Posted on 06/17/2025 5:31:04 AM PDT by Red Badger
A last-minute observation from the Webb telescope has sharpened predictions for asteroid 2024 YR4, slightly increasing its odds of hitting the Moon but confirming no threat to Earth. (Artist’s concept.) Credit: SciTechDaily.com
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NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope recently made a final observation of asteroid 2024 YR4 before it drifted out of range.
This rare data update refined the asteroid’s projected path and revealed a small uptick in its chance of striking the Moon, though Earth remains in the clear.
Webb Telescope Captures Final Glimpse
Asteroid 2024 YR4 may be out of sight now, but before it slipped too far from Earth to track, NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope captured one final observation. This last glimpse, taken as the asteroid continued its journey around the Sun, delivered a valuable burst of new data.
Thanks to Webb’s sharp view, scientists at NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies, based at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) in Southern California, were able to improve their prediction of the asteroid’s future path. They now have a 20% better estimate of where the asteroid will be on December 22, 2032. That fine-tuning slightly raised the odds of it striking the Moon—from 3.8% to 4.3%. Even if a collision did occur, it would not affect the Moon’s orbit.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 Moon Impact Probability
The range of possible locations – represented by yellow points – of 2024 YR4 on Dec. 22, 2032. The range decreases from April to June as we gained more data and improved our certainty of the asteroid’s position. Earth is close to the center of the white circle, which represents the Moon’s orbital path. Credit: NASA/JPL Center for Near-Earth Object Studies Earth Impact Ruled Out
When 2024 YR4 was first discovered, it briefly raised concerns due to a slim possibility of hitting Earth. However, with additional observations, NASA has confidently ruled out any risk of impact with our planet in 2032 or beyond.
As more data becomes available, it’s normal for these probabilities to shift. In this case, the update came from an international science team led by Dr. Andy Rivkin at Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory, using Webb’s Near-Infrared Camera this past May.
Out of View Until 2028
Asteroid 2024 YR4 is now too far away to be seen by either ground-based or space-based telescopes. But it won’t stay hidden forever. NASA plans to make new observations when the asteroid returns to the inner solar system in 2028, offering another chance to refine its orbit even further.
Cool.
Suppose it hits the moon and a big chunk of the moon breaks off and takes a path straight to earth?
A real case of “the sky is falling”..I wonder if they could calculate those odds.
Time to dust off my fabulous Sunsword...
there’s also a window where it misses the moon but comes close enough to receive a gravitational assist, resulting in a close encounter/collision with Earth. I don’t see that in the report.
Is that in 2032? If so I’m likely to be gone by then.
I think the premise of Space 1999 was an asteroid hits the moon and sends it hurtling out of orbit and into deep space or something so there’s always watching old episodes of that.
More likely it will slide into Uranus.
oh ok....never mind....carry on....I didn’t watch it much back in the day
I really liked that show, and Space Academy that was on the same channel on Saturday afternoons............
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_Academy
It is but the real opportunity was in 1994 when Jupiter got hit multiple times with some Civilization ending sized rocks. I was able to see Jupiter though a telescope and see the black spots from the blasts. If the Shuttle had not exploded there would have been a probe in orbit that could have truly recorded it in detail.
Don’t believe it. If the asteroid hits the moon at a very low angle of attack it could ricochet toward earth. If that happened it would accelerate to a tremendous speed because of earths gravity.
Depends on the angle of attack..............
The asteroid is approximately 60 meters in diameter
Relax just a small rock. If it were mile or greater, then some alarm might be warranted
4%?
What about the fragments of both the moon and asteroid that will, inevitably, be ejected?
It “could” mean years of these chunks crashing to Earth...
Chicken Little gets the last laugh?
“The sky is falling! The sky is falling!”
Hmmm... In 2032, I’ll be 99... Yikes! Guess I won’t be out on the Potomac River bass fishing that day...
There was this SciFi movie and IIR, it didn;t end well for erf.
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