That said, the one thing I don't undestand that really troubles me with the Gallup poll is that there is such a huge gap between registered and likely voters' support for W. With all the A.C.T. money, you can be sure the RATs will have a big turnout of their registered base.
Anyone want to reassure me that I am off-base in this line of thinking?
Okay, just found my brain. Likely voters vs. registered voters:
Dems are getting demoralized, will not be going to the polls...
I would think that President Bush may be up by more than this right now. The Christians in Ohio will be coming out in droves on election day.
still worry, but its lookin good!!
>>that really troubles me with the Gallup poll is that there is such a huge gap between registered and likely voters' support for W.
I think Gallup is one of the few that tries really hard
to scientifically guage how many (D)'s and (R)'s are REALLY
going to show up to vote this year.
Most others just use the exit polls from year 2000 and
re-weight everything to 39% D dnd 35% R (except for the
downright dasterdly cheaters that go even stronger on the D's)
Those OTHER pollsters pretend 9/11 never happened, and that
there has been NO swing toward conservatives since 2000,
and that young people who get to vote for the first time
in 2004 are JUST as liberal as the old folks that have
died off since year 2000. [all false premises]
I wouldn't worry too much about the discrepancy between registered and likely. Many here know, as the pollsters that likely always favors republicans. Let me ask... which would you rather have Bush more ahead in??? Registered or Likely. Because, "likely" (for sure) voters are going to be what makes this a landslide for Bush. A lot of people who are anti-Bush but really don't like Kerry are just not going to vote. Also, this is the first post 9-11 election, and the pollsters don't know how to factor the changing demographics into their turnout models. I suspect this could be a landslide election for Bush. Newt predicted 57-42 Bush a couple of months ago, and I thought he was crazy. Now I am thinking he may have underestimated things.