Back again.
Resurrection Sunday approaches tomorrow, so will be unlikely to post unless something serious occurs.
Remember, in these times of turmoil and anxiety, the tomb is empty as Jesus promised and He will soon return just as He also promised.
Democrat national holiday is this Monday
Quick note on some of the additional warnings I’ve been placing on various subject areas. You will see the alert status and the date issued / reviewed.
“Heightened THREAT” is a level where the potential for bad is there, but there are no defined action indicators of an even being imminent.
“Moderate” Situations where there are definite indicators or warnings of an serious actions or events.
“HIGH” - Imminent actions or ongoing situations of a critical nature
“War Warning” - Situations and statements that could be portents of a war.
I try to be conservative in what I label. In some views just about every thing should be holding in the moderate or high category. That just swamps the system from identifying / alerting to other more pressing dangers. Still kind of a work in progress.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
There are videos going viral showing plain clothed FBI agents visiting people’s houses to ask questions about offensive social media posts. These visits the FBI agents are reluctant to show ID or badges.
OBSERVATION - Two concerns, the first being FBI unannounced visits on the basis of clearly 1 amendment free speech. The second questions if they really are FBI or impersonators. Apparently in one instance, they were FBI.
Will need to watch to see if this becomes a growing trend. If continues, this clearly is an effort to intimidate citizens from media posts that criticize alleged criminals?
***
Now about 7 months out from the general elections and the radical leftists have once again appeared to have lost traction. Initially volatile protests against opponents of transgenderism have largely died down - except for some actions on college campuses. The initially massive, pro-hamas protests too have lost traction, zeroing down to much smaller scale actions.
Current protests by the left seem more focused on biden and democrat support of Israel than counter-Trump. I cannot imagine going much longer without major protests and rioting, but there is no fuel wood to catch from the kindling so far. Common sense and historical reality screams that massive protest/riots should be ramping up. Are they waiting until July and the RNC convention?
Speaking of the RNC convention -
(FO) According to left wing media, the Milwaukee Public Works Committee may block a permit for the “Coalition to March Against the RNC” to protest the Republican National Convention (RNC) on 15 July.
According to one report, the Milwaukee Police Department had reserved the right to revoke the permit if any of the protest organizers had previously engaged in destructive or violent behavior during a political march or rally.
Following public opposition, the Public Works Committee will determine the parade route, time allotted for the march, and ultimately, if the permit is revoked due to possible violent or destructive behavior.
OBSERVATION - I expect a lot of Antifa et al protesting against the RNC. What is still flying under the radar is the probability of large, violent protests at the DNC convention with the convergence of anti-Israel and anti-illegal (predominantly black) protests.
Terrorism - Heightened THREAT Mar 30 2024
Ramadan thru about April 8.
This warning UPDATED as of March 30, 2024
ELEVATED RISK - Potential military action against Iranian assets for the attack that killed US forces in Jordan could result in Iranian terror groups here in the US to activate and conduct terror ops here. These attacks can range from infrastructure destruction (water, power, communications, etc) to mass casualty events or attacks on political candidates - heavily leaning against current administration but also Trump as well. So far the govt hasn’t come out with any warnings but the risk has increased significantly the last 24 hours, based on common sense and stated goals of the Islamist movement/Iran.
***
The official ISIS spokesman has released a statement calling for “lone wolf” supporters to start carrying out attacks in US, Europe and Israel against “Jews and Christians”
Economy-
Both inflation-adjusted (“Real”) Disposable Personal Income (DPI) and the average American’s personal savings rate declined sharply in February, data released Friday by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) show.
Seasonally-adjusted Disposable Personal Income, rose 0.2 percent in February, recording the slowest month-to-month growth since last October (also 0.2 percent).
In real terms, however, disposable personal income (personal income less personal current taxes), declined 0.1 percent, based on chained (2017) dollars. Real DPI had been rising at a decreasing rate (month-to-month), from 0.4 in November, to 0.2 in December, to 0.0 in January, before February’s decline.
Real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) rose 0.4 percent, following January’s 0.2 percent drop and December’s 0.5 percent rise.
