Posted on 01/01/2024 5:05:22 AM PST by Godzilla
Welcome to Threat Matrix 2024
For historical reference TM2023 link is
https://freerepublic.com/focus/bloggers/4120141/posts?page=1#1
Established in 2001, after the 9/11 attack on America and now in its 23nd year, this thread is designed to identify threats to America, both internal and external, and evaluate the probability of those threats occurring and the extent of potential damage. Discussions may stray into ‘tinfoil’ territory, but the goal is to peel back and confirm information so we can make informed decisions and actions. Incredible as it seems, “tinfoil” conspiracy theories have fast become realities so they can no longer be ignored outright, but must be evaluated and compared to current events.
2023 has been “historic”: Continued inflation Record illegal immigration Record crime Record housing prices and Unprecedented prime lending rate increases. Push to globalize the economy, food production and energy
I expect 2024 to be even worse as we are facing, among many things -
- 2024 is a political year with all the deep divisions and turmoils that brings. - Political assassinations - The potential for a serious and deep recession - CBDC stripping Americans of their free use of money - Race and other ethnic wars in the US as illegals mark out territory - Continued massive increase in crime - Further movement towards implementing the goals of the WEF via its “global reset” - - Continued combat in Ukraine that could spill out into other parts of Europe - Potential Chinese move on Taiwan – breaking analysis - Israel and Hezbollah/Iran finally directly going at it. - Other political turmoil growing globally over a wide range of issues. - Potential for a wide variety of Black Swan events to create even greater problems. . And this is just a short list.
It has been my pleasure to continue this thread over the past few years. This thread hopefully is continuing the goals of when it started.
For those who care, my posts reflect my scanning of the interwebs to provide me with early warning concerning factors that can endanger my life and family. Yes, I’m what many would call a “prepper”, and proudly accept that characterization.
How can something happening half way around the world affect me personally? Wuhan virus, my friend is but one recent example. I noted it in TM Dec 2019 and was prepared when chaos hit in 2020.
Other events have secondary and tertiary affects that reach us via shortages and inflation – fossil fuel prices are the most common, as well as economic impacts. I simply share news items and often my opinions that shape my actions and preparations.
My posts are broken down into specific topics and regions. I highlight and evaluative opensource reports in those areas in regard to how it will affect the US. Sometimes it feels like trying to drink from a fire hose and I don’t expect this to let up, only increase as the year progresses.
Will we even make it to the 2024 elections without things flying apart? Will the democrats / leftist manage a way to steal the election? Will the US find itself in the early stages of a civil war / national split up? The year promises to be very bumpy, so buckle up and prepare yourselves for what is to come.
Back again.
Resurrection Sunday approaches tomorrow, so will be unlikely to post unless something serious occurs.
Remember, in these times of turmoil and anxiety, the tomb is empty as Jesus promised and He will soon return just as He also promised.
Democrat national holiday is this Monday
Quick note on some of the additional warnings I’ve been placing on various subject areas. You will see the alert status and the date issued / reviewed.
“Heightened THREAT” is a level where the potential for bad is there, but there are no defined action indicators of an even being imminent.
“Moderate” Situations where there are definite indicators or warnings of an serious actions or events.
“HIGH” - Imminent actions or ongoing situations of a critical nature
“War Warning” - Situations and statements that could be portents of a war.
I try to be conservative in what I label. In some views just about every thing should be holding in the moderate or high category. That just swamps the system from identifying / alerting to other more pressing dangers. Still kind of a work in progress.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
There are videos going viral showing plain clothed FBI agents visiting people’s houses to ask questions about offensive social media posts. These visits the FBI agents are reluctant to show ID or badges.
OBSERVATION - Two concerns, the first being FBI unannounced visits on the basis of clearly 1 amendment free speech. The second questions if they really are FBI or impersonators. Apparently in one instance, they were FBI.
Will need to watch to see if this becomes a growing trend. If continues, this clearly is an effort to intimidate citizens from media posts that criticize alleged criminals?
***
Now about 7 months out from the general elections and the radical leftists have once again appeared to have lost traction. Initially volatile protests against opponents of transgenderism have largely died down - except for some actions on college campuses. The initially massive, pro-hamas protests too have lost traction, zeroing down to much smaller scale actions.
Current protests by the left seem more focused on biden and democrat support of Israel than counter-Trump. I cannot imagine going much longer without major protests and rioting, but there is no fuel wood to catch from the kindling so far. Common sense and historical reality screams that massive protest/riots should be ramping up. Are they waiting until July and the RNC convention?
Speaking of the RNC convention -
(FO) According to left wing media, the Milwaukee Public Works Committee may block a permit for the “Coalition to March Against the RNC” to protest the Republican National Convention (RNC) on 15 July.
According to one report, the Milwaukee Police Department had reserved the right to revoke the permit if any of the protest organizers had previously engaged in destructive or violent behavior during a political march or rally.
Following public opposition, the Public Works Committee will determine the parade route, time allotted for the march, and ultimately, if the permit is revoked due to possible violent or destructive behavior.
OBSERVATION - I expect a lot of Antifa et al protesting against the RNC. What is still flying under the radar is the probability of large, violent protests at the DNC convention with the convergence of anti-Israel and anti-illegal (predominantly black) protests.
Terrorism - Heightened THREAT Mar 30 2024
Ramadan thru about April 8.
This warning UPDATED as of March 30, 2024
ELEVATED RISK - Potential military action against Iranian assets for the attack that killed US forces in Jordan could result in Iranian terror groups here in the US to activate and conduct terror ops here. These attacks can range from infrastructure destruction (water, power, communications, etc) to mass casualty events or attacks on political candidates - heavily leaning against current administration but also Trump as well. So far the govt hasn’t come out with any warnings but the risk has increased significantly the last 24 hours, based on common sense and stated goals of the Islamist movement/Iran.
***
The official ISIS spokesman has released a statement calling for “lone wolf” supporters to start carrying out attacks in US, Europe and Israel against “Jews and Christians”
Economy-
Both inflation-adjusted (“Real”) Disposable Personal Income (DPI) and the average American’s personal savings rate declined sharply in February, data released Friday by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) show.
Seasonally-adjusted Disposable Personal Income, rose 0.2 percent in February, recording the slowest month-to-month growth since last October (also 0.2 percent).
In real terms, however, disposable personal income (personal income less personal current taxes), declined 0.1 percent, based on chained (2017) dollars. Real DPI had been rising at a decreasing rate (month-to-month), from 0.4 in November, to 0.2 in December, to 0.0 in January, before February’s decline.
Real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) rose 0.4 percent, following January’s 0.2 percent drop and December’s 0.5 percent rise.
With real disposable income down and expenditures up, Americans’ personal savings rate fell to the lowest level in more than two years. On January 1, 2024, the savings rate was 4.1 percent. By February 1, it had dropped to 3.6 percent – the lowest savings rate since it was 3.4 percent on December 1, 2022.
OBSERVATION - A typical Friday data dump of bad news. Numbers indicate that the ‘bideneconomics’ is a failure.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
According to CEO of GCaptain and maritime journalist John Konrad, four Ready Reserve Force ships are stuck in the Baltimore port — the SS Antares, MV Cape Washington, MV Gary I. Gordon, and the SS Denebola.
He said the four ships being stuck is a “huge problem if a war starts [but] not much of a problem if the next few months are peaceful.”
“The big problem with that is two of the stuck ships are SL-7 rapid response ships,” he said, referring to the Antares and the Denebola. “SL-7s are the first to go if the balloon goes up because no other cargo ships have their speed,” he said.
OBSERVATION - These are not the only vessels of their kind as the other are distributed across the ports in this country. It does demonstrate a loss of ability to get supplies across the Atlantic in the event of a blow-up in Europe or the Middle East..
***
Different branches of the United States Armed Forces violated their own rules in handling requests for exemptions from the military’s Wuhan coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccine mandate.
This is according to a report from the Inspector General of the Department of Defense, which found that both the Army and the Air Force went well over time requirements for processing exemption requests.
In a sampling of 12 religious exemption requests submitted to the Army, the average processing time was 192 days. The Army requirement is to complete reviews for exemption applications within 90 days.
In a sampling of 35 religious accommodation requests submitted to the Air Force, the branch took an average of 168 days to process them despite the branch’s requirement being 30 days for processing.
As of January 2023, when the mandate was pulled because of a new law, more than 16,200 religious exemption requests had been filed. Just 339 had been approved.
OBSERVATION - This is just the tip of the iceberg in the foul manner the military handled the wuhan jabs. Lawsuits are in progress over the illegal use of the uncleared version of the jab as well as blanket / form letter rejections of exemption requests as well as now law suits over the vast number of harmful reactions from the jab, including heart disease, fertility issues, cancers etc. Calls for accountability, but I’m doubtful anyone will be charged.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –
A mystery illness that’s impacted dairy herds in the Texas Panhandle, New Mexico and Kansas now has a diagnosis: Influenza A. USDA says genetic sequencing revealed it’s the same strain of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) that’s been in the U.S. for two years.
APHIS says the “National Veterinary Services Laboratories” detected Influenza “A” in samples from several impacted herds in Texas, Kansas and New Mexico. The virus is carried by wild waterfowl, which experts think is how the illness is spreading. Even with the diagnosis, USDA is still not recommending movement restrictions of animals.
According to the Texas Department of Agriculture, Texas Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller received confirmation from the United States Secretary of Agriculture, Tom Vilsack, and the Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) that the mystery disease has been identified as a strain of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) commonly known as Bird Flu. To date, three dairies in Texas and one in Kansas have tested positive for HPAI.
USDA reports that affected dairy cows do not appear to be transmitting the virus to other cattle within the same herd. APHIS says based on findings from Texas, “the detections appear to have been introduced by wild birds. Initial testing by the National Veterinary Services Laboratories has not found changes to the virus that would make it more transmissible to humans, which would indicate that the current risk to the public remains low.”
OBSERVATION - That this virus has accomplished a jump across species lines should be of a concern. So far the mutation hasn’t had the lethality observed in flocks. But watch should be maintained in the event it mutates further to infect humans.
POLITICAL FRONT –
July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
See CW2 above for comments on convention riots/protests.
China –
See “Philippines” below
Phillipines –
Philippines President Ferdinand Marcos, Jr. warned that his government was formulating a response to Chinese aggression within their disputed territory. “Filipinos do not yield,” he added. A spokesman for the Chinese defense ministry said the Philippines were headed “down a dangerous path.”
OBSERVATION - This follows the recent ‘fire hose’ attack by Chinese Coast Guard vessels against Philippine resupply ships. Philippine sailors were injured in the assault. One of these days lead instead of water will be flying.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Mar 21, 2024.
Russia has taken advantage of Ukrainian ammo shortages, forcing them into primary defensive operations, and has seized the initiative following the fall of Avdiivka. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. The attacks are scattered along the front, concentrating on five axises of attack -
- Avdiivka,
- Maryinka,
- Robotyne,
- Kremenka and
- Bakhmut.
Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.
With the exception of Avdiivka, initial Russia attacks along the other axises have had poor results and exceptionally heavy losses. Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with. In some cases, over 70% of these newer tanks have been destroyed or captured by Ukraine.
In these other attacks, Russia continues to make poor use of fire and maneuver, preferring tank/armor ‘charges’ across open areas and down roads. This brings them into prepared kill zones where these forces are stopped and destroyed.
The most significant change in Russian tactics is on the Avdiivka front, where Russian is doing a much better job of launching what one could consider combined arms attacks.
When Ukraine lacks the artillery, Russian forces are able to penetrate in mass and overwhelm the fewer Ukrainian defenders.
Russian organization and capabilities make it unlikely that they will be able to quickly take advantage of penetrations into Ukrainian defenses. Poor training and lack of leadership at all levels, combined with poor logistic trains, will prevent any major breakouts beyond initial penetration of lines.
Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage. Russia is relying heavily on N Korean artillery rounds and Iranian drone/missiles.
Russian appears to be continuing to shepherd its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2022./23 This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage. Ammo shortages are starting to impact Ukraine ADA defenses.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. Ukraine continues to engage and destroy Russian naval vessels..
While the Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine, early in this winter/spring offensive, Russian has more aggressively conducted CAS in support of ground troops, reflecting ADA shortages. As a result, Russia has been able to locally seize air superiority at key locations along the front - the first time in two years of fighting. This has been at a cost, with a number Su-34/35 aircraft being lost in the last part of February alone as well as critical A50 AWAC systems.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.
Unknowns at this time are how soon ammo supples will start hitting Ukrainian units. Long range ATACMS and German Taurus cruise missiles may be coming on line soon for Ukraine as well as F-16s (now reportedly due in late spring/early summer). But the most critical item is artillery ammo.
*****
The Russian navy’s Pacific Fleet has confirmed that it sent several of its warships through the Bab al-Mandab Strait and into the Red Sea - See “Israel” below.
***
The Russian Orthodox Church has approved a document that deems President Vladimir Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine a “Holy War.”
The declaration came during a congress of the World Russian People’s Council in which religious, political and cultural figures in the country met at the site of Moscow’s Cathedral of Christ the Savior, a focal point for the Orthodox faith in Russia.
https://www.newsweek.com/russia-ukraine-war-holy-1884577
Logistics –
Russia has dramatically increased imports of gasoline from Belarus to make up for production losses to Ukraine drones. Russia has essentially ceased out of country exports of gasoline in order to maintain domestic and military supplies.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 30-60 range with some local highs into the 70s. No significant precipitation in the forecast.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down 9 of 15 Shahed drones. Selydove of Donetsk region was hit as a result of Russian missile strike with 2 S-300 missiles.
