Well, since you are reading this the world didn’t come to an end. Don’t worry, mankind is doing its level best to make up for the failure of the moon.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Last year, the legislature and governor of Minnesota added a new category of human rights called “gender identity” to the Minnesota Human Rights Act. The result has been an unleashing of tyranny against Christian schools and churches throughout the state.
As of now, the state of Minnesota can tell churches and schools, at least those with 501(c)3 status, what they can and cannot say about “gender identity.” They can also, according to the law, force churches and schools of a religious nature what to say or do on other topics, too.
As it stands, the new law criminalizes the use of truthful pronouns as opposed to the ones constantly being made up by LGBTs. It also criminalizes others perceived as derogatory language that refuses to play along with LGBT delusions, i.e., transgender surgeries and puberty blockers for children.
“If pastors, teachers, or any other Minnesotans speak or write in opposition to the use of wrong-sex hormones, transgender surgery, or puberty blockers for minors, can they be charged with a crime under state law?” asks The Federalist’s Allen Quist about the implications of the new law.
“If parents try to protect their minor children from such practices, can they be charged with a crime? Can their minor children be removed from their custody if parents refuse to follow such laws? And can a transgender-identifying person be denied employment by a Christian school, church, or other Christian organization, such as counseling centers, charities, or pro-life groups?”
OBSERVATION - Back in the “Before Years”, this activity would have been seen simply as ‘culture wars’, however, with the rise of progressive marxism, especially since 2020, the govt and laws have been weaponized against Christians and like thinking individuals. Laws like this one are being pressed forward in other blue states, where free speech is only allowed when it matches the govt mandated narrative. New, it remains to be seen how well this will stand up to constitutional scrutiny, an effort guaranteed to take years. In the interim, barring fed court holds, significant damage can be done, with no repercussions to the governing elites. As noted in the article, Minnesota has become a dangerous zone for Christians.
One has to wonder if they will be as aggressive against the growing islamic population on these same issues?
Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of APR 9, 2024
Ramadan has ended
The FBI and Homeland Security are increasingly worried about threats from ISIS and “lone wolves” in the U.S.
The intel bulletin specifically warns people to be cautious at “mass gatherings such as sports stadiums, concert venues, or houses of worship in the United States.”
The warning is reportedly similar to the one U.S. officials gave in Russia on March 7, warning U.S. citizens to stay away from large gatherings for 48 hours due to “imminent plans” from extremists.
However, there are no official National Terrorism Advisory System (NTAS) alerts posted on this threat.
***
Iran has continued to say that US was involved in the Israeli air strike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus. Iran in the past has launched attacks against US interests globally in response to Israeli strikes. In that Zahedi is the replacement for Suleimani, who was taken out by a US airstrike, this action likely crossed many red lines for Iran.
Retaliation may come in many forms. Physical attacks on US interests globally, concentrated in Europe and Syria/Iraq. Cyber attacks increased probability.
In the US, Iranian terror groups may be activated and conduct terror ops here. Pro-hamas protest supporters may try to utilize this to increase hatred for Jewish interests in the US.
NOTE - there have been no formal terrorism threat alerts from any of the alphabet agencies in Washington. However, events are breaking fast and one may be soon to come.
Economy-
Jamie Dimon, the head of JPMorgan Chase, said his bank has prepared for interest rates to jump because of “persistent inflationary pressures”.
Central banks around the world have been busy raising rates in a bid to dampen rising prices.
But with price rises in some countries now gradually slowing, central banks may begin to lower interest rates.
In his annual letter to shareholders, Mr Dimon said that the bank was ready for a “very broad range” of rates, from 2% to 8% or even higher, potentially pushed up because of high government spending and the need to curb price rises.
“All of the following factors appear to be inflationary: ongoing fiscal spending, remilitarization of the world, restructuring of global trade, capital needs of the new green economy, and possibly higher energy costs,” Mr Dimon wrote.
The US Federal Reserve will make its next decision on which way interest rates will move at the end of the month.
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-68769561
OBSERVATION - “persistant inflationary pressures” Key phrase here. The Fed seems to want to overlook this indicator. Just goes to show how unstable the economy continues to be.
The expectation is that it will hold rates at the current level with the first cut potentially coming in June. The European Central Bank is also expected to make its first cut in June.
