Wow, global dynamics changed suddenly yesterday with the liquidation of 5 - 7 Iranian generals and much of their staff in an Israeli airstrike hitting a building in the Iranian embassy compound in Damascus.
We could be involved in a regional war very quickly. Read on.
Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of APR 2, 2024
Ramadan thru about April 8.
Iran has stated US involvement in yesterday’s Israeli air strike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus. This big hit took out a lot of key IRGC top leaders - the ones Iran would look to in order to manage any Hezbollah war with Israel. Technically, hitting the diplomatic compound constitutes an attack on sovereign territory as well. Iran in the past has launched attacks against US interests globally in response to Israeli strikes. In that Zahedi is the replacement for Suleimani, who was taken out by a US airstrike, this action likely crossed many red lines for Iran.
Retaliation may come in many forms. Physical attacks on US interests globally, concentrated in Europe and Syria/Iraq. Cyber attacks increased probability.
In the US, Iranian terror groups may be activated and conduct terror ops here. Pro-hamas protest supporters may try to utilize this to increase hatred for Jewish interests in the US.
NOTE - there have been no formal terrorism threat alerts from any of the alphabet agencies in Washington. However, events are breaking fast and one may be soon to come.
Economy-
The divergence between headline GDP and gross domestic income (GDI) is staggering. While GDP suggests a strong economy, GDI reveals a stagnant economy. Both measures used to follow a similar pattern, but this changed drastically in 2023. While GDP rose 2.5 percent in 2023, GDI only bounced 0.5 percent, effectively signaling economic stagnation.
According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), real GDI increased only 0.5 percent in 2023, compared with an increase of 2.1 percent in 2022. If we use the average of real GDP and real GDI, it increased only 1.5 percent in 2023, compared with an increase of 2.0 percent in 2022. This isn’t a recession, but certainly indicates a weak economy.
The unemployment figures show weakness as well. Real wage growth in the past four years has been negligible, at 0.7 percent per year, four times weaker than the previous four years. Furthermore, the labor force-participation rate remains below the pre-pandemic level at 62.5 percent, the same as the employment-population ratio at 60.1 percent. Poor real average hourly earnings combined with a decrease of 0.6 percent in the average workweek resulted in an uninspiring 0.5 percent increase in real average weekly earnings in the year to February 2024.
OBSERVATION - Bottom line is that the touted golden ‘bidenomics’ is not as golden as presented. Considering that many of today’s numbers are cooked, the realities of the economy are still being felt in the pocket book - and those realities are not good at all.
***
California’s $20 minimum wage for fast food workers became law Monday and quickly caused chaos, with pizza chains preparing to cut hundreds of employees, ice cream and pretzel shop franchisees struggling to learn if the law applies to them, and industry leaders eyeing price hikes in the state.
OBSERVATION - Laws by those who’ve never created a real job. The golden goose that was kalifornia is dying under the leftists.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The USS Dwight D Eisenhower and elements of the carrier strike group have been extended in CENTCOM according to three defense officials. They’ve been underway since Oct 14 and for months have served under a crushing operational tempo in the Red Sea.
NOTE - this is the only CSG in the region at this time.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –
Texas has reported a human case of H5N1 bird flu. Cow version transmitted to humans
OBSERVATION - This was the concern I mentioned in an earlier post. Medical community now assessing how dangerous of a threat this poses to humans.
POLITICAL FRONT –
July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
Folks, all kinds of law fare in progress by leftists and activist judges and Trump. At this stage it appears Trump has the upper hand. But at this time those lawsuits have to develop further.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Biden denies declaring proclamation calling Easter Sunday “Transgender Visibility Day.”
Who is running the White House?
Illegal Immigration –
A migrant caravan is making its way from southern Mexico to the Texas border. It is expected to arrive in the El Paso area in a few days.
There are about 2,000 people in the caravan. One video reported that there were 3,000 marching in the caravan.
OBSERVATION - Word travels fast. They have found a favorable magistrate judge there that will side with them in their invasion.
China –
Analysts anticipate significant Chinese military activity around Taiwan in April & May.
