CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
After just two days, the Palestinian “CHAZ” at Zuccotti Park in Manhattan was dismantled by the NYPD. Unlike Seattle’s BLM-Antifa CHAZ, nobody was murdered here.
Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of APR 2, 2024
Ramadan thru about April 8.
Iran has stated US involvement in yesterday’s Israeli air strike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus. This big hit took out a lot of key IRGC top leaders - the ones Iran would look to in order to manage any Hezbollah war with Israel. Technically, hitting the diplomatic compound constitutes an attack on sovereign territory as well. Iran in the past has launched attacks against US interests globally in response to Israeli strikes. In that Zahedi is the replacement for Suleimani, who was taken out by a US airstrike, this action likely crossed many red lines for Iran.
Retaliation may come in many forms. Physical attacks on US interests globally, concentrated in Europe and Syria/Iraq. Cyber attacks increased probability.
In the US, Iranian terror groups may be activated and conduct terror ops here. Pro-hamas protest supporters may try to utilize this to increase hatred for Jewish interests in the US.
NOTE - there have been no formal terrorism threat alerts from any of the alphabet agencies in Washington. However, events are breaking fast and one may be soon to come.
***
According to a report from the New York Post, a 27-year-old Somalian man, yet to be identified, was on the terrorist watchlist as “a confirmed member of al Shabaab” and was involved in the trafficking and transportation of explosives and firearms.
Despite this, the terrorist was released after initially being caught by authorities entering the country illegally in California in March of 2023. He was eventually rearrested in Minnesota in January.
GOP lawmakers are now demanding answers about the mishap. In a letter obtained by the Post, the lawmakers wrote, “Did the al-Shabbab terrorist travel to Minnesota with the assistance, either direct or indirect of an [Non-Governmental Organization]? If so, which NGO was responsible for transporting the individual to Minnesota?”
OBSERVATION - By all metrics, there are likely thousands and thousands more roaming around out there like this one.
Economy-
The largest egg producer in the United States said Tuesday that it temporarily ceased operations at one of its Texas facilities after detecting bird flu in chickens — the latest in a steady uptick of cases among U.S. farm animals in recent weeks.
Cal-Maine Foods said it culled about 1.6 million hens and 337,000 pullets (young hens) after some of its chickens at a Parmer County, Texas, facility tested positive for highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), caused by influenza A viruses that spread widely among wild and domestic birds.
The culled chickens at Cal-Maine Foods represent 3.6 percent of its flock as of March 2.
Human symptoms of bird flu include eye redness, fever, coughing, sore throat, muscle or body aches, headaches, fatigue, shortness of breath or difficulty breathing. Diarrhea, nausea, vomiting or seizures are less common, the CDC said.
https://www.americanpartisan.org/2024/04/largest-u-s-egg-producer-detects-bird-flu-at-texas-plant/
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The U.S. Army Publishing Directorate released the ALARACT 017/2024, titled, “Utilization of the Army Retiree Recall Program.”
The document cites Executive Order 13223 from the Bush administration in 2001.
A retiree recall is a “retired Soldier who is ordered to active duty (AD) from the Retired Reserve or the retired list under 10 USC 688/688a, 12301(a), or 12301(d). Per AR 601-10, Recalled retiree Soldiers must be aligned to a valid vacant AC requirement that matches the grade and skill of the retiree before he or she may be recalled to AD,” according to the document. “The retiree population will be utilized as a last resort to fill Active Component vacant requirements.”
OBSERVATION - Incorrect reports are saying this is an involuntary call up. The reality is the military is seeking voluntary returns (at this time). However, the sudden emphasis of the ALARACT is highlighting the significant personnel shortfalls of the active service.
Illegal Immigration –
Texas NG is massively fencing the section of the border in the El Paso TX region.
China –
Following the massive 7.4 quake of yesterday, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, $TSM, evacuated factory areas, endangering production at the world’s largest maker of advanced chips, per Bloomberg.
***
30 Chinese aircraft and 8 naval vessels were reportedly in the Taiwan ADZ following the quake. This number is within the range of incursions for the past several months and is unlikely a response to the quake.
