential for the design and manufacture of missile control systems and missile nose cones. The transfers from Hughes allowed China to develop a new generation of ICBMs and SLBMs that, without the help of the Clinton administration, would have taken China a decade or more to develop on its own.
In 1994, under similar circumstances, sensitive machine tools from an Ohio McDonnell Douglas high-tech factory machine tools that had been used to make ICBMs and to build B-1, C-17, and F-15 aircraft -- wound up in a Chinese factory that is known to produce Silkworm missiles. Just as occurred with the Hughes technology, the export of these sensitive machine tools required a government-issued export license. And, just as occurred with the Hughes technology, the licensing process was circumvented due to pressures from within the Clinton administration.
The Clinton administration also relaxed controls on the export of U.S. supercomputers. No efforts have been made to verify whether any of the forty-plus supercomputers that have been exported to China are being used in nuclear weapons work.
President Clinton also turned a blind eye to Chinas actual theft of sensitive W-88 miniaturization nuclear warhead technology. And possession of this once uniquely American technology now allows China to affix up to ten nuclear warheads on a single missile, with each of the ten aimed at a different target. The W-88 warhead is light compared to other nuclear warheads, but its power is more than ten times that of the bomb dropped on Hiroshima.
Interesting factoid: five Chinese satellite launches (a few of which Loral was partnered in) failed between Sept of 1991 and August of 1996. As of August of 1998, many more have been launched ... and none have failed.
Clinton hosted more than a hundred fundraising dinners in the White House in which he solicited, and received, huge financial contributions from our ideological enemies with China sitting highest on that infamous list of foreign political supporters. Of course the acceptance of such campaign contributions is a federal crime. But the financial illegality of the Clinton strategy pales in comparison to the resulting threat to our national sovereignty and to our very existence.
So, as a result of Clintons overriding of normal State/Intelligence/Pentagon procedures, a series of illicit export control waivers were issued that allowed his top campaign donors to sell sensitive missile and satellite technology to China technology that would result in this country being placed in the most precarious position in its history.
As if that werent treason enough, Mr. Clinton was simultaneously road-blocking the deployment of an American missile defense system, leaving us vulnerable to the very ICBMs that he was helping our enemies produce. American military manpower, materiel, and equipment (especially ships and aircraft) were also cut by roughly one-half during the eight years of the Clinton administration.
Also, on countless occasions, Mr. Clinton refused to impose sanctions on Beijing when intelligence discovered that it was sharing sensitive military technologies, most likely pilfered from America, with the terrorist states of North Korea, Iran and Pakistan.
Clinton was very successful in hiding both the results of his illegal waivers and the growing long-range missile threat to our safety and security until 1998, when our illustrious president assured us that North Korea didnt have ballistic missile capabilities and only days later North Korea launched a missile over Japan that came down off the coast of Alaska.
A direct 1998 quote from the venerable Senator James Inhofe (R-OK): It is apparent that the ongoing cover-up of Chinas theft of nuclear secrets is one of the greatest national security scandals in American history. Secret files on virtually every technology used in the design of our nuclear arsenal have been compromised [and] it is factual to say that President Clinton knew he was giving our missile technology to North Korea as well as to China.
Also included in the technology transfer to China during the Clinton administration:
(1) five decades of information garnered from nuclear testing
(2) detailed data related to the design, use and power of nuclear warheads such as the W-56, W-62, W-76, W-87 -- for MX land-based missiles -- and W-88 -- for Trident submarine-based missiles
(3) sensitive details about the neutron bomb
(4) sensitive details about EMP (electromagnetic pulse) weapons
(5) manufacturing specifications for re-entry vehicles
(6) space radar capabilities
(7) computer programs that simulate nuclear tests
Today we are aware that China has at least twenty ICBMs aimed at American cities, and many Pentagon and Intelligence Department officials firmly believe that they are ready to launch them, should we attempt to come to the defense of Taiwan when China seeks to re-absorb that island sometime in the next two years.
Another recent Bill Gertz article in the Washington Times (6/22/05) reported the recent success of a submarine-launched ballistic missile test, and stated that US intelligence determined the missile to be a JL-2.
The Gertz article claims that Intelligence isnt certain whether the launch took place from a Type 094 nuclear sub, or from an older sub that was modified to accommodate missile launch testing.
