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Democrat national holiday today

Don’t jump at all ‘news’ articles today.

Quick note on some of the additional warnings I’ve been placing on various subject areas. You will see the alert status and the date issued / reviewed.

“Heightened THREAT” is a level where the potential for bad is there, but there are no defined action indicators of an even being imminent.

“Moderate” Situations where there are definite indicators or warnings of an serious actions or events.

“HIGH” - Imminent actions or ongoing situations of a critical nature

“War Warning” - Situations and statements that could be portents of a war.

I try to be conservative in what I label. In some views just about every thing should be holding in the moderate or high category. That just swamps the system from identifying / alerting to other more pressing dangers. Still kind of a work in progress.

CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT

The DOJ is ordering Google to release the names and addresses of YouTube viewers who watched specific videos. (Fox)

OBSERVATION - Some are believing this to be linked to the recent visitations by the FBI to various folks and their posts on social media.

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Pro-hamas et al claim the establishment of an “Autonomous Zone for Palestine” in Manhattan, NYC. It is based loosely on the CHAZ concept seen in Seattle in 2020.

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Pro-hamas and even Transtifias show up to disturb Christian Services marking the Resurrection of Jesus. Scattered vandalism noted.

Terrorism - Heightened THREAT Mar 30 2024

Ramadan thru about April 8.

This warning UPDATED as of March 30, 2024

ELEVATED RISK - Potential military action against Iranian assets for the attack that killed US forces in Jordan could result in Iranian terror groups here in the US to activate and conduct terror ops here. These attacks can range from infrastructure destruction (water, power, communications, etc) to mass casualty events or attacks on political candidates - heavily leaning against current administration but also Trump as well. So far the govt hasn’t come out with any warnings but the risk has increased significantly the last 24 hours, based on common sense and stated goals of the Islamist movement/Iran.

***

The official ISIS spokesman has released a statement calling for “lone wolf” supporters to start carrying out attacks in US, Europe and Israel against “Jews and Christians”

***
Listing this here for now -
A Chinese national who entered the U.S. illegally was arrested after sneaking onto a Marine Corps base in California and refusing to leave, U.S. Customs and Border Protection confirmed. Border Patrol agents confirmed to a local news outlet that the Chinese national was arrested Wednesday after entering onto the Marine Corps base in Twentynine Palms. “His purpose & intent behind his actions are still being investigated,” Border Patrol Chief Patrol Agent Gregory K. Bovino posted on X.
According to the Daily Mail, there have been over 100 instances of Chinese nationals infiltrating military bases in the U.S. over the past few years. This includes over 100 that have illegally gone to Guam over the past couple years.

OBSERVATION - The threat from Chinese agents against US infrastructure continues to grow and the latest are pretty aggressive actions.

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

US Army Corps of Engineers has mobilized three massive cranes to begin the removal of debris at the Baltimore harbor from the collapse of the Francis Scott Key bridge. The first sections were remove yesterday.

Two of the many Navy ‘fast transport’ cargo ships are trapped in the harbor.

Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –

Study of the latest “excess death” reports from the CDC indicate that since the start of the jab in Nov 2021, there were 1,069,943 excess deaths were recorded among people aged over 65 from the first time they were offered the COVID-19 vaccine to week 1 of 2024.
NOTE- this is nearly the number of deaths ‘ATTRIBUTED’ to wuhan (remember, they count it as wuhan if detected but death by other cause).

Biden / Harris Watch –

Biden et al was hammered over the weekend over the exclusion of any ‘religion’ symbols’ for Easter art and even more so for recognizing “Transgender Visibility Day” over that of Easter. Where politics and religion are crossing, biden continues to display total disregard for the vast number of Christians in this country - regardless of his claims to be a ‘uniter’.

Illegal Immigration –

A magistrate judge in El Paso has ordered Texas to release illegals arrested for their violent entry into the country last week.

Russia -

WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Mar 21, 2024.

Russia has taken advantage of Ukrainian ammo shortages, forcing them into primary defensive operations, and has seized the initiative following the fall of Avdiivka. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. The attacks are scattered along the front, concentrating on five axises of attack -

- Avdiivka,
- Maryinka,
- Robotyne,
- Kremenka and
- Bakhmut.

Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.

