Iran Update April 7, 2025
Iran continued to push for indirect negotiations with the United States while rejecting direct negotiations prior to US President Donald Trump’s April 7 announcement that Iran and the United States would hold direct talks on April 12.[14] Reuters reported on April 6 that Iran is pushing back on US demands to engage in direct nuclear talks, citing an unspecified senior Iranian official.[15] Armed Forces General Staff Chief Major General Mohammad Bagheri similarly stated on April 7 that indirect talks with the United States are “acceptable,” but “there will be no direct negotiations.”[16] This is the first time a senior Iranian military official has echoed Iran’s official line on nuclear negotiations by expressing openness to indirect negotiations, though rejecting direct talks.[17] Iran reportedly seeks a “secret” two-step process that starts with indirect talks and “potentially moves” to direct talks.[18] The senior Iranian official told Reuters that indirect talks give Iran a chance to “evaluate Washington’s seriousness.”[19] Iran may use reported US demands for Iran to curtail its missile program and its role in leading the Axis of Resistance to claim that the United States is not ”serious.”[20] Senior Iranian officials have repeatedly and explicitly rejected any concessions on issues beyond its nuclear program.[21] Iranian officials also stated on April 7 that Iran wants Oman to mediate talks between the United States and Iran.[22] CTP-ISW has not observed any official Iranian responses to Trump’s announcement. CTP-ISW will provide more details and analysis in the April 8 Iran Update.
Iran continued to threaten to attack US allies or any country that may support a US strike on Iran, likely to deter a potential US or Israeli strike on Iran. Western media reported in recent days that Iran has warned Persian Gulf countries hosting US military bases, including Iraq, Kuwait, the UAE, Qatar, Turkey, and Bahrain, not to support any potential strike on Iran.[23] An unspecified Iranian official told The Times that Iran would view such support as an ”act of hostility.”[24] Reuters reported on April 6 that neighboring countries with US bases “may be in the firing line,” according to an unspecified senior Iranian official.[25] An unspecified senior Iranian military official previously told the Telegraph in late March that Iran would attack any base “used by Americans” to attack Iran.[26] Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has held several calls with his counterparts in the region in recent days, likely to encourage these states to dissuade the United States from attacking Iran.[27] CTP-ISW previously assessed that Iranian threats to attack US allies in the region may aim to discourage allies from allowing the United States to use their facilities out of fear of Iranian retaliation. Iran previously employed this strategy in October 2024 to dissuade states in the Middle East from providing Israel with assistance to launch an attack on Iran.[28]
Senior Iranian military officials appear to be preparing for possible US or Israeli strikes on Iran. Khatam ol Anbia Air Defense Headquarters Commander Brigadier General Alireza Sabahi Fard and IRGC Aerospace Force Commander Brigadier General Amir Ali Hajizadeh visited Iran’s Southern Air Defense Zone based in Bushehr Province on April 6 to conduct an operational assessment of military units and defense capabilities in the zone.[29] The visit follows a similar inspection at the Southeastern Air Defense Zone based in Bandar-e Abbas, Hormozgan Province, on April 4.[30] These ongoing inspections likely reflect Iranian efforts to ensure air defense readiness and prepare for a possible strike on its nuclear facilities. An unspecified senior Israeli official told Axios on April 4 that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and US President Donald Trump planned to discuss a potential strike on nuclear facilities—if diplomatic efforts fail—during their meeting on April 7.[31] US President Donald Trump has previously warned on March 30 that ‘there will be a bombing’ if Iran does not agree to a new nuclear deal.[32]
The Iranian rial depreciated from 1,050,000 rials to one US dollar on April 4 to 1,057,000 rials to one US dollar on April 7.[72]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-april-7-2025
Iran Update April 8, 2025
