Posted on 05/29/2004 4:48:59 PM PDT by Graybeard58
President Bush leads John Kerry by 6 percentage points in the battle for Ohio, a state that could decide who wins the White House, according to a statewide Plain Dealer poll.
Ohio voters surveyed say they favor Bush over Kerry, 47 percent to 41 percent. Consumer advocate Ralph Nader draws 3 percent, though he has yet to qualify for the Ohio ballot. Nine percent say they are undecided.
Though Bush is given low marks for his handling of the economy and the war in Iraq, those who say they favor him cite his moral character and his stewardship over the war on terrorism and homeland security as reasons.
"I'm very concerned about what a change of administration would mean, primarily about security," says Bob Saul, a retired General Electric marketing manager from Cincinnati who participated in the poll.
Though the economy remains a major concern, Saul says he is not willing to risk returning "to an era of appeasement and therefore wind up being more vulnerable to future attacks."
Much of Kerry's support (62 percent) is from voters who say they favor him not so much for who he is but for who he is not - George Bush - a sign that Kerry has not yet sold himself or his plans to the state's voters.
"I'm more anti-Bush, and I'm not really that strong on Kerry," says Burel Eding of Toledo, who participated in the poll. "I feel we need a change. I supported Bush on the invasion in Afghanistan, but I don't think he's doing enough on the economy."
The poll, conducted May 20-25 by Mason-Dixon Polling and Research, is based on interviews with 1,500 registered voters who plan to vote in November. The poll, which has a margin of error of 2.6 percentage points, is the largest presidential poll taken in Ohio this year.
The results run counter to the findings of earlier polls, conducted in Ohio by other organizations, that have showed the race a dead heat or with Kerry slightly ahead.
The Plain Dealer results "remind us that there are 50 different state elections, and it is very important to pay attention to the polls in the states, particularly the ones done with a large sample of people who intend to vote," says Karlyn Bowman, who studies opinion polls at the American Enterprise Institute, a think tank in Washington, D.C. "There are clearly differences in the electorate in states about the race overall."
The poll shows Bush is favored even though nearly one out of two people surveyed say they disapprove of his handling of the economy, which remains the No. 1 issue of concern among Ohio voters. And Bush tops Kerry even though less than half - 45 percent - approve of his handling of the war in Iraq. Among those interviewed who are planning to vote for Bush, 53 percent cite his character and integrity as their top reason for supporting the president. Nearly 30 percent say they plan to vote for him first and foremost because they like the leadership he has shown in the war on terror.
"Bush's strength is the 'strength' issue," says Bowman. "People do believe nationally that the Bush administration has made this nation safer."
Kevin Madden, a Bush campaign spokesman, declined to comment on any of the poll's specific findings. He says he believes "Ohioans look to their president for leadership and clarity on the issues that are important to them" and "that is a message that we look forward to delivering throughout this campaign in Ohio."
Though Bush shows strength in this poll, the results "don't look good for a sitting president," says John Green, director of the Bliss Institute of Applied Politics at the University of Akron. Bush's support on foreign affairs could change, Green says, especially if the situation in Iraq worsens and it "gets caught up in an issue that he can't control."
For Kerry, the poll shows that voters have yet to connect with Kerry or his domestic and foreign affairs policies, reflected by the 62 percent of Kerry's support comes from people who dislike Bush. Twenty-one percent of those surveyed who plan to vote for Kerry cite his policies as the most important issue; 16 percent say his character and integrity is the top issue.
Bowman says Kerry needs to convert some of the anti-Bush vote into Kerry backers to improve his chances. To do that, she says, Kerry needs to raise more doubt about Bush's handling of the economy and make the message stick."That right now, in national polls and well in Ohio, is the strength of the Democrats because voters think Kerry would better handle the economy," she says.
Kerry doesn't have to convince Shirley Bruce of Munroe Falls.
"I'm with Kerry 100 percent," says Bruce, a retiree who participated in the poll. "I don't like that everything is leaving the state."
Bruce cites Kerry's emphasis on the economy as her top reason for supporting him. But she says she would like to learn more about him.
Kerry's campaign says it knows it must educate voters about the senator and his positions.
"Recent polling in Ohio has fluctuated, and it is still very early to rely on anyone particular poll," says Jennifer Palmieri, Kerry's Ohio spokeswoman. "These numbers reflect a overall dissatisfaction with Bush and an opportunity for John Kerry. We have to work hard to make sure people know who John Kerry is."