With real disposable income down and expenditures up, Americans’ personal savings rate fell to the lowest level in more than two years. On January 1, 2024, the savings rate was 4.1 percent. By February 1, it had dropped to 3.6 percent – the lowest savings rate since it was 3.4 percent on December 1, 2022.
OBSERVATION - A typical Friday data dump of bad news. Numbers indicate that the ‘bideneconomics’ is a failure.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
According to CEO of GCaptain and maritime journalist John Konrad, four Ready Reserve Force ships are stuck in the Baltimore port — the SS Antares, MV Cape Washington, MV Gary I. Gordon, and the SS Denebola.
He said the four ships being stuck is a “huge problem if a war starts [but] not much of a problem if the next few months are peaceful.”
“The big problem with that is two of the stuck ships are SL-7 rapid response ships,” he said, referring to the Antares and the Denebola. “SL-7s are the first to go if the balloon goes up because no other cargo ships have their speed,” he said.
OBSERVATION - These are not the only vessels of their kind as the other are distributed across the ports in this country. It does demonstrate a loss of ability to get supplies across the Atlantic in the event of a blow-up in Europe or the Middle East..
***
Different branches of the United States Armed Forces violated their own rules in handling requests for exemptions from the military’s Wuhan coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccine mandate.
This is according to a report from the Inspector General of the Department of Defense, which found that both the Army and the Air Force went well over time requirements for processing exemption requests.
In a sampling of 12 religious exemption requests submitted to the Army, the average processing time was 192 days. The Army requirement is to complete reviews for exemption applications within 90 days.
In a sampling of 35 religious accommodation requests submitted to the Air Force, the branch took an average of 168 days to process them despite the branch’s requirement being 30 days for processing.
As of January 2023, when the mandate was pulled because of a new law, more than 16,200 religious exemption requests had been filed. Just 339 had been approved.
OBSERVATION - This is just the tip of the iceberg in the foul manner the military handled the wuhan jabs. Lawsuits are in progress over the illegal use of the uncleared version of the jab as well as blanket / form letter rejections of exemption requests as well as now law suits over the vast number of harmful reactions from the jab, including heart disease, fertility issues, cancers etc. Calls for accountability, but I’m doubtful anyone will be charged.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –
A mystery illness that’s impacted dairy herds in the Texas Panhandle, New Mexico and Kansas now has a diagnosis: Influenza A. USDA says genetic sequencing revealed it’s the same strain of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) that’s been in the U.S. for two years.
APHIS says the “National Veterinary Services Laboratories” detected Influenza “A” in samples from several impacted herds in Texas, Kansas and New Mexico. The virus is carried by wild waterfowl, which experts think is how the illness is spreading. Even with the diagnosis, USDA is still not recommending movement restrictions of animals.
According to the Texas Department of Agriculture, Texas Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller received confirmation from the United States Secretary of Agriculture, Tom Vilsack, and the Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) that the mystery disease has been identified as a strain of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) commonly known as Bird Flu. To date, three dairies in Texas and one in Kansas have tested positive for HPAI.
USDA reports that affected dairy cows do not appear to be transmitting the virus to other cattle within the same herd. APHIS says based on findings from Texas, “the detections appear to have been introduced by wild birds. Initial testing by the National Veterinary Services Laboratories has not found changes to the virus that would make it more transmissible to humans, which would indicate that the current risk to the public remains low.”
OBSERVATION - That this virus has accomplished a jump across species lines should be of a concern. So far the mutation hasn’t had the lethality observed in flocks. But watch should be maintained in the event it mutates further to infect humans.
POLITICAL FRONT –
July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
See CW2 above for comments on convention riots/protests.
China –
See “Philippines” below
Phillipines –
Philippines President Ferdinand Marcos, Jr. warned that his government was formulating a response to Chinese aggression within their disputed territory. “Filipinos do not yield,” he added. A spokesman for the Chinese defense ministry said the Philippines were headed “down a dangerous path.”
OBSERVATION - This follows the recent ‘fire hose’ attack by Chinese Coast Guard vessels against Philippine resupply ships. Philippine sailors were injured in the assault. One of these days lead instead of water will be flying.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Mar 21, 2024.
Russia has taken advantage of Ukrainian ammo shortages, forcing them into primary defensive operations, and has seized the initiative following the fall of Avdiivka. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. The attacks are scattered along the front, concentrating on five axises of attack -
- Avdiivka,
- Maryinka,
- Robotyne,
- Kremenka and
- Bakhmut.
Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.
With the exception of Avdiivka, initial Russia attacks along the other axises have had poor results and exceptionally heavy losses. Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with. In some cases, over 70% of these newer tanks have been destroyed or captured by Ukraine.
In these other attacks, Russia continues to make poor use of fire and maneuver, preferring tank/armor ‘charges’ across open areas and down roads. This brings them into prepared kill zones where these forces are stopped and destroyed.
The most significant change in Russian tactics is on the Avdiivka front, where Russian is doing a much better job of launching what one could consider combined arms attacks.
When Ukraine lacks the artillery, Russian forces are able to penetrate in mass and overwhelm the fewer Ukrainian defenders.
Russian organization and capabilities make it unlikely that they will be able to quickly take advantage of penetrations into Ukrainian defenses. Poor training and lack of leadership at all levels, combined with poor logistic trains, will prevent any major breakouts beyond initial penetration of lines.
Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage. Russia is relying heavily on N Korean artillery rounds and Iranian drone/missiles.
Russian appears to be continuing to shepherd its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2022./23 This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage. Ammo shortages are starting to impact Ukraine ADA defenses.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. Ukraine continues to engage and destroy Russian naval vessels..
While the Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine, early in this winter/spring offensive, Russian has more aggressively conducted CAS in support of ground troops, reflecting ADA shortages. As a result, Russia has been able to locally seize air superiority at key locations along the front - the first time in two years of fighting. This has been at a cost, with a number Su-34/35 aircraft being lost in the last part of February alone as well as critical A50 AWAC systems.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.
Unknowns at this time are how soon ammo supples will start hitting Ukrainian units. Long range ATACMS and German Taurus cruise missiles may be coming on line soon for Ukraine as well as F-16s (now reportedly due in late spring/early summer). But the most critical item is artillery ammo.
*****
The Russian navy’s Pacific Fleet has confirmed that it sent several of its warships through the Bab al-Mandab Strait and into the Red Sea - See “Israel” below.
***
The Russian Orthodox Church has approved a document that deems President Vladimir Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine a “Holy War.”
The declaration came during a congress of the World Russian People’s Council in which religious, political and cultural figures in the country met at the site of Moscow’s Cathedral of Christ the Savior, a focal point for the Orthodox faith in Russia.
https://www.newsweek.com/russia-ukraine-war-holy-1884577
Logistics –
Russia has dramatically increased imports of gasoline from Belarus to make up for production losses to Ukraine drones. Russia has essentially ceased out of country exports of gasoline in order to maintain domestic and military supplies.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 30-60 range with some local highs into the 70s. No significant precipitation in the forecast.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down 9 of 15 Shahed drones. Selydove of Donetsk region was hit as a result of Russian missile strike with 2 S-300 missiles.
Thurs/Fri -Ukrainian air defense shot down 58 of 60 Shahed drones, 17 of 21 Kh-101 cruise missiles, 5 of 9 Kh-59 missiles, 4 of 4 Iskander-K cruise missiles. Russian army also launched 3 Kh47m2 missiles, 2 Iskander-M missiles. Most were targeting the Ukrainian power grid
On Friday, In occupied Crimea, Russian air defense units shot down their own fighter/bombers in a friendly fire incident. Conflicting information on whether it was Su-35 or Su-27.
Ground fighting along the fronts remains static.
Outlook —
An initial assessment of the Russian offensive since Oct 23 is that they have captured only about 195 sq miles. Most of this in the Avdiivka sector. Though Ukraine is in crisis mode for artillery ammo, their drone production sector is exploding (no pun intended) and in some ways making up for shortages. Russia is still struggling to counter the tactical drone blitz that not only nails front line units - but is increasingly going deeper after supply and logistical targets.
It looks like the icejqm is breaking and Ukraine will be getting a lot of artillery ammo in the near future. This will serve to reinforce Ukraine defenses and probably end for all practical purposes the Russian ground offensive until later this year.
