Threat Matrix

Threats surround us on a daily basis. Being able to recognize them and react are essential. This is ongoing commentary of those threats

Happy Patriot’s Day – when civilians armed with the “assault rifles” of that day disrupted the govt attempt to confiscate arms and munitions from civilians, firing the ‘shot heard round the world’.

Wuhan virus –

The monovalent Moderna and Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccines are no longer authorized for use in the United States.

Economy –

Bloomberg) — The dollar is losing its reserve status at a faster pace than generally accepted as many analysts have failed to account for last year’s wild exchange rate moves, according to Stephen Jen.
The greenback’s share in global reserves slid last year at 10 times the average speed of the past two decades as a number of countries looked for alternatives after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine triggered sanctions, Jen and his Eurizon SLJ Capital Ltd. colleague Joana Freire wrote in a note. Adjusting for exchange rate movements, the dollar has lost about 11% of its market share since 2016 and double that amount since 2008, they said.
“The dollar suffered a stunning collapse in 2022 in its market share as a reserve currency, presumably due to its muscular use of sanctions,” Jen and Freire wrote. “Exceptional actions taken by the US and its allies against Russia have startled large reserve-holding countries,” most of which are emerging economies from the so-called Global South, they said.
Jen is the former Morgan Stanley currency guru who coined the dollar smile theory.

OBSERVATION – The loss of the dollar as the reserve currency of the world is increasingly coming the front as groups like BRICS gain traction.

With the softening of the economy, consumers are starting to fall behind on their credit card and loan payments, with delinquency increasing modestly, according to executives at major U.S. banks.
Profits at Bank of America Corp, JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup Inc. beat analyst forecasts as lending giants earned more revenue from clients’ interest payments on credit cards. However, industry chiefs don’t expect the good times to last as a recession looms and customer delinquencies climb.
“We’ve seen some consumer financial health trends gradually weakening from a year ago,” Wells Fargo Chief Financial Officer Mike Santomassimo said on a conference call Friday to discuss its first quarter results.

OBSERVATION – This is one balloon who’s bursting will be significant, with even the major banks (the ones pushing credit cards) will be hurt, further limiting credit availability to small businesses being hit the hardest by a deep recession.

**
The number of housing starts tumbled in March, an indication that the housing market is taking a hit and may be falling into a recession.
Housing starts measure the change in the number of new residential buildings that began construction. Starts fell 17.2% from March 2022 to this past month, according to a Tuesday report from the Census Bureau. They are now at 1.42 million. From February to March, they fell 0.8%.

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/policy/economy/housing-starts-plunge-17-2-raising-recession-fears

OBSERVATION – Been saying it and will keep saying it. The housing market is a key bellweather indicator on the greater economy. It is currently not very healthy and that bodes ill for the economy in general which analysts are noting indicates an increasing probability of a sever recession this year.

Invasion of Illegals –

“The Department of State, in collaboration with the Department of Health and Human Services, is pleased to announce the creation of the Welcome Corps, a new private sponsorship program that empowers everyday Americans to play a leading role in welcoming refugees arriving through the U.S. Refugee Admissions Program (USRAP) and supporting their resettlement and integration as they build new lives in the United States. Over the past year, the American people have extended an extraordinarily welcoming hand to our Afghan allies, Ukrainians displaced by war, and Venezuelans and others fleeing violence and oppression. The Welcome Corps will build on Americans’ generosity of spirit by creating a durable program for Americans in communities across the country to privately sponsor refugees from around the world. The Welcome Corps is the boldest innovation in refugee resettlement in four decades.”
“In the first phase of the program, private sponsors participating in the Welcome Corps will be matched with refugees whose cases are already approved for resettlement under the USRAP. The Department of State will begin facilitating matches between private sponsors and refugees arriving within the first six months of 2023.”

OBSERVATION – Soon to be eventually forced upon the American people since biden has for all practical purposes erased our southern border.
Michael Yon has been warning of this - ““Migrants” in your living room. You may recall I have been warning this day would come. And the day will come. And you will be expected to take in “migrants” and fly a flag or symbol signifying you have “done your duty.”

**
During a Senate hearing Tuesday, Department of Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas refused to explain why an exponential surge in child smuggling and exploitation has happened under his watch and denied that the Department had lost track of 85,000 of these children.
Since the beginning of Fiscal Year 2021, 345,807 unaccompanied minors have been allowed to enter the United States through the southwest land border, U.S. Customs and Border Protection statistics show.
Thousands of these minors “have ended up in punishing jobs across the country—working overnight in slaughterhouses, replacing roofs, operating machinery in factories—all in violation of child labor laws,” the New York Times reported in February.

https://amgreatness.com/2023/04/18/mayorkas-refuses-to-explain-why-child-exploitation-has-exploded-under-his-watch-denies-dhs-lost-track-of-85000-migrant-children/

OBSERVATION - Democrats new slavery and child sex exploitation scheme. Oh and I’m sure there are plenty of republicans in on the feeding frenzy as well.

**
According to Fox News, U.S. officials are “seeing a 900% surge” in encounters with Chinese nationals at our southern border…
Footage taken by Fox News this week shows how Customs and Border Protection (CBP) are releasing busloads of Chinese nationals into the U.S. interior, just as the U.S.-Mexico border is seeing a 900% surge in encounters with migrants from the communist regime.
We have never witnessed anything like this before.
In 2022, a total of 1,987 Chinese nationals were apprehended along the southern border.

OBSERVATION – This is increasingly a very RED FLAG as these are health, single men of military age. We are increasingly at odds with China and China is very likely assisting in this migration into the US where in the event of a conflict over Taiwan, these illegals will strike internal targets in the US in terror strikes. Very, very much in line with China’s total war doctrine.

**
The number of migrants apprehended by U.S. immigration authorities after crossing the Mexican border without authorization increased by 25% in March as the Biden administration prepares for a major policy shift next month.
U.S. Border Patrol agents recorded over 162,000 apprehensions of migrants in between official ports of entry last month, a jump from the 130,000 apprehensions reported in February, federal statistics released Monday show.
The increase in migration follows a historical pattern of border crossings spiking in the spring. Despite the uptick, the number of migrant apprehensions last month was lower than the tallies recorded in March 2021 and March 2022.

OBSERVATION - Dispite biden’s claims to the contrary, these numbers continue to be at historical highs.

CW2/Domestic violence –

RUMINT that the ferals in Chicago are planning a repeat performance next Saturday.

**
Follow-on to my observations of the Transtifa and racial violence increase. The resent lootings and overall violence levels should be a RED flag when one considers how these mobs may react if we hit a severe recession/depression. They simply don’t have the coping mechanisms nor smarts to do anything but go even more violent.

**
Unrest continues in Akron OH. The details of the shooting and the string of tragic events in Walker’s life are detailed in the Ohio Attorney General’s case file released Monday after a grand jury declined to indict the eight officers who shot him. Akron and the attorney general’s office have refused to release the names of the eight officers.
Shot last June in a traffic stop.

OBSERVATION – BLM appears to be waking up wanting its share of the rioting spotlight.

Strategic Activity / Deployments –

USS Carl Vinson to join Nimitz CSG currently stationed near Taiwan. Combined with the USS Ronald Reagan CSG based in Japan, that places three carrier strike groups in the PRC/ROC AO

China –

After the FBI arrested two men in connection with a Chinese ‘secret police station’in New York, activists say there may be as many as six other similar illegal outposts across the US.
In addition to the Manhattan outpost that was shut down on Monday, Chinese police operate another station elsewhere in New York City, and one in Los Angeles, according to a New York Post report citing the advocacy group Safeguard Defenders.

OBSERVATION – Again, stories of these “police stations” have been floating around for many months now. This is just now gaining attention as tensions increase with China over Taiwan.

Russia -

WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russian forces have initiated an offensive who’s declared goals are to reach and secure the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast borders — an objective that Russian Chief of General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov had also outlined on December 22, 2022. Troop and equipment build up is being noted

This offensive action is focused on several fronts –
1) the Svatove-Kreminna front,
2) Bahkmut region,
3) Donetsk region and
4) Zaporizhizhia Oblast around the town of Vuhledar.

Analysts are noting that the Russian offensive operations are winding down. Some offensive operation will continue to be attempted, however, a lot of assessment indicates they’ve lost the capability to sustain a credible offensive to try to capture the Donbas region having frittered away resources against Bahkmut.

Russia is also capable of launching cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure - primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.

While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.

********

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Monday during a visit to Brazil that Moscow wanted the conflict in Ukraine to end as soon as possible. At a news conference with his Brazilian counterpart Mauro Vieira, Lavrov thanked Brazil for its “understanding of the genesis of the situation in Ukraine” and said Russia had “an interest” in the conflict ending as soon as possible.

Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures with highs now reaching the 60’s with light rain over most of the forecast period.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Fighting continued to be fierce at Bakhmut with Russian forces attempting to breach the current Ukraine defensive set up along the rail line through the town. . A Russian push southwest of Bakhmut is now threatening a crossroads of the H-32 supply road near the village of Kostaintynivka .

Some increased activity all along the LOC west-northwest of Donetsk. This includes what appears to be an increased attempt to encircle Avdiivka.

Ukrainian air defense shot down 10 of 12 Russian drones in Odesa region overnight. There are hits at resorts, no casualties. Ukrainian air defense also shot down 6 Shahed drones near Zaporizhzhia , 1 near Dnipro city and 5 Shahed drones in Zaporizhzhia.

The Svatove-Kreminna, Zaporizhizhia and Crimean fronts were relatively quiet, with mostly scattered and sporatic Russian artillery strikes and minimal ground attacks. Russian probing attacks noted southwest of Kreminna.

OUTLOOK –
With the fight for Bakhmut still fierce, it appears that propaganda/PR trends continue to be projected. Russia now seems to be calling for peace talks - are they nervous about the impending offensive? Talk on the general Ukraine side – they are undermanned and under equipped for an offensive and may have to put it off for a year some say. Lull the Russians into complacency? Hold both sides at arms length for now.

Still the big question of when. Well things are still pretty wet and muddy. But since this is Ukraine’s terf, they may have a better feel for when conditions would be right.

Poland –

Poland has started installing additional security surveillance systems along its border with the Russian province of Kaliningrad, RMF 24 reported on April 18.

Saudi Arabia –

The Saudi foreign minister visited Syria for the first time since the civil war began in 2011. Last week the Syrian foreign minister visited Saudi Arabia and both agreed to end Syria’s international isolation.

