CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
LibsofTiktok are reporting that Trans Redditors are now openly discussing committing politically motivated mass shootings and public suicides. Over the past year, there have been number of mass murder events by trans or similar gender confused individuals.
***
More pro-hamas protests scheduled this weekend across the country. The intensity of these protests may be enhanced if Iran strikes Israel this weekend and israel counter strikes.
Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of APR 2, 2024
Ramadan thru about April 8.
Iran has stated US involvement in the Israeli air strike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus. This big hit took out a lot of key IRGC top leaders - the ones Iran would look to in order to manage any Hezbollah war with Israel. Technically, hitting the diplomatic compound constitutes an attack on sovereign territory as well. Iran in the past has launched attacks against US interests globally in response to Israeli strikes. In that Zahedi is the replacement for Suleimani, who was taken out by a US airstrike, this action likely crossed many red lines for Iran.
Retaliation may come in many forms. Physical attacks on US interests globally, concentrated in Europe and Syria/Iraq. Cyber attacks increased probability.
In the US, Iranian terror groups may be activated and conduct terror ops here. Pro-hamas protest supporters may try to utilize this to increase hatred for Jewish interests in the US.
NOTE - there have been no formal terrorism threat alerts from any of the alphabet agencies in Washington. However, events are breaking fast and one may be soon to come.
***
Economy-
Brent oil futures hit $90 a barrel overnight. This represents a $2/barrel spike, most likely reflecting concerns over the potential expansion of the Gaza war. Gold and silver prices have also climbed in recent days as well.
At present, gasoline prices are at 6 month high levels.
***
Just over a week after the catastrophic collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge, the US Army Corps of Engineers announced it plans to fully reopen the channel leading to the Baltimore port by the end of May – a significant update since the disaster halted vessel traffic and delivered a serious blow to a port critical to local and national economies.
https://www.aol.com/news/us-army-corps-engineers-plans-234253785.html
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –
Bird flu outbreaks have been reported at 2 more dairy farms, in Kansas and New Mexico, raising the total to 15.
POLITICAL FRONT –
July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
Lara Trump, the recently elected co-chair of the Republican National Committee, told Newsmax on Thursday that her first few weeks on the job have produced a massive windfall for Donald Trump, adding that the RNC has significantly closed the fundraising gap with President Joe Biden’s campaign.
Further, in an interview with “Eric Bolling The Balance,” Lara Trump said the changes instituted with RNC Chair Michael Whatley have put her father-in-law in a stronger position.
“That’s been really the only talking point that I think the DNC [Democratic National Committee] has had is that, ‘Oh, well, they have more money than us.’ Not for long, folks,” Lara Trump told host Bolling. “This was a huge fundraising month for the RNC. ... We’re really proud of the work we’ve done, and we’re just getting started.”
While Trump didn’t give a tally, it was reported this week that the RNC raised $65.6 million in March.
OBSERVATION - Striving to repair the damage caused by RINO Ronna McDaniel.
***
Democrat voices are continuing to call for Justice Sonia Sotomayor to retire so that they can try to get a younger liberal judge seated before the Nov elections. These calls highlight the democrat fears that Trump will win and Sotomayor may be out of the court due to growing medical issues (or even die) during his term.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Biden is under fire for waiving more sanction requirements for Iran even as Iranian-backed militant terrorist groups continue to launch attacks on Israel as well as U.S. and other ships in the Red Sea, hiking costs for Americans.
And Iranian proxy Hamas holding onto US citizens as hostages.
China –
White House official John Kirby says that the Biden administration doesn’t support Taiwan’s independence.
The comment came after a reporter asked about Biden’s call with President Xi.
“I won’t characterize President Xi’s comments, but I can tell you that that President Biden was very, very clear that that nothing’s changed about our one China policy.”
“We don’t support independence for Taiwan, but we also don’t wanna see the status quo changed in a unilateral way, and certainly not by force.”
OBSERVATION - Huge change in US policy and an open invitation for China to take action.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Mar 21, 2024.
Russia has taken advantage of Ukrainian ammo shortages, forcing them into primary defensive operations, and has seized the initiative following the fall of Avdiivka. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. The attacks are scattered along the front, concentrating on five axises of attack -
- Avdiivka,
- Maryinka,
- Robotyne,
- Kremenka and
- Bakhmut.
Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.
