Iran Update April 8, 2025
Iran may be conducting an information campaign to prepare to argue that it is already adhering to some US demands in the negotiations. Iranian officials have recently told Western media outlets that Iran is distancing itself from various proxies in the Axis of Resistance, namely the Houthis and Iranian-backed Iraqi militias.[7] Iranian officials could calculate that launching this information campaign will enable them to successfully argue that Iran is stepping back its support for its proxies. This campaign is a continuation of a long-running Iranian campaign in which Iran denies its support for many of its proxies. Iran, for example, denies that it violates the UN arms embargo to Yemen despite clear evidence that Iran ships weapons to the Houthis.[8] Iran similarly obfuscates its role in the Axis of Resistance despite its clear leadership role — including its ability to direct some groups to do Tehran’s bidding. Iran and its partners and proxies have continued to state publicly in Arabic and Farsi that they will support one another while simultaneously denying their close relationships in English to Western outlets.[9]
Iran continues to coordinate with China and Russia on nuclear issues ahead of talks with the United States, further illustrating the interaction between major US adversaries. Iranian Deputy Foreign Affairs Minister for Legal and International Affairs Kazem Gharibabadi met with his Chinese and Russian counterparts in Moscow on April 8 to discuss the Iranian nuclear issue and lifting sanctions.[10] Iran, China, and Russia issued similar statements following the meeting, emphasizing the importance of ongoing cooperation on these issues.[11] Iran, China, and Russia previously issued a joint statement in mid-March condemning the US “maximum pressure” strategy vis-a-vis Iran following a meeting of the Iranian, Chinese, and Russian deputy foreign ministers in Beijing.[12] It remains unclear what Iran hopes to gain from this coordination or how Russia or China plan to support Tehran amid growing US pressure. Russia and China, both UN Security Council members, may help block the passage of resolutions against Iran. China also remains the largest importer of Iranian oil. China’s Iranian oil imports help Iran circumvent US sanctions.[13]
Iranian-backed Iraqi militia Asaib Ahl al Haq (AAH) released an op-ed on April 8 that justified Iranian retaliation against US forces in Iraq.[71] AAH news outlet Al Ahad released a copy of an Iranian complaint filed against the Iraqi government in January 2025 protesting the Iraqi government’s failure to prevent Israeli airstrikes on Iranian facilities in October 2024. Iran reiterated its right to take “countermeasures” against foreign military forces in Iraq—referring to the United States—that enable Israeli violations of Iraqi airspace. Al Ahad claimed that the United States has prevented Iraq from developing air defense capabilities that would enable it to exert control over its airspace. Al Ahad argued that Iraqi politicians’ failure to address these violations “force Iran to exercise its legal right” to attack foreign forces in Iraq. The United States also has a legal right to target forces in Iraq—including AAH—that violate Iraq’s sovereignty and attack US forces. AAH and other Iranian-backed Iraqi groups have previously disputed this right in the past. This is consistent with CTP-ISW’s assessment that Iran and its proxies are likely shaping an information operation directed at the West.[72] This information operation attempts to obfuscate Iran’s role within the Axis of Resistance while also highlighting potential military action in response to an attack on Iran’s nuclear program. The Trump administration’s stated maximum pressure policy seeks to combat malign Iranian activity and threats to US strategic interests in the region. This information campaign is designed to influence and inject uncertainty into US political and military decision-making processes within this maximum pressure campaign.
Iran continues to expand and showcase long-range strike capabilities as part of its deterrence posture, likely to prepare for retaliation scenarios in the event of a potential Israeli or US attack. The IRGC Aerospace Force has reportedly equipped Iranian drones with anti-jamming systems, Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) receivers, and long-range antennas for image and data transmission.[86] IRGC-affiliated Tasnim News Agency claimed that the Lebanese Hezbollah used Iranian drones with these upgrades during the conflict with Israel in 2023 to evade tracking.[87] Iranian military media previously threatened to use upgraded Shahed-136 drones to strike Diego Garcia Island in retaliation for a potential US attack.[88] The integration of the new anti-jamming and communication systems could possibly enable deeper strikes and reconnaissance missions.
The Iranian rial appreciated from 1,057,000 rials to one US dollar on April 7 to 999,000 rials to one US dollar on April 8.[84] This appreciation may be partially related to the US-Iran nuclear negotiations process.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-april-8-2025
Iran Update April 9, 2025
Iran has continued to reject demands to fully dismantle its nuclear program. Some senior US and Israeli officials have recently called for the complete dismantlement of the Iranian nuclear program.[10] IRGC-affiliated media published an article on April 9 stating that Iran could agree to reduce its uranium enrichment but would “retain enrichment for non-weapons needs.”[11] Iran currently has enough 60 percent enriched uranium, if enriched further, to produce six nuclear weapons.[12] Iranian Supreme Leader Adviser Ali Shamkhani stated on April 9 that Iran’s network of nuclear facilities and technology is “stabilized, irreversible, and indestructible.”[13] An unspecified Iranian official similarly told Western media that the Iranian nuclear program “cannot be dismantled.”[14]
Israeli media reported on April 9 that the United States set a 60-day deadline, starting on April 12, for Iran to agree to a new nuclear deal.[15] Iran and the United States are expected to hold nuclear talks in Oman on April 12. Negotiations for the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) took around 20 months.[16] Israeli media reported on April 9 that Israel’s demands include Iran dismantling its nuclear program, halting ballistic missile production, ceasing support for the Axis of Resistance, and agreeing to a “long-term” deal. Iran has explicitly rejected some of these demands, including the full dismantlement of its nuclear program.[17] Trump previously warned in late March 2025 that “there will be a bombing” if Iran does not agree to a new nuclear deal.[18] Senior Iranian officials have threatened to attack US bases and forces in the Middle East in response to a potential strike on Iran.[19]
Iran reportedly recently delivered advanced missiles to Iranian-backed Iraqi militias, possibly in order to diversify its strike options in response to a potential US or Israeli strike on Iran. The Times reported on April 8 that Iran delivered an unspecified number of Arqab cruise missiles and Jamal 69 ballistic missiles to Iranian-backed Iraqi militias.[20] Arqab cruise missiles, also known as Paveh missiles, have a range of around 1,650 kilometers.[21] The Islamic Resistance in Iraq, which is a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias, frequently used Arqab missiles to attack Israel between May and November 2024.[22] Iran has reportedly supplied Iranian-backed Iraqi militias with Jamal 69 ballistic missiles, or Iranian Zolfaghar missiles, since 2018.[23] Iranian-backed Iraqi militias have increasingly threatened to target US forces in Iraq and Syria in recent days. Kataib Sayyid al Shuhada Secretary General Abu Alaa al Walai implied on April 2 that Iranian-backed Iraqi militias would respond to a US or Israeli strike on Iran.[24] The Popular Campaign to Expel the American Occupation threatened to target the US Embassy in Baghdad if Iran is attacked.[25] These threats mirror Iranian efforts to discourage a US or Israeli strike on Iran by threatening attacks on the United States in Iraq.
The United States sanctioned five Iranian entities and one individual on April 9 for supporting the Iranian nuclear program.[72] The sanctions targeted entities and individuals that support the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI) and its subordinate, the Iran Centrifuge Technology Company (TESA). US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that the US Treasury will continue to use all available tools to prevent Iran from advancing its nuclear program and “broader destabilizing objectives.”[73]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-april-9-2025