Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of APR 2, 2024
Ramadan thru about April 8.
Iran has stated US involvement in the Israeli air strike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus. This big hit took out a lot of key IRGC top leaders - the ones Iran would look to in order to manage any Hezbollah war with Israel. Technically, hitting the diplomatic compound constitutes an attack on sovereign territory as well. Iran in the past has launched attacks against US interests globally in response to Israeli strikes. In that Zahedi is the replacement for Suleimani, who was taken out by a US airstrike, this action likely crossed many red lines for Iran.
Retaliation may come in many forms. Physical attacks on US interests globally, concentrated in Europe and Syria/Iraq. Cyber attacks increased probability.
In the US, Iranian terror groups may be activated and conduct terror ops here. Pro-hamas protest supporters may try to utilize this to increase hatred for Jewish interests in the US.
NOTE - there have been no formal terrorism threat alerts from any of the alphabet agencies in Washington. However, events are breaking fast and one may be soon to come.
Economy-
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday it will take a while for policymakers to evaluate the current state of inflation, keeping the timing of potential interest rate cuts uncertain.
Speaking specifically about stronger-than-expected price pressures to start the year, the central bank leader said he and his fellow officials are in no rush to ease monetary policy.
“On inflation, it is too soon to say whether the recent readings represent more than just a bump,” Powell said in remarks ahead of a question-and-answer session at Stanford University.
“We do not expect that it will be appropriate to lower our policy rate until we have greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably down toward 2 percent,” he added. “Given the strength of the economy and progress on inflation so far, we have time to let the incoming data guide our decisions on policy.”
The remarks come two weeks after the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee again voted to hold benchmark short-term borrowing rates steady. In addition, the committee’s post-meeting statement on March 20 included the “greater confidence” qualifier needed before cutting.
Powell still is inclined to reduce rates later this year.
OBSERVATION - Some aspects of the economy and in particular, the markets, are dying for a rate decrease as it would cause stocks to rise. Powell’s cautionary statements have thrown cold water on an early rate reduction. The decline in inflation (with a lot of cooked numbers) is at a phase where elements like petroleum prices etc, are on the rise and will soon execute pressure to raise other prices higher. No breaks seen in the housing market either - thru high home prices and mortgage rates.
***
The United States is almost certainly on an unsustainable path with regard to the astronomic rise in its national debt, according to a million simulations run by Bloomberg.
Bloomberg reported Tuesday that it conducted a million simulations on the U.S. debt outlook and found 88% of them show borrowing is on an “unsustainable path.”
The findings come after a forecast by the Congressional Budget Office that indicates the national debt will grow to an astonishing $54 trillion in the next decade, the result of an aging population and rising federal health care costs. Higher interest rates are also compounding the pain of higher debt.
Payments are expected to triple from nearly $475 billion in fiscal year 2022 to a stunning $1.4 trillion in 2032. By 2053, the interest payments are projected to surge to $5.4 trillion. To put that into perspective, that will be more than the U.S. spends on Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid and all other mandatory and discretionary spending programs.
OBSERVATION - You can’t keep adding one TRILLION to the deficit every 100 days indefinitely. This of course, plays right into the hands of the ‘great reset’ crowd.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
Biden drained our Strategic Petroleum Reserve down to 17 days of supply. In 2022, Biden claimed he had “a plan to refill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve” after draining it to its lowest level in four decades.
Today he cancelled the refill order stating that the price of oil is too high.
OBSERVATION - Long term average has been about 35 days worth of storage. Under Trump, a considerable amount of oil at bargain basement prices were added to the reserve. The stockpile was squandered by biden in a deliberate effort to weaken our reserves.
With potential war with Iran, middle east petroleum sources to the US may be endangered and would cause severe disruptions in supply and a steep increase in prices.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –
The “bird flu” has now reportedly been detected in cattle from Ohio.
POLITICAL FRONT –
July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
Recent WSJ polls reflect very bad news for biden, showing him getting hammered in all but one swing state. Demographic shifts towards Trump are also yuge.
Remember, polling now a days is more inclined to shape opinions rather than accurately reflect opinions.
China –
Remarkably low loss of life from the 7.4 quake that hit Taiwan. They’ve taken seismic building standards seriously and the results show it. Last count was 8 dead! Numbers could go up, but when compared to what has happened in the US, it is incredible.
