In the midst of ongoing global peril, I am unlikely to post tomorrow. New responsibilities on Sunday mornings will cut into my preparation time too much. I will post breaking info if Iran launches its promised attack against Israel.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Multiple pro-hamas protests on tap in many cities around the country. Uncertain if the events between Israel and Iran are going to catalyze violence.
Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of APR 2, 2024
Ramadan thru about April 8.
Iran has stated US involvement in the Israeli air strike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus. This big hit took out a lot of key IRGC top leaders - the ones Iran would look to in order to manage any Hezbollah war with Israel. Technically, hitting the diplomatic compound constitutes an attack on sovereign territory as well. Iran in the past has launched attacks against US interests globally in response to Israeli strikes. In that Zahedi is the replacement for Suleimani, who was taken out by a US airstrike, this action likely crossed many red lines for Iran.
Retaliation may come in many forms. Physical attacks on US interests globally, concentrated in Europe and Syria/Iraq. Cyber attacks increased probability.
In the US, Iranian terror groups may be activated and conduct terror ops here. Pro-hamas protest supporters may try to utilize this to increase hatred for Jewish interests in the US.
NOTE - there have been no formal terrorism threat alerts from any of the alphabet agencies in Washington. However, events are breaking fast and one may be soon to come.
Economy-
The regime is touting employment numbers of 303,000 new jobs. The breakout of some those numbers (which in the past will likely be downgraded) reportedly are -
- Government jobs added ... 71,000
- Manufacturing jobs added ... 0
- Part time jobs ... 691,000
- Full time jobs ... -6,000
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
USS GEORGE WASHINGTON (CVN 73) deployment announced. The aircraft carrier will deploy to U.S. Southern Command over the next few months—circumnavigating South America with port visits in Brazil, Chile, & Peru—en route to the Indo-Pacific.
The United States, Philippines, Japan, Australia to hold naval drill in South China Sea on Sunday
POLITICAL FRONT –
July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
Many new polls have things looking really bad for biden. Just monitor and don’t bet the bank just yet, the pollsters are harkening to those trying to shape the electoral battlefield.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Biden checks out for another ‘vacation’.
Illegal Immigration –
Tuberculosis cases have been detected at migrant facilities in Chicago following a recent measles outbreak in the city’s shelters, sparking health officials to urgently start contact tracing.
The Chicago Department of Public Health did not disclose the exact number of cases or which shelter it originated from but confirmed that ‘a small number of cases’ were reported ‘in a few different shelters’ around the city.
This comes as Chicago has documented 55 measles cases in the city, a majority of the cases being reported in the Pilsen migrant shelter.
According to CDPH, between 10 percent and 20 percent of people living in Central and South America have latent tuberculosis (TB), an infection that is asymptomatic and not spread to other people. However, you will still test positive for TB even if you are not exhibiting symptoms.
‘Not everyone who acquires TB will develop an active infection. A percentage or folks will actually develop what we call a latent infection. But that latent TB can then reactivate to become active TB at some point in the future,’ said Hazra.
OBSERVATION - Who knows what other diseases have been brought in as well.
China –
The United States, Philippines, Japan, Australia to hold naval drill in South China Sea on Sunday
OBSERVATION - China will not be happy.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Mar 21, 2024.
Russia has taken advantage of Ukrainian ammo shortages, forcing them into primary defensive operations, and has seized the initiative following the fall of Avdiivka. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. The attacks are scattered along the front, concentrating on five axises of attack -
- Avdiivka,
- Maryinka,
- Robotyne,
- Kremenka and
- Bakhmut.
Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.
With the exception of Avdiivka, initial Russia attacks along the other axises have had poor results and exceptionally heavy losses. Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with. In some cases, over 70% of these newer tanks have been destroyed or captured by Ukraine.
In these other attacks, Russia continues to make poor use of fire and maneuver, preferring tank/armor ‘charges’ across open areas and down roads. This brings them into prepared kill zones where these forces are stopped and destroyed.
The most significant change in Russian tactics is on the Avdiivka front, where Russian is doing a much better job of launching what one could consider combined arms attacks.
When Ukraine lacks the artillery, Russian forces are able to penetrate in mass and overwhelm the fewer Ukrainian defenders.
Russian organization and capabilities make it unlikely that they will be able to quickly take advantage of penetrations into Ukrainian defenses. Poor training and lack of leadership at all levels, combined with poor logistic trains, will prevent any major breakouts beyond initial penetration of lines.
Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage. Russia is relying heavily on N Korean artillery rounds and Iranian drone/missiles.
Russian appears to be continuing to shepherd its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2022./23 This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage. Ammo shortages are starting to impact Ukraine ADA defenses.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. Ukraine continues to engage and destroy Russian naval vessels..
