Shortened post – small family emergency has come up.
Economy –
Banking aftershocks from last month’s crisis continue. First Republic Bank shed $102 BILLION in deposits during the first quarter of this year as customers withdrew their money from the troubled bank hand-over-fist during last month’s banking crisis. Bank officials report that deposits have stablilized.
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The U.S. Treasury is expected in the next week to announce a new “x-date” on which the U.S. will run out of money. This date will be based on April 18th tax receipts. Meanwhile, talks between the house republicans and the WH remain non-existent.
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According to the latest USDA data, just 26% of the winter wheat crop is rated as good to excellent, the lowest April rating since 1989, while 41% was rated as poor to very poor.
OBSERVATION – This will continue to keep most food prices on the high side.
Biden / Harris watch –
Biden officially announced his run for the presidency – vowing to ‘finish the job’.
Biden said, “Around the country, MAGA extremists are lining up to take.. bedrock freedoms away.”
OBSERVATION – We can see that his platform is one of division. Somehow he thinks the MAGA course will set more votes for him.
CW2/Domestic violence –
Much about the transtifa protests in the MT state capitol yesterday. House members voted to censor guy in a dress Democrat state Rep. Zooey Zephyr for his statements on the floor regarding a bill to prohibit the mutilation of children. The protestors were ensconced in the observation gallery overlooking the floor of the house. Upon the vote, they started disruptions. 7 protestors were arrested.
OBSERVATION – The State House gallery is not that big and it didn’t take many transtifa to fill it. Most of these miscreants probably drove over from Missoulafornia and Bozangelas (Missoula and Bozeman – home to the state’s two major universitites) as well as misfits from the Helena area. Montana is a solidly red state and this temper tantrum unlikely to shift that as republicans hold a super majority in both houses as well as a republican governor.
Cyber Warfare –
According to a leaked classified document, “advanced infiltration techniques” will “probably” enable China to breach at least some U.S. cybersecurity defenses “within the next five years.” According to U.S. media reporting, the “zero trust” cybersecurity model being implemented by the U.S. Government and Defense Department information systems will only slow Chinese cyber exploitation due to advances in cyber operations. (FO)
POLITICAL FRONT –
The news sector was shocked at the announcement that Tucker Carleson has been fired from Fox News. Carlson’s Senior Executive Producer Justin Wells has followed Tucker and left Fox News. Fox Corporation Chair Rubert Murdoch made the final decision to part ways with Tucker Carlson and only notifed him 10 minutes before officially announcing it. — Los Angeles Times
According to unnamed sources, Murdoch was said to be concerned over Carlson’s coverage of the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection at the U.S. Capitol, in which the host has promoted the conspiracy theory that it was provoked by government agents. Carlson has called Ray Epps — a Texas man who participated in the storming of the Capitol but did not enter the building — an FBI plant, without presenting any evidence.
If Murdoch was worried about another Dominion disaster – Fox lost nearly $1 billion in stock value upon the announcement. Further impacts due to the growing boycott of Fox by the right will start being evident today.
The left pounced on Carlson’s removal in normal manner. The socialist AOC announcing that ‘deplatforming works’ and the hags on the View cackled as well. However, commentators on the right uniformly fell in to support him and denounce the degeneration of the media and Fox in particular.
Rumors from an unnamed media observer predicts Maria Bartiromo and Jeanine Pirro will be fired from Fox News as Murdoch moves to be less “vulnerable” following the network’s nearly $800 million defamation settlement with Dominion Voting Systems. Per the Radar online report last week, Fox News critic Dylan Byers predicted both Bartiromo and Pirro will be axed from the network.
OBSERVATION – Implosion of Fox is deliberate going into 2024. With former Speaker of the House Paul Ryan on the board – enhancing the significant shift to the left of Fox in general over the past years – it is the only main network that has voiced contrary to the narrative and the Marxists want is completely silenced. Add to that the vampire BlackRock has bought up 15% of the shares. Combined with other investors from the left, it will soon cease to be the leader in cable new.
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Lemon got kicked out of CNN – the only shocking thing is why this didn’t happen sooner. He’s been a boat anchor to the network for years.
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And the firings continue. Sources reveal Susan Rice has been fired by President Biden. Rice has been responsible for the Afghan surrender, the Ukraine proxy war, Taiwanese escalation, and most recently the decision to abandon thousands of Americans in Sudan. Rice also botched handling of Benghazi under 0bama.
OBSERVATION - This is almost as surprising as Carlson getting the axe. She has long been thought to be the real ‘president’ of the White House – acting as the puppet master for 0bama.
Africa general –
Sudan –
Situation in Sudan is mildly stabilizing. A ceasefire in Sudan appears to be holding, although there have been reports of new gunfire and shelling. It is the fourth effort to stop the fighting which began on 15 April, with previous truces not observed.