Mexico -

The Mexican President has accused the United States of conducting “Espionage Operations” against his Country in an attempt to cause Destabilization in the Region; he further stated that the Mexican Armed Forces will begin Restricting Intelligence from U.S. Agencies.

OBSERVATION – More disrespect from Mexico.

Africa general –

Sudan - Separatist forces in Sudan are believed to have opened fire on a convoy of U.S. diplomats traveling in the nation’s capital of Khartoum on Monday as rival factions continued a bitter conflict over control of the country.

The Japanese Government has announced that they have begun preparations for the Deployment of Aircraft from the Japanese Self-Defense Force to assist in the Evacuation of Japanese and Foreign Citizens from Sudan due to “Deterioration of Security Conditions within the Country.”

OBSERVATION – plan for and extended and brutal civil war. Countries are trying to get their civilians out of the line of fire.

Been looking closely at dialing in what I post here rather than be a vacuum of everything. My purpose continues to be those items that pose a threat to the US and in a way a threat to me and my family. This is just part of my OODA loop.

WOOPS, didn’t add the ping list yesterday.

Globalism / Great Reset –

Now rice is a new villan in the GGR’s climate change scheme as producing too much greenhouse gasses and consumption/production needs to be drastically reduced.

Economy –

FED official says inflation won’t return to 2% for at least two years.

OBSERVATION - This has been noted by economists for many months now, now only being admitted to by the Fed. This basically means high prices and more inflation while the fed rate increases continue to hammer sectors that need access to credit.

**
The global rice shortfall forecast for 2022/2023 would come in at 8.7 million tonnes.
That would mark the largest global rice deficit since 2003/2004, when the global rice markets generated a deficit of 18.6 million tonnes.

OBSERVATION – Food shortages are a key component of civil disturbances in the third world.

**
J.B. Hunt Transport Services Inc., the fourth largest trucking company in the US, reported Monday first-quarter profit and revenue that missed expectations, as it explained volumes and revenue per truckload fell amid fears of a “freight recession.”
“To start, we’re in a challenging freight environment where there is deflationary price pressure for an industry that continues to face inflationary cost pressures,” President Shelley Simpson told investors in a post-earnings conference call.
Cargo demand has been softening as consumers spend more money on services than goods. Inflation and soaring credit card rates also hurt consumer demand.
According to Bloomberg, the latest data from American Trucking Association shows the truck tonnage index dropped 5.4% in March versus February, the largest decline since Aug. 2012.
“Falling home construction, decreasing factory output and soft retail sales all hurt contract freight tonnage,” said Bob Costello, chief economist for the ATA.

OBSERVATION - Remember just a year ago there was a shortage of trucks to meet demand. Now the reverse, in part note that this is due to the housing market collapse. This is just one example of the impacts that housing has on the broader economy. This IMHO points to a recession in the offing.

CW2/Domestic violence –

RUMINT that the ferals in Chicago are planning a repeat performance next Saturday.

**
Tensions remain high in Akron OH, with police using pepper spray after BLM & far-left rioters hurled projectiles at officers. The rioters are angry police weren’t indicted for shooting dead a black gunman last year following a car chase.

OBSERVATION – I would expect that things really break loose this weekend.

Domestic / International Terror (modified)-

Moved here from Invasion of Illegals. Increasing concerns of the surge in Chinese men into the country and that they may be shock troops for domestic attacks on infrastructure and civilians.

Strategic Activity / Deployments –

Five members of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, including the chair and the heads of the Army, Navy, Marine Corps, and Air Force, are set to leave their positions this year. The commanders of Northern Command, Space Command, and Cyber Command commanders are also changing. Former National Security Council staffer Peter Feaver said this is a “legacy moment” for the Biden administration. According to current and former Defense Department officials, Air Force General C.Q. Brown is the frontrunner to replace current Joint Chiefs chair Army Gen. Mark Milley.

OBSERVATION – “LEGACY” in a non-favorable way.

**
The Air Force Global Strike Command conducted an operational test launch of an unarmed Minuteman III ICMB last night from Vandenberg SFB. During this scheduled and routine test, the launch command was delivered from a US Navy E-6B Mercury aircraft.

POLITICAL FRONT –

A lot of political infighting over the debt ceiling combined with increasing evidence/proof of criminal activity by the biden syndicate. Lots of screaming and chest beating in various committee hearings.

China –

Beijing is embarking on the “most significant” expansion of its footprint in Antarctica after new satellite images revealed the communist regime has resumed construction on a fifth polar station.
The new station, located on Inexpressible Island near the Ross Sea, could double as a spying operation, a Washington-based think tank suggests.
“While essential for tracking and communicating with China’s growing array of scientific satellites, ground stations can support intelligence collection,” the report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies says.
“Importantly, the station’s position may enable it to collect signals intelligence from U.S.-allied Australia and New Zealand and could collect telemetry data on rockets launching from newly established space facilities in both countries.”

OBSERVATION – You can count on it that these bases are dual purpose.

**
(Reuters) - China and Iran are becoming increasingly brazen in their attempts to silence dissidents on American soil and influence U.S. policy, the FBI warned on Wednesday.

In a news briefing with reporters about transnational repression, FBI counterintelligence officials urged victims to come forward, saying the bureau is tracking a growing trend of foreign authoritarian regimes breaching U.S. laws to intimidate certain communities.

The officials said the governments have at times resorted to using private investigators to conduct surveillance on dissidents and that several criminal cases have been brought by federal prosecutors involving their use.
“A lot of these are new tactics and lines that are being crossed that we have not seen China and Iran do on U.S. soil in previous investigations,” one FBI counterintelligence official said. He added that the FBI hoped to raise awareness of such trends and alert the private investigator sector and state and local law enforcement.

OBSERVATION – Took the US long to take this threat seriously. Note from “Domestic / International Terror (modified)” above, China has an underground network already well established in the US that these Chinese ‘immigrants’ can be fitted into under cover. Perhaps some sort of reduced “Red Dawn” scenario is not too outlandish.

North/South Korea –

(AP) — North Korean leader Kim Jong Un said his country has built its first-ever military spy satellite and that he planned to launch it on an undisclosed date, state media reported Wednesday.
Previous missile and rocket tests have demonstrated that North Korea can send satellites into space, but many experts question whether it has cameras sophisticated enough to use for spying from a satellite because only low-resolution images were released after past test launches.

OBSERVATION – Such a satellite at this stage is more for show and internal propaganda than useful for spying. What is to be seen is the orbit NK launches on. Most likely a polar orbit – common for spy satellites. NK has successfully launched a couple into polar orbit a few years back – sparking concerns of a potential EMP attack (the satellite was at the presumed optimum altitude for such a strike). With the essentially off the shelf technology, camera and other sensors would be relatively good – already seeing similar in commercial imagery satellites that has provided a lot of details on the Ukraine war.

Japan –

Concerns that Japan is not reaching its conscription goals to expand its military to counter Chinese expansionism.

Russia -

WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

This offensive action is focused on several fronts –
1) the Svatove-Kreminna front,
2) Bahkmut region,
3) Donetsk region and
4) Zaporizhizhia Oblast around the town of Vuhledar.

While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.

********

Vladimir Putin fired an admiral in charge of his Pacific Fleet in a sign that the Russian despot is furious that military drills that were meant to send a message of strength to the West were a flop.
Putin sacked Admiral Sergei Avakyants, 66, the commander of his Pacific Fleet, as the vast military drills he had apparently overseen were still underway.
The move to axe Avakyants was confirmed by Deputy Prime Minister Yuri Trutnev.
NOTE – This was a high visibility exercise designed to impress China and intimidate the US. Russian readiness apparently has hit all time lows for the Pacific Fleet as it has for the rest of Russian armed forces.

**
Russia is using ‘ghost’ spy ships that are disguised as fishing trawlers off the UK coast to map out wind farms and communication cables for sabotage attacks in case it goes to war with the West, a probe has claimed.
The fleet of Russian ships, disguised as fishing trawlers and research vessels, are sailing through the North Sea to collect data on where wind farms, gas pipelines as well as power and internet cables are located, it has been claimed.
The vessels carry underwater surveillance to map out how the infrastructure is connected with the aim to plan sabotage attacks against the West, a documentary aired by public broadcasters in Denmark, Norway, Sweden and Finland has claimed.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11989871/Russia-using-ghost-spy-ships-UK-coast-map-North-Sea-wind-farms-sabotage-attacks.html

NOTE – Classical Cold War style spying.

RUMINT-
Russians are evacuating civilians along the southern front, there are signs of imminent military action, and Ukraine’s Deputy Defense Minister admits the counteroffensive has started.
NOTE – Reports of mandatory evacuations for the region started circulating a couple weeks ago. See previous TMs

Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures with highs now reaching the 60’s with light rain over most of the forecast period.

RUMINT –
Rumors that the Ukraine offensive has started in the Zaporizhizhia Front region – in line towards Crimea. WARNING – a lot of the statements on the start and focus on the offensive when it does kick off will be PSYOPS and propaganda. As noted under Russian RUMINT report that people are fleeing out of the occupied Zaporizhizhia region. IMHO it is still a little early for the offensive to start due to soil conditions, but I’m not on the ground there.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Fighting continued to be fierce at Bakhmut with Russian forces attacking the northeast corner of the city. A Russian push southwest of Bakhmut is now threatening a crossroads of the H-32 supply road near the village of Kostaintynivka .

Ukrainian air defense shot down 10 of 11 Shahed drones overnight around Dnipro.

The Svatove-Kreminna, Zaporizhizhia and Crimean fronts were relatively quiet, with mostly scattered and sporatic Russian artillery strikes and minimal ground attacks

Russian Territory –
The machine-building and metallurgical ‘Kirovsky Plant’ in St. Petersburg is on fire. It is one of the biggest ones in Russia. Another of the many ‘suspicious’ fires hitting major Russian facilities of late.

OUTLOOK –
Russian forces are continuing to push Ukrainian forces back at Bakhmut. Ukraine is struggling to hold resupply routes open and will need to make a strategic decision soon. So too Russia will need to make a strategic decision whether to press the attack and tie up more resources that will be desperately needed to counter any Ukrainian offensive. Any disengagement by either side would suggest that the offensive is close at hand. For Ukraine to free up offensive assets and for Russia to try to reconstitute an operational reserve.

Also noting Russia tossing Iranian made drones at Ukraine again. Absent are the more advanced missiles used in the past. Multiple speculatory explanations include stock running out to the more likely thought that they are being held in reserve to strike critical targets to blunt the Ukrainian offensive. Clearly they have given up on their strategic efforts to shut the Ukraine power grid down.