***
Persistent news that biden et al want to keep covered is that food prices have gone up on average about 40% overall since 2019. The ruling elite in the WH can only lie about it in order to try to keep it hidden.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –
The World Health Organization announces they are developing a Bird Flu Vaccine
“The WHO are continuing to engage with manufacturers to make sure of needed, supplies of vaccines would be available for Global use”
OBSERVATION - Again, a wuhan like scenario is developing where a ‘vaccine’ is being created absent the virus.
POLITICAL FRONT –
July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
Lawfare surrounding Trump is escalating this week with more court hearings and NY rejecting his bond on his appeal on the fraud decision.
Illegal Immigration –
“Replacement migration” used to be a conspiracy theory. Now facts are proving it to be real as US businesses are dumping citizens for these illegals who will work for less because the govt is covering most of their bills. However, very few of them want to work once they get fat and sassy in their free living here.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Mar 21, 2024.
Russia has taken advantage of Ukrainian ammo shortages, forcing them into primary defensive operations, and has seized the initiative following the fall of Avdiivka. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. The attacks are scattered along the front, concentrating on five axises of attack -
- Avdiivka,
- Maryinka,
- Robotyne,
- Kremenka and
- Bakhmut.
Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.
With the exception of Avdiivka, initial Russia attacks along the other axises have had poor results and exceptionally heavy losses. Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with. In some cases, over 70% of these newer tanks have been destroyed or captured by Ukraine.
In these other attacks, Russia continues to make poor use of fire and maneuver, preferring tank/armor ‘charges’ across open areas and down roads. This brings them into prepared kill zones where these forces are stopped and destroyed.
The most significant change in Russian tactics is on the Avdiivka front, where Russian is doing a much better job of launching what one could consider combined arms attacks.
When Ukraine lacks the artillery, Russian forces are able to penetrate in mass and overwhelm the fewer Ukrainian defenders.
Russian organization and capabilities make it unlikely that they will be able to quickly take advantage of penetrations into Ukrainian defenses. Poor training and lack of leadership at all levels, combined with poor logistic trains, will prevent any major breakouts beyond initial penetration of lines.
Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage. Russia is relying heavily on N Korean artillery rounds and Iranian drone/missiles.
Russian appears to be continuing to shepherd its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2022./23 This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage. Ammo shortages are starting to impact Ukraine ADA defenses.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. Ukraine continues to engage and destroy Russian naval vessels..
While the Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine, early in this winter/spring offensive, Russian has more aggressively conducted CAS in support of ground troops, reflecting ADA shortages. As a result, Russia has been able to locally seize air superiority at key locations along the front - the first time in two years of fighting. This has been at a cost, with a number Su-34/35 aircraft being lost in the last part of February alone as well as critical A50 AWAC systems.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.
Unknowns at this time are how soon ammo supples will start hitting Ukrainian units. Long range ATACMS and German Taurus cruise missiles may be coming on line soon for Ukraine as well as F-16s (now reportedly due in late spring/early summer). But the most critical item is artillery ammo.
*****
Russia warns that a German military presence in Lithuania would escalate tensions. Lithuania views a German force contingent of 5,000 troops by 2027 as a useful bulwark against potential aggression from Russia in the Baltic Sea and from Russia via Belarus This is a first deployment of its for Germany since World War II
Logistics –
Russia has asked Kazakhstan to stand ready to supply it with 100,000 tons of gasoline in case of shortages exacerbated by Ukrainian drone attacks and outages, three industry sources told Reuters.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 30-70 range with some local highs into the 80s. No significant precipitation in the forecast.
RUMINT –
Ukraine’s GUR military intelligence took credit for the sabotage which caused the fire on the Russian missile ship Serpukhov at the Baltiysk naval base in occupied Kaliningrad. The incident took place on April 7th, 2024.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Russia launched 4 S-400 missiles at Druzhkivka.
Ukrainian drones broke past Russian air defense and struck the Borisoglebsk Military Aviation Pilot Training Base in Voronezh region.
Ground assaults by Russia continue and are largely defeated by Ukraine defenses.
Bakhmut -
The battle for Chasiv Yar continues to heat up and Russian forces continue to press on the town, taking heavy losses.
