Posted on 02/26/2020 9:16:48 AM PST by C19fan
The influenza pandemic of 1918-1919 killed more people than the Great War, known today as World War I (WWI), at somewhere between 20 and 40 million people. It has been cited as the most devastating epidemic in recorded world history. More people died of influenza in a single year than in four-years of the Black Death Bubonic Plague from 1347 to 1351. Known as "Spanish Flu" or "La Grippe" the influenza of 1918-1919 was a global disaster.
(Excerpt) Read more at virus.stanford.edu ...
“1918 flu, healthy people in the prime of life could wake up feeling well in the morning, and be dead by midnight.”
Ctyokine storm. The stronger your immune system, the more likely that you would drown in your own antibodies.
That’s what makes hybrid flus far more dangerous than normal human flu which mostly kills those with weak immune systems, usually by secondary pneumonia.
Hybrid flus are animal/human crosses. Bird flu, swine flu. 1918 was a swine flu. It’s the animal component that seems to make immune systems go berserk.
As bad as that is, it's good news.
The rate of deaths/deaths+recoveries has been dropping pretty steadily since day one.
Better treatment, patients in better underlying health, mutation to less lethal forms, and maybe lower risk genetics, maybe?
The 2% number (which is 20 times the flu death rate!) is based on deaths/everyone who is sick!
The textbook formula for mortality is deaths/total cases. It works well for the Spanish Flu, the Black Death, or any other historical disease where all the cases have run their full course.
Applying it to everyone currently sick forces the assumption that NO ONE WHO IS NOW SICK WILL DIE!
That underestimates the actual net rate.
Tell you what. Let's calculate the survival rate.
Hmmmm. 30,311 recovered/81,245 confirmed infected, times 100 yields only 37.3% survive.
Do you buy that number?
And I posted it in CHAT!!!!
It was a depression.
There certainly is a lot of garbage posted on the subject.
Comparing this with the epidemic of 1918 is an example of faulty logic.
There was no flu vaccine in 1918. It was first available in 1938, twenty years later.
Today probably 90% of the population has been vaccinated.
Within a few months, the vaccine will be available for the COVD-19 virus and that will greatly reduce the fatality rate.
Until 90% or so of the population is vaccinated, comparing the death rate with the flue deaths of recent years is useless.
That’s why I really hate him.
He intentionally frightens people so he can make money.
He’s a monster in my opinion.
I remembered a downturn.
(I didn’t fail history class LOL).
Lets assume none of them will, and use that number to calcualte the fatality rate.
Try the same reasoning to calculate the survival rate, the math isn't that hard...
Deaths/total cases ⇒ 2.3% mortality rate
Recovered/total cases ⇒ 37.3% survival rate
Thx...I just sent your “take” to family...
Yes, that's why I use completed cases as the denominator in my estimates.
To know the yield of a process I don't need to know how many parts are on the manufacturing floor, I only need to know how many good parts there were and the total number of parts made it out of the shop floor and into final inspection.
I think we should track down the guy forcing him to click on these threads and beat the living crap out of him so Bobbie can FReep in peace.
He’s a monster in my opinion.
He also got his start by turning in his neighbors to the Nazis and then picking through their stuff.
Yesterday, I looked at the numbers for the C-virus on TV. It reported 79,441 reported cases with 2,620 deaths. That comes to a 3.3% mortality rate. Then I checked the mortality rate for the year 2018 flu. Of the 64,000 sick enough to be hospitalized, 61,000 died. That was a 9.4% mortality. Mortality peaked at 10.8% during the week ending January 20, 2018. Are we exaggerating the danger of the C-virus? Is giving it the name COVID-19 making it even more terrifying.
I would say that those above the age of 60 have very high mortality rates for the flu. People should know that flu vaccinations are a good preventative. Due to them the incidence of flu have dropped in the years.
Yep.
An absolutely awful human being.
Using your approach, I get about a 10% CFR. Am I close to your figure?
My father in law got the Spanish Flu when he was a 19 year old college student in Denmark. Got drunk on a bottle of Aquavit and was well the next day. Lived to 92.
Yeah I expected a sarcastic response from you since you are one of the major hysterical posters regarding the corona virus. Chill on your hysteria.
Ease of transmission isn’t even close.
The 1918 flu was spread by migratory birds.
The Spanish influenza was especially devastating because the majority of victims were young persons in previous good health. This does not seem to be the case with the COVID-19. Its mortality rate appears to be highest among vulnerable populations much like the standard flu viruses.
Does not make the death toll less worrisome but it does mean likelyhood for recovery is stronger in non-vulnerable population.
In fact, there was a very serious Wall Street crash in 1920 (Dow down 50%!) and near depression in 1921 (unemployment at 20%), due to wartime inflation, and a sudden credit bubble which popped in 1920, partially due to Spanish flu also.
why don’t we hear about this?
Because basically, the government did nothing, except to cut their budget and reduce taxes. No welfare programs, no BS job-creation schemes, no rafts of regulation. It was before progressives had fully taken over government.
And by the end of 1921, the economy was beginning to boom again.
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