North/South Korea –
The NK rocket test earlier this week was a newer version of a intermediate range, solid fuel rocket. Prominent was the angular “hypersonic” warhead that was likely also tested.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Mar 21, 2024.
Russia has taken advantage of Ukrainian ammo shortages, forcing them into primary defensive operations, and has seized the initiative following the fall of Avdiivka. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. The attacks are scattered along the front, concentrating on five axises of attack -
- Avdiivka,
- Maryinka,
- Robotyne,
- Kremenka and
- Bakhmut.
Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.
With the exception of Avdiivka, initial Russia attacks along the other axises have had poor results and exceptionally heavy losses. Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with. In some cases, over 70% of these newer tanks have been destroyed or captured by Ukraine.
In these other attacks, Russia continues to make poor use of fire and maneuver, preferring tank/armor ‘charges’ across open areas and down roads. This brings them into prepared kill zones where these forces are stopped and destroyed.
The most significant change in Russian tactics is on the Avdiivka front, where Russian is doing a much better job of launching what one could consider combined arms attacks.
When Ukraine lacks the artillery, Russian forces are able to penetrate in mass and overwhelm the fewer Ukrainian defenders.
Russian organization and capabilities make it unlikely that they will be able to quickly take advantage of penetrations into Ukrainian defenses. Poor training and lack of leadership at all levels, combined with poor logistic trains, will prevent any major breakouts beyond initial penetration of lines.
Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage. Russia is relying heavily on N Korean artillery rounds and Iranian drone/missiles.
Russian appears to be continuing to shepherd its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2022./23 This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage. Ammo shortages are starting to impact Ukraine ADA defenses.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. Ukraine continues to engage and destroy Russian naval vessels..
While the Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine, early in this winter/spring offensive, Russian has more aggressively conducted CAS in support of ground troops, reflecting ADA shortages. As a result, Russia has been able to locally seize air superiority at key locations along the front - the first time in two years of fighting. This has been at a cost, with a number Su-34/35 aircraft being lost in the last part of February alone as well as critical A50 AWAC systems.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.
Unknowns at this time are how soon ammo supples will start hitting Ukrainian units. Long range ATACMS and German Taurus cruise missiles may be coming on line soon for Ukraine as well as F-16s (now reportedly due in late spring/early summer). But the most critical item is artillery ammo.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 30-70 range with some local highs into the 70s. No significant precipitation in the forecast.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down 11 of 20 Shahed drones.
Ukraine hit more Russian petroleum targets with a fuel depot set on fire in Rostov.
Russian forces have redoubled their attacks all along the eastern front. Biggest battles continue to be centered in the Avdiivka sector. Russia throwing every piece of armor they have into an attempt to cause the collapse of Ukraine defenses. For its part, Ukraine is extracting very heavy losses to those tanks and APCs in addition to infantry and for the most part continue to be successful in breaking these attacks.
Outlook —
Russia throwing more and more against Ukraine front lines, in an effort get as much territory as possible before ammunition reaches the Ukraine defenders and before the spring rainy season converts the terrain into a mud bog again. Weather conditions for the next couple weeks has pretty fair conditions conducive to Russian attacks.
Ukraine is relying on a relative abundance of Javelin ATGMs and attack drones to stop these armor charges. The artillery support is apparently being reserved to clean up the areas after an assault has been blunted and Russians are on foot. While Russia has been rolling an impressive number of tanks and APCs into these assaults, Ukraine has been rolling up some impressive numbers of tank/armor kills.
There are many voices out there claiming Ukraine forces/defenses are ready to break. I will agree that they are being hard pressed, but the fury of their defense indicates that they aren’t in full retreat mode any time soon.
ISRAEL –
Dates to remember -
Ramadan March 11 - April 8
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
***
The Israeli army says it has halted home leave for all combat troops, following a fresh assessment.”The Israeli army is at war and the issue of the deployment of forces is constantly reviewed as needed” the Israeli army adds
***
Leftists protested in Tel Aviv overnight calling for the end of Netanyahu’s leadership and an end to the Gaza conflict.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
IDF continued search and destroy operations throughout Gaza while preparing for entry into Rafah.