Another observation – Ukraine has received a fair amount of MIG fighter/bombers or late. Ukraine has a lot of pilots trained on these aircraft and I suspect that when the offensive kicks off Ukraine will try to establish local air superiority in support of its attack. This is something that Russia has failed to do in its year plus war effort. I suspect that US guidance and tactics will be involved here, with pre attack SEAD missions to take out most of the Russian ADA systems leaving the fighters to counter Russian fighters. Could be very interesting to watch.

Africa general –

Sudan -
Looks like countries positioning themselves to and initiating evacuation plans as fighting continues. Of growing concern is that the conflict will spill out into adjacent countries.

A Libyan militia leader and the Egyptian military have sent military support to opposing sides in Sudan - WSJ
“The Libyan militia leader have sent at least one plane to fly military supplies to Sudan’s RSF. Egypt sent warplanes & pilots to back the Sudanese military”

The Sudanese Armed Forces are reporting that they have repelled an major attack by the Ethiopian Army on the “Disputed” Al-Fashaga Region utilizing Tanks, Armored Vehicles, and Infantry; according to Sudanese Sources the Ethiopian Forces suffered severe losses and retreated. Sudanese Military alongside Allies in the Region are reported to be monitoring “Unusual Activity” from the Ethiopian Military along the border with Sudan with additional attacks being expected.

Seems that some sort of U.S. Military Buildup is taking place in Djibouti which is roughly 750 Miles from the Sudanese Capital of Khartoum. So far at least, 9 USAF C-17A transports that have routed to or have since departed Djibouti in the past 24 hours. Most likely preparations for the evacuation of U.S. Diplomats and Nationals from the country as nearby countries around Sudan appear to be on the verge of joining the conflict causing it to possibly “Boil Over”.

Rapid Support Forces reportedly are supported by Iran, who may well be seeking another friendly country in the region.

Misc of Note –

More massive tornados have struck Oklahoma and surrounding regions. Double check your tornado plans and preparations as this looks to be one of the worst tornado seasons in quite a while.

Globalism / Great Reset –

Andrew Bridgen MP gave an informative speech during a Westminster Hall debate on Monday warning of the dangers of handing more powers over to the World Health Organisation by way of the UK signing up to the proposed changes to the International Health Regulations and the Pandemic Treaty.

“The WHO is domiciled in Geneva and so has special status. Its employees are exempt from tax and they and their families all have diplomatic immunity. It is indeed a supranational body, unelected and unaccountable,” Mr. Bridgen said during his speech.

“It is funded like many of our regulators in the UK: the Medicines and Healthcare Products Regulatory Agency is 86% funded by industry sources, and the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation, in its members’ personal declarations, declared more than £1 billion of interests in big pharma, the thing it was set up to regulate. That undermines public confidence. The WHO is no longer anything like majority-funded by its member states—the ones it is seeking to control. It is 86% funded by external sources.

“The second-largest donor after Germany is the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, and I think Gavi is the fifth, so if we add those together, they are the biggest donors to the WHO. We have to ask: why are they doing this? They are also the biggest investors in pharmaceuticals and the experimental mRNA technology that proved so profitable for those who proposed and produced it during the last pandemic.

“The WHO is promoting the influence of private-public partnerships … Anyone can buy influence at the WHO; it will just cost them money.
“I suggest that right hon. and hon. Members read the treaty. It is a massive extension of powers. At the drop of a hat, one man – Mr Tedros – can call for massive powers for the WHO. Not only will he call for them; when he takes the powers, he will decide when the pandemic or emergency is over and when he will give the powers back to this House, where elected representatives are supposed to be representing the interests of our constituents. All that will be suspended.”

https://expose-news.com/2023/04/20/mps-debate-pandemic-treaty/

OBSERVATION – The WHO meeting to finalize the global grab of national health care decisions is fast approaching. So far, the WHO has been navigating the effort off most everyone’s radar screens.

**
U.S. Senators Kyrsten Sinema, an independent of Arizona, and Cynthia Lummis, Republican of Wyoming, have introduced Senate Bill 884, also known as “the Improving Digital Identity Act of 2023.”

The bill’s text states:
“The lack of an easy, affordable, reliable, and secure way for organizations, businesses, and government agencies to identify whether an individual is who they claim to be online creates an attack vector that is widely exploited by adversaries in cyberspace and precludes many high-value transactions from being available online. Incidents of identity theft and identity fraud continue to rise in the United States, where more than 293,000,000 people were impacted by data breaches in 2021.”

The bill calls for the formation of a public-private partnership to bring this digital ID system into being.

“The public and private sectors should collaborate to deliver solutions that promote confidence, privacy, choice, equity, accessibility, and innovation. The private sector drives much of the innovation around digital identity in the United States and has an important role to play in delivering digital identity solutions.”

OBSERVATION – What have I (and others) been saying for years now - the GGR wants a global digital ID system that is also incorporated into a digital currency controlled by your EGR score. We will not see this combined package appear all at once, but incrementally, piece by peace. Digital ID came to the forefront as a wuhan vaccination passport, now they are trying to justify its use for other means. Eventually all these pieces will come together.

**
Our food supply has been one of the major targets of the WEF for a while, with the infamous ‘let them eat bugs’ campaign. The latest threat that has been evolving is the use of mRNA ‘vaccines’ in livestock. We’ve seen just how lethal these ‘vaccines’ have been in humans, so to expect something different in animals would be insanity. Some have taken notice and are acting. At least five states have introduced bills restricting the use of controversial mRNA technology or gene therapies in livestock or demand full disclosure to consumers on product packaging.

The states considering legislation include North Dakota, Tennessee, Arizona, Idaho, and Missouri.

OBSERVATON – One reported reason behind mRNA ‘vaccination’ of livestock is to introduce the wuhan mRNA ‘vaccines’ to humans via food supply. The genocidal globalists just don’t want to stop the spread of their gene manipulation.

Wuhan virus –

Latest twitter drop demonstrates that Fauci lied under oath – again. But rest assured that nothing will happen to him.

Economy –

The National Weather Service forecasts most of Kansas, parts of Oklahoma, Colorado, and Texas will continue to suffer severe drought. The drought in this area is now comparable to the most severe droughts recorded in 2011, the 1950s, and the 1930s.

OBSERVATION – Key wheat production areas, not good for long term food prices as so much relies on wheat flour. This will also impact cattle herds due to lack of feed. On the flip side, analysts are forecasting a climate shift to El Niño by the summer. El Niño conditions have driven some of the best crop yield years on record.

**
The latest Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) report, (a leading economic indicator) published on April 20, fell 1.2 percent in March, for the twelfth month in a row, higher than The Wall Street Journal’s estimate of a 0.7 percent drop.

The downturn marked its largest single-month decline since April 2020, when the pandemic and the resulting lockdowns slammed the American economy.
“The U.S. LEI fell to its lowest level since November of 2020, consistent with worsening economic conditions ahead,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, senior manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board.

The LEI tumbled 4.5 percent over the six-month period between September 2022 and March 2023, a more rapid drop over the 3.5 percent from the previous six-month period.

“The Conference Board forecasts that economic weakness will intensify and spread more widely throughout the U.S. economy over the coming months, leading to a recession starting in mid-2023,” she warned.

https://www.theepochtimes.com/leading-economic-indicator-sinks-to-lowest-level-in-28-months-worsening-economic-conditions-ahead_5209930.html?utm_source=partner&utm_campaign=BonginoReport

OBSERVATION - Watching this train wreck develop for a year now, more and more indicators are converging in this summer. To make matters worse, this will also coincide with debt ceiling deadlines. GGR / WEF may well be rubbing their hands together in anticipation of the economic disaster that could ensue.

**
The manufacturing slump in the region covered by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia continued in April, a report from the Philly Fed said Thursday.
The Philly Fed’s index of business activity fell to -31.3 in April from -23.2 in March. Readings below zero indicate contracting activity.

OBSERVATION – Another indicator of the coming storm.

Invasion of Illegals –

“Title 42,” which allowed for the quick expulsion of all illegal immigrants crossing the southern border, is set to end May 11, the title was a potent deterrent when former President Donald Trump applied it to almost 90% of all illegal crossing immigrants and far less so under the President, who expelled only 35%.
Reportedly in border cities like Juarez, thousands of immigrants are living in abandoned buildings, sleeping on the streets, and many hundreds more a day show up on freight trains. A human tidal wave is building all over Mexico and farther south.

OBSERVATION – You think the crisis at the border has been bad so far, the last remaining working tool to keep things in some degree of check is evaporating and setting us up for potentially staggering numbers of illegals - such an influx will certainly increase crime and stress on the economy – we only need so many house cleaners.

Biden / Harris watch –

BIDEN: “I’ve flown over more land that has been burned to the ground because of forest fires than the entire size of the state of Maryland, which is about the size of Delaware.”

CW2/Domestic violence –

RUMINT that the ferals in Chicago are planning a repeat performance next Saturday.

**
U.S. Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas said Friday that the agency would create a task force to figure out how to use artificial intelligence to do everything from protecting critical infrastructure to screening cargo to ferret out products made with slave labor.

OBSERVATION – AI would also scour social media/interwebs more efficiently than humans to build a database of ‘domestic terrorists’ that could be potentially used to target US citizens in the event things start going sideways.

**
Target announced a wave of store closures across several states. According to the Daily Mail, four locations in Maryland, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Virginia would close on May 13. The four Target stores “were rolled out about 10 years ago as a way to reach customers in more urban areas,” the Mail added.
Target lost roughly $400 million last November “due to organized gangs of shoplifters who had been stealing merchandise from its stores.” The company’s Chief Financial Officer Michael Fiddelke predicted that the company will incur losses of up to $600 million by the end of 2023.

OBSERVATION – the big chain stores are accelerating their departure from blue city hell zones. Soon the looters / ferals will move outward to ‘richer’ surrounding suburban areas for their free stuff. Saw this happen in kalifornia the past couple years. This will increase the potential for conflict between the locals and these looters who will also target the homes of those in these suburbs.

**
In a “call to arms” posted onto TikTok, a user who goes by the name “Tara” and who identifies as a “poly trans lesbian” threatened Christian conservatives and urged fellow travelers to “arm up” to fight them in a recent rant on the Chinese-owned platform.
“If you back a wild animal into a corner, they will become a dangerous animal,” he said. “So if you want to die on that hill of yours of righteousness and moral majority, then you go right ahead.”
Tara, who doesn’t come close to passing as female, threatened violence against women who object to biological males invading their public restrooms.
“I dare you to try and stop me from going into a women’s bathroom,” he warned. “It will be the last mistake you ever make.”