Phillipines –
The U.S. and Philippine Air Forces are slated to conduct their first combat training exercise of the year this month, escalating tensions between Manila and Beijing in the South China Sea. Scheduled from April 8-19, Cope Thunder will feature fighters from both countries operating from a newly renovated runway at Basa Air Base.
Cope Thunder was held for the first time in more than 30 years in 2023—the annual exercise ran from Clark Air Base in the Philippines starting in the mid-1970s but was suspended following the 1991 volcanic eruption of Mount Pinatubo, which led to Clark’s closure. Last year, two iterations of Cope Thunder in May and June included U.S. F-16s and F-22s, as well as the Philippines Air Force’s FA-50PHs, A-29s, and AS-211s at Basa and Clark.
https://www.airandspaceforces.com/usaf-philippines-cope-thunder-fighter-exercise/
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Mar 21, 2024.
Russia has taken advantage of Ukrainian ammo shortages, forcing them into primary defensive operations, and has seized the initiative following the fall of Avdiivka. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. The attacks are scattered along the front, concentrating on five axises of attack -
- Avdiivka,
- Maryinka,
- Robotyne,
- Kremenka and
- Bakhmut.
Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.
With the exception of Avdiivka, initial Russia attacks along the other axises have had poor results and exceptionally heavy losses. Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with. In some cases, over 70% of these newer tanks have been destroyed or captured by Ukraine.
In these other attacks, Russia continues to make poor use of fire and maneuver, preferring tank/armor ‘charges’ across open areas and down roads. This brings them into prepared kill zones where these forces are stopped and destroyed.
The most significant change in Russian tactics is on the Avdiivka front, where Russian is doing a much better job of launching what one could consider combined arms attacks.
When Ukraine lacks the artillery, Russian forces are able to penetrate in mass and overwhelm the fewer Ukrainian defenders.
Russian organization and capabilities make it unlikely that they will be able to quickly take advantage of penetrations into Ukrainian defenses. Poor training and lack of leadership at all levels, combined with poor logistic trains, will prevent any major breakouts beyond initial penetration of lines.
Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage. Russia is relying heavily on N Korean artillery rounds and Iranian drone/missiles.
Russian appears to be continuing to shepherd its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2022./23 This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage. Ammo shortages are starting to impact Ukraine ADA defenses.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. Ukraine continues to engage and destroy Russian naval vessels..
While the Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine, early in this winter/spring offensive, Russian has more aggressively conducted CAS in support of ground troops, reflecting ADA shortages. As a result, Russia has been able to locally seize air superiority at key locations along the front - the first time in two years of fighting. This has been at a cost, with a number Su-34/35 aircraft being lost in the last part of February alone as well as critical A50 AWAC systems.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.
Unknowns at this time are how soon ammo supples will start hitting Ukrainian units. Long range ATACMS and German Taurus cruise missiles may be coming on line soon for Ukraine as well as F-16s (now reportedly due in late spring/early summer). But the most critical item is artillery ammo.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 30-70 range with some local highs into the 70s. No significant precipitation in the forecast.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Slow period, still a lot of fighting in the Avdivvka and Bakhmut sectors.
Ukraine drone strike has resulted in a massive fire in Kursk , probably a military base with munitions or oil/gas infrastructure.
Outlook —
Expect continued Russian pressure on the Avdiivka and Bakhmut sectors along with doses of deep strikes by both Russia and Ukraine.
ISRAEL –
Dates to remember -
Ramadan March 11 - April 8
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
***
An inadvertent air strike on World Central Kitchen workers that were entering a war zone has created a whirlwind of anger towards Israel .
***
Palestinian Authority is requesting the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) to vote on its membership status again. To achieve full membership, Palestine needs nine out of 15 votes with no permanent member vetoes.
U.N. observers say this motion is likely to pass, forcing a two state solution on the region.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
IDF continued search and destroy operations throughout Gaza while preparing for entry into Rafah.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
IAF and artillery continue to conduct strikes throughout S Lebanon in response to Hezbollah attacks.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Israel was on alert Wednesday for retaliatory strikes by Iran and its proxies for the attack widely attributed to Israel that demolished Iran’s consulate in the Syrian capital of Damascus and killed seven, including two Iranian generals.