Two rockets were fired from the Gaza Strip at the southern city of Sderot a short while ago, the municipality says. One of the rockets was shot down by the Iron Dome, while the second hit an open area outside the city, a spokesperson for Sderot says.
The Israeli army says that it has bolstered and called up reservists for its air defense array, following a fresh assessment
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
IAF and artillery continue to conduct strikes throughout S Lebanon in response to Hezbollah attacks.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Israel remains on heightened alert for retaliatory strikes by Iran and its proxies.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Israeli security forces conducted numerous raids overnight at multiple locations across the West Bank.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
USS Gravely & other CENTCOM forces shot down an anti-ship ballistic missile & 2 drones launched by Iran-back Houthis in Yemen April 3. US also destroyed a Houthi mobile surface-to-air missile system.
SMH - The US said it would consider revoking its recent designation of Yemen’s Houthis as terrorists if the Iran-backed militants cease their shipping attacks in and around the Red Sea. (Bloomberg)
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Arab League Council - The invasion of Rafah will be considered an attack on Arab national security
——— FORECAST ————————-
Things are continuing to be tense in Israel as they wait out the anticipated Iranian retaliatory attack(s). More and more unconfirmed reports that Iran is planing to strike Israel proper are leading the RUMIT cycle. Behind these ‘reports’ lies the thought that Iran can do so without consequences and that Israel would be the one to eventually back down.
I think Iran may be underestimating Israel.
As I’ve noted many times, the Islamic world respects power/force over rhetoric. In the current crisis, Iran has lost face with the rest of the arabs in the region, showing weakness in letting their top military leadership get nailed so easily. So they have to mount a credible retaliatory strike.
The most dangerous course of action is for Iran to launch from Iran proper and attack Israel. In doing so will open itself up for Israeli retaliatory strikes on a number of targets.
One last item, with the conflict growing away from Iranian proxies to the country itself, the hidden danger is that Iran will go for it all and try to product a nuclear device. They have enough highly enriched uranium to use to go for the 90% purity needed for a bomb. The only other question is whether or not they can then quickly design a warhead and reentry device their missiles can carry to Israel.
So many dangerous paths are potentially out there in the coming days.
As far as the Gaza portion of the conflict goes, a relatively ‘routine’ overnight with more targeting of remaining Hamas cells throughout Gaza and continued readiness to enter Rafah.
Iran – HIGH Warning for supported attacks against Israeli and US interests across the globe. Apr 2, 2024
See Israel above for analysis. Clock is ticking and the next 24-48 hours may be decisive for the region.
***
An anti-regime militia called Jaish al-Adl (Army of Justice) has attacked two Iranian military checkpoints, including a police station in the city center of Chabahar, in the far southeast of Iran. According to reports they have also attacked the IRGC’s HQ in Rask. At least three Iranian security forces reported killed in the Jaish al-Adl attack.
Iranian State Media later reported that at least 5 Members of the Jaysh al-Adl militant group and 5 Iranian security forces personnel have been killed so far during heavy fighting in the Southeast portion of the country.
A massive explosion occurred at an arms depot of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) near the Town of Rask in Southeastern Iran, which was claimed to have been captured earlier by Jaysh al-Adi. Unconfirmed reports that miltants managed to capture the IRGC Naval Headquarters in the coastal city of Chah Bahar.
Most recent update has Iran claiming to have restored control over the region - those claims are disputed.
OBSERVATION - What timing, as the mullahs contemplate how they want to hit Israel there is an active uprising in country.
Iraq -
U.S. and Coalition Forces in the Kurdistan region of northern Iraq have reportedly been placed on hHigh alert for a possible ballistic or cruise missile attack by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) of Iran against facilities in and around the city of Erbil which Iran claims are operated by members of Israeli Intelligence; the attack be in response to the Israeli airstrike this week against the Iranian Embassy Compound in Damascus.
OBSERVATION - Iran has hit this region in the past in retaliation for Israel strikes that have taken out key leaders in the past. Claiming they hit a mossad facility is an easy out to claim a victorious counter strike against Israel.
Any numbers on how many Iranian illegals of military age walked across the border since Biden took office?
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
LibsofTiktok are reporting that Trans Redditors are now openly discussing committing politically motivated mass shootings and public suicides. Over the past year, there have been number of mass murder events by trans or similar gender confused individuals.