The design and construction of both the technologically sophisticated JL-2 missile and the Type 094 sub almost certainly benefited from the Clinton administrations treasonous activities listed above. Chinese secrecy about its missile and sub programs has been of highest priority, and extraordinarily effective, for the past five or six years especially.
According to various reliable sources (The Claremont Institute, the Federation of American Scientists, and globalsecurity.com among them), there is a strong likelihood that both the new missile and the new sub are now fully operational. So it appears that China may well now possess a missile with a sufficient range (~5,000 miles), capable of carrying a single 1 MT warhead, or half a dozen MIRVs each with a 150KT yield, and an extraordinarily sophisticated anti-missile defense system as well as a new sophisticated class of nuclear-powered sub from which to launch it.
The thought that China could launch a missile from a sub sitting in its own territorial waters, capable of targeting any location in the US is frightening enough. But such capability would also certainly allow the PLA to detonate such a warhead(s) 250-300 miles above the US and set in motion a mighty powerful EMP (electromagnetic pulse), sufficient to render this country incapable of defending itself from successive attacks targeted at our cities and strategic military targets. President Reagan, especially, shared that concern, and, as a result, a substantial part of his Strategic Defense Initiative was focused on the possibility of an atmospheric EMP attack.
Although an EMP attack wouldnt necessarily cause immediate massive death and destruction, it would weaken us dramatically and render us vulnerable to successive (possibly immediate) attacks on our population itself. An EMP explosion would make dead (and irreparable for months, if not years) just about everything dependent upon electricity. Our entire infrastructure would be rendered useless. Imagine our nation continuing to survive without access to reliable transportation, with our financial systems unplugged, all manner of telecommunications severed, energy and energy distribution systems crippled As for our ability to retaliate, our weapons/missile systems and the ability to communicate between military departments and troop deployments would also be severely limited, if not non-existent.
Regarding the belief, by some, that our military is appropriately hardened against such an EMP attack, former CIA chief James Woolsey last year commended the congressional Commission to Assess the Threat to the United States from EMP Attack for its years of research performed to evaluate our ability to survive such an attack and for its ominous conclusion that EMP is a viable method of attack that could lead to the defeat of the U.S. by either a rogue state or a burgeoning military superpower.
Excerpt from the commissions report:
The end of the Cold War relaxed the discipline for achieving EMP survivability within the Department of Defense, and gave rise to the perception that an erosion of EMP survivability of military forces was an acceptable risk.
EMP simulation and test facilities have been mothballed or dismantled, and research concerning EMP phenomena, hardening design, testing, and maintenance has been substantially decreased. However, the emerging threat environment, characterized by a wide spectrum of actors that include near-peers, established nuclear powers, rogue nations, sub-national groups, and terrorist organizations that either now have access to nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles or may have such access over the next 15 years have combined to place the risk of EMP attack and adverse consequences on the US to a level that is not acceptable.
Current policy is to continue to provide EMP protection to strategic forces and their controls; however, the end of the Cold War has relaxed the discipline for achieving and maintaining that capability within these forces. The Department of Defense must continue to pursue the strategy for strategic systems to ensure that weapons delivery systems of the New Triad are EMP survivable, and that there is, at a minimum, a survivable thin-line of command and control capability to detect threats and direct the delivery systems.
IMO, the lack of focus on the EMP scenario is one of our leaderships most deadly oversights. And it is just another example of a post-Reagan refocus that has lost its sense of priority. In addition to being the primary catalyst in the bankrupting of the then-Soviet Union, Reagans Strategic Defense Initiative was also extraordinarily forward-looking in that it acknowledged the horrific threat that an atmospheric EMP attack represented, and it took the first steps toward preparing for the prevention of, and maintaining the ability to respond to, such an attack. Yet, since Reagan left office, our leaders, each in turn, have turned their focus away from what may eventually prove to be the most menacing, and most easily perpetrated, threat we face.
The following observations are merely a microscopically small sampling of countless warnings from intelligent, informed patriots who are attempting to issue a much-needed wake-up call, to the western world in particular.