While the Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine, early in this winter/spring offensive, Russian has more aggressively conducted CAS in support of ground troops, reflecting ADA shortages. As a result, Russia has been able to locally seize air superiority at key locations along the front - the first time in two years of fighting. This has been at a cost, with a number Su-34/35 aircraft being lost in the last part of February alone as well as critical A50 AWAC systems.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.
Unknowns at this time are how soon ammo supples will start hitting Ukrainian units. Long range ATACMS and German Taurus cruise missiles may be coming on line soon for Ukraine as well as F-16s (now reportedly due in late spring/early summer). But the most critical item is artillery ammo.
*****
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 30-70 range with some local highs into the 70s. No significant precipitation in the forecast.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Fierce fighting continues in the Avdiivka and Bakhumt sectors. The deep war is at a pause for the moment.
Follow-up on yesterday’s massive Ukrainian UAV assault on 4 Russian airbases.
・Su-34 / Su-24/30: 6 destroyed, 8 damaged, 20 soldiers killed/wounded at Morozovsk
・Tu-95: 3 destroyed/damaged, crew of 7 killed at Engels
・Su-25: 2 destroyed at Yeysk
· Results pending at Kursk
One can essentially call the ‘damaged’ planes destroyed as well due to severe limitations on repair parts. These are significant numbers.
An unidentified vessel of the Black Sea Fleet popped off some missiles towards Odesa overnight. Could be a submarine - they have some equipped for that task just like we do.
Russian Territory –
Ukrainian military intelligence claimed to have caused an explosion at oil products pipeline near Azov town of Rostov region.
Outlook —
Fierce fighting is expected to continue along the eastern front, concentrated in the Avdiivka and Bakhumt sectors. These attacks seem to be less and less coordinated and very costly for Russia, with Russia looking to wear down Ukraine defenses by the sheer volume and size of the units in the attack.
Reports of recent attacks have Russian forces lead vehicles being stopped by anti armor fire, causing the attacking column to stop, then all heck breaks out as a turkey shoot ensues. This with glaring evidence of the absence of supporting Russian artillery to suppress Ukrainian fire.
Moldova/Transnistria -
Russian media claims that Ukraine launched a drone into the breakaway republic of Transnistria (legally part of Moldova) and destroyed a military radar station there.
ISRAEL –
Dates to remember -
Ramadan March 11 - April 8
Key overnight developments -
- Hamas says refuses to ‘back down’ on Gaza ceasefire demands
- Reports that Iran will initiate its revenge attacks by the end of Ramadan.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
***
The Israeli military has said it has recovered the body of a hostage from Gaza. The Israeli army said it recovered the body of 47-year-old Elad Katzir overnight in Khan Younis. The IDF and ISA said in a joint statement: “The body of the abductee Elad Katzir, who according to intelligence was murdered in captivity by the Islamic Jihad terrorist organization, was rescued overnight from Khan Yunis and returned to Israeli territory.”
Hamas has rejected western ceasefire offers, says that “Our delegation will head to Cairo tomorrow, Sunday, to hold ceasefire talks in Gaza”
Axios is reporting that the House of Representatives will vote next week on a draft resolution criticizing Biden for calling for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza.
Biden on Friday wrote to the leaders of Egypt and Qatar, calling on them to press Hamas for a hostage deal with Israel, a senior administration official said, … The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said Biden’s national security adviser will meet Monday with family members of some of the estimated 100 hostages who are believed to still be in Gaza.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
IDF continued search and destroy operations throughout Gaza while preparing for entry into Rafah as well as preparing for Iranian attacks.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
IAF and artillery continue to conduct strikes throughout S Lebanon in response to Hezbollah attacks.
Three missiles were launched from southern Lebanon towards Israeli positions near Al-Malikiyah in the Upper Galilee.
IAF fighter jets on Friday evening struck a military compound of the Amal Movement, where a number of its terrorists operated in the area of Marjaayoun in southern Lebanon.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Iran has placed all its armed forces on full high alert and a decision has been made that Iran must respond directly this time to create deterrence, two Iranian officials say - NYT
Iran’s army chief says that US was involved in the attack on its consulate in Damascus, despite Washington clear rejections of these accusation.
Iran said it asked the US to “step aside” as the country prepares a response to a suspected Israeli attack on its consulate in Syria, Bloomberg reports
There is a nasty RUMOR out there that the US cut a deal with Iran. If the US does not intervene to stop the attack, Iran will not attack American forces in Iraq.
U.S. official: U.S. is on high alert in anticipation of an Iranian response to an Israeli raid in Damascus
US has picked up intelligence that Iran is planning a retaliatory attack against Israel that would include a swarm of Shaheed loitering drones and cruise missiles. Officials say the timing and target are unknown, but a proportional response to the Damascus attack would be to hit an Israeli diplomatic facility. The attack is likely to come between now and the end of Ramadan next week
RUMINT. Movement of Iranian-backed militias has been noted in Southwestern Syria towards the border with Lebanon and on the outskirts of Damascus.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Israeli security forces conducted numerous raids overnight at multiple locations across the West Bank.