Russia has stepped up their attack on the Ukraine power grid, hitting dams and coal plants with associated electrical switching yards hard with their better, more difficult to intercept missiles. The question is beginning to shift on how much longer can Russia support these attacks with their limited missile stockpiles. A lot depends on how quickly and how much support the Russians can get from Iran for ballistic missiles. News of use of N Korean missiles has dropped off the radar screen, due I suspect in part to the poor quality of the systems. Iran, OTOH have far better quality and proven systems. At this stage, the problem is how to get the massive quantities necessary from Iran to Russia. the other problem is the growing storm clouds of a potential direct conflict with Israel.
Moldova/Transnistria -
Reports that Russian missiles once again violated Moldovan airspace in attacking Ukraine.
Belarus -
Combat readiness inspection of the 19th Mechanized Brigade continues. The proximity of these exercises to the Suwałki Gap has raised some concerns over the potential of a quick attack to link Belarus to Kaliningrad
Suwałki Gap, also known as the Suwałki corridor, is a sparsely populated area around the border between Lithuania and Poland, and centers on the shortest path between Belarus and the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad Oblast on the Polish side of the border.
Europe / NATO General –
Romania has announced that they have found the debris of a Russian suicide drone near Braila. It’s the 5th Russian suicide drone to strike Romania since the war started.
***
Poland suspends the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe, the document was signed by President Duda.
The denunciation means that Warsaw will no longer fulfill the treaty’s provisions regarding the number of armed forces and their locations
***
Over 1,600 European planes have been impacted by GPS interference in less than two days, in the Baltic Region.
***
Estonia’s top military general said the country needs to double defense spending over the next two years to inflict a decisive defeat against a possible Russian invasion, which he says could come in three years. Polish President Donald Tusk recently said NATO is in a “pre-war era,” while Putin continues to say accusations of a Russian invasion are “nonsense.”
***
Polish and Czech intelligence services say they raided a Russian spy network in Poland and a Czech-based “Russian propaganda” group that “spread information discouraging the European Union from sending aid to Ukraine.”
SERBIA / KOSOVO -
Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic sparked concerns across Europe after he issued a grim and enigmatic statement of threats to Serbia. So far there have been no indicators of any impending issue that would rise to the level of concern expressed by Vucic.
ISRAEL –
Dates to remember -
Ramadan March 11 - April 8
Key overnight developments -
- IAF airstrike takes out major ammo and other military supply dumps near Aleppo.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still 105 being held hostage in Gaza.
***
More UN calls for ceasefire and allowing food into Gaza
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Intensive fighting in western Khan Yunis overnight.
Intense fighting continues around the Shifa Hospital complex.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
IAF and artillery continue to conduct strikes throughout S Lebanon.
For the second or third time this month, Hezbollah appears to be conducting a major exercise in and around the Lebanese capital of Beirut to test the deployment readiness of heavy combat forces as well as the evacuation capability of high-ranking leadership from command centers in the city; this likely continues to be preparation for an Israeli ground invasion of Southern Lebanon which would involve significant missile and airstrikes against Hezbollah assets in Beirut.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
AFP reports that 36 Syrian soldiers have been killed in an Israeli strike near Aleppo. Israeli airstrikes against IRGC & Assad regime weapons depots near the Aleppo Airport & other places in Syria
The video shows massive secondary explosions as the Iranian weapons explode after the airstrikes. Hezbollah announces in a statement the killing of 3 of its members in Syria as a result of the strike.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Israeli security forces conducted numerous raids overnight at multiple locations across the West Bank.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Jordanian official: “Hamas is inciting and trying to ignite unrest inside the kingdom. We will not allow it to achieve its goal.”
***
The Russian navy’s Pacific Fleet has confirmed that it sent several of its warships through the Bab al-Mandab Strait and into the Red Sea, at a moment Houthi attacks against international shipping is ongoing, and as the waters are still being patrolled by the US-led military coalition.
Russian defense ministry sources identified that the Russian cruiser Varyag and the frigate Marshal Shaposhnikov are engaged in the patrol mission, but it remains unclear whether additional support vessels are participating as well.
State-run TASS describes that the warships are carrying out “assigned tasks within the framework of the long-range sea campaign.” The ultimate destination of the vessels has not been disclosed.
The Varyag and Marshal Shaposhnikov had earlier this month participated in joint naval drills involving Iran, China, and Russia in the Indian Ocean - which Moscow described at the time as practicing “safety in maritime economic activities.”