With the exception of Avdiivka, initial Russia attacks along the other axises have had poor results and exceptionally heavy losses. Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with. In some cases, over 70% of these newer tanks have been destroyed or captured by Ukraine.

In these other attacks, Russia continues to make poor use of fire and maneuver, preferring tank/armor ‘charges’ across open areas and down roads. This brings them into prepared kill zones where these forces are stopped and destroyed.

The most significant change in Russian tactics is on the Avdiivka front, where Russian is doing a much better job of launching what one could consider combined arms attacks.

When Ukraine lacks the artillery, Russian forces are able to penetrate in mass and overwhelm the fewer Ukrainian defenders.

Russian organization and capabilities make it unlikely that they will be able to quickly take advantage of penetrations into Ukrainian defenses. Poor training and lack of leadership at all levels, combined with poor logistic trains, will prevent any major breakouts beyond initial penetration of lines.

Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage. Russia is relying heavily on N Korean artillery rounds and Iranian drone/missiles.

Russian appears to be continuing to shepherd its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2022./23 This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage. Ammo shortages are starting to impact Ukraine ADA defenses.

The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. Ukraine continues to engage and destroy Russian naval vessels..

While the Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine, early in this winter/spring offensive, Russian has more aggressively conducted CAS in support of ground troops, reflecting ADA shortages. As a result, Russia has been able to locally seize air superiority at key locations along the front - the first time in two years of fighting. This has been at a cost, with a number Su-34/35 aircraft being lost in the last part of February alone as well as critical A50 AWAC systems.

Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.

Unknowns at this time are how soon ammo supples will start hitting Ukrainian units. Long range ATACMS and German Taurus cruise missiles may be coming on line soon for Ukraine as well as F-16s (now reportedly due in late spring/early summer). But the most critical item is artillery ammo.

*****

Russia: Fish processing plant burned down in Khimki, Moscow. Arson suspected - most of the employees are migrants from Tajikistan, the exact demographic facing repressions and mass arrests from the Kremlin

Russia is demanding that Ukraine hand over all people connected with terrorist acts committed in Russia, including the head of the country’s SBU Security Service, the foreign ministry said on Sunday.

“The Russian side demands that the Kyiv regime immediately cease all support for terrorist activity, extradite guilty parties and compensate the victims for damages,” the ministry statement said.
“Ukraine’s violation of its obligations under anti-terrorist conventions will result in it being held to account in international legal terms.”

Russian Personnel Issues –-

Russia is reportedly recruiting about 30,000 military personnel every month to participate in the war. This rapid mobilization pace enables Russia to sustain heavy losses while continuing attacks that deplete the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

Putin’s signed a decree for the spring conscription, calling up 150,000 citizens for a years statutory military service.
NOTE - This appears to be the routine annual call up of conscripts and nothing in addition.

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 30-60 range with some local highs into the 70s. No significant precipitation in the forecast.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Saturday night - Ukrainian air defense shot down 9 of 11 Shahed drones and 9 of 14 Kh-101 cruise missiles

Russian aviation launching guided bombs towards Kharkiv region.

Ukrainian forces appear to have repelled a Russian battalion-sized mechanized assault near Avdiivka, Donetsk Oblast, on March 30 — the first battalion-sized mechanized assault since Russian forces began the campaign to seize Avdiivka in late October 2023.

The assault occurred near the village of Tonenke in the Avdiivka sector. The Russians used a significant amount of heavy equipment: 36 tanks, 12 BMP.
Ukraine destroyed 12 tanks and 8 BMP out of that assault force, forcing the remainder to retreat.

Bakhmut -

Russian forces attempting to push towards Chasiv Yar, west of Bakhmut.

Outlook —

The extent that Ukraine - a country without a navy - has devastated and neutralized the Black Sea Fleet is amazing. Some statistics I came up illustrate that clearly

Kalibr launches before Ukraine’s Black Sea Fleet Strikes:

January 2023 - 40 launched
February 2023 -32 launched
March-April 2023 - 18 launched
May 2023 - 29 launched
June 2023 - 20 launched
July 2023 - 55 launched
August 2024 - 32 launched
September 2023 - 14 launched

Ukraine’s strikes on the Russian Black Sea Fleet Headquarters in Sevastopol and strikes on two Russian ships in Sevastopol at the middle to end of September

October 2023 - 0 launched
November 2023 - 0 launched
December 2023 - 0 launched
January 2024 - 3 launched
February 2024 - 5 launched
March 2024 - 0 launched

In fact, reports now indicate that remaining Russian naval vessels have departed ports in Crimea for ports farther to the east in Russia. This accounts for the shift in Russian ‘deep strike’ attacks being mostly done by strategic bombers/cruise missiles and Iranian drones - easier to take down by ADA. The Kaliber missile is much harder to take down.

