What a crazy 48 hours. In a way glad I didn’t post yesterday, as I would have spent more time today retracing my steps on a number of items.
Today is the big eclipse day. Will the world end (/sarc).
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Anti-Israel protesters in Dearborn, Michigan, closed out Ramadan by chanting, “Death to America” and “Death to Israel,” during an International Al-Quds Day rally.
Video of the protest went viral on social media Sunday, showing activists condemning both Israel and America in the harshest of terms. Activist Tarek Bazzi of the Hadi Institute said chants of “Death to America” and “Death to Israel” were only logical.
OBSERVATION - This growing aspect of future CW2 scenarios - islamic uprisings has been inflamed by the recent Gaza war. One need only to look to Europe to see the impacts of the flipping of the European culture to that of Islam. The upper midwest is ground zero for the invasion and it has grown to other major metro areas - bolstered by the usual white liberal suspects.
Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of APR 8, 2024
Ramadan ending
The FBI and Homeland Security are increasingly worried about threats from ISIS and “lone wolves” in the U.S.
The intel bulletin specifically warns people to be cautious at “mass gatherings such as sports stadiums, concert venues, or houses of worship in the United States.”
Of particular note - U.S. intelligence officials are warning of violence targeting mass gatherings days before millions gather to watch the eclipse.
The warning is reportedly similar to the one U.S. officials gave in Russia on March 7, warning U.S. citizens to stay away from large gatherings for 48 hours due to “imminent plans” from extremists.
However, there are no official National Terrorism Advisory System (NTAS) alerts posted on this threat.
***
Iran has stated US involvement in the Israeli air strike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus. This big hit took out a lot of key IRGC top leaders - the ones Iran would look to in order to manage any Hezbollah war with Israel. Technically, hitting the diplomatic compound constitutes an attack on sovereign territory as well. Iran in the past has launched attacks against US interests globally in response to Israeli strikes. In that Zahedi is the replacement for Suleimani, who was taken out by a US airstrike, this action likely crossed many red lines for Iran.
Retaliation may come in many forms. Physical attacks on US interests globally, concentrated in Europe and Syria/Iraq. Cyber attacks increased probability.
In the US, Iranian terror groups may be activated and conduct terror ops here. Pro-hamas protest supporters may try to utilize this to increase hatred for Jewish interests in the US.
NOTE - there have been no formal terrorism threat alerts from any of the alphabet agencies in Washington. However, events are breaking fast and one may be soon to come.
Economy-
Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman said Friday that it’s possible interest rates may have to move higher to control inflation, rather than the cuts her fellow officials have indicated are likely and that the market is expecting.
Noting a number of potential upside risks to inflation, Bowman said policymakers need to be careful not to ease policy too quickly.
“While it is not my baseline outlook, I continue to see the risk that at a future meeting we may need to increase the policy rate further should progress on inflation stall or even reverse,” she said in prepared remarks for a speech to a group of Fed watchers in New York. “Reducing our policy rate too soon or too quickly could result in a rebound in inflation, requiring further future policy rate increases to return inflation to 2 percent over the longer run.”
OBSERVATION - A CYA move by some on the Fed board?
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
In an effort to push back China’s influence and expand its presence in Oceania, the U.S. is renovating Lombrum Naval Base on the Island of Los Negros in Papua New Guinea.
The U.S. recently announced that the U.S. Navy is looking at three projects for Lombrum: a 7,556-square-foot Regional Maritime Training Center; a 7,351-square-foot small Boat Team and Boson Facility; and overhauling a 118-foot-long deteriorated small boat jetty. The combined expected price tag for these projects ranges from $11 million to $25 million.
“These…projects will support the PNGDF (Papua New Guinea Defence Force), maritime security operations, U.S. military personnel participating in joint exercises, and USINDOPACOM Theater Campaign Plan with various critical facilities located at Lombrum Naval Base.” reads the announcement.
The U.S. announced plans to redevelop Lombrum naval base in 2018, when former Vice President Mike Pence, announced that the U.S. would partner with both Australia and Papua New Guinea on the initiative.
Currently, Lombrum naval base is one of six facilities on Papua New Guinea to which U.S. personnel have an unimpeded access under the Defense Cooperation Agreement signed between Washington and Port Moresby in 2023.
https://news.usni.org/2024/04/06/u-s-set-to-expand-naval-base-in-papua-new-guinea
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –
Another study, this time by Pfizer affiliated researchers, indicates a substantially increased risk of spontaneous miscarriages/abortions following the jab for pregnant women. This correlation was know as far back as 2020, but was kept swept under the rug. Even this report the ‘researchers’ do all they can to try to separate the jab from the miscarriages/abortions.
POLITICAL FRONT –
July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
A group of white farmers in Texas is asking a federal judge to block the U.S. Department of Agriculture from using race, gender or other “socially disadvantaged” traits to determine who gets disaster and pandemic farm aid and how much, arguing the agency’s current administration of eight emergency funding programs is unconstitutionally discriminatory.
