Globalism / Great Reset –
WHO Assembly meeting is still scheduled for May 21-30, 2023, at which time it is antipated they will institute the modifications to the pandemic treaty, usurping the will of the people in signatory countries for a globalist medical tyranny. Keep this date on your calendar.
Economy –
More than a month after the failure of the Silicon Valley Bank, Moody’s Investors Service downgraded 11 investors. Six U.S. banks were placed on Moody’s review list in March, per Reuters.
All six banks put for review failed and were downgraded with the new study, including Comerica Inc., First Republic Bank, Intrust Financial Corporation, UMB Financial Corp, Western Alliance Bancorp and Zions Bancorporation.
The other downgraded banks include Associated Banc-Corp., First Hawaiian Inc., Washington Federal Inc. and U.S. Bank, reported WSJ.
OBSERVATION – Banking is still on shaky ground and the question becomes can they weather the implosion of the housing and new car markets (new, high interest rates) combined with a recession.
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U.S. foreclosure filings jumped 22% in the first quarter compared to the same period a year ago, according to a report from real estate data analytics firm ATTOM.
While still below pre-pandemic levels, foreclosure activity has increased on an annual basis for 23 straight months. The uptrend reflects higher jobless rates, ongoing economic challenges and backlogged foreclosures working through the pipeline after the lifting of government interventions to help struggling homeowners during the pandemic, said Rob Barber, chief executive officer of ATTOM.
OBSERVATION – All kinds of credit related debt is seeing higher default rates. Auto loans are second only to this. A full blown recession will make matters worse. Get out/keep out of unnecessary debt now.
Invasion of Illegals –
New York City Democratic Mayor Eric Adams ripped President Joe Biden’s policies on the southern border Friday, saying that the White House’s position on the issue has turned the Big Apple into a disaster.
Adams has repeatedly asked for assistance from the federal government as New York City deals with thousands of illegal immigrants who have made their way to the city thanks to Biden’s lax border policies. New York City will spend $4.2 billion to house and care for illegal immigrants by the middle of 2024.
OBSERVATION – This is but a fraction of the numbers that are impacting border cities, where tens and even hundreds of thousands have poured into. But NYC was already well down the road into becoming a disaster given their essential condonement of crime and other policies.
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Republican Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton said his office is reviewing information regarding the Red Cross after a Daily Caller News Foundation report found that the organization had guides for migrants trying to cross the U.S.-Mexico border, he revealed exclusively to the DCNF in a sit-down interview.
Paxton noted that his office has yet to open any formal investigation into the matter, telling the DCNF that his team is “starting to gather facts and determine whether that is something we need to dedicate some of our resources to it.” The DCNF obtained the guides in February that showed routes to the U.S. border and provided a paper on what to do when encountering the dangers along the trip.
The American Red Cross sits on the board of the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s (FEMA) Food and Shelter program that hands millions of dollars in U.S. taxpayer funding to nonprofit groups supporting migrants released into the U.S. interior.
OBSERVATION – The ARC lost my respect following their misuse/misappropriation of the millions of dollars donated after 9/11 to help the victims. They continue their socialistic ways.
For those caught up in a disaster, their ‘policies’ only make matters worse for those who seek help and shelter from them. Time and time again, local communities have brought meals to Red Cross shelters only to have it turned away or dumped in the garbage because it didn’t come from one of their ‘approved’ vendors. In some cases, the shelter threatened to prohibit anyone who left the shelter to accept food with being banned from returning. This often resulted in the shelterees going for days without food.
If your church has coordinated with the ARC to be a shelter, they will not let your pastoral staff in to minister to the people, only their ‘approved’ social workers (so called ministers).
Biden / Harris watch –
biden’s increasing gaffs are making his handlers increasingly uneasy over the prospect of going into primary and especially general election debates.
CW2/Domestic violence –
Push back (FAFO) from the normal community in regards to violent threats by Transtifa elements towards women over their ‘presumed’ right of a man faking their gender as a woman to use women’s toilets is growing. Within in it is the growing call by Transtifa to arm up and become increasingly violent towards opponents. The link below pretty well sums up my thoughts.