With the exception of Avdiivka, initial Russia attacks along the other axises have had poor results and exceptionally heavy losses. Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with. In some cases, over 70% of these newer tanks have been destroyed or captured by Ukraine.
In these other attacks, Russia continues to make poor use of fire and maneuver, preferring tank/armor ‘charges’ across open areas and down roads. This brings them into prepared kill zones where these forces are stopped and destroyed.
The most significant change in Russian tactics is on the Avdiivka front, where Russian is doing a much better job of launching what one could consider combined arms attacks.
When Ukraine lacks the artillery, Russian forces are able to penetrate in mass and overwhelm the fewer Ukrainian defenders.
Russian organization and capabilities make it unlikely that they will be able to quickly take advantage of penetrations into Ukrainian defenses. Poor training and lack of leadership at all levels, combined with poor logistic trains, will prevent any major breakouts beyond initial penetration of lines.
Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage. Russia is relying heavily on N Korean artillery rounds and Iranian drone/missiles.
Russian appears to be continuing to shepherd its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2022./23 This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage. Ammo shortages are starting to impact Ukraine ADA defenses.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. Ukraine continues to engage and destroy Russian naval vessels..
While the Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine, early in this winter/spring offensive, Russian has more aggressively conducted CAS in support of ground troops, reflecting ADA shortages. As a result, Russia has been able to locally seize air superiority at key locations along the front - the first time in two years of fighting. This has been at a cost, with a number Su-34/35 aircraft being lost in the last part of February alone as well as critical A50 AWAC systems.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.
Unknowns at this time are how soon ammo supples will start hitting Ukrainian units. Long range ATACMS and German Taurus cruise missiles may be coming on line soon for Ukraine as well as F-16s (now reportedly due in late spring/early summer). But the most critical item is artillery ammo.
*****
Logistics –
Lukoil’s NORSI refinery, the 4th largest in Russia, has cut gasoline production by 40% due to difficulties repairing a broken unit. The only company capable of fixing it, UOP, withdrew from Russia after the invasion.
Russian companies are facing difficulties in repairing oil refineries due to Western sanctions, and Ukrainian drone attacks could worsen the problem, Reuters reported on April 4, citing unnamed sources familiar with the matter.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 30-70 range with some local highs into the 70s. No significant precipitation in the forecast.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Busy night for the drone wars. Ukrainian air defense shot down 13 of 13 Shahed drones.
Russia was on the receiving end of probably the largest Ukraine drone attack to date.
There were many loud explosions at Morozovsk Air Base in Russia, located 300km from the front in Ukraine. Over 60 explosions have been reported. The air base is home to 36x Su-34 and 4x Su-24 Russian Fighter Jets. Initial reports of 6 aircraft destroyed, 8 damaged (can consider destroyed as well given lack of spare parts) and 20 Russians killed.
Another Ukraine drone attack hit Engels Air Force Base, home to strategic bombers like the Tu-95 and Tu-22. Over 800km from the likely launch point in Kharkiv. Unconfirmed reports of damage to some of the bombers.
The Russian city of Kursk took a beating tonight from Ukraine drones as well.
The Battle of Chasiv Yar has started. Russian troops have reached the first buildings on the eastern edge of the town, they were quickly routed.
Chasiv Yar is on elevated terrain, occupying a commanding view of wide, open flat land approach the city. Russian forces have attempted several armored pushes on the town over the past week and have been seriously destroyed and repelled. Chasiv Yar is a critical node and has to be taken if the Russian Army is to continue to Slovyansk and Kramstorsk.
Ukraine delaying actions have given them a considerable amount of time to prepare enhanced defenses of the town. Some are estimating that it could cost as many as 70,000 Russian casualties for them to take the town.
Outlook —
Chasiv Yar is looking like the next bloodbath for Russian infantry. In a tactically commanding high ground with excellent fields of fire over flat open terrain that approaches the city, Russians better have plenty of body bags.
One thing I’ve not seen on these recent Russian armor attacks - supporting Russian artillery. Under US combined arms doctrine, artillery fire is suppose to suppress opposing forces capability to target and attack the armor forces. It has been absent without any reasons. Russian doctrine calls for a boatload of artillery in the attack. This tactic was last seen in the closing stages of the battle for Bakhmut, where Russian artillery would saturate an objective, giving the ground forces a chance to reach it and push out what ever remained of the defenders.
Ukraine continues to take the upper hand in its prosecution of the drone wars. The large attack on Morozovsk Air Base with at least 60 drones did a lot of damage to Russia’s shrinking airforce. BDA soon coming out from OSINT - IMINT sources.