The Kerry campaign is airing biographical TV commercials in the state about his family and military background. And Kerry has benefited from special interest groups that have run ads in Ohio critical of Bush's policies. He and his wife, Theresa Heinz Kerry, have visited the state a half-dozen times.
Bush has visited Ohio 17 times as president and has spent millions here to air campaign commercials.
Ohio's voters were narrowly split in the 2000 election, with Bush defeating Al Gore by less than 4 percent. As a result, with 20 electoral votes up for grabs, the state is considered a top prize that could swing the election.
But campaigning in Ohio is difficult because it includes five distinct regions, from flat and mountainous rural regions with a conservative Republican bent to liberal urban areas that favor Democrats.
Voters in Ohio's socially conservative Southwest, which includes the Republican stronghold of Cincinnati, favor Bush by the widest margin - 20 percentage points - over Kerry, 54 percent to 34 percent.
By contrast, voters in the Northeast favor Kerry the most - by 9 percentage points - at 47 percent to 38 percent. The Northeast contains the Democratic cities Cleveland and Youngstown, which have suffered more job losses than most other parts of the state.
Ohio's Southeast region, which includes Appalachia, may be the most competitive at this point - with room for both candidates to make their mark. "The Southeast has born the brunt of economic troubles in Ohio and we will have Kerry spend a great deal of time there," Palmieri says. But converting voters might be difficult, the poll suggests.
Asked if it is reasonably possible that they might change their presidential vote before the November election, 73 percent of the would-be voters say no.
Still, that does leave a large number of undecided voters. Edith Coe of Granville, Ohio, is a voter on the fence.
"I was kind of interested in Kerry but with all the mudslinger ads neither one of them seems that good now," says Coe, a retired school district employee. "It's not that I think Bush is doing a horrible job, but when you hear about how Kerry fluctuates that scares you, too."
Can any freeper post how Zogby did state by state in the last polls he did, comparing them to the actual Senatorial contests in 2002?
Hate to say this, but I'm not optimistic about our country in the case of a terrorist attack. Look at how we've got no backbone and no brain over the prisoner Abuse scandal. The media and the treasonous Dims have made sure that this nation is hearing nothing but bad news out of Iraq, and if there is an attack it will be nothing but bad news and finger-pointing and cut-and-run from the Dims and the media (I repeat myself).
I USED to think that if it happened a few days before the election, Bush would win. But he won't ... the LYING media will make sure of that. And if he does, the drumbeat from the left will be for impeachment because Bush didn't do enough. Never mind that they want to axe the Patriot Act and hamper our President in every way they can.
Sorry ... the traitors are going to make sure we're toast as a nation. Mark my words ... and I hope I'm wrong.
They've been posted many times, but let me give you the executive summary. Zogby got his derriere kicked. :-)
Zogby 2002 senate polls
SD
Thune (R) 52%
Johnson (D) 47%
Zogby 11/3-4
Johnson won 50-49%
MN
Mondale (D) 51%
Coleman (R) 45%
Zogby 11/3-4
Coleman won 50%-47%
CO
Strickland (D) 51%
Allard (R) 46%
11/2-4
Allard won 51-46%
GA
Cleland (D) 50%
Saxby (R) 48%
Zogby 11/3-4
Saxby won 53%-46%
MO
Talent (R) 53%
Carnahan (D) 45%
11/3-4
Talent won 50-49%
TX
Cornyn (R) 50%
Kirk (D) 46%
Zogby 11/3-4
Cornyn won 55%-43%
*Zogby did get Senate polls right for AR,NC and NJ.
I think that you will also have to include Lincoln and Iredell counties to the Charlotte Metro area (heck for that matter parts of Catawba and Rowan county fit as well). When the city and the Richardson's were trying to lure the Panthers to town they went a lot farther than that in estimating Charlotte's metro population. If you add in those areas I mentioned, I will need a lot of convincing that metro Charlotte is trending Democrat.
Right. Incomes have been on the rise, but these aren't "good jobs".
First the libs complained about the recession and that everybody lost their money in the stock market.
Then the stock market started rising again, so the libs complained that it didn't matter because the economy wasn't growing fast enough and there were no jobs.