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Multiple countries are taking advantage of the relative calm to evacuate its citizen. The US is noticeably absent with Blinken stating that US citizens are essentially on their own, with no US plans to evacuate.
Thank you for your notes of concern. The family ‘member’ involved was my dog and I was facing the possibility of having to put him to sleep yesterday. He was diagnosed last month as being diabetic, and quickly developed cataracts now essentially being blind. He ran into something and injured his eye and head (though I couldn’t see the injury – the vet did) and was totally lethargic. Fortunately, the meds have perked him back up. I know his years are substantially shortened (he’ll be 8 this summer), but it’s hard to say goodbye. For now we have his perkiness (and not suffering) around for a little longer, before that fateful day when he starts to suffer from diabetes and we have to say goodbye.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Equities dropped in the U.S., Asia and Europe on Tuesday as a combination of recession, banking, and debt-ceiling risks facing the world’s largest economy came together and dented the appetite for risk-taking.
Equities dropped in the U.S., Asia and Europe on Tuesday as a combination of recession, banking, and debt-ceiling risks facing the world’s largest economy came together and dented the appetite for risk-taking.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/stocks-fall-worldwide-on-u-s-recession-banking-and-debt-ceiling-risks/ar-AA1akyaW?rc=1&ocid=winp1taskbar&cvid=263051f1cb1e44ecbcbd3c85830fb354&ei=34
OBSERVATION – Summer may be hotter than normal. A global economic meltdown is what is desired by the GGR in order to implement their plans.
Economy –
House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) and Rep. Tom Emmer (R-MN) say their $1.5 trillion debt ceiling bill will pass a House vote, Democrats are vowing to vote it down in the Senate, and President Biden says he would veto the bill. McCarthy calls for spending cuts, which Biden and the Democrats oppose, while a handful of Republicans say the cuts aren’t deep enough. (FO)
OBSRVATION – I am getting inclinations more and more that this game of chicken is not a game, but a deliberate action by the democrats to implode our economy in order to facilitate the GGR’s desire for a one singular global economy. Some how they think they will retain power under that scenario, but most of them will be dumped like the useful idiots they are. Note the convergence with the approaching recession. This will get very ugly IMHO, as the democrats once again display willingness to burn the whole thing down in order to rule over the ashes.
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Consumer confidence dipped again in April as anxiety over a slowing economy and possible recession weighed on American households.
The Conference Board reported Tuesday that its consumer confidence index fell to 101.3 in April from 104 in March. It’s the third time in four months that overall U.S. consumer confidence has declined.
Optimism about current economic conditions ticked up again, although consumers are less positive about the short-term future.
The index remains below 2022’s average level of 104.5.
OBSERVATION – Subjective measure of economic health, but reflects the impacts of our economy on the masses.
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Global shipping company UPS said Tuesday that the U.S. economy is slowing down as its revenue fell 6 percent in the first quarter compared to a year earlier.
The company’s operating profit, it said, also fell about 22 percent. Its earnings also fell short of Wall Street forecasts for the quarter, according to Reuters.
OBSERVATION - Reflections of the slow down in the economy. Another harbinger of recession on its way.
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Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Tuesday warned of an “economic and financial catastrophe” that would decimate jobs and make loans more expensive for years to come if Congress fails to raise the debt ceiling and the government defaults on its obligations.
Yellen issued the warning in prepared remarks for the 51st annual Sacramento Metro Chamber’s annual Capitol-to-Capitol program, a meeting with California business executives.
The Treasury Secretary touched on the U.S. economic recovery from the lows of the pandemic recession, while acknowledging that inflation remains an ongoing problem.
“We still face near-term challenges. Our administration’s top economic priority is to tackle inflation while protecting the economic gains of the past two years,” she said, noting that inflation remains elevated, although it has come down several percentage points from the summer peak.
OBSERVATION – Remember to give her some considerable speculation. I think she may be greasing the skids for biden and the democrats rejection of any debt ceiling increase.
Biden / Harris watch –
Biden’s campaign theme is “Finish the Job” - omnious given how much damage he has done to the country in the few years he has already been in office.
CW2/Domestic violence –
Transtifia supporters in Montana continue to stomp their feet and throw tantrums.
Strategic Activity / Deployments –
While there were earlier reports that the Ford CSG was to replace the Bush in the Med, USNI does not have it on their deployment maps or discussion. Thus it would appear that the Med currently has no carrier group in the region.
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US and SK coming to an agreement to port US nuclear missile capable subs in SK – See North/South Korea below
POLITICAL FRONT –
Aftershocks continue in Carlson’s removal from Fox news. In addition to losing nearly a billion in stock value, many are removing subscriptions to Fox News. I haven’t seen the numbers yet, but it appears that it is reaching a boycott of bud light levels.