Thurs/Fri -Ukrainian air defense shot down 58 of 60 Shahed drones, 17 of 21 Kh-101 cruise missiles, 5 of 9 Kh-59 missiles, 4 of 4 Iskander-K cruise missiles. Russian army also launched 3 Kh47m2 missiles, 2 Iskander-M missiles. Most were targeting the Ukrainian power grid
On Friday, In occupied Crimea, Russian air defense units shot down their own fighter/bombers in a friendly fire incident. Conflicting information on whether it was Su-35 or Su-27.
Ground fighting along the fronts remains static.
Outlook —
An initial assessment of the Russian offensive since Oct 23 is that they have captured only about 195 sq miles. Most of this in the Avdiivka sector. Though Ukraine is in crisis mode for artillery ammo, their drone production sector is exploding (no pun intended) and in some ways making up for shortages. Russia is still struggling to counter the tactical drone blitz that not only nails front line units - but is increasingly going deeper after supply and logistical targets.
It looks like the icejqm is breaking and Ukraine will be getting a lot of artillery ammo in the near future. This will serve to reinforce Ukraine defenses and probably end for all practical purposes the Russian ground offensive until later this year.
Russia has stepped up their attack on the Ukraine power grid, hitting dams and coal plants with associated electrical switching yards hard with their better, more difficult to intercept missiles. The question is beginning to shift on how much longer can Russia support these attacks with their limited missile stockpiles. A lot depends on how quickly and how much support the Russians can get from Iran for ballistic missiles. News of use of N Korean missiles has dropped off the radar screen, due I suspect in part to the poor quality of the systems. Iran, OTOH have far better quality and proven systems. At this stage, the problem is how to get the massive quantities necessary from Iran to Russia. the other problem is the growing storm clouds of a potential direct conflict with Israel.
Moldova/Transnistria -
Reports that Russian missiles once again violated Moldovan airspace in attacking Ukraine.
Belarus -
Combat readiness inspection of the 19th Mechanized Brigade continues. The proximity of these exercises to the Suwałki Gap has raised some concerns over the potential of a quick attack to link Belarus to Kaliningrad
Suwałki Gap, also known as the Suwałki corridor, is a sparsely populated area around the border between Lithuania and Poland, and centers on the shortest path between Belarus and the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad Oblast on the Polish side of the border.
Europe / NATO General –
Romania has announced that they have found the debris of a Russian suicide drone near Braila. It’s the 5th Russian suicide drone to strike Romania since the war started.
***
Poland suspends the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe, the document was signed by President Duda.
The denunciation means that Warsaw will no longer fulfill the treaty’s provisions regarding the number of armed forces and their locations
***
Over 1,600 European planes have been impacted by GPS interference in less than two days, in the Baltic Region.
***
Estonia’s top military general said the country needs to double defense spending over the next two years to inflict a decisive defeat against a possible Russian invasion, which he says could come in three years. Polish President Donald Tusk recently said NATO is in a “pre-war era,” while Putin continues to say accusations of a Russian invasion are “nonsense.”
***
Polish and Czech intelligence services say they raided a Russian spy network in Poland and a Czech-based “Russian propaganda” group that “spread information discouraging the European Union from sending aid to Ukraine.”
SERBIA / KOSOVO -
Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic sparked concerns across Europe after he issued a grim and enigmatic statement of threats to Serbia. So far there have been no indicators of any impending issue that would rise to the level of concern expressed by Vucic.
ISRAEL –
Dates to remember -
Ramadan March 11 - April 8
Key overnight developments -
- IAF airstrike takes out major ammo and other military supply dumps near Aleppo.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still 105 being held hostage in Gaza.
***
More UN calls for ceasefire and allowing food into Gaza
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Intensive fighting in western Khan Yunis overnight.
Intense fighting continues around the Shifa Hospital complex.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
IAF and artillery continue to conduct strikes throughout S Lebanon.
For the second or third time this month, Hezbollah appears to be conducting a major exercise in and around the Lebanese capital of Beirut to test the deployment readiness of heavy combat forces as well as the evacuation capability of high-ranking leadership from command centers in the city; this likely continues to be preparation for an Israeli ground invasion of Southern Lebanon which would involve significant missile and airstrikes against Hezbollah assets in Beirut.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
AFP reports that 36 Syrian soldiers have been killed in an Israeli strike near Aleppo. Israeli airstrikes against IRGC & Assad regime weapons depots near the Aleppo Airport & other places in Syria
The video shows massive secondary explosions as the Iranian weapons explode after the airstrikes. Hezbollah announces in a statement the killing of 3 of its members in Syria as a result of the strike.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Israeli security forces conducted numerous raids overnight at multiple locations across the West Bank.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Jordanian official: “Hamas is inciting and trying to ignite unrest inside the kingdom. We will not allow it to achieve its goal.”
***
The Russian navy’s Pacific Fleet has confirmed that it sent several of its warships through the Bab al-Mandab Strait and into the Red Sea, at a moment Houthi attacks against international shipping is ongoing, and as the waters are still being patrolled by the US-led military coalition.
Russian defense ministry sources identified that the Russian cruiser Varyag and the frigate Marshal Shaposhnikov are engaged in the patrol mission, but it remains unclear whether additional support vessels are participating as well.
State-run TASS describes that the warships are carrying out “assigned tasks within the framework of the long-range sea campaign.” The ultimate destination of the vessels has not been disclosed.
The Varyag and Marshal Shaposhnikov had earlier this month participated in joint naval drills involving Iran, China, and Russia in the Indian Ocean - which Moscow described at the time as practicing “safety in maritime economic activities.”
OBSERVATION - Some currently believe the ships are enroute to the Med Sea.
——— FORECAST ————————-
Activity around Shifa Hospital continues to be hot, as it appears that Hamas elements not only migrated into the hospital (now cleared out), but the remnants of tunnel networks near and around it. Some see this as a “honey pot’ set up by Israel to lure Hamas elements into what they think is a ‘safe zone’ only to allow them to be concentrated and eliminated more easily.
Special note of the Hezbollah exercises in/around Beirut. These are an clear indicator for the preparation for war. Hezbollah’s eyes have been opened up to the fact that Israel will not play by its rules this time around and that Hezbollah centers in the Beirut region will be fair game.
Post Oct7th analysis of Hama’s attacks indicate the threat that Israel was facing from Hezbollah. Basically, Hamas tipped the hand. Hezbollah’s plan was similar to how Hamas attacked. It would begin with a massive rocket attack which would provide cover for Hezbollah ground elements to invade into Israel to seize critical territory before the IDF could muster a counter attack. The events of Oct 7 stripped that element of surprise away for Hezbollah as IDF forces initially deployed in force in the north before responding to the terror attacks out of Gaza.
Hezbollah’s game plan going forward will still rely upon a massive rocket/missile attack, but the accompanying ‘surprise’ ground assault has lost its punch now with increased Israeli surveillance and force readiness. I suspect that Hezbollah may be shifting to a more defensive posture than offensive on the ground.
Finally, Russian naval vessels plying thru the Red Sea is an interesting scenario - given the growing friendship between Russian and Iran and Iran’s support of the Houthis. I doubt that they will interfere with operations against Houthis but we will know better in a couple days.
AMEN and AMEN!!!!!
Even so come quickly, Lord Jesus.
Amen to that. Amen indeed.
Democrat national holiday today
Don’t jump at all ‘news’ articles today.
Quick note on some of the additional warnings I’ve been placing on various subject areas. You will see the alert status and the date issued / reviewed.
“Heightened THREAT” is a level where the potential for bad is there, but there are no defined action indicators of an even being imminent.
“Moderate” Situations where there are definite indicators or warnings of an serious actions or events.
“HIGH” - Imminent actions or ongoing situations of a critical nature
“War Warning” - Situations and statements that could be portents of a war.
I try to be conservative in what I label. In some views just about every thing should be holding in the moderate or high category. That just swamps the system from identifying / alerting to other more pressing dangers. Still kind of a work in progress.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
The DOJ is ordering Google to release the names and addresses of YouTube viewers who watched specific videos. (Fox)
OBSERVATION - Some are believing this to be linked to the recent visitations by the FBI to various folks and their posts on social media.
***
Pro-hamas et al claim the establishment of an “Autonomous Zone for Palestine” in Manhattan, NYC. It is based loosely on the CHAZ concept seen in Seattle in 2020.
***
Pro-hamas and even Transtifias show up to disturb Christian Services marking the Resurrection of Jesus. Scattered vandalism noted.
Terrorism - Heightened THREAT Mar 30 2024
Ramadan thru about April 8.
This warning UPDATED as of March 30, 2024
ELEVATED RISK - Potential military action against Iranian assets for the attack that killed US forces in Jordan could result in Iranian terror groups here in the US to activate and conduct terror ops here. These attacks can range from infrastructure destruction (water, power, communications, etc) to mass casualty events or attacks on political candidates - heavily leaning against current administration but also Trump as well. So far the govt hasn’t come out with any warnings but the risk has increased significantly the last 24 hours, based on common sense and stated goals of the Islamist movement/Iran.
***
The official ISIS spokesman has released a statement calling for “lone wolf” supporters to start carrying out attacks in US, Europe and Israel against “Jews and Christians”
***
Listing this here for now -
A Chinese national who entered the U.S. illegally was arrested after sneaking onto a Marine Corps base in California and refusing to leave, U.S. Customs and Border Protection confirmed. Border Patrol agents confirmed to a local news outlet that the Chinese national was arrested Wednesday after entering onto the Marine Corps base in Twentynine Palms. “His purpose & intent behind his actions are still being investigated,” Border Patrol Chief Patrol Agent Gregory K. Bovino posted on X.
According to the Daily Mail, there have been over 100 instances of Chinese nationals infiltrating military bases in the U.S. over the past few years. This includes over 100 that have illegally gone to Guam over the past couple years.
OBSERVATION - The threat from Chinese agents against US infrastructure continues to grow and the latest are pretty aggressive actions.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
US Army Corps of Engineers has mobilized three massive cranes to begin the removal of debris at the Baltimore harbor from the collapse of the Francis Scott Key bridge. The first sections were remove yesterday.
Two of the many Navy ‘fast transport’ cargo ships are trapped in the harbor.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –
Study of the latest “excess death” reports from the CDC indicate that since the start of the jab in Nov 2021, there were 1,069,943 excess deaths were recorded among people aged over 65 from the first time they were offered the COVID-19 vaccine to week 1 of 2024.
NOTE- this is nearly the number of deaths ‘ATTRIBUTED’ to wuhan (remember, they count it as wuhan if detected but death by other cause).
Biden / Harris Watch –
Biden et al was hammered over the weekend over the exclusion of any ‘religion’ symbols’ for Easter art and even more so for recognizing “Transgender Visibility Day” over that of Easter. Where politics and religion are crossing, biden continues to display total disregard for the vast number of Christians in this country - regardless of his claims to be a ‘uniter’.
Illegal Immigration –
A magistrate judge in El Paso has ordered Texas to release illegals arrested for their violent entry into the country last week.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Mar 21, 2024.
Russia has taken advantage of Ukrainian ammo shortages, forcing them into primary defensive operations, and has seized the initiative following the fall of Avdiivka. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. The attacks are scattered along the front, concentrating on five axises of attack -
- Avdiivka,
- Maryinka,
- Robotyne,
- Kremenka and
- Bakhmut.
Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.
With the exception of Avdiivka, initial Russia attacks along the other axises have had poor results and exceptionally heavy losses. Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with. In some cases, over 70% of these newer tanks have been destroyed or captured by Ukraine.
In these other attacks, Russia continues to make poor use of fire and maneuver, preferring tank/armor ‘charges’ across open areas and down roads. This brings them into prepared kill zones where these forces are stopped and destroyed.
The most significant change in Russian tactics is on the Avdiivka front, where Russian is doing a much better job of launching what one could consider combined arms attacks.
When Ukraine lacks the artillery, Russian forces are able to penetrate in mass and overwhelm the fewer Ukrainian defenders.
Russian organization and capabilities make it unlikely that they will be able to quickly take advantage of penetrations into Ukrainian defenses. Poor training and lack of leadership at all levels, combined with poor logistic trains, will prevent any major breakouts beyond initial penetration of lines.
Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage. Russia is relying heavily on N Korean artillery rounds and Iranian drone/missiles.
Russian appears to be continuing to shepherd its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2022./23 This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage. Ammo shortages are starting to impact Ukraine ADA defenses.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. Ukraine continues to engage and destroy Russian naval vessels..
While the Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine, early in this winter/spring offensive, Russian has more aggressively conducted CAS in support of ground troops, reflecting ADA shortages. As a result, Russia has been able to locally seize air superiority at key locations along the front - the first time in two years of fighting. This has been at a cost, with a number Su-34/35 aircraft being lost in the last part of February alone as well as critical A50 AWAC systems.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.
Unknowns at this time are how soon ammo supples will start hitting Ukrainian units. Long range ATACMS and German Taurus cruise missiles may be coming on line soon for Ukraine as well as F-16s (now reportedly due in late spring/early summer). But the most critical item is artillery ammo.