A group of white farmers in Texas is asking a federal judge to block the U.S. Department of Agriculture from using race, gender or other “socially disadvantaged” traits to determine who gets disaster and pandemic farm aid and how much, arguing the agency’s current administration of eight emergency funding programs is unconstitutionally discriminatory.
“When natural disasters strike, they don’t discriminate based on race and sex. Neither should the Department of Agriculture,” the group of farmers wrote in a court filing made public Monday.
The farmers, represented the nonprofit legal firm called the Southeastern Legal Foundation, asked a judge to issue an emergency injunction from the U.S. District Court in Amarillo, Texas, to stop any additional awards from being made on the basis of race and gender or other liberal standards.
“Enjoining USDA from using race, sex, or progressive factoring when administering the programs is warranted because Plaintiffs are likely to succeed on the merits of their claims that: (1) the programs, as currently administered, are unconstitutional; (2) USDA lacks statutory authority to run the programs in their current form; and (3) USDA failed to adequately explain changes in calculating payments when implementing progressive factoring,” the motion stated.
The farmers said the Biden administration has taken roughly $25 billion in disaster and pandemic aid approved by Congress for farmers in eight programs and devised a system to make awards based on race, gender or other “socially disadvantaged” traits. Such decision-making violates the Constitution’s Fifth Amendment and the Administrative Procedures Act.
“The Constitution promises equal treatment to all Americans regardless of their race or sex,” the court filing also reads. “It also promises the separation of powers. USDA broke both promises through the disaster and pandemic relief programs challenged here.”
OBSERVATION - Preferential treatment = buying votes. Also linkage to CW2 as the govt is purposefully trying to put a wedge in between blacks and whites.
Illegal Immigration –
The Governor of Texas is sounding the alarm about a potential “drone war” erupting between the US and Mexican cartels across the border.
Gov. Abbott:
“Let me foreshadow also another concern we’re gonna have really soon, it’s already kind of beginning right now, and that’s gonna be drone wars.
The capability of the cartels about getting things across the border through drones already is extraordinary and they’re gonna be more aggressive, more sophisticated in the drone attacks.”
Source: Newsweek
OBSERVATION - This is also linked to Terrorism and CW2 topics as well. biden et al have basically surrendered the border region to cartels and those cartels are starting to fight each other for control.
China –
Six warships and four aircraft from Australia, Japan, the Philippines, and the United States conducted a joint patrol in the South China Sea on Sunday following Chinese harassment of Philippine Navy resupply missions in the region.
Officially dubbed the Australia – Japan – Philippines – United States Maritime Cooperative Activity, these joint patrols began last November in response to violent incidents between Manila and Beijing in the South China Sea, particularly around Scarborough Shoal and the resupply missions to BRP Sierra Madre (LT-57) at Second Thomas Shoal.
Sunday’s joint patrol not only marks the first combined multinational patrol but also the first time Japanese vessels and aircraft participated. Tokyo and Manila have expanded their defense ties over the last year, most notably through trilateral exchanges with the U.S. and the provision of naval radars to the Philippine Navy via Japan’s new military aid program. According to the Financial Times, the Philippines, Japan, and the U.S. are expected to strengthen their security cooperation during this week’s trilateral summit in Washington.
Alongside the number of involved nations, the joint patrol also included the most assets to date. Warships included Littoral Combat Ship USS Mobile (LCS-26), HMAS Warramunga (FFH-152), JS Akebono (DD-108), BRP Gregorio Del Pilar (PS-15), BRP Antonio Luna (FF-151) and BRP Valentin Diaz (PS-177). Shipborne helicopters as well as Two P-8 Poseidon aircraft from Australia and the U.S. were also involved.
OBSERVATION - I posted this exercise a couple days ago, this brings more information on the size and extent. This is a growing shot across the bow of China and its aggressive tactics in the South China Sea region.
North/South Korea –
North Korea said Friday it had carried out a test of an underwater nuclear weapons system, claiming it was facing severe security threats from the allies. Claim was made by Kim Son Gyong, North Korea’s deputy minister of foreign affairs, as cited by the North’s state-run Korean Central News Agency on Monday.
OBSERVATION - There is no reported evidence of such a subsurface nuclear test being reported by either SK or Japan. It is likely referring to a recent announcement that NK has developed a torpedo shaped drone capable of carrying a nuclear warhead.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Mar 21, 2024.
Russia has taken advantage of Ukrainian ammo shortages, forcing them into primary defensive operations, and has seized the initiative following the fall of Avdiivka. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. The attacks are scattered along the front, concentrating on five axises of attack -
- Avdiivka,
- Maryinka,
- Robotyne,
- Kremenka and
- Bakhmut.
Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.
With the exception of Avdiivka, initial Russia attacks along the other axises have had poor results and exceptionally heavy losses. Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with. In some cases, over 70% of these newer tanks have been destroyed or captured by Ukraine.
In these other attacks, Russia continues to make poor use of fire and maneuver, preferring tank/armor ‘charges’ across open areas and down roads. This brings them into prepared kill zones where these forces are stopped and destroyed.
The most significant change in Russian tactics is on the Avdiivka front, where Russian is doing a much better job of launching what one could consider combined arms attacks.