Outlook —
The assaults on the Bakhmut (Chasiv Yar) and Avdiivak fronts continue to be fierce with Russian clawing out gains after heavy losses. The remaining ‘best units’ have been used in these sectors but it is uncertain just how long they can sustain heavy losses of personnel and equipment.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Hamas says it has allowed many of the hostages to be killed, complicating ceasefire negotiations.
- Iran continues to threaten retaliation for the Israeli airstrike on IRGC leadership in the embassy compound in Damascus.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
***
A Hamas official said Monday no progress was made at a new round of Gaza ceasefire talks in Cairo also attended by delegations from Israel, Qatar, and the U.S., shortly after Egyptian sources said headway had been made on the agenda.
“There is no change in the position of the occupation and therefore, there is nothing new in the Cairo talks,” the Hamas official, who asked not to be named, told Reuters. “There is no progress yet.”
A Palestinian official close to mediation efforts told Reuters that deadlock continued to reign over Israel’s refusal to end the war, withdraw its forces from Gaza, allow hundreds of thousands of displaced civilians to return to their homes and lift a 17-year-old blockade to allow speedy reconstruction.
These steps take precedence over Israel’s prime demand for a release of hostages in exchange for Palestinians held in Israeli prisons, said the official, speaking on condition of anonymity.
“Regarding the exchange of prisoners, Hamas was and is willing to be more flexible, but there is no flexibility over our...main demands,” he told Reuters.
https://www.newsmax.com/world/globaltalk/hamas-terrorists-hostages/2024/04/08/id/1160112/
According to Yaron Avraham on Channel 12 Israel news, Hamas has told the mediators that it does not have 40 hostages in the humanitarian category that are still alive. That is a category of women, children, the elderly, and the sick. The number that they say is alive, which is significantly lower, has not been made public.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in a short video statement says “there is a date” for an Israeli army offensive in southern Gaza’s Rafah
Israel’s National Security Minister Ben Gvir says Netanyahu will no longer have a mandate to continue as Prime Minister if there is not a ‘large-scale offensive in Rafah’.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Overnight and this morning, more ATGMs and mortar shells were launched from Lebanon towards Israel. Israeli army retaliated with air strikes and artillery fire.
A barrage of 15 rockets were fired from Lebanon at the Hanita area in northern Israel a short while ago, according to the Israeli army.The rockets all hit open areas, the Israeli army says.There are no reports of damage or injuries
Israeli artillery shelling targets at Tal Al-Jabiya and the surroundings of the town of Tasil in the Daraa countryside, according to local sources in the governorate
Four missiles were launched from Lebanon towards Israeli army positions in the Lebanese Shebaa Farms
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
The Israeli army bombed sites in Quneitra, Syria
US intelligence sources estimate that Iran is unlikely to attack Israel directly, preferring instead to rely on its proxies closer to Israel’s borders, CNN reported.
The sources, which CNN did not name, told the news outlet that Iran does not want to significantly escalate the situation, due to concerns regarding potential retaliation both by Israel and the US.
The report, which contradicts previous US and Israeli assessments that an attack by Iran is “inevitable,” also said that Iran is pushing its proxies to launch large-scale missile and drone attacks on Israel in the near future.
https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/388175
***
Iranian Foreign Minister: We confirm that the coming days will be difficult for Israel
Iranian Foreign Minister: Punishing Israel is certain and it will receive the necessary response
Iran’s foreign minister: We communicated to the US through appropriate diplomatic means that it is responsible as the full supporter of Israel
***
CNN reports that “U.S. intelligence assesses that Iran has urged several of its proxy militia groups to simultaneously launch a large-scale attack against Israel, using drones and missiles, and that they could attack as soon as this week.”
****
Iran has issued a Notice to Air Missions (NOTAM) in its Central Desert for missile activity, urging civil aviation to steer clear of the area. This activity could be related to military exercises, but one can never be too sure. The NOTAM was announced on April 8, 2024, with a specific timeframe for the no-fly zone set between April 10 at 3:30 am and April 12 at 10:30 am.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Israeli security forces conducted numerous raids overnight at multiple locations across the West Bank.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
USCENTCOM forces successfully engaged and destroyed an air defense system with two missiles ready to launch, a ground control station in Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen, and one unmanned aerial system launched by Iranian-backed Houthi terrorists from Yemen over the Red Sea.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Turkey restricts the export of some products to Israel over the invasion of Gaza, including aluminum, steel, cement, and chemical pesticides as of today
——— FORECAST ————————-
Iran is employing a passive/aggressive approach in its threats to Israel. One time they aren’t going to hit , the next time they are. Probably the most certain aspect is that the “Islamic Resistance” will launch just about everything they have that can range Israel in one large blitz. This would give Iran a fig leaf covering to say that they didn’t strike Israel proper.