*****
Russia: Fish processing plant burned down in Khimki, Moscow. Arson suspected - most of the employees are migrants from Tajikistan, the exact demographic facing repressions and mass arrests from the Kremlin
Russia is demanding that Ukraine hand over all people connected with terrorist acts committed in Russia, including the head of the country’s SBU Security Service, the foreign ministry said on Sunday.
“The Russian side demands that the Kyiv regime immediately cease all support for terrorist activity, extradite guilty parties and compensate the victims for damages,” the ministry statement said.
“Ukraine’s violation of its obligations under anti-terrorist conventions will result in it being held to account in international legal terms.”
Russian Personnel Issues –-
Russia is reportedly recruiting about 30,000 military personnel every month to participate in the war. This rapid mobilization pace enables Russia to sustain heavy losses while continuing attacks that deplete the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Putin’s signed a decree for the spring conscription, calling up 150,000 citizens for a years statutory military service.
NOTE - This appears to be the routine annual call up of conscripts and nothing in addition.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 30-60 range with some local highs into the 70s. No significant precipitation in the forecast.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Saturday night - Ukrainian air defense shot down 9 of 11 Shahed drones and 9 of 14 Kh-101 cruise missiles
Russian aviation launching guided bombs towards Kharkiv region.
Ukrainian forces appear to have repelled a Russian battalion-sized mechanized assault near Avdiivka, Donetsk Oblast, on March 30 — the first battalion-sized mechanized assault since Russian forces began the campaign to seize Avdiivka in late October 2023.
The assault occurred near the village of Tonenke in the Avdiivka sector. The Russians used a significant amount of heavy equipment: 36 tanks, 12 BMP.
Ukraine destroyed 12 tanks and 8 BMP out of that assault force, forcing the remainder to retreat.
Bakhmut -
Russian forces attempting to push towards Chasiv Yar, west of Bakhmut.
Outlook —
The extent that Ukraine - a country without a navy - has devastated and neutralized the Black Sea Fleet is amazing. Some statistics I came up illustrate that clearly
Kalibr launches before Ukraine’s Black Sea Fleet Strikes:
January 2023 - 40 launched
February 2023 -32 launched
March-April 2023 - 18 launched
May 2023 - 29 launched
June 2023 - 20 launched
July 2023 - 55 launched
August 2024 - 32 launched
September 2023 - 14 launched
Ukraine’s strikes on the Russian Black Sea Fleet Headquarters in Sevastopol and strikes on two Russian ships in Sevastopol at the middle to end of September
October 2023 - 0 launched
November 2023 - 0 launched
December 2023 - 0 launched
January 2024 - 3 launched
February 2024 - 5 launched
March 2024 - 0 launched
In fact, reports now indicate that remaining Russian naval vessels have departed ports in Crimea for ports farther to the east in Russia. This accounts for the shift in Russian ‘deep strike’ attacks being mostly done by strategic bombers/cruise missiles and Iranian drones - easier to take down by ADA. The Kaliber missile is much harder to take down.
The battalion sized assault in the Avdivvka sector illustrates that Russia is placing a priority on the offensive there. I haven’t reviewed videos of the attack yet, but given the losses I suspect that it is another one of the Russians running into the open, single file and going straight into a kill zone. No real fire and maneuver to speak of to cover the assault.
Moldova/Transnistria -
Reports that Russian missiles once again violated Moldovan airspace in attacking Ukraine over the weekend.
ISRAEL –
Dates to remember -
Ramadan March 11 - April 8
Key overnight developments -
- IDF officially pulling out of the Shifa Hospital complex
- Israel believes only 60-70 hostages are still alive.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
***
Israel’s official count for the number of people still being held hostage in the Gaza Strip remains at 134 mostly Israeli citizens as well as some foreigners, which includes possibly deceased victims. Amid stalled truce negotiations in Qatar, the Israeli newspaper Haaretz has revealed that Israeli officials believe only 60 to 70 Israeli hostages in Gaza are still alive.
***
Leftists protested in Tel Aviv Sunday demanding more efforts to free hostages and generally oppose Netanyahu.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said Sunday that senior Hamas operatives captured by troops in the Gaza Strip have told interrogators “the group is collapsing from within.” “In the last week or two, hundreds of terrorists have been captured and what they say about what happened to them tells the whole story. They say that Hamas is collapsing from within, the price they are paying is very heavy,” Gallant said following an assessment at the 98th Division’s headquarters.
OBSERVATION - While one should note that there is a lot of propaganda wrapped up in this statement, the fundamentals appear to be on track.
***
Operations in the Shifa Hospital complex are reportedly winding down and Israeli forces are pulling out. This follows a two week plus battle with approximately 1000 hamas terrorists who set up shop in the hospital, apparently thinking it was now ‘safe’ to do so since the initial Israeli action clearing the hospital and ground.
The Nahal Brigade’s reconnaissance unit found weapons, including mortars, explosive devices, sniper rifles, assault rifles, handguns and other military equipment hidden inside patient pillows and beds, and in the dropped ceilings and walls of the building, according to the IDF.
The reconnaissance unit also encountered and killed senior Hamas operatives Fadi Dweik and Zakaria Najib during a chase and exchange of fire in the maternity ward last week.
During the operation, about 350 patients and medical staff at Shifa Hospital were evacuated by the IDF to a “designated compound” in another part of the complex, where the military has provided them with humanitarian aid and supplies.
***
In general, over the weekend Israeli operations were conducted against Hamas forces conducted clearing operations in and around al Shifa Hospital in Gaza City.
Central Gaza: The IDF said that its Air Force conducted a drone strike targeting a PIJ command-and-control center in the al Aqsa Hospital complex in Deir al Balah.
Southern Gaza: Israeli forces continued to conduct clearing operations in Khan Younis.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
IAF and artillery continue to conduct strikes throughout S Lebanon.
The Israeli army announces the bombing of about 10 Hezbollah sites in Rashaya Al-Fakhar, southern Lebanon
The Israeli Air Force struck and killed Hezbollah’s Deputy commander of its Rocket and Missile Unit on Friday in an airstrike in Southern Lebanon, the Israeli military announced.
“Ali was considered to be a significant source of knowledge in the terrorist organization and leader in the field of rockets. He was also one of the leaders for heavy-warhead rocket fire and responsible for conducting and planning attacks against Israeli civilians,” the Israel Defense Forces said in a statement.
***
Unconfirmed reports from Syrian and Hezbollah Sources are claiming that the Israeli Defense Force have begun to remove several minefields in the Northern Golan Heights, (Shebaa Farms area) in a possible attempt to avoid a direct offensive against Hezbollah into Southern Lebanon and instead bypass it towards the central parts of the country.
OBSERVATION - Indicator of an impending attack. If one looks at the map of the region, the Shebaa Farms is on the northern tip of the Golan Heights region controlled by Israel. An attack in this region would likely drive due west towards the Med, cutting thru Hezbollah rear areas and even threatening higher level HQ in the northern Bekaa Valley. This would be combined by an Israeli assault northward from the current border region, catching the bulk of the Hezbollah forces in the middle being forced to fight in two directions.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Israeli security forces conducted numerous raids overnight at multiple locations across the West Bank. Security forces arrested 22 Palestinians, including 4 women, in the West Bank since yesterday
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
The Islamic Resistance in Iraq claims it targeted “a vital target” in the “occupied territories” with “appropriate weapons,” referring to a drone that hit the port area of Eilat overnight. The IDF says an “aerial target” crashed in Eilat causing light damage; no injuries.
The drone originated from Iraq, passed through Jordan, and was not intercepted. The building that the drone hit was near a Saar 6 Israeli warship docked at the port.
According to Al-Mayadeen, on March 31, “the Islamic Resistance in Iraq [also] announced that it had struck a military target of the Israeli occupation in the occupied Syrian Golan, with drones.
There are growing concerns that Iran is trying to pivot and prepare another front directly against Israel using drone equipped militias.
——— FORECAST ————————-
Israel continues to liquidate Hamas. Now looking at Rafah as the final act of the Gaza saga. Israel also continues to take out key Hezbollah leaders and sites in preparation for the eventual assault on southern Lebanon.
The “Islamic Resistance” is worth watching to see if they are shifting their actions in Iraq to target Israel in a larger way.
Turkey –
Erdogan concedes defeat for his party in mayoral elections. Erdogan lost the municipalities in cities where 80% of Turkey’s economy is based today. Even though his rival is not anti-Islamic, they support secularism, which is the complete opposite of Erdogan’s party. First time in 20 years secular parties have achieved this level of success.
OBSERVATION - Turkey for many years was considered ‘secular’ although it had a moslem majority citizenry. The rise of radical islam spilled over an allowed Erdogan to rise to power, generating his vision of a new Caliphate under his control. His goals using islamic codes also drove the country into economic chaos, destroying a lucrative trade relationship with Israel and becoming a pariah to much of the west. This has only gotten even worse in the post wuhan world.
The political fight when the next national election comes around could see Erdogan being ousted, but the contest will be brutal.
I believe this is the initial stage, to see if it flys and get ccepted, for the Islamic "NO GO Zone" like those that exist in France.
Once promoted, established and recognized, it is difficult to de-construct without personal violence.
Such discriminatory practices should not be tolerated, otherwise the concept will flourish in other areas where Islamic concentrations exist.
——— FORECAST ————————-
Israel continues to liquidate Hamas. Now looking at Rafah as the final act of the Gaza saga. Israel also continues to take out key Hezbollah leaders and sites in preparation for the eventual assault on southern Lebanon. The “Islamic Resistance” is worth watching to see if they are shifting their actions in Iraq to target Israel in a larger way.
Southern Lebanon? Interesting...
Yes, Hezbollah stronghold
Wow, global dynamics changed suddenly yesterday with the liquidation of 5 - 7 Iranian generals and much of their staff in an Israeli airstrike hitting a building in the Iranian embassy compound in Damascus.
We could be involved in a regional war very quickly. Read on.
Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of APR 2, 2024
Ramadan thru about April 8.
Iran has stated US involvement in yesterday’s Israeli air strike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus. This big hit took out a lot of key IRGC top leaders - the ones Iran would look to in order to manage any Hezbollah war with Israel. Technically, hitting the diplomatic compound constitutes an attack on sovereign territory as well. Iran in the past has launched attacks against US interests globally in response to Israeli strikes. In that Zahedi is the replacement for Suleimani, who was taken out by a US airstrike, this action likely crossed many red lines for Iran.
Retaliation may come in many forms. Physical attacks on US interests globally, concentrated in Europe and Syria/Iraq. Cyber attacks increased probability.
In the US, Iranian terror groups may be activated and conduct terror ops here. Pro-hamas protest supporters may try to utilize this to increase hatred for Jewish interests in the US.
NOTE - there have been no formal terrorism threat alerts from any of the alphabet agencies in Washington. However, events are breaking fast and one may be soon to come.
Economy-
The divergence between headline GDP and gross domestic income (GDI) is staggering. While GDP suggests a strong economy, GDI reveals a stagnant economy. Both measures used to follow a similar pattern, but this changed drastically in 2023. While GDP rose 2.5 percent in 2023, GDI only bounced 0.5 percent, effectively signaling economic stagnation.
According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), real GDI increased only 0.5 percent in 2023, compared with an increase of 2.1 percent in 2022. If we use the average of real GDP and real GDI, it increased only 1.5 percent in 2023, compared with an increase of 2.0 percent in 2022. This isn’t a recession, but certainly indicates a weak economy.
The unemployment figures show weakness as well. Real wage growth in the past four years has been negligible, at 0.7 percent per year, four times weaker than the previous four years. Furthermore, the labor force-participation rate remains below the pre-pandemic level at 62.5 percent, the same as the employment-population ratio at 60.1 percent. Poor real average hourly earnings combined with a decrease of 0.6 percent in the average workweek resulted in an uninspiring 0.5 percent increase in real average weekly earnings in the year to February 2024.
OBSERVATION - Bottom line is that the touted golden ‘bidenomics’ is not as golden as presented. Considering that many of today’s numbers are cooked, the realities of the economy are still being felt in the pocket book - and those realities are not good at all.
***
California’s $20 minimum wage for fast food workers became law Monday and quickly caused chaos, with pizza chains preparing to cut hundreds of employees, ice cream and pretzel shop franchisees struggling to learn if the law applies to them, and industry leaders eyeing price hikes in the state.
OBSERVATION - Laws by those who’ve never created a real job. The golden goose that was kalifornia is dying under the leftists.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The USS Dwight D Eisenhower and elements of the carrier strike group have been extended in CENTCOM according to three defense officials. They’ve been underway since Oct 14 and for months have served under a crushing operational tempo in the Red Sea.
NOTE - this is the only CSG in the region at this time.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –
Texas has reported a human case of H5N1 bird flu. Cow version transmitted to humans
OBSERVATION - This was the concern I mentioned in an earlier post. Medical community now assessing how dangerous of a threat this poses to humans.
POLITICAL FRONT –
July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
Folks, all kinds of law fare in progress by leftists and activist judges and Trump. At this stage it appears Trump has the upper hand. But at this time those lawsuits have to develop further.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Biden denies declaring proclamation calling Easter Sunday “Transgender Visibility Day.”
Who is running the White House?
Illegal Immigration –
A migrant caravan is making its way from southern Mexico to the Texas border. It is expected to arrive in the El Paso area in a few days.
There are about 2,000 people in the caravan. One video reported that there were 3,000 marching in the caravan.
OBSERVATION - Word travels fast. They have found a favorable magistrate judge there that will side with them in their invasion.
