Bush leads Kerry in new PD poll (Ohio: Bush 47% Kerry 41%)

Cleveland Plain Dealer ^ | 5/29/03 | Mark Naymik

[Keith]

Can any freeper post how Zogby did state by state in the last polls he did, comparing them to the actual Senatorial contests in 2002?

[TexasGreg]

Hate to say this, but I'm not optimistic about our country in the case of a terrorist attack. Look at how we've got no backbone and no brain over the prisoner Abuse scandal. The media and the treasonous Dims have made sure that this nation is hearing nothing but bad news out of Iraq, and if there is an attack it will be nothing but bad news and finger-pointing and cut-and-run from the Dims and the media (I repeat myself).

I USED to think that if it happened a few days before the election, Bush would win. But he won't ... the LYING media will make sure of that. And if he does, the drumbeat from the left will be for impeachment because Bush didn't do enough. Never mind that they want to axe the Patriot Act and hamper our President in every way they can.

Sorry ... the traitors are going to make sure we're toast as a nation. Mark my words ... and I hope I'm wrong.

[KQQL]

State POLLS according to reliability are.

1) Mason Dixon
2) surveyUSA
3) Research 2000
4) State Pollsters
4) ARG
5) Rasmussen
6)Zogby Sauce

[Coop]

Can any freeper post how Zogby did state by state in the last polls he did, comparing them to the actual Senatorial contests in 2002?

They've been posted many times, but let me give you the executive summary. Zogby got his derriere kicked. :-)

[KQQL]

Zogby 2002 senate polls

SD
Thune (R) 52%
Johnson (D) 47%
Zogby 11/3-4
Johnson won 50-49%

MN
Mondale (D) 51%
Coleman (R) 45%
Zogby 11/3-4
Coleman won 50%-47%

CO
Strickland (D) 51%
Allard (R) 46%
11/2-4
Allard won 51-46%

GA
Cleland (D) 50%
Saxby (R) 48%
Zogby 11/3-4
Saxby won 53%-46%

MO
Talent (R) 53%
Carnahan (D) 45%
11/3-4
Talent won 50-49%

TX
Cornyn (R) 50%
Kirk (D) 46%
Zogby 11/3-4
Cornyn won 55%-43%

*Zogby did get Senate polls right for AR,NC and NJ.

[91B]

I think that you will also have to include Lincoln and Iredell counties to the Charlotte Metro area (heck for that matter parts of Catawba and Rowan county fit as well). When the city and the Richardson's were trying to lure the Panthers to town they went a lot farther than that in estimating Charlotte's metro population. If you add in those areas I mentioned, I will need a lot of convincing that metro Charlotte is trending Democrat.

[Jorge]

The few liberals where I work always scream the same thing about the economy. When I remind them that the economy is the best it's been in years it's always the same thing. Yeah, there are jobs but not good jobs.

Right. Incomes have been on the rise, but these aren't "good jobs".

First the libs complained about the recession and that everybody lost their money in the stock market.
Then the stock market started rising again, so the libs complained that it didn't matter because the economy wasn't growing fast enough and there were no jobs.

Then the economy turned around and growth in the GDP became the envy of the western world, but the libs complained it wasn't good news because it was a "jobless recovery".

Now we have a booming economy and nearly a million jobs created in the past couple of months..and the libs complain that they're not "good jobs".

These people are pathetic.

[comebacknewt]

Actually, if my math is correct, if W loses WV and NH and everything else stays the same, we have an electoral tie that would be resolved by the House.

It would actually be kind of fun to watch the libs howl over this one, and there is at least a small chance it could actually happen.

[NYC Republican]

Excellent news! Thanks

[plushaye]

"The poll, conducted May 20-25 by Mason-Dixon Polling and Research, is based on interviews with 1,500 registered voters who plan to vote in November. The poll, which has a margin of error of 2.6 percentage points, is the largest presidential poll taken in Ohio this year. "

I LIKE this result. It's the best poll result for Bush in weeks from a battleground state. It's also by Mason-Dixon, one of most reputed pollsters around. This will not make the Kerry camp happy at all. Hold that cheery thought.

[rep-always]

We also got rid of our home phone and just have cell phones. I live in South Florida and believe me if Kerry doesn't pick up Ohio (prayers Lord) he will NOT pick up Florida.