Be warned – don’t poke the bear because as the article states – “You will be fighting for your right to intrude into an area that you don’t belong in, and I will be fighting for something far greater than that.”
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There were no large or disruptive gatherings forming in and around Chicago’s Millennium Park Saturday. What there has been - a larger police presence and others coming together to deter another teen takeover.
Domestic / International Terror (modified)-
Less than two years after President Biden withdrew U.S. personnel from Afghanistan, the country has become a significant coordination site for the Islamic State as the terrorist group plans attacks across Europe and Asia, and conducts “aspirational plotting” against the United States, according to a classified Pentagon assessment that portrays the threat as a growing security concern. (WaPo).
OBSERVATION – Terror from the likes of ISIS and AQ are also causing problems with Afghanistan and Pakistan’s govts as they are challenging the existing rulers for control. Many areas of these countries are under the real governance by AQ or ISIS. While they are currently securing their operational power bases in these countries, it is only time before they start reaching out again to strike at US interests around the world.
Strategic Activity / Deployments –
Ongoing operations to try to evacuate US civilians from Sudan. See Africa General below for current details.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Lu Jianwang, one of the accused Chinese spies arrested on suspicion of operating a secret police station in New York City, was shown to have attended dinners and fundraisers with high-level Democratic lawmakers, including Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, Rep. Grace Meng and New York City Mayor Eric Adams, according to an investigation.
China –
Indonesia is only drafting plans for an evacuation from Taiwan in the event of war with China. They are not actively evacuating at this time. There are believed to be over 300,000 Indonesians living in Taiwan currently.
North/South Korea –
Watch continues for any satellite launch.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russian forces have initiated an offensive who’s declared goals are to reach and secure the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast borders — an objective that Russian Chief of General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov had also outlined on December 22, 2022. Troop and equipment build up is being noted
This offensive action is focused on several fronts –
1) the Svatove-Kreminna front,
2) Bahkmut region,
3) Donetsk region and
4) Zaporizhizhia Oblast around the town of Vuhledar.
Analysts are noting that the Russian offensive operations are winding down. Some offensive operation will continue to be attempted, however, a lot of assessment indicates they’ve lost the capability to sustain a credible offensive to try to capture the Donbas region having frittered away resources against Bahkmut.
Russia is also capable of launching cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure - primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures with highs now reaching the 60’s with light rain over most of the forecast period.
RUMINT –
Former CIA Director David Petraeus says the U.S.-trained Ukrainian counter offensive is scheduled to begin in May, with the goal of severing Russia’s land route to Crimea, while also demonstrating to Putin that the Ukrainians are willing to “out-suffer” the Russians:
NOTE – Petraeus is a dishonored hack IMHO. The May date for the offensive is generally thought to be the opening of the window of opportunity due to the drying out of the soils by that time.
**
More RUMINT that Ukrainians have established a small bridgehead over Dnipro Riber near the town of Dachy, Kherson Oblast, at the eastern bank of the Dnipro River, just upstream of Kherson. This move may have forced Russian forces to withdraw behind the Konka River.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Fighting continued to be fierce at Bakhmut with Russian forces attacking the northeast abd eastern portions of the city.
Ground fighting at Avdiyivka appears to have fallen off.
Russian army launched S-300 missiles at several settlements of Kharkiv region and Kharkiv city last night.
The Svatove-Kreminna, Zaporizhizhia and Crimean fronts were relatively quiet, with mostly scattered and sporatic Russian artillery strikes and minimal ground attacks Possible Ukraine amphibious operation in Kherson region could eventually threaten Russian positions in Zaporizhizhia and defenses of Crimea.
OUTLOOK –
No change in the conflict in the east. Eyes on Ukrainian movements and battlefield shaping operations (and those operations will be kept under tight OPSEC).