However, the NOTAM issued by Iran has folk scratching their heads. Are they telegraphing a strike or is this some concurrent display of missile power for arab consumption?
For Iran to make all this bluster and nothing significant happen would cause additional loss of face and prestige. Something is going to happen - count on it. And it will likely happen very soon.
Rafah is not off the hook, it is a key piece of Israeli military goals and should Iran balk in their declared retaliation against Israel, Rafah will be hit. To not do so would grant Hamas a degree of victory and enable an enhanced effort to regain control of regions of Gaza. IMHO once the Iranian issue is dealt with, attention will once again be visited on Rafah.
Hamas is not making their case any easier by holding rigidly to their demands on one hand while admitting that they’ve allowed most of the hostages to be killed. That admission in itself will redouble Israeli fury when the Rafah operation begins.
As for now, Israel continues air, artillery and naval strikes on Hamas et al targets in Gaza, forcing them to keep their heads down. Israel even took out a Hamas rocket launcher embedded in a designated ‘relief’ zone - showing that Hamas prefers to continue to use civilians as shields - and the pious UN turns a blind eye to it.
When will this counter strike occur and how large will it be (in part depending on who participates in it). Seems best guesses are sometime this week. Ramadan is past and pressure is likely building within the islamist fanatics in Iranian leadership to retaliate.
Syria -
RUMINT - Syrian President Assad and his family evacuated from Damascus and transferred to a resort near Khmeimim Russian Military base.
Central / South America General-
Jorge Glas, the detained former vice president of Ecuador, was hospitalized on Monday, barely three days after his arrest during a highly controversial raid on the Mexican Embassy in Quito, where he was seeking refuge.
Glas fell ill at a prison in Guayaquil, prison authorities said in a statement on X, formerly Twitter.
***
Brazilian head of the Supreme Court has launched a fight with Musk and “X” over the refusal to censor/block internet free speech on X by Brazilians. This is developing into an major, global free speech issue.
Misc of Note –
Now with all the hullabaloo over regarding yesterday’s solar eclipse, I’d like to look at a key point. All the quasi-panic reflects the internal thinkings of the sheeple that something evil this way comes. The ‘new normal’ is not happy days are here again. Unable to rationalize away from the mind numbing propaganda of the MSM, many have grasped at serious tinfoil ideas.
In our post-wuhan world, inflation, jobs, global insecurity/wars, illegals, globalism etc. have affected our perceptions greatly about govt and its involvement in today’s woes - even inclined to view the govt as the source of the problems - deliberately. So it isn’t too much of a surprise to me to see such a widespread glut of over concern over a routine solar eclipse as a sign of impending judgement from God.
Now for those who are more prophetically minded, let me add this. Just as the big “blood moons” talk fell apart like a house of cards a number years ago, seeking ‘omens’ to interpret in place of the bible is fraught with potential errors - errors that make biblical understanding of the ‘times and seasons’ befuddled and unclear. In fact, reading ‘omens’ is forbidden by scripture, but in today’s largely scripturally illiterate masses that gets overlooked by the sensationalism of the claims.
To be straight forward, the bible is very clear that society will disintegrate in the period prior to the return of Christ. All the societal ills we see today, growing at near exponential rates and with clearly demonic support as compared to the trend in the “Before Years” should turn every one’s head. Though America’s founding fathers used scriptural principles to form the foundation for this nation and called for God’s blessing in the endeavor, the bible is also clear as to how God will deal with rebellious peoples and nations - the US is not exempt on that count.
Real life actions tracking with real life biblical prophecies should be the norm. Reading into common astronomical events should not. When God places a sign in the heavens, as prophesied, it will be unmistakable and no speculation will be needed.
Yes, I expect the imminent return of Jesus, and as He clearly stated, there will be no precursors needing to be fulfilled prior to His return in the air for His believers. Reading a solar eclipse as a ‘sign’ likely has done more to hurt this doctrine of imminency that anything recently. And that is not a good thing.