In addition to the excerpted comments below, perhaps the most comprehensive collection of facts regarding the potential threat that an EMP attack would entail is contained in the following guide:
Pertinent comments of Sen. Jon Kyl (R-AZ), highly respected member of the Senate Judiciary Committee, and the man most believed would have been appointed chairman of that all-important committee, had Arlen Specter not retained his seat, in Unready For This Attack:
An electromagnetic pulse (EMP) attack on the American homeland is one of only a few ways that the United States could be defeated by its enemies -- terrorist or otherwise. And it is probably the easiest. A single Scud missile, carrying a single nuclear weapon, detonated at the appropriate altitude, would interact with the Earth's atmosphere, producing an electromagnetic pulse radiating down to the surface at the speed of light. Depending on the location and size of the blast, the effect would be to knock out already stressed power grids and other electrical systems across much or even all of the continental United States, for months if not years.
Pertinent comments of Paul M. Weyrich, Chairman and CEO of the Free Congress Foundation, in Electromagnetic Pulse: An Avoidable Disaster:
The very day the 9/11 Commission report was issued another report, that may one day prove itself to be even more important to our security, also was released. The Report of the Commission to Assess the Threat to the United States from Electromagnetic Pulse Attack stated that our country has the ability to prevent the worst-case scenarios from occurring in this age of international terrorism.
If a nuclear blast occurred in high altitudes over our country, people would not be killed by the fallout from the blast itself. The most serious and far-reaching damage would be done by the EMP emissions. The result? According to the report, the 'electromagnetic shock' that disrupts or damages electronics-based control systems, sensors, communication systems, protective systems, computers, and similar devices Its damage or functional disruption occurs essentially simultaneously over a very large area. One scenario outlined by the EMP Commission predicted that a blast over Chicago, where 70% of our country's total power generation occurs, would instantly impact cities as distant as New York and Washington, D.C.
steps taken now can prepare us to deal with, even thwart, the mayhem caused by terrorists and rogue nations. I hope we have some lawmakers who share [my] concern in preserving our American way of life for future generations. If we do, then I expect Congress will delve further into the work of the EMP Commission and its unsettling findings.
Pertinent comments by Jack Spencer, Senior Policy Analyst for Defense and National Security in the Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis Institute for International Studies at The Heritage Foundation in The Electromagnetic Pulse Commission Warns of an Old Threat with a New Face:
Little has been done to safeguard U.S. electrical systems from the EMP threat beyond simply protecting the nation's nuclear war-fighting infrastructure -- and even that is not as secure as it once was. During the Cold War, only the Soviet Union -- and to a lesser extent China -- had the ability to mount an EMP attack against the United States
An EMP attack damages all unprotected electronic equipment within the blast's line of sight (the EMP's footprint on the earth's surface). The size of the footprint is determined by the altitude of the explosion. The higher the altitude, the greater the land area affected. A Scud-type ballistic missile launched from a vessel in U.S. coastal waters and detonated at an altitude of 95 miles could degrade electronic systems across one-quarter of the United States. A more powerful missile launched from North Korea could probably deliver a warhead 300 miles above America--enough to degrade the electronic systems across the entire continental United States.
Furthermore, a nuclear weapon with only a low explosive yield could be designed to generate a strong EMP. In fact, crude weapons with low yields, such as those used against Japan in World War II, would have ample power to generate an EMP over the entire continental United States.
an EMP attack on America is a serious possibility and one for which the United States is unprepared. While the world focuses on WMDs and ballistic missiles, it is imperative that an EMP attack be considered with equal weight. The profound impact that an EMP attack would have on a developed, modern, electronically oriented country forces nations in similar positions to reassess their own protection against such attack.
Pertinent comments of Frank J. Gaffney, Jr., President of the Center for Security Policy, in EMP: Americas Achilles Heel:
If Osama bin Laden -- or the dictators of North Korea or Iran -- could destroy America as a twenty-first century society and superpower, would they be tempted to try? Given their track records and stated hostility to the United States, we have to operate on the assumption that they would. That assumption would be especially frightening if this destruction could be accomplished with a single attack involving just one relatively small-yield nuclear weaponand if the nature of the attack would mean that its perpetrator might not be immediately or easily identified.