OBSERVATION - Some currently believe the ships are enroute to the Med Sea.
——— FORECAST ————————-
Activity around Shifa Hospital continues to be hot, as it appears that Hamas elements not only migrated into the hospital (now cleared out), but the remnants of tunnel networks near and around it. Some see this as a “honey pot’ set up by Israel to lure Hamas elements into what they think is a ‘safe zone’ only to allow them to be concentrated and eliminated more easily.
Special note of the Hezbollah exercises in/around Beirut. These are an clear indicator for the preparation for war. Hezbollah’s eyes have been opened up to the fact that Israel will not play by its rules this time around and that Hezbollah centers in the Beirut region will be fair game.
Post Oct7th analysis of Hama’s attacks indicate the threat that Israel was facing from Hezbollah. Basically, Hamas tipped the hand. Hezbollah’s plan was similar to how Hamas attacked. It would begin with a massive rocket attack which would provide cover for Hezbollah ground elements to invade into Israel to seize critical territory before the IDF could muster a counter attack. The events of Oct 7 stripped that element of surprise away for Hezbollah as IDF forces initially deployed in force in the north before responding to the terror attacks out of Gaza.
Hezbollah’s game plan going forward will still rely upon a massive rocket/missile attack, but the accompanying ‘surprise’ ground assault has lost its punch now with increased Israeli surveillance and force readiness. I suspect that Hezbollah may be shifting to a more defensive posture than offensive on the ground.
Finally, Russian naval vessels plying thru the Red Sea is an interesting scenario - given the growing friendship between Russian and Iran and Iran’s support of the Houthis. I doubt that they will interfere with operations against Houthis but we will know better in a couple days.
AMEN and AMEN!!!!!
Even so come quickly, Lord Jesus.
Democrat national holiday today
Don’t jump at all ‘news’ articles today.
Quick note on some of the additional warnings I’ve been placing on various subject areas. You will see the alert status and the date issued / reviewed.
“Heightened THREAT” is a level where the potential for bad is there, but there are no defined action indicators of an even being imminent.
“Moderate” Situations where there are definite indicators or warnings of an serious actions or events.
“HIGH” - Imminent actions or ongoing situations of a critical nature
“War Warning” - Situations and statements that could be portents of a war.
I try to be conservative in what I label. In some views just about every thing should be holding in the moderate or high category. That just swamps the system from identifying / alerting to other more pressing dangers. Still kind of a work in progress.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
The DOJ is ordering Google to release the names and addresses of YouTube viewers who watched specific videos. (Fox)
OBSERVATION - Some are believing this to be linked to the recent visitations by the FBI to various folks and their posts on social media.
***
Pro-hamas et al claim the establishment of an “Autonomous Zone for Palestine” in Manhattan, NYC. It is based loosely on the CHAZ concept seen in Seattle in 2020.
***
Pro-hamas and even Transtifias show up to disturb Christian Services marking the Resurrection of Jesus. Scattered vandalism noted.
Terrorism - Heightened THREAT Mar 30 2024
Ramadan thru about April 8.
This warning UPDATED as of March 30, 2024
ELEVATED RISK - Potential military action against Iranian assets for the attack that killed US forces in Jordan could result in Iranian terror groups here in the US to activate and conduct terror ops here. These attacks can range from infrastructure destruction (water, power, communications, etc) to mass casualty events or attacks on political candidates - heavily leaning against current administration but also Trump as well. So far the govt hasn’t come out with any warnings but the risk has increased significantly the last 24 hours, based on common sense and stated goals of the Islamist movement/Iran.
***
The official ISIS spokesman has released a statement calling for “lone wolf” supporters to start carrying out attacks in US, Europe and Israel against “Jews and Christians”
***
Listing this here for now -
A Chinese national who entered the U.S. illegally was arrested after sneaking onto a Marine Corps base in California and refusing to leave, U.S. Customs and Border Protection confirmed. Border Patrol agents confirmed to a local news outlet that the Chinese national was arrested Wednesday after entering onto the Marine Corps base in Twentynine Palms. “His purpose & intent behind his actions are still being investigated,” Border Patrol Chief Patrol Agent Gregory K. Bovino posted on X.