OBSERVATION – Just another example of the call to violence by transtifa misfits out there. Definitely a serious violence streak being called for.

Domestic / International Terror (modified)-

Ramadan is ending today, but still be alert for some spill over.

Strategic Activity / Deployments –

USAF activity to Africa continues at elevated levels.

POLITICAL FRONT –

Sewage, sewage and more sewage. Proof has come out that the biden campaign and more specifically the current Sec State ‘coordinated’ with former intelligence officials to call hunter’s lap top a Russian disinfomation plan. That lie has blown up in their faces, but don’t expect anyone to go to jail over it. Why? Because the DoJ will refuse to make any moves to do so.

In related, apparently the AG himself is the one directing the DoJ/FBI to cover up official investigations into hunter. This places the AG under perjury charges for his congressional testimony where he categorically denied involvement is such. Once again, Garland won’t see jail time nor removal from office as such.

More corruption from the J6 kangaroo committee, with more reports that they illegally obtained emails from many individuals, one of which being Fox News host Mark Levin.

China –

China now offering to negotiate a peace agreement between Israel and the Palestinians.

Russia -

WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

This offensive action is focused on several fronts –
1) the Svatove-Kreminna front,
2) Bahkmut region,
3) Donetsk region and
4) Zaporizhizhia Oblast around the town of Vuhledar.

While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.

********
Economic Impact –

Bloomberg. The USA and its allies are considering the possibility of introducing an almost complete ban on exports to Russia, writes Bloomberg. The leaders of the big seven countries are discussing this idea ahead of the G7 summit in Japan in May.

Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures with highs now reaching the 60’s with light rain over most of the forecast period.

RUMINT –
Washington Post: Ukraine drew up plans to open a new front in Syria and attack Russian forces with help from SDF, which asked for air defense, training and anonymity, according to leaked docs. The plan was shelved in December.
NOTE- Highly doubtful IMHO, a huge waste to resources that Ukraine doesn’t have.

**
Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar confirmed that both defensive and offensive operations are currently underway in the eastern part of the country.
NOTE – One must take these statements at arms length as part of the propaganda leading up to the anticipated offensive.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Fighting continued to be fierce at Bakhmut with Russian forces attacking the northeast corner of the city. Recent Russian artillery fire suggests a renewed push to the northwest along the M-03 highway.

Ukrainian air defense shot down 8 of 12 Shahed drones overnight, reportedly there were hits in Vinnytsia and Poltava regions.

The Svatove-Kreminna, Zaporizhizhia and Crimean fronts were relatively quiet, with mostly scattered and sporatic Russian artillery strikes and minimal ground attacks

Analysts are noting that Ukraine has significantly increased targeting of Russian EW systems in the east.

Russian Territory –
Following videos of a huge explosion and creation of a crater in Belgorod appeared, Russian Ministry of Defense confirms that it was a failed Russian bomb - “On April 20, during the flight of the Su-34 aircraft over the city of Belgorod, an abnormal descent of aviation ammunition occurred”
NOTE – LOL, nothing to see here.

OUTLOOK –
With the fight in the east continuing hammer and tongs, more evidence is coming out that Ukraine is in the early process of shaping the battlefield for its offensive campaign. As noted above, Russian EW systems appear to be targets of choice now. Their jammers can interfere with C3 as well as drone flight links. Trying to look closely at other deeper target sets Ukraine is focusing on such as logistics, command posts and troop concentrations to give indicators where the blow will strike the hardest. Ukraine is being tight lipped about those targets so far.

For reference, we saw a similar process of shaping the battlefield in the weeks prior to the Kharkiv and Kherson counteroffensives.

Israel –

“Those who partner with Iran, partner with misery. Look at Lebanon. Look at Yemen. Look at Syria. Look at Iraq,” Netanyahu cautioned amid the warming ties between Iran and Saudi Arabia, describing the above countries as near failed states.

**
Next week Israel celebrates Yom HaZikaron (Memorial Day) beginning Monday, followed by Yom Ha’atzmaut (Independence Day) on Tuesday. Once those days of remembrance and celebration are complete, analysts/observers note tha the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) will be free to carry out whatever is necessary to protect the nation.

May could well be a very HOT month for the middle east.

Iran –

Iran claims its navy forced a US submarine to the surface as it entered the Gulf, Iranian navy commander Shahram Irani told state television on Thursday, in the latest report of an apparent confrontation between Iranian and US forces in the Gulf.

OBSERVATION – Color this questionable. Iran has a history of propagandistic declarations like this. However, it also historically gone out of its way to play chicken with US naval vessels in the straits of Hormoz region.

**
The foreign minister of Iran and Jordan spoke on Thursday and agreed to meet “as soon as possible” in order to discuss relations between the two countries. This development comes after Tehran renewed its ties with Riyadh a little over a month ago.

OBSERVATION – That giant sucking sound is the collapse of US foreign policy and influence in the middle east. Everyone seems to be wanting to get buddy buddy with Iran now.

Turkey -

74-year-old Kemal Kilicdaroglu - pronounced Kilitch-daro-lu - has the biggest chance so far of unseating Turkey’s most powerful man, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, since he took power 20 years ago. A soft-spoken former civil servant, he is the very antithesis of Turkey’s grandstanding, powerful president.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65309688

Erdogan disdains the EU and is a rogue within NATO. Kilicdaroglu intends to revive Turkey’s bid to join the EU. Kilicdaroglu’s political coalition, The National Alliance, also wants to end Erdogan’s opposition to Sweden joining NATO. Erdogan’s poor response to the February 2023 earthquakes has become a major issue. So has Turkey’s rampant inflation.

OBSERVATION – Running on a pro-economy platform, his party is currently leading Erdogan but so far neither appears to have the 50+% needed to avoid a run-off. His policies are aligned to remove factors that have kept Turkey from being accepted into the EU’s economic sphere, potentially relieving many of the ongoing economic woes of the country.

Central / South America General-

Chilean President Gabriel Boric announced a plan to nationalize Chile’s lithium industry, the second largest in the world. The move could force some U.S. mining companies, such as North Carolina-based Albemarle Corp, to leave the country.

Africa general –

Sudan –
Another Afghanistan fiasco is underway in the Sudan. An unknown number of American citizens (estimated 19,000 American citizens ) remain trapped in Sudan, and it may already be too late to get them out. The civil war in Sudan between two warlords reached the capital of Khartoum almost a week ago, and yet no one apparently had thought to extract US diplomatic personnel and private citizens from the country.

The embassy sent out an alert that it’s already too late for any normal exit: The airport, located in central Khartoum, is closed but would be inoperable even if it reopened due to damage from bombardment and fighting. The roughly 70 U.S. staff at the embassy have no options to leave Sudan on their own without immense risk to their safety. For the most part, U.S. diplomats in Sudan are unaccompanied, meaning they do not have their family with them at what’s considered a challenging post, a State Department official said.

US forces are apparently staging in Djibouti for some kind of extraction operation with 15 USAF C-17A transports that have flown to there.

Evidence has emerged of Russia’s Wagner arming militia leader battling Sudan’s army. This would parallel other reports that Iran is doing the same.

OBSERVATION – the situation there is rapidly growing into a potential regional conflict.

Globalism / Great Reset –

The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation has been giving millions of dollars to a nongovernmental organization that tries to normalize commercial sex work and education on gender identities for children 10 and under.

The International Planned Parenthood Federation (IPPF) is made up of 120 independent organizations in over 146 countries and has received over $80 million from Gates. The World Health Organization has also significantly contributed to the IPPF.

The IPPF toolkit focuses heavily on the sexuality of children under 10, encouraging the teaching that “sexuality is a part of you from the moment you are born.” The organization tries very hard to make people view children as “sexual beings, regardless of their age.”

OBSERVATION – Destruction of the nuclear family is the goal of the globalists and as one peruses the interweb news it is remarkable just how many of the powerful elites are tied up in pedophilia and other child sex trafficking/porn and now enraged transgender push to mutilate all children. I honestly think Epstein is just the tip of the iceberg for a lot of this – and note, his client list is still yet to be published and criminal actions taken against them.

Economy –

Former Treasury secretary Lawrence Summers sees a “real risk” of stagflation in the U.S. economy and believes the Federal Reserve committed a mistake by not recognizing inflation earlier on.

In an April 20 podcast with journalist Kara Swisher, Summers was asked about economist Mohamed El-Erian’s warning that the crisis triggered by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) could result in cautious lending from banks and eventually stagflation—referring to an economic cycle characterized by slow growth, high unemployment, and inflation.

“I think it’s a real risk,” Summers replied. “Given where inflation is right now and given the downward pressures on the economy, I certainly think stagflation is a meaningful risk right now, and it’s probably a risk that’s underpriced in the markets.”

https://www.theepochtimes.com/stagflation-is-a-real-risk-facing-american-economy-now-former-treasury-secretary_5212910.html?utm_source=partner&utm_campaign=BonginoReport

OBSERVATION – From current inflation levels, to deflation, to hyperinflation to stagflation, these scenarios have been bantered about the economists for over a year now. With more and more economic data showing that the trends are pointing to a summer 2023 convergence and likely recession, just what will happen to prices. So far all of these scenarios are not good for the economic forecast, indicating that the US (and likely global economy) could suffer recession for more than a year.

CW2/Domestic violence –

IMHO - CW2 will not break out like CW1, but will likely develop from political violence and civil breakdown with the most likely window opening with the 2024 presidential election cycle. Growing anarchy from the left via black racist rioting, Transtifa/antifa violence added to the clear weaponization of the alphabet agencies and two tiered justice will further cause the right to weaponize. Leftists can exploit mob actions, invade government buildings and burn cities to the ground because the government ALLOWS them to. Well…how many years now have we heard the word “insurrection” over a single protest on January 6th 2021?

I suspect that when the regime jumps in with both feet, a formal CW2 will break out. I’m examining one list of steps towards a CW scenario and hope to give this some further break down then.

**
Chicago is preparing for another weekend of violence by youths following last week’s downtown rioting, assaults, arson attacks & shootings.
Youths are sharing a flyer on social media calling for a “part 2.”

A new text alert system aims to warn Chicago residents of future “teen takeovers.” This most recent “teen takeover” occurred last weekend, in which Chicago youth wreaked havoc throughout the city, committing a litany of crimes including shootings, arson, theft, and assault.