The battalion sized assault in the Avdivvka sector illustrates that Russia is placing a priority on the offensive there. I haven’t reviewed videos of the attack yet, but given the losses I suspect that it is another one of the Russians running into the open, single file and going straight into a kill zone. No real fire and maneuver to speak of to cover the assault.

Moldova/Transnistria -

Reports that Russian missiles once again violated Moldovan airspace in attacking Ukraine over the weekend.

ISRAEL –

Dates to remember -
Ramadan March 11 - April 8

Key overnight developments -

- IDF officially pulling out of the Shifa Hospital complex

- Israel believes only 60-70 hostages are still alive.

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.

***
Israel’s official count for the number of people still being held hostage in the Gaza Strip remains at 134 mostly Israeli citizens as well as some foreigners, which includes possibly deceased victims. Amid stalled truce negotiations in Qatar, the Israeli newspaper Haaretz has revealed that Israeli officials believe only 60 to 70 Israeli hostages in Gaza are still alive.

***
Leftists protested in Tel Aviv Sunday demanding more efforts to free hostages and generally oppose Netanyahu.

——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-

Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said Sunday that senior Hamas operatives captured by troops in the Gaza Strip have told interrogators “the group is collapsing from within.” “In the last week or two, hundreds of terrorists have been captured and what they say about what happened to them tells the whole story. They say that Hamas is collapsing from within, the price they are paying is very heavy,” Gallant said following an assessment at the 98th Division’s headquarters.

OBSERVATION - While one should note that there is a lot of propaganda wrapped up in this statement, the fundamentals appear to be on track.

***
Operations in the Shifa Hospital complex are reportedly winding down and Israeli forces are pulling out. This follows a two week plus battle with approximately 1000 hamas terrorists who set up shop in the hospital, apparently thinking it was now ‘safe’ to do so since the initial Israeli action clearing the hospital and ground.

The Nahal Brigade’s reconnaissance unit found weapons, including mortars, explosive devices, sniper rifles, assault rifles, handguns and other military equipment hidden inside patient pillows and beds, and in the dropped ceilings and walls of the building, according to the IDF.
The reconnaissance unit also encountered and killed senior Hamas operatives Fadi Dweik and Zakaria Najib during a chase and exchange of fire in the maternity ward last week.

During the operation, about 350 patients and medical staff at Shifa Hospital were evacuated by the IDF to a “designated compound” in another part of the complex, where the military has provided them with humanitarian aid and supplies.

***
In general, over the weekend Israeli operations were conducted against Hamas forces conducted clearing operations in and around al Shifa Hospital in Gaza City.

Central Gaza: The IDF said that its Air Force conducted a drone strike targeting a PIJ command-and-control center in the al Aqsa Hospital complex in Deir al Balah.

Southern Gaza: Israeli forces continued to conduct clearing operations in Khan Younis.

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

IAF and artillery continue to conduct strikes throughout S Lebanon.

The Israeli army announces the bombing of about 10 Hezbollah sites in Rashaya Al-Fakhar, southern Lebanon

The Israeli Air Force struck and killed Hezbollah’s Deputy commander of its Rocket and Missile Unit on Friday in an airstrike in Southern Lebanon, the Israeli military announced.
“Ali was considered to be a significant source of knowledge in the terrorist organization and leader in the field of rockets. He was also one of the leaders for heavy-warhead rocket fire and responsible for conducting and planning attacks against Israeli civilians,” the Israel Defense Forces said in a statement.

***
Unconfirmed reports from Syrian and Hezbollah Sources are claiming that the Israeli Defense Force have begun to remove several minefields in the Northern Golan Heights, (Shebaa Farms area) in a possible attempt to avoid a direct offensive against Hezbollah into Southern Lebanon and instead bypass it towards the central parts of the country.

