I don't generally post my day to day guesses, because they are largely based on phony ChiCom data. I only bother doing the calculations because I think they are lying about both the number of cases and the number of fatalities and those lies more or less cancel each other out.
What I'm really concerned about isn't what governments are SAYING I'm paying much more attention to what they are DOING.
Those actions are way, hugely far, all out of proportion to a response to any normal illness, even a bad year's flu.
That worries me.
Removing all Mainland China data, I get 16.98%; 55 deaths / (55 plus 269 recoveries).
Now, in part, this high Case Fatality Rate probably reflects the absence of the work-in-progress of 2,857 non-Mainland China unresolved but alive people. They may not all die at a 17% rate - there will likely be improvements in treatment, heroic measures, learning and sharing of medical approaches globally that lowers the final CFR. In addition, the early deaths may have been the sickest people with which to begin. There is a LOT to factor in, but I'd rather do the math and sort it out later. Thanks.