When Ukraine lacks the artillery, Russian forces are able to penetrate in mass and overwhelm the fewer Ukrainian defenders.
Russian organization and capabilities make it unlikely that they will be able to quickly take advantage of penetrations into Ukrainian defenses. Poor training and lack of leadership at all levels, combined with poor logistic trains, will prevent any major breakouts beyond initial penetration of lines.
Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage. Russia is relying heavily on N Korean artillery rounds and Iranian drone/missiles.
Russian appears to be continuing to shepherd its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2022./23 This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage. Ammo shortages are starting to impact Ukraine ADA defenses.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. Ukraine continues to engage and destroy Russian naval vessels..
While the Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine, early in this winter/spring offensive, Russian has more aggressively conducted CAS in support of ground troops, reflecting ADA shortages. As a result, Russia has been able to locally seize air superiority at key locations along the front - the first time in two years of fighting. This has been at a cost, with a number Su-34/35 aircraft being lost in the last part of February alone as well as critical A50 AWAC systems.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.
Unknowns at this time are how soon ammo supples will start hitting Ukrainian units. Long range ATACMS and German Taurus cruise missiles may be coming on line soon for Ukraine as well as F-16s (now reportedly due in late spring/early summer). But the most critical item is artillery ammo.
*****
Pacific Fleet warships are starting to arrive in the Mediterranean with increased activity of the Admiral Grigorovich, Ufa and Kildin. These vessels were noted last week passing though the Red Sea region.
Logistics –
The ongoing floodings in the Russian city of Orsk, Region Orenburg, which were caused by collapsing dams, rendered the local oil refinery (Orsknefteorgsintez) inoperable. Orsk oil refinery is the only one in the Orenburg Region with a design capacity of 36 million barrels of oil per year
Russian Personnel Issues –-
Although Russia is suffering severe losses in its current offensive in eastern Ukraine, it appears to be currently able to sustain those losses thru growth of conscription efforts. However, analysts suggest that those efforts may soon be grinding to a halt as they run out of easily conscriptable people.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 30-70 range with some local highs into the 80s. No significant precipitation in the forecast.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down 17 of 24 Shahed drone, launched by Russia overnight. Odesa, Krynky, and Zaporizhzhia appear to be targeted regions with some hits.
Fierce fighting continues to be reported on the Avdiivka and Bakhmut fronts.
Kharkiv continues to be hammered by artillery, missiles and glide bombs.
IAEA experts confirmed physical impact of drone attacks at ZNPP today, including at 1 of its 6 reactors. One casualty reported. Damage at unit 6 has not compromised nuclear safety, but this is a serious incident with potential to undermine integrity of the reactor’s containment system. Both sides claim it was the others drones that hit the power plant.
Outlook —
Kharkiv is facing the devastation due to shortage of ADA assets. It has been largely without power for more than a week and Russia is not picky about what it hits - mostly civilian apartment complexes and other sites like stores. Kharkiv may also be facing NK ballistic missiles shipped to Russia for use and testing.
Continued good weather for the next couple weeks indicates that the hard Russia armored push in the east is far from over. Russia continues to shoot its self in the foot by charging into armor kill zones with an abundance of mines and lacking artillery support to suppress Ukraine AT fire. Drones and diminished Ukrainian artillery is capable of dispatching Russians that survive the anti-armor hits.
These attacks are generally at a company sized level, though battalion sized assaults have occurred in the past few weeks. They also appear to be solo operations, with no coordinated supporting attacks, just charging across the open fields hoping to get to the other side to offload infantry and get back.
Generally, things have stalled out across the rest of the fronts. The deep war is at a pause as well as Russia may be considering moving their now vulnerable strategic bomber forces even further to the east to get out of range of the new Ukraine long range drones. Absent Black Sea support, the strategic bomber forces have been bearing the brunt of the deep attacks lately.
Innovation of weapons systems are at a much higher pace. Reports of wider deployment of Ukraine jet powered drones is catching the new too. These drones fly very fast and low, making it difficult for ADA guns to hit and forcing ADA units to use previous missiles to attempt to hit them. I expect to see these become even more of a factor in hitting western portions of Russia.
I don’t see any current sector facing imminent collapse from the Russian offensive. It may well have to continue to locally give up terrain, but Russia is having to pay a high price for its gains.
ISRAEL –
Dates to remember -
Ramadan March 11 - April 8
Key overnight developments -
- War is entering its 7th month
- IDF pulling most of its forces out of Gaza
- Rumors of intense US pressures for both sides to agree to a more substantive ceasefire and hostage release.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
***
Reports in Israeli media early Monday morning indicate that significant progress in a hostage release deal in Cairo may have been reached.
N12 News reported “cautious optimism” regarding negotiations as the Israeli delegation returns from Egypt with the latest details. An Egyptian source reported that all sides are close to agreement on the terms of the final deal. The Egyptian state-affiliated Al-Qahera news channel reported that there was broad agreement on the basic points of a deal.
However, soon after those reports were published, a senior Israeli source told the news outlet that a deal may not be imminent, stating: “The distance is still great.”
