Iranian Regime tv Channel One hacked while it was airing Khamenie speech

Iranian Regime national tv Channel One hacked about an hour ago. During a broadcast of Khamenie speech, a red crosshair appeared over his face and chanting of Women. Life. Freedom. There was writing to the side saying "Rise up. Join us". Also 4 photos at the bottom of the screen of young people killed and additional writing: "The blood of our youth is dropping from your paws".

Also, there was a huge banner in the middle of Tehran highway today that read: We are no longer afraid of you. We will fight.

Also, attempted attack on IRI ambassador in Denmark. Her bodyguard was stabbed. Diplomatic Security intervened before the attacker could stab the ambassador.

Iran has warned that it will target British forces in the Chagos Islands if Donald Trump attacks the Middle Eastern nation.

After Mr Trump threatened military action against the regime if it did not make a deal with the US over its nuclear programme, a senior Iranian military official told The Telegraph that Tehran would strike the joint US-UK naval base on Diego Garcia in response to any US attack.

“There will be no distinction in targeting British or American forces if Iran is attacked from any base in the region or within the range of Iranian missiles,” he said on Saturday.

A UK government spokesman said: “We condemn these threats in the strongest terms. The UK Government continues to work with partners across the region to encourage de-escalation. The base on Diego Garcia is vital to UK and US security and plays a crucial role in maintaining regional and international security.”

https://www.yahoo.com/news/iran-target-britain-chagos-trump-190837067.html

Iran Update March 31, 2025

Iran continues to threaten the United States with military action to dissuade the United States from a strike on Iranian nuclear facilities amid new US threats to strike the nuclear facilities. US President Donald Trump stated on March 30 that “there will be a bombing” if Iran does not make a new nuclear deal.[1] Trump added that he would impose secondary tariffs on Iran if Iran made no progress towards a deal.[2] Secondary tariffs would impose sanctions on countries that trade with Iran. US officials have previously threatened military action against Iran if there were no direct negotiations.[3] Iranian officials have said they are open to indirect negotiations, though they reject direct negotiations with the United States.[4] Senior Iranian officials have also repeatedly threatened to strike US interests in the region since at least January 2025, likely to shape US decision-making and discourage a US or Israeli attack on Iran's nuclear program.[5] An unspecified senior Iranian military official told the Telegraph on March 29 that Iran would attack any base “used by Americans” to attack Iran.[6] Iranian threats to attack US allies in the region may aim to discourage allies from allowing the United States to use their facilities out of fear of Iranian retaliation.

Iranian officials have recently threatened the following responses to a US-Israeli strike on Iran. These courses of action are not mutually exclusive.

Attack US bases and forces: Iranian officials have repeatedly explicitly threatened to attack US bases and forces in the region in recent months.[7] An unspecified senior Iranian military official told Western media on March 29 that Iran would target Diego Garcia Island in the Indian Ocean if the United States attacked Iran.[8] The United States has recently increased its military presence at Diego Garcia Island, according to commercially available satellite imagery.[9] An anonymous official also told Tehran Times that Iran's missile launchers at its underground bases are loaded with missiles and “ready for launch.”[10] Iran's reported current maximum missile range is 2000 kilometers (km), and its reported maximum drone range is around 2500km.[11] Diego Garcia Island is located about 3700km from Iran's southernmost city, Pasabandar. Iran would need to significantly decrease the payload of the warhead on its medium-range missiles or otherwise decrease missile weight to launch a successful attack on Diego Garcia. Iran could target other US facilities in the region if it chose to do so. Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Air Force Brigadier General Amir Ali Hajizadeh threatened on March 31 that US bases in the region are “sitting in a glass house” near Iran.[12]

Disrupt international trade: IRGC Navy Commander Admiral Alireza Tangsiri suggested on March 29 that Iran may close the Strait of Hormuz if the United States and Israel attack Iran.[13] Tangsiri also threatened to seize ships if Iranian ships were seized.

Conduct a direct attack on Israel: Senior Iranian military commanders have recently resurfaced threats to conduct another missile attack on Israel.[14] Iran unveiled its latest precision-guided ballistic missile called the “Etemad” in February 2025.[15] Iranian media referred to the missile as the “Israeli ballistic missile” because it can reportedly hit key targets across Israel.[16] Iran's stockpile of medium-range missiles, or missiles that can reach Israel, has been severely depleted following the April and October 2024 Israeli airstrikes on Iran, however.

Iran continues to coordinate with Russia and China on nuclear issues. Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister for Legal and International Affairs Kazem Gharibabadi met with Russian Ambassador to Iran Alexey Dedov in Tehran on March 31 to discuss nuclear talks and sanctions relief.[26] Gharibabadi said Iran, Russia, and China will continue trilateral meetings and that Russia invited him to a UN Charter group meeting in Moscow in mid-April. The meeting follows a March 14 joint statement from Russia, China, and Iran that condemned US sanctions and described Iran's nuclear activities as “peaceful.”[27] It remains unclear what Iran hopes to gain from this coordination or how Russia and China plan to support Tehran under growing US pressure. CTP-ISW previously assessed that Russia is unlikely to secure US interests through mediation, particularly in talks on Iran's nuclear program and support of the Axis of Resistance.[28]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-march-31-2025

Iran Update April 1, 2025

Senior Iranian officials are continuing to threaten nuclear weaponization, likely to try to deter a potential US or Israeli strike on Iranian nuclear facilities amid new US threats to strike these facilities. Senior Supreme Leader Adviser Ali Larijani stated on March 31 that a US or Israeli strike on Iran would “force” Iran to develop a nuclear weapon to “defend its security.”[9] Western media reported in January 2025 that Larijani had made secret trips to Russia to gain Russian assistance on Iran's nuclear program.[10] Hardline Iranian Parliamentarian Ahmad Naderi separately stated on March 31 that the United States “wouldn't dare threaten to bomb” Iran if Iran “had an atomic bomb.”[11] Naderi previously made similar statements in November and December 2024.[12] Larijani and Naderi’s comments echo recent calls from Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) officials for the Supreme Leader to allow the development of a nuclear weapon.[13] The recent Iranian threats come after US President Donald Trump stated on March 30 that “there will be a bombing” if Iran does not agree to a new nuclear deal.[14]

