Earth Is Safe From Menacing Asteroid—but Our Moon Might Take the Hit

Gizmodo ^ | Published April 1, 2025 | Passant Rabie

[BenLurkin]

Ground-based telescopes from the International Asteroid Warning Network have been tracking the asteroid, but it will be too faint to observe until June 2028...That’s why Webb was called in for the job, measuring the asteroid’s brightness across a range of infrared wavelengths to better determine its size.

In late January, a team of scientists proposed using the mid-infrared instrument on Webb to observe the asteroid and better understand its damage potential. The team recently released the preliminary results of Webb’s observations of asteroid 2024 YR4, suggesting that, while the asteroid is larger and rockier than previous observations, it has nearly a 0% chance of hitting Earth during its upcoming flyby...

Webb first spotted the asteroid on March 26, observing it as it rotated every 20 minutes over a five-hour-long period. [T]he researchers determined that the asteroid was slightly larger than previously believed. Initial estimates suggested that the asteroid measures between 130 and 300 feet wide (40 and 90 meters) based on its reflected light. Webb’s observations, however, measure the asteroid at 200 feet (60 meters) wide.

...[T]he results suggest that the asteroid “continues to have a non-zero probability of impacting the Moon at this time,” the researchers concluded. The Moon has likely endured thousands of asteroid impacts during its 4.5-billion-year history, but it’s not yet clear what would happen if asteroid 2024 YR4 strikes our natural satellite. At its current size estimate, the asteroid would likely release about 8 megatons of energy during impact...comparable to the energy released in the Tunguska blast of 1908, according to NASA.

The potential Moon impact would allow scientists the rare opportunity to observe a lunar crater being formed right before their eyes (assuming it hits within our view from Earth), and gain a better understanding of the violent history of the solar system.

[central_va]

Has anyone warned Alice?

[No name given]

Let’s pray and hope that doesn’t happen at all.

[bgill]

If it hits the moon hard enough, that’s the end for Earth.

[bobbo666]

Ooh, more tektites! Cool. Watch for the asteroid show, it will be glorious.

[Disambiguator]

Reminds me of those memes that say things like "Your odds of being killed by a hamster are low but never zero".

The odds are higher if the hamster is in Australia.

[Openurmind]

“The Moon is smaller than the Earth but it is still a massive object and the little asteroid cannot and will not affect its orbit in any significant way if it impacts the Moon.”

Well let’s hope so... :)

[HartleyMBaldwin]

That’s why I referred to the relative masses of the two objects.

[linMcHlp]

bttt

[Getready]

That’s right. From what I understand the moon is slowly receding from the earth. Could the blast be enough or at the right angle to knock the moon out further? Could the blast cause ejecta from to moon to hit earth?

[blackpacific]

I read somewhere that the Moon’s craters were carefully measured during the Apollo program. Then years later it was surveyed again, and new craters were measured. Based upon the rate at which craters were forming on the Moon, our idea of how old the Moon was, should have changed from billions of years to thousands of years.

The Lunar landing module had giant snow shoe pads on each of the landing legs because the scientists thought the Moon, based upon how old they thought it was, would have feet of dust on it. But when we landed, the dust was only about half an inch deep. Once more showing us that our idea of how old the Moon was, was incorrect.

God will show us how old the Moon is one day.

[SunkenCiv]

Kaboom on the Moon, eh? :^) Thanks Carry_Okie.

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• Bright Explosion on the Moon [05/17/2013]
• Moon younger than previously thought [08/17/2011]
• Cosmic Impact Site That Created Earth's Axial Tilt and Fault Lines [12/08/2010]
• LUNAR IMPACT PLUME [LCROSS team: Moon collision a "smashing success" after all] [10/19/2009]
• The Moon reveals its weirder side - SELENE mission reports on gravity anomalies. [02/16/2009]
• Moon Has Iron Core, Lunar-Rock Study Says [12/06/2008]
• Comet or Meteorite Impact Events in 1178AD? [01/03/2005]
• Giordano Bruno, the June 1975 Meteoroid Storm, Encke, and Other Taurid Complex Objects [12/27/2004]
• A Celestial Collision [09/15/2004]
• NASA Solves Moon Mystery (+Geology Picture of the Week, February 16-22, 2003) [02/21/2003]
• Moon's Youngest Crater Discovered [12/19/2002]
• Long-Destroyed Fifth Planet May Have Caused Lunar Cataclysm, Researchers Say [03/25/2002]

[Carry_Okie]

Kaboom on the Moon, eh? :^)

It would be quite the "dust up" but any effort to get close would crater.

[SMARTY]

“...but Our Moon Might Take the Hit...”

Then, we are not safe

[SunkenCiv]

The rest of the 2024 YR4 keywords, sorted:

• NASA's asteroid mission to Apophis: Key for Earth's defense [02/27/2025]
• Will Asteroid 2024 YR4 Strike Earth? NASA Revises Impact Probability [02/20/2025]
• Chance of 'city-killer' asteroid 2024 YR4 smashing into Earth rises yet again to 3.1%, NASA reports [02/18/2025]
• Odds of a Tunguska-Scale Impact in 2032 Just Doubled [02/12/2025]
• An asteroid big enough to destroy a city has a 1.9% chance of impacting Earth on December 22, 2032. [02/05/2025]
• 'City-killer' asteroid is hurtling by Earth -- and scientists are warning of its potential impact [02/02/2025]
• New Asteroid Tops NASA's Impact Risk Chart, 1.2% Chance of 2032 Collision [01/29/2025]

[SunkenCiv]

Well, the getaway is ruined because everyting is upside down there, forcing the hamsters intended victims to walk on their hands.

[mosaicwolf]

Do you think that “Good Boy” will ever come home?

[SunkenCiv]

If I get hit by debris from this, I’ll probably experience ‘roid rage.

[libertylover]

Hopefully it won’t send the moon out of our orbit.

I'm not a writer, but I've always thought it would be a good plot to have an asteroid collide with earth in a location that doesn't kill very many people but alters the earth's orbit a tad and the huge differences that would make.

[LimitedPowers]

Oh, no! This could wipe out the Moon dinosaurs!

[Az Joe]

Not really.

The closest point the Moon gets to us is about 225,623 miles, and the farthest point is about 252,088 miles.

26,000+ miles difference.

Just feeling annoying this morning.