Moldova/Transnistria -
The Romanian Ministry of Defense recently tabled a draft law that would allow the armed forces to intervene abroad in defense of their compatriots. This move is likely aimed against Moldova, where over 1.3 million people have Romanian citizenship due to their shared ethno-linguistic heritage, and not Ukraine despite the Romanian minority there being persecuted for not joining Kiev’s new “church”. It comes amidst the possibility of Russia achieving a military breakthrough across the front lines this year.
In that event, France and/or Poland might lead a conventional NATO intervention in order to prevent Russia from crossing the Dnieper, during which time Romania could annex Moldova on the pretext of defending its compatriots from Transnistrian-emanating Russian threats. Those moves would solidify Western military influence in the erstwhile USSR’s southwestern periphery and could be spun as a major victory ahead of Ukraine’s asymmetrical partition for ending the “war” as part of a compromise.
https://korybko.substack.com/p/romanias-draft-law-on-dispatching
OBSERVATION - Consensus seems to be an effort by Romania to incorporate Moldova as part of its territory then isolate Russian rebels in Transnistria out of existence and climate that threat to Romania and the west.
Europe / NATO General –
Finland announces it’s closing its border with Russia indefinitely. The decision was taken is response to Russia pushing flows of illegal migrants toward Finland in a form of hybrid warfare.
Russia has also used weaponized migration against Estonia.
***
A decision was just taken to launch a NATO mission for Ukraine. The news was broken by Polish Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski, saying it doesn’t mean NATO is entering the war, but that NATO’s coordinating, training & planning capabilities will now be used to help Ukraine.
BLINKEN: “Ukraine will become a member of NATO.”
OBSERVATIONS - The implementation and timing of such an entry into NATO is very fuzzy from the declaration. However, the more aggressive posture of NATO in support of Ukraine infers that it may soon become fully involved directly in the conflict. Poland and Turkey have both withdrawn from the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe, which would have restricted deployment of forces in Ukraine.
This coincides with increased talk and calls for European forces to enter Ukraine to support the fight against Russia.
A couple serious problems that NATO will be facing -
1) Ukraine, if/when it enters NATO, will have “unresolved” territorial issues. Crimea and the Donbass are in Russian hands. If Ukraine enters NATO with that being the case, border conflicts over that territory could spark war, which would then drag in NATO through Article V. Such a war would be extremely bloody and potentially escalate to nuclear armageddon
2) This is Putin’s red line. In the 90s, when the USSR fell, America promised the Russians that NATO wouldn’t expand to the East
ISRAEL –
Dates to remember -
Ramadan March 11 - April 8
Key overnight developments -
- Biden’s demands that Netanyahu implement an immediate ceasefire with no reference to the hostages being released
- Israel making large scale plans for defense and counter attack options should Iran and its proxy forces attack.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
***
In their 45-minute conversation, Biden demanded “an immediate ceasefire” to “protect innocent civilians.”
The official readout was less dramatic. In it,we are told that Biden “emphasized that the strikes on humanitarian workers and the overall humanitarian situation are unacceptable. Biden also told Netanyahu that Israel must “announce and implement” a series of “concrete and measurable steps” to protect aid workers and address humanitarian suffering.
But it says: “He made clear that U.S. policy with respect to Gaza will be determined by our assessment of Israel’s immediate action on these steps.” John Kirby said, “If there are no changes in their policy, there will have to be changes in ours.”
Hamas literally just rejected a six-week ceasefire with a 40-terrorist-to-one-hostage ratio and has has rejected every ceasefire offer over the past six months and is still holding hostages, including Americans, and refusing to release them.
***
Secretary of State Blinken stated in his press conference yesterday declared that Israel risks becoming indistinguishable from Hamas.
***
28 Israeli diplomatic missions across the world are closed due to fears of Iran in revenge after the attack in Damascus. Jerusalem post - Israel has requested that ambassadors do not appear at public events.
Israeli medical centers were placed on emergency standby and were told to be prepared for difficult scenarios. Most have been told to make sure they were fully staffed for this weekend.