The Yemeni Media Minister in Aden, Muammar al Eryani, claimed on March 26 that hundreds of Houthi fighters have formed the “Nasrallah Battalion” in Iraq.[62] Eryani claimed that the battalion is comprised of around 700-1,200 Houthi fighters who fled from Syria to Iraq after the fall of the Assad regime. The director of the Canada-based Iraqi Observatory for Rights and Freedom similarly stated on April 1 that the Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) is integrating Houthi fighters from the “Nasrallah Battalion” and Houthi drone and missile experts into PMF units in Diyala, Baghdad, and Jurf al Sakhr.[63] The director was likely referring to Iranian-backed Iraqi militias that are part of the PMF. Jurf al Sakhr is a previously Sunni town south of Baghdad that Iranian-backed Iraqi militia Kataib Hezbollah occupied after committing acts of sectarian cleansing against the previous residents. A CENTCOM airstrike in Jurf al Sakhr in July 2024 killed a Houthi drone expert.[64]

These reports, if accurate, would be consistent with the growing Houthi cooperation with Iranian-backed Iraqi militias in recent months. The Houthis reportedly operate three offices across Iraq and a training camp in a town controlled by Kataib Hezbollah in Diyala Province, according to the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI).[65] RUSI noted on March 19 that PMF fighters have reportedly deployed to Yemen in recent months to train Houthi fighters in combat technology. Iraqi politicians have claimed that the Iraqi federal government seeks to limit Houthi military activity in Iraq out of concern for potential US action against the Houthis in Iraq.[66]

The United States sanctioned six entities and two individuals based in Iran, the United Arab Emirates, and China on April 1 as part of the US “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran.[74] The United States sanctioned these entities and individuals for procuring components for Iranian companies involved in the Iranian drone and missile programs, including Qods Aviation Industries and Shahid Bagheri Industrial Group.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-april-1-2025

The Departments of Treasury and Justice Take Action Against Iranian Weapons Procurement Network
https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sb0066

Iran Update April 3, 2025

Iran is continuing to try to bolster its air defenses in preparation for a potential US or Israeli strike on Iran. Iran has built a new Ghadir phased-array radar in West Azerbaijan Province in northwestern Iran in recent months, according to commercially available satellite imagery.[1] An open-source analyst reported on April 2 that Iran also recently built two Ghadir radars in southern Iran near the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz. The October 2024 Israel Defense Forces (IDF) strikes on Iran damaged two Ghadir radars in southwestern Iran.[2] The operational status of these radars is unclear. Iran has conducted several air defense exercises in recent months, particularly around Iranian nuclear facilities.[3] The construction of new radars and recent exercises reflect Iran’s efforts to strengthen its air defense capabilities amid the Iranian regime’s concerns about a potential conventional conflict with the United States or Israel.

The leader of Iranian-backed Iraqi militia Kataib Sayyid al Shuhada, Abu Alaa al Walai, said on April 2 that Iranian-backed Iraqi militias will support Iran “in blood, sacrifice, and conscience whenever necessary.”[67] Walai is likely mirroring Iranian efforts to discourage a potential US or Israeli strike on Iran by implying that Iranian-backed Iraqi militias would respond to such a strike.[68]

Iranian media has continued to threaten nuclear weaponization, likely to try to dissuade a potential US or Israeli strike on Iranian nuclear facilities amid new US threats to strike these facilities. Hardline outlet Mashregh News published an article on April 2 titled “Will Iran Unveil an Atomic Bomb” that summarized recent threats from senior Iranian officials to pursue a nuclear weapon.[74] Mashregh News is reportedly close to Iranian security and intelligence organizations.[75] Mashregh News claimed that “many” people believe it is “harder for Tehran not to build a nuclear weapon than it is [for Tehran] to build one.” The article highlighted Iran’s growing stockpile of highly enriched uranium and warned that the “regional situation in recent months” could affect Iranian policy. This article comes after senior Iranian officials have repeatedly threatened to pursue a nuclear weapon and lobbied Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei to revoke his 2003 fatwa that bans the production and use of nuclear weapons.[76]

The Iranian rial depreciated from 1,029,000 rials to one US dollar on April 2 to 1,042,000 rials to one US dollar on April 3.[73]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-april-3-2025

Iran Update April 4, 2025

Senior Iranian officials appear increasingly concerned about a potential US or Israeli strike on Iran. Khatam ol Anbia Air Defense Headquarters Commander Brigadier General Alireza Sabahi Fard and IRGC Aerospace Commander Amir Ali Hajizadeh visited Iran’s Southeastern Air Defense Zone based in Bandar-e Abbas, Hormozgan Province, on April 4 to conduct an operational assessment of military units and defense capabilities at the zone.[20] The visit comes as Iran continues to pursue efforts to strengthen its air defense capabilities amid growing concerns about a potential conventional conflict with the United States or Israel.[21]

The United States continues to pursue direct negotiations with Iran to secure a comprehensive deal that will fully dismantle Iran’s nuclear program, according to an unspecified senior US official speaking to the Wall Street Journal on April 4.[22] US President Donald Trump told reporters on April 3 that direct talks “go faster.”[23] Iranian officials have repeatedly rejected direct negotiations with the United States.[24] An Iranian expert close to the regime told The Atlantic on April 3 that Iran seeks a ”secret,” two-step process that starts with indirect talks and “potentially” moves to direct negotiations.[25] US officials have previously warned that the United States will pursue military options if the Iranian regime does not engage in direct negotiations.[26] Indirect talks likely allow Iran to buy time, avoid public pressure, and preserve its image while quietly weighing US demands it may eventually have to accept in some form.

