Posted on 02/24/2020 10:13:59 AM PST by saxonjf
I am not a doctor or an epidemiologist. I am a regular guy who sees the world and tries to understand it from a very common sense point of view. Tragedy has struck China, the virus has spread around the world. The Coronavirus is a problem and it must be dealt with. I am not a denier: what I will say is stay calm and don’t panic.
(Excerpt) Read more at medium.com ...
Yup....
This could collapse the Chinese economy and government. They cpuld have been on it early but let it spread. His regime changes happen.
Don’t just do something - stand there!!!
This virus is causing cytokine storms in the young. Lots of 20 and 30 somethings succumbing to this.
These are the key points of this guy's essay.
In some ways he is correct: You are probably not going to die from this. You probably won't even get that sick.
Butin other ways he is dangerously wrong.
The stock market is not down 3.33% as I type because people are afraid of dying. You are talking about a marketplace made up people who would sell their mom's kidney for 1/8th of a point. (I know I am dating myself.)
The stock market is down because the Supply Chain is going to be disrupted--and disrupted for at least a few months. This will impact earnings and jobs numbers here in the US for Q2.
His calculation for a Case Fatality Rate (CFR) is woefully wrong. Instead of just a few people dying, this could kill up to 10% of resolved cases. That's not good.
Hypothetical impact on the US is silly at this point.
He seems to be one of the people who thinks this virus is an either/or choice between CornonaVirus and the normal Influenza. Its not. Around the world it occurs concurrently.
Where I usually end my comments I write that we need to look at actions in China. We need to ask ourselves if these actions seem reasonable for something that is not worth concern. The numbers in China are crap. Their actions--locking down 1/10 of the population of the world--an act unprecedented in human history--should at least concern people.
Panic is never productive. It is why you educate yourself and it is why you practice.
Worry is not productive. I means thinking about what could go wrong--without taking the steps to prevent or correct the danger.
Concern is appropriate. Educate yourself. Think about the probabilities with a clear mind. Ask why stuff is happening. What else is happening.
Prepare and practice. As the wise man wrote:
If you can keep your head when all about you Are losing theirs and blaming it on you,
If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you,
But make allowance for their doubting too;
If you can wait and not be tired by waiting,
Or being lied about, don’t deal in lies,
Or being hated, don’t give way to hating,
And yet don’t look too good, nor talk too wise:...
Yours is the Earth and everything that’s in it,
And—which is more—you’ll be a Man, my son!"
I tried to refresh the page a while ago and it wanted me to log in.
Guess the bandwidth was too costly to help keep the public informed of a pandemic
ANY lunkhead can get his writing "published" on Medium. That first line tells me all I need to know. File this away with the "Five stocks you need to buy immediately" clickbait.
AND, thinking it through a bit further, those disruptions tanking corporate profits the next six months, the stock market taking a beating, and Trump losing the election to a communist.
That scenario scares me to death.
Our neighbor is turning 70 and has cut his work hours in half for the next year to transition to retirement. He has trips to South America, Mexico, and the Middle East coming up to train his replacements. He doesn’t seem too concerned. If it were me, I’d cancel those trips immediately and train them via video conference.
Define panic. If one does not take some precautions they are an idiot. Stock up on extra food and meds.
There will be a lot of bargain buying before that deep of a dip occurs.
Shell Oil (RDS.B) and Exxon/Mobil (XOM).
I will decide when and where I will panic TYVM.
With that said I’m not panicking over the coronavirus until and unless its deaths surpass the usual deaths every year associated with the common flu. (About 14,000). And time is running out really for that to happen. Another flu season will start later in the year and probably lap the CV death rate 4 times, again.
This (the CV scare) is hype, really, on a global scale. Hype sells papers (or clicks I guess in today’s digital age). So that’s that. Just keep it all in perspective.
Aids
Hole in the ozone layer
Ice Age
Y2K
Asteroids
Ebola
SARS
Mad Cow Disease
Global Warming
Zika
Climate Change
and now Coronavirus
It’s called Media Inflamed Fear, don’t fall for it.
You’re the only one on this entire thread that should not panic, since you have a life-saving faith in Jesus Christ.
Everybody else thinks they can buy and ‘prep’ their way to safety.
They are just as dead as the first guy who kicked the bucket from the virus, they just don’t know it yet.
You are exactly correct.
A very prominent client of mine, a doctor no less, we discussed this matter and he was wondering how bad this was. I reminded him of that very long list of media related hoaxes/health scares we’ve been subjected to over the last few decades.
You know, it’s so effective in scaring people that you’ll notice that even Asians that live here in the USA, walk around with masks all the time. They’ve become conditioned to believe that germs are just waiting to pounce on them and kill them.
COVID19 has been in China for 60-90 days
COVID19 has been in the west a few weeks
When the west is at the 60-90 day mark well know a lot more.
This is the first thing on the WHO website this afternoon:
“Since the emergence of COVID-19 we have seen instances of public
stigmatization among specific populations, and the rise of harmful
stereotypes. Stigmatization could potentially contribute to more severe
health problems, ongoing transmission, and difficulties controlling infectious
diseases during an epidemic. Please see the Subject in Focus section for more
information on how to counter stigmatizing attitudes.”
With people like that in charge of your and your family’s safety, I would consider panic.
Now go read what the CDC posted last night.
Two or four of everything...I think I need.
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