Iran may be conducting an information campaign to prepare to argue that it is already adhering to some US demands in the negotiations. Iranian officials have recently told Western media outlets that Iran is distancing itself from various proxies in the Axis of Resistance, namely the Houthis and Iranian-backed Iraqi militias.[7] Iranian officials could calculate that launching this information campaign will enable them to successfully argue that Iran is stepping back its support for its proxies. This campaign is a continuation of a long-running Iranian campaign in which Iran denies its support for many of its proxies. Iran, for example, denies that it violates the UN arms embargo to Yemen despite clear evidence that Iran ships weapons to the Houthis.[8] Iran similarly obfuscates its role in the Axis of Resistance despite its clear leadership role — including its ability to direct some groups to do Tehran’s bidding. Iran and its partners and proxies have continued to state publicly in Arabic and Farsi that they will support one another while simultaneously denying their close relationships in English to Western outlets.[9]
Iran continues to coordinate with China and Russia on nuclear issues ahead of talks with the United States, further illustrating the interaction between major US adversaries. Iranian Deputy Foreign Affairs Minister for Legal and International Affairs Kazem Gharibabadi met with his Chinese and Russian counterparts in Moscow on April 8 to discuss the Iranian nuclear issue and lifting sanctions.[10] Iran, China, and Russia issued similar statements following the meeting, emphasizing the importance of ongoing cooperation on these issues.[11] Iran, China, and Russia previously issued a joint statement in mid-March condemning the US “maximum pressure” strategy vis-a-vis Iran following a meeting of the Iranian, Chinese, and Russian deputy foreign ministers in Beijing.[12] It remains unclear what Iran hopes to gain from this coordination or how Russia or China plan to support Tehran amid growing US pressure. Russia and China, both UN Security Council members, may help block the passage of resolutions against Iran. China also remains the largest importer of Iranian oil. China’s Iranian oil imports help Iran circumvent US sanctions.[13]
Iranian-backed Iraqi militia Asaib Ahl al Haq (AAH) released an op-ed on April 8 that justified Iranian retaliation against US forces in Iraq.[71] AAH news outlet Al Ahad released a copy of an Iranian complaint filed against the Iraqi government in January 2025 protesting the Iraqi government’s failure to prevent Israeli airstrikes on Iranian facilities in October 2024. Iran reiterated its right to take “countermeasures” against foreign military forces in Iraq—referring to the United States—that enable Israeli violations of Iraqi airspace. Al Ahad claimed that the United States has prevented Iraq from developing air defense capabilities that would enable it to exert control over its airspace. Al Ahad argued that Iraqi politicians’ failure to address these violations “force Iran to exercise its legal right” to attack foreign forces in Iraq. The United States also has a legal right to target forces in Iraq—including AAH—that violate Iraq’s sovereignty and attack US forces. AAH and other Iranian-backed Iraqi groups have previously disputed this right in the past. This is consistent with CTP-ISW’s assessment that Iran and its proxies are likely shaping an information operation directed at the West.[72] This information operation attempts to obfuscate Iran’s role within the Axis of Resistance while also highlighting potential military action in response to an attack on Iran’s nuclear program. The Trump administration’s stated maximum pressure policy seeks to combat malign Iranian activity and threats to US strategic interests in the region. This information campaign is designed to influence and inject uncertainty into US political and military decision-making processes within this maximum pressure campaign.
Iran continues to expand and showcase long-range strike capabilities as part of its deterrence posture, likely to prepare for retaliation scenarios in the event of a potential Israeli or US attack. The IRGC Aerospace Force has reportedly equipped Iranian drones with anti-jamming systems, Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) receivers, and long-range antennas for image and data transmission.[86] IRGC-affiliated Tasnim News Agency claimed that the Lebanese Hezbollah used Iranian drones with these upgrades during the conflict with Israel in 2023 to evade tracking.[87] Iranian military media previously threatened to use upgraded Shahed-136 drones to strike Diego Garcia Island in retaliation for a potential US attack.[88] The integration of the new anti-jamming and communication systems could possibly enable deeper strikes and reconnaissance missions.
The Iranian rial appreciated from 1,057,000 rials to one US dollar on April 7 to 999,000 rials to one US dollar on April 8.[84] This appreciation may be partially related to the US-Iran nuclear negotiations process.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-april-8-2025