Posted on 02/12/2025 6:38:57 AM PST by BenLurkin
At the end of 2024, astronomers detected an asteroid...the estimated orbit put it at a 1% chance of striking Earth.
As of this writing, it now has a 2.3% chance of striking Earth on December 22, 2032. While you might think this resembles the plot of Don't Look Up, none of this is too unusual.
You can see this in the image above, which indicates potential trajectory points. The 2.3% odds aren't simply the chances of a die roll. What it means is that when astronomers run 1,000 orbital simulations based on the data we have, 23 of them impact Earth.
The most probable trajectory currently estimates that it will have a close approach of 240,000 km from Earth, which is within the orbit of the Moon but not dangerously close.
So while the odds have doubled, astronomers aren't too worried.
In 2028, it will pass within 8 million kilometers of Earth. This is actually when astronomers will be able to make much more precise measurements of its orbit. We will then see whether we need to start making plans. Even if astronomers find out the odds of impact are almost 100%, we still wouldn't need to panic, for a few reasons.
We still have years to deal with 2024 YR4, and its orbit is such that we would have a good chance of deflecting it. And even if the absolute worst-case scenario were to occur, 2024 YR4 isn't large enough to cause an extinction event. The absolute nightmare scenario is that it would strike Earth in a heavily populated area.
We'd have to evacuate people from the risk zone, but we would have a few years to do that. An impact would be bad, but we could minimize the risk significantly.
(Excerpt) Read more at sciencealert.com ...
When if I triple mask? 😆
> Seldom considered in writing about using a nuclear bomb on incoming comets is the effect of blasting it into smaller pieces... Yes, a bomb imparts little blast impulse sideways.
The use of a nuke involved blowing mass off one side to adjust its trajectory, a nudge done early enough wouldn’t have to be particularly powerful. The issue with trying to deflect one of these is, the actual mass would be easier to accurately measure by trying to move it this way.
The best option is to be ready by compiling accurate data on the rare objects moving in retrograde. One of those could be of appropriate trajectory, position, and mass to act as a projectile, and deflectable without use of a nuke to meet the threatening object. The head-on impact of the two would release more energy than a nuke, and vaporize a big chunk of the larger object’s mass, likely shatter it, and alter its trajectory (-ies).
It looks like Science Alert finally got something to alert about. Doubling from slightly more than 1% to a little more than 2% is not that scary. Alert me when it doubles from 40% to 80%. That will help me decide whether I should worry about something that I can do absolutely nothing about.
Several articles from highly regarded sites stated that over time, the odds will very likely get LOWER...much lower.
It’s just the nature of things...as time goes by, they will have more of an idea and it historically skews towards a much smaller chance.
SMOD finally?
....or “vaccines”
Who cares? There is nothing anyone can do about it. This is under the file titled: You can’t do anything about it so why worry about it?
Enjoy your life. Don’t pay attention this alarmist BS.
Make sure to stay at least 6 feet away from the meteorite!
Lol, will do, got my tape measure at the ready
Good this planet needs a reboot and what’s left will eat the Leftest
Can we just defund the asteroid with DOGE?
Have a great Wednesday February 12th 2025 then! :)
LMAO
Your precious bodily fluids have obviously been compromised... You need to start drinking rain water and grain alcohol soon or Colonel Bat Guano will come see you...
Far enough out, a canister of compressed air discharging on the same x-y-z axis during the objects rotation (if any) at the right place creates course deviation. All you need is the thing to skip off the atmosphere — better if you can nudge the thing into the sun’s gravity well.
LOL Buck
Redirect it with a lander consisting of its own propulsion plus a propulsion unit to change it by the few degrees necessary to render orbit to safe one.
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