Iran’s UN envoy Zahra Ershadi told the Security Council briefing on Israel’s strike against Iran’s consulate in Damascus, “Iran has exercised considerable restraint, but it’s imperative to acknowledge that there are limits to such forbearance. The occupying regime (of Israel) must bear full responsibility for its consequences. Iran reserves its legitimate and inherent right under international law and the United Nations Charter to take a decisive response to such reprehensible acts.”
Considerable amount of RUMINT on developing Iranian response(s). Many of them seem to center on two responses.
1 Drone/cruise missile/ballistic missile strikes on Israel proper originating from Iran proper (as well as militia elements in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Houthis
2 Attacks on Israeli embassies across the globe.
Many indicate attacks due within the next 48 hours. As noted above, Israel is at a high state of alert.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Israeli security forces conducted numerous raids overnight at multiple locations across the West Bank.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Russia’s UN envoy told the Security Council’s briefing on the Israeli airstrike on Iran’s Damascus consulate, “We consider any attacks on diplomatic and consular premises the inviolability of which is guaranteed by the relevant Vienna Conventions of 1961 and 1963 to be categorically unacceptable. This is not the first attack carried out by Israel in densely populated areas of Damascus, which generated high risks of mass casualties of civilians. Such aggressive actions by Israel are designed to further fuel the conflict. They’re absolutely unacceptable and must stop. We urge West Jerusalem to abandon the practice of provocative acts against Syria and other areas.”
Turkish Foreign Ministry: Türkiye condemns the Israeli attack on the Iranian embassy complex in Damascus and fears that it will lead to a regional conflict
——— FORECAST ————————-
All eyes are looking at what the Iranian response will be to yesterday’s strike that took out high level and critical generals and the sort in the Damascus strike. Of the two options being RUMINTed about the most dangerous is a direct strike on Israel proper. That would open up Iran proper to Israeli counter strikes. IMHO of the rumblings out there, directed attacks on Israeli embassies would be the most likely and would make it harder for Israel to justify striking Iran.
Maintaining concerns that Iran may instead target US assets in the region - the biggest of which is the Eisenhower, currently sitting in the Red Sea.
The next 48 could be world changing.
While this drama unfolds, Israel continues to clean out pockets of Hamas and affiliated terror cells in Gaza while preparing for the inevitable assault into Rafah. The hit on IRGC and entry into Rafah may be the triggers for Hezbollah to take a more active role in attacking Israel, rather than the minor skirmishes that have been the standard for the past months.
Iran – HIGH Warning for supported attacks against Israeli and US interests across the globe. Apr 2, 2024
See Israel above for analysis. Clock is ticking and the next 48 hours may be decisive for the region.
Misc of Note –
SMH, more states and municipalities are declaring states of emergency in advance of the April 8 solar eclipse. Still don’t understand what they are seeing beyond crowd/traffic issues.
***
Noted hurricane season in yesterday’s post. Equally critical and we are up to our hips in it is a potentially vigorous tornado season. Again, the transition to the La Nina is opening up more aggressive weather patterns to hammer the midwest and south.
Common sense preparations are in order. Have secure emergency shelter with at least several days supply of food, water and medical supplies. ‘Get valuables into the shelter now.
Make sure you have a good weather radio to get the tornado alerts in a timely manner. Along with that pay close attention to weather forecasts. Sources like the Weather channel, Accuraweather, etc are also good sources for coverage.
Finally, if a tornado hits, you will likely be your own FIRST RESPONDER, so be prepared by learning first aid skills, being equipped as well as establishing relationships with your neighbors to pull thru until outside help arrives.
GOP lawmakers are now demanding answers about the mishap.
The heck it was a mishap. It was intentional.
They knew who he was and they did it anyways.
For that matter, he should have been deported or sent to Gitmo in the first place.
April 8 also happens to be the last day of Ramadan. Just noticing......
April 8 also happens to be the last day of Ramadan. Just noticing......
Just realized that with the crowds in some places, it would be a great opportunity for a mass casualty event.
Ping to post 350
Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of APR 2, 2024
Ramadan thru about April 8.