According to the Daily Mail, there have been over 100 instances of Chinese nationals infiltrating military bases in the U.S. over the past few years. This includes over 100 that have illegally gone to Guam over the past couple years.
OBSERVATION - The threat from Chinese agents against US infrastructure continues to grow and the latest are pretty aggressive actions.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
US Army Corps of Engineers has mobilized three massive cranes to begin the removal of debris at the Baltimore harbor from the collapse of the Francis Scott Key bridge. The first sections were remove yesterday.
Two of the many Navy ‘fast transport’ cargo ships are trapped in the harbor.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –
Study of the latest “excess death” reports from the CDC indicate that since the start of the jab in Nov 2021, there were 1,069,943 excess deaths were recorded among people aged over 65 from the first time they were offered the COVID-19 vaccine to week 1 of 2024.
NOTE- this is nearly the number of deaths ‘ATTRIBUTED’ to wuhan (remember, they count it as wuhan if detected but death by other cause).
Biden / Harris Watch –
Biden et al was hammered over the weekend over the exclusion of any ‘religion’ symbols’ for Easter art and even more so for recognizing “Transgender Visibility Day” over that of Easter. Where politics and religion are crossing, biden continues to display total disregard for the vast number of Christians in this country - regardless of his claims to be a ‘uniter’.
Illegal Immigration –
A magistrate judge in El Paso has ordered Texas to release illegals arrested for their violent entry into the country last week.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Mar 21, 2024.
Russia has taken advantage of Ukrainian ammo shortages, forcing them into primary defensive operations, and has seized the initiative following the fall of Avdiivka. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. The attacks are scattered along the front, concentrating on five axises of attack -
- Avdiivka,
- Maryinka,
- Robotyne,
- Kremenka and
- Bakhmut.
Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.
With the exception of Avdiivka, initial Russia attacks along the other axises have had poor results and exceptionally heavy losses. Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with. In some cases, over 70% of these newer tanks have been destroyed or captured by Ukraine.
In these other attacks, Russia continues to make poor use of fire and maneuver, preferring tank/armor ‘charges’ across open areas and down roads. This brings them into prepared kill zones where these forces are stopped and destroyed.
The most significant change in Russian tactics is on the Avdiivka front, where Russian is doing a much better job of launching what one could consider combined arms attacks.
When Ukraine lacks the artillery, Russian forces are able to penetrate in mass and overwhelm the fewer Ukrainian defenders.
Russian organization and capabilities make it unlikely that they will be able to quickly take advantage of penetrations into Ukrainian defenses. Poor training and lack of leadership at all levels, combined with poor logistic trains, will prevent any major breakouts beyond initial penetration of lines.
Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage. Russia is relying heavily on N Korean artillery rounds and Iranian drone/missiles.
Russian appears to be continuing to shepherd its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2022./23 This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage. Ammo shortages are starting to impact Ukraine ADA defenses.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. Ukraine continues to engage and destroy Russian naval vessels..
While the Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine, early in this winter/spring offensive, Russian has more aggressively conducted CAS in support of ground troops, reflecting ADA shortages. As a result, Russia has been able to locally seize air superiority at key locations along the front - the first time in two years of fighting. This has been at a cost, with a number Su-34/35 aircraft being lost in the last part of February alone as well as critical A50 AWAC systems.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.
Unknowns at this time are how soon ammo supples will start hitting Ukrainian units. Long range ATACMS and German Taurus cruise missiles may be coming on line soon for Ukraine as well as F-16s (now reportedly due in late spring/early summer). But the most critical item is artillery ammo.
*****
Russia: Fish processing plant burned down in Khimki, Moscow. Arson suspected - most of the employees are migrants from Tajikistan, the exact demographic facing repressions and mass arrests from the Kremlin
Russia is demanding that Ukraine hand over all people connected with terrorist acts committed in Russia, including the head of the country’s SBU Security Service, the foreign ministry said on Sunday.
“The Russian side demands that the Kyiv regime immediately cease all support for terrorist activity, extradite guilty parties and compensate the victims for damages,” the ministry statement said.
“Ukraine’s violation of its obligations under anti-terrorist conventions will result in it being held to account in international legal terms.”