——— FORECAST ————————-
Clock is ticking on when Iran will pull the tigger and launch its attack. Current intelligence and speculation is that the attack will hit by the end of Ramadan. Again, how involved will Hezbollah get with its thousands of rockets at the ready?
One aspect that is not being looked closely at by some is the limited anti-ballistic missile systems Iran has that will be tasked to protect itself. It has some S300 and S400 systems - and clones, but it suffers from a similar problem Russia has - too many targets and not enough ADA. Second, these systems are largely untested in real combat - in a hostile EW and cyberwar environment they may not hold up well.
Israel has the following cruise and ballistic missiles:
Delilah
EXTRA
Gabriel
Harpoon
Jericho 1
Jericho 2
Jericho 3
LORA
Popeye
Israel has battle proven air defense systems and a much smaller footprint to cover. Just in the first months of the war, Israel’s Arrow system did the first exoatmospheric intercept of a Houthi launched ballistic missile under combat conditions.
At this stage, there are some rumblings about Iran’s nuclear status. There are some that think Iran has a nuclear warhead mountable on its missiles. That is based upon a lot of assumptions and there is no firm evidence. If Iran does and is foolish to try to use it in this attack, dark days will arrive on Iran following a flash of bright light.
Iran is also wanting to keep the US out of the loop. It doesn’t surprise me that they would make the request for us to ‘stand aside’ and not interfere with the attack. What does concern me is the RUMINT that biden may have linked that standing aside to a promise that Iran will not target US assets. That is stabbing Israel in the back.
It appears that the world is working overtime to make the incidental deaths of those food workers into a new holocaust. biden’s threat to totally remove US support if Israel doesn’t immediately and unilaterally institute a ceasefire is echoed around the world. Totally tone deaf to the hostages Hamas et al continue to hold as well as their flat out refusal to any kind of an exchange short of an Israeli surrender.
Which brings me to Rafah. I suspect that the impending Iranian attack may be delaying operations there so that Israel will have the maximum resources as needed for a response to Iran, Hezbollah and any others how join in the attack. Only delay and not stop the assault, though, which may well start after Ramadan.
Iran – HIGH Warning for supported attacks against Israeli and US interests across the globe. Apr 2, 2024
See Israel above for analysis. Clock is ticking and the next 24-48 hours may be decisive for the region.
***
INDICATOR OF IMPENDING ACTION - Iran’s Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces Major General Mohammad Bagheri on the move (based on callsign) out of Tehran to Esfahan/Badr, an airbase used by the IRGCAF.
Syria -
East Syria: ISIS launched last night an attack near Maadan Atiq (SE. Raqqa desert), reaching the N4 Highway. At least 2 pro-Assad fighters were killed. Pace of IS attacks increased, despite regular RuAF & SyAF airstrikes.
Al-Raqqa: ISIS launches an attack on the positions of the government forces in the city of Maadan Atiq, coinciding with the sound of explosions being heard near the Al-Qaws area, west of Deir Ezzor.
OBSERVATION - Syria is facing a renewed threat from ISIS and may well be forced to curtail its attacks in the north against rebels to turn and fact this threat.
Mexico -
The President of Mexico, Andrés Manuel López Obrador has announced the breaking of diplomatic ties with Ecuador, following the storming of the Mexican Embassy in the Capital of Quito earlier tonight by Ecuadorian Special Police to arrest of former-Vice President of Ecuador, Jorge Glas who had been hiding at the Embassy since December.
Central / South America General-
Ecuador’s special forces invaded the Mexican Embassy and captured former Vice President of Ecuador Jorge Glas. Mexico granted asylum to him. Ecuador just declared the Mexican Ambassador persona non grata.
Armenia/Azerbaijan –
Rumors of Armenain military units deploying to the border region with Azerbaijan.
Iran’s army chief says that US was involved in the attack on its consulate in Damascus, despite Washington clear rejections of these accusation.
Iran said it asked the US to “step aside” as the country prepares a response to a suspected Israeli attack on its consulate in Syria, Bloomberg reports
There is a nasty RUMOR out there that the US cut a deal with Iran. If the US does not intervene to stop the attack, Iran will not attack American forces in Iraq. U.S. official: U.S. is on high alert in anticipation of an Iranian response to an Israeli raid in Damascus
US has picked up intelligence that Iran is planning a retaliatory attack against Israel that would include a swarm of Shaheed loitering drones and cruise missiles. Officials say the timing and target are unknown, but a proportional response to the Damascus attack would be to hit an Israeli diplomatic facility. The attack is likely to come between now and the end of Ramadan next week
RUMINT. Movement of Iranian-backed militias has been noted in Southwestern Syria towards the border with Lebanon and on the outskirts of Damascus.