Iran has stated US involvement in the Israeli air strike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus. This big hit took out a lot of key IRGC top leaders - the ones Iran would look to in order to manage any Hezbollah war with Israel. Technically, hitting the diplomatic compound constitutes an attack on sovereign territory as well. Iran in the past has launched attacks against US interests globally in response to Israeli strikes. In that Zahedi is the replacement for Suleimani, who was taken out by a US airstrike, this action likely crossed many red lines for Iran.
Retaliation may come in many forms. Physical attacks on US interests globally, concentrated in Europe and Syria/Iraq. Cyber attacks increased probability.
In the US, Iranian terror groups may be activated and conduct terror ops here. Pro-hamas protest supporters may try to utilize this to increase hatred for Jewish interests in the US.
NOTE - there have been no formal terrorism threat alerts from any of the alphabet agencies in Washington. However, events are breaking fast and one may be soon to come.
Economy-
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday it will take a while for policymakers to evaluate the current state of inflation, keeping the timing of potential interest rate cuts uncertain.
Speaking specifically about stronger-than-expected price pressures to start the year, the central bank leader said he and his fellow officials are in no rush to ease monetary policy.
“On inflation, it is too soon to say whether the recent readings represent more than just a bump,” Powell said in remarks ahead of a question-and-answer session at Stanford University.
“We do not expect that it will be appropriate to lower our policy rate until we have greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably down toward 2 percent,” he added. “Given the strength of the economy and progress on inflation so far, we have time to let the incoming data guide our decisions on policy.”
The remarks come two weeks after the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee again voted to hold benchmark short-term borrowing rates steady. In addition, the committee’s post-meeting statement on March 20 included the “greater confidence” qualifier needed before cutting.
Powell still is inclined to reduce rates later this year.
OBSERVATION - Some aspects of the economy and in particular, the markets, are dying for a rate decrease as it would cause stocks to rise. Powell’s cautionary statements have thrown cold water on an early rate reduction. The decline in inflation (with a lot of cooked numbers) is at a phase where elements like petroleum prices etc, are on the rise and will soon execute pressure to raise other prices higher. No breaks seen in the housing market either - thru high home prices and mortgage rates.
***
The United States is almost certainly on an unsustainable path with regard to the astronomic rise in its national debt, according to a million simulations run by Bloomberg.
Bloomberg reported Tuesday that it conducted a million simulations on the U.S. debt outlook and found 88% of them show borrowing is on an “unsustainable path.”
The findings come after a forecast by the Congressional Budget Office that indicates the national debt will grow to an astonishing $54 trillion in the next decade, the result of an aging population and rising federal health care costs. Higher interest rates are also compounding the pain of higher debt.
Payments are expected to triple from nearly $475 billion in fiscal year 2022 to a stunning $1.4 trillion in 2032. By 2053, the interest payments are projected to surge to $5.4 trillion. To put that into perspective, that will be more than the U.S. spends on Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid and all other mandatory and discretionary spending programs.
OBSERVATION - You can’t keep adding one TRILLION to the deficit every 100 days indefinitely. This of course, plays right into the hands of the ‘great reset’ crowd.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
Biden drained our Strategic Petroleum Reserve down to 17 days of supply. In 2022, Biden claimed he had “a plan to refill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve” after draining it to its lowest level in four decades.
Today he cancelled the refill order stating that the price of oil is too high.
OBSERVATION - Long term average has been about 35 days worth of storage. Under Trump, a considerable amount of oil at bargain basement prices were added to the reserve. The stockpile was squandered by biden in a deliberate effort to weaken our reserves.
With potential war with Iran, middle east petroleum sources to the US may be endangered and would cause severe disruptions in supply and a steep increase in prices.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –
The “bird flu” has now reportedly been detected in cattle from Ohio.
POLITICAL FRONT –
July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
Recent WSJ polls reflect very bad news for biden, showing him getting hammered in all but one swing state. Demographic shifts towards Trump are also yuge.
Remember, polling now a days is more inclined to shape opinions rather than accurately reflect opinions.
China –
Remarkably low loss of life from the 7.4 quake that hit Taiwan. They’ve taken seismic building standards seriously and the results show it. Last count was 8 dead! Numbers could go up, but when compared to what has happened in the US, it is incredible.