OBSERVATION - Indicator of an impending attack. If one looks at the map of the region, the Shebaa Farms is on the northern tip of the Golan Heights region controlled by Israel. An attack in this region would likely drive due west towards the Med, cutting thru Hezbollah rear areas and even threatening higher level HQ in the northern Bekaa Valley. This would be combined by an Israeli assault northward from the current border region, catching the bulk of the Hezbollah forces in the middle being forced to fight in two directions.

———WEST BANK——————————-

Israeli security forces conducted numerous raids overnight at multiple locations across the West Bank. Security forces arrested 22 Palestinians, including 4 women, in the West Bank since yesterday

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

The Islamic Resistance in Iraq claims it targeted “a vital target” in the “occupied territories” with “appropriate weapons,” referring to a drone that hit the port area of Eilat overnight. The IDF says an “aerial target” crashed in Eilat causing light damage; no injuries.

The drone originated from Iraq, passed through Jordan, and was not intercepted. The building that the drone hit was near a Saar 6 Israeli warship docked at the port.

According to Al-Mayadeen, on March 31, “the Islamic Resistance in Iraq [also] announced that it had struck a military target of the Israeli occupation in the occupied Syrian Golan, with drones.

There are growing concerns that Iran is trying to pivot and prepare another front directly against Israel using drone equipped militias.

——— FORECAST ————————-

Israel continues to liquidate Hamas. Now looking at Rafah as the final act of the Gaza saga. Israel also continues to take out key Hezbollah leaders and sites in preparation for the eventual assault on southern Lebanon.

The “Islamic Resistance” is worth watching to see if they are shifting their actions in Iraq to target Israel in a larger way.

Turkey –

Erdogan concedes defeat for his party in mayoral elections. Erdogan lost the municipalities in cities where 80% of Turkey’s economy is based today. Even though his rival is not anti-Islamic, they support secularism, which is the complete opposite of Erdogan’s party. First time in 20 years secular parties have achieved this level of success.

OBSERVATION - Turkey for many years was considered ‘secular’ although it had a moslem majority citizenry. The rise of radical islam spilled over an allowed Erdogan to rise to power, generating his vision of a new Caliphate under his control. His goals using islamic codes also drove the country into economic chaos, destroying a lucrative trade relationship with Israel and becoming a pariah to much of the west. This has only gotten even worse in the post wuhan world.

The political fight when the next national election comes around could see Erdogan being ousted, but the contest will be brutal.

" Pro-hamas et al claim the establishment of an “Autonomous Zone for Palestine” in Manhattan, NYC.
It is based loosely on the CHAZ concept seen in Seattle in 2020."

I believe this is the initial stage, to see if it flys and get ccepted, for the Islamic "NO GO Zone" like those that exist in France.
Once promoted, established and recognized, it is difficult to de-construct without personal violence.
Such discriminatory practices should not be tolerated, otherwise the concept will flourish in other areas where Islamic concentrations exist.

There are growing concerns that Iran is trying to pivot and prepare another front directly against Israel using drone equipped militias.

——— FORECAST ————————-

Israel continues to liquidate Hamas. Now looking at Rafah as the final act of the Gaza saga. Israel also continues to take out key Hezbollah leaders and sites in preparation for the eventual assault on southern Lebanon. The “Islamic Resistance” is worth watching to see if they are shifting their actions in Iraq to target Israel in a larger way.

Southern Lebanon? Interesting...

Wow, global dynamics changed suddenly yesterday with the liquidation of 5 - 7 Iranian generals and much of their staff in an Israeli airstrike hitting a building in the Iranian embassy compound in Damascus.

We could be involved in a regional war very quickly. Read on.

Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of APR 2, 2024

Ramadan thru about April 8.

Iran has stated US involvement in yesterday’s Israeli air strike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus. This big hit took out a lot of key IRGC top leaders - the ones Iran would look to in order to manage any Hezbollah war with Israel. Technically, hitting the diplomatic compound constitutes an attack on sovereign territory as well. Iran in the past has launched attacks against US interests globally in response to Israeli strikes. In that Zahedi is the replacement for Suleimani, who was taken out by a US airstrike, this action likely crossed many red lines for Iran.

Retaliation may come in many forms. Physical attacks on US interests globally, concentrated in Europe and Syria/Iraq. Cyber attacks increased probability.
In the US, Iranian terror groups may be activated and conduct terror ops here. Pro-hamas protest supporters may try to utilize this to increase hatred for Jewish interests in the US.