Any sign some of the thousands of Iranians who 'crossed the border' illegally into the US are mobilizing?
What a crazy 48 hours. In a way glad I didn’t post yesterday, as I would have spent more time today retracing my steps on a number of items.
Today is the big eclipse day. Will the world end (/sarc).
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Anti-Israel protesters in Dearborn, Michigan, closed out Ramadan by chanting, “Death to America” and “Death to Israel,” during an International Al-Quds Day rally.
Video of the protest went viral on social media Sunday, showing activists condemning both Israel and America in the harshest of terms. Activist Tarek Bazzi of the Hadi Institute said chants of “Death to America” and “Death to Israel” were only logical.
OBSERVATION - This growing aspect of future CW2 scenarios - islamic uprisings has been inflamed by the recent Gaza war. One need only to look to Europe to see the impacts of the flipping of the European culture to that of Islam. The upper midwest is ground zero for the invasion and it has grown to other major metro areas - bolstered by the usual white liberal suspects.
Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of APR 8, 2024
Ramadan ending
The FBI and Homeland Security are increasingly worried about threats from ISIS and “lone wolves” in the U.S.
The intel bulletin specifically warns people to be cautious at “mass gatherings such as sports stadiums, concert venues, or houses of worship in the United States.”
Of particular note - U.S. intelligence officials are warning of violence targeting mass gatherings days before millions gather to watch the eclipse.
The warning is reportedly similar to the one U.S. officials gave in Russia on March 7, warning U.S. citizens to stay away from large gatherings for 48 hours due to “imminent plans” from extremists.
However, there are no official National Terrorism Advisory System (NTAS) alerts posted on this threat.
***
Iran has stated US involvement in the Israeli air strike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus. This big hit took out a lot of key IRGC top leaders - the ones Iran would look to in order to manage any Hezbollah war with Israel. Technically, hitting the diplomatic compound constitutes an attack on sovereign territory as well. Iran in the past has launched attacks against US interests globally in response to Israeli strikes. In that Zahedi is the replacement for Suleimani, who was taken out by a US airstrike, this action likely crossed many red lines for Iran.
Retaliation may come in many forms. Physical attacks on US interests globally, concentrated in Europe and Syria/Iraq. Cyber attacks increased probability.
In the US, Iranian terror groups may be activated and conduct terror ops here. Pro-hamas protest supporters may try to utilize this to increase hatred for Jewish interests in the US.
NOTE - there have been no formal terrorism threat alerts from any of the alphabet agencies in Washington. However, events are breaking fast and one may be soon to come.
Economy-
Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman said Friday that it’s possible interest rates may have to move higher to control inflation, rather than the cuts her fellow officials have indicated are likely and that the market is expecting.
Noting a number of potential upside risks to inflation, Bowman said policymakers need to be careful not to ease policy too quickly.
“While it is not my baseline outlook, I continue to see the risk that at a future meeting we may need to increase the policy rate further should progress on inflation stall or even reverse,” she said in prepared remarks for a speech to a group of Fed watchers in New York. “Reducing our policy rate too soon or too quickly could result in a rebound in inflation, requiring further future policy rate increases to return inflation to 2 percent over the longer run.”
OBSERVATION - A CYA move by some on the Fed board?
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
In an effort to push back China’s influence and expand its presence in Oceania, the U.S. is renovating Lombrum Naval Base on the Island of Los Negros in Papua New Guinea.
The U.S. recently announced that the U.S. Navy is looking at three projects for Lombrum: a 7,556-square-foot Regional Maritime Training Center; a 7,351-square-foot small Boat Team and Boson Facility; and overhauling a 118-foot-long deteriorated small boat jetty. The combined expected price tag for these projects ranges from $11 million to $25 million.
“These…projects will support the PNGDF (Papua New Guinea Defence Force), maritime security operations, U.S. military personnel participating in joint exercises, and USINDOPACOM Theater Campaign Plan with various critical facilities located at Lombrum Naval Base.” reads the announcement.
The U.S. announced plans to redevelop Lombrum naval base in 2018, when former Vice President Mike Pence, announced that the U.S. would partner with both Australia and Papua New Guinea on the initiative.
Currently, Lombrum naval base is one of six facilities on Papua New Guinea to which U.S. personnel have an unimpeded access under the Defense Cooperation Agreement signed between Washington and Port Moresby in 2023.
https://news.usni.org/2024/04/06/u-s-set-to-expand-naval-base-in-papua-new-guinea
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –
Another study, this time by Pfizer affiliated researchers, indicates a substantially increased risk of spontaneous miscarriages/abortions following the jab for pregnant women. This correlation was know as far back as 2020, but was kept swept under the rug. Even this report the ‘researchers’ do all they can to try to separate the jab from the miscarriages/abortions.