***
More pro-hamas protests scheduled this weekend across the country. The intensity of these protests may be enhanced if Iran strikes Israel this weekend and israel counter strikes.
Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of APR 2, 2024
Ramadan thru about April 8.
Iran has stated US involvement in the Israeli air strike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus. This big hit took out a lot of key IRGC top leaders - the ones Iran would look to in order to manage any Hezbollah war with Israel. Technically, hitting the diplomatic compound constitutes an attack on sovereign territory as well. Iran in the past has launched attacks against US interests globally in response to Israeli strikes. In that Zahedi is the replacement for Suleimani, who was taken out by a US airstrike, this action likely crossed many red lines for Iran.
Retaliation may come in many forms. Physical attacks on US interests globally, concentrated in Europe and Syria/Iraq. Cyber attacks increased probability.
In the US, Iranian terror groups may be activated and conduct terror ops here. Pro-hamas protest supporters may try to utilize this to increase hatred for Jewish interests in the US.
NOTE - there have been no formal terrorism threat alerts from any of the alphabet agencies in Washington. However, events are breaking fast and one may be soon to come.
***
Economy-
Brent oil futures hit $90 a barrel overnight. This represents a $2/barrel spike, most likely reflecting concerns over the potential expansion of the Gaza war. Gold and silver prices have also climbed in recent days as well.
At present, gasoline prices are at 6 month high levels.
***
Just over a week after the catastrophic collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge, the US Army Corps of Engineers announced it plans to fully reopen the channel leading to the Baltimore port by the end of May – a significant update since the disaster halted vessel traffic and delivered a serious blow to a port critical to local and national economies.
https://www.aol.com/news/us-army-corps-engineers-plans-234253785.html
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –
Bird flu outbreaks have been reported at 2 more dairy farms, in Kansas and New Mexico, raising the total to 15.
POLITICAL FRONT –
July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
Lara Trump, the recently elected co-chair of the Republican National Committee, told Newsmax on Thursday that her first few weeks on the job have produced a massive windfall for Donald Trump, adding that the RNC has significantly closed the fundraising gap with President Joe Biden’s campaign.
Further, in an interview with “Eric Bolling The Balance,” Lara Trump said the changes instituted with RNC Chair Michael Whatley have put her father-in-law in a stronger position.
“That’s been really the only talking point that I think the DNC [Democratic National Committee] has had is that, ‘Oh, well, they have more money than us.’ Not for long, folks,” Lara Trump told host Bolling. “This was a huge fundraising month for the RNC. ... We’re really proud of the work we’ve done, and we’re just getting started.”
While Trump didn’t give a tally, it was reported this week that the RNC raised $65.6 million in March.
OBSERVATION - Striving to repair the damage caused by RINO Ronna McDaniel.
***
Democrat voices are continuing to call for Justice Sonia Sotomayor to retire so that they can try to get a younger liberal judge seated before the Nov elections. These calls highlight the democrat fears that Trump will win and Sotomayor may be out of the court due to growing medical issues (or even die) during his term.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Biden is under fire for waiving more sanction requirements for Iran even as Iranian-backed militant terrorist groups continue to launch attacks on Israel as well as U.S. and other ships in the Red Sea, hiking costs for Americans.
And Iranian proxy Hamas holding onto US citizens as hostages.
China –
White House official John Kirby says that the Biden administration doesn’t support Taiwan’s independence.
The comment came after a reporter asked about Biden’s call with President Xi.
“I won’t characterize President Xi’s comments, but I can tell you that that President Biden was very, very clear that that nothing’s changed about our one China policy.”
“We don’t support independence for Taiwan, but we also don’t wanna see the status quo changed in a unilateral way, and certainly not by force.”
OBSERVATION - Huge change in US policy and an open invitation for China to take action.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Mar 21, 2024.
Russia has taken advantage of Ukrainian ammo shortages, forcing them into primary defensive operations, and has seized the initiative following the fall of Avdiivka. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. The attacks are scattered along the front, concentrating on five axises of attack -
- Avdiivka,
- Maryinka,
- Robotyne,
- Kremenka and
- Bakhmut.
Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.
With the exception of Avdiivka, initial Russia attacks along the other axises have had poor results and exceptionally heavy losses. Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with. In some cases, over 70% of these newer tanks have been destroyed or captured by Ukraine.