NOTE - there have been no formal terrorism threat alerts from any of the alphabet agencies in Washington. However, events are breaking fast and one may be soon to come.

Economy-

The divergence between headline GDP and gross domestic income (GDI) is staggering. While GDP suggests a strong economy, GDI reveals a stagnant economy. Both measures used to follow a similar pattern, but this changed drastically in 2023. While GDP rose 2.5 percent in 2023, GDI only bounced 0.5 percent, effectively signaling economic stagnation.

According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), real GDI increased only 0.5 percent in 2023, compared with an increase of 2.1 percent in 2022. If we use the average of real GDP and real GDI, it increased only 1.5 percent in 2023, compared with an increase of 2.0 percent in 2022. This isn’t a recession, but certainly indicates a weak economy.

The unemployment figures show weakness as well. Real wage growth in the past four years has been negligible, at 0.7 percent per year, four times weaker than the previous four years. Furthermore, the labor force-participation rate remains below the pre-pandemic level at 62.5 percent, the same as the employment-population ratio at 60.1 percent. Poor real average hourly earnings combined with a decrease of 0.6 percent in the average workweek resulted in an uninspiring 0.5 percent increase in real average weekly earnings in the year to February 2024.

https://www.theepochtimes.com/business/gross-domestic-income-shows-america-is-in-stagnation-5619336?utm_source=partner&utm_campaign=BonginoReport&src_src=partner&src_cmp=BonginoReport

OBSERVATION - Bottom line is that the touted golden ‘bidenomics’ is not as golden as presented. Considering that many of today’s numbers are cooked, the realities of the economy are still being felt in the pocket book - and those realities are not good at all.

***
California’s $20 minimum wage for fast food workers became law Monday and quickly caused chaos, with pizza chains preparing to cut hundreds of employees, ice cream and pretzel shop franchisees struggling to learn if the law applies to them, and industry leaders eyeing price hikes in the state.

OBSERVATION - Laws by those who’ve never created a real job. The golden goose that was kalifornia is dying under the leftists.

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

The USS Dwight D Eisenhower and elements of the carrier strike group have been extended in CENTCOM according to three defense officials. They’ve been underway since Oct 14 and for months have served under a crushing operational tempo in the Red Sea.

NOTE - this is the only CSG in the region at this time.

Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –

Texas has reported a human case of H5N1 bird flu. Cow version transmitted to humans

OBSERVATION - This was the concern I mentioned in an earlier post. Medical community now assessing how dangerous of a threat this poses to humans.

POLITICAL FRONT –

July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL

***

Folks, all kinds of law fare in progress by leftists and activist judges and Trump. At this stage it appears Trump has the upper hand. But at this time those lawsuits have to develop further.

Biden / Harris Watch –

Biden denies declaring proclamation calling Easter Sunday “Transgender Visibility Day.”
Who is running the White House?

Illegal Immigration –

A migrant caravan is making its way from southern Mexico to the Texas border. It is expected to arrive in the El Paso area in a few days.

There are about 2,000 people in the caravan. One video reported that there were 3,000 marching in the caravan.

OBSERVATION - Word travels fast. They have found a favorable magistrate judge there that will side with them in their invasion.

China –

Analysts anticipate significant Chinese military activity around Taiwan in April & May.

China launched at least 18x separate military drills in March, violated Taiwan’s air defense zone 139x, & dispatched 200+ warships around the island.

After a relatively slow start to the year, Chinese violations of Taiwan’s air defense ID zone have risen to levels not seen since the last round of large exercises in September & October 2023.

Cross-strait conditions for a Chinese attack in Taiwan present themselves in April, May, and August (plus or minus a couple weeks).

OBSERVATION - Assessment still continues to indicate that China’s preferred method of action against Taiwan at this time is a blockade of some form. No indicators popping of of any amphibious operation being put together to get troops on the ground.

North/South Korea –

North Korea has fired a suspected intermediate-range ballistic missile into the sea off its east coast.

South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff said that it detected the launch from the area of the North Korean capital Pyongyang on Tuesday at 6.53am (21:53 GMT on Monday).

The launch was the third of a ballistic missile in 2024, with North Korea saying it is testing a new intermediate-range hypersonic missile powered by a solid-fuel engine.