***
Israeli military fired 2 officers and punished 3 others for drone strike in Gaza Monday night that killed 7 aid workers from World Central Kitchen
***
The Ministry of Health of Israel has summoned all hospital managers to a meeting to prepare for the threats from Iran: the Director General of the Ministry of Health, Moshe Bar Siman Tov, asked to make sure that there are enough medical teams on the weekend and in the coming days
***
Senior Israeli Officials have reportedly received Intelligence which indicates that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) of Iran may launch an attack on Friday against Israel utilizing Intermediate-Range Ballistic Missiles, Land-Attack Cruise Missiles, and One-Way “Suicide” Drones. The Israel Defense Force is preparing for the possibility over the next 72 Hours of a “Large-Scale Simultaneous Attack” from several different fronts, likely including but not limited to Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Iran, and Yemen.
Intense GPS jamming was activated in central Israel in preparation of an Iranian response. Reportedly locations in Tel Aviv are reading Beirut on GPS systems.
***
Netanyahu to members of Congress: There is an attempt to impose a Palestinian state on us that will turn into a haven for terrorism and attacks on us
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
IDF continued search and destroy operations throughout Gaza while preparing for entry into Rafah as well as preparing for Iranian attacks.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
IAF and artillery continue to conduct strikes throughout S Lebanon in response to Hezbollah attacks.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Considerable rumors of movement of missiles in both Israel and Iran.
The IDF is scrambling GPS in cities including Tel Aviv. Leave has been canceled for combat soldiers and air defense reservists have been called up.
Israel has notified the United States that if Iran makes the decision to target the territory of Israel, then they will be forced to respond.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Israeli security forces conducted numerous raids overnight at multiple locations across the West Bank.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
The Jordanian King and the Saudi Crown Prince: We support the establishment of an independent, sovereign Palestinian state along the lines of June 4, 1967.
——— FORECAST ————————-
biden essentially tossed the American hostages and the nation of Israel under the bus yesterday with his demands of an immediate and unilateral ceasefire based on the incidental deaths of 7 aid workers. This as Israel is close to entering Rafah and is expecting a substantial attack from Iran that could blow the whole region up into war. What biden et al is advocating is the surrender of Israel.
This points to the ever increasing isolation of Israel from the rest of the world, as anti-semitic forces are beginning to win the policy fights. As many note, if Israel capitulates to biden’s demands, its existence will be at even a greater risk than now.
Continued global calls for a two state solution rattle around as well, many calling for 1967 borders - a tactical situation that Israel cannot allow or accept.
Just what Iran’s response to the Damascus will be is hanging over the region. Israel in no uncertain terms has stated that they will hit the territory of Iran if Iran strikes the territory of Israel. The biggest wildcard is what will Hezbollah do? Will they launch the mega rocket barrage that has been threatened for years? It is almost a given that Iranian proxy elements in Syria, Iraq and Yemen will fire what ever assets they have at Israel in conjunction with drones, ballastic and cruise missile from Iran.
New suspected time line is less than 72 hours and with this being the day before Sabbath, a launch over that day carries a high probability .
Iran – HIGH Warning for supported attacks against Israeli and US interests across the globe. Apr 2, 2024
See Israel above for analysis. Clock is ticking and the next 24-48 hours may be decisive for the region.
***
Multiple reports of unidentified flying objects crossing into Iraqi airspace from Iran. Southeast towards Kurdistan. Videos indicate either reentry of space debris or exhaust from cruise missiles as the direction was toward Kurdistan region in Iraq. However, as of my writing there there have been no reports of any missile impacts in the region.
***
An anti-regime militia called Jaish al-Adl (Army of Justice) attacks in South East Iran appear to be over as govt and IRGC forces appear to have regained control. The Jaish al-Adl reportedly did considerable damage to an IRGC ammo dump in the region.
Iran has accused “foreign intelligence services” of launching simultaneous attacks on 5 military and security headquarters in the Iranian cities of Chabahar and Rask.
Turkey –
Turkish President Erdogan on Friday signed an act suspending Ankara’s obligations under the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE Treaty). The act will come into force on April 8
The original Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe was negotiated and concluded during the last years of the Cold War and established comprehensive limits on key categories of conventional military equipment in Europe and mandated the destruction of excess weaponry. The treaty proposed equal limits for the two “groups of states-parties”, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and the Warsaw Pact.
In the midst of ongoing global peril, I am unlikely to post tomorrow. New responsibilities on Sunday mornings will cut into my preparation time too much. I will post breaking info if Iran launches its promised attack against Israel.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Multiple pro-hamas protests on tap in many cities around the country. Uncertain if the events between Israel and Iran are going to catalyze violence.
Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of APR 2, 2024
Ramadan thru about April 8.