There is a storm coming and we better be ready for it.
I suspect top people in the Sexual Weirdo Community are in kahoots with the people working to destroy our country along with mid level 'leaders' in the 'homeless industry complex' who recruit street level activists. ...
Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024
The following point to the emphasis that the WEF and affiliated globalists have to silence Christianity and in particular Biblical Christianity because of the adherence of followers to the absolute truths taught in the bible and how that throws up roadblocks in the global effort to subjugate humanity and replace God with their globalist agendas.
The Hate Crime and Public Order (Scotland) Act 2021 has created a new criminal offense of “stirring up hatred” against individuals due to one or more of certain protected characteristics: age, disability, religion, sexual orientation, transgender identity or variations in sex characteristics (intersex individuals).
“The law seems to be designed to stop free speech and impose the LGBTQ agenda on all of Scotland,” Franklin Graham posted on Facebook.
On April 1, hundreds of protesters gathered outside the Scottish Parliament to protest the law and its potential effects on free speech.
A person breaks the new law if he or she “behaves in a manner” or “communicates to another person material that a reasonable person would consider to be threatening or abusive.” Additionally, one of these two requirements must be met: “in doing so, the person intends to stir up hatred against a group of persons” with a protected characteristic, or “a reasonable person would consider the behavior or the communication of the material to be likely to result in hatred being stirred up against such a group.”
Many have objected to this law, expressing concern that the wording of it could easily allow transgender activists to weaponize the law against those who disagree with LGBTQ ideology. While there is a section in the bill addressing free speech and expression, the concern is still very widespread.
https://harbingersdaily.com/designed-to-stop-free-speech-new-scotland-hate-crime-law-sparks-outcry/
OBSERVATION - This is but one of many new laws designed to silence Christians on a wide variety of subjects. In this instance, biblical opposition to the LGBT agenda. Similar laws springing up all across the globe. The censorship agenda is very much alive and well here in the US as well. Proponents seek to censor and punish individuals on a wide range of topics from LGBT etc, to global warming, etc.
A closer example is found emerging in Canada -
“Bill C-367 eliminates the “religious exemption” in Section 319 of the Criminal Code, which states: “No person shall be convicted of a [hate crime] offence… if, in good faith, the person expressed or attempted to establish by an argument an opinion on a religious subject or an opinion based on a belief in a religious text.” By eliminating this exemption, Bill C-367 will empower police to treat religious Canadians as hate-criminals if they criticize any identifiable groups.“
from The Peoples Voice:
The Trudeau government has introduced a bill that could land Christians in prison for quoting the Bible or expressing a traditional faith-based opinion if the Canadian government deems it “promotion of hatred or antisemitism.”
OBSERVATION - Definition of terms are purposefully left fuzzy for a reason, so the law can be wrapped around what ever the globalist leftists desire to silence.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Conservative lawmakers are calling for an end to warrantless surveillance of Americans ahead of a House floor vote on Wednesday to reauthorize the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA).
The bill, titled the “Reforming Intelligence and Securing America Act,” would extend section 702 of FISA, which “authorizes the targeted collection of foreign intelligence information from non-U.S. persons located abroad,” according to the FBI.
OBSERVATION - The no warrant provisions of the current FISA laws have been grossly abused by the FBI to spy on Americans, to the tune of hundreds of thousands of times. Wray claims new procedures are in place to prevent abuse, but this is just the fox watching the hen house. Current projections is that FISA will be reauthorized without the warrant requirements. A continuation down the path of tyrannical government spying on citizens at their whim and pleasure.
Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of APR 8, 2024
Ramadan has ended and today is Eid al-Fitr
The FBI and Homeland Security are increasingly worried about threats from ISIS and “lone wolves” in the U.S.
The intel bulletin specifically warns people to be cautious at “mass gatherings such as sports stadiums, concert venues, or houses of worship in the United States.”
Of particular note - U.S. intelligence officials are warning of violence targeting mass gatherings days before millions gather to watch the eclipse.
The warning is reportedly similar to the one U.S. officials gave in Russia on March 7, warning U.S. citizens to stay away from large gatherings for 48 hours due to “imminent plans” from extremists.
However, there are no official National Terrorism Advisory System (NTAS) alerts posted on this threat.
