Iran continues to threaten the United States with military action to dissuade the United States from a strike on Iranian nuclear facilities amid new US threats to strike the nuclear facilities. US President Donald Trump stated on March 30 that “there will be a bombing” if Iran does not make a new nuclear deal.[1] Trump added that he would impose secondary tariffs on Iran if Iran made no progress towards a deal.[2] Secondary tariffs would impose sanctions on countries that trade with Iran. US officials have previously threatened military action against Iran if there were no direct negotiations.[3] Iranian officials have said they are open to indirect negotiations, though they reject direct negotiations with the United States.[4] Senior Iranian officials have also repeatedly threatened to strike US interests in the region since at least January 2025, likely to shape US decision-making and discourage a US or Israeli attack on Iran's nuclear program.[5] An unspecified senior Iranian military official told the Telegraph on March 29 that Iran would attack any base “used by Americans” to attack Iran.[6] Iranian threats to attack US allies in the region may aim to discourage allies from allowing the United States to use their facilities out of fear of Iranian retaliation.
Iranian officials have recently threatened the following responses to a US-Israeli strike on Iran. These courses of action are not mutually exclusive.
Attack US bases and forces: Iranian officials have repeatedly explicitly threatened to attack US bases and forces in the region in recent months.[7] An unspecified senior Iranian military official told Western media on March 29 that Iran would target Diego Garcia Island in the Indian Ocean if the United States attacked Iran.[8] The United States has recently increased its military presence at Diego Garcia Island, according to commercially available satellite imagery.[9] An anonymous official also told Tehran Times that Iran's missile launchers at its underground bases are loaded with missiles and “ready for launch.”[10] Iran's reported current maximum missile range is 2000 kilometers (km), and its reported maximum drone range is around 2500km.[11] Diego Garcia Island is located about 3700km from Iran's southernmost city, Pasabandar. Iran would need to significantly decrease the payload of the warhead on its medium-range missiles or otherwise decrease missile weight to launch a successful attack on Diego Garcia. Iran could target other US facilities in the region if it chose to do so. Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Air Force Brigadier General Amir Ali Hajizadeh threatened on March 31 that US bases in the region are “sitting in a glass house” near Iran.[12]
Disrupt international trade: IRGC Navy Commander Admiral Alireza Tangsiri suggested on March 29 that Iran may close the Strait of Hormuz if the United States and Israel attack Iran.[13] Tangsiri also threatened to seize ships if Iranian ships were seized.
Conduct a direct attack on Israel: Senior Iranian military commanders have recently resurfaced threats to conduct another missile attack on Israel.[14] Iran unveiled its latest precision-guided ballistic missile called the “Etemad” in February 2025.[15] Iranian media referred to the missile as the “Israeli ballistic missile” because it can reportedly hit key targets across Israel.[16] Iran's stockpile of medium-range missiles, or missiles that can reach Israel, has been severely depleted following the April and October 2024 Israeli airstrikes on Iran, however.
Iran continues to coordinate with Russia and China on nuclear issues. Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister for Legal and International Affairs Kazem Gharibabadi met with Russian Ambassador to Iran Alexey Dedov in Tehran on March 31 to discuss nuclear talks and sanctions relief.[26] Gharibabadi said Iran, Russia, and China will continue trilateral meetings and that Russia invited him to a UN Charter group meeting in Moscow in mid-April. The meeting follows a March 14 joint statement from Russia, China, and Iran that condemned US sanctions and described Iran's nuclear activities as “peaceful.”[27] It remains unclear what Iran hopes to gain from this coordination or how Russia and China plan to support Tehran under growing US pressure. CTP-ISW previously assessed that Russia is unlikely to secure US interests through mediation, particularly in talks on Iran's nuclear program and support of the Axis of Resistance.[28]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-march-31-2025
Senior Iranian officials are continuing to threaten nuclear weaponization, likely to try to deter a potential US or Israeli strike on Iranian nuclear facilities amid new US threats to strike these facilities. Senior Supreme Leader Adviser Ali Larijani stated on March 31 that a US or Israeli strike on Iran would “force” Iran to develop a nuclear weapon to “defend its security.”[9] Western media reported in January 2025 that Larijani had made secret trips to Russia to gain Russian assistance on Iran's nuclear program.[10] Hardline Iranian Parliamentarian Ahmad Naderi separately stated on March 31 that the United States “wouldn't dare threaten to bomb” Iran if Iran “had an atomic bomb.”[11] Naderi previously made similar statements in November and December 2024.[12] Larijani and Naderi’s comments echo recent calls from Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) officials for the Supreme Leader to allow the development of a nuclear weapon.[13] The recent Iranian threats come after US President Donald Trump stated on March 30 that “there will be a bombing” if Iran does not agree to a new nuclear deal.[14]
The Yemeni Media Minister in Aden, Muammar al Eryani, claimed on March 26 that hundreds of Houthi fighters have formed the “Nasrallah Battalion” in Iraq.[62] Eryani claimed that the battalion is comprised of around 700-1,200 Houthi fighters who fled from Syria to Iraq after the fall of the Assad regime. The director of the Canada-based Iraqi Observatory for Rights and Freedom similarly stated on April 1 that the Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) is integrating Houthi fighters from the “Nasrallah Battalion” and Houthi drone and missile experts into PMF units in Diyala, Baghdad, and Jurf al Sakhr.[63] The director was likely referring to Iranian-backed Iraqi militias that are part of the PMF. Jurf al Sakhr is a previously Sunni town south of Baghdad that Iranian-backed Iraqi militia Kataib Hezbollah occupied after committing acts of sectarian cleansing against the previous residents. A CENTCOM airstrike in Jurf al Sakhr in July 2024 killed a Houthi drone expert.[64]
These reports, if accurate, would be consistent with the growing Houthi cooperation with Iranian-backed Iraqi militias in recent months. The Houthis reportedly operate three offices across Iraq and a training camp in a town controlled by Kataib Hezbollah in Diyala Province, according to the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI).[65] RUSI noted on March 19 that PMF fighters have reportedly deployed to Yemen in recent months to train Houthi fighters in combat technology. Iraqi politicians have claimed that the Iraqi federal government seeks to limit Houthi military activity in Iraq out of concern for potential US action against the Houthis in Iraq.[66]
The United States sanctioned six entities and two individuals based in Iran, the United Arab Emirates, and China on April 1 as part of the US “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran.[74] The United States sanctioned these entities and individuals for procuring components for Iranian companies involved in the Iranian drone and missile programs, including Qods Aviation Industries and Shahid Bagheri Industrial Group.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-april-1-2025
The Departments of Treasury and Justice Take Action Against Iranian Weapons Procurement Network
https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sb0066