***
There is reportedly evidence that Hamas tricked Israel into hitting the convoy carrying cooks for relief operations in Gaza. This will have little bearing on the current outcry, but if better substantiate, could get some of the PR bleeding under control.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
The IDF on Sunday announced that it had concluded the active invasion stage of the war for now while leaving open the possibility of a future new invasion of Rafah in deep southern Gaza.
In terms of IDF soldiers, this means that the IDF has withdrawn all of Division 98 from Khan Yunis in southern Gaza while maintaining one plus brigades - the Nahal brigade and portions of Brigade 401 – in northern and central Gaza.
Although a top IDF official said that this change had nothing to do with US pressure, the timing was unmistakable in coming right after the IDF’s disastrous mistaken killing of seven humanitarian aid workers last week.
The decision also came less than two days after Israel opened the Erez Crossing and Ashdod port to transfer humanitarian aid, decisions made under threat by the US of potentially losing weapons support after Jerusalem had refused these requests from Washington for months.
Critically, this means that Palestinians can, on one hand, move freely within southern Gaza and Khan Yunis and that there is a complete vacuum for preventing a return of Hamas governance, but the IDF is keeping northern and central Gaza cut off from the south.
https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-795724
The Israel Defense Forces says it has “declined” the number of its forces in southern Gaza as it regroups for its next stage in the war
Israeli army Chief of Staff Halevi notes that “we are far from finishing” the war in Gaza. He adds that there are still plenty of forces in Gaza and that a war this long can’t involve the same amount of forces at all times
Gallant states that forces are preparing for “follow-up missions”, similar to the one carried out in Shifa Hospital wherever needed, including in Rafah
Haaretz, citing military officials: The army’s withdrawal from combat sites in the southern Gaza Strip was due to combat fatigue and not as signs of good faith toward the prisoner exchange deal negotiations.
***
The discussions between Israeli and US officials regarding an Israeli advance into Rafah are set to continue this week.
The talks are expected to be held on the professional level, while only next week, if at all, the Israeli delegation, which will probably consist of Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer and National Security Council head Tzachi Hanegbi, will leave.
Diplomatic sources predicted in a conversation with Kan Resht Bet radio that no action would be taken concerning Rafah until the discussions with the Americans ended.
It was further reported that the operation in Rafah would depend on whether a hostage deal is reached. Yesterday, Mossad Director David Barnea spoke and Shin Bet Director Ronen Bar met with CIA Director Burns and the Qatari Prime Minister. Before their meeting, the Hamas delegation met with the mediators.
https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/388106
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
IAF and artillery continue to conduct strikes throughout S Lebanon in response to Hezbollah attacks.
Jerusalem Post: The Israeli army is conducting a major maneuver along the coast and in the Western Galilee in northern Israel this morning to prepare for fighting on different fronts.
Israeli Chief of Staff: We are preparing for the possibility of war breaking out with Lebanon
***
Three people killed, including a field commander in Hezbollah’s elite Radwan Force, in an Israeli strike on Al Sultanya village in southern Lebanon, according to several sources.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Iran reportedly has conveyed a message to America via Oman; threatening to directly attack Israel unless the war in Gaza is halted, displaced people return, and the army withdraws.
***
A report in Jadeh Iran News quoted an unnamed source stating that Iran told the United States it would refrain from retaliating against Israel over the killing of IRGC senior commander Mohammed Zahedi if a ceasefire agreement is reached during negotiations.
Analysts from both Iran and Israel suggest that Iran is hesitant to retaliate against Israel, fearing such actions could lead to further escalation.
https://www.newsmax.com/world/globaltalk/israel-hostage-deal/2024/04/08/id/1160111/
———WEST BANK——————————-
Israeli security forces conducted numerous raids overnight at multiple locations across the West Bank.
Security forces arrested at least 23 people in several towns in Hebron in the West Bank
——— FORECAST ————————-
One moment Israel is poised to enter Rafah, the next they are pulling out of Gaza leaving one brigade to prevent south to north movement.
Israeli and Iranian forces on high alert for war and now rumors that Iran is backing off in order not to disrupt ceasefire talks.
IDK, I don’t think biden has the clout to force these actions by both countries. So what do I think at this stage?
The Gaza pullout make sense in the face of a potential hot war with Iran and Hezbollah. They have Hamas pretty well contained in Rafah and the recent Shifa Hospital operation has Israel sensing that they can get more bang for their buck by launching lighting raids on Hamas concentration that they feel ‘safe’ in. The units pulled out will have some rest, refit and rearm time and likely serve as a ready reserve force for any action against Hezbollah.
Iran appears to be attempting to weasel out of an attack on Israel proper, probably now looking at hitting Israeli embassies and interests in other parts of the world. They probably looked at the tea leaves and realized they don’t have the ADA assets in the quantities and capabilities to adequately defend against an Israeli counter strike. The goodwill ‘gesture’ under the guise of not wanting to affect any of the ongoing ceasefire talks is likely a smokescreen for its public consumption to cover inaction.
Did the biden policy change of recent have any influence? Possibly on the short term. The leverage was the death of the aid workers, now questionably have been used by Hamas to generate such an attack. But that will be short lived, like the hospital uproars. Israel clearly states that Rafah is still in the bulls eye and that the current withdrawal of troops from Gaza is also serving to prepare them to go into Rafah.