China –
Analysts anticipate significant Chinese military activity around Taiwan in April & May.
China launched at least 18x separate military drills in March, violated Taiwan’s air defense zone 139x, & dispatched 200+ warships around the island.
After a relatively slow start to the year, Chinese violations of Taiwan’s air defense ID zone have risen to levels not seen since the last round of large exercises in September & October 2023.
Cross-strait conditions for a Chinese attack in Taiwan present themselves in April, May, and August (plus or minus a couple weeks).
OBSERVATION - Assessment still continues to indicate that China’s preferred method of action against Taiwan at this time is a blockade of some form. No indicators popping of of any amphibious operation being put together to get troops on the ground.
North/South Korea –
North Korea has fired a suspected intermediate-range ballistic missile into the sea off its east coast.
South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff said that it detected the launch from the area of the North Korean capital Pyongyang on Tuesday at 6.53am (21:53 GMT on Monday).
The launch was the third of a ballistic missile in 2024, with North Korea saying it is testing a new intermediate-range hypersonic missile powered by a solid-fuel engine.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Mar 21, 2024.
Russia has taken advantage of Ukrainian ammo shortages, forcing them into primary defensive operations, and has seized the initiative following the fall of Avdiivka. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. The attacks are scattered along the front, concentrating on five axises of attack -
- Avdiivka,
- Maryinka,
- Robotyne,
- Kremenka and
- Bakhmut.
Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.
With the exception of Avdiivka, initial Russia attacks along the other axises have had poor results and exceptionally heavy losses. Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with. In some cases, over 70% of these newer tanks have been destroyed or captured by Ukraine.
In these other attacks, Russia continues to make poor use of fire and maneuver, preferring tank/armor ‘charges’ across open areas and down roads. This brings them into prepared kill zones where these forces are stopped and destroyed.
The most significant change in Russian tactics is on the Avdiivka front, where Russian is doing a much better job of launching what one could consider combined arms attacks.
When Ukraine lacks the artillery, Russian forces are able to penetrate in mass and overwhelm the fewer Ukrainian defenders.
Russian organization and capabilities make it unlikely that they will be able to quickly take advantage of penetrations into Ukrainian defenses. Poor training and lack of leadership at all levels, combined with poor logistic trains, will prevent any major breakouts beyond initial penetration of lines.
Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage. Russia is relying heavily on N Korean artillery rounds and Iranian drone/missiles.
Russian appears to be continuing to shepherd its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2022./23 This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage. Ammo shortages are starting to impact Ukraine ADA defenses.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. Ukraine continues to engage and destroy Russian naval vessels..
While the Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine, early in this winter/spring offensive, Russian has more aggressively conducted CAS in support of ground troops, reflecting ADA shortages. As a result, Russia has been able to locally seize air superiority at key locations along the front - the first time in two years of fighting. This has been at a cost, with a number Su-34/35 aircraft being lost in the last part of February alone as well as critical A50 AWAC systems.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.
Unknowns at this time are how soon ammo supples will start hitting Ukrainian units. Long range ATACMS and German Taurus cruise missiles may be coming on line soon for Ukraine as well as F-16s (now reportedly due in late spring/early summer). But the most critical item is artillery ammo.
*****
There have been widespread reports of mass deportations of Muslim migrants from Russia in the wake of the March 22 terror attack on the Crocus City Hall venue in a Moscow suburb which killed at least 140 people and left hundreds more wounded and injured.
This trend is said to be the result of a significant uptick in raids by authorities on apartments and dorm complexes known to house Central Asian migrants, amid concerns that Islamic radicals could carry out more attacks.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 30-60 range with some local highs into the 70s. No significant precipitation in the forecast.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukraine drones attacked enterprises in Yelabuga and Nizhnekamsk in Tatarstan for the first time. This is more than 1,200 kilometers from the Ukrainian border. Six people were injured. In Yelabuga there is a production of “shaheds”, and in Nizhnekamsk there is a large petrochemical complex. These attacks are the deepest Ukraine has accomplished against Russia.
Russian media report that the drone attack in Nizhnekamsk hit the main oil refinery.
At least 5 wounded in drone strikes at Alabuga special economic zone in Tatarstan, where Shahed drones plant is located.
According to Russian Telegram channels, Russia has not yet restored fuel production after previous attacks on refineries and is now supported by Belarusian supplies. This has already resulted in a sharp rise in prices for diesel and gas in Russia.
Ukrainian air defense shot down 9 of 10 Shahed drones.
Russia has launched large offensives in the Bakhmut and Avdiivka sectors with a considerable number of tanks and armored vehicles. They are sustaining very heavy losses due to Ukrainian ATGMs and drone strikes. However, the shear weight / size of the assaults have been forcing some retreats of Ukrainian forces who are also facing ammo shortages.
Avdiivka -
Russians are claiming to be less than 600m from Chasov Yar and advancing.
Outlook —
Fighting has intensified as noted above. Some believe Russia is pushing the fight because Europe is on the verge of getting munitions and ammo resupply to Ukraine in the very near future - breaking the shortages - and Russia wants to capitalize on the shortages now.
But these renewed assaults are coming at an extremely high cost in men and material to Russia even with Ukraine ammo shortages and some analysts indicate that these assaults may burn out sooner than later due to losses.
Ukraine’s deep game has gotten deeper and the successful strike overnight have thrown another hitch in Russian strategic planners efforts to sustain the war. Another damaged oil refinery and now the Shahed plant hit. This will force Russia to have to make even harder decisions on what to protect with their limited air defense assets.
Europe / NATO General –
France has been organizing a NATO brigade in Romania, another NATO member that shares a border with Ukraine. Currently the French led force in Romania has 1,500 French troops and that will increase to 4,000 in 2025. Equipment will eventually include 50 Leclerc tanks.
ISRAEL –
Dates to remember -
Ramadan March 11 - April 8
Key overnight developments -
- Israel airstrike on a consulate building in the Iranian embassy compound in Damascus has killed at least 6 senior generals/leaders in the IRGC and likely a lot of their staff
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
IDF continued search and destroy operations throughout Gaza while preparing for entry into Rafah.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
IAF and artillery continue to conduct strikes throughout S Lebanon in response to Hezbollah attacks.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
IRGC confirms Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Zahedi, Brigadier General Mohammad Hadi Haji Rahimi & 5 other officers, Hossein Amanollahi, Seyyed Mehdi Jalalati, Mohsen Sedaqat, Ali Agha Babaei & Seyyed Ali Salehi Rouzbahani were killed in the Israeli strike in Damascus
Mohammad Reza Zahedi was the Senior Quds Force Commander and his Deputy, the Commander of IRGC Operations in Syria and Lebanon Mohammad Rahimi
Zahedi is the replacement for Suleimani and by far the most important person in organizing Hezbollah and associated Shi’ite militias in the region. He has been very successful in reorganizing Hezbollah after it was harmed by previous assassinations and the Syrian civil war. This is a blow to Iran since it is hard to find yet another replacement with the skills and contacts Zehadi had.
That is doubly true since his deputy was also killed.
Hossein Amanollahi was the Chief of Staff of IRGC Quds Force in Syria & Lebanon
Iran’s leader says Israel will be punished for its attack on Iranian consulate, adding “We will make them regret committing this crime. ”Iran’s leader (on Israel’s attack on Iranian consulate in Damascus): The evil government will be punished by our brave men. We will make them regret committing this crime and similar ones
Israeli military spokesperson Hagari says building struck by airstrike in Damascus, Syria was IRGC military building and not a consulate or an embassy
———WEST BANK——————————-
Israeli security forces conducted numerous raids overnight at multiple locations across the West Bank.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Reports indicate an attack carried out by militias affiliated with the IRGC and Hezbollah using suicide drones on the Al-Tanf militry base on the border with Jordan, where US troops are stationed. In the past Iran has attacked US assets in Syria and Iraq in retaliation for Israeli actions.
***
Israeli army Spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari says the drone that hit the Eilat naval base overnight was “made in Iran” and the attack was “directed by Iran.” The drone was apparently launched from Iraq by an Iran-backed militia. “This is a very serious incident,” Hagari says
***
CENTCOM forces successfully destroyed an Iranian-backed Houthi terrorist unmanned surface vessel (USV).
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
The Kremlin: The attack on the Iranian embassy in Syria constitutes a violation of international law
——— FORECAST ————————-
Holy moly the last 24 have been dynamic. To strike an embassy compound takes some very big gonads for any country. In this case, Israel must have seen the benefits of eliminating these key IRGC leaders to be worth the intense risks. This is also the ultimate battlefield preparation strike for Israel - as long as Hezbollah continues attacks against Israel, Israel will continue actions like this in preparation for all out war against Hezbollah - likely later this year.
The IRGC is the key link between Iran and Hezbollah/hamas/houthi, providing military aid and leadership in the fight against Israel. The loss of these individuals will severely hamper the fight against Israel on both a tactical, strategic and logistical level.
Iran has few options at this stage -
1 Officially launch attacks from Iran towards Israeli interest and country. This is probably the least likely since it would invite Israeli strategic assets to target Iran proper, and I don’t think Iran is ready for that.
2 Have Hezbollah and other supported regional militias launch full out attacks on Israel. Again, I don’t think Hezbollah is quite ready for that option either. Israel has been doing the death by a thousand cuts operation and I think Hezbollah realizes that they have to rethink their plans - because Israel is not fighting like they have in the past. Israel has the initiative at the moment.
Additionally, the intelligence necessary to have identified this meeting in Damascus suggests that Israel has very good intel efforts in the region. Meaning that Hezbollah command and control will be hammered in the next major fight along with its munitions. Something Hezbollah as been working hard to keep under wraps.
3 Iranian back militias strike US forces in Syria and Iraq. They have been very quiet lately towards these US operations - having their command and logistics hit pretty hard. But such attacks have been a very common response since they avoid the direct conflict with Israel who will not pull their punches like the US has under biden.
One big concern along this line is a very strong effort to target the USS Eisenhower, currently stationed in the Red Sea with a massive drone/missile attack to hopefully overwhelm the carriers air defense screen and get a lucky hit. That ‘success’ may be one that they will take the risks in trying to obtain.
4 Launch unconventional and terrorist strikes globally against Israeli and US interests. An option that buffers Iran to a degree by a less than direct connection to Tehran. This is a high probability option that Iran has utilized in the past.
There are probably more options or combinations out there that I haven’t caught yet. Bottom line is that the Israeli - Hezbollah/Iran conflict has hit a critical junction and is poised to potentially explode into a much more violent regional fight.
Iran – HIGH Warning for supported attacks against Israeli and US interests across the globe. Apr 2, 2024
See Israel above on potential Iranian options.
Iran’s Foreign Minister says a Swiss embassy official was summoned to the Iranian foreign ministry at 00:45 am Tuesday to receive Iran’s “important message to the US” as the “supporter of Israel” following the airstrike on Iran’s consulate in Damascus that killed seven IRGC officers including two top generals.
Khamenei has stated that Washington bears responsibility for the Israeli attack on the consulate in Damascus, whether it knew it or not
The WH has denied any knowledge or involvement in the airstrike.
Misc of Note –
Hurricane season doesn’t start until June 1st—or about two months from today, April 1st. Weather forecasters have already warned that the Atlantic Hurricane season could be super active. This is due to a strengthening La Nina event in the Pacific, replacing the waining El Nino.
“The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is forecast to feature well above the historical average number of tropical storms, hurricanes, major hurricanes and direct US impacts,” AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Forecaster Alex DaSilva said.
DaSilva explained: “Sea-surface temperatures are well above historical average across much of the Atlantic basin, especially across the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean and the Main Development Region [for hurricanes].”
La Nina cycles in the Pacific results in less disruptive winds, known as wind shear, over most of the Atlantic basin, which means tropical systems will form more easily.
OBSERVATION - Folks in hurricane prone regions better get an early start on their preparations. Up dating your evacuation plans, routes (updated hard copy maps - don’t rely on GPS) and who you are staying with are critical. Double check and repack your evacuation/bug out bags with important documents and items, at least 3 days worth of food and water. Keep the gas tank topped off, etc. Also a good time to get redundancy on communications. NOAA weather radios, AM/FM battery powered radios and other coms (ham, gmrs, cb etc). Waiting until the last minute is a recipe for disaster.
BTW - don’t forget to pack up supplies for your pet - have cages/kennels ready.
Good list - still hate hurricane season. Worst part of living in Florida. My backyard ends at a small saltwater stream that connects twp bays.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
After just two days, the Palestinian “CHAZ” at Zuccotti Park in Manhattan was dismantled by the NYPD. Unlike Seattle’s BLM-Antifa CHAZ, nobody was murdered here.
Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of APR 2, 2024
Ramadan thru about April 8.
Iran has stated US involvement in yesterday’s Israeli air strike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus. This big hit took out a lot of key IRGC top leaders - the ones Iran would look to in order to manage any Hezbollah war with Israel. Technically, hitting the diplomatic compound constitutes an attack on sovereign territory as well. Iran in the past has launched attacks against US interests globally in response to Israeli strikes. In that Zahedi is the replacement for Suleimani, who was taken out by a US airstrike, this action likely crossed many red lines for Iran.
Retaliation may come in many forms. Physical attacks on US interests globally, concentrated in Europe and Syria/Iraq. Cyber attacks increased probability.
In the US, Iranian terror groups may be activated and conduct terror ops here. Pro-hamas protest supporters may try to utilize this to increase hatred for Jewish interests in the US.