The text alert initiative, “Parents For Chicago,” is being funded by the nonprofit, “I’m Telling, Don’t Shoot,” launched by a local, independent philanthropist. Those wishing to sign up for the alert service can text “CHICAGOKIDS” to 21000, or email ParentsForChicago@gmail.com.

While Chicago residents have decried the violence and, now, are attempting to counter it, leadership has largely defended the youths’ crimes.

OBSERVATION - Expect this “part 2” to be bigger given that little to nothing was done to interdict the rioting last weekend. Mayor-elect Brandon Johnson has defended the rioters, saying they’re victims of society. That will only encourage more rioting. Looking to see if this will spread to other cities.

**
The “national divorce” is being more evident by the patterns of people moving the past few years.

“More than 61 percent of the counties that voted for Biden in 2020 lost population, while 65 percent of Trump-supporting counties gained population,” the Issues and Insights analysis said. The data showed that some 2,562,937 people moved from Democrat-leaning counties to Republican-leaning counties since Biden was elected in the divisive November 2020 election.

OBSERVATION – the massive shifting of population since the biden regime took control has been historic. Some are noting/complaining that the migration out of blue controlled cities/states are spreading liberals into red states – diluting them. From what I’ve seen here in the Redoubt region, while some blues have moved in, many more reds have come, making the state redder. Recent voting kinda confirms that further. Culturally, urban immigrants are intimidated by the rural nature of the region - though they romantize about it. That is until reality hits. However, those wishing to return to their communist utopias are now hindered by an adverse housing market that has made loans bearly affordable, and the prices for homes dropping – placing these out of place blues underwater.

Strategic Activity / Deployments –

US still developing “options” for the rescue of Americans trapped in Sudan.

POLITICAL FRONT –

Biden has recently signed an executive order that could potentially affect millions of Americans in the name of environmental justice. The order is an attempt to further strengthen federal agencies and aims to address so-called environmental “inequities” that impact communities of “color, low-income communities, and indigenous communities.”

OBSERVATION – I think by now we all understand what is being said here. This will be more programs to transfer wealth to blacks and other minorities while denying the maintenance and development of infrastructure project that would benefit all. Interesting to note that democrat controlled cities and states are the worst at addressing environmental issues in their communities - even with funding. Flint MI is a prime example. Additionally, red areas will face retribution environmentally for not being blue – case in point Palestine OH.

North/South Korea –

See Japan preps for NK satellite launch below under Japan.

Japan –

Japan on Saturday ordered the country’s military to prepare countermeasures against any rocket debris that falls on its territory as North Korea prepares a satellite launch. The rocket carrying North Korea’s first reconnaissance satellite could be launched within days.

Kyodo news agency cited government sources as saying the SDF would prepare to deploy ground-based Patriot Advanced Capability-3 interceptor missiles and Aegis-equipped destroyer warships carrying sea-based Standard Missile-3 interceptor projectiles.

“We will make preparations to be able to respond to any circumstance that could cause damage to Japan,” one of the sources said.
Japanese Defense Minister Yasukazu Hamada said the country’s Self-Defense Forces (SDF) needed to be at increased readiness.
Hamada could potentially “order the destruction of ballistic missiles” and said the military’s preparations should include the deployment of troops to the southern prefecture of Okinawa to “minimize damage,” according to a statement from the Defense Ministry.

OBSERVATION – It would be interesting to see if Japan has to fire at any launch vehicle. This largely depends on the orbit NK decides on. Most common orbits are polar which would take the rocket over China and Russian rather than the northern islands of Japan.

Russia -

WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

This offensive action is focused on several fronts –
1) the Svatove-Kreminna front,
2) Bahkmut region,
3) Donetsk region and
4) Zaporizhizhia Oblast around the town of Vuhledar.

While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.

********

Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures with highs now reaching the 60’s with light rain over most of the forecast period.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Fighting continued to be fierce at Bakhmut with Russian forces attacking the northeast corner of the city. Recent Russian artillery fire suggests a continued push to the northwest along the M-03 highway.

Ground fighting at Avdiyivka appears to have fallen off, while to the west-southwest Russians appear to be continuing to press their attack along the Ukrainian M-04 road.

Third night of Shahed drones strikes, this time appearing to focus on the Zaporizhzhia region.

The Svatove-Kreminna, Zaporizhizhia and Crimean fronts continue to be relatively quiet, with mostly scattered and sporatic Russian artillery strikes and minimal ground attacks

Russian Territory –
In Belgorod, about 3,000 people are being evacuated from 17 apartment buildings within a radius of 200 meters from the recent explosion crater. Also a second, unexploded bomb was found.

**
3 villages in Kursk region without power as result of shelling.

OUTLOOK –
No change in the conflict in the east. Eyes on Ukrainian movements and battlefield shaping operations (and those operations will be kept under tight OPSEC).

Russia has thrown a lot of Shahed drones into Ukraine the past few days in a very disorganized manner. Earlier this year the drones were a key component of saturating the Ukraine ADA network, enabling higher success using the larger missiles against electrical grid targets. Those expensive, highly accurate missiles have largely been absent from the battlefield, with the only real other systems used being S-300 ADA missiles in ground attack roles. One suspects that the Russian ballistic/cruise missiles are being reserved to attempt to counter the Ukrainian offensive by targeting C3CM elements. The question is will be are Russian targeting capabilities able to get these targets to delivery systems in a timely manner.

Israel –

Violent clashes broke out on Friday afternoon between Hamas and Fatah supporters at the Temple Mount, according to a report by N12. Videos of the clashes were posted on social media.

OBSERVATION - With elections pending in the West Bank this will get hotter. Already, much of the conflict has occurred with Hamas aligned groups launching terror attacks against Israeli citizens in the East Jerusalem and Nablus area. These attacks have been designed to mobilize the radical factions there against Fatah. This is shaping up to be a repeat of the campaign Hamas waged in Gaza to kick Fatah out of there as well.

Africa general –

Sudan –
Situation in Sudan continues to deteriorate, with both sides receiving military support from surrounding/nearby nations as the conflict threatens to spread.

With the fighting in Sudan entering its second week, the nation’s military agreed to coordinate evacuation efforts for diplomats and citizens from the US, UK, China and France. In a statement, the military said the Saudi diplomatic mission has already been evacuated.

The news comes a day after the US State Department said the situation was still too risky for an evacuation of embassy personnel. Later in the day, the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) said they were ready to “partially” open “all airports” in Sudan to evacuate foreign citizens. However, it is not possible to verify which airports they control. Khartoum’s international airport has been closed due to the violence, with foreign embassies - including the UK and US - unable to bring their citizens home.

Satellite images analyzed by CNN, show one Russian Ilyushin-76 transport aircraft shuttling between two key Libyan airbases belonging to Haftar and used by the Wagner group. Sources tell CNN the plane supplied Sudan’s RSF with weaponry. Other countries like Egypt are in the process of supplying weaponry to the Sudan Army.

There are reports and images circulating that also suggest RSF elements have captured short range surface-to-air missiles off the Sudan Army like the Russian made Osa-AKM and unverified reports Libyan militias may have supplied anti-aircraft weapons. Also, reports of the RSF attacking prisons to release criminals, the cross border organized smuggling into Libya and other border smuggling operations.

OBSERVATION – The failure of the embassy and State Dept to initiate evacuation of embassy staff and US citizens is again unforgiveable. Staging of US forces continue in Djibouti while biden et al tries to determine if it will be necessary to support the evacuation with US military forces. The word is the regime is trying to ‘develop options’.

An estimated 16,000 private U.S. citizens are registered with the embassy as being in Sudan, but the State Department has cautioned that that figure is likely inaccurate as there is no requirement for Americans to register nor is there a requirement to notify the embassy when they leave.

Currently the 1st BDE, 82d ABN is on DRF 1 status. But with no functioning airfield in Khartoum the evacuation risks are high! MANPADs could pose a significant threat to evac aircraft – mostly helicopters. The Sudan Army as the representatives of the govt would likely support, not interdict evacuation operations. The RSF would be very likely to try to shoot down aircraft – in part because 1) it is being supported by Iranian and Wagner elements and 2) it would delegitimize the Sudan army and current govt. Some could say that RSF preventing evacuations would be a defacto hostage scenario for them.

Practical note – an airborne operation/drop to try to secure the Khartoum int’l airport would be dangerously close to being a failure. Heavy losses could occur in the drop and any resupply via risky air ops. I suspect a different operation that would involve forces entering the country from the currently developing staging area at to Camp Lemmonier in Djibouti possibly establishing a forward operating airbase in the vicinity of Al Qadarif, Somilia. From there ground access towards Khartoum could be attempted. Issues being that long term ground support passage from Djibouti would have to be arranged with Ethiopia.

Needless to say this is another fine mess biden has gotten us into.

Globalism / Great Reset –

WHO Assembly meeting is still scheduled for May 21-30, 2023, at which time it is antipated they will institute the modifications to the pandemic treaty, usurping the will of the people in signatory countries for a globalist medical tyranny. Keep this date on your calendar.

Economy –

More than a month after the failure of the Silicon Valley Bank, Moody’s Investors Service downgraded 11 investors. Six U.S. banks were placed on Moody’s review list in March, per Reuters.

All six banks put for review failed and were downgraded with the new study, including Comerica Inc., First Republic Bank, Intrust Financial Corporation, UMB Financial Corp, Western Alliance Bancorp and Zions Bancorporation.

The other downgraded banks include Associated Banc-Corp., First Hawaiian Inc., Washington Federal Inc. and U.S. Bank, reported WSJ.

OBSERVATION – Banking is still on shaky ground and the question becomes can they weather the implosion of the housing and new car markets (new, high interest rates) combined with a recession.

**
U.S. foreclosure filings jumped 22% in the first quarter compared to the same period a year ago, according to a report from real estate data analytics firm ATTOM.

While still below pre-pandemic levels, foreclosure activity has increased on an annual basis for 23 straight months. The uptrend reflects higher jobless rates, ongoing economic challenges and backlogged foreclosures working through the pipeline after the lifting of government interventions to help struggling homeowners during the pandemic, said Rob Barber, chief executive officer of ATTOM.

https://americanmilitarynews.com/2023/04/more-americans-are-losing-their-homes-as-foreclosures-on-us-properties-rise/

OBSERVATION – All kinds of credit related debt is seeing higher default rates. Auto loans are second only to this. A full blown recession will make matters worse. Get out/keep out of unnecessary debt now.