So what’s for forecast now?
I expect IDF to continue strikes via air and artillery against Hezbollah positions and Hezbollah to continue sniping at Israel.
Gaza ground action will decline to a degree, but naval, air and artillery fire based on near constant air surveillance and HUMINT will continue to hit identified Hamas targets should they get overconfident that they have ‘won’ and come out of hiding.
The “Islamic Resistance” remains relatively quiet, pending final Iranian/Hezbollah actions.
Yes, the wild card continues to be Iran. It would not be beyond them to issue the declaration that they are not going to hit Israel only to hit Israel - strategic lying is a major component of islam. With Ramadan now over, any constraints from that holiday are over, so this next week is the fish or cut bait moment.
If Iran continues to stand down and the ceasfire/hostage talks break down (and Hamas shows no interest in lowering their demands), I expect that Israel will then make the next step and take out Rafah. Right now the gross global political climate is pushing hard for a ceasefire - regardless of hostage release . When Hamas rejects or demands outrageous concessions that Israel will not agree to, game on in Rafah.
Iran – HIGH Warning for supported attacks against Israeli and US interests across the globe. Apr 2, 2024
See Israel above for analysis. Clock is ticking and the next week may be decisive for the region.
***
Heavy Fighting is being reported between several Groups of Unknown Gunmen and IRGC Security Forces near the Department of Intelligence within the city of Chah Bahar in Southeastern Iran, with sirens also sounding at the Naval Base in the city.
OBSERVATION — Appears to be a continuation of the scattered fighting reported a few days ago.
Misc of Note –
Enjoy the eclipse if you can. One word about cloud cover, in 1997 when I observed my first total eclipse in SW Montana, the sky was partly overcast - and that worked to our advantage permitting us to observe the initial stages of the eclipse using the clouds as a filter to protect our eyes. Just minutes before totality, the sky cleared and we got an unobscured view of the eclipse. So enjoy.
***
Airliner incidents with parts flying off and other issues are climbing to a level of beyond background noise. Yesterday a cowling on a 737 blew off at takeoff, requiring an emergency landing. With the high visibility of such incidents now on the multiple times per week scale, ground operations for major airlines almost have to be increasingly anal over properly securing and checking the planes out. Only the growing perception is that they aren’t.
Now we have another large cargo ship losing power as it approaches a major bridge. Coincidence? Or is this the potential beginning of a lot of small wrenches being tossed into the gears of key sectors - air transportation and shipping.
For those who’ve followed here over the years, I’m cautious when going down these rabbit holes. In todays modern technology with everyone having a cell phone/camera and such wide spread outlets for ‘news’, the increase in reports may not equal an actual increase above historic instances - because it wasn’t reported.
So IMHO, the boeing airliner incidents are on the verge of crossing out of tinfoil hat into deserving to be followed and examined more closely. The latest shipping incident should be examined very closely and quickly in order to prevent further loss of power incidents at key bridges crossing over harbor entrances. Perhaps an increased requirement for accompanying tug boats for instance until into open water as an example.
Companies that insure ships should have that information on shipping. Hopefully some intelligence groups or journalists will take a look at the numbers.
Well, since you are reading this the world didn’t come to an end. Don’t worry, mankind is doing its level best to make up for the failure of the moon.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Last year, the legislature and governor of Minnesota added a new category of human rights called “gender identity” to the Minnesota Human Rights Act. The result has been an unleashing of tyranny against Christian schools and churches throughout the state.
As of now, the state of Minnesota can tell churches and schools, at least those with 501(c)3 status, what they can and cannot say about “gender identity.” They can also, according to the law, force churches and schools of a religious nature what to say or do on other topics, too.
As it stands, the new law criminalizes the use of truthful pronouns as opposed to the ones constantly being made up by LGBTs. It also criminalizes others perceived as derogatory language that refuses to play along with LGBT delusions, i.e., transgender surgeries and puberty blockers for children.
“If pastors, teachers, or any other Minnesotans speak or write in opposition to the use of wrong-sex hormones, transgender surgery, or puberty blockers for minors, can they be charged with a crime under state law?” asks The Federalist’s Allen Quist about the implications of the new law.
“If parents try to protect their minor children from such practices, can they be charged with a crime? Can their minor children be removed from their custody if parents refuse to follow such laws? And can a transgender-identifying person be denied employment by a Christian school, church, or other Christian organization, such as counseling centers, charities, or pro-life groups?”
OBSERVATION - Back in the “Before Years”, this activity would have been seen simply as ‘culture wars’, however, with the rise of progressive marxism, especially since 2020, the govt and laws have been weaponized against Christians and like thinking individuals. Laws like this one are being pressed forward in other blue states, where free speech is only allowed when it matches the govt mandated narrative. New, it remains to be seen how well this will stand up to constitutional scrutiny, an effort guaranteed to take years. In the interim, barring fed court holds, significant damage can be done, with no repercussions to the governing elites. As noted in the article, Minnesota has become a dangerous zone for Christians.