In these other attacks, Russia continues to make poor use of fire and maneuver, preferring tank/armor ‘charges’ across open areas and down roads. This brings them into prepared kill zones where these forces are stopped and destroyed.
The most significant change in Russian tactics is on the Avdiivka front, where Russian is doing a much better job of launching what one could consider combined arms attacks.
When Ukraine lacks the artillery, Russian forces are able to penetrate in mass and overwhelm the fewer Ukrainian defenders.
Russian organization and capabilities make it unlikely that they will be able to quickly take advantage of penetrations into Ukrainian defenses. Poor training and lack of leadership at all levels, combined with poor logistic trains, will prevent any major breakouts beyond initial penetration of lines.
Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage. Russia is relying heavily on N Korean artillery rounds and Iranian drone/missiles.
Russian appears to be continuing to shepherd its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2022./23 This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage. Ammo shortages are starting to impact Ukraine ADA defenses.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. Ukraine continues to engage and destroy Russian naval vessels..
While the Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine, early in this winter/spring offensive, Russian has more aggressively conducted CAS in support of ground troops, reflecting ADA shortages. As a result, Russia has been able to locally seize air superiority at key locations along the front - the first time in two years of fighting. This has been at a cost, with a number Su-34/35 aircraft being lost in the last part of February alone as well as critical A50 AWAC systems.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.
Unknowns at this time are how soon ammo supples will start hitting Ukrainian units. Long range ATACMS and German Taurus cruise missiles may be coming on line soon for Ukraine as well as F-16s (now reportedly due in late spring/early summer). But the most critical item is artillery ammo.
*****
Logistics –
Lukoil’s NORSI refinery, the 4th largest in Russia, has cut gasoline production by 40% due to difficulties repairing a broken unit. The only company capable of fixing it, UOP, withdrew from Russia after the invasion.
Russian companies are facing difficulties in repairing oil refineries due to Western sanctions, and Ukrainian drone attacks could worsen the problem, Reuters reported on April 4, citing unnamed sources familiar with the matter.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 30-70 range with some local highs into the 70s. No significant precipitation in the forecast.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Busy night for the drone wars. Ukrainian air defense shot down 13 of 13 Shahed drones.
Russia was on the receiving end of probably the largest Ukraine drone attack to date.
There were many loud explosions at Morozovsk Air Base in Russia, located 300km from the front in Ukraine. Over 60 explosions have been reported. The air base is home to 36x Su-34 and 4x Su-24 Russian Fighter Jets. Initial reports of 6 aircraft destroyed, 8 damaged (can consider destroyed as well given lack of spare parts) and 20 Russians killed.
Another Ukraine drone attack hit Engels Air Force Base, home to strategic bombers like the Tu-95 and Tu-22. Over 800km from the likely launch point in Kharkiv. Unconfirmed reports of damage to some of the bombers.
The Russian city of Kursk took a beating tonight from Ukraine drones as well.
The Battle of Chasiv Yar has started. Russian troops have reached the first buildings on the eastern edge of the town, they were quickly routed.
Chasiv Yar is on elevated terrain, occupying a commanding view of wide, open flat land approach the city. Russian forces have attempted several armored pushes on the town over the past week and have been seriously destroyed and repelled. Chasiv Yar is a critical node and has to be taken if the Russian Army is to continue to Slovyansk and Kramstorsk.
Ukraine delaying actions have given them a considerable amount of time to prepare enhanced defenses of the town. Some are estimating that it could cost as many as 70,000 Russian casualties for them to take the town.
Outlook —
Chasiv Yar is looking like the next bloodbath for Russian infantry. In a tactically commanding high ground with excellent fields of fire over flat open terrain that approaches the city, Russians better have plenty of body bags.
One thing I’ve not seen on these recent Russian armor attacks - supporting Russian artillery. Under US combined arms doctrine, artillery fire is suppose to suppress opposing forces capability to target and attack the armor forces. It has been absent without any reasons. Russian doctrine calls for a boatload of artillery in the attack. This tactic was last seen in the closing stages of the battle for Bakhmut, where Russian artillery would saturate an objective, giving the ground forces a chance to reach it and push out what ever remained of the defenders.