North/South Korea –
The NK rocket test earlier this week was a newer version of a intermediate range, solid fuel rocket. Prominent was the angular “hypersonic” warhead that was likely also tested.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Mar 21, 2024.
Russia has taken advantage of Ukrainian ammo shortages, forcing them into primary defensive operations, and has seized the initiative following the fall of Avdiivka. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. The attacks are scattered along the front, concentrating on five axises of attack -
- Avdiivka,
- Maryinka,
- Robotyne,
- Kremenka and
- Bakhmut.
Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.
With the exception of Avdiivka, initial Russia attacks along the other axises have had poor results and exceptionally heavy losses. Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with. In some cases, over 70% of these newer tanks have been destroyed or captured by Ukraine.
In these other attacks, Russia continues to make poor use of fire and maneuver, preferring tank/armor ‘charges’ across open areas and down roads. This brings them into prepared kill zones where these forces are stopped and destroyed.
The most significant change in Russian tactics is on the Avdiivka front, where Russian is doing a much better job of launching what one could consider combined arms attacks.
When Ukraine lacks the artillery, Russian forces are able to penetrate in mass and overwhelm the fewer Ukrainian defenders.
Russian organization and capabilities make it unlikely that they will be able to quickly take advantage of penetrations into Ukrainian defenses. Poor training and lack of leadership at all levels, combined with poor logistic trains, will prevent any major breakouts beyond initial penetration of lines.
Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage. Russia is relying heavily on N Korean artillery rounds and Iranian drone/missiles.
Russian appears to be continuing to shepherd its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2022./23 This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage. Ammo shortages are starting to impact Ukraine ADA defenses.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. Ukraine continues to engage and destroy Russian naval vessels..
While the Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine, early in this winter/spring offensive, Russian has more aggressively conducted CAS in support of ground troops, reflecting ADA shortages. As a result, Russia has been able to locally seize air superiority at key locations along the front - the first time in two years of fighting. This has been at a cost, with a number Su-34/35 aircraft being lost in the last part of February alone as well as critical A50 AWAC systems.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.
Unknowns at this time are how soon ammo supples will start hitting Ukrainian units. Long range ATACMS and German Taurus cruise missiles may be coming on line soon for Ukraine as well as F-16s (now reportedly due in late spring/early summer). But the most critical item is artillery ammo.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 30-70 range with some local highs into the 70s. No significant precipitation in the forecast.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down 11 of 20 Shahed drones.
Ukraine hit more Russian petroleum targets with a fuel depot set on fire in Rostov.
Russian forces have redoubled their attacks all along the eastern front. Biggest battles continue to be centered in the Avdiivka sector. Russia throwing every piece of armor they have into an attempt to cause the collapse of Ukraine defenses. For its part, Ukraine is extracting very heavy losses to those tanks and APCs in addition to infantry and for the most part continue to be successful in breaking these attacks.
Outlook —
Russia throwing more and more against Ukraine front lines, in an effort get as much territory as possible before ammunition reaches the Ukraine defenders and before the spring rainy season converts the terrain into a mud bog again. Weather conditions for the next couple weeks has pretty fair conditions conducive to Russian attacks.
Ukraine is relying on a relative abundance of Javelin ATGMs and attack drones to stop these armor charges. The artillery support is apparently being reserved to clean up the areas after an assault has been blunted and Russians are on foot. While Russia has been rolling an impressive number of tanks and APCs into these assaults, Ukraine has been rolling up some impressive numbers of tank/armor kills.
There are many voices out there claiming Ukraine forces/defenses are ready to break. I will agree that they are being hard pressed, but the fury of their defense indicates that they aren’t in full retreat mode any time soon.
ISRAEL –
Dates to remember -
Ramadan March 11 - April 8
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
***
The Israeli army says it has halted home leave for all combat troops, following a fresh assessment.”The Israeli army is at war and the issue of the deployment of forces is constantly reviewed as needed” the Israeli army adds
***
Leftists protested in Tel Aviv overnight calling for the end of Netanyahu’s leadership and an end to the Gaza conflict.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
IDF continued search and destroy operations throughout Gaza while preparing for entry into Rafah.