Invasion of Illegals –

New York City Democratic Mayor Eric Adams ripped President Joe Biden’s policies on the southern border Friday, saying that the White House’s position on the issue has turned the Big Apple into a disaster.
Adams has repeatedly asked for assistance from the federal government as New York City deals with thousands of illegal immigrants who have made their way to the city thanks to Biden’s lax border policies. New York City will spend $4.2 billion to house and care for illegal immigrants by the middle of 2024.

OBSERVATION – This is but a fraction of the numbers that are impacting border cities, where tens and even hundreds of thousands have poured into. But NYC was already well down the road into becoming a disaster given their essential condonement of crime and other policies.

**
Republican Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton said his office is reviewing information regarding the Red Cross after a Daily Caller News Foundation report found that the organization had guides for migrants trying to cross the U.S.-Mexico border, he revealed exclusively to the DCNF in a sit-down interview.
Paxton noted that his office has yet to open any formal investigation into the matter, telling the DCNF that his team is “starting to gather facts and determine whether that is something we need to dedicate some of our resources to it.” The DCNF obtained the guides in February that showed routes to the U.S. border and provided a paper on what to do when encountering the dangers along the trip.

The American Red Cross sits on the board of the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s (FEMA) Food and Shelter program that hands millions of dollars in U.S. taxpayer funding to nonprofit groups supporting migrants released into the U.S. interior.

OBSERVATION – The ARC lost my respect following their misuse/misappropriation of the millions of dollars donated after 9/11 to help the victims. They continue their socialistic ways.

For those caught up in a disaster, their ‘policies’ only make matters worse for those who seek help and shelter from them. Time and time again, local communities have brought meals to Red Cross shelters only to have it turned away or dumped in the garbage because it didn’t come from one of their ‘approved’ vendors. In some cases, the shelter threatened to prohibit anyone who left the shelter to accept food with being banned from returning. This often resulted in the shelterees going for days without food.

If your church has coordinated with the ARC to be a shelter, they will not let your pastoral staff in to minister to the people, only their ‘approved’ social workers (so called ministers).

Biden / Harris watch –

biden’s increasing gaffs are making his handlers increasingly uneasy over the prospect of going into primary and especially general election debates.

CW2/Domestic violence –

Push back (FAFO) from the normal community in regards to violent threats by Transtifa elements towards women over their ‘presumed’ right of a man faking their gender as a woman to use women’s toilets is growing. Within in it is the growing call by Transtifa to arm up and become increasingly violent towards opponents. The link below pretty well sums up my thoughts.

https://redstate.com/brandon_morse/2023/04/20/a-warning-to-the-transgender-person-threatening-violence-if-hes-stopped-from-entering-womens-restrooms-n734054

Be warned – don’t poke the bear because as the article states – “You will be fighting for your right to intrude into an area that you don’t belong in, and I will be fighting for something far greater than that.”

**
There were no large or disruptive gatherings forming in and around Chicago’s Millennium Park Saturday. What there has been - a larger police presence and others coming together to deter another teen takeover.

Domestic / International Terror (modified)-

Less than two years after President Biden withdrew U.S. personnel from Afghanistan, the country has become a significant coordination site for the Islamic State as the terrorist group plans attacks across Europe and Asia, and conducts “aspirational plotting” against the United States, according to a classified Pentagon assessment that portrays the threat as a growing security concern. (WaPo).

OBSERVATION – Terror from the likes of ISIS and AQ are also causing problems with Afghanistan and Pakistan’s govts as they are challenging the existing rulers for control. Many areas of these countries are under the real governance by AQ or ISIS. While they are currently securing their operational power bases in these countries, it is only time before they start reaching out again to strike at US interests around the world.

Strategic Activity / Deployments –

Ongoing operations to try to evacuate US civilians from Sudan. See Africa General below for current details.

POLITICAL FRONT –

Lu Jianwang, one of the accused Chinese spies arrested on suspicion of operating a secret police station in New York City, was shown to have attended dinners and fundraisers with high-level Democratic lawmakers, including Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, Rep. Grace Meng and New York City Mayor Eric Adams, according to an investigation.

China –

Indonesia is only drafting plans for an evacuation from Taiwan in the event of war with China. They are not actively evacuating at this time. There are believed to be over 300,000 Indonesians living in Taiwan currently.

North/South Korea –

Watch continues for any satellite launch.

Russia -

WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

This offensive action is focused on several fronts –
1) the Svatove-Kreminna front,
2) Bahkmut region,
3) Donetsk region and
4) Zaporizhizhia Oblast around the town of Vuhledar.

While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.

Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures with highs now reaching the 60’s with light rain over most of the forecast period.

RUMINT –
Former CIA Director David Petraeus says the U.S.-trained Ukrainian counter offensive is scheduled to begin in May, with the goal of severing Russia’s land route to Crimea, while also demonstrating to Putin that the Ukrainians are willing to “out-suffer” the Russians:

NOTE – Petraeus is a dishonored hack IMHO. The May date for the offensive is generally thought to be the opening of the window of opportunity due to the drying out of the soils by that time.
**
More RUMINT that Ukrainians have established a small bridgehead over Dnipro Riber near the town of Dachy, Kherson Oblast, at the eastern bank of the Dnipro River, just upstream of Kherson. This move may have forced Russian forces to withdraw behind the Konka River.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Fighting continued to be fierce at Bakhmut with Russian forces attacking the northeast abd eastern portions of the city.

Ground fighting at Avdiyivka appears to have fallen off.

Russian army launched S-300 missiles at several settlements of Kharkiv region and Kharkiv city last night.

The Svatove-Kreminna, Zaporizhizhia and Crimean fronts were relatively quiet, with mostly scattered and sporatic Russian artillery strikes and minimal ground attacks Possible Ukraine amphibious operation in Kherson region could eventually threaten Russian positions in Zaporizhizhia and defenses of Crimea.

OUTLOOK –
No change in the conflict in the east. Eyes on Ukrainian movements and battlefield shaping operations (and those operations will be kept under tight OPSEC).

RUMINT of a small bridgehead across the Dnipro River, if true, could be a sign of shaping the battlefield. Russia has built its defenses there based on the idea that Ukraine would be unable to cross the Dnipir in any sized force that could threaten approaches to Crimea from that direction, and had shifted forces from there to the fights in Bakhmut and Avdiyivka. This tactic is similar to last summer where Ukrainian threats in Kherson Oblast drew Russian units from eastern positions, enabling Ukraine to blast thru Russian lines in the Kharkiv region and as Russia redeployed forces back there, to then initiate the Kherson counter offensive. We are still early in the head games shaping the battlefield for the Ukranian offensive, but Ukraine is still playing off the Russian fear of losing Crimea combined with resources being diverted to the Avdiyivka and Bakhmut fights to force Russia to shift forces to threats that may not exist.

Israel –

Tens of thousands of Israelis packed Tel Aviv streets on Saturday for the 16th consecutive week to protest government judicial reforms they see as an attack on democracy.

The weekly protests have continued despite Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on March 27 announcing a “pause” to allow for talks on the reforms which were moving through parliament and split the nation.

Saturday’s demonstration comes ahead of another mass protest planned for the coastal city on Sunday to coincide with a Netanyahu speech to the general assembly of the Jewish Federations of North America.
The government’s reform proposals would curtail the authority of the Supreme Court and give politicians greater powers over the selection of judges.

https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20230422-israelis-protest-netanyahu-s-legal-changes-ahead-of-nations-75th-birthday

OBSERVATION – The Jewish high court is in many ways the defacto ruler of the country given their powers and insulation from the other branches of govt. They appoint their own judges and can overrule any law passed by the Knesset. It is also VERY leftist, putting it at conflict with much of Israel. The proposed reforms remove much of their isolation and put it more under the Knesset. Leftists in Israel are protesting this move – as it removes a powerful tool at their disposal. This is also a protest to counter the rising strength and popularity of the right.

Africa general –

Sudan –
Situation in Sudan continues to deteriorate.

The US diplomats & their families evacuated from Sudan yesterday in a “fast & clean” operation due to the “unacceptable risk” in the country right now. The operation was carried out by 100 special forces who spent less than an hour on the ground. The operation evacuated fewer than 100 people, US officials told reporters.

Earlier, the RSF claimed it had “coordinated with the US Forces Mission consisting of six aircraft, for evacuating diplomats and their families on Sunday morning.”

France, Netherlands, Turkey, Italy, Belgium and Japan also say they have begun operations to evacuate their citizens. On Saturday, more than 150 people, mostly citizens of Gulf countries, as well as Egypt, Pakistan and Canada were evacuated by sea to the Saudi Arabian port of Jeddah.

OBSERVATION –There are still tens of thousands non-citizens needing evacuation.

Misc of Note –

I’ve stated that fire danger in the west will be increased substantially as a result of the wet winter. The link below explains that in more detail. For those of you who live in fire prone areas make sure you have your defensible zone around your house prepared early, double check your evacuation/bug out plans, prepack clothing and important papers for immediate escape, check (actually drive) escape routes to ensure they are passable and contact those you expect to stay with to make sure there have been no changes.

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2023/04/23/increased-wildfire-danger-over-the-western-u-s-from-wet-and-cold-conditions/

Economy –

Increased consumer demand and tightening supply due to severe drought in the Southern Plains have continued to increase cattle prices. Prices are breaking previous records set in 2014.

OBSERVATION – Aftershocks from the herd drawdown due to the drought. As I’ve said before, it will be a couple years before herds are re-grown and supply meets/exceeds demand.

Invasion of Illegals –

A group of approximately 3,000 migrants is moving toward Mexico City, demanding authorities expedite their applications for asylum to the United States. According to authorities, some migrants are from China and other Asian countries, and most are from Venezuela. (FO)

OBSERVATION – Again, are these Chinese part of a trojan horse. I really think so given Chinese doctrine.

Biden / Harris watch –

Biden is scheduled to meet with South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol this week.

CW2/Domestic violence –

Relative quiet over the weekend. Chicago youth pretty much stayed at home over and above the now normal gang shootings. A few Antifa trannie supporters were arrested for violence against anti-trannie protestors.

Strategic Activity / Deployments –

Rear Adm. Yvette Davids has been nominated to serve as the next superintendent of the Naval Academy, USNI News has learned. If approved by the Senate, Davids would be the first female superintendent in the service academy’s history.

