[DoodleBob]

Fair point, though as I noted elsewhere what would REALLY be helpful is a cohort breakdown. I believe there IS value in looking at work-in-progress because learning and improvements made in real-time can impact the ultimate yield.

Using your approach, I get about a 10% CFR. Am I close to your figure?

[null and void]

Pretty close. I've got 8.4%

I don't generally post my day to day guesses, because they are largely based on phony ChiCom data. I only bother doing the calculations because I think they are lying about both the number of cases and the number of fatalities and those lies more or less cancel each other out.

What I'm really concerned about isn't what governments are SAYING I'm paying much more attention to what they are DOING.

Those actions are way, hugely far, all out of proportion to a response to any normal illness, even a bad year's flu.

That worries me.