NOTE - there have been no formal terrorism threat alerts from any of the alphabet agencies in Washington. However, events are breaking fast and one may be soon to come.
***
According to a report from the New York Post, a 27-year-old Somalian man, yet to be identified, was on the terrorist watchlist as “a confirmed member of al Shabaab” and was involved in the trafficking and transportation of explosives and firearms.
Despite this, the terrorist was released after initially being caught by authorities entering the country illegally in California in March of 2023. He was eventually rearrested in Minnesota in January.
GOP lawmakers are now demanding answers about the mishap. In a letter obtained by the Post, the lawmakers wrote, “Did the al-Shabbab terrorist travel to Minnesota with the assistance, either direct or indirect of an [Non-Governmental Organization]? If so, which NGO was responsible for transporting the individual to Minnesota?”
OBSERVATION - By all metrics, there are likely thousands and thousands more roaming around out there like this one.
Economy-
The largest egg producer in the United States said Tuesday that it temporarily ceased operations at one of its Texas facilities after detecting bird flu in chickens — the latest in a steady uptick of cases among U.S. farm animals in recent weeks.
Cal-Maine Foods said it culled about 1.6 million hens and 337,000 pullets (young hens) after some of its chickens at a Parmer County, Texas, facility tested positive for highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), caused by influenza A viruses that spread widely among wild and domestic birds.
The culled chickens at Cal-Maine Foods represent 3.6 percent of its flock as of March 2.
Human symptoms of bird flu include eye redness, fever, coughing, sore throat, muscle or body aches, headaches, fatigue, shortness of breath or difficulty breathing. Diarrhea, nausea, vomiting or seizures are less common, the CDC said.
https://www.americanpartisan.org/2024/04/largest-u-s-egg-producer-detects-bird-flu-at-texas-plant/
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The U.S. Army Publishing Directorate released the ALARACT 017/2024, titled, “Utilization of the Army Retiree Recall Program.”
The document cites Executive Order 13223 from the Bush administration in 2001.
A retiree recall is a “retired Soldier who is ordered to active duty (AD) from the Retired Reserve or the retired list under 10 USC 688/688a, 12301(a), or 12301(d). Per AR 601-10, Recalled retiree Soldiers must be aligned to a valid vacant AC requirement that matches the grade and skill of the retiree before he or she may be recalled to AD,” according to the document. “The retiree population will be utilized as a last resort to fill Active Component vacant requirements.”
OBSERVATION - Incorrect reports are saying this is an involuntary call up. The reality is the military is seeking voluntary returns (at this time). However, the sudden emphasis of the ALARACT is highlighting the significant personnel shortfalls of the active service.
Illegal Immigration –
Texas NG is massively fencing the section of the border in the El Paso TX region.
China –
Following the massive 7.4 quake of yesterday, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, $TSM, evacuated factory areas, endangering production at the world’s largest maker of advanced chips, per Bloomberg.
***
30 Chinese aircraft and 8 naval vessels were reportedly in the Taiwan ADZ following the quake. This number is within the range of incursions for the past several months and is unlikely a response to the quake.
Phillipines –
The U.S. and Philippine Air Forces are slated to conduct their first combat training exercise of the year this month, escalating tensions between Manila and Beijing in the South China Sea. Scheduled from April 8-19, Cope Thunder will feature fighters from both countries operating from a newly renovated runway at Basa Air Base.
Cope Thunder was held for the first time in more than 30 years in 2023—the annual exercise ran from Clark Air Base in the Philippines starting in the mid-1970s but was suspended following the 1991 volcanic eruption of Mount Pinatubo, which led to Clark’s closure. Last year, two iterations of Cope Thunder in May and June included U.S. F-16s and F-22s, as well as the Philippines Air Force’s FA-50PHs, A-29s, and AS-211s at Basa and Clark.
https://www.airandspaceforces.com/usaf-philippines-cope-thunder-fighter-exercise/
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Mar 21, 2024.
Russia has taken advantage of Ukrainian ammo shortages, forcing them into primary defensive operations, and has seized the initiative following the fall of Avdiivka. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. The attacks are scattered along the front, concentrating on five axises of attack -
- Avdiivka,
- Maryinka,
- Robotyne,
- Kremenka and
- Bakhmut.
Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.
With the exception of Avdiivka, initial Russia attacks along the other axises have had poor results and exceptionally heavy losses. Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with. In some cases, over 70% of these newer tanks have been destroyed or captured by Ukraine.
In these other attacks, Russia continues to make poor use of fire and maneuver, preferring tank/armor ‘charges’ across open areas and down roads. This brings them into prepared kill zones where these forces are stopped and destroyed.
The most significant change in Russian tactics is on the Avdiivka front, where Russian is doing a much better job of launching what one could consider combined arms attacks.
When Ukraine lacks the artillery, Russian forces are able to penetrate in mass and overwhelm the fewer Ukrainian defenders.
Russian organization and capabilities make it unlikely that they will be able to quickly take advantage of penetrations into Ukrainian defenses. Poor training and lack of leadership at all levels, combined with poor logistic trains, will prevent any major breakouts beyond initial penetration of lines.
Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage. Russia is relying heavily on N Korean artillery rounds and Iranian drone/missiles.
Russian appears to be continuing to shepherd its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2022./23 This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage. Ammo shortages are starting to impact Ukraine ADA defenses.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. Ukraine continues to engage and destroy Russian naval vessels..
While the Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine, early in this winter/spring offensive, Russian has more aggressively conducted CAS in support of ground troops, reflecting ADA shortages. As a result, Russia has been able to locally seize air superiority at key locations along the front - the first time in two years of fighting. This has been at a cost, with a number Su-34/35 aircraft being lost in the last part of February alone as well as critical A50 AWAC systems.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.
Unknowns at this time are how soon ammo supples will start hitting Ukrainian units. Long range ATACMS and German Taurus cruise missiles may be coming on line soon for Ukraine as well as F-16s (now reportedly due in late spring/early summer). But the most critical item is artillery ammo.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 30-70 range with some local highs into the 70s. No significant precipitation in the forecast.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Slow period, still a lot of fighting in the Avdivvka and Bakhmut sectors.
Ukraine drone strike has resulted in a massive fire in Kursk , probably a military base with munitions or oil/gas infrastructure.
Outlook —
Expect continued Russian pressure on the Avdiivka and Bakhmut sectors along with doses of deep strikes by both Russia and Ukraine.
ISRAEL –
Dates to remember -
Ramadan March 11 - April 8
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
***
An inadvertent air strike on World Central Kitchen workers that were entering a war zone has created a whirlwind of anger towards Israel .
***
Palestinian Authority is requesting the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) to vote on its membership status again. To achieve full membership, Palestine needs nine out of 15 votes with no permanent member vetoes.
U.N. observers say this motion is likely to pass, forcing a two state solution on the region.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
IDF continued search and destroy operations throughout Gaza while preparing for entry into Rafah.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
IAF and artillery continue to conduct strikes throughout S Lebanon in response to Hezbollah attacks.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Israel was on alert Wednesday for retaliatory strikes by Iran and its proxies for the attack widely attributed to Israel that demolished Iran’s consulate in the Syrian capital of Damascus and killed seven, including two Iranian generals.
Iran’s UN envoy Zahra Ershadi told the Security Council briefing on Israel’s strike against Iran’s consulate in Damascus, “Iran has exercised considerable restraint, but it’s imperative to acknowledge that there are limits to such forbearance. The occupying regime (of Israel) must bear full responsibility for its consequences. Iran reserves its legitimate and inherent right under international law and the United Nations Charter to take a decisive response to such reprehensible acts.”
Considerable amount of RUMINT on developing Iranian response(s). Many of them seem to center on two responses.
1 Drone/cruise missile/ballistic missile strikes on Israel proper originating from Iran proper (as well as militia elements in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Houthis
2 Attacks on Israeli embassies across the globe.
Many indicate attacks due within the next 48 hours. As noted above, Israel is at a high state of alert.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Israeli security forces conducted numerous raids overnight at multiple locations across the West Bank.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Russia’s UN envoy told the Security Council’s briefing on the Israeli airstrike on Iran’s Damascus consulate, “We consider any attacks on diplomatic and consular premises the inviolability of which is guaranteed by the relevant Vienna Conventions of 1961 and 1963 to be categorically unacceptable. This is not the first attack carried out by Israel in densely populated areas of Damascus, which generated high risks of mass casualties of civilians. Such aggressive actions by Israel are designed to further fuel the conflict. They’re absolutely unacceptable and must stop. We urge West Jerusalem to abandon the practice of provocative acts against Syria and other areas.”
Turkish Foreign Ministry: Türkiye condemns the Israeli attack on the Iranian embassy complex in Damascus and fears that it will lead to a regional conflict
——— FORECAST ————————-
All eyes are looking at what the Iranian response will be to yesterday’s strike that took out high level and critical generals and the sort in the Damascus strike. Of the two options being RUMINTed about the most dangerous is a direct strike on Israel proper. That would open up Iran proper to Israeli counter strikes. IMHO of the rumblings out there, directed attacks on Israeli embassies would be the most likely and would make it harder for Israel to justify striking Iran.
Maintaining concerns that Iran may instead target US assets in the region - the biggest of which is the Eisenhower, currently sitting in the Red Sea.
The next 48 could be world changing.
While this drama unfolds, Israel continues to clean out pockets of Hamas and affiliated terror cells in Gaza while preparing for the inevitable assault into Rafah. The hit on IRGC and entry into Rafah may be the triggers for Hezbollah to take a more active role in attacking Israel, rather than the minor skirmishes that have been the standard for the past months.
Iran – HIGH Warning for supported attacks against Israeli and US interests across the globe. Apr 2, 2024
See Israel above for analysis. Clock is ticking and the next 48 hours may be decisive for the region.
Misc of Note –
SMH, more states and municipalities are declaring states of emergency in advance of the April 8 solar eclipse. Still don’t understand what they are seeing beyond crowd/traffic issues.
***
Noted hurricane season in yesterday’s post. Equally critical and we are up to our hips in it is a potentially vigorous tornado season. Again, the transition to the La Nina is opening up more aggressive weather patterns to hammer the midwest and south.
Common sense preparations are in order. Have secure emergency shelter with at least several days supply of food, water and medical supplies. ‘Get valuables into the shelter now.
Make sure you have a good weather radio to get the tornado alerts in a timely manner. Along with that pay close attention to weather forecasts. Sources like the Weather channel, Accuraweather, etc are also good sources for coverage.
Finally, if a tornado hits, you will likely be your own FIRST RESPONDER, so be prepared by learning first aid skills, being equipped as well as establishing relationships with your neighbors to pull thru until outside help arrives.
GOP lawmakers are now demanding answers about the mishap.
The heck it was a mishap. It was intentional.
They knew who he was and they did it anyways.
For that matter, he should have been deported or sent to Gitmo in the first place.
April 8 also happens to be the last day of Ramadan. Just noticing......
April 8 also happens to be the last day of Ramadan. Just noticing......
Just realized that with the crowds in some places, it would be a great opportunity for a mass casualty event.
Ping to post 350
Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of APR 2, 2024
Ramadan thru about April 8.
Iran has stated US involvement in the Israeli air strike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus. This big hit took out a lot of key IRGC top leaders - the ones Iran would look to in order to manage any Hezbollah war with Israel. Technically, hitting the diplomatic compound constitutes an attack on sovereign territory as well. Iran in the past has launched attacks against US interests globally in response to Israeli strikes. In that Zahedi is the replacement for Suleimani, who was taken out by a US airstrike, this action likely crossed many red lines for Iran.
Retaliation may come in many forms. Physical attacks on US interests globally, concentrated in Europe and Syria/Iraq. Cyber attacks increased probability.
In the US, Iranian terror groups may be activated and conduct terror ops here. Pro-hamas protest supporters may try to utilize this to increase hatred for Jewish interests in the US.
NOTE - there have been no formal terrorism threat alerts from any of the alphabet agencies in Washington. However, events are breaking fast and one may be soon to come.
Economy-
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday it will take a while for policymakers to evaluate the current state of inflation, keeping the timing of potential interest rate cuts uncertain.
Speaking specifically about stronger-than-expected price pressures to start the year, the central bank leader said he and his fellow officials are in no rush to ease monetary policy.
“On inflation, it is too soon to say whether the recent readings represent more than just a bump,” Powell said in remarks ahead of a question-and-answer session at Stanford University.
“We do not expect that it will be appropriate to lower our policy rate until we have greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably down toward 2 percent,” he added. “Given the strength of the economy and progress on inflation so far, we have time to let the incoming data guide our decisions on policy.”
The remarks come two weeks after the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee again voted to hold benchmark short-term borrowing rates steady. In addition, the committee’s post-meeting statement on March 20 included the “greater confidence” qualifier needed before cutting.
Powell still is inclined to reduce rates later this year.
OBSERVATION - Some aspects of the economy and in particular, the markets, are dying for a rate decrease as it would cause stocks to rise. Powell’s cautionary statements have thrown cold water on an early rate reduction. The decline in inflation (with a lot of cooked numbers) is at a phase where elements like petroleum prices etc, are on the rise and will soon execute pressure to raise other prices higher. No breaks seen in the housing market either - thru high home prices and mortgage rates.
***
The United States is almost certainly on an unsustainable path with regard to the astronomic rise in its national debt, according to a million simulations run by Bloomberg.