POLITICAL FRONT –
July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
A group of white farmers in Texas is asking a federal judge to block the U.S. Department of Agriculture from using race, gender or other “socially disadvantaged” traits to determine who gets disaster and pandemic farm aid and how much, arguing the agency’s current administration of eight emergency funding programs is unconstitutionally discriminatory.
A group of white farmers in Texas is asking a federal judge to block the U.S. Department of Agriculture from using race, gender or other “socially disadvantaged” traits to determine who gets disaster and pandemic farm aid and how much, arguing the agency’s current administration of eight emergency funding programs is unconstitutionally discriminatory.
“When natural disasters strike, they don’t discriminate based on race and sex. Neither should the Department of Agriculture,” the group of farmers wrote in a court filing made public Monday.
The farmers, represented the nonprofit legal firm called the Southeastern Legal Foundation, asked a judge to issue an emergency injunction from the U.S. District Court in Amarillo, Texas, to stop any additional awards from being made on the basis of race and gender or other liberal standards.
“Enjoining USDA from using race, sex, or progressive factoring when administering the programs is warranted because Plaintiffs are likely to succeed on the merits of their claims that: (1) the programs, as currently administered, are unconstitutional; (2) USDA lacks statutory authority to run the programs in their current form; and (3) USDA failed to adequately explain changes in calculating payments when implementing progressive factoring,” the motion stated.
The farmers said the Biden administration has taken roughly $25 billion in disaster and pandemic aid approved by Congress for farmers in eight programs and devised a system to make awards based on race, gender or other “socially disadvantaged” traits. Such decision-making violates the Constitution’s Fifth Amendment and the Administrative Procedures Act.
“The Constitution promises equal treatment to all Americans regardless of their race or sex,” the court filing also reads. “It also promises the separation of powers. USDA broke both promises through the disaster and pandemic relief programs challenged here.”
OBSERVATION - Preferential treatment = buying votes. Also linkage to CW2 as the govt is purposefully trying to put a wedge in between blacks and whites.
Illegal Immigration –
The Governor of Texas is sounding the alarm about a potential “drone war” erupting between the US and Mexican cartels across the border.
Gov. Abbott:
“Let me foreshadow also another concern we’re gonna have really soon, it’s already kind of beginning right now, and that’s gonna be drone wars.
The capability of the cartels about getting things across the border through drones already is extraordinary and they’re gonna be more aggressive, more sophisticated in the drone attacks.”
Source: Newsweek
OBSERVATION - This is also linked to Terrorism and CW2 topics as well. biden et al have basically surrendered the border region to cartels and those cartels are starting to fight each other for control.
China –
Six warships and four aircraft from Australia, Japan, the Philippines, and the United States conducted a joint patrol in the South China Sea on Sunday following Chinese harassment of Philippine Navy resupply missions in the region.
Officially dubbed the Australia – Japan – Philippines – United States Maritime Cooperative Activity, these joint patrols began last November in response to violent incidents between Manila and Beijing in the South China Sea, particularly around Scarborough Shoal and the resupply missions to BRP Sierra Madre (LT-57) at Second Thomas Shoal.
Sunday’s joint patrol not only marks the first combined multinational patrol but also the first time Japanese vessels and aircraft participated. Tokyo and Manila have expanded their defense ties over the last year, most notably through trilateral exchanges with the U.S. and the provision of naval radars to the Philippine Navy via Japan’s new military aid program. According to the Financial Times, the Philippines, Japan, and the U.S. are expected to strengthen their security cooperation during this week’s trilateral summit in Washington.
Alongside the number of involved nations, the joint patrol also included the most assets to date. Warships included Littoral Combat Ship USS Mobile (LCS-26), HMAS Warramunga (FFH-152), JS Akebono (DD-108), BRP Gregorio Del Pilar (PS-15), BRP Antonio Luna (FF-151) and BRP Valentin Diaz (PS-177). Shipborne helicopters as well as Two P-8 Poseidon aircraft from Australia and the U.S. were also involved.
OBSERVATION - I posted this exercise a couple days ago, this brings more information on the size and extent. This is a growing shot across the bow of China and its aggressive tactics in the South China Sea region.
North/South Korea –
North Korea said Friday it had carried out a test of an underwater nuclear weapons system, claiming it was facing severe security threats from the allies. Claim was made by Kim Son Gyong, North Korea’s deputy minister of foreign affairs, as cited by the North’s state-run Korean Central News Agency on Monday.
OBSERVATION - There is no reported evidence of such a subsurface nuclear test being reported by either SK or Japan. It is likely referring to a recent announcement that NK has developed a torpedo shaped drone capable of carrying a nuclear warhead.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Mar 21, 2024.