Residents of Esfahan Province held a large protest on April 4 to demand access to more water resources from the Zayandeh Rud River.[59] The protest came after farmers in Esfahan Province damaged a pipeline on April 2 that transfers water from Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari Province to Yazd Province, leading to widespread water outages and a two-day government shutdown in Yazd Province.[60] Iranian security forces fired tear gas at protesters on March 30 in Esfahan Province, where residents had gathered to protest water shortages and the continued drying of the Zayandeh Rud River, a vital regional water source for Esfahan and neighboring provinces.[61] Such protests, though limited in size, could trigger wider unrest as grievances emerge alongside mounting economic pressures, including the devaluation of the rial, high inflation, and energy shortages.[62]

The Iranian rial depreciated from 1,042,000 rials to one US dollar on April 3 to 1,050,000 rials to one US dollar on April 4.[58]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-april-4-2025

Hamas leaders asked Iran for $500 million in 2021 to destroy Israel within 2 years, documents revealed by Katz show

“I am presenting a document here for the first time, which was found in the tunnels of senior Hamas officials in Gaza, which proves a direct relationship between Iran and Yahya Sinwar and Muhammad Deif, as part of Iran’s support for the Hamas plan to destroy Israel,” Katz says during a visit to the Military Intelligence Directorate’s so-called intelligence collection and technical spoils unit — known by its Hebrew acronym Amshat.

“In the document, they ask of the commander of the [Islamic] Revolutionary Guard Corps’ Quds Force to transfer $500 million for destroying the State of Israel,” he says.

The document shows that Hamas demanded $20 million per month from Iran over two years, “to achieve these great goals, through which we will change the face of the world.”

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/hamas-leaders-asked-iran-for-500-million-in-2021-to-destroy-israel-within-2-years-documents-revealed-by-katz-show/

Iran Update April 7, 2025

Iran continued to push for indirect negotiations with the United States while rejecting direct negotiations prior to US President Donald Trump’s April 7 announcement that Iran and the United States would hold direct talks on April 12.[14] Reuters reported on April 6 that Iran is pushing back on US demands to engage in direct nuclear talks, citing an unspecified senior Iranian official.[15] Armed Forces General Staff Chief Major General Mohammad Bagheri similarly stated on April 7 that indirect talks with the United States are “acceptable,” but “there will be no direct negotiations.”[16] This is the first time a senior Iranian military official has echoed Iran’s official line on nuclear negotiations by expressing openness to indirect negotiations, though rejecting direct talks.[17] Iran reportedly seeks a “secret” two-step process that starts with indirect talks and “potentially moves” to direct talks.[18] The senior Iranian official told Reuters that indirect talks give Iran a chance to “evaluate Washington’s seriousness.”[19] Iran may use reported US demands for Iran to curtail its missile program and its role in leading the Axis of Resistance to claim that the United States is not ”serious.”[20] Senior Iranian officials have repeatedly and explicitly rejected any concessions on issues beyond its nuclear program.[21] Iranian officials also stated on April 7 that Iran wants Oman to mediate talks between the United States and Iran.[22] CTP-ISW has not observed any official Iranian responses to Trump’s announcement. CTP-ISW will provide more details and analysis in the April 8 Iran Update.

Iran continued to threaten to attack US allies or any country that may support a US strike on Iran, likely to deter a potential US or Israeli strike on Iran. Western media reported in recent days that Iran has warned Persian Gulf countries hosting US military bases, including Iraq, Kuwait, the UAE, Qatar, Turkey, and Bahrain, not to support any potential strike on Iran.[23] An unspecified Iranian official told The Times that Iran would view such support as an ”act of hostility.”[24] Reuters reported on April 6 that neighboring countries with US bases “may be in the firing line,” according to an unspecified senior Iranian official.[25] An unspecified senior Iranian military official previously told the Telegraph in late March that Iran would attack any base “used by Americans” to attack Iran.[26] Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has held several calls with his counterparts in the region in recent days, likely to encourage these states to dissuade the United States from attacking Iran.[27] CTP-ISW previously assessed that Iranian threats to attack US allies in the region may aim to discourage allies from allowing the United States to use their facilities out of fear of Iranian retaliation. Iran previously employed this strategy in October 2024 to dissuade states in the Middle East from providing Israel with assistance to launch an attack on Iran.[28]

Senior Iranian military officials appear to be preparing for possible US or Israeli strikes on Iran. Khatam ol Anbia Air Defense Headquarters Commander Brigadier General Alireza Sabahi Fard and IRGC Aerospace Force Commander Brigadier General Amir Ali Hajizadeh visited Iran’s Southern Air Defense Zone based in Bushehr Province on April 6 to conduct an operational assessment of military units and defense capabilities in the zone.[29] The visit follows a similar inspection at the Southeastern Air Defense Zone based in Bandar-e Abbas, Hormozgan Province, on April 4.[30] These ongoing inspections likely reflect Iranian efforts to ensure air defense readiness and prepare for a possible strike on its nuclear facilities. An unspecified senior Israeli official told Axios on April 4 that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and US President Donald Trump planned to discuss a potential strike on nuclear facilities—if diplomatic efforts fail—during their meeting on April 7.[31] US President Donald Trump has previously warned on March 30 that ‘there will be a bombing’ if Iran does not agree to a new nuclear deal.[32]

The Iranian rial depreciated from 1,050,000 rials to one US dollar on April 4 to 1,057,000 rials to one US dollar on April 7.[72]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-april-7-2025