Bloomberg reported Tuesday that it conducted a million simulations on the U.S. debt outlook and found 88% of them show borrowing is on an “unsustainable path.”
The findings come after a forecast by the Congressional Budget Office that indicates the national debt will grow to an astonishing $54 trillion in the next decade, the result of an aging population and rising federal health care costs. Higher interest rates are also compounding the pain of higher debt.
Payments are expected to triple from nearly $475 billion in fiscal year 2022 to a stunning $1.4 trillion in 2032. By 2053, the interest payments are projected to surge to $5.4 trillion. To put that into perspective, that will be more than the U.S. spends on Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid and all other mandatory and discretionary spending programs.
OBSERVATION - You can’t keep adding one TRILLION to the deficit every 100 days indefinitely. This of course, plays right into the hands of the ‘great reset’ crowd.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
Biden drained our Strategic Petroleum Reserve down to 17 days of supply. In 2022, Biden claimed he had “a plan to refill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve” after draining it to its lowest level in four decades.
Today he cancelled the refill order stating that the price of oil is too high.
OBSERVATION - Long term average has been about 35 days worth of storage. Under Trump, a considerable amount of oil at bargain basement prices were added to the reserve. The stockpile was squandered by biden in a deliberate effort to weaken our reserves.
With potential war with Iran, middle east petroleum sources to the US may be endangered and would cause severe disruptions in supply and a steep increase in prices.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –
The “bird flu” has now reportedly been detected in cattle from Ohio.
POLITICAL FRONT –
July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
Recent WSJ polls reflect very bad news for biden, showing him getting hammered in all but one swing state. Demographic shifts towards Trump are also yuge.
Remember, polling now a days is more inclined to shape opinions rather than accurately reflect opinions.
China –
Remarkably low loss of life from the 7.4 quake that hit Taiwan. They’ve taken seismic building standards seriously and the results show it. Last count was 8 dead! Numbers could go up, but when compared to what has happened in the US, it is incredible.
North/South Korea –
The NK rocket test earlier this week was a newer version of a intermediate range, solid fuel rocket. Prominent was the angular “hypersonic” warhead that was likely also tested.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Mar 21, 2024.
Russia has taken advantage of Ukrainian ammo shortages, forcing them into primary defensive operations, and has seized the initiative following the fall of Avdiivka. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. The attacks are scattered along the front, concentrating on five axises of attack -
- Avdiivka,
- Maryinka,
- Robotyne,
- Kremenka and
- Bakhmut.
Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.
With the exception of Avdiivka, initial Russia attacks along the other axises have had poor results and exceptionally heavy losses. Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with. In some cases, over 70% of these newer tanks have been destroyed or captured by Ukraine.
In these other attacks, Russia continues to make poor use of fire and maneuver, preferring tank/armor ‘charges’ across open areas and down roads. This brings them into prepared kill zones where these forces are stopped and destroyed.
The most significant change in Russian tactics is on the Avdiivka front, where Russian is doing a much better job of launching what one could consider combined arms attacks.
When Ukraine lacks the artillery, Russian forces are able to penetrate in mass and overwhelm the fewer Ukrainian defenders.
Russian organization and capabilities make it unlikely that they will be able to quickly take advantage of penetrations into Ukrainian defenses. Poor training and lack of leadership at all levels, combined with poor logistic trains, will prevent any major breakouts beyond initial penetration of lines.
Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage. Russia is relying heavily on N Korean artillery rounds and Iranian drone/missiles.
Russian appears to be continuing to shepherd its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2022./23 This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage. Ammo shortages are starting to impact Ukraine ADA defenses.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. Ukraine continues to engage and destroy Russian naval vessels..
While the Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine, early in this winter/spring offensive, Russian has more aggressively conducted CAS in support of ground troops, reflecting ADA shortages. As a result, Russia has been able to locally seize air superiority at key locations along the front - the first time in two years of fighting. This has been at a cost, with a number Su-34/35 aircraft being lost in the last part of February alone as well as critical A50 AWAC systems.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.
Unknowns at this time are how soon ammo supples will start hitting Ukrainian units. Long range ATACMS and German Taurus cruise missiles may be coming on line soon for Ukraine as well as F-16s (now reportedly due in late spring/early summer). But the most critical item is artillery ammo.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 30-70 range with some local highs into the 70s. No significant precipitation in the forecast.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down 11 of 20 Shahed drones.
Ukraine hit more Russian petroleum targets with a fuel depot set on fire in Rostov.
Russian forces have redoubled their attacks all along the eastern front. Biggest battles continue to be centered in the Avdiivka sector. Russia throwing every piece of armor they have into an attempt to cause the collapse of Ukraine defenses. For its part, Ukraine is extracting very heavy losses to those tanks and APCs in addition to infantry and for the most part continue to be successful in breaking these attacks.
Outlook —
Russia throwing more and more against Ukraine front lines, in an effort get as much territory as possible before ammunition reaches the Ukraine defenders and before the spring rainy season converts the terrain into a mud bog again. Weather conditions for the next couple weeks has pretty fair conditions conducive to Russian attacks.
Ukraine is relying on a relative abundance of Javelin ATGMs and attack drones to stop these armor charges. The artillery support is apparently being reserved to clean up the areas after an assault has been blunted and Russians are on foot. While Russia has been rolling an impressive number of tanks and APCs into these assaults, Ukraine has been rolling up some impressive numbers of tank/armor kills.
There are many voices out there claiming Ukraine forces/defenses are ready to break. I will agree that they are being hard pressed, but the fury of their defense indicates that they aren’t in full retreat mode any time soon.
ISRAEL –
Dates to remember -
Ramadan March 11 - April 8
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
***
The Israeli army says it has halted home leave for all combat troops, following a fresh assessment.”The Israeli army is at war and the issue of the deployment of forces is constantly reviewed as needed” the Israeli army adds
***
Leftists protested in Tel Aviv overnight calling for the end of Netanyahu’s leadership and an end to the Gaza conflict.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
IDF continued search and destroy operations throughout Gaza while preparing for entry into Rafah.
Two rockets were fired from the Gaza Strip at the southern city of Sderot a short while ago, the municipality says. One of the rockets was shot down by the Iron Dome, while the second hit an open area outside the city, a spokesperson for Sderot says.
The Israeli army says that it has bolstered and called up reservists for its air defense array, following a fresh assessment
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
IAF and artillery continue to conduct strikes throughout S Lebanon in response to Hezbollah attacks.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Israel remains on heightened alert for retaliatory strikes by Iran and its proxies.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Israeli security forces conducted numerous raids overnight at multiple locations across the West Bank.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
USS Gravely & other CENTCOM forces shot down an anti-ship ballistic missile & 2 drones launched by Iran-back Houthis in Yemen April 3. US also destroyed a Houthi mobile surface-to-air missile system.
SMH - The US said it would consider revoking its recent designation of Yemen’s Houthis as terrorists if the Iran-backed militants cease their shipping attacks in and around the Red Sea. (Bloomberg)
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Arab League Council - The invasion of Rafah will be considered an attack on Arab national security
——— FORECAST ————————-
Things are continuing to be tense in Israel as they wait out the anticipated Iranian retaliatory attack(s). More and more unconfirmed reports that Iran is planing to strike Israel proper are leading the RUMIT cycle. Behind these ‘reports’ lies the thought that Iran can do so without consequences and that Israel would be the one to eventually back down.
I think Iran may be underestimating Israel.
As I’ve noted many times, the Islamic world respects power/force over rhetoric. In the current crisis, Iran has lost face with the rest of the arabs in the region, showing weakness in letting their top military leadership get nailed so easily. So they have to mount a credible retaliatory strike.
The most dangerous course of action is for Iran to launch from Iran proper and attack Israel. In doing so will open itself up for Israeli retaliatory strikes on a number of targets.
One last item, with the conflict growing away from Iranian proxies to the country itself, the hidden danger is that Iran will go for it all and try to product a nuclear device. They have enough highly enriched uranium to use to go for the 90% purity needed for a bomb. The only other question is whether or not they can then quickly design a warhead and reentry device their missiles can carry to Israel.
So many dangerous paths are potentially out there in the coming days.
As far as the Gaza portion of the conflict goes, a relatively ‘routine’ overnight with more targeting of remaining Hamas cells throughout Gaza and continued readiness to enter Rafah.
Iran – HIGH Warning for supported attacks against Israeli and US interests across the globe. Apr 2, 2024
See Israel above for analysis. Clock is ticking and the next 24-48 hours may be decisive for the region.
***
An anti-regime militia called Jaish al-Adl (Army of Justice) has attacked two Iranian military checkpoints, including a police station in the city center of Chabahar, in the far southeast of Iran. According to reports they have also attacked the IRGC’s HQ in Rask. At least three Iranian security forces reported killed in the Jaish al-Adl attack.
Iranian State Media later reported that at least 5 Members of the Jaysh al-Adl militant group and 5 Iranian security forces personnel have been killed so far during heavy fighting in the Southeast portion of the country.
A massive explosion occurred at an arms depot of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) near the Town of Rask in Southeastern Iran, which was claimed to have been captured earlier by Jaysh al-Adi. Unconfirmed reports that miltants managed to capture the IRGC Naval Headquarters in the coastal city of Chah Bahar.
Most recent update has Iran claiming to have restored control over the region - those claims are disputed.
OBSERVATION - What timing, as the mullahs contemplate how they want to hit Israel there is an active uprising in country.
Iraq -
U.S. and Coalition Forces in the Kurdistan region of northern Iraq have reportedly been placed on hHigh alert for a possible ballistic or cruise missile attack by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) of Iran against facilities in and around the city of Erbil which Iran claims are operated by members of Israeli Intelligence; the attack be in response to the Israeli airstrike this week against the Iranian Embassy Compound in Damascus.
OBSERVATION - Iran has hit this region in the past in retaliation for Israel strikes that have taken out key leaders in the past. Claiming they hit a mossad facility is an easy out to claim a victorious counter strike against Israel.
Any numbers on how many Iranian illegals of military age walked across the border since Biden took office?
I’m sure there are some out there more recent but some guesstimates are in the thousands
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
LibsofTiktok are reporting that Trans Redditors are now openly discussing committing politically motivated mass shootings and public suicides. Over the past year, there have been number of mass murder events by trans or similar gender confused individuals.
***
More pro-hamas protests scheduled this weekend across the country. The intensity of these protests may be enhanced if Iran strikes Israel this weekend and israel counter strikes.
Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of APR 2, 2024
Ramadan thru about April 8.
Iran has stated US involvement in the Israeli air strike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus. This big hit took out a lot of key IRGC top leaders - the ones Iran would look to in order to manage any Hezbollah war with Israel. Technically, hitting the diplomatic compound constitutes an attack on sovereign territory as well. Iran in the past has launched attacks against US interests globally in response to Israeli strikes. In that Zahedi is the replacement for Suleimani, who was taken out by a US airstrike, this action likely crossed many red lines for Iran.
Retaliation may come in many forms. Physical attacks on US interests globally, concentrated in Europe and Syria/Iraq. Cyber attacks increased probability.
In the US, Iranian terror groups may be activated and conduct terror ops here. Pro-hamas protest supporters may try to utilize this to increase hatred for Jewish interests in the US.
NOTE - there have been no formal terrorism threat alerts from any of the alphabet agencies in Washington. However, events are breaking fast and one may be soon to come.
***
Economy-
Brent oil futures hit $90 a barrel overnight. This represents a $2/barrel spike, most likely reflecting concerns over the potential expansion of the Gaza war. Gold and silver prices have also climbed in recent days as well.
At present, gasoline prices are at 6 month high levels.
***
Just over a week after the catastrophic collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge, the US Army Corps of Engineers announced it plans to fully reopen the channel leading to the Baltimore port by the end of May – a significant update since the disaster halted vessel traffic and delivered a serious blow to a port critical to local and national economies.
https://www.aol.com/news/us-army-corps-engineers-plans-234253785.html
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –
Bird flu outbreaks have been reported at 2 more dairy farms, in Kansas and New Mexico, raising the total to 15.
POLITICAL FRONT –
July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
Lara Trump, the recently elected co-chair of the Republican National Committee, told Newsmax on Thursday that her first few weeks on the job have produced a massive windfall for Donald Trump, adding that the RNC has significantly closed the fundraising gap with President Joe Biden’s campaign.
Further, in an interview with “Eric Bolling The Balance,” Lara Trump said the changes instituted with RNC Chair Michael Whatley have put her father-in-law in a stronger position.
“That’s been really the only talking point that I think the DNC [Democratic National Committee] has had is that, ‘Oh, well, they have more money than us.’ Not for long, folks,” Lara Trump told host Bolling. “This was a huge fundraising month for the RNC. ... We’re really proud of the work we’ve done, and we’re just getting started.”
While Trump didn’t give a tally, it was reported this week that the RNC raised $65.6 million in March.
OBSERVATION - Striving to repair the damage caused by RINO Ronna McDaniel.
***
Democrat voices are continuing to call for Justice Sonia Sotomayor to retire so that they can try to get a younger liberal judge seated before the Nov elections. These calls highlight the democrat fears that Trump will win and Sotomayor may be out of the court due to growing medical issues (or even die) during his term.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Biden is under fire for waiving more sanction requirements for Iran even as Iranian-backed militant terrorist groups continue to launch attacks on Israel as well as U.S. and other ships in the Red Sea, hiking costs for Americans.