China launched at least 18x separate military drills in March, violated Taiwan’s air defense zone 139x, & dispatched 200+ warships around the island.
After a relatively slow start to the year, Chinese violations of Taiwan’s air defense ID zone have risen to levels not seen since the last round of large exercises in September & October 2023.
Cross-strait conditions for a Chinese attack in Taiwan present themselves in April, May, and August (plus or minus a couple weeks).
OBSERVATION - Assessment still continues to indicate that China’s preferred method of action against Taiwan at this time is a blockade of some form. No indicators popping of of any amphibious operation being put together to get troops on the ground.
North/South Korea –
North Korea has fired a suspected intermediate-range ballistic missile into the sea off its east coast.
South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff said that it detected the launch from the area of the North Korean capital Pyongyang on Tuesday at 6.53am (21:53 GMT on Monday).
The launch was the third of a ballistic missile in 2024, with North Korea saying it is testing a new intermediate-range hypersonic missile powered by a solid-fuel engine.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Mar 21, 2024.
Russia has taken advantage of Ukrainian ammo shortages, forcing them into primary defensive operations, and has seized the initiative following the fall of Avdiivka. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. The attacks are scattered along the front, concentrating on five axises of attack -
- Avdiivka,
- Maryinka,
- Robotyne,
- Kremenka and
- Bakhmut.
Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.
With the exception of Avdiivka, initial Russia attacks along the other axises have had poor results and exceptionally heavy losses. Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with. In some cases, over 70% of these newer tanks have been destroyed or captured by Ukraine.
In these other attacks, Russia continues to make poor use of fire and maneuver, preferring tank/armor ‘charges’ across open areas and down roads. This brings them into prepared kill zones where these forces are stopped and destroyed.
The most significant change in Russian tactics is on the Avdiivka front, where Russian is doing a much better job of launching what one could consider combined arms attacks.
When Ukraine lacks the artillery, Russian forces are able to penetrate in mass and overwhelm the fewer Ukrainian defenders.
Russian organization and capabilities make it unlikely that they will be able to quickly take advantage of penetrations into Ukrainian defenses. Poor training and lack of leadership at all levels, combined with poor logistic trains, will prevent any major breakouts beyond initial penetration of lines.
Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage. Russia is relying heavily on N Korean artillery rounds and Iranian drone/missiles.
Russian appears to be continuing to shepherd its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2022./23 This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage. Ammo shortages are starting to impact Ukraine ADA defenses.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. Ukraine continues to engage and destroy Russian naval vessels..
While the Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine, early in this winter/spring offensive, Russian has more aggressively conducted CAS in support of ground troops, reflecting ADA shortages. As a result, Russia has been able to locally seize air superiority at key locations along the front - the first time in two years of fighting. This has been at a cost, with a number Su-34/35 aircraft being lost in the last part of February alone as well as critical A50 AWAC systems.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.
Unknowns at this time are how soon ammo supples will start hitting Ukrainian units. Long range ATACMS and German Taurus cruise missiles may be coming on line soon for Ukraine as well as F-16s (now reportedly due in late spring/early summer). But the most critical item is artillery ammo.
*****
There have been widespread reports of mass deportations of Muslim migrants from Russia in the wake of the March 22 terror attack on the Crocus City Hall venue in a Moscow suburb which killed at least 140 people and left hundreds more wounded and injured.
This trend is said to be the result of a significant uptick in raids by authorities on apartments and dorm complexes known to house Central Asian migrants, amid concerns that Islamic radicals could carry out more attacks.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 30-60 range with some local highs into the 70s. No significant precipitation in the forecast.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukraine drones attacked enterprises in Yelabuga and Nizhnekamsk in Tatarstan for the first time. This is more than 1,200 kilometers from the Ukrainian border. Six people were injured. In Yelabuga there is a production of “shaheds”, and in Nizhnekamsk there is a large petrochemical complex. These attacks are the deepest Ukraine has accomplished against Russia.
Russian media report that the drone attack in Nizhnekamsk hit the main oil refinery.
At least 5 wounded in drone strikes at Alabuga special economic zone in Tatarstan, where Shahed drones plant is located.