Ukraine continues to take the upper hand in its prosecution of the drone wars. The large attack on Morozovsk Air Base with at least 60 drones did a lot of damage to Russia’s shrinking airforce. BDA soon coming out from OSINT - IMINT sources.
Moldova/Transnistria -
The Romanian Ministry of Defense recently tabled a draft law that would allow the armed forces to intervene abroad in defense of their compatriots. This move is likely aimed against Moldova, where over 1.3 million people have Romanian citizenship due to their shared ethno-linguistic heritage, and not Ukraine despite the Romanian minority there being persecuted for not joining Kiev’s new “church”. It comes amidst the possibility of Russia achieving a military breakthrough across the front lines this year.
In that event, France and/or Poland might lead a conventional NATO intervention in order to prevent Russia from crossing the Dnieper, during which time Romania could annex Moldova on the pretext of defending its compatriots from Transnistrian-emanating Russian threats. Those moves would solidify Western military influence in the erstwhile USSR’s southwestern periphery and could be spun as a major victory ahead of Ukraine’s asymmetrical partition for ending the “war” as part of a compromise.
https://korybko.substack.com/p/romanias-draft-law-on-dispatching
OBSERVATION - Consensus seems to be an effort by Romania to incorporate Moldova as part of its territory then isolate Russian rebels in Transnistria out of existence and climate that threat to Romania and the west.
Europe / NATO General –
Finland announces it’s closing its border with Russia indefinitely. The decision was taken is response to Russia pushing flows of illegal migrants toward Finland in a form of hybrid warfare.
Russia has also used weaponized migration against Estonia.
***
A decision was just taken to launch a NATO mission for Ukraine. The news was broken by Polish Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski, saying it doesn’t mean NATO is entering the war, but that NATO’s coordinating, training & planning capabilities will now be used to help Ukraine.
BLINKEN: “Ukraine will become a member of NATO.”
OBSERVATIONS - The implementation and timing of such an entry into NATO is very fuzzy from the declaration. However, the more aggressive posture of NATO in support of Ukraine infers that it may soon become fully involved directly in the conflict. Poland and Turkey have both withdrawn from the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe, which would have restricted deployment of forces in Ukraine.
This coincides with increased talk and calls for European forces to enter Ukraine to support the fight against Russia.
A couple serious problems that NATO will be facing -
1) Ukraine, if/when it enters NATO, will have “unresolved” territorial issues. Crimea and the Donbass are in Russian hands. If Ukraine enters NATO with that being the case, border conflicts over that territory could spark war, which would then drag in NATO through Article V. Such a war would be extremely bloody and potentially escalate to nuclear armageddon
2) This is Putin’s red line. In the 90s, when the USSR fell, America promised the Russians that NATO wouldn’t expand to the East
ISRAEL –
Dates to remember -
Ramadan March 11 - April 8
Key overnight developments -
- Biden’s demands that Netanyahu implement an immediate ceasefire with no reference to the hostages being released
- Israel making large scale plans for defense and counter attack options should Iran and its proxy forces attack.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
***
In their 45-minute conversation, Biden demanded “an immediate ceasefire” to “protect innocent civilians.”
The official readout was less dramatic. In it,we are told that Biden “emphasized that the strikes on humanitarian workers and the overall humanitarian situation are unacceptable. Biden also told Netanyahu that Israel must “announce and implement” a series of “concrete and measurable steps” to protect aid workers and address humanitarian suffering.
But it says: “He made clear that U.S. policy with respect to Gaza will be determined by our assessment of Israel’s immediate action on these steps.” John Kirby said, “If there are no changes in their policy, there will have to be changes in ours.”
Hamas literally just rejected a six-week ceasefire with a 40-terrorist-to-one-hostage ratio and has has rejected every ceasefire offer over the past six months and is still holding hostages, including Americans, and refusing to release them.
***
Secretary of State Blinken stated in his press conference yesterday declared that Israel risks becoming indistinguishable from Hamas.
***
28 Israeli diplomatic missions across the world are closed due to fears of Iran in revenge after the attack in Damascus. Jerusalem post - Israel has requested that ambassadors do not appear at public events.
Israeli medical centers were placed on emergency standby and were told to be prepared for difficult scenarios. Most have been told to make sure they were fully staffed for this weekend.