Iran Update April 8, 2025

Iran may be conducting an information campaign to prepare to argue that it is already adhering to some US demands in the negotiations. Iranian officials have recently told Western media outlets that Iran is distancing itself from various proxies in the Axis of Resistance, namely the Houthis and Iranian-backed Iraqi militias.[7] Iranian officials could calculate that launching this information campaign will enable them to successfully argue that Iran is stepping back its support for its proxies. This campaign is a continuation of a long-running Iranian campaign in which Iran denies its support for many of its proxies. Iran, for example, denies that it violates the UN arms embargo to Yemen despite clear evidence that Iran ships weapons to the Houthis.[8] Iran similarly obfuscates its role in the Axis of Resistance despite its clear leadership role — including its ability to direct some groups to do Tehran’s bidding. Iran and its partners and proxies have continued to state publicly in Arabic and Farsi that they will support one another while simultaneously denying their close relationships in English to Western outlets.[9]

Iran continues to coordinate with China and Russia on nuclear issues ahead of talks with the United States, further illustrating the interaction between major US adversaries. Iranian Deputy Foreign Affairs Minister for Legal and International Affairs Kazem Gharibabadi met with his Chinese and Russian counterparts in Moscow on April 8 to discuss the Iranian nuclear issue and lifting sanctions.[10] Iran, China, and Russia issued similar statements following the meeting, emphasizing the importance of ongoing cooperation on these issues.[11] Iran, China, and Russia previously issued a joint statement in mid-March condemning the US “maximum pressure” strategy vis-a-vis Iran following a meeting of the Iranian, Chinese, and Russian deputy foreign ministers in Beijing.[12] It remains unclear what Iran hopes to gain from this coordination or how Russia or China plan to support Tehran amid growing US pressure. Russia and China, both UN Security Council members, may help block the passage of resolutions against Iran. China also remains the largest importer of Iranian oil. China’s Iranian oil imports help Iran circumvent US sanctions.[13]

Iranian-backed Iraqi militia Asaib Ahl al Haq (AAH) released an op-ed on April 8 that justified Iranian retaliation against US forces in Iraq.[71] AAH news outlet Al Ahad released a copy of an Iranian complaint filed against the Iraqi government in January 2025 protesting the Iraqi government’s failure to prevent Israeli airstrikes on Iranian facilities in October 2024. Iran reiterated its right to take “countermeasures” against foreign military forces in Iraq—referring to the United States—that enable Israeli violations of Iraqi airspace. Al Ahad claimed that the United States has prevented Iraq from developing air defense capabilities that would enable it to exert control over its airspace. Al Ahad argued that Iraqi politicians’ failure to address these violations “force Iran to exercise its legal right” to attack foreign forces in Iraq. The United States also has a legal right to target forces in Iraq—including AAH—that violate Iraq’s sovereignty and attack US forces. AAH and other Iranian-backed Iraqi groups have previously disputed this right in the past. This is consistent with CTP-ISW’s assessment that Iran and its proxies are likely shaping an information operation directed at the West.[72] This information operation attempts to obfuscate Iran’s role within the Axis of Resistance while also highlighting potential military action in response to an attack on Iran’s nuclear program. The Trump administration’s stated maximum pressure policy seeks to combat malign Iranian activity and threats to US strategic interests in the region. This information campaign is designed to influence and inject uncertainty into US political and military decision-making processes within this maximum pressure campaign.

Iran continues to expand and showcase long-range strike capabilities as part of its deterrence posture, likely to prepare for retaliation scenarios in the event of a potential Israeli or US attack. The IRGC Aerospace Force has reportedly equipped Iranian drones with anti-jamming systems, Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) receivers, and long-range antennas for image and data transmission.[86] IRGC-affiliated Tasnim News Agency claimed that the Lebanese Hezbollah used Iranian drones with these upgrades during the conflict with Israel in 2023 to evade tracking.[87] Iranian military media previously threatened to use upgraded Shahed-136 drones to strike Diego Garcia Island in retaliation for a potential US attack.[88] The integration of the new anti-jamming and communication systems could possibly enable deeper strikes and reconnaissance missions.

The Iranian rial appreciated from 1,057,000 rials to one US dollar on April 7 to 999,000 rials to one US dollar on April 8.[84] This appreciation may be partially related to the US-Iran nuclear negotiations process.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-april-8-2025

Iran Update April 9, 2025

Iran has continued to reject demands to fully dismantle its nuclear program. Some senior US and Israeli officials have recently called for the complete dismantlement of the Iranian nuclear program.[10] IRGC-affiliated media published an article on April 9 stating that Iran could agree to reduce its uranium enrichment but would “retain enrichment for non-weapons needs.”[11] Iran currently has enough 60 percent enriched uranium, if enriched further, to produce six nuclear weapons.[12] Iranian Supreme Leader Adviser Ali Shamkhani stated on April 9 that Iran’s network of nuclear facilities and technology is “stabilized, irreversible, and indestructible.”[13] An unspecified Iranian official similarly told Western media that the Iranian nuclear program “cannot be dismantled.”[14]

Israeli media reported on April 9 that the United States set a 60-day deadline, starting on April 12, for Iran to agree to a new nuclear deal.[15] Iran and the United States are expected to hold nuclear talks in Oman on April 12. Negotiations for the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) took around 20 months.[16] Israeli media reported on April 9 that Israel’s demands include Iran dismantling its nuclear program, halting ballistic missile production, ceasing support for the Axis of Resistance, and agreeing to a “long-term” deal. Iran has explicitly rejected some of these demands, including the full dismantlement of its nuclear program.[17] Trump previously warned in late March 2025 that “there will be a bombing” if Iran does not agree to a new nuclear deal.[18] Senior Iranian officials have threatened to attack US bases and forces in the Middle East in response to a potential strike on Iran.[19]

Iran reportedly recently delivered advanced missiles to Iranian-backed Iraqi militias, possibly in order to diversify its strike options in response to a potential US or Israeli strike on Iran. The Times reported on April 8 that Iran delivered an unspecified number of Arqab cruise missiles and Jamal 69 ballistic missiles to Iranian-backed Iraqi militias.[20] Arqab cruise missiles, also known as Paveh missiles, have a range of around 1,650 kilometers.[21] The Islamic Resistance in Iraq, which is a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias, frequently used Arqab missiles to attack Israel between May and November 2024.[22] Iran has reportedly supplied Iranian-backed Iraqi militias with Jamal 69 ballistic missiles, or Iranian Zolfaghar missiles, since 2018.[23] Iranian-backed Iraqi militias have increasingly threatened to target US forces in Iraq and Syria in recent days. Kataib Sayyid al Shuhada Secretary General Abu Alaa al Walai implied on April 2 that Iranian-backed Iraqi militias would respond to a US or Israeli strike on Iran.[24] The Popular Campaign to Expel the American Occupation threatened to target the US Embassy in Baghdad if Iran is attacked.[25] These threats mirror Iranian efforts to discourage a US or Israeli strike on Iran by threatening attacks on the United States in Iraq.