According to Russian Telegram channels, Russia has not yet restored fuel production after previous attacks on refineries and is now supported by Belarusian supplies. This has already resulted in a sharp rise in prices for diesel and gas in Russia.
Ukrainian air defense shot down 9 of 10 Shahed drones.
Russia has launched large offensives in the Bakhmut and Avdiivka sectors with a considerable number of tanks and armored vehicles. They are sustaining very heavy losses due to Ukrainian ATGMs and drone strikes. However, the shear weight / size of the assaults have been forcing some retreats of Ukrainian forces who are also facing ammo shortages.
Avdiivka -
Russians are claiming to be less than 600m from Chasov Yar and advancing.
Outlook —
Fighting has intensified as noted above. Some believe Russia is pushing the fight because Europe is on the verge of getting munitions and ammo resupply to Ukraine in the very near future - breaking the shortages - and Russia wants to capitalize on the shortages now.
But these renewed assaults are coming at an extremely high cost in men and material to Russia even with Ukraine ammo shortages and some analysts indicate that these assaults may burn out sooner than later due to losses.
Ukraine’s deep game has gotten deeper and the successful strike overnight have thrown another hitch in Russian strategic planners efforts to sustain the war. Another damaged oil refinery and now the Shahed plant hit. This will force Russia to have to make even harder decisions on what to protect with their limited air defense assets.
Europe / NATO General –
France has been organizing a NATO brigade in Romania, another NATO member that shares a border with Ukraine. Currently the French led force in Romania has 1,500 French troops and that will increase to 4,000 in 2025. Equipment will eventually include 50 Leclerc tanks.
ISRAEL –
Dates to remember -
Ramadan March 11 - April 8
Key overnight developments -
- Israel airstrike on a consulate building in the Iranian embassy compound in Damascus has killed at least 6 senior generals/leaders in the IRGC and likely a lot of their staff
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
IDF continued search and destroy operations throughout Gaza while preparing for entry into Rafah.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
IAF and artillery continue to conduct strikes throughout S Lebanon in response to Hezbollah attacks.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
IRGC confirms Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Zahedi, Brigadier General Mohammad Hadi Haji Rahimi & 5 other officers, Hossein Amanollahi, Seyyed Mehdi Jalalati, Mohsen Sedaqat, Ali Agha Babaei & Seyyed Ali Salehi Rouzbahani were killed in the Israeli strike in Damascus
Mohammad Reza Zahedi was the Senior Quds Force Commander and his Deputy, the Commander of IRGC Operations in Syria and Lebanon Mohammad Rahimi
Zahedi is the replacement for Suleimani and by far the most important person in organizing Hezbollah and associated Shi’ite militias in the region. He has been very successful in reorganizing Hezbollah after it was harmed by previous assassinations and the Syrian civil war. This is a blow to Iran since it is hard to find yet another replacement with the skills and contacts Zehadi had.
That is doubly true since his deputy was also killed.
Hossein Amanollahi was the Chief of Staff of IRGC Quds Force in Syria & Lebanon
Iran’s leader says Israel will be punished for its attack on Iranian consulate, adding “We will make them regret committing this crime. ”Iran’s leader (on Israel’s attack on Iranian consulate in Damascus): The evil government will be punished by our brave men. We will make them regret committing this crime and similar ones
Israeli military spokesperson Hagari says building struck by airstrike in Damascus, Syria was IRGC military building and not a consulate or an embassy
———WEST BANK——————————-
Israeli security forces conducted numerous raids overnight at multiple locations across the West Bank.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Reports indicate an attack carried out by militias affiliated with the IRGC and Hezbollah using suicide drones on the Al-Tanf militry base on the border with Jordan, where US troops are stationed. In the past Iran has attacked US assets in Syria and Iraq in retaliation for Israeli actions.
***
Israeli army Spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari says the drone that hit the Eilat naval base overnight was “made in Iran” and the attack was “directed by Iran.” The drone was apparently launched from Iraq by an Iran-backed militia. “This is a very serious incident,” Hagari says
***
CENTCOM forces successfully destroyed an Iranian-backed Houthi terrorist unmanned surface vessel (USV).
