Iran Update April 9, 2025
Iran has continued to reject demands to fully dismantle its nuclear program. Some senior US and Israeli officials have recently called for the complete dismantlement of the Iranian nuclear program.[10] IRGC-affiliated media published an article on April 9 stating that Iran could agree to reduce its uranium enrichment but would “retain enrichment for non-weapons needs.”[11] Iran currently has enough 60 percent enriched uranium, if enriched further, to produce six nuclear weapons.[12] Iranian Supreme Leader Adviser Ali Shamkhani stated on April 9 that Iran’s network of nuclear facilities and technology is “stabilized, irreversible, and indestructible.”[13] An unspecified Iranian official similarly told Western media that the Iranian nuclear program “cannot be dismantled.”[14]
Israeli media reported on April 9 that the United States set a 60-day deadline, starting on April 12, for Iran to agree to a new nuclear deal.[15] Iran and the United States are expected to hold nuclear talks in Oman on April 12. Negotiations for the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) took around 20 months.[16] Israeli media reported on April 9 that Israel’s demands include Iran dismantling its nuclear program, halting ballistic missile production, ceasing support for the Axis of Resistance, and agreeing to a “long-term” deal. Iran has explicitly rejected some of these demands, including the full dismantlement of its nuclear program.[17] Trump previously warned in late March 2025 that “there will be a bombing” if Iran does not agree to a new nuclear deal.[18] Senior Iranian officials have threatened to attack US bases and forces in the Middle East in response to a potential strike on Iran.[19]
Iran reportedly recently delivered advanced missiles to Iranian-backed Iraqi militias, possibly in order to diversify its strike options in response to a potential US or Israeli strike on Iran. The Times reported on April 8 that Iran delivered an unspecified number of Arqab cruise missiles and Jamal 69 ballistic missiles to Iranian-backed Iraqi militias.[20] Arqab cruise missiles, also known as Paveh missiles, have a range of around 1,650 kilometers.[21] The Islamic Resistance in Iraq, which is a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias, frequently used Arqab missiles to attack Israel between May and November 2024.[22] Iran has reportedly supplied Iranian-backed Iraqi militias with Jamal 69 ballistic missiles, or Iranian Zolfaghar missiles, since 2018.[23] Iranian-backed Iraqi militias have increasingly threatened to target US forces in Iraq and Syria in recent days. Kataib Sayyid al Shuhada Secretary General Abu Alaa al Walai implied on April 2 that Iranian-backed Iraqi militias would respond to a US or Israeli strike on Iran.[24] The Popular Campaign to Expel the American Occupation threatened to target the US Embassy in Baghdad if Iran is attacked.[25] These threats mirror Iranian efforts to discourage a US or Israeli strike on Iran by threatening attacks on the United States in Iraq.
The United States sanctioned five Iranian entities and one individual on April 9 for supporting the Iranian nuclear program.[72] The sanctions targeted entities and individuals that support the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI) and its subordinate, the Iran Centrifuge Technology Company (TESA). US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that the US Treasury will continue to use all available tools to prevent Iran from advancing its nuclear program and “broader destabilizing objectives.”[73]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-april-9-2025
Iran Update April 10, 2025
A Senior Iranian official threatened to reduce cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) if external threats against Iran continue. Iranian Supreme Leader Adviser Ali Shamkhani stated on April 10 that Iran could expel IAEA inspectors, halt cooperation with the agency, or move enriched uranium to “safe and unknown locations” if external threats and military pressure continue.[1] Iran has already restricted IAEA oversight, including withdrawing the designation of several inspectors in September 2023 and barring other top inspectors in November 2024.[2] Shamkhani’s remarks may possibly aim to deter a potential US or Israeli strike on Iranian nuclear facilities and may also seek to instill urgency among Western officials for renewed negotiations.
China increased its Iranian oil imports by at least 80 percent in March compared to February.[3] This undermines the US “maximum pressure” campaign, which seeks to drive Iranian oil exports to zero, and illustrates cooperation between two major US adversaries. Reuters reported on April 10 that China’s imports of Iranian oil increased significantly in March amid concerns that new US sanctions could further restrict the Iranian oil supply, citing unspecified traders and analysts.[4] Estimates show that Iran shipped between 1.3 to 1.8 million barrels per day to China in March. Most of these exports are transferred off the coast of Malaysia and Singapore and reflagged as Malaysian. China remains the largest importer of Iranian oil, buying 90 percent of Iran’s total oil exports. China’s Iranian oil imports help Iran circumvent US sanctions. Iran, China, and Russia issued a joint statement in mid-March condemning the US “maximum pressure” strategy vis-a-vis Iran.[5] Chinese officials have echoed this statement since.[6]
Iran and Belarus continued to develop their strategic relationship. Iran and Belarus signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) on April 10 to expand bilateral trade along the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC).[57] This MOU comes after Iran and Belarus signed a defense MOU in early March to expand defense industrial cooperation.[58]
The Iranian rial depreciated from 999,000 rials to one US dollar on April 9 to 1,009,500 rials to one US dollar on April 10.[56]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-april-10-2025