Russian Personnel Issues –-
Russia is reportedly recruiting about 30,000 military personnel every month to participate in the war. This rapid mobilization pace enables Russia to sustain heavy losses while continuing attacks that deplete the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Putin’s signed a decree for the spring conscription, calling up 150,000 citizens for a years statutory military service.
NOTE - This appears to be the routine annual call up of conscripts and nothing in addition.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 30-60 range with some local highs into the 70s. No significant precipitation in the forecast.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Saturday night - Ukrainian air defense shot down 9 of 11 Shahed drones and 9 of 14 Kh-101 cruise missiles
Russian aviation launching guided bombs towards Kharkiv region.
Ukrainian forces appear to have repelled a Russian battalion-sized mechanized assault near Avdiivka, Donetsk Oblast, on March 30 — the first battalion-sized mechanized assault since Russian forces began the campaign to seize Avdiivka in late October 2023.
The assault occurred near the village of Tonenke in the Avdiivka sector. The Russians used a significant amount of heavy equipment: 36 tanks, 12 BMP.
Ukraine destroyed 12 tanks and 8 BMP out of that assault force, forcing the remainder to retreat.
Bakhmut -
Russian forces attempting to push towards Chasiv Yar, west of Bakhmut.
Outlook —
The extent that Ukraine - a country without a navy - has devastated and neutralized the Black Sea Fleet is amazing. Some statistics I came up illustrate that clearly
Kalibr launches before Ukraine’s Black Sea Fleet Strikes:
January 2023 - 40 launched
February 2023 -32 launched
March-April 2023 - 18 launched
May 2023 - 29 launched
June 2023 - 20 launched
July 2023 - 55 launched
August 2024 - 32 launched
September 2023 - 14 launched
Ukraine’s strikes on the Russian Black Sea Fleet Headquarters in Sevastopol and strikes on two Russian ships in Sevastopol at the middle to end of September
October 2023 - 0 launched
November 2023 - 0 launched
December 2023 - 0 launched
January 2024 - 3 launched
February 2024 - 5 launched
March 2024 - 0 launched
In fact, reports now indicate that remaining Russian naval vessels have departed ports in Crimea for ports farther to the east in Russia. This accounts for the shift in Russian ‘deep strike’ attacks being mostly done by strategic bombers/cruise missiles and Iranian drones - easier to take down by ADA. The Kaliber missile is much harder to take down.
The battalion sized assault in the Avdivvka sector illustrates that Russia is placing a priority on the offensive there. I haven’t reviewed videos of the attack yet, but given the losses I suspect that it is another one of the Russians running into the open, single file and going straight into a kill zone. No real fire and maneuver to speak of to cover the assault.
Moldova/Transnistria -
Reports that Russian missiles once again violated Moldovan airspace in attacking Ukraine over the weekend.
ISRAEL –
Dates to remember -
Ramadan March 11 - April 8
Key overnight developments -
- IDF officially pulling out of the Shifa Hospital complex
- Israel believes only 60-70 hostages are still alive.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
***
Israel’s official count for the number of people still being held hostage in the Gaza Strip remains at 134 mostly Israeli citizens as well as some foreigners, which includes possibly deceased victims. Amid stalled truce negotiations in Qatar, the Israeli newspaper Haaretz has revealed that Israeli officials believe only 60 to 70 Israeli hostages in Gaza are still alive.
***
Leftists protested in Tel Aviv Sunday demanding more efforts to free hostages and generally oppose Netanyahu.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said Sunday that senior Hamas operatives captured by troops in the Gaza Strip have told interrogators “the group is collapsing from within.” “In the last week or two, hundreds of terrorists have been captured and what they say about what happened to them tells the whole story. They say that Hamas is collapsing from within, the price they are paying is very heavy,” Gallant said following an assessment at the 98th Division’s headquarters.
OBSERVATION - While one should note that there is a lot of propaganda wrapped up in this statement, the fundamentals appear to be on track.
***
Operations in the Shifa Hospital complex are reportedly winding down and Israeli forces are pulling out. This follows a two week plus battle with approximately 1000 hamas terrorists who set up shop in the hospital, apparently thinking it was now ‘safe’ to do so since the initial Israeli action clearing the hospital and ground.