Russia has taken advantage of Ukrainian ammo shortages, forcing them into primary defensive operations, and has seized the initiative following the fall of Avdiivka. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. The attacks are scattered along the front, concentrating on five axises of attack -
- Avdiivka,
- Maryinka,
- Robotyne,
- Kremenka and
- Bakhmut.
Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.
With the exception of Avdiivka, initial Russia attacks along the other axises have had poor results and exceptionally heavy losses. Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with. In some cases, over 70% of these newer tanks have been destroyed or captured by Ukraine.
In these other attacks, Russia continues to make poor use of fire and maneuver, preferring tank/armor ‘charges’ across open areas and down roads. This brings them into prepared kill zones where these forces are stopped and destroyed.
The most significant change in Russian tactics is on the Avdiivka front, where Russian is doing a much better job of launching what one could consider combined arms attacks.
When Ukraine lacks the artillery, Russian forces are able to penetrate in mass and overwhelm the fewer Ukrainian defenders.
Russian organization and capabilities make it unlikely that they will be able to quickly take advantage of penetrations into Ukrainian defenses. Poor training and lack of leadership at all levels, combined with poor logistic trains, will prevent any major breakouts beyond initial penetration of lines.
Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage. Russia is relying heavily on N Korean artillery rounds and Iranian drone/missiles.
Russian appears to be continuing to shepherd its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2022./23 This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage. Ammo shortages are starting to impact Ukraine ADA defenses.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. Ukraine continues to engage and destroy Russian naval vessels..
While the Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine, early in this winter/spring offensive, Russian has more aggressively conducted CAS in support of ground troops, reflecting ADA shortages. As a result, Russia has been able to locally seize air superiority at key locations along the front - the first time in two years of fighting. This has been at a cost, with a number Su-34/35 aircraft being lost in the last part of February alone as well as critical A50 AWAC systems.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.
Unknowns at this time are how soon ammo supples will start hitting Ukrainian units. Long range ATACMS and German Taurus cruise missiles may be coming on line soon for Ukraine as well as F-16s (now reportedly due in late spring/early summer). But the most critical item is artillery ammo.
*****
Pacific Fleet warships are starting to arrive in the Mediterranean with increased activity of the Admiral Grigorovich, Ufa and Kildin. These vessels were noted last week passing though the Red Sea region.
Logistics –
The ongoing floodings in the Russian city of Orsk, Region Orenburg, which were caused by collapsing dams, rendered the local oil refinery (Orsknefteorgsintez) inoperable. Orsk oil refinery is the only one in the Orenburg Region with a design capacity of 36 million barrels of oil per year
Russian Personnel Issues –-
Although Russia is suffering severe losses in its current offensive in eastern Ukraine, it appears to be currently able to sustain those losses thru growth of conscription efforts. However, analysts suggest that those efforts may soon be grinding to a halt as they run out of easily conscriptable people.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 30-70 range with some local highs into the 80s. No significant precipitation in the forecast.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down 17 of 24 Shahed drone, launched by Russia overnight. Odesa, Krynky, and Zaporizhzhia appear to be targeted regions with some hits.
Fierce fighting continues to be reported on the Avdiivka and Bakhmut fronts.
Kharkiv continues to be hammered by artillery, missiles and glide bombs.
IAEA experts confirmed physical impact of drone attacks at ZNPP today, including at 1 of its 6 reactors. One casualty reported. Damage at unit 6 has not compromised nuclear safety, but this is a serious incident with potential to undermine integrity of the reactor’s containment system. Both sides claim it was the others drones that hit the power plant.
Outlook —
Kharkiv is facing the devastation due to shortage of ADA assets. It has been largely without power for more than a week and Russia is not picky about what it hits - mostly civilian apartment complexes and other sites like stores. Kharkiv may also be facing NK ballistic missiles shipped to Russia for use and testing.
Continued good weather for the next couple weeks indicates that the hard Russia armored push in the east is far from over. Russia continues to shoot its self in the foot by charging into armor kill zones with an abundance of mines and lacking artillery support to suppress Ukraine AT fire. Drones and diminished Ukrainian artillery is capable of dispatching Russians that survive the anti-armor hits.
These attacks are generally at a company sized level, though battalion sized assaults have occurred in the past few weeks. They also appear to be solo operations, with no coordinated supporting attacks, just charging across the open fields hoping to get to the other side to offload infantry and get back.
Generally, things have stalled out across the rest of the fronts. The deep war is at a pause as well as Russia may be considering moving their now vulnerable strategic bomber forces even further to the east to get out of range of the new Ukraine long range drones. Absent Black Sea support, the strategic bomber forces have been bearing the brunt of the deep attacks lately.