One has to wonder if they will be as aggressive against the growing islamic population on these same issues?
Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of APR 9, 2024
Ramadan has ended
The FBI and Homeland Security are increasingly worried about threats from ISIS and “lone wolves” in the U.S.
The intel bulletin specifically warns people to be cautious at “mass gatherings such as sports stadiums, concert venues, or houses of worship in the United States.”
The warning is reportedly similar to the one U.S. officials gave in Russia on March 7, warning U.S. citizens to stay away from large gatherings for 48 hours due to “imminent plans” from extremists.
However, there are no official National Terrorism Advisory System (NTAS) alerts posted on this threat.
***
Iran has continued to say that US was involved in the Israeli air strike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus. Iran in the past has launched attacks against US interests globally in response to Israeli strikes. In that Zahedi is the replacement for Suleimani, who was taken out by a US airstrike, this action likely crossed many red lines for Iran.
Retaliation may come in many forms. Physical attacks on US interests globally, concentrated in Europe and Syria/Iraq. Cyber attacks increased probability.
In the US, Iranian terror groups may be activated and conduct terror ops here. Pro-hamas protest supporters may try to utilize this to increase hatred for Jewish interests in the US.
NOTE - there have been no formal terrorism threat alerts from any of the alphabet agencies in Washington. However, events are breaking fast and one may be soon to come.
Economy-
Jamie Dimon, the head of JPMorgan Chase, said his bank has prepared for interest rates to jump because of “persistent inflationary pressures”.
Central banks around the world have been busy raising rates in a bid to dampen rising prices.
But with price rises in some countries now gradually slowing, central banks may begin to lower interest rates.
In his annual letter to shareholders, Mr Dimon said that the bank was ready for a “very broad range” of rates, from 2% to 8% or even higher, potentially pushed up because of high government spending and the need to curb price rises.
“All of the following factors appear to be inflationary: ongoing fiscal spending, remilitarization of the world, restructuring of global trade, capital needs of the new green economy, and possibly higher energy costs,” Mr Dimon wrote.
The US Federal Reserve will make its next decision on which way interest rates will move at the end of the month.
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-68769561
OBSERVATION - “persistant inflationary pressures” Key phrase here. The Fed seems to want to overlook this indicator. Just goes to show how unstable the economy continues to be.
The expectation is that it will hold rates at the current level with the first cut potentially coming in June. The European Central Bank is also expected to make its first cut in June.
***
Persistent news that biden et al want to keep covered is that food prices have gone up on average about 40% overall since 2019. The ruling elite in the WH can only lie about it in order to try to keep it hidden.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –
The World Health Organization announces they are developing a Bird Flu Vaccine
“The WHO are continuing to engage with manufacturers to make sure of needed, supplies of vaccines would be available for Global use”
OBSERVATION - Again, a wuhan like scenario is developing where a ‘vaccine’ is being created absent the virus.
POLITICAL FRONT –
July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
Lawfare surrounding Trump is escalating this week with more court hearings and NY rejecting his bond on his appeal on the fraud decision.
Illegal Immigration –
“Replacement migration” used to be a conspiracy theory. Now facts are proving it to be real as US businesses are dumping citizens for these illegals who will work for less because the govt is covering most of their bills. However, very few of them want to work once they get fat and sassy in their free living here.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Mar 21, 2024.
Russia has taken advantage of Ukrainian ammo shortages, forcing them into primary defensive operations, and has seized the initiative following the fall of Avdiivka. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. The attacks are scattered along the front, concentrating on five axises of attack -
- Avdiivka,
- Maryinka,
- Robotyne,
- Kremenka and
- Bakhmut.
Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.
With the exception of Avdiivka, initial Russia attacks along the other axises have had poor results and exceptionally heavy losses. Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with. In some cases, over 70% of these newer tanks have been destroyed or captured by Ukraine.
In these other attacks, Russia continues to make poor use of fire and maneuver, preferring tank/armor ‘charges’ across open areas and down roads. This brings them into prepared kill zones where these forces are stopped and destroyed.
The most significant change in Russian tactics is on the Avdiivka front, where Russian is doing a much better job of launching what one could consider combined arms attacks.
When Ukraine lacks the artillery, Russian forces are able to penetrate in mass and overwhelm the fewer Ukrainian defenders.
Russian organization and capabilities make it unlikely that they will be able to quickly take advantage of penetrations into Ukrainian defenses. Poor training and lack of leadership at all levels, combined with poor logistic trains, will prevent any major breakouts beyond initial penetration of lines.
Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage. Russia is relying heavily on N Korean artillery rounds and Iranian drone/missiles.
Russian appears to be continuing to shepherd its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2022./23 This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage. Ammo shortages are starting to impact Ukraine ADA defenses.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. Ukraine continues to engage and destroy Russian naval vessels..
While the Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine, early in this winter/spring offensive, Russian has more aggressively conducted CAS in support of ground troops, reflecting ADA shortages. As a result, Russia has been able to locally seize air superiority at key locations along the front - the first time in two years of fighting. This has been at a cost, with a number Su-34/35 aircraft being lost in the last part of February alone as well as critical A50 AWAC systems.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.