The United States sanctioned five Iranian entities and one individual on April 9 for supporting the Iranian nuclear program.[72] The sanctions targeted entities and individuals that support the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI) and its subordinate, the Iran Centrifuge Technology Company (TESA). US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that the US Treasury will continue to use all available tools to prevent Iran from advancing its nuclear program and “broader destabilizing objectives.”[73]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-april-9-2025

Iran Update April 10, 2025

A Senior Iranian official threatened to reduce cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) if external threats against Iran continue. Iranian Supreme Leader Adviser Ali Shamkhani stated on April 10 that Iran could expel IAEA inspectors, halt cooperation with the agency, or move enriched uranium to “safe and unknown locations” if external threats and military pressure continue.[1] Iran has already restricted IAEA oversight, including withdrawing the designation of several inspectors in September 2023 and barring other top inspectors in November 2024.[2] Shamkhani’s remarks may possibly aim to deter a potential US or Israeli strike on Iranian nuclear facilities and may also seek to instill urgency among Western officials for renewed negotiations.

China increased its Iranian oil imports by at least 80 percent in March compared to February.[3] This undermines the US “maximum pressure” campaign, which seeks to drive Iranian oil exports to zero, and illustrates cooperation between two major US adversaries. Reuters reported on April 10 that China’s imports of Iranian oil increased significantly in March amid concerns that new US sanctions could further restrict the Iranian oil supply, citing unspecified traders and analysts.[4] Estimates show that Iran shipped between 1.3 to 1.8 million barrels per day to China in March. Most of these exports are transferred off the coast of Malaysia and Singapore and reflagged as Malaysian. China remains the largest importer of Iranian oil, buying 90 percent of Iran’s total oil exports. China’s Iranian oil imports help Iran circumvent US sanctions. Iran, China, and Russia issued a joint statement in mid-March condemning the US “maximum pressure” strategy vis-a-vis Iran.[5] Chinese officials have echoed this statement since.[6]

Iran and Belarus continued to develop their strategic relationship. Iran and Belarus signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) on April 10 to expand bilateral trade along the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC).[57] This MOU comes after Iran and Belarus signed a defense MOU in early March to expand defense industrial cooperation.[58]

The Iranian rial depreciated from 999,000 rials to one US dollar on April 9 to 1,009,500 rials to one US dollar on April 10.[56]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-april-10-2025

Iran Update, April 11, 2025

Iran will likely attempt to use nuclear negotiations with the United States to delay a potential strike on its nuclear facilities and the imposition of snapback sanctions. Axios reported on April 11 that Iran may propose that Iran and the United States first negotiate an “interim deal” prior to beginning negotiations on a comprehensive nuclear agreement.[1] Iran and the P5+1 (the United States, the United Kingdom, China, France, Russia, and Germany) reached an interim deal in 2013 that froze elements of Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for temporary sanctions relief prior to further negotiations that led to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2015.[2] US President Donald Trump reportedly set a 60-day deadline to reach a new nuclear agreement, which will begin on April 12.[3] Trump previously warned on March 30 that ‘there will be a bombing’ if Iran does not agree to a new nuclear deal.[4]

Iran may calculate that an interim deal with the United States could delay or prevent the imposition of snapback sanctions by European JCPOA signatories. The E3 (France, Germany, and the United Kingdom) threatened to impose snapback sanctions on Iran in June 2025 if a new nuclear deal was not reached.[5] The June snapback deadline coincides with Trump’s reported 60-day deadline for reaching a new nuclear deal.[6] Snapback sanctions are a mechanism established by the JCPOA that allows current signatories to reimpose sanctions on Iran within thirty days in the event of “significant non-performance by Iran of JCPOA commitments.”[7] The United States cannot unilaterally trigger snapback sanctions as it withdrew from the JCPOA in 2018.[8] The snapback sanction mechanism is set to expire in October 2025.[9]

Senior Iranian officials persuaded Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei to approve negotiations with the United States in March 2025 to avoid being forced to fight a “two-front war” against the United States and the Iranian people.[10] The New York Times reported on April 11 that Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, Judiciary Chief Gholam Hossein Mohseni Ejei, and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf met with Khamenei in March to convince Khamenei to change his position on negotiations, citing two unspecified senior Iranian officials familiar with the meeting.[11] Khamenei repeatedly and explicitly rejected negotiations with the United States in February and March 2025.[12] Pezeshkian, Ejei, and Ghalibaf reportedly warned Khamenei that rejecting negotiations may trigger a strike on Iranian nuclear facilities that could escalate into a ”two-front war,” which reportedly convinced Khamenei to approve indirect negotiations with the United States in late March.[13] The three stressed that a two-front war could worsen Iran’s economy and stoke internal unrest, which may pose a threat to regime stability. The Iranian rial hit a record low—at that time—after Khamenei categorically rejected negotiations with the United States for the first time on February 7.[14] Khamenei reportedly ultimately agreed to a two-step process that starts with indirect talks and potentially moves to direct talks.[15] Khamenei laid out conditions for negotiations, stating that Iran was willing to negotiate on its nuclear program, including its uranium enrichment, but Iran’s missile program was off-limits. Khamenei also appointed his close advisors, Kamal Kharazi, Ali Larijani, and Mohammad Forouzandeh, to manage negotiations with the United States along with the Iranian foreign ministry, according to four unspecified Iranian officials speaking to The New York Times.