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
The Kremlin: The attack on the Iranian embassy in Syria constitutes a violation of international law
——— FORECAST ————————-
Holy moly the last 24 have been dynamic. To strike an embassy compound takes some very big gonads for any country. In this case, Israel must have seen the benefits of eliminating these key IRGC leaders to be worth the intense risks. This is also the ultimate battlefield preparation strike for Israel - as long as Hezbollah continues attacks against Israel, Israel will continue actions like this in preparation for all out war against Hezbollah - likely later this year.
The IRGC is the key link between Iran and Hezbollah/hamas/houthi, providing military aid and leadership in the fight against Israel. The loss of these individuals will severely hamper the fight against Israel on both a tactical, strategic and logistical level.
Iran has few options at this stage -
1 Officially launch attacks from Iran towards Israeli interest and country. This is probably the least likely since it would invite Israeli strategic assets to target Iran proper, and I don’t think Iran is ready for that.
2 Have Hezbollah and other supported regional militias launch full out attacks on Israel. Again, I don’t think Hezbollah is quite ready for that option either. Israel has been doing the death by a thousand cuts operation and I think Hezbollah realizes that they have to rethink their plans - because Israel is not fighting like they have in the past. Israel has the initiative at the moment.
Additionally, the intelligence necessary to have identified this meeting in Damascus suggests that Israel has very good intel efforts in the region. Meaning that Hezbollah command and control will be hammered in the next major fight along with its munitions. Something Hezbollah as been working hard to keep under wraps.
3 Iranian back militias strike US forces in Syria and Iraq. They have been very quiet lately towards these US operations - having their command and logistics hit pretty hard. But such attacks have been a very common response since they avoid the direct conflict with Israel who will not pull their punches like the US has under biden.
One big concern along this line is a very strong effort to target the USS Eisenhower, currently stationed in the Red Sea with a massive drone/missile attack to hopefully overwhelm the carriers air defense screen and get a lucky hit. That ‘success’ may be one that they will take the risks in trying to obtain.
4 Launch unconventional and terrorist strikes globally against Israeli and US interests. An option that buffers Iran to a degree by a less than direct connection to Tehran. This is a high probability option that Iran has utilized in the past.
There are probably more options or combinations out there that I haven’t caught yet. Bottom line is that the Israeli - Hezbollah/Iran conflict has hit a critical junction and is poised to potentially explode into a much more violent regional fight.
Iran – HIGH Warning for supported attacks against Israeli and US interests across the globe. Apr 2, 2024
See Israel above on potential Iranian options.
Iran’s Foreign Minister says a Swiss embassy official was summoned to the Iranian foreign ministry at 00:45 am Tuesday to receive Iran’s “important message to the US” as the “supporter of Israel” following the airstrike on Iran’s consulate in Damascus that killed seven IRGC officers including two top generals.
Khamenei has stated that Washington bears responsibility for the Israeli attack on the consulate in Damascus, whether it knew it or not
The WH has denied any knowledge or involvement in the airstrike.
Misc of Note –
Hurricane season doesn’t start until June 1st—or about two months from today, April 1st. Weather forecasters have already warned that the Atlantic Hurricane season could be super active. This is due to a strengthening La Nina event in the Pacific, replacing the waining El Nino.
“The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is forecast to feature well above the historical average number of tropical storms, hurricanes, major hurricanes and direct US impacts,” AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Forecaster Alex DaSilva said.
DaSilva explained: “Sea-surface temperatures are well above historical average across much of the Atlantic basin, especially across the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean and the Main Development Region [for hurricanes].”
La Nina cycles in the Pacific results in less disruptive winds, known as wind shear, over most of the Atlantic basin, which means tropical systems will form more easily.
OBSERVATION - Folks in hurricane prone regions better get an early start on their preparations. Up dating your evacuation plans, routes (updated hard copy maps - don’t rely on GPS) and who you are staying with are critical. Double check and repack your evacuation/bug out bags with important documents and items, at least 3 days worth of food and water. Keep the gas tank topped off, etc. Also a good time to get redundancy on communications. NOAA weather radios, AM/FM battery powered radios and other coms (ham, gmrs, cb etc). Waiting until the last minute is a recipe for disaster.