Unknowns at this time are how soon ammo supples will start hitting Ukrainian units. Long range ATACMS and German Taurus cruise missiles may be coming on line soon for Ukraine as well as F-16s (now reportedly due in late spring/early summer). But the most critical item is artillery ammo.
*****
Russia warns that a German military presence in Lithuania would escalate tensions. Lithuania views a German force contingent of 5,000 troops by 2027 as a useful bulwark against potential aggression from Russia in the Baltic Sea and from Russia via Belarus This is a first deployment of its for Germany since World War II
Logistics –
Russia has asked Kazakhstan to stand ready to supply it with 100,000 tons of gasoline in case of shortages exacerbated by Ukrainian drone attacks and outages, three industry sources told Reuters.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 30-70 range with some local highs into the 80s. No significant precipitation in the forecast.
RUMINT –
Ukraine’s GUR military intelligence took credit for the sabotage which caused the fire on the Russian missile ship Serpukhov at the Baltiysk naval base in occupied Kaliningrad. The incident took place on April 7th, 2024.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Russia launched 4 S-400 missiles at Druzhkivka.
Ukrainian drones broke past Russian air defense and struck the Borisoglebsk Military Aviation Pilot Training Base in Voronezh region.
Ground assaults by Russia continue and are largely defeated by Ukraine defenses.
Bakhmut -
The battle for Chasiv Yar continues to heat up and Russian forces continue to press on the town, taking heavy losses.
Outlook —
The assaults on the Bakhmut (Chasiv Yar) and Avdiivak fronts continue to be fierce with Russian clawing out gains after heavy losses. The remaining ‘best units’ have been used in these sectors but it is uncertain just how long they can sustain heavy losses of personnel and equipment.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Hamas says it has allowed many of the hostages to be killed, complicating ceasefire negotiations.
- Iran continues to threaten retaliation for the Israeli airstrike on IRGC leadership in the embassy compound in Damascus.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
***
A Hamas official said Monday no progress was made at a new round of Gaza ceasefire talks in Cairo also attended by delegations from Israel, Qatar, and the U.S., shortly after Egyptian sources said headway had been made on the agenda.
“There is no change in the position of the occupation and therefore, there is nothing new in the Cairo talks,” the Hamas official, who asked not to be named, told Reuters. “There is no progress yet.”
A Palestinian official close to mediation efforts told Reuters that deadlock continued to reign over Israel’s refusal to end the war, withdraw its forces from Gaza, allow hundreds of thousands of displaced civilians to return to their homes and lift a 17-year-old blockade to allow speedy reconstruction.
These steps take precedence over Israel’s prime demand for a release of hostages in exchange for Palestinians held in Israeli prisons, said the official, speaking on condition of anonymity.
“Regarding the exchange of prisoners, Hamas was and is willing to be more flexible, but there is no flexibility over our...main demands,” he told Reuters.
https://www.newsmax.com/world/globaltalk/hamas-terrorists-hostages/2024/04/08/id/1160112/
According to Yaron Avraham on Channel 12 Israel news, Hamas has told the mediators that it does not have 40 hostages in the humanitarian category that are still alive. That is a category of women, children, the elderly, and the sick. The number that they say is alive, which is significantly lower, has not been made public.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in a short video statement says “there is a date” for an Israeli army offensive in southern Gaza’s Rafah
Israel’s National Security Minister Ben Gvir says Netanyahu will no longer have a mandate to continue as Prime Minister if there is not a ‘large-scale offensive in Rafah’.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Overnight and this morning, more ATGMs and mortar shells were launched from Lebanon towards Israel. Israeli army retaliated with air strikes and artillery fire.
A barrage of 15 rockets were fired from Lebanon at the Hanita area in northern Israel a short while ago, according to the Israeli army.The rockets all hit open areas, the Israeli army says.There are no reports of damage or injuries
Israeli artillery shelling targets at Tal Al-Jabiya and the surroundings of the town of Tasil in the Daraa countryside, according to local sources in the governorate
Four missiles were launched from Lebanon towards Israeli army positions in the Lebanese Shebaa Farms
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
The Israeli army bombed sites in Quneitra, Syria
US intelligence sources estimate that Iran is unlikely to attack Israel directly, preferring instead to rely on its proxies closer to Israel’s borders, CNN reported.
The sources, which CNN did not name, told the news outlet that Iran does not want to significantly escalate the situation, due to concerns regarding potential retaliation both by Israel and the US.
The report, which contradicts previous US and Israeli assessments that an attack by Iran is “inevitable,” also said that Iran is pushing its proxies to launch large-scale missile and drone attacks on Israel in the near future.
https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/388175
***
Iranian Foreign Minister: We confirm that the coming days will be difficult for Israel
Iranian Foreign Minister: Punishing Israel is certain and it will receive the necessary response
Iran’s foreign minister: We communicated to the US through appropriate diplomatic means that it is responsible as the full supporter of Israel
***
CNN reports that “U.S. intelligence assesses that Iran has urged several of its proxy militia groups to simultaneously launch a large-scale attack against Israel, using drones and missiles, and that they could attack as soon as this week.”