***
Iran has continued to say that US was involved in the Israeli air strike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus. Iran in the past has launched attacks against US interests globally in response to Israeli strikes. In that Zahedi is the replacement for Suleimani, who was taken out by a US airstrike, this action likely crossed many red lines for Iran.
Retaliation may come in many forms. Physical attacks on US interests globally, concentrated in Europe and Syria/Iraq. Cyber attacks increased probability.
In the US, Iranian terror groups may be activated and conduct terror ops here. Pro-hamas protest supporters may try to utilize this to increase hatred for Jewish interests in the US.
NOTE - there have been no formal terrorism threat alerts from any of the alphabet agencies in Washington. However, events are breaking fast and one may be soon to come.
***
Alexander Mercurio is now facing a federal charge of attempting to provide material support or resources to a designated foreign terrorist organization after the FBI says he devised a plan to “incapacitate his father, restrain him using handcuffs, and steal his firearms to use for maximum casualties” in an attack he had been planning to carry out in the resort city on Sunday, April 7.
“The defendant allegedly pledged loyalty to ISIS and sought to attack people attending churches in Idaho, a truly horrific plan which was detected and thwarted by the FBI’s Joint Terrorism Task Force,” FBI Director Christopher Wray said in a statement.
https://www.prophecynewswatch.com/article.cfm?recent_news_id=6814
OBSERVATION - Radicalized ‘lone wolf’ attack. It is important to note that his journey to the dark side began during the wuhan lockdowns forcing the then student Mercurio studying from home.
Economy-
Gasoline prices in the United States have soared to a six-month high, reaching an average of $3.60 per gallon, marking a more than 50% increase since President Joe Biden took office, Breitbart reported.
OBSERVATION - This is one of the often mentioned “upward pressures” on inflation. Increased transportation costs ripple throughout the economy, pushing already high prices even higher.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
USS Theodore Roosevelt CSG, currently in the S China sea region, is enroute to the Red Sea region where it is expected to relieve the USS Eisenhower CSG of duties.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –
(FO) Officials from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) warned state public health officials to prepare for possible avian flu outbreaks. However, the threat to the public remains low.
“We have never seen this scale of infections in mammals” and there are few options to intervene in mammal avian flu outbreaks, Dutch virologist Ron Fouchier said.
OBSERVATION - My concern level remains very high given the telegraphing over the past year of disease “X” and the current presidential political season. Mutation of the H5N1 mutates to become more transmissible from human to human, and respiratory infections increase is at the top of the list. Natural or man-made adaptation of the virus both probable.
Illegal Immigration –
Buried under all the other hubris of the day, still going on at record pace.
China –
Taiwan’s annual war game exercises this year will feature simulating a scenario in which China turns one of its frequent military drills around the island into an actual attack, a report says.
Tung Chih-hsing, the head of the joint combat planning department of Taiwan’s defense ministry, made the announcement during a news conference Tuesday, according to Reuters. He reportedly added that the drills would integrate naval, air, coast guard forces, drones and shore-mounted anti-ship weapons to establish an “attack and kill chain” at sea.
The Han Kuang exercises are set to begin in April with eight days of tabletop drills followed by combat exercises in July, Reuters is reporting, citing the defense ministry.
https://www.foxnews.com/world/taiwan-war-games-simulate-china-turning-military-drill-attack-report
OBSERVATION - This is not a novel tactic. The arab Egyptian and Syrian armies pulled off a similar surprise attack on Israel in 1973 - the Yon Kipper War. What is still lacking is the build up of transports to carry the hundreds of thousand of Chinese soldiers to the island. China’s air and naval forces could attack Taiwan infrastructure / military targets, but that would trigger global response that could make the follow-on amphibious operation very difficult to do.
My current operation scenario would see such an exercise transition into a blockade of the island. Recent exercises in the past have given glimpses of what that blockade would look like. Probability of a blockade versus invasion are much much higher.
***
Chinese President Xi Jinping told former Taiwan President Ma Ying-jeou on Wednesday that outside inference could not stop the “family reunion” between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait, and that there are no issues that cannot be discussed.
Since the defeated Republic of China government fled to Taiwan in 1949 after losing a civil war to Mao Zedong’s communists, no serving Taiwanese leader has visited China.