The Nahal Brigade’s reconnaissance unit found weapons, including mortars, explosive devices, sniper rifles, assault rifles, handguns and other military equipment hidden inside patient pillows and beds, and in the dropped ceilings and walls of the building, according to the IDF.
The reconnaissance unit also encountered and killed senior Hamas operatives Fadi Dweik and Zakaria Najib during a chase and exchange of fire in the maternity ward last week.
During the operation, about 350 patients and medical staff at Shifa Hospital were evacuated by the IDF to a “designated compound” in another part of the complex, where the military has provided them with humanitarian aid and supplies.
***
In general, over the weekend Israeli operations were conducted against Hamas forces conducted clearing operations in and around al Shifa Hospital in Gaza City.
Central Gaza: The IDF said that its Air Force conducted a drone strike targeting a PIJ command-and-control center in the al Aqsa Hospital complex in Deir al Balah.
Southern Gaza: Israeli forces continued to conduct clearing operations in Khan Younis.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
IAF and artillery continue to conduct strikes throughout S Lebanon.
The Israeli army announces the bombing of about 10 Hezbollah sites in Rashaya Al-Fakhar, southern Lebanon
The Israeli Air Force struck and killed Hezbollah’s Deputy commander of its Rocket and Missile Unit on Friday in an airstrike in Southern Lebanon, the Israeli military announced.
“Ali was considered to be a significant source of knowledge in the terrorist organization and leader in the field of rockets. He was also one of the leaders for heavy-warhead rocket fire and responsible for conducting and planning attacks against Israeli civilians,” the Israel Defense Forces said in a statement.
***
Unconfirmed reports from Syrian and Hezbollah Sources are claiming that the Israeli Defense Force have begun to remove several minefields in the Northern Golan Heights, (Shebaa Farms area) in a possible attempt to avoid a direct offensive against Hezbollah into Southern Lebanon and instead bypass it towards the central parts of the country.
OBSERVATION - Indicator of an impending attack. If one looks at the map of the region, the Shebaa Farms is on the northern tip of the Golan Heights region controlled by Israel. An attack in this region would likely drive due west towards the Med, cutting thru Hezbollah rear areas and even threatening higher level HQ in the northern Bekaa Valley. This would be combined by an Israeli assault northward from the current border region, catching the bulk of the Hezbollah forces in the middle being forced to fight in two directions.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Israeli security forces conducted numerous raids overnight at multiple locations across the West Bank. Security forces arrested 22 Palestinians, including 4 women, in the West Bank since yesterday
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
The Islamic Resistance in Iraq claims it targeted “a vital target” in the “occupied territories” with “appropriate weapons,” referring to a drone that hit the port area of Eilat overnight. The IDF says an “aerial target” crashed in Eilat causing light damage; no injuries.
The drone originated from Iraq, passed through Jordan, and was not intercepted. The building that the drone hit was near a Saar 6 Israeli warship docked at the port.
According to Al-Mayadeen, on March 31, “the Islamic Resistance in Iraq [also] announced that it had struck a military target of the Israeli occupation in the occupied Syrian Golan, with drones.
There are growing concerns that Iran is trying to pivot and prepare another front directly against Israel using drone equipped militias.
——— FORECAST ————————-
Israel continues to liquidate Hamas. Now looking at Rafah as the final act of the Gaza saga. Israel also continues to take out key Hezbollah leaders and sites in preparation for the eventual assault on southern Lebanon.
The “Islamic Resistance” is worth watching to see if they are shifting their actions in Iraq to target Israel in a larger way.
Turkey –
Erdogan concedes defeat for his party in mayoral elections. Erdogan lost the municipalities in cities where 80% of Turkey’s economy is based today. Even though his rival is not anti-Islamic, they support secularism, which is the complete opposite of Erdogan’s party. First time in 20 years secular parties have achieved this level of success.
OBSERVATION - Turkey for many years was considered ‘secular’ although it had a moslem majority citizenry. The rise of radical islam spilled over an allowed Erdogan to rise to power, generating his vision of a new Caliphate under his control. His goals using islamic codes also drove the country into economic chaos, destroying a lucrative trade relationship with Israel and becoming a pariah to much of the west. This has only gotten even worse in the post wuhan world.
The political fight when the next national election comes around could see Erdogan being ousted, but the contest will be brutal.