Iran and Armenia conducted a joint border exercise in Norduz, East Azerbaijan Province, northwestern Iran, on April 9 and 10 to enhance border security and counter-terrorism coordination.[83] The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Ground Forces’ 31st Ashura Operational Division and the Armenian Armed Forces conducted the exercise.[84] Iran and Armenia have a history of economic cooperation, but this is the first time both states have conducted a joint military exercise.[85] Iran has previously conducted joint military exercises with its other South Caucasus neighbor, Azerbaijan, Armenia’s regional rival.[86] Northwestern Iran borders the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict zone between Armenia and Azerbaijan.[87] Azerbaijan seeks to build the Zangezur Corridor through Armenia, linking Azerbaijan proper to its enclave in Nakhchivan.[88] Iran has opposed the Zangezur corridor because the corridor would impede Iran’s access to trade routes to Europe via Armenia and potentially reignite the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict.[89] Iran’s policy aims to balance its relationship with both Armenia and Azerbaijan to avoid another conflict in the South Caucasus, which has the potential to spill over or flare up ethnic Armenian and Azeri-Iranian tensions in Iran.[90]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-april-11-2025

Iran Update, April 14, 2025

Iran is increasing its diplomatic activity with third parties ahead of the April 19 nuclear talks. Iranian Deputy Foreign Affairs Minister for Legal and International Affairs Kazem Gharibabadi announced on April 14 that International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General Rafael Grossi will visit Tehran on April 16.[18] Gharibabadi traveled to Moscow on April 14 and met with Russian Undersecretary of Foreign Affairs Sergei Vershinin.[19] Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi will also travel to Moscow in the coming days.[20] Iran has consistently engaged with Russia on the nuclear issue in recent weeks.

Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei called on the Iranian armed forces to maintain maximum “hardware and software readiness” during a meeting with senior military officials and commanders on April 13.[21] Khamenei described the Iranian armed forces as Iran's “shield” and praised the diverse and unified command structure of the Iranian armed forces. Khamenei criticized the West's double standards, claiming that Western countries possess “the most catastrophic weapons” but try to prevent Iranian “defense growth.” Armed Forces General Staff Chief Major General Mohammad Bagheri presented a report during the meeting about regional developments and Iran‘s response to the October 7 War. Bagheri highlighted Iranian deterrence efforts, weapons development, and joint exercises.

Senior Iranian officials continue to be concerned about a potential US or Israeli strike on Iran. Khatam ol Anbia Air Defense Headquarters Commander Brigadier General Alireza Sabahi Fard visited the Shahid Bordbar Air Defense Group in Chabahar, Sistan and Baluchistan Province, on April 12 to assess the unit's combat capability and defense readiness.[22] Sabahi Fard emphasized that expanding missile and defense systems is essential for protecting Iranian airspace against potential threats. The visit is part of a series of inspections that Sabahi Fard has conducted to Iranian air defense sites in recent days. Sabahi Fard visited air defense zones in Bandar Abbas, Hormozgan Province, on April 4 and Bushehr Province on April 6.[23]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-april-14-2025

Iran Update, April 15, 2025

Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei may calculate that engaging in nuclear negotiations with the United States is the best option for preserving the Iranian regime’s stability. Khamenei discussed the United States-Iran nuclear talks and economic priorities during a meeting with senior Iranian government officials on April 15.[1] Khamenei called for mitigating the impact of international sanctions on the Iranian economy while simultaneously expressing support for nuclear talks with the United States. Khamenei’s main priority is preserving the Iranian regime. The New York Times reported on April 11 that President Masoud Pezeshkian, Judiciary Chief Gholam Hossein Mohseni Ejei, and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf convinced Khamenei to approve nuclear talks with the United States to avoid a potential “two-front war” against both external military threats and internal unrest.[2] Khamenei may calculate that engaging in nuclear negotiations with the United States will improve Iranian economic conditions and prevent a strike on Iranian nuclear facilities. Senior Iranian officials have recently expressed concern that Iran’s worsening economic conditions could cause internal unrest.[3] Khamenei would likely be skeptical of any agreement that Iran signs with the Trump administration, however, given that US President Donald Trump withdrew from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2018. Khamenei stated that Iran must “proceed carefully” in the negotiations with the United States and emphasized Iran’s distrust toward the United States during the meeting with government officials.

Iran is reportedly cooperating with Sunni extremist groups in Syria, including ISIS, following the collapse of its networks in Syria after the fall of the Assad regime.[27] Unspecified European and regional security officials cited by the Washington Post on April 12 claimed that Iran has reached out to Sunni extremist groups to try to destabilize the Syrian transitional government and facilitate smuggling.[28] The sources did not specify how Iran is working with extremist groups to try to destabilize the transitional government. Iran has previously cooperated with other Sunni extremist groups, including al Qaeda, to pursue various regional objectives.[29] CTP-ISW previously assessed that Iran is attempting to inflame sectarian tensions in Syria, likely to try to destabilize the Syrian transitional government and thereby re-entrench itself in Syria.[30] Several Sunni extremist groups have formed in western Syria since the fall of the Assad regime and the transitional government has fought a counterinsurgency campaign in the areas where these groups operate since early March 2025.[31] There is currently no evidence that these groups have any connections to Iran, but Iran could seek to work with these groups to try to advance its strategic objectives in Syria.