Innovation of weapons systems are at a much higher pace. Reports of wider deployment of Ukraine jet powered drones is catching the new too. These drones fly very fast and low, making it difficult for ADA guns to hit and forcing ADA units to use previous missiles to attempt to hit them. I expect to see these become even more of a factor in hitting western portions of Russia.
I don’t see any current sector facing imminent collapse from the Russian offensive. It may well have to continue to locally give up terrain, but Russia is having to pay a high price for its gains.
ISRAEL –
Dates to remember -
Ramadan March 11 - April 8
Key overnight developments -
- War is entering its 7th month
- IDF pulling most of its forces out of Gaza
- Rumors of intense US pressures for both sides to agree to a more substantive ceasefire and hostage release.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
***
Reports in Israeli media early Monday morning indicate that significant progress in a hostage release deal in Cairo may have been reached.
N12 News reported “cautious optimism” regarding negotiations as the Israeli delegation returns from Egypt with the latest details. An Egyptian source reported that all sides are close to agreement on the terms of the final deal. The Egyptian state-affiliated Al-Qahera news channel reported that there was broad agreement on the basic points of a deal.
However, soon after those reports were published, a senior Israeli source told the news outlet that a deal may not be imminent, stating: “The distance is still great.”
***
There is reportedly evidence that Hamas tricked Israel into hitting the convoy carrying cooks for relief operations in Gaza. This will have little bearing on the current outcry, but if better substantiate, could get some of the PR bleeding under control.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
The IDF on Sunday announced that it had concluded the active invasion stage of the war for now while leaving open the possibility of a future new invasion of Rafah in deep southern Gaza.
In terms of IDF soldiers, this means that the IDF has withdrawn all of Division 98 from Khan Yunis in southern Gaza while maintaining one plus brigades - the Nahal brigade and portions of Brigade 401 – in northern and central Gaza.
Although a top IDF official said that this change had nothing to do with US pressure, the timing was unmistakable in coming right after the IDF’s disastrous mistaken killing of seven humanitarian aid workers last week.
The decision also came less than two days after Israel opened the Erez Crossing and Ashdod port to transfer humanitarian aid, decisions made under threat by the US of potentially losing weapons support after Jerusalem had refused these requests from Washington for months.
Critically, this means that Palestinians can, on one hand, move freely within southern Gaza and Khan Yunis and that there is a complete vacuum for preventing a return of Hamas governance, but the IDF is keeping northern and central Gaza cut off from the south.
https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-795724
The Israel Defense Forces says it has “declined” the number of its forces in southern Gaza as it regroups for its next stage in the war
Israeli army Chief of Staff Halevi notes that “we are far from finishing” the war in Gaza. He adds that there are still plenty of forces in Gaza and that a war this long can’t involve the same amount of forces at all times
Gallant states that forces are preparing for “follow-up missions”, similar to the one carried out in Shifa Hospital wherever needed, including in Rafah
Haaretz, citing military officials: The army’s withdrawal from combat sites in the southern Gaza Strip was due to combat fatigue and not as signs of good faith toward the prisoner exchange deal negotiations.
***
The discussions between Israeli and US officials regarding an Israeli advance into Rafah are set to continue this week.
The talks are expected to be held on the professional level, while only next week, if at all, the Israeli delegation, which will probably consist of Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer and National Security Council head Tzachi Hanegbi, will leave.
Diplomatic sources predicted in a conversation with Kan Resht Bet radio that no action would be taken concerning Rafah until the discussions with the Americans ended.
It was further reported that the operation in Rafah would depend on whether a hostage deal is reached. Yesterday, Mossad Director David Barnea spoke and Shin Bet Director Ronen Bar met with CIA Director Burns and the Qatari Prime Minister. Before their meeting, the Hamas delegation met with the mediators.
https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/388106
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
IAF and artillery continue to conduct strikes throughout S Lebanon in response to Hezbollah attacks.
Jerusalem Post: The Israeli army is conducting a major maneuver along the coast and in the Western Galilee in northern Israel this morning to prepare for fighting on different fronts.
Israeli Chief of Staff: We are preparing for the possibility of war breaking out with Lebanon
***
Three people killed, including a field commander in Hezbollah’s elite Radwan Force, in an Israeli strike on Al Sultanya village in southern Lebanon, according to several sources.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Iran reportedly has conveyed a message to America via Oman; threatening to directly attack Israel unless the war in Gaza is halted, displaced people return, and the army withdraws.
***
A report in Jadeh Iran News quoted an unnamed source stating that Iran told the United States it would refrain from retaliating against Israel over the killing of IRGC senior commander Mohammed Zahedi if a ceasefire agreement is reached during negotiations.