Davids, who currently serves as the director of the Learning to Action Drive Team, is a 1989 graduate of the Naval Academy, according to her Navy biography. She previously served as the assistant secretary of state for political-military affairs under the State Department, as well as chief of staff for U.S. Southern Command.

OBSERVATION – Her recent posts suggest a strong woke/CRT lean. Pity the academy having to put up with that versus learning the art of war.

POLITICAL FRONT –

60 Minutes came out trying to cover the rear of Ray Epps, only created more questions needing to be answered.

**
Federal officials are delaying the release of a manifesto written by Audrey Hale, who killed six people in a Nashville Christian school, according to local officials, with one calling it “astronomically dangerous.”

“What I was told is, her manifesto was a blueprint on total destruction, and it was so, so detailed at the level of what she had planned,” Metro Nashville Council Member Courtney Johnston told the NY Post, without elaborating. “That document in the wrong person’s hands would be astronomically dangerous,” she added.

Johnson claimed that the “the vast, overwhelming majority of it” would be too dangerous for the public to see. “I personally don’t want to know the depths to which her psychosis reached … When I’m told by an MNPD high-ranking official that it keeps him up at night, I’m going to defer to that person in that agency that I don’t need to read that,” she added.

https://www.theepochtimes.com/nashville-official-says-school-shooters-manifesto-is-astronomically-dangerous_5211983.html?utm_source=partner&utm_campaign=BonginoReport

OBSERVATION – This is a very questionable ‘excuse’ by the FBI. The 16(?) or so page manifesto of the leftist bank shooter was released with no disaster. I suspect that much of the material may well be linked to a wider Transtifa plan of terror. Not so much that he was a lead in, but that he has researched the plans and was further radicalized by them.

**
House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) predicted the passage of a $1.5 trillion debt ceiling increase bill this week. McCarthy did note a handful of Republican holdouts who he needed to pass the bill. Senate Dems and Republicans are working on a separate bill.

Russia -

WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

This offensive action is focused on several fronts –
1) the Svatove-Kreminna front,
2) Bahkmut region,
3) Donetsk region and
4) Zaporizhizhia Oblast around the town of Vuhledar.

While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.

********

RUMINT-
The longstanding friction between Wagner fighters and regular Russian forces came to a head in a deadly shootout in the eastern Luhansk province, Ukraine’s General Staff of the Armed Forces said in a Facebook post Sunday.
A fight escalated into a shootout recently in the settlement of Stanytsia Luhanska and resulted in soldiers on both sides being killed, the posting said.
“With no significant achievements on the battlefield ... (the sides) are increasingly attempting to find someone to blame for the defeats,’’ the General Staff said. “They shift the responsibility for their own tactical miscalculations and losses suffered onto each other.’’

**
Prigozhin says that Wagner will no longer capture Ukrainian prisoners on the battlefield but will instead execute everyone on sight.
NOTE – Wagner is already associated with numerous war atrocities and violations. This declaration of take no prisoners is not his first declaration. He is setting himself up to be a major war criminal.

Russian Personnel Issues –-
Partially confirmed reports that Russia is having difficulties meeting its 400K annual conscript mobilization.

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures with highs now reaching the 60’s with light rain over most of the forecast period.

RUMINT –
Folks, there will be a lot of RUMINT in the coming days regarding the start of the Ukraine offensive. I’ll work to stay on top of this to ID fact vs fiction.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Fighting continued to be fierce at Bakhmut with Russian forces attacking the northeast and eastern portions of the city made marginal gains over the weekend.

Ground fighting at Avdiyivka appears to have fallen off, while to the west-southwest

The Svatove-Kreminna, Zaporizhizhia and Crimean fronts were relatively quiet, with mostly scattered and sporatic Russian artillery strikes and minimal ground attacks

What was RUMINT yesterday is more confirmed today. Russian milbloggers have provided enough geolocated footage and textual reports to confirm that Ukrainian forces have established positions in east (left) bank Kherson Oblast as of April 22 though not at what scale or with what intentions.

The critical mass of current Russian reporting characterizes Russian forces’ presence in the delta areas as fundamentally degraded from where it was six months ago, and reports indicate that Russian forces no longer fully control the delta region.

NOTE to read Outlook below on importance of this activity.

Donetsk Oblast ——
Fire at oil depot in Rovenky, occupied Luhansk region. Occupation authorities blame Ukrainian drones.

Russian Territory –
Explosions were reported in Sevastopol, due to suspected naval drones attack. Russians report one drone was destroyed, the second exploded on its own. Russia claims no damage, but eyewitnesses state otherwise. Pending later satellite imagery to further clarify what happened.

An quadrocopter fell in the vicinity of the Moscow Oil Refinery. Origin of the copter is unknown.

Explosions in Belgorod Russia. Early rumors state that A S300 air defense system is on fire.

Partisan Resistance ——
Also at night, a drone struck an oil depot in occupied Rovenky, Luhansk region near the border with Russia. A tank with diesel for military equipment burned down.

OUTLOOK –
No change in the conflict in the east. Eyes on Ukrainian movements and battlefield shaping operations (and those operations will be kept under tight OPSEC).

The presence of Ukraine forces on the east bank of the Dinpir River was touted as evidence that the Ukrainian offensive had started by some on the interwebs. Perhaps, but not along this axis. In the coming weeks we’ll most likely see Ukrainian reconnaissance and probing of Russian defensive lines in multiple directions.

BLUF – This is not the offensive you are looking for. In the case of this ‘bridgehead’, it will throw Russian planners a curve ball in that they’ve reportedly placed poorer and heavily depleted units there because the threat of a major Ukrainian attack there was low. This assessment remains low, but poor Russian troops could be routed by few, well trained and equipped Ukrainian element. For this to be a valid attack axis, Ukraine would have to throw dozens of pontoon bridges across the river to provide the logistical support a major attack would require.

Israel –

See Syria below re: strikes on Hezbollah targets in Syria.

Syria -

Attacks on Hezbollah positions in Syria on the border with Israel were reported overnight. Syrian sources claim Israeli tanks were active and fire from anti-tank missiles recorded. Possible victims in Hezbollah and Syrian soldiers’ ranks.

Israel also targeted the positions of the Syrian army and Iran-backed militants in the suburbs of Qunaitra in Syria’s southwest, according to Syrian media reports.

Armenia/Azerbaijan –

WAR WATCH

The State Border Service of Azerbaijan announced the installation of a checkpoint at the entrance to the Lachin-Khankendi road on the border with Armenia. This was done unilaterally in order to prevent the transfer of manpower, ammunition, mines, as well as military equipment from Armenia to illegal Armenian armed groups on the territory of Azerbaijan. the command of the Russian peacekeeping contingent and the Russian-Turkish monitoring center have been informed.

Africa general –

Sudan –
Situation in Sudan continues to deteriorate.

Multiple countries are managing to evacuate not only their embassy staffs, but citizens as well. The US has only managed to evacuate embassy staff, no plans on the table for the 19,000 or so US citizens trapped in the civil war.

Director of Operations of the Joint Staff, Lt Gen Douglas Sims, says the RSF did NOT coordinate OR help with the evacuation, despite what they claim.

OBSERVATION –There are still tens of thousands US citizens needing evacuation. On a good note, fighting in the capitol has died down while these evacuations are on going.

Shortened post – small family emergency has come up.

Economy –

Banking aftershocks from last month’s crisis continue. First Republic Bank shed $102 BILLION in deposits during the first quarter of this year as customers withdrew their money from the troubled bank hand-over-fist during last month’s banking crisis. Bank officials report that deposits have stablilized.

**
The U.S. Treasury is expected in the next week to announce a new “x-date” on which the U.S. will run out of money. This date will be based on April 18th tax receipts. Meanwhile, talks between the house republicans and the WH remain non-existent.

**
According to the latest USDA data, just 26% of the winter wheat crop is rated as good to excellent, the lowest April rating since 1989, while 41% was rated as poor to very poor.

OBSERVATION – This will continue to keep most food prices on the high side.

Biden / Harris watch –

Biden officially announced his run for the presidency – vowing to ‘finish the job’.

Biden said, “Around the country, MAGA extremists are lining up to take.. bedrock freedoms away.”

OBSERVATION – We can see that his platform is one of division. Somehow he thinks the MAGA course will set more votes for him.

CW2/Domestic violence –

Much about the transtifa protests in the MT state capitol yesterday. House members voted to censor guy in a dress Democrat state Rep. Zooey Zephyr for his statements on the floor regarding a bill to prohibit the mutilation of children. The protestors were ensconced in the observation gallery overlooking the floor of the house. Upon the vote, they started disruptions. 7 protestors were arrested.

OBSERVATION – The State House gallery is not that big and it didn’t take many transtifa to fill it. Most of these miscreants probably drove over from Missoulafornia and Bozangelas (Missoula and Bozeman – home to the state’s two major universitites) as well as misfits from the Helena area. Montana is a solidly red state and this temper tantrum unlikely to shift that as republicans hold a super majority in both houses as well as a republican governor.

Cyber Warfare –

According to a leaked classified document, “advanced infiltration techniques” will “probably” enable China to breach at least some U.S. cybersecurity defenses “within the next five years.” According to U.S. media reporting, the “zero trust” cybersecurity model being implemented by the U.S. Government and Defense Department information systems will only slow Chinese cyber exploitation due to advances in cyber operations. (FO)

POLITICAL FRONT –

The news sector was shocked at the announcement that Tucker Carleson has been fired from Fox News. Carlson’s Senior Executive Producer Justin Wells has followed Tucker and left Fox News. Fox Corporation Chair Rubert Murdoch made the final decision to part ways with Tucker Carlson and only notifed him 10 minutes before officially announcing it. — Los Angeles Times

According to unnamed sources, Murdoch was said to be concerned over Carlson’s coverage of the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection at the U.S. Capitol, in which the host has promoted the conspiracy theory that it was provoked by government agents. Carlson has called Ray Epps — a Texas man who participated in the storming of the Capitol but did not enter the building — an FBI plant, without presenting any evidence.

If Murdoch was worried about another Dominion disaster – Fox lost nearly $1 billion in stock value upon the announcement. Further impacts due to the growing boycott of Fox by the right will start being evident today.

The left pounced on Carlson’s removal in normal manner. The socialist AOC announcing that ‘deplatforming works’ and the hags on the View cackled as well. However, commentators on the right uniformly fell in to support him and denounce the degeneration of the media and Fox in particular.