BTW - don’t forget to pack up supplies for your pet - have cages/kennels ready.
Good list - still hate hurricane season. Worst part of living in Florida. My backyard ends at a small saltwater stream that connects twp bays.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
After just two days, the Palestinian “CHAZ” at Zuccotti Park in Manhattan was dismantled by the NYPD. Unlike Seattle’s BLM-Antifa CHAZ, nobody was murdered here.
Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of APR 2, 2024
Ramadan thru about April 8.
Iran has stated US involvement in yesterday’s Israeli air strike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus. This big hit took out a lot of key IRGC top leaders - the ones Iran would look to in order to manage any Hezbollah war with Israel. Technically, hitting the diplomatic compound constitutes an attack on sovereign territory as well. Iran in the past has launched attacks against US interests globally in response to Israeli strikes. In that Zahedi is the replacement for Suleimani, who was taken out by a US airstrike, this action likely crossed many red lines for Iran.
Retaliation may come in many forms. Physical attacks on US interests globally, concentrated in Europe and Syria/Iraq. Cyber attacks increased probability.
In the US, Iranian terror groups may be activated and conduct terror ops here. Pro-hamas protest supporters may try to utilize this to increase hatred for Jewish interests in the US.
NOTE - there have been no formal terrorism threat alerts from any of the alphabet agencies in Washington. However, events are breaking fast and one may be soon to come.
***
According to a report from the New York Post, a 27-year-old Somalian man, yet to be identified, was on the terrorist watchlist as “a confirmed member of al Shabaab” and was involved in the trafficking and transportation of explosives and firearms.
Despite this, the terrorist was released after initially being caught by authorities entering the country illegally in California in March of 2023. He was eventually rearrested in Minnesota in January.
GOP lawmakers are now demanding answers about the mishap. In a letter obtained by the Post, the lawmakers wrote, “Did the al-Shabbab terrorist travel to Minnesota with the assistance, either direct or indirect of an [Non-Governmental Organization]? If so, which NGO was responsible for transporting the individual to Minnesota?”
OBSERVATION - By all metrics, there are likely thousands and thousands more roaming around out there like this one.
Economy-
The largest egg producer in the United States said Tuesday that it temporarily ceased operations at one of its Texas facilities after detecting bird flu in chickens — the latest in a steady uptick of cases among U.S. farm animals in recent weeks.
Cal-Maine Foods said it culled about 1.6 million hens and 337,000 pullets (young hens) after some of its chickens at a Parmer County, Texas, facility tested positive for highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), caused by influenza A viruses that spread widely among wild and domestic birds.
The culled chickens at Cal-Maine Foods represent 3.6 percent of its flock as of March 2.
Human symptoms of bird flu include eye redness, fever, coughing, sore throat, muscle or body aches, headaches, fatigue, shortness of breath or difficulty breathing. Diarrhea, nausea, vomiting or seizures are less common, the CDC said.
https://www.americanpartisan.org/2024/04/largest-u-s-egg-producer-detects-bird-flu-at-texas-plant/
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The U.S. Army Publishing Directorate released the ALARACT 017/2024, titled, “Utilization of the Army Retiree Recall Program.”
The document cites Executive Order 13223 from the Bush administration in 2001.
A retiree recall is a “retired Soldier who is ordered to active duty (AD) from the Retired Reserve or the retired list under 10 USC 688/688a, 12301(a), or 12301(d). Per AR 601-10, Recalled retiree Soldiers must be aligned to a valid vacant AC requirement that matches the grade and skill of the retiree before he or she may be recalled to AD,” according to the document. “The retiree population will be utilized as a last resort to fill Active Component vacant requirements.”
OBSERVATION - Incorrect reports are saying this is an involuntary call up. The reality is the military is seeking voluntary returns (at this time). However, the sudden emphasis of the ALARACT is highlighting the significant personnel shortfalls of the active service.
Illegal Immigration –
Texas NG is massively fencing the section of the border in the El Paso TX region.