And Iranian proxy Hamas holding onto US citizens as hostages.
China –
White House official John Kirby says that the Biden administration doesn’t support Taiwan’s independence.
The comment came after a reporter asked about Biden’s call with President Xi.
“I won’t characterize President Xi’s comments, but I can tell you that that President Biden was very, very clear that that nothing’s changed about our one China policy.”
“We don’t support independence for Taiwan, but we also don’t wanna see the status quo changed in a unilateral way, and certainly not by force.”
OBSERVATION - Huge change in US policy and an open invitation for China to take action.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Mar 21, 2024.
Russia has taken advantage of Ukrainian ammo shortages, forcing them into primary defensive operations, and has seized the initiative following the fall of Avdiivka. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. The attacks are scattered along the front, concentrating on five axises of attack -
- Avdiivka,
- Maryinka,
- Robotyne,
- Kremenka and
- Bakhmut.
Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.
With the exception of Avdiivka, initial Russia attacks along the other axises have had poor results and exceptionally heavy losses. Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with. In some cases, over 70% of these newer tanks have been destroyed or captured by Ukraine.
In these other attacks, Russia continues to make poor use of fire and maneuver, preferring tank/armor ‘charges’ across open areas and down roads. This brings them into prepared kill zones where these forces are stopped and destroyed.
The most significant change in Russian tactics is on the Avdiivka front, where Russian is doing a much better job of launching what one could consider combined arms attacks.
When Ukraine lacks the artillery, Russian forces are able to penetrate in mass and overwhelm the fewer Ukrainian defenders.
Russian organization and capabilities make it unlikely that they will be able to quickly take advantage of penetrations into Ukrainian defenses. Poor training and lack of leadership at all levels, combined with poor logistic trains, will prevent any major breakouts beyond initial penetration of lines.
Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage. Russia is relying heavily on N Korean artillery rounds and Iranian drone/missiles.
Russian appears to be continuing to shepherd its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2022./23 This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage. Ammo shortages are starting to impact Ukraine ADA defenses.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. Ukraine continues to engage and destroy Russian naval vessels..
While the Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine, early in this winter/spring offensive, Russian has more aggressively conducted CAS in support of ground troops, reflecting ADA shortages. As a result, Russia has been able to locally seize air superiority at key locations along the front - the first time in two years of fighting. This has been at a cost, with a number Su-34/35 aircraft being lost in the last part of February alone as well as critical A50 AWAC systems.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.
Unknowns at this time are how soon ammo supples will start hitting Ukrainian units. Long range ATACMS and German Taurus cruise missiles may be coming on line soon for Ukraine as well as F-16s (now reportedly due in late spring/early summer). But the most critical item is artillery ammo.
*****
Logistics –
Lukoil’s NORSI refinery, the 4th largest in Russia, has cut gasoline production by 40% due to difficulties repairing a broken unit. The only company capable of fixing it, UOP, withdrew from Russia after the invasion.
Russian companies are facing difficulties in repairing oil refineries due to Western sanctions, and Ukrainian drone attacks could worsen the problem, Reuters reported on April 4, citing unnamed sources familiar with the matter.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 30-70 range with some local highs into the 70s. No significant precipitation in the forecast.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Busy night for the drone wars. Ukrainian air defense shot down 13 of 13 Shahed drones.
Russia was on the receiving end of probably the largest Ukraine drone attack to date.
There were many loud explosions at Morozovsk Air Base in Russia, located 300km from the front in Ukraine. Over 60 explosions have been reported. The air base is home to 36x Su-34 and 4x Su-24 Russian Fighter Jets. Initial reports of 6 aircraft destroyed, 8 damaged (can consider destroyed as well given lack of spare parts) and 20 Russians killed.
Another Ukraine drone attack hit Engels Air Force Base, home to strategic bombers like the Tu-95 and Tu-22. Over 800km from the likely launch point in Kharkiv. Unconfirmed reports of damage to some of the bombers.
The Russian city of Kursk took a beating tonight from Ukraine drones as well.
The Battle of Chasiv Yar has started. Russian troops have reached the first buildings on the eastern edge of the town, they were quickly routed.
Chasiv Yar is on elevated terrain, occupying a commanding view of wide, open flat land approach the city. Russian forces have attempted several armored pushes on the town over the past week and have been seriously destroyed and repelled. Chasiv Yar is a critical node and has to be taken if the Russian Army is to continue to Slovyansk and Kramstorsk.
Ukraine delaying actions have given them a considerable amount of time to prepare enhanced defenses of the town. Some are estimating that it could cost as many as 70,000 Russian casualties for them to take the town.
Outlook —
Chasiv Yar is looking like the next bloodbath for Russian infantry. In a tactically commanding high ground with excellent fields of fire over flat open terrain that approaches the city, Russians better have plenty of body bags.
One thing I’ve not seen on these recent Russian armor attacks - supporting Russian artillery. Under US combined arms doctrine, artillery fire is suppose to suppress opposing forces capability to target and attack the armor forces. It has been absent without any reasons. Russian doctrine calls for a boatload of artillery in the attack. This tactic was last seen in the closing stages of the battle for Bakhmut, where Russian artillery would saturate an objective, giving the ground forces a chance to reach it and push out what ever remained of the defenders.
Ukraine continues to take the upper hand in its prosecution of the drone wars. The large attack on Morozovsk Air Base with at least 60 drones did a lot of damage to Russia’s shrinking airforce. BDA soon coming out from OSINT - IMINT sources.
Moldova/Transnistria -
The Romanian Ministry of Defense recently tabled a draft law that would allow the armed forces to intervene abroad in defense of their compatriots. This move is likely aimed against Moldova, where over 1.3 million people have Romanian citizenship due to their shared ethno-linguistic heritage, and not Ukraine despite the Romanian minority there being persecuted for not joining Kiev’s new “church”. It comes amidst the possibility of Russia achieving a military breakthrough across the front lines this year.
In that event, France and/or Poland might lead a conventional NATO intervention in order to prevent Russia from crossing the Dnieper, during which time Romania could annex Moldova on the pretext of defending its compatriots from Transnistrian-emanating Russian threats. Those moves would solidify Western military influence in the erstwhile USSR’s southwestern periphery and could be spun as a major victory ahead of Ukraine’s asymmetrical partition for ending the “war” as part of a compromise.
https://korybko.substack.com/p/romanias-draft-law-on-dispatching
OBSERVATION - Consensus seems to be an effort by Romania to incorporate Moldova as part of its territory then isolate Russian rebels in Transnistria out of existence and climate that threat to Romania and the west.
Europe / NATO General –
Finland announces it’s closing its border with Russia indefinitely. The decision was taken is response to Russia pushing flows of illegal migrants toward Finland in a form of hybrid warfare.
Russia has also used weaponized migration against Estonia.
***
A decision was just taken to launch a NATO mission for Ukraine. The news was broken by Polish Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski, saying it doesn’t mean NATO is entering the war, but that NATO’s coordinating, training & planning capabilities will now be used to help Ukraine.
BLINKEN: “Ukraine will become a member of NATO.”
OBSERVATIONS - The implementation and timing of such an entry into NATO is very fuzzy from the declaration. However, the more aggressive posture of NATO in support of Ukraine infers that it may soon become fully involved directly in the conflict. Poland and Turkey have both withdrawn from the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe, which would have restricted deployment of forces in Ukraine.
This coincides with increased talk and calls for European forces to enter Ukraine to support the fight against Russia.
A couple serious problems that NATO will be facing -
1) Ukraine, if/when it enters NATO, will have “unresolved” territorial issues. Crimea and the Donbass are in Russian hands. If Ukraine enters NATO with that being the case, border conflicts over that territory could spark war, which would then drag in NATO through Article V. Such a war would be extremely bloody and potentially escalate to nuclear armageddon
2) This is Putin’s red line. In the 90s, when the USSR fell, America promised the Russians that NATO wouldn’t expand to the East
ISRAEL –
Dates to remember -
Ramadan March 11 - April 8
Key overnight developments -
- Biden’s demands that Netanyahu implement an immediate ceasefire with no reference to the hostages being released
- Israel making large scale plans for defense and counter attack options should Iran and its proxy forces attack.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
***
In their 45-minute conversation, Biden demanded “an immediate ceasefire” to “protect innocent civilians.”
The official readout was less dramatic. In it,we are told that Biden “emphasized that the strikes on humanitarian workers and the overall humanitarian situation are unacceptable. Biden also told Netanyahu that Israel must “announce and implement” a series of “concrete and measurable steps” to protect aid workers and address humanitarian suffering.
But it says: “He made clear that U.S. policy with respect to Gaza will be determined by our assessment of Israel’s immediate action on these steps.” John Kirby said, “If there are no changes in their policy, there will have to be changes in ours.”
Hamas literally just rejected a six-week ceasefire with a 40-terrorist-to-one-hostage ratio and has has rejected every ceasefire offer over the past six months and is still holding hostages, including Americans, and refusing to release them.
***
Secretary of State Blinken stated in his press conference yesterday declared that Israel risks becoming indistinguishable from Hamas.
***
28 Israeli diplomatic missions across the world are closed due to fears of Iran in revenge after the attack in Damascus. Jerusalem post - Israel has requested that ambassadors do not appear at public events.
Israeli medical centers were placed on emergency standby and were told to be prepared for difficult scenarios. Most have been told to make sure they were fully staffed for this weekend.
***
Israeli military fired 2 officers and punished 3 others for drone strike in Gaza Monday night that killed 7 aid workers from World Central Kitchen
***
The Ministry of Health of Israel has summoned all hospital managers to a meeting to prepare for the threats from Iran: the Director General of the Ministry of Health, Moshe Bar Siman Tov, asked to make sure that there are enough medical teams on the weekend and in the coming days
***
Senior Israeli Officials have reportedly received Intelligence which indicates that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) of Iran may launch an attack on Friday against Israel utilizing Intermediate-Range Ballistic Missiles, Land-Attack Cruise Missiles, and One-Way “Suicide” Drones. The Israel Defense Force is preparing for the possibility over the next 72 Hours of a “Large-Scale Simultaneous Attack” from several different fronts, likely including but not limited to Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Iran, and Yemen.
Intense GPS jamming was activated in central Israel in preparation of an Iranian response. Reportedly locations in Tel Aviv are reading Beirut on GPS systems.
***
Netanyahu to members of Congress: There is an attempt to impose a Palestinian state on us that will turn into a haven for terrorism and attacks on us
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
IDF continued search and destroy operations throughout Gaza while preparing for entry into Rafah as well as preparing for Iranian attacks.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
IAF and artillery continue to conduct strikes throughout S Lebanon in response to Hezbollah attacks.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Considerable rumors of movement of missiles in both Israel and Iran.
The IDF is scrambling GPS in cities including Tel Aviv. Leave has been canceled for combat soldiers and air defense reservists have been called up.
Israel has notified the United States that if Iran makes the decision to target the territory of Israel, then they will be forced to respond.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Israeli security forces conducted numerous raids overnight at multiple locations across the West Bank.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
The Jordanian King and the Saudi Crown Prince: We support the establishment of an independent, sovereign Palestinian state along the lines of June 4, 1967.
——— FORECAST ————————-
biden essentially tossed the American hostages and the nation of Israel under the bus yesterday with his demands of an immediate and unilateral ceasefire based on the incidental deaths of 7 aid workers. This as Israel is close to entering Rafah and is expecting a substantial attack from Iran that could blow the whole region up into war. What biden et al is advocating is the surrender of Israel.
This points to the ever increasing isolation of Israel from the rest of the world, as anti-semitic forces are beginning to win the policy fights. As many note, if Israel capitulates to biden’s demands, its existence will be at even a greater risk than now.
Continued global calls for a two state solution rattle around as well, many calling for 1967 borders - a tactical situation that Israel cannot allow or accept.
Just what Iran’s response to the Damascus will be is hanging over the region. Israel in no uncertain terms has stated that they will hit the territory of Iran if Iran strikes the territory of Israel. The biggest wildcard is what will Hezbollah do? Will they launch the mega rocket barrage that has been threatened for years? It is almost a given that Iranian proxy elements in Syria, Iraq and Yemen will fire what ever assets they have at Israel in conjunction with drones, ballastic and cruise missile from Iran.
New suspected time line is less than 72 hours and with this being the day before Sabbath, a launch over that day carries a high probability .
Iran – HIGH Warning for supported attacks against Israeli and US interests across the globe. Apr 2, 2024
See Israel above for analysis. Clock is ticking and the next 24-48 hours may be decisive for the region.
***
Multiple reports of unidentified flying objects crossing into Iraqi airspace from Iran. Southeast towards Kurdistan. Videos indicate either reentry of space debris or exhaust from cruise missiles as the direction was toward Kurdistan region in Iraq. However, as of my writing there there have been no reports of any missile impacts in the region.
***
An anti-regime militia called Jaish al-Adl (Army of Justice) attacks in South East Iran appear to be over as govt and IRGC forces appear to have regained control. The Jaish al-Adl reportedly did considerable damage to an IRGC ammo dump in the region.
Iran has accused “foreign intelligence services” of launching simultaneous attacks on 5 military and security headquarters in the Iranian cities of Chabahar and Rask.
Turkey –
Turkish President Erdogan on Friday signed an act suspending Ankara’s obligations under the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE Treaty). The act will come into force on April 8
The original Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe was negotiated and concluded during the last years of the Cold War and established comprehensive limits on key categories of conventional military equipment in Europe and mandated the destruction of excess weaponry. The treaty proposed equal limits for the two “groups of states-parties”, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and the Warsaw Pact.