Unfortunately, such a scenario is not far-fetched. According to a report issued last summer by a blue-ribbon, Congressionally-mandated commission, a single specialized nuclear weapon delivered to an altitude of a few hundred miles over the United States by a ballistic missile would be capable of causing catastrophe for the nation. The source of such a cataclysm might be considered the ultimate weapon of mass destruction (WMD)yet it is hardly ever mentioned in the litany of dangerous WMDs we face today. It is known as electromagnetic pulse (EMP).
the attributes that make us a military and economic superpower without peer are also our potential Achilles heel. In todays world, wracked by terrorists and their state sponsors, it must be asked: Might not the opportunity to exploit the essence of Americas strengththe managed flow of electrons and all they make possiblein order to undo that strength prove irresistible to our foes? This line of thinking seems especially likely among our Islamofascist enemies, who disdain such man-made sources of power and the sorts of democratic, humane and secular societies which they help make possible. These enemies believe it to be their God-given responsibility to wage jihad against Western societies in general and the United States in particular.
Calculations that might lead some to contemplate an EMP attack on the United States can only be further encouraged by the fact that our ability to retaliate could be severely degraded by such a strike. In all likelihood, so would our ability to assess against whom to retaliate. Even if forward-deployed U.S. forces were unaffected by the devastation wrought on the homeland by such an attack, many of the systems that transmit their orders and the industrial base necessary to sustain their operations would almost certainly be seriously disrupted.
From 1998 Congressional Hearings, Committee on National Security, Military Research and Development Subcommittee:
Pertinent comments of Gen. Robert T. Marsh, USAF retired, and Chairman of the Presidents Commission on Critical Infrastructure Protection:
This commission is charged with assessing threats to our critical infrastructures and their vulnerabilities. The President identified eight infrastructures as our national life support system. They are: telecommunications, electric power systems, oil and gas transportation and storage, banking and finance, transportation, water supply systems, and emergency services such as medical, police, fire and rescue, and continuity of government services.
The first line of the Executive order says it all: Certain national infrastructures are so vital that their incapacity or destruction would have a debilitating impact on the defense or economic security of the United States.
Pertinent comments of Dr. George W. Ulrich, Deputy Director of Defense Special Weapons Agency:
A megaton-class thermonuclear explosion about 250 miles over Omaha, Nebraska, would emit an Electromagnetic Pulse large and strong enough to collapse information society from coast to coast, at the speed of light nearly the entire contiguous 48 States would be affected with potentially damaging EMP experience from Boston to Los Angeles, from Chicago to New Orleans.
Likewise, potential military vulnerability may be growing. The revolution from military affairs has brought with it a much greater dependence on information technologies. The ability to generate raw data, process it into usable form, and communicate information to the right people and systems is critical to military success, yet the sensors, computers and communications assets essential to this revolution could be vulnerable.
high-altitude EMP does not distinguish between military and civilian systems. Unhardened infrastructure systems, such as commercial power grids, telecommunication networks, as we have discussed before, remain vulnerable to widespread outages and upsets due to high-altitude EMP. While DOD hardens their assets it deems vital, no comparable civilian programs exist. Thus the detonation of one or a few high-altitude nuclear weapons could result in serious problems for the entire U.S. civil and commercial infrastructure.
Pertinent comments of Rep. Curt Weldon (R-PA), Chairman of the Military Research and Development Subcommittee:
95 percent of our military communications go through commercial channels. Are we confident that EMP will not disable or disrupt these commercial communications systems? How confident are we that the military could continue to communicate effectively if commercial systems were disrupted or completely disabled by EMP? How thoroughly do we protect our weapons systems from EMP? Are we confident they will continue to function?
Pertinent comments of Dr. Gary L. Smith, Director of Applied Physics Laboratory, Johns Hopkins University:
The area of the Earth's surface directly illuminated by EMP is determined entirely by the height of burst. All points on the Earth's surface within the horizon, as seen from the burst point, will experience EMP effects It is not terribly burst-strength dependent; almost any burst will produce that kind of radiation. The strength of the field will change at the various radii from the burst point, but it will cover the same area regardless of the strength of the burst.
The amplitude, duration and polarization of the wave depend on the location of the burst, the type of weapon, the yield, and the relative position of the observer. The electric field resulting from a high-altitude nuclear detonation can be on the order of 50 kilovolts per meter with a rise time on the order of 10 nanoseconds and a decay time to half maximum of about 200 nanoseconds. It is very fast.
