The Influenza Pandemic of 1918 [Same Mortality Rate as COVID-19]

Stanford University ^ | February 1, 2005 | Staff

[Robert DeLong]

After reading the write up of it, I guess it is not about the kind of parasite I thought it was, but rather a family of human parasites. I stand corrected. 8>)

Sometimes I make the mistake of thinking I know what a movie is about, when I really don't.

[calenel]

“I’m saying the principle concern is those lives. The economy ought to do just fine, judging by history, in spite of the market meltdown.”

Agreed on both points. A good time to buy into the market should be coming up pretty soon, but that’s secondary.

[calenel]

Recheck you numbers regarding the number of hospitalized for flu.

And most of that 79k+ are not hospitalized. They are confirmed cases including those with mild or no symptoms.

So your numbers are a mismatch.

Consider also that most of those 79k+ are in one city where the medical system has been overwhelmed.

Consider. also, that the Chinese are lying about the number of dead and infected. They probably have no idea and won’t until it’s all over and they can gather all the records. But it is worse in that particular city than they are letting on.

For real numbers, watch Italy, Korea and Japan where there is community transmission in certain regions, quarantine efforts and some transparency. Those numbers should be more informative. It’s still pretty early, though.

Don’t accept Iran’s numbers, they are just as much BS as China’s.

[calenel]

“That’s bullharkie. The 14th Century Black Death took about half of the worlds population, and the 1918 Infulenza killed tens of thousands and took a lot fewer than did the plague”

Please source your stats. Because they appear to be wildly inaccurate.

[calenel]

“When more cases came on board, the rate steadily improved.”

It simply takes longer to get better, on average, so as time passes the dead stay dead but more of the living recover. Eventually, when there are enough cases the instantaneous CFR will approach the actual CFR and new cases will have statistically predictable outcomes.

[Georgia Girl 2]

Not true. Here in the US the Spanish flu was 11%-16% mortality. Some reports say 10%-20%.

[Black Agnes]

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/12/1/05-0979_article

“Case-fatality rates were >2.5%, compared to <0.1% in other influenza pandemics (3,4).”

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_human_disease_case_fatality_rates

[Georgia Girl 2]

Yeh uh no! Estimates are that 10%-20% of those infected with the Spanish flu died. 3%-6% of the global population died. 25 million died in the first 25 weeks. 265,000 Americans died. The huge death toll from spanish flu was due to a 50% infection rate and severe symptoms which mimicked dengue fever, cholera and typhoid. People experienced massive hemorrhaging, bleeding from the ears and lungs. Its nothing like the coronavirus. The coronavirus is a bad cold for most people. So we still have 265,000 deaths to go in the Us to match Spanish flu as not one person has died yet. This whole farce will be gone in a few weeks just like ebola. 😆

[Black Agnes]

So you’re saying the official CDC stats on the spanish flu are wrong?

Really?

[SE Mom]

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[Georgia Girl 2]

So you’re saying the coronavirus is like the Spanish flu? Really? I don’t think the CDC is saying that. Although I do seem to remember them panicking over Ebola. How does the CDC think we get from zero to 265,000 deaths from a flu that appears to be weaker than our regular seasonal flu as far as symptoms.

I’ll be shocked if anybody dies of this. OK I’ll be shocked if 10 people in the US die of this flu. This is west Nile, Zeka virus 2.0

[Black Agnes]

No.

You said the Spanish Flu mortality was 20%.

It wasn’t

CDC stats have Spanish Flu mortality as 2.5%

CIDRAP, as highly esteemed as the CDC has this to say about this coronavirus:

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/02/study-72000-covid-19-patients-finds-23-death-rate

2.3% for this bug. Roughly the same as the Spanish Flu in this country.

We can hope and pray we don’t have that level of mortality, here, from this.

But it is NOT the common cold. Japan isn’t closing industries and schools over the common cold. Neither is SK.

[dirtboy]

Passenger pigeons were extinct by 1914. Not sure where you are getting this.

[Georgia Girl 2]

I’m talking percentage of infected not percentage of the population. Even Wickipedia reports up to a 50% infection rate and 20% mortality rate of infected for the Spanish flu. You are not going to get an epidemic from 2.5%. Thats not happening.
The infection rate for corona virus is currently estimated at 2.0%-2.5% but chances are since a great deal of people only experience very mild symptoms you are not getting an accurate count at this time because so many people are not being identified. When this all shakes out the coronavirus will fall into the same category as the regular seasonal flu virus. No epidemic is forthcoming.