Iran has stated US involvement in the Israeli air strike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus. This big hit took out a lot of key IRGC top leaders - the ones Iran would look to in order to manage any Hezbollah war with Israel. Technically, hitting the diplomatic compound constitutes an attack on sovereign territory as well. Iran in the past has launched attacks against US interests globally in response to Israeli strikes. In that Zahedi is the replacement for Suleimani, who was taken out by a US airstrike, this action likely crossed many red lines for Iran.
Retaliation may come in many forms. Physical attacks on US interests globally, concentrated in Europe and Syria/Iraq. Cyber attacks increased probability.
In the US, Iranian terror groups may be activated and conduct terror ops here. Pro-hamas protest supporters may try to utilize this to increase hatred for Jewish interests in the US.
NOTE - there have been no formal terrorism threat alerts from any of the alphabet agencies in Washington. However, events are breaking fast and one may be soon to come.
Economy-
The regime is touting employment numbers of 303,000 new jobs. The breakout of some those numbers (which in the past will likely be downgraded) reportedly are -
- Government jobs added ... 71,000
- Manufacturing jobs added ... 0
- Part time jobs ... 691,000
- Full time jobs ... -6,000
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
USS GEORGE WASHINGTON (CVN 73) deployment announced. The aircraft carrier will deploy to U.S. Southern Command over the next few months—circumnavigating South America with port visits in Brazil, Chile, & Peru—en route to the Indo-Pacific.
The United States, Philippines, Japan, Australia to hold naval drill in South China Sea on Sunday
POLITICAL FRONT –
July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
Many new polls have things looking really bad for biden. Just monitor and don’t bet the bank just yet, the pollsters are harkening to those trying to shape the electoral battlefield.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Biden checks out for another ‘vacation’.
Illegal Immigration –
Tuberculosis cases have been detected at migrant facilities in Chicago following a recent measles outbreak in the city’s shelters, sparking health officials to urgently start contact tracing.
The Chicago Department of Public Health did not disclose the exact number of cases or which shelter it originated from but confirmed that ‘a small number of cases’ were reported ‘in a few different shelters’ around the city.
This comes as Chicago has documented 55 measles cases in the city, a majority of the cases being reported in the Pilsen migrant shelter.
According to CDPH, between 10 percent and 20 percent of people living in Central and South America have latent tuberculosis (TB), an infection that is asymptomatic and not spread to other people. However, you will still test positive for TB even if you are not exhibiting symptoms.
‘Not everyone who acquires TB will develop an active infection. A percentage or folks will actually develop what we call a latent infection. But that latent TB can then reactivate to become active TB at some point in the future,’ said Hazra.
OBSERVATION - Who knows what other diseases have been brought in as well.
China –
The United States, Philippines, Japan, Australia to hold naval drill in South China Sea on Sunday
OBSERVATION - China will not be happy.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Mar 21, 2024.
Russia has taken advantage of Ukrainian ammo shortages, forcing them into primary defensive operations, and has seized the initiative following the fall of Avdiivka. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. The attacks are scattered along the front, concentrating on five axises of attack -
- Avdiivka,
- Maryinka,
- Robotyne,
- Kremenka and
- Bakhmut.
Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.
With the exception of Avdiivka, initial Russia attacks along the other axises have had poor results and exceptionally heavy losses. Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with. In some cases, over 70% of these newer tanks have been destroyed or captured by Ukraine.
In these other attacks, Russia continues to make poor use of fire and maneuver, preferring tank/armor ‘charges’ across open areas and down roads. This brings them into prepared kill zones where these forces are stopped and destroyed.
The most significant change in Russian tactics is on the Avdiivka front, where Russian is doing a much better job of launching what one could consider combined arms attacks.
When Ukraine lacks the artillery, Russian forces are able to penetrate in mass and overwhelm the fewer Ukrainian defenders.
Russian organization and capabilities make it unlikely that they will be able to quickly take advantage of penetrations into Ukrainian defenses. Poor training and lack of leadership at all levels, combined with poor logistic trains, will prevent any major breakouts beyond initial penetration of lines.
Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage. Russia is relying heavily on N Korean artillery rounds and Iranian drone/missiles.
Russian appears to be continuing to shepherd its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2022./23 This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage. Ammo shortages are starting to impact Ukraine ADA defenses.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. Ukraine continues to engage and destroy Russian naval vessels..