Two rockets were fired from the Gaza Strip at the southern city of Sderot a short while ago, the municipality says. One of the rockets was shot down by the Iron Dome, while the second hit an open area outside the city, a spokesperson for Sderot says.
The Israeli army says that it has bolstered and called up reservists for its air defense array, following a fresh assessment
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
IAF and artillery continue to conduct strikes throughout S Lebanon in response to Hezbollah attacks.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Israel remains on heightened alert for retaliatory strikes by Iran and its proxies.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Israeli security forces conducted numerous raids overnight at multiple locations across the West Bank.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
USS Gravely & other CENTCOM forces shot down an anti-ship ballistic missile & 2 drones launched by Iran-back Houthis in Yemen April 3. US also destroyed a Houthi mobile surface-to-air missile system.
SMH - The US said it would consider revoking its recent designation of Yemen’s Houthis as terrorists if the Iran-backed militants cease their shipping attacks in and around the Red Sea. (Bloomberg)
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Arab League Council - The invasion of Rafah will be considered an attack on Arab national security
——— FORECAST ————————-
Things are continuing to be tense in Israel as they wait out the anticipated Iranian retaliatory attack(s). More and more unconfirmed reports that Iran is planing to strike Israel proper are leading the RUMIT cycle. Behind these ‘reports’ lies the thought that Iran can do so without consequences and that Israel would be the one to eventually back down.
I think Iran may be underestimating Israel.
As I’ve noted many times, the Islamic world respects power/force over rhetoric. In the current crisis, Iran has lost face with the rest of the arabs in the region, showing weakness in letting their top military leadership get nailed so easily. So they have to mount a credible retaliatory strike.
The most dangerous course of action is for Iran to launch from Iran proper and attack Israel. In doing so will open itself up for Israeli retaliatory strikes on a number of targets.
One last item, with the conflict growing away from Iranian proxies to the country itself, the hidden danger is that Iran will go for it all and try to product a nuclear device. They have enough highly enriched uranium to use to go for the 90% purity needed for a bomb. The only other question is whether or not they can then quickly design a warhead and reentry device their missiles can carry to Israel.
So many dangerous paths are potentially out there in the coming days.
As far as the Gaza portion of the conflict goes, a relatively ‘routine’ overnight with more targeting of remaining Hamas cells throughout Gaza and continued readiness to enter Rafah.
Iran – HIGH Warning for supported attacks against Israeli and US interests across the globe. Apr 2, 2024
See Israel above for analysis. Clock is ticking and the next 24-48 hours may be decisive for the region.
***
An anti-regime militia called Jaish al-Adl (Army of Justice) has attacked two Iranian military checkpoints, including a police station in the city center of Chabahar, in the far southeast of Iran. According to reports they have also attacked the IRGC’s HQ in Rask. At least three Iranian security forces reported killed in the Jaish al-Adl attack.
Iranian State Media later reported that at least 5 Members of the Jaysh al-Adl militant group and 5 Iranian security forces personnel have been killed so far during heavy fighting in the Southeast portion of the country.
A massive explosion occurred at an arms depot of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) near the Town of Rask in Southeastern Iran, which was claimed to have been captured earlier by Jaysh al-Adi. Unconfirmed reports that miltants managed to capture the IRGC Naval Headquarters in the coastal city of Chah Bahar.
Most recent update has Iran claiming to have restored control over the region - those claims are disputed.
OBSERVATION - What timing, as the mullahs contemplate how they want to hit Israel there is an active uprising in country.
Iraq -
U.S. and Coalition Forces in the Kurdistan region of northern Iraq have reportedly been placed on hHigh alert for a possible ballistic or cruise missile attack by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) of Iran against facilities in and around the city of Erbil which Iran claims are operated by members of Israeli Intelligence; the attack be in response to the Israeli airstrike this week against the Iranian Embassy Compound in Damascus.
OBSERVATION - Iran has hit this region in the past in retaliation for Israel strikes that have taken out key leaders in the past. Claiming they hit a mossad facility is an easy out to claim a victorious counter strike against Israel.