The Iranian rial depreciated from 879,000 rials to one US dollar on April 14 to 890,000 rials on April 15.[83]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-april-15-2025

Exchange rate https://www.bon-bast.com/ https://www.bon-bast.com/graph

Iran Update, April 16, 2025

Iran is unlikely to accept zero uranium enrichment and full dismantlement of its nuclear program. Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi stated on April 16 that uranium enrichment is a “real and undeniable right” and “not subject to negotiation.”[1] Araghchi stated that “contradictory” US positions do not help the negotiations and emphasized that “Iran must hear Washington's real stance” to assess whether a framework agreement is possible. Araghchi likely referred to recent remarks by US Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff regarding “zero uranium enrichment,” in which Witkoff originally said Iran could enrich uranium to 3.67 percent before clarifying that any nuclear deal must “stop and eliminate” Iranian nuclear enrichment.[2] Iranian officials have consistently rejected the concept of zero uranium enrichment and stated that Iran may reduce enrichment to Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) levels.[3] Iranian Expediency Discernment Council member and former Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Commander Mohsen Rezaei separately stated on X on April 16 that US statements reflect ”confusion and disarray” within the Trump administration and reinforce Iranian distrust caused by the U S withdrawal from the JCPOA in 2018.[4] Rezaei’s remarks align with Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s guidance in his April 15 speech. Khamenei said Iran must “proceed carefully” in the US-Iran talks and signaled deep skepticism toward the United States while supporting negotiations to mitigate pressure and preserve regime stability.[5] Khamenei will likely remain skeptical of any agreement with the Trump administration, given Trump's decision to withdraw from the JCPOA.[6]

Senior Iranian officials appear increasingly concerned about a potential US or Israeli strike on Iran. Khatam ol Anbia Air Defense Headquarters Commander Brigadier General Alireza Sabahi Fard visited Fordow Air Defense Group in Qom Province on April 16 to evaluate the unit's operational readiness.[7] The air defense site, also known as Hazrat-e Masoumeh Air Defense Group, is located approximately 16 km east of the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant (FFEP).[8] Fordow is a highly fortified underground uranium enrichment facility built into a mountain and reportedly designed to withstand military strikes, making it one of Iran's most secure nuclear sites.[9] Iran previously conducted air defense exercises near the Fordow nuclear facility in January 2025.[10] Sabahi Fard’s visit marks the fourth stop in the ongoing Iranian air defense inspections that began on April 4.[11]

The Houthis, supported by Iran, have long used communications equipment to maintain internal control and oppress the Yemeni population.[40] The Iranian regime has experience building a police and surveillance state and likely seeks to share this expertise to enhance the already strong Houthi control over Yemen's telecommunications sector and advance Houthi efforts to build a similarly strong authoritarian state.

The Iranian rial appreciated from 890,000 rials to one US dollar on April 15 to 875,000 rials to one US dollar on April 16.[73]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-april-16-2025

Iran Update, April 17, 2025

Senior Iranian political and military officials, including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, met with Saudi Defense Minister Khalid bin Salman in Tehran on April 17. Saudi Arabia may seek to reassure Iran about its positions on a potential strike on Iran and a potential ground offensive against the Houthis in Yemen.[1] Salman’s visit to Iran follows recent statements by senior Iranian officials threatening to attack any base “used by Americans” in a potential strike on Iran.[2] These threats likely seek to discourage US partners in the Middle East, including Saudi Arabia, from supporting an attack on Iran. Iran previously threatened in October 2024 that it would attack Saudi energy infrastructure if Saudi Arabia supported an Israeli attack on Iran.[3] Salman may have sought to reassure Iranian officials that Saudi Arabia would not support an attack on Iran.

Salman, accompanied by Saudi Ambassador to Yemen Mohammed al Jaber, may have also sought to reassure Iran that Saudi Arabia would not support a ground offensive against the Houthis in Yemen.[4] Salman’s visit to Iran follows recent reports that some Gulf countries and anti-Houthi factions in Yemen are exploring the possibility of a Yemeni government ground offensive against the Houthis.[5] Unspecified Saudi officials told Western media on April 14 that Saudi Arabia would not participate in a ground offensive.[6] Iran views the Houthis as an integral part of the Axis of Resistance, particularly since Israel has significantly degraded other key members of the Axis of Resistance, including Hezbollah and Hamas.[7]

A Chinese government-linked satellite company provided intelligence to the Houthis, according to US officials speaking to the Financial Times on April 17.[8] This intelligence could support Houthi attacks against US vessels and commercial shipping, which demonstrates how the Houthis are continuing to cooperate with US adversaries to disrupt global trade. The US government raised concerns to the Chinese government about Chang Guang Satellite Technology Co., Ltd. (CGSTL) providing satellite intelligence to the Houthis.[9] The Chinese government reportedly ignored these concerns. CGSTL has ties to the Chinese military through China’s military-civilian “fusion” program, which aims to integrate private sector work with military research and development, according to research done by a Washington-based security consulting firm.[10] CGSTL’s provision of satellite intelligence to the Houthis is part of ongoing Chinese, Russian, and Iranian support to the Houthis. Houthi-owned military communications and domestic surveillance companies have reportedly imported Chinese-made communications equipment.[11] Iran and Russia have provided targeting intelligence to the Houthis, which aids Houthi attacks on international shipping.[12] The Yemeni coast guard and Omani customs have previously seized shipments of Chinese-made military equipment to the Houthis, such as hydrogen fuel cells for powering missiles and drone propellers.[13] The Houthis reportedly told China and Russia in March 2024 that the Houthis would not target Chinese and Russian-flagged vessels transiting the Red Sea, according to several sources with knowledge on Houthi leadership discussions.