While the Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine, early in this winter/spring offensive, Russian has more aggressively conducted CAS in support of ground troops, reflecting ADA shortages. As a result, Russia has been able to locally seize air superiority at key locations along the front - the first time in two years of fighting. This has been at a cost, with a number Su-34/35 aircraft being lost in the last part of February alone as well as critical A50 AWAC systems.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.
Unknowns at this time are how soon ammo supples will start hitting Ukrainian units. Long range ATACMS and German Taurus cruise missiles may be coming on line soon for Ukraine as well as F-16s (now reportedly due in late spring/early summer). But the most critical item is artillery ammo.
*****
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 30-70 range with some local highs into the 70s. No significant precipitation in the forecast.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Fierce fighting continues in the Avdiivka and Bakhumt sectors. The deep war is at a pause for the moment.
Follow-up on yesterday’s massive Ukrainian UAV assault on 4 Russian airbases.
・Su-34 / Su-24/30: 6 destroyed, 8 damaged, 20 soldiers killed/wounded at Morozovsk
・Tu-95: 3 destroyed/damaged, crew of 7 killed at Engels
・Su-25: 2 destroyed at Yeysk
· Results pending at Kursk
One can essentially call the ‘damaged’ planes destroyed as well due to severe limitations on repair parts. These are significant numbers.
An unidentified vessel of the Black Sea Fleet popped off some missiles towards Odesa overnight. Could be a submarine - they have some equipped for that task just like we do.
Russian Territory –
Ukrainian military intelligence claimed to have caused an explosion at oil products pipeline near Azov town of Rostov region.
Outlook —
Fierce fighting is expected to continue along the eastern front, concentrated in the Avdiivka and Bakhumt sectors. These attacks seem to be less and less coordinated and very costly for Russia, with Russia looking to wear down Ukraine defenses by the sheer volume and size of the units in the attack.
Reports of recent attacks have Russian forces lead vehicles being stopped by anti armor fire, causing the attacking column to stop, then all heck breaks out as a turkey shoot ensues. This with glaring evidence of the absence of supporting Russian artillery to suppress Ukrainian fire.
Moldova/Transnistria -
Russian media claims that Ukraine launched a drone into the breakaway republic of Transnistria (legally part of Moldova) and destroyed a military radar station there.
ISRAEL –
Dates to remember -
Ramadan March 11 - April 8
Key overnight developments -
- Hamas says refuses to ‘back down’ on Gaza ceasefire demands
- Reports that Iran will initiate its revenge attacks by the end of Ramadan.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
***
The Israeli military has said it has recovered the body of a hostage from Gaza. The Israeli army said it recovered the body of 47-year-old Elad Katzir overnight in Khan Younis. The IDF and ISA said in a joint statement: “The body of the abductee Elad Katzir, who according to intelligence was murdered in captivity by the Islamic Jihad terrorist organization, was rescued overnight from Khan Yunis and returned to Israeli territory.”
Hamas has rejected western ceasefire offers, says that “Our delegation will head to Cairo tomorrow, Sunday, to hold ceasefire talks in Gaza”
Axios is reporting that the House of Representatives will vote next week on a draft resolution criticizing Biden for calling for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza.
Biden on Friday wrote to the leaders of Egypt and Qatar, calling on them to press Hamas for a hostage deal with Israel, a senior administration official said, … The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said Biden’s national security adviser will meet Monday with family members of some of the estimated 100 hostages who are believed to still be in Gaza.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
IDF continued search and destroy operations throughout Gaza while preparing for entry into Rafah as well as preparing for Iranian attacks.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
IAF and artillery continue to conduct strikes throughout S Lebanon in response to Hezbollah attacks.
Three missiles were launched from southern Lebanon towards Israeli positions near Al-Malikiyah in the Upper Galilee.
IAF fighter jets on Friday evening struck a military compound of the Amal Movement, where a number of its terrorists operated in the area of Marjaayoun in southern Lebanon.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Iran has placed all its armed forces on full high alert and a decision has been made that Iran must respond directly this time to create deterrence, two Iranian officials say - NYT
Iran’s army chief says that US was involved in the attack on its consulate in Damascus, despite Washington clear rejections of these accusation.
Iran said it asked the US to “step aside” as the country prepares a response to a suspected Israeli attack on its consulate in Syria, Bloomberg reports
There is a nasty RUMOR out there that the US cut a deal with Iran. If the US does not intervene to stop the attack, Iran will not attack American forces in Iraq.