Rumors from an unnamed media observer predicts Maria Bartiromo and Jeanine Pirro will be fired from Fox News as Murdoch moves to be less “vulnerable” following the network’s nearly $800 million defamation settlement with Dominion Voting Systems. Per the Radar online report last week, Fox News critic Dylan Byers predicted both Bartiromo and Pirro will be axed from the network.

OBSERVATION – Implosion of Fox is deliberate going into 2024. With former Speaker of the House Paul Ryan on the board – enhancing the significant shift to the left of Fox in general over the past years – it is the only main network that has voiced contrary to the narrative and the Marxists want is completely silenced. Add to that the vampire BlackRock has bought up 15% of the shares. Combined with other investors from the left, it will soon cease to be the leader in cable new.

**
Lemon got kicked out of CNN – the only shocking thing is why this didn’t happen sooner. He’s been a boat anchor to the network for years.

**
And the firings continue. Sources reveal Susan Rice has been fired by President Biden. Rice has been responsible for the Afghan surrender, the Ukraine proxy war, Taiwanese escalation, and most recently the decision to abandon thousands of Americans in Sudan. Rice also botched handling of Benghazi under 0bama.

OBSERVATION - This is almost as surprising as Carlson getting the axe. She has long been thought to be the real ‘president’ of the White House – acting as the puppet master for 0bama.

Africa general –

Sudan –
Situation in Sudan is mildly stabilizing. A ceasefire in Sudan appears to be holding, although there have been reports of new gunfire and shelling. It is the fourth effort to stop the fighting which began on 15 April, with previous truces not observed.
.
Multiple countries are taking advantage of the relative calm to evacuate its citizen. The US is noticeably absent with Blinken stating that US citizens are essentially on their own, with no US plans to evacuate.

Thank you for your notes of concern. The family ‘member’ involved was my dog and I was facing the possibility of having to put him to sleep yesterday. He was diagnosed last month as being diabetic, and quickly developed cataracts now essentially being blind. He ran into something and injured his eye and head (though I couldn’t see the injury – the vet did) and was totally lethargic. Fortunately, the meds have perked him back up. I know his years are substantially shortened (he’ll be 8 this summer), but it’s hard to say goodbye. For now we have his perkiness (and not suffering) around for a little longer, before that fateful day when he starts to suffer from diabetes and we have to say goodbye.

Globalism / Great Reset –

Equities dropped in the U.S., Asia and Europe on Tuesday as a combination of recession, banking, and debt-ceiling risks facing the world’s largest economy came together and dented the appetite for risk-taking.
Equities dropped in the U.S., Asia and Europe on Tuesday as a combination of recession, banking, and debt-ceiling risks facing the world’s largest economy came together and dented the appetite for risk-taking.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/stocks-fall-worldwide-on-u-s-recession-banking-and-debt-ceiling-risks/ar-AA1akyaW?rc=1&ocid=winp1taskbar&cvid=263051f1cb1e44ecbcbd3c85830fb354&ei=34

OBSERVATION – Summer may be hotter than normal. A global economic meltdown is what is desired by the GGR in order to implement their plans.

Economy –

House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) and Rep. Tom Emmer (R-MN) say their $1.5 trillion debt ceiling bill will pass a House vote, Democrats are vowing to vote it down in the Senate, and President Biden says he would veto the bill. McCarthy calls for spending cuts, which Biden and the Democrats oppose, while a handful of Republicans say the cuts aren’t deep enough. (FO)

OBSRVATION – I am getting inclinations more and more that this game of chicken is not a game, but a deliberate action by the democrats to implode our economy in order to facilitate the GGR’s desire for a one singular global economy. Some how they think they will retain power under that scenario, but most of them will be dumped like the useful idiots they are. Note the convergence with the approaching recession. This will get very ugly IMHO, as the democrats once again display willingness to burn the whole thing down in order to rule over the ashes.

**
Consumer confidence dipped again in April as anxiety over a slowing economy and possible recession weighed on American households.
The Conference Board reported Tuesday that its consumer confidence index fell to 101.3 in April from 104 in March. It’s the third time in four months that overall U.S. consumer confidence has declined.
Optimism about current economic conditions ticked up again, although consumers are less positive about the short-term future.
The index remains below 2022’s average level of 104.5.
OBSERVATION – Subjective measure of economic health, but reflects the impacts of our economy on the masses.

**
Global shipping company UPS said Tuesday that the U.S. economy is slowing down as its revenue fell 6 percent in the first quarter compared to a year earlier.
The company’s operating profit, it said, also fell about 22 percent. Its earnings also fell short of Wall Street forecasts for the quarter, according to Reuters.
OBSERVATION - Reflections of the slow down in the economy. Another harbinger of recession on its way.

**
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Tuesday warned of an “economic and financial catastrophe” that would decimate jobs and make loans more expensive for years to come if Congress fails to raise the debt ceiling and the government defaults on its obligations.
Yellen issued the warning in prepared remarks for the 51st annual Sacramento Metro Chamber’s annual Capitol-to-Capitol program, a meeting with California business executives.

The Treasury Secretary touched on the U.S. economic recovery from the lows of the pandemic recession, while acknowledging that inflation remains an ongoing problem.

“We still face near-term challenges. Our administration’s top economic priority is to tackle inflation while protecting the economic gains of the past two years,” she said, noting that inflation remains elevated, although it has come down several percentage points from the summer peak.

https://www.theepochtimes.com/yellen-warns-of-economic-and-financial-catastrophe-but-insists-its-preventable_5219734.html?utm_source=partner&utm_campaign=BonginoReport

OBSERVATION – Remember to give her some considerable speculation. I think she may be greasing the skids for biden and the democrats rejection of any debt ceiling increase.

Biden / Harris watch –

Biden’s campaign theme is “Finish the Job” - omnious given how much damage he has done to the country in the few years he has already been in office.

CW2/Domestic violence –

Transtifia supporters in Montana continue to stomp their feet and throw tantrums.

Strategic Activity / Deployments –

While there were earlier reports that the Ford CSG was to replace the Bush in the Med, USNI does not have it on their deployment maps or discussion. Thus it would appear that the Med currently has no carrier group in the region.

**
US and SK coming to an agreement to port US nuclear missile capable subs in SK – See North/South Korea below

POLITICAL FRONT –

Aftershocks continue in Carlson’s removal from Fox news. In addition to losing nearly a billion in stock value, many are removing subscriptions to Fox News. I haven’t seen the numbers yet, but it appears that it is reaching a boycott of bud light levels.

**
Increasing efforts by the leftist media to de-legitimize the USSC continue. Most recent are hit pieces on Gorsuch. I’m concerned that these attacks are laying the groundwork for an executive branch assault to sideline the court – bringing the number of effective branches to two. Such an attack on a conservative USSC would be in line for a communist take-over by force.

China –

In a phone call this morning, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky approved a Chinese special representative to start talks between the Ukrainians and Russians. Zelensky described the call as “long and meaningful,” while Xi said his goal was to promote peace and international stability by ending the conflict.

OBSERVATION – Xi is making the most out of the leadership vacuum created by the biden regime. Many now view him as the new global leader.

**
Taiwan is encountering jamming of GPS signals all along the northern part of the island. This coincides with the presence of China warships.
It is not known at this time why the jamming is being done, but it is interfering with air traffic into and out of Taiwan.

OBSERVATION – China testing the envelope for future operations. GPS has become critical for precision munitions.

North/South Korea –

A US nuclear missile submarine will soon visit South Korea for the first time since the early 1980s, senior US officials said on Wednesday.
The announcement comes as US President Joe Biden and his South Korean counterpart Yoon Suk Yeol are set to reveal details of enhanced military cooperation in response to North Korea’s missile tests and growing nuclear arsenal.

Japan –

Japan’s outgoing Ambassador to Australia, Shingo Yamagami, warned that “time is running out” for the West to prevent a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. “Time is quite limited because our response has been so slow,” Yamagami said.

Russia -

WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

This offensive action is focused on several fronts –
1) the Svatove-Kreminna front,
2) Bahkmut region,
3) Donetsk region and
4) Zaporizhizhia Oblast around the town of Vuhledar.

While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.

********

NOTE – I’ll be rewriting the above assessment in the coming days to reflect the current situation better.

Economic Impact –
The Kremlin announced on Wednesday that it had seized the assets of Finnish energy consortium Fortum and its former German subsidiary Uniper in what it termed as retaliation for the seizure of Russian assets abroad.

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures with highs now reaching the 60’s with light rain over most of the forecast period.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Fighting continued to be fierce at Bakhmut with Russian forces attacking the northeast and eastern portions of the city continue to make marginal gains.

Ground fighting at Avdiyivka continues to show a shift in effort to Russians moving westward along the M04 highway, bypassing south the town.

The Svatove-Kreminna, Zaporizhizhia and Crimean fronts were relatively quiet, with mostly scattered and sporatic Russian artillery strikes and minimal ground attacks.

OUTLOOK –
No change in the conflict in the east. Eyes on Ukrainian movements and battlefield shaping operations (and those operations will be kept under tight OPSEC).

Belarus -

Rumors of a new Russian offensive from Belarusian territory were part of a coordinated masking operation by the Russian Main Operational Directorate (GOU) of the General Staff, according to Pentagon Leaks

OBSERVATION – Most likely this was a designed ruse. I think it was a pretty transparent one at that though. Multiple months ago I posted reports on this subject, and it became pretty apparent that such a reopening of an offensive front from Belarus was a non-starter. What Russia has done is utilize Belarus training facilities and staff to bring better training to its conscripted forces before shifting them to the eastern Ukraine front. This activity continues. I think Ukraine played along with the ruse as a counter measure.

Israel –

Celebrating its 75th anniversary of nationhood.

Africa general –

Sudan –
Situation in Sudan is mildly stabilizing, allowing foreign govts to extract their citizens.

White House spokesman John Kirby said on Monday it’s not safe to evacuate the remaining Americans out of Sudan as two powerful rival military factions battle it out for control of the east African nation.
The United States evacuated US embassy personnel on Sunday but thousands of Americans still remain and President Joe Biden’s administration ruled out a further evacuation.

‘We’re going to do everything we can to help guide people, get them the information they need to get out safely. But it is not safe right now for another evacuation attempt. That would actually put Americans in more danger, not less,’ Kirby, the spokesman for the National Security Council, said on CBS Mornings.

He said the administration is ‘advising all Americans, those who didn’t take the warning, to get out, to shelter in place. This is not the time to be moving around the city.’

OBSERVATION – France is reporting that it is evacuating US citizens – something that the US just isn’t able to do. Talk about lack of concern or leadership.

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