China –
Following the massive 7.4 quake of yesterday, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, $TSM, evacuated factory areas, endangering production at the world’s largest maker of advanced chips, per Bloomberg.
***
30 Chinese aircraft and 8 naval vessels were reportedly in the Taiwan ADZ following the quake. This number is within the range of incursions for the past several months and is unlikely a response to the quake.
Phillipines –
The U.S. and Philippine Air Forces are slated to conduct their first combat training exercise of the year this month, escalating tensions between Manila and Beijing in the South China Sea. Scheduled from April 8-19, Cope Thunder will feature fighters from both countries operating from a newly renovated runway at Basa Air Base.
Cope Thunder was held for the first time in more than 30 years in 2023—the annual exercise ran from Clark Air Base in the Philippines starting in the mid-1970s but was suspended following the 1991 volcanic eruption of Mount Pinatubo, which led to Clark’s closure. Last year, two iterations of Cope Thunder in May and June included U.S. F-16s and F-22s, as well as the Philippines Air Force’s FA-50PHs, A-29s, and AS-211s at Basa and Clark.
https://www.airandspaceforces.com/usaf-philippines-cope-thunder-fighter-exercise/
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Mar 21, 2024.
Russia has taken advantage of Ukrainian ammo shortages, forcing them into primary defensive operations, and has seized the initiative following the fall of Avdiivka. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. The attacks are scattered along the front, concentrating on five axises of attack -
- Avdiivka,
- Maryinka,
- Robotyne,
- Kremenka and
- Bakhmut.
Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.
With the exception of Avdiivka, initial Russia attacks along the other axises have had poor results and exceptionally heavy losses. Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with. In some cases, over 70% of these newer tanks have been destroyed or captured by Ukraine.
In these other attacks, Russia continues to make poor use of fire and maneuver, preferring tank/armor ‘charges’ across open areas and down roads. This brings them into prepared kill zones where these forces are stopped and destroyed.
The most significant change in Russian tactics is on the Avdiivka front, where Russian is doing a much better job of launching what one could consider combined arms attacks.
When Ukraine lacks the artillery, Russian forces are able to penetrate in mass and overwhelm the fewer Ukrainian defenders.
Russian organization and capabilities make it unlikely that they will be able to quickly take advantage of penetrations into Ukrainian defenses. Poor training and lack of leadership at all levels, combined with poor logistic trains, will prevent any major breakouts beyond initial penetration of lines.
Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage. Russia is relying heavily on N Korean artillery rounds and Iranian drone/missiles.
Russian appears to be continuing to shepherd its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2022./23 This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage. Ammo shortages are starting to impact Ukraine ADA defenses.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. Ukraine continues to engage and destroy Russian naval vessels..
While the Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine, early in this winter/spring offensive, Russian has more aggressively conducted CAS in support of ground troops, reflecting ADA shortages. As a result, Russia has been able to locally seize air superiority at key locations along the front - the first time in two years of fighting. This has been at a cost, with a number Su-34/35 aircraft being lost in the last part of February alone as well as critical A50 AWAC systems.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.
Unknowns at this time are how soon ammo supples will start hitting Ukrainian units. Long range ATACMS and German Taurus cruise missiles may be coming on line soon for Ukraine as well as F-16s (now reportedly due in late spring/early summer). But the most critical item is artillery ammo.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 30-70 range with some local highs into the 70s. No significant precipitation in the forecast.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Slow period, still a lot of fighting in the Avdivvka and Bakhmut sectors.
Ukraine drone strike has resulted in a massive fire in Kursk , probably a military base with munitions or oil/gas infrastructure.
Outlook —
Expect continued Russian pressure on the Avdiivka and Bakhmut sectors along with doses of deep strikes by both Russia and Ukraine.
ISRAEL –
Dates to remember -
Ramadan March 11 - April 8
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
***
An inadvertent air strike on World Central Kitchen workers that were entering a war zone has created a whirlwind of anger towards Israel .
***
Palestinian Authority is requesting the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) to vote on its membership status again. To achieve full membership, Palestine needs nine out of 15 votes with no permanent member vetoes.