RUMINT of a small bridgehead across the Dnipro River, if true, could be a sign of shaping the battlefield. Russia has built its defenses there based on the idea that Ukraine would be unable to cross the Dnipir in any sized force that could threaten approaches to Crimea from that direction, and had shifted forces from there to the fights in Bakhmut and Avdiyivka. This tactic is similar to last summer where Ukrainian threats in Kherson Oblast drew Russian units from eastern positions, enabling Ukraine to blast thru Russian lines in the Kharkiv region and as Russia redeployed forces back there, to then initiate the Kherson counter offensive. We are still early in the head games shaping the battlefield for the Ukranian offensive, but Ukraine is still playing off the Russian fear of losing Crimea combined with resources being diverted to the Avdiyivka and Bakhmut fights to force Russia to shift forces to threats that may not exist.
Israel –
Tens of thousands of Israelis packed Tel Aviv streets on Saturday for the 16th consecutive week to protest government judicial reforms they see as an attack on democracy.
The weekly protests have continued despite Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on March 27 announcing a “pause” to allow for talks on the reforms which were moving through parliament and split the nation.
Saturday’s demonstration comes ahead of another mass protest planned for the coastal city on Sunday to coincide with a Netanyahu speech to the general assembly of the Jewish Federations of North America.
The government’s reform proposals would curtail the authority of the Supreme Court and give politicians greater powers over the selection of judges.
OBSERVATION – The Jewish high court is in many ways the defacto ruler of the country given their powers and insulation from the other branches of govt. They appoint their own judges and can overrule any law passed by the Knesset. It is also VERY leftist, putting it at conflict with much of Israel. The proposed reforms remove much of their isolation and put it more under the Knesset. Leftists in Israel are protesting this move – as it removes a powerful tool at their disposal. This is also a protest to counter the rising strength and popularity of the right.
Africa general –
Sudan –
Situation in Sudan continues to deteriorate.
The US diplomats & their families evacuated from Sudan yesterday in a “fast & clean” operation due to the “unacceptable risk” in the country right now. The operation was carried out by 100 special forces who spent less than an hour on the ground. The operation evacuated fewer than 100 people, US officials told reporters.
Earlier, the RSF claimed it had “coordinated with the US Forces Mission consisting of six aircraft, for evacuating diplomats and their families on Sunday morning.”
France, Netherlands, Turkey, Italy, Belgium and Japan also say they have begun operations to evacuate their citizens. On Saturday, more than 150 people, mostly citizens of Gulf countries, as well as Egypt, Pakistan and Canada were evacuated by sea to the Saudi Arabian port of Jeddah.
OBSERVATION –There are still tens of thousands non-citizens needing evacuation.
Misc of Note –
I’ve stated that fire danger in the west will be increased substantially as a result of the wet winter. The link below explains that in more detail. For those of you who live in fire prone areas make sure you have your defensible zone around your house prepared early, double check your evacuation/bug out plans, prepack clothing and important papers for immediate escape, check (actually drive) escape routes to ensure they are passable and contact those you expect to stay with to make sure there have been no changes.
Plan and develop multiple routes depending on the prevailing winds with grassland fires (includes Florida too).
During the risk of grassland fires, make sure that you have enough automobile fuel, and then some more (+),
as there is nothing that creates panic as having to wait 'in line' for fuel as the fire line approaches with others 'in line'.
Sudan; what us the back story?
Thanks Godzilla!
Economy –
Increased consumer demand and tightening supply due to severe drought in the Southern Plains have continued to increase cattle prices. Prices are breaking previous records set in 2014.
OBSERVATION – Aftershocks from the herd drawdown due to the drought. As I’ve said before, it will be a couple years before herds are re-grown and supply meets/exceeds demand.
Invasion of Illegals –
A group of approximately 3,000 migrants is moving toward Mexico City, demanding authorities expedite their applications for asylum to the United States. According to authorities, some migrants are from China and other Asian countries, and most are from Venezuela. (FO)
OBSERVATION – Again, are these Chinese part of a trojan horse. I really think so given Chinese doctrine.
Biden / Harris watch –
Biden is scheduled to meet with South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol this week.
CW2/Domestic violence –
Relative quiet over the weekend. Chicago youth pretty much stayed at home over and above the now normal gang shootings. A few Antifa trannie supporters were arrested for violence against anti-trannie protestors.
Strategic Activity / Deployments –
Rear Adm. Yvette Davids has been nominated