Ma, president from 2008 to 2016, last year became the first former Taiwanese leader to visit China, and is now on his second trip to the country, at a time of simmering military tension across the strait.
https://www.newsmax.com/world/globaltalk/china-xi-jinping-taiwan/2024/04/10/id/1160408/
OBSERVATION - Xi views reunification as a juggernaut that cannot be stopped and will be accomplished by hook or by crook.
Ma is a senior member of Taiwan’s main opposition party the Kuomintang (KMT), which in January lost the presidential election for the third time in a row, but has no official party position.
The KMT advocates close ties with China and dialog, but strongly denies being pro-Beijing.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Mar 21, 2024.
Russia has taken advantage of Ukrainian ammo shortages, forcing them into primary defensive operations, and has seized the initiative following the fall of Avdiivka. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. The attacks are scattered along the front, concentrating on five axises of attack -
- Avdiivka,
- Maryinka,
- Robotyne,
- Kremenka and
- Bakhmut.
Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.
With the exception of Avdiivka, initial Russia attacks along the other axises have had poor results and exceptionally heavy losses. Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with. In some cases, over 70% of these newer tanks have been destroyed or captured by Ukraine.
In these other attacks, Russia continues to make poor use of fire and maneuver, preferring tank/armor ‘charges’ across open areas and down roads. This brings them into prepared kill zones where these forces are stopped and destroyed.
The most significant change in Russian tactics is on the Avdiivka front, where Russian is doing a much better job of launching what one could consider combined arms attacks.
When Ukraine lacks the artillery, Russian forces are able to penetrate in mass and overwhelm the fewer Ukrainian defenders.
Russian organization and capabilities make it unlikely that they will be able to quickly take advantage of penetrations into Ukrainian defenses. Poor training and lack of leadership at all levels, combined with poor logistic trains, will prevent any major breakouts beyond initial penetration of lines.
Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage. Russia is relying heavily on N Korean artillery rounds and Iranian drone/missiles.
Russian appears to be continuing to shepherd its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2022./23 This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage. Ammo shortages are starting to impact Ukraine ADA defenses.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. Ukraine continues to engage and destroy Russian naval vessels..
While the Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine, early in this winter/spring offensive, Russian has more aggressively conducted CAS in support of ground troops, reflecting ADA shortages. As a result, Russia has been able to locally seize air superiority at key locations along the front - the first time in two years of fighting. This has been at a cost, with a number Su-34/35 aircraft being lost in the last part of February alone as well as critical A50 AWAC systems.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.
Unknowns at this time are how soon ammo supples will start hitting Ukrainian units. Long range ATACMS and German Taurus cruise missiles may be coming on line soon for Ukraine as well as F-16s (now reportedly due in late spring/early summer). But the most critical item is artillery ammo.
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Massive flooding in the Urals and Siberian regions due to a rain on snow event has shut down oil refineries as well as key, strategic early warning radar sites.
Logistics –
Lukoil reports re-launching processing unit at Volgograd refinery after it was attacked by drones on 4th February. Unit at Nizhniy Novgorod refinery set to relaunch 2nd quarter
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 30-70 range with some local highs into the 80s. No significant precipitation in the forecast.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down 14 of 17 Shahed drones overnight. Focus of the attacks appears to have been the Mykolaiv / Odesa region.
Russian aviation continues to launch guided glide bombs towards Kharkiv.
Ukraine is losing its air defense deterrent in the Chaziv Yar region as Russian SU 25 ground attack fighters are now flying unopposed over the city launching air strikes.
Outlook —
The dominance of Russia air power over Chaziv Yar is very concerning. In the past these aircraft would be smoldering piles of metal in a nearby field. Serious lack of manpad AD systems. Russia has also accelerated the development of very large glide bombs - up to 3000 kg of “boom” being used to target Kharkiv as well as key offensive fronts in the Bakhumt and Avdiivka sectors.
The heroic little drone air force Ukraine has continues to nail Russian tanks, APC and other vehicles, stalling and even turning back major Russian attacks. As techniques and technology advances, reports are that Ukraine is shifting to more of the bomb dropping variety over the kamikaze drones - due to supply pressures and efficiency.
Russia’s desperation to counter these drones recently resulted in the now famous ‘turtle’ tank appearance on the front. A Russian tank is covered top and sides by steel plates to stop drone strikes. This may be an attempt to replace the infamous ‘cope cages’ currently over portions of tanks and other armor vehicle.