****
Iran has issued a Notice to Air Missions (NOTAM) in its Central Desert for missile activity, urging civil aviation to steer clear of the area. This activity could be related to military exercises, but one can never be too sure. The NOTAM was announced on April 8, 2024, with a specific timeframe for the no-fly zone set between April 10 at 3:30 am and April 12 at 10:30 am.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Israeli security forces conducted numerous raids overnight at multiple locations across the West Bank.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
USCENTCOM forces successfully engaged and destroyed an air defense system with two missiles ready to launch, a ground control station in Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen, and one unmanned aerial system launched by Iranian-backed Houthi terrorists from Yemen over the Red Sea.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Turkey restricts the export of some products to Israel over the invasion of Gaza, including aluminum, steel, cement, and chemical pesticides as of today
——— FORECAST ————————-
Iran is employing a passive/aggressive approach in its threats to Israel. One time they aren’t going to hit , the next time they are. Probably the most certain aspect is that the “Islamic Resistance” will launch just about everything they have that can range Israel in one large blitz. This would give Iran a fig leaf covering to say that they didn’t strike Israel proper.
However, the NOTAM issued by Iran has folk scratching their heads. Are they telegraphing a strike or is this some concurrent display of missile power for arab consumption?
For Iran to make all this bluster and nothing significant happen would cause additional loss of face and prestige. Something is going to happen - count on it. And it will likely happen very soon.
Rafah is not off the hook, it is a key piece of Israeli military goals and should Iran balk in their declared retaliation against Israel, Rafah will be hit. To not do so would grant Hamas a degree of victory and enable an enhanced effort to regain control of regions of Gaza. IMHO once the Iranian issue is dealt with, attention will once again be visited on Rafah.
Hamas is not making their case any easier by holding rigidly to their demands on one hand while admitting that they’ve allowed most of the hostages to be killed. That admission in itself will redouble Israeli fury when the Rafah operation begins.
As for now, Israel continues air, artillery and naval strikes on Hamas et al targets in Gaza, forcing them to keep their heads down. Israel even took out a Hamas rocket launcher embedded in a designated ‘relief’ zone - showing that Hamas prefers to continue to use civilians as shields - and the pious UN turns a blind eye to it.
When will this counter strike occur and how large will it be (in part depending on who participates in it). Seems best guesses are sometime this week. Ramadan is past and pressure is likely building within the islamist fanatics in Iranian leadership to retaliate.
Syria -
RUMINT - Syrian President Assad and his family evacuated from Damascus and transferred to a resort near Khmeimim Russian Military base.
Central / South America General-
Jorge Glas, the detained former vice president of Ecuador, was hospitalized on Monday, barely three days after his arrest during a highly controversial raid on the Mexican Embassy in Quito, where he was seeking refuge.
Glas fell ill at a prison in Guayaquil, prison authorities said in a statement on X, formerly Twitter.
***
Brazilian head of the Supreme Court has launched a fight with Musk and “X” over the refusal to censor/block internet free speech on X by Brazilians. This is developing into an major, global free speech issue.
Misc of Note –
Now with all the hullabaloo over regarding yesterday’s solar eclipse, I’d like to look at a key point. All the quasi-panic reflects the internal thinkings of the sheeple that something evil this way comes. The ‘new normal’ is not happy days are here again. Unable to rationalize away from the mind numbing propaganda of the MSM, many have grasped at serious tinfoil ideas.
In our post-wuhan world, inflation, jobs, global insecurity/wars, illegals, globalism etc. have affected our perceptions greatly about govt and its involvement in today’s woes - even inclined to view the govt as the source of the problems - deliberately. So it isn’t too much of a surprise to me to see such a widespread glut of over concern over a routine solar eclipse as a sign of impending judgement from God.
Now for those who are more prophetically minded, let me add this. Just as the big “blood moons” talk fell apart like a house of cards a number years ago, seeking ‘omens’ to interpret in place of the bible is fraught with potential errors - errors that make biblical understanding of the ‘times and seasons’ befuddled and unclear. In fact, reading ‘omens’ is forbidden by scripture, but in today’s largely scripturally illiterate masses that gets overlooked by the sensationalism of the claims.
To be straight forward, the bible is very clear that society will disintegrate in the period prior to the return of Christ. All the societal ills we see today, growing at near exponential rates and with clearly demonic support as compared to the trend in the “Before Years” should turn every one’s head. Though America’s founding fathers used scriptural principles to form the foundation for this nation and called for God’s blessing in the endeavor, the bible is also clear as to how God will deal with rebellious peoples and nations - the US is not exempt on that count.
Real life actions tracking with real life biblical prophecies should be the norm. Reading into common astronomical events should not. When God places a sign in the heavens, as prophesied, it will be unmistakable and no speculation will be needed.
Yes, I expect the imminent return of Jesus, and as He clearly stated, there will be no precursors needing to be fulfilled prior to His return in the air for His believers. Reading a solar eclipse as a ‘sign’ likely has done more to hurt this doctrine of imminency that anything recently. And that is not a good thing.
There is a storm coming and we better be ready for it.