U.N. observers say this motion is likely to pass, forcing a two state solution on the region.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
IDF continued search and destroy operations throughout Gaza while preparing for entry into Rafah.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
IAF and artillery continue to conduct strikes throughout S Lebanon in response to Hezbollah attacks.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Israel was on alert Wednesday for retaliatory strikes by Iran and its proxies for the attack widely attributed to Israel that demolished Iran’s consulate in the Syrian capital of Damascus and killed seven, including two Iranian generals.
Iran’s UN envoy Zahra Ershadi told the Security Council briefing on Israel’s strike against Iran’s consulate in Damascus, “Iran has exercised considerable restraint, but it’s imperative to acknowledge that there are limits to such forbearance. The occupying regime (of Israel) must bear full responsibility for its consequences. Iran reserves its legitimate and inherent right under international law and the United Nations Charter to take a decisive response to such reprehensible acts.”
Considerable amount of RUMINT on developing Iranian response(s). Many of them seem to center on two responses.
1 Drone/cruise missile/ballistic missile strikes on Israel proper originating from Iran proper (as well as militia elements in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Houthis
2 Attacks on Israeli embassies across the globe.
Many indicate attacks due within the next 48 hours. As noted above, Israel is at a high state of alert.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Israeli security forces conducted numerous raids overnight at multiple locations across the West Bank.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Russia’s UN envoy told the Security Council’s briefing on the Israeli airstrike on Iran’s Damascus consulate, “We consider any attacks on diplomatic and consular premises the inviolability of which is guaranteed by the relevant Vienna Conventions of 1961 and 1963 to be categorically unacceptable. This is not the first attack carried out by Israel in densely populated areas of Damascus, which generated high risks of mass casualties of civilians. Such aggressive actions by Israel are designed to further fuel the conflict. They’re absolutely unacceptable and must stop. We urge West Jerusalem to abandon the practice of provocative acts against Syria and other areas.”
Turkish Foreign Ministry: Türkiye condemns the Israeli attack on the Iranian embassy complex in Damascus and fears that it will lead to a regional conflict
——— FORECAST ————————-
All eyes are looking at what the Iranian response will be to yesterday’s strike that took out high level and critical generals and the sort in the Damascus strike. Of the two options being RUMINTed about the most dangerous is a direct strike on Israel proper. That would open up Iran proper to Israeli counter strikes. IMHO of the rumblings out there, directed attacks on Israeli embassies would be the most likely and would make it harder for Israel to justify striking Iran.
Maintaining concerns that Iran may instead target US assets in the region - the biggest of which is the Eisenhower, currently sitting in the Red Sea.
The next 48 could be world changing.
While this drama unfolds, Israel continues to clean out pockets of Hamas and affiliated terror cells in Gaza while preparing for the inevitable assault into Rafah. The hit on IRGC and entry into Rafah may be the triggers for Hezbollah to take a more active role in attacking Israel, rather than the minor skirmishes that have been the standard for the past months.
Iran – HIGH Warning for supported attacks against Israeli and US interests across the globe. Apr 2, 2024
See Israel above for analysis. Clock is ticking and the next 48 hours may be decisive for the region.
Misc of Note –
SMH, more states and municipalities are declaring states of emergency in advance of the April 8 solar eclipse. Still don’t understand what they are seeing beyond crowd/traffic issues.
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Noted hurricane season in yesterday’s post. Equally critical and we are up to our hips in it is a potentially vigorous tornado season. Again, the transition to the La Nina is opening up more aggressive weather patterns to hammer the midwest and south.
Common sense preparations are in order. Have secure emergency shelter with at least several days supply of food, water and medical supplies. ‘Get valuables into the shelter now.
Make sure you have a good weather radio to get the tornado alerts in a timely manner. Along with that pay close attention to weather forecasts. Sources like the Weather channel, Accuraweather, etc are also good sources for coverage.
Finally, if a tornado hits, you will likely be your own FIRST RESPONDER, so be prepared by learning first aid skills, being equipped as well as establishing relationships with your neighbors to pull thru until outside help arrives.