Russia has also increasingly tried switching to essentially golf cart sized buggies from China to race to offload positions for infantry. Now they are locally attempting the same with motorcycle mounted infantry. Both slightly faster than armor and able to get past mines, but the exposure is severe. War attempts unique innovations.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- No progress on ceasefire / hostage talks as Hamas continues to reject proposals.
- Today is Eid al-Fitr
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
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Biden has called on Israel to unilaterally agree to a six-to-eight week ceasefire, in an apparent retreat from his administration’s stance that conditioned a truce in Gaza on Hamas releasing some of the hostages it’s holding in the Strip
Hundreds of supply trucks are entering Gaza daily, and are almost instantly commandeered by Hamas elements and taken away from the civilians, only to have the contents sold on the black market by Hamas.
Today is the Eid al-Fitr holiday.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
U.S. officials say they have not been briefed by Israel on the potential start date of military operations in Rafah, Gaza.
Numerous IAF air strikes on Hamas related targets overnight.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Overnight and this morning, more ATGMs and mortar shells were launched from Lebanon towards Israel. Israeli army retaliated with air strikes and artillery fire.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Israeli Defense and Intelligence Officials now believe that an Iranian Retaliatory Attack to last Monday’s Airstrike on Damascus won’t come until at least the End of Eid al-Fitr on April 12th
RUMINT. Israel prepared to strike Iranian nuclear facilities if Tehran launches attack
RUMINT? Israeli media is reporting that Hezbollah is moving its members to the border area, and this activity is taking place inside Syrian army positions
NOTE - These RUMINT items may well reflect heightened worries of the impending iranian attack, but they are still well within the realm of real actions so are here to note and track.
Israeli army says it struck Syrian military infrastructure used by Hezbollah, the second strike on Syrian military infrastructure in the past day.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Israeli security forces conducted numerous raids overnight at multiple locations across the West Bank.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
USS Mason destroyed an inbound anti-ship ballistic missile today launched by Iran -backed Houthis from Yemen over the GulfofAden The ASBM was likely targeting the MV Yorktown, a U.S.-flagged, U.S.-owned vessel being escorted by USS Laboon & USS Mason, per CENTCOM
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
UN rapporteur - Israel must be forced to comply with international law
Spanish Prime Minister - Recognizing a Palestinian state is a “geopolitical interest for Europe”
——— FORECAST ————————-
All eyes continue to be on Iran and what the final design of its retaliatory strike(s) will take. Common sense suggests that it will avoid hitting Israel from launch sites in Iran in order to avoid Israeli counter strikes that it is poorly postured to defend against. This would shift the main attacks onto the “islamic resistance” and more strongly onto Hezbollah. However, Iranian leaders keep saying that they will strike Israel from Iran proper.
Potential revelation of an attack ‘window’ remains around the NOTAM for declared Iranian missile launches - April 10, 2024, at 03:30 AM to April 12, 2024. This same time frame has been reported by various govt intelligence sources to be current leading time frame for an Iranian attack.
Netanyahu has taken some flack over the sudden change in Gaza operations, especially the delay into entering Rafah. As I noted before, the pullout is more oriented towards being ready in the event of a major Hezbollah attack in conjunction with the iranian retribution attack than anything else. IAF has kept very busy hitting Hamas targets throughout Gaza, making life hard for Hamas. The brigade remaining is tasked to prevent movement back to the north from south Gaza.
Iran can’t delay its attack for too long, or become at risk of losing face. We’ll see if they do so by the 12th.
Final note for today. Hamas’ admission that it no longer has all of the hostages accounted for is almost telling Israel to go a head attack. This war, Hamas has attempted to weigh the hostages for concessions and ceasefires by Israel - a tactic that has worked in the past but this time around hasn’t. Chances are that very few of the hostages are still alive, being killed from abuse at the hands of their Hamas (and Gazan) captors as well as from friendly fire since they are being used as human shields.
Iran – HIGH Warning for supported attacks against Israeli and US interests across the globe. Apr 2, 2024
We are now in the NOTAM window for declared Iranian missile launches - April 10, 2024, at 03:30 AM to April 12, 2024, at 10:30 AM (local time). Whether or not this represents a time frame for potential Iranian missile attacks on Israel remains to be seen.