In the midst of ongoing global peril, I am unlikely to post tomorrow. New responsibilities on Sunday mornings will cut into my preparation time too much. I will post breaking info if Iran launches its promised attack against Israel.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Multiple pro-hamas protests on tap in many cities around the country. Uncertain if the events between Israel and Iran are going to catalyze violence.
Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of APR 2, 2024
Ramadan thru about April 8.
Iran has stated US involvement in the Israeli air strike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus. This big hit took out a lot of key IRGC top leaders - the ones Iran would look to in order to manage any Hezbollah war with Israel. Technically, hitting the diplomatic compound constitutes an attack on sovereign territory as well. Iran in the past has launched attacks against US interests globally in response to Israeli strikes. In that Zahedi is the replacement for Suleimani, who was taken out by a US airstrike, this action likely crossed many red lines for Iran.
Retaliation may come in many forms. Physical attacks on US interests globally, concentrated in Europe and Syria/Iraq. Cyber attacks increased probability.
In the US, Iranian terror groups may be activated and conduct terror ops here. Pro-hamas protest supporters may try to utilize this to increase hatred for Jewish interests in the US.
NOTE - there have been no formal terrorism threat alerts from any of the alphabet agencies in Washington. However, events are breaking fast and one may be soon to come.
Economy-
The regime is touting employment numbers of 303,000 new jobs. The breakout of some those numbers (which in the past will likely be downgraded) reportedly are -
- Government jobs added ... 71,000
- Manufacturing jobs added ... 0
- Part time jobs ... 691,000
- Full time jobs ... -6,000
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
USS GEORGE WASHINGTON (CVN 73) deployment announced. The aircraft carrier will deploy to U.S. Southern Command over the next few months—circumnavigating South America with port visits in Brazil, Chile, & Peru—en route to the Indo-Pacific.
The United States, Philippines, Japan, Australia to hold naval drill in South China Sea on Sunday
POLITICAL FRONT –
July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
Many new polls have things looking really bad for biden. Just monitor and don’t bet the bank just yet, the pollsters are harkening to those trying to shape the electoral battlefield.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Biden checks out for another ‘vacation’.
Illegal Immigration –
Tuberculosis cases have been detected at migrant facilities in Chicago following a recent measles outbreak in the city’s shelters, sparking health officials to urgently start contact tracing.
The Chicago Department of Public Health did not disclose the exact number of cases or which shelter it originated from but confirmed that ‘a small number of cases’ were reported ‘in a few different shelters’ around the city.
This comes as Chicago has documented 55 measles cases in the city, a majority of the cases being reported in the Pilsen migrant shelter.
According to CDPH, between 10 percent and 20 percent of people living in Central and South America have latent tuberculosis (TB), an infection that is asymptomatic and not spread to other people. However, you will still test positive for TB even if you are not exhibiting symptoms.
‘Not everyone who acquires TB will develop an active infection. A percentage or folks will actually develop what we call a latent infection. But that latent TB can then reactivate to become active TB at some point in the future,’ said Hazra.
OBSERVATION - Who knows what other diseases have been brought in as well.
China –
The United States, Philippines, Japan, Australia to hold naval drill in South China Sea on Sunday
OBSERVATION - China will not be happy.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Mar 21, 2024.
Russia has taken advantage of Ukrainian ammo shortages, forcing them into primary defensive operations, and has seized the initiative following the fall of Avdiivka. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. The attacks are scattered along the front, concentrating on five axises of attack -
- Avdiivka,
- Maryinka,
- Robotyne,
- Kremenka and
- Bakhmut.
Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.
With the exception of Avdiivka, initial Russia attacks along the other axises have had poor results and exceptionally heavy losses. Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with. In some cases, over 70% of these newer tanks have been destroyed or captured by Ukraine.
In these other attacks, Russia continues to make poor use of fire and maneuver, preferring tank/armor ‘charges’ across open areas and down roads. This brings them into prepared kill zones where these forces are stopped and destroyed.
The most significant change in Russian tactics is on the Avdiivka front, where Russian is doing a much better job of launching what one could consider combined arms attacks.
When Ukraine lacks the artillery, Russian forces are able to penetrate in mass and overwhelm the fewer Ukrainian defenders.
Russian organization and capabilities make it unlikely that they will be able to quickly take advantage of penetrations into Ukrainian defenses. Poor training and lack of leadership at all levels, combined with poor logistic trains, will prevent any major breakouts beyond initial penetration of lines.
Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage. Russia is relying heavily on N Korean artillery rounds and Iranian drone/missiles.
Russian appears to be continuing to shepherd its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2022./23 This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage. Ammo shortages are starting to impact Ukraine ADA defenses.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. Ukraine continues to engage and destroy Russian naval vessels..
While the Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine, early in this winter/spring offensive, Russian has more aggressively conducted CAS in support of ground troops, reflecting ADA shortages. As a result, Russia has been able to locally seize air superiority at key locations along the front - the first time in two years of fighting. This has been at a cost, with a number Su-34/35 aircraft being lost in the last part of February alone as well as critical A50 AWAC systems.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.
Unknowns at this time are how soon ammo supples will start hitting Ukrainian units. Long range ATACMS and German Taurus cruise missiles may be coming on line soon for Ukraine as well as F-16s (now reportedly due in late spring/early summer). But the most critical item is artillery ammo.
*****
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 30-70 range with some local highs into the 70s. No significant precipitation in the forecast.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Fierce fighting continues in the Avdiivka and Bakhumt sectors. The deep war is at a pause for the moment.
Follow-up on yesterday’s massive Ukrainian UAV assault on 4 Russian airbases.
・Su-34 / Su-24/30: 6 destroyed, 8 damaged, 20 soldiers killed/wounded at Morozovsk
・Tu-95: 3 destroyed/damaged, crew of 7 killed at Engels
・Su-25: 2 destroyed at Yeysk
· Results pending at Kursk
One can essentially call the ‘damaged’ planes destroyed as well due to severe limitations on repair parts. These are significant numbers.
An unidentified vessel of the Black Sea Fleet popped off some missiles towards Odesa overnight. Could be a submarine - they have some equipped for that task just like we do.
Russian Territory –
Ukrainian military intelligence claimed to have caused an explosion at oil products pipeline near Azov town of Rostov region.
Outlook —
Fierce fighting is expected to continue along the eastern front, concentrated in the Avdiivka and Bakhumt sectors. These attacks seem to be less and less coordinated and very costly for Russia, with Russia looking to wear down Ukraine defenses by the sheer volume and size of the units in the attack.
Reports of recent attacks have Russian forces lead vehicles being stopped by anti armor fire, causing the attacking column to stop, then all heck breaks out as a turkey shoot ensues. This with glaring evidence of the absence of supporting Russian artillery to suppress Ukrainian fire.
Moldova/Transnistria -
Russian media claims that Ukraine launched a drone into the breakaway republic of Transnistria (legally part of Moldova) and destroyed a military radar station there.
ISRAEL –
Dates to remember -
Ramadan March 11 - April 8
Key overnight developments -
- Hamas says refuses to ‘back down’ on Gaza ceasefire demands
- Reports that Iran will initiate its revenge attacks by the end of Ramadan.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
***
The Israeli military has said it has recovered the body of a hostage from Gaza. The Israeli army said it recovered the body of 47-year-old Elad Katzir overnight in Khan Younis. The IDF and ISA said in a joint statement: “The body of the abductee Elad Katzir, who according to intelligence was murdered in captivity by the Islamic Jihad terrorist organization, was rescued overnight from Khan Yunis and returned to Israeli territory.”
Hamas has rejected western ceasefire offers, says that “Our delegation will head to Cairo tomorrow, Sunday, to hold ceasefire talks in Gaza”
Axios is reporting that the House of Representatives will vote next week on a draft resolution criticizing Biden for calling for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza.
Biden on Friday wrote to the leaders of Egypt and Qatar, calling on them to press Hamas for a hostage deal with Israel, a senior administration official said, … The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said Biden’s national security adviser will meet Monday with family members of some of the estimated 100 hostages who are believed to still be in Gaza.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
IDF continued search and destroy operations throughout Gaza while preparing for entry into Rafah as well as preparing for Iranian attacks.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
IAF and artillery continue to conduct strikes throughout S Lebanon in response to Hezbollah attacks.
Three missiles were launched from southern Lebanon towards Israeli positions near Al-Malikiyah in the Upper Galilee.
IAF fighter jets on Friday evening struck a military compound of the Amal Movement, where a number of its terrorists operated in the area of Marjaayoun in southern Lebanon.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Iran has placed all its armed forces on full high alert and a decision has been made that Iran must respond directly this time to create deterrence, two Iranian officials say - NYT
Iran’s army chief says that US was involved in the attack on its consulate in Damascus, despite Washington clear rejections of these accusation.
Iran said it asked the US to “step aside” as the country prepares a response to a suspected Israeli attack on its consulate in Syria, Bloomberg reports
There is a nasty RUMOR out there that the US cut a deal with Iran. If the US does not intervene to stop the attack, Iran will not attack American forces in Iraq.
U.S. official: U.S. is on high alert in anticipation of an Iranian response to an Israeli raid in Damascus
US has picked up intelligence that Iran is planning a retaliatory attack against Israel that would include a swarm of Shaheed loitering drones and cruise missiles. Officials say the timing and target are unknown, but a proportional response to the Damascus attack would be to hit an Israeli diplomatic facility. The attack is likely to come between now and the end of Ramadan next week
RUMINT. Movement of Iranian-backed militias has been noted in Southwestern Syria towards the border with Lebanon and on the outskirts of Damascus.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Israeli security forces conducted numerous raids overnight at multiple locations across the West Bank.
——— FORECAST ————————-
Clock is ticking on when Iran will pull the tigger and launch its attack. Current intelligence and speculation is that the attack will hit by the end of Ramadan. Again, how involved will Hezbollah get with its thousands of rockets at the ready?
One aspect that is not being looked closely at by some is the limited anti-ballistic missile systems Iran has that will be tasked to protect itself. It has some S300 and S400 systems - and clones, but it suffers from a similar problem Russia has - too many targets and not enough ADA. Second, these systems are largely untested in real combat - in a hostile EW and cyberwar environment they may not hold up well.
Israel has the following cruise and ballistic missiles:
Delilah
EXTRA
Gabriel
Harpoon
Jericho 1
Jericho 2
Jericho 3
LORA
Popeye
Israel has battle proven air defense systems and a much smaller footprint to cover. Just in the first months of the war, Israel’s Arrow system did the first exoatmospheric intercept of a Houthi launched ballistic missile under combat conditions.
At this stage, there are some rumblings about Iran’s nuclear status. There are some that think Iran has a nuclear warhead mountable on its missiles. That is based upon a lot of assumptions and there is no firm evidence. If Iran does and is foolish to try to use it in this attack, dark days will arrive on Iran following a flash of bright light.
Iran is also wanting to keep the US out of the loop. It doesn’t surprise me that they would make the request for us to ‘stand aside’ and not interfere with the attack. What does concern me is the RUMINT that biden may have linked that standing aside to a promise that Iran will not target US assets. That is stabbing Israel in the back.
It appears that the world is working overtime to make the incidental deaths of those food workers into a new holocaust. biden’s threat to totally remove US support if Israel doesn’t immediately and unilaterally institute a ceasefire is echoed around the world. Totally tone deaf to the hostages Hamas et al continue to hold as well as their flat out refusal to any kind of an exchange short of an Israeli surrender.
Which brings me to Rafah. I suspect that the impending Iranian attack may be delaying operations there so that Israel will have the maximum resources as needed for a response to Iran, Hezbollah and any others how join in the attack. Only delay and not stop the assault, though, which may well start after Ramadan.
Iran – HIGH Warning for supported attacks against Israeli and US interests across the globe. Apr 2, 2024
See Israel above for analysis. Clock is ticking and the next 24-48 hours may be decisive for the region.
***
INDICATOR OF IMPENDING ACTION - Iran’s Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces Major General Mohammad Bagheri on the move (based on callsign) out of Tehran to Esfahan/Badr, an airbase used by the IRGCAF.
Syria -
East Syria: ISIS launched last night an attack near Maadan Atiq (SE. Raqqa desert), reaching the N4 Highway. At least 2 pro-Assad fighters were killed. Pace of IS attacks increased, despite regular RuAF & SyAF airstrikes.
Al-Raqqa: ISIS launches an attack on the positions of the government forces in the city of Maadan Atiq, coinciding with the sound of explosions being heard near the Al-Qaws area, west of Deir Ezzor.
OBSERVATION - Syria is facing a renewed threat from ISIS and may well be forced to curtail its attacks in the north against rebels to turn and fact this threat.
Mexico -
The President of Mexico, Andrés Manuel López Obrador has announced the breaking of diplomatic ties with Ecuador, following the storming of the Mexican Embassy in the Capital of Quito earlier tonight by Ecuadorian Special Police to arrest of former-Vice President of Ecuador, Jorge Glas who had been hiding at the Embassy since December.
Central / South America General-
Ecuador’s special forces invaded the Mexican Embassy and captured former Vice President of Ecuador Jorge Glas. Mexico granted asylum to him. Ecuador just declared the Mexican Ambassador persona non grata.
Armenia/Azerbaijan –
Rumors of Armenain military units deploying to the border region with Azerbaijan.
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