International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General Rafael Grossi met with senior Iranian officials in Tehran on April 16 and 17 to discuss the Iranian nuclear program and the US-Iran nuclear talks.[77] Grossi stated that the IAEA is in contact with US negotiators to discuss how the agency can serve as a bridge between Iran and the United States and help achieve a positive outcome in the talks.[78] Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi stated that the IAEA can play an important role in peacefully resolving the Iranian nuclear issue.[79] Araghchi called on the IAEA “to take a clear stance” against recent threats to the Iranian nuclear program.[80] Grossi told French media before traveling to Iran on April 16 that Iran is “not far” from possessing nuclear weapons.[81]

Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow on April 17 and delivered a message from Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei to Putin.[82] Araghchi stated that Khamenei’s message addressed important regional and international developments as well as bilateral issues.[83] Araghchi emphasized that Russo-Iranian relations are stronger and more respectful than ever before and noted that the recently-signed Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Agreement elevated the relationship between Iran and Russia to a strategic level.[84] Araghchi emphasized the importance of close coordination with Russia and China on the Iranian nuclear issue.[85] Iran, China, and Russia issued a joint statement on March 14 that condemned US sanctions on Iran and defended the Iranian nuclear program “as peaceful.”[86]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-april-17-2025

Iran Update, April 18, 2025

An unspecified senior Iranian official told Reuters on April 18 that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei will refuse any deal that requires Iran to dismantle centrifuges, halt uranium enrichment, and reduce its stockpile below Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) levels.[5] The reported Iranian proposal lacks sunset clauses, but leaves Iran's centrifuge infrastructure intact, which would allow Iran to rapidly rebuild its stockpile of enriched uranium.[6] US Secretary of State Marco Rubio separately stated on April 18 that the United States seeks a durable deal that will prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon both now and in the future.[7] The Iranian proposal does not achieve the stated US government objective of preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon now and in the future because it leaves the necessary infrastructure in place to rapidly build a weapon if the deal collapses.

Source: IAEA Verification and Monitoring Reports[8]

This graphic shows the increase in centrifuge cascades at Iranian nuclear facilities since March 2022. The FFEP is the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant.[9] The FEP is the Fuel Enrichment Plant at Natanz.[10] The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) defines an operating cascade as cascades that “have been fed with UF6 for enrichment of collected product.”[11] The JCPOA limited Iran's enrichment capacity at the Natanz FEP to no more than 5,060 IR-1 centrifuges in no more than 30 cascades.[12] IR-4 and IR-6 centrifuges are more advanced than IR-1 centrifuges, enabling Iran to enrich uranium at a faster rate.[13]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-april-18-2025

Iran Update, April 21, 2025

The Syrian General Security Services (GSS) interdicted a weapons shipment in Izraa, Daraa Province, on April 21 that was en route from Damascus to Suwayda Province.[46] GSS forces seized 40 anti-tank missiles, around 60 Iranian-made 107mm rockets, and an unspecified number of heavy machine guns.[47] GSS forces arrested a driver who had transported the weapons.[48]

Hezbollah Secretary General Naim Qassem stated on April 18 that Hezbollah will not disarm.[85] Qassem stated that Hezbollah will “confront” anyone who tries to disarm Hezbollah.[86] Qassem’s statement comes amid an Iranian-led information operation that aims to obfuscate Iranian support for its proxies. A senior Hezbollah official recently claimed as part of this information operation that Hezbollah would be willing to disarm.[87]

The IDF killed Hezbollah Unit 4400 Deputy Commander Hussein Ali Nasser in an airstrike in southern Lebanon on April 20.[88] Nasser worked with Iranian officials to facilitate Hezbollah reconstitution by smuggling weapons and funds into Lebanon, including through Beirut International Airport. Nasser facilitated the purchase of weapons from smugglers on the Syria-Lebanon border to Hezbollah.

Senior Iranian officials continue to be concerned about a potential US or Israeli strike on Iran. Khatam ol Anbia Air Defense Headquarters Commander Brigadier General Alireza Sabahi Fard assessed the operational readiness of the Siraf Air Defense Group and inspected the Shahid Bushehrian Air Defense Zone in Bushehr Province on April 20 and 21, respectively.[90] These visits are part of a series of inspections that Sabahi Fard has conducted to Iranian air defense sites in southern Iran in recent weeks.

The Iranian rial appreciated from 853,000 rials to one US dollar on April 18 to 828,000 rials to one US dollar on April 21.[89]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-april-21-2025

Iran Update, April 22, 2025

Unspecified Iranian sources told a Qatari-owned, London-based outlet on April 22 that the US-Iran nuclear talks are progressing “beyond belief.”[1] Iran could calculate that by framing the talks as positive, even if the reality does not match, Iran could delay a US or Israeli strike on Iran’s nuclear program or the imposition of snapback sanctions on Iran. The Iranian sources claimed that the United States, which was represented by US Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff, did not demand complete dismantlement of the Iranian nuclear program and expressed approval to the principle of Iran’s right to enrich uranium during the nuclear talks. Unspecified Iranian officials told the Wall Street Journal on April 12 that Iran would be willing to reduce its uranium enrichment to 3.67 percent, which is the same level agreed upon in the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).[2] The sources stated that they believe Iran and the United States will reach an agreement within the next two months.[3] Iran’s negotiating team could calculate that presenting the talks as positive could enable them to continue the talks and thereby avoid negative consequences while still failing to make any serious concessions.

Former Iranian diplomat Abdolreza Faraji Rad also told the Qatari-owned outlet on April 22 that the upcoming US-Iran technical talks will focus on “enrichment levels and centrifuges.”[4] Iranian Foreign Affairs Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei confirmed on April 22 that the US and Iran agreed to reschedule the technical talks from April 23 to April 26 at the suggestion of Oman.[5] Rad stated that the outcome of the technical talks would be presented to US Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi on April 26.[6] The head of a Tehran-based think tank stated that the technical talks will focus on what to do about Iran’s reserves of 60 percent enriched uranium.

The United States sanctioned an Iranian national and a liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) shipping network on April 22 for exporting “hundreds of millions of dollars” worth of Iranian LPG and crude oil.[69] The US Treasury stated that the revenue supports Iran’s nuclear and missile programs and its proxy groups. These new sanctions are part of the US “maximum pressure” sanctions against Iran.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-april-22-2025

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