Analysts from both Iran and Israel suggest that Iran is hesitant to retaliate against Israel, fearing such actions could lead to further escalation.
https://www.newsmax.com/world/globaltalk/israel-hostage-deal/2024/04/08/id/1160111/
———WEST BANK——————————-
Israeli security forces conducted numerous raids overnight at multiple locations across the West Bank.
Security forces arrested at least 23 people in several towns in Hebron in the West Bank
——— FORECAST ————————-
One moment Israel is poised to enter Rafah, the next they are pulling out of Gaza leaving one brigade to prevent south to north movement.
Israeli and Iranian forces on high alert for war and now rumors that Iran is backing off in order not to disrupt ceasefire talks.
IDK, I don’t think biden has the clout to force these actions by both countries. So what do I think at this stage?
The Gaza pullout make sense in the face of a potential hot war with Iran and Hezbollah. They have Hamas pretty well contained in Rafah and the recent Shifa Hospital operation has Israel sensing that they can get more bang for their buck by launching lighting raids on Hamas concentration that they feel ‘safe’ in. The units pulled out will have some rest, refit and rearm time and likely serve as a ready reserve force for any action against Hezbollah.
Iran appears to be attempting to weasel out of an attack on Israel proper, probably now looking at hitting Israeli embassies and interests in other parts of the world. They probably looked at the tea leaves and realized they don’t have the ADA assets in the quantities and capabilities to adequately defend against an Israeli counter strike. The goodwill ‘gesture’ under the guise of not wanting to affect any of the ongoing ceasefire talks is likely a smokescreen for its public consumption to cover inaction.
Did the biden policy change of recent have any influence? Possibly on the short term. The leverage was the death of the aid workers, now questionably have been used by Hamas to generate such an attack. But that will be short lived, like the hospital uproars. Israel clearly states that Rafah is still in the bulls eye and that the current withdrawal of troops from Gaza is also serving to prepare them to go into Rafah.
So what’s for forecast now?
I expect IDF to continue strikes via air and artillery against Hezbollah positions and Hezbollah to continue sniping at Israel.
Gaza ground action will decline to a degree, but naval, air and artillery fire based on near constant air surveillance and HUMINT will continue to hit identified Hamas targets should they get overconfident that they have ‘won’ and come out of hiding.
The “Islamic Resistance” remains relatively quiet, pending final Iranian/Hezbollah actions.
Yes, the wild card continues to be Iran. It would not be beyond them to issue the declaration that they are not going to hit Israel only to hit Israel - strategic lying is a major component of islam. With Ramadan now over, any constraints from that holiday are over, so this next week is the fish or cut bait moment.
If Iran continues to stand down and the ceasfire/hostage talks break down (and Hamas shows no interest in lowering their demands), I expect that Israel will then make the next step and take out Rafah. Right now the gross global political climate is pushing hard for a ceasefire - regardless of hostage release . When Hamas rejects or demands outrageous concessions that Israel will not agree to, game on in Rafah.
Iran – HIGH Warning for supported attacks against Israeli and US interests across the globe. Apr 2, 2024
See Israel above for analysis. Clock is ticking and the next week may be decisive for the region.
***
Heavy Fighting is being reported between several Groups of Unknown Gunmen and IRGC Security Forces near the Department of Intelligence within the city of Chah Bahar in Southeastern Iran, with sirens also sounding at the Naval Base in the city.
OBSERVATION — Appears to be a continuation of the scattered fighting reported a few days ago.
Misc of Note –
Enjoy the eclipse if you can. One word about cloud cover, in 1997 when I observed my first total eclipse in SW Montana, the sky was partly overcast - and that worked to our advantage permitting us to observe the initial stages of the eclipse using the clouds as a filter to protect our eyes. Just minutes before totality, the sky cleared and we got an unobscured view of the eclipse. So enjoy.
***
Airliner incidents with parts flying off and other issues are climbing to a level of beyond background noise. Yesterday a cowling on a 737 blew off at takeoff, requiring an emergency landing. With the high visibility of such incidents now on the multiple times per week scale, ground operations for major airlines almost have to be increasingly anal over properly securing and checking the planes out. Only the growing perception is that they aren’t.
Now we have another large cargo ship losing power as it approaches a major bridge. Coincidence? Or is this the potential beginning of a lot of small wrenches being tossed into the gears of key sectors - air transportation and shipping.
For those who’ve followed here over the years, I’m cautious when going down these rabbit holes. In todays modern technology with everyone having a cell phone/camera and such wide spread outlets for ‘news’, the increase in reports may not equal an actual increase above historic instances - because it wasn’t reported.
So IMHO, the boeing airliner incidents are on the verge of crossing out of tinfoil hat into deserving to be followed and examined more closely. The latest shipping incident should be examined very closely and quickly in order to prevent further loss of power incidents at key bridges crossing over harbor entrances. Perhaps an increased requirement for accompanying tug boats for instance until into open water as an example.