U.S. official: U.S. is on high alert in anticipation of an Iranian response to an Israeli raid in Damascus
US has picked up intelligence that Iran is planning a retaliatory attack against Israel that would include a swarm of Shaheed loitering drones and cruise missiles. Officials say the timing and target are unknown, but a proportional response to the Damascus attack would be to hit an Israeli diplomatic facility. The attack is likely to come between now and the end of Ramadan next week
RUMINT. Movement of Iranian-backed militias has been noted in Southwestern Syria towards the border with Lebanon and on the outskirts of Damascus.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Israeli security forces conducted numerous raids overnight at multiple locations across the West Bank.
——— FORECAST ————————-
Clock is ticking on when Iran will pull the tigger and launch its attack. Current intelligence and speculation is that the attack will hit by the end of Ramadan. Again, how involved will Hezbollah get with its thousands of rockets at the ready?
One aspect that is not being looked closely at by some is the limited anti-ballistic missile systems Iran has that will be tasked to protect itself. It has some S300 and S400 systems - and clones, but it suffers from a similar problem Russia has - too many targets and not enough ADA. Second, these systems are largely untested in real combat - in a hostile EW and cyberwar environment they may not hold up well.
Israel has the following cruise and ballistic missiles:
Delilah
EXTRA
Gabriel
Harpoon
Jericho 1
Jericho 2
Jericho 3
LORA
Popeye
Israel has battle proven air defense systems and a much smaller footprint to cover. Just in the first months of the war, Israel’s Arrow system did the first exoatmospheric intercept of a Houthi launched ballistic missile under combat conditions.
At this stage, there are some rumblings about Iran’s nuclear status. There are some that think Iran has a nuclear warhead mountable on its missiles. That is based upon a lot of assumptions and there is no firm evidence. If Iran does and is foolish to try to use it in this attack, dark days will arrive on Iran following a flash of bright light.
Iran is also wanting to keep the US out of the loop. It doesn’t surprise me that they would make the request for us to ‘stand aside’ and not interfere with the attack. What does concern me is the RUMINT that biden may have linked that standing aside to a promise that Iran will not target US assets. That is stabbing Israel in the back.
It appears that the world is working overtime to make the incidental deaths of those food workers into a new holocaust. biden’s threat to totally remove US support if Israel doesn’t immediately and unilaterally institute a ceasefire is echoed around the world. Totally tone deaf to the hostages Hamas et al continue to hold as well as their flat out refusal to any kind of an exchange short of an Israeli surrender.
Which brings me to Rafah. I suspect that the impending Iranian attack may be delaying operations there so that Israel will have the maximum resources as needed for a response to Iran, Hezbollah and any others how join in the attack. Only delay and not stop the assault, though, which may well start after Ramadan.
Iran – HIGH Warning for supported attacks against Israeli and US interests across the globe. Apr 2, 2024
See Israel above for analysis. Clock is ticking and the next 24-48 hours may be decisive for the region.
***
INDICATOR OF IMPENDING ACTION - Iran’s Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces Major General Mohammad Bagheri on the move (based on callsign) out of Tehran to Esfahan/Badr, an airbase used by the IRGCAF.
Syria -
East Syria: ISIS launched last night an attack near Maadan Atiq (SE. Raqqa desert), reaching the N4 Highway. At least 2 pro-Assad fighters were killed. Pace of IS attacks increased, despite regular RuAF & SyAF airstrikes.
Al-Raqqa: ISIS launches an attack on the positions of the government forces in the city of Maadan Atiq, coinciding with the sound of explosions being heard near the Al-Qaws area, west of Deir Ezzor.
OBSERVATION - Syria is facing a renewed threat from ISIS and may well be forced to curtail its attacks in the north against rebels to turn and fact this threat.
Mexico -
The President of Mexico, Andrés Manuel López Obrador has announced the breaking of diplomatic ties with Ecuador, following the storming of the Mexican Embassy in the Capital of Quito earlier tonight by Ecuadorian Special Police to arrest of former-Vice President of Ecuador, Jorge Glas who had been hiding at the Embassy since December.
Central / South America General-
Ecuador’s special forces invaded the Mexican Embassy and captured former Vice President of Ecuador Jorge Glas. Mexico granted asylum to him. Ecuador just declared the Mexican Ambassador persona non grata.
Armenia/Azerbaijan –
Rumors of Armenain military units deploying to the border region with Azerbaijan.