Big Buckeye Bounce! CNN Reports Bush Now up by 8% in Ohio, was Down 2% Pre-Convention

CNN - Inside Politics

[governsleastgovernsbest]

Paula Zahn just laid the bad [for them] news on Inside Politics host Judy Woodruff: in the just-released CNN/Time/Gallup poll, among likely voters W now leads by 8% in Ohio, 52% W, 44% Kerry. This compares with a 2% Kerry lead prior to the convention. In other words, W has had a 10% bounce.

An 11% bounce turns up among registered voters in Ohio: from Bush down 10% to Bush leading by 1%.

Zahn teased what she said were some "very interesting results" in the latest poll in Pennsylvania, Missouri and Washington, but said she was holding off on reporting them till her show this evening.

[ambrose]

Uh... since a large number of people won't even bother to vote, we should be most interested in the opinions of people who will actually vote in the upcoming election. Afterall, it is always the "likely voter" model that is used in the final polling that is used to measure a pollster's historical accuracy.

[TheGeezer]

And with the Bush NG revival, the point of military service is raised once again in the public's mind, which will draw the limelight once again to Kerry's questionable service and obscene post-Vietnam slanders.

The internals must have been horrendous to induce phone calls to the Globe and CBS for mud support...

[Toespi]

The public is immune to this small stuff and I think Kelly's book is going to backfire big time. Especially when she put Laura into the mix, selling drugs.

[creepycrawly]

Good news, but we're still in the convention honeymoon period. Curious what the polls will read beginning about 2 weeks from now.

[governsleastgovernsbest]

Can anyone name a single platform this guy is running on (except Vietnam)?

Sure. There's, uh, just give me a second here. Nervous. First time caller. Let's see, where were we? Oh, right, Kerry's platform. Well, there's, uh, I'm pretty sure I do remember him mentioning, uh. Well, he did serve in Vietnam didn't he?

[colorado tanker]

Looks like the more Ohioans get to know Lurch the less they like him.

[Conservababe]

Paula is releasing poll numbers for Washington, PA and Missouri on her show tonight.

[Rutles4Ever]

This is a strange statistic: Bush leads reg. voters by 1% and LIKELY voters by 8%?

Am I reading this wrong or does this imply there's a slew of unregistered voters planning on registering to vote for Bush? Would this be the 18-22 crowd?

[Eric in the Ozarks]

Go Bucks (except on October 16th)...

[sc2_ct]

You can add Connecticut as a swing state since it's withing 5-7% from the latest polls I've seen.

[cripplecreek]

Democrats are like small chidren when it comes to things they don't want to believe.

[ShandaLear]

Yeah, but what about the unlikely voters? Huh? Huh? Huh?

[aft_lizard]

Most definately it matters. Kerry team is going to have to make a decision soon whether to continue in Ohio and lose the election or change strategies and go for some other important swing state such as PA.

I think that if Ohio at this time in the next two weeks remain strongly up for Bush the race, barring any debate gaffes is all but over.

[SmellsLikeOwen]

My only concern is with a Liberal dominated media that they will do this intentionally and then stage a dramatic Kerry comeback right before election day. Makes me take a step back.


Cheers!

Matt

[Constitution Day]

JOHN: YOU HAVE NO CHANCE TO BE ELECTED MAKE YOUR TIME.

[RWR8189]

Kerry lead 52-42 among registered voters in the last poll!

Kerry led 47-45 among likely voters in the last poll!

Huge bounce

Ohio: Two-Way Horse Race Demographics Based on Registered Voters

	Aug 13-15
	Kerry	Bush
	%	%
Total	52	42
Gender
Men	49	47
Women	54	37
Race
Whites	48	46
Non-whites	74	18
Age
18-34	62	35
35-54	48	46
55+	49	43
Region
Northeast	52	41
Central	53	41
Southwest	44	52
Education
Post-graduate	50	46
College graduate	45	47
Some college	50	43
High school or less	55	39
Income
$75,000 or more	41	54
$40,000-$74,999	47	47
Less than $40,000	63	31
Ideology
Conservative	22	72
Moderate	67	26
Liberal	87	8
Partisanship
Republicans	4	94
Independents	52	36
Democrats	94	3

 

[Mike Fieschko]

Can anyone name a single platform this guy is running on (except Vietnam)?

Sure.

'I'm not Bush.'

He's been very effective at getting that across. The American people are listening and being convinced. Look at the polls.



Brought to you by Acme Political Campaign Consultants.

[comebacknewt]

This is truly great news. If we can put OH out of play, Fn's chances of winning are close to nil.

That said, the one thing I don't undestand that really troubles me with the Gallup poll is that there is such a huge gap between registered and likely voters' support for W. With all the A.C.T. money, you can be sure the RATs will have a big turnout of their registered base.

Anyone want to reassure me that I am off-base in this line of thinking?

[slowhand520]

I would not worry. When Clarke's and Woodwards book came out, Bush's poll numbers went up. This is a last ditch effort from a failling party.

[governsleastgovernsbest]

Yeah, guess you got me there! [And don't go swinging from that thing]