***
Israeli military fired 2 officers and punished 3 others for drone strike in Gaza Monday night that killed 7 aid workers from World Central Kitchen
***
The Ministry of Health of Israel has summoned all hospital managers to a meeting to prepare for the threats from Iran: the Director General of the Ministry of Health, Moshe Bar Siman Tov, asked to make sure that there are enough medical teams on the weekend and in the coming days
***
Senior Israeli Officials have reportedly received Intelligence which indicates that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) of Iran may launch an attack on Friday against Israel utilizing Intermediate-Range Ballistic Missiles, Land-Attack Cruise Missiles, and One-Way “Suicide” Drones. The Israel Defense Force is preparing for the possibility over the next 72 Hours of a “Large-Scale Simultaneous Attack” from several different fronts, likely including but not limited to Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Iran, and Yemen.
Intense GPS jamming was activated in central Israel in preparation of an Iranian response. Reportedly locations in Tel Aviv are reading Beirut on GPS systems.
***
Netanyahu to members of Congress: There is an attempt to impose a Palestinian state on us that will turn into a haven for terrorism and attacks on us
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
IDF continued search and destroy operations throughout Gaza while preparing for entry into Rafah as well as preparing for Iranian attacks.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
IAF and artillery continue to conduct strikes throughout S Lebanon in response to Hezbollah attacks.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Considerable rumors of movement of missiles in both Israel and Iran.
The IDF is scrambling GPS in cities including Tel Aviv. Leave has been canceled for combat soldiers and air defense reservists have been called up.
Israel has notified the United States that if Iran makes the decision to target the territory of Israel, then they will be forced to respond.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Israeli security forces conducted numerous raids overnight at multiple locations across the West Bank.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
The Jordanian King and the Saudi Crown Prince: We support the establishment of an independent, sovereign Palestinian state along the lines of June 4, 1967.
——— FORECAST ————————-
biden essentially tossed the American hostages and the nation of Israel under the bus yesterday with his demands of an immediate and unilateral ceasefire based on the incidental deaths of 7 aid workers. This as Israel is close to entering Rafah and is expecting a substantial attack from Iran that could blow the whole region up into war. What biden et al is advocating is the surrender of Israel.
This points to the ever increasing isolation of Israel from the rest of the world, as anti-semitic forces are beginning to win the policy fights. As many note, if Israel capitulates to biden’s demands, its existence will be at even a greater risk than now.
Continued global calls for a two state solution rattle around as well, many calling for 1967 borders - a tactical situation that Israel cannot allow or accept.
Just what Iran’s response to the Damascus will be is hanging over the region. Israel in no uncertain terms has stated that they will hit the territory of Iran if Iran strikes the territory of Israel. The biggest wildcard is what will Hezbollah do? Will they launch the mega rocket barrage that has been threatened for years? It is almost a given that Iranian proxy elements in Syria, Iraq and Yemen will fire what ever assets they have at Israel in conjunction with drones, ballastic and cruise missile from Iran.
New suspected time line is less than 72 hours and with this being the day before Sabbath, a launch over that day carries a high probability .
Iran – HIGH Warning for supported attacks against Israeli and US interests across the globe. Apr 2, 2024
See Israel above for analysis. Clock is ticking and the next 24-48 hours may be decisive for the region.
***
Multiple reports of unidentified flying objects crossing into Iraqi airspace from Iran. Southeast towards Kurdistan. Videos indicate either reentry of space debris or exhaust from cruise missiles as the direction was toward Kurdistan region in Iraq. However, as of my writing there there have been no reports of any missile impacts in the region.
***
An anti-regime militia called Jaish al-Adl (Army of Justice) attacks in South East Iran appear to be over as govt and IRGC forces appear to have regained control. The Jaish al-Adl reportedly did considerable damage to an IRGC ammo dump in the region.
Iran has accused “foreign intelligence services” of launching simultaneous attacks on 5 military and security headquarters in the Iranian cities of Chabahar and Rask.
Turkey –
Turkish President Erdogan on Friday signed an act suspending Ankara’s obligations under the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE Treaty). The act will come into force on April 8
The original Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe was negotiated and concluded during the last years of the Cold War and established comprehensive limits on key categories of conventional military equipment in Europe and mandated the destruction of excess weaponry. The treaty proposed equal limits for the two “groups of states-parties”, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and the Warsaw Pact.