[91B]

I'm fairly certain that that is correct. W has 278 votes this time from the states that he won last time (271 then, but a gain of 7 and a net gain of 14 from redistricting). NH has 4 and I think Nevada has 5 so that would leave us with a tie at 269 if everything else breaks correctly. If that happens though look for an in-depth recount in any states that broke closely for Bush while the media ignores those states that break closely for Kerry.

[Torie]

For your consideration AG. Of course, if you expand the metro areas out enough, there won't be many rural counties left. :) Which is another thing to consider. As metro areas expand, rural counties disappear. That needs to be taken into account as well. 30 years ago, in the South, that meant erasing Dem counties from the map. (Williamson County, Tenn, comes to mind, which used to be a small Middle Tenn Dem county, that voted for Stevenson, and I think Kennedy, and now is a suburban county and heavily GOP.) No longer. Now the rural counties eaten up tend to be GOP.

[Graybeard58]

It would actually be kind of fun to watch the libs howl over this one, and there is at least a small chance it could actually happen.

I don't want the election to be that close. I'm getting too old for these cliff hangers but it would be fun to see a tie in the electoral college and the election be decided in a Republican House. I can hear the lib moaning and groaning and whining now and it's a lovely sound!

[southernnorthcarolina]

Apologies to others for hijacking this Ohio thread with a discussion on NC...

I don't have any spreadsheets handy, but I took a look at two Presidential elections, those of 1980 and 2000, and the returns from Mecklenburg (which contains Charlotte and some of its suburbs) and the five counties in NC which adjoin Meckenburg. Figures are given in thousands for the sake of simplicity.

In 1980, Reagan edged Carter in Mecklenburg 68 thousand to 67 thousand; in 2000, Bush prevailed 141 thousand to 127 thousand. So a slight trend to the GOP, despite the fact that Reagan ran a stronger race nationally in 1980 than Bush did in 2000.

But the real story was the trend in the five suburban counties. Listing the GOP candidate first, and again, all votes in thousands, Iredell County was 15-12 in 1980, and 30-15 in 2000; Cabarrus County was 15-10 in 1980, and 33-16 in 2000; Union (home of Jesse Helms and southernnorthcarolina) was 9-10 in 1980, and 32-15 in 2000, thereby exhibiting the strongest GOP trend; Gaston was 25-19 in 1980, and 39-19 in 2000; and Lincoln was 9-8 in 1980, and 16-8 in 2000.

I don't know whether you want to go longer-term or shorter-term in establishing a trend, and certainly the elections one chooses are problematic. Perhaps voter registration data would be more instructive. Certainly such stats as the number of GOP officeholders would validate the trend (example: Union County has five County Commissioners, elected at large; in 1980, all five were Democrats, but now all five are Republicans).

There will come a time when Mecklenburg County will lean Democratic (like Fulton County, the center of the Atlanta metro area). But absent a cataclysm, the Charlotte metro area will remain profoundly Republican, and my guess is that it will become more so for at least the short term.

[rep-always]

Remember that Florida now has 27 electoral votes where in 2000 we only had 25.

[Graybeard58]

We dumped our land line phone a couple of years ago. When it comes time to activate a new ATM card or credit card, it says on the new card that you MUST call from your home phone. Go ahead and use your cell and be sure to tell them it's a cell. When they tell you you must call from a home phone just tell them you will take your business elsewhere... Listen to them squirm and back track.

This has happened to me twice and both times they decided it was ok to activate from a cell phone.

[91B]

I will accept that you can only expand the commuting pop. of a city so far until you queer the concept, but I think you have to include Iredell county (the adjacent county to the north of Mecklenburg connected by I-77) and Lincoln county-especially now that the highway 321 expansion is finished-in the Charlotte metro pop. Otherwise I can't understand how the concept is defined (and the fact is that maybe I am confused here, so if you think so please set me straight).

For what it is worth the first time I ever saw the term exurbia about 15 years ago the textbook used North Carolina as its example of the term.

Interesting information on Williamston county. Is it outside Nashville?

[drq]

btt

[Torie]

Bush 1988 versus Bush 2000 would be a better test. But you probably are right, that if you ring in all the counties around Charlotte, the place is not trending Dem. But that is reaching into some counties with preexisting substantial populations, so the merging of it all, is a mixed bag.