Then the economy turned around and growth in the GDP became the envy of the western world, but the libs complained it wasn't good news because it was a "jobless recovery".
Now we have a booming economy and nearly a million jobs created in the past couple of months..and the libs complain that they're not "good jobs".
These people are pathetic.
It would actually be kind of fun to watch the libs howl over this one, and there is at least a small chance it could actually happen.
Excellent news! Thanks
"The poll, conducted May 20-25 by Mason-Dixon Polling and Research, is based on interviews with 1,500 registered voters who plan to vote in November. The poll, which has a margin of error of 2.6 percentage points, is the largest presidential poll taken in Ohio this year. "
I LIKE this result. It's the best poll result for Bush in weeks from a battleground state. It's also by Mason-Dixon, one of most reputed pollsters around. This will not make the Kerry camp happy at all. Hold that cheery thought.
We also got rid of our home phone and just have cell phones. I live in South Florida and believe me if Kerry doesn't pick up Ohio (prayers Lord) he will NOT pick up Florida.
I'm fairly certain that that is correct. W has 278 votes this time from the states that he won last time (271 then, but a gain of 7 and a net gain of 14 from redistricting). NH has 4 and I think Nevada has 5 so that would leave us with a tie at 269 if everything else breaks correctly. If that happens though look for an in-depth recount in any states that broke closely for Bush while the media ignores those states that break closely for Kerry.
For your consideration AG. Of course, if you expand the metro areas out enough, there won't be many rural counties left. :) Which is another thing to consider. As metro areas expand, rural counties disappear. That needs to be taken into account as well. 30 years ago, in the South, that meant erasing Dem counties from the map. (Williamson County, Tenn, comes to mind, which used to be a small Middle Tenn Dem county, that voted for Stevenson, and I think Kennedy, and now is a suburban county and heavily GOP.) No longer. Now the rural counties eaten up tend to be GOP.
I don't want the election to be that close. I'm getting too old for these cliff hangers but it would be fun to see a tie in the electoral college and the election be decided in a Republican House. I can hear the lib moaning and groaning and whining now and it's a lovely sound!
I don't have any spreadsheets handy, but I took a look at two Presidential elections, those of 1980 and 2000, and the returns from Mecklenburg (which contains Charlotte and some of its suburbs) and the five counties in NC which adjoin Meckenburg. Figures are given in thousands for the sake of simplicity.
In 1980, Reagan edged Carter in Mecklenburg 68 thousand to 67 thousand; in 2000, Bush prevailed 141 thousand to 127 thousand. So a slight trend to the GOP, despite the fact that Reagan ran a stronger race nationally in 1980 than Bush did in 2000.
But the real story was the trend in the five suburban counties. Listing the GOP candidate first, and again, all votes in thousands, Iredell County was 15-12 in 1980, and 30-15 in 2000; Cabarrus County was 15-10 in 1980, and 33-16 in 2000; Union (home of Jesse Helms and southernnorthcarolina) was 9-10 in 1980, and 32-15 in 2000, thereby exhibiting the strongest GOP trend; Gaston was 25-19 in 1980, and 39-19 in 2000; and Lincoln was 9-8 in 1980, and 16-8 in 2000.
I don't know whether you want to go longer-term or shorter-term in establishing a trend, and certainly the elections one chooses are problematic. Perhaps voter registration data would be more instructive. Certainly such stats as the number of GOP officeholders would validate the trend (example: Union County has five County Commissioners, elected at large; in 1980, all five were Democrats, but now all five are Republicans).
There will come a time when Mecklenburg County will lean Democratic (like Fulton County, the center of the Atlanta metro area). But absent a cataclysm, the Charlotte metro area will remain profoundly Republican, and my guess is that it will become more so for at least the short term.
Remember that Florida now has 27 electoral votes where in 2000 we only had 25.
This has happened to me twice and both times they decided it was ok to activate from a cell phone.
For what it is worth the first time I ever saw the term exurbia about 15 years ago the textbook used North Carolina as its example of the term.
Interesting information on Williamston county. Is it outside Nashville?
btt
Bush 1988 versus Bush 2000 would be a better test. But you probably are right, that if you ring in all the counties around Charlotte, the place is not trending Dem. But that is reaching into some counties with preexisting substantial populations, so the merging of it all, is a mixed bag.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.