It is important to point out, however, that the peak amplitude, signal rise rate, and duration of the EMP wave are not uniform over the illuminated area; the largest peak intensities of the EMP signal occur in that region of the illuminated area where the line of sight to the burst is perpendicular to the Earth's magnetic field. At the edge of the illuminated area, that is, farthest towards the horizon as seen from the burst, the peak field intensity will be about half of the maximum levels, and the EMP fields will be somewhat longer lasting than in the areas where the peak intensities are the largest.
Second, the area covered by an EMP signal can be immense. As a consequence, large portions of extended power and communications networks, for example, can simultaneously be put at risk. Such far-reaching effects are peculiar to EMP. Neither natural phenomena nor any other nuclear weapon effects are so widespread.
Pertinent comments of Dr. Lowell Wood, noted physicist at Lawrence Livermore Laboratory:
the basic point is that essentially all of our conventional military capability and all of our civilian infrastructure is highly vulnerable to EMP damage. The dollar numbers in the civilian infrastructure alone can be conservatively estimated at several trillion dollars' worth of infrastructure which is at risk potentially even from a single pulseseveral trillion dollars. So the Congress might properly or appropriately be minded to engage the issue on the basis not only that defeat of our conventional military forces but a very, very profound economic damage to our civilian infrastructure is possible.
None of the above men are alarmists. Yet their warnings are indeed alarming, especially considering recent events just off the Chinese coast.
And the bottom line is that now, in 2005, as a result of the treasons of 1993-2000, the power and technological advantage enjoyed by the Chinese is probably, in large part, the result of (bartered for political support) research reports, design specifications, computer models and hi-tech machinery provided by the United States. And, when we are called upon most likely within the next two years to defend Taiwan, we will find ourselves confronting an enemy largely armed to the teeth by one of our own Presidents.
Our men will die, our weaponry and equipment will be blown up, and freedom-loving nations will find themselves facing an ominous predator unlike any the world has ever known in large part because of William Jefferson Clintons thirst for power, allegiance to a leftist political agenda and obsessive desire to manufacture a personal legacy.
Hey when simple nearby lightning bolt can knock out PCs we know that an EMP will put a complete halt to civilization as we know it. Lightning only 1/4 mile away wrecks havoc on today's LAN (local area network) wiring and in-turn the PC damage from there in. As the circuitry gets faster it gets denser and smaller and even more susceptable to EMP damage.
We will not be able to buy gas or buy groceries, etc because everything has a chip in it.
Take it up with all of the respected people she has quoted, and the report of the congressional commission.
Awesome research Joanie. Just awesome! Thanks much for the ping!
"If they were, our space bursts in the 50's and 60's would have wiped out Hawaii, and instead they just screwed up AM radio for a few minutes."
Hawaii had tube type electronics in that day. The semiconductor of the last 20 years are 1000 times more susceptable to damage from EMPs.
Nuclear subs are immune to EMP. Immune.
Very thorough research, joanie--thanks for the good work.
You got that right. And all of the people who are claiming that EMP won't cause the damage that it will, and that the informed ones are "chicken littles" are too blind to see the writing on the wall. It's a major threat that could leave us pretty defenseless.
IMO, the lack of focus on the EMP scenario is one of our leaderships most deadly oversights.
Have you read the congressional report? AND if nuclear subs being immune are all you're concerned about you're pretty short sighted.
I agree China is a very, very serious threat.
I'll bookmark for later reading.
Nice work Joanie, interesting how much danger we face
TODAY because of the actions of just TWO democrat Presidents.
Our strategy has to be based on immediate response.
An EMF attack isn't going to affect subs off the coast of China, and the Chinese need to know that any nuclear attack will result in the annihilation of their military. The response needs to be quick and automatic, because obviously if we have time to think about it, we have time for nuclear blackmail to have its effect.
And we have to let them know that an attack from North Korea will be viewed as an attack by China, and responded to in the very same way.
But frankly, our support for Taiwan, in any case, will be limited. Our military is no longer designed to sustain a war with China. At one time we were manned for a so-called "2-1/2 war" scenario, in which theoretically we could take on the Soviets, the Chinese, and the Cubans simultaneously.
Those days are long gone. Now a war with a Cuba-sized military is all we can handle.
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