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Increasing efforts by the leftist media to de-legitimize the USSC continue. Most recent are hit pieces on Gorsuch. I’m concerned that these attacks are laying the groundwork for an executive branch assault to sideline the court – bringing the number of effective branches to two. Such an attack on a conservative USSC would be in line for a communist take-over by force.
China –
In a phone call this morning, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky approved a Chinese special representative to start talks between the Ukrainians and Russians. Zelensky described the call as “long and meaningful,” while Xi said his goal was to promote peace and international stability by ending the conflict.
OBSERVATION – Xi is making the most out of the leadership vacuum created by the biden regime. Many now view him as the new global leader.
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Taiwan is encountering jamming of GPS signals all along the northern part of the island. This coincides with the presence of China warships.
It is not known at this time why the jamming is being done, but it is interfering with air traffic into and out of Taiwan.
OBSERVATION – China testing the envelope for future operations. GPS has become critical for precision munitions.
North/South Korea –
A US nuclear missile submarine will soon visit South Korea for the first time since the early 1980s, senior US officials said on Wednesday.
The announcement comes as US President Joe Biden and his South Korean counterpart Yoon Suk Yeol are set to reveal details of enhanced military cooperation in response to North Korea’s missile tests and growing nuclear arsenal.
Japan –
Japan’s outgoing Ambassador to Australia, Shingo Yamagami, warned that “time is running out” for the West to prevent a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. “Time is quite limited because our response has been so slow,” Yamagami said.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russian forces have initiated an offensive who’s declared goals are to reach and secure the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast borders — an objective that Russian Chief of General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov had also outlined on December 22, 2022. Troop and equipment build up is being noted
This offensive action is focused on several fronts –
1) the Svatove-Kreminna front,
2) Bahkmut region,
3) Donetsk region and
4) Zaporizhizhia Oblast around the town of Vuhledar.
Analysts are noting that the Russian offensive operations are winding down. Some offensive operation will continue to be attempted, however, a lot of assessment indicates they’ve lost the capability to sustain a credible offensive to try to capture the Donbas region having frittered away resources against Bahkmut.
Russia is also capable of launching cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure - primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.
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NOTE – I’ll be rewriting the above assessment in the coming days to reflect the current situation better.
Economic Impact –
The Kremlin announced on Wednesday that it had seized the assets of Finnish energy consortium Fortum and its former German subsidiary Uniper in what it termed as retaliation for the seizure of Russian assets abroad.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures with highs now reaching the 60’s with light rain over most of the forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Fighting continued to be fierce at Bakhmut with Russian forces attacking the northeast and eastern portions of the city continue to make marginal gains.
Ground fighting at Avdiyivka continues to show a shift in effort to Russians moving westward along the M04 highway, bypassing south the town.
The Svatove-Kreminna, Zaporizhizhia and Crimean fronts were relatively quiet, with mostly scattered and sporatic Russian artillery strikes and minimal ground attacks.
OUTLOOK –
No change in the conflict in the east. Eyes on Ukrainian movements and battlefield shaping operations (and those operations will be kept under tight OPSEC).
Belarus -
Rumors of a new Russian offensive from Belarusian territory were part of a coordinated masking operation by the Russian Main Operational Directorate (GOU) of the General Staff, according to Pentagon Leaks
OBSERVATION – Most likely this was a designed ruse. I think it was a pretty transparent one at that though. Multiple months ago I posted reports on this subject, and it became pretty apparent that such a reopening of an offensive front from Belarus was a non-starter. What Russia has done is utilize Belarus training facilities and staff to bring better training to its conscripted forces before shifting them to the eastern Ukraine front. This activity continues. I think Ukraine played along with the ruse as a counter measure.
Israel –
Celebrating its 75th anniversary of nationhood.
Africa general –
Sudan –
Situation in Sudan is mildly stabilizing, allowing foreign govts to extract their citizens.
White House spokesman John Kirby said on Monday it’s not safe to evacuate the remaining Americans out of Sudan as two powerful rival military factions battle it out for control of the east African nation.
The United States evacuated US embassy personnel on Sunday but thousands of Americans still remain and President Joe Biden’s administration ruled out a further evacuation.
‘We’re going to do everything we can to help guide people, get them the information they need to get out safely. But it is not safe right now for another evacuation attempt. That would actually put Americans in more danger, not less,’ Kirby, the spokesman for the National Security Council, said on CBS Mornings.
He said the administration is ‘advising all Americans, those who didn’t take the warning, to get out, to shelter in place. This is not the time to be moving around the city.’
OBSERVATION – France is reporting that it is evacuating US citizens – something that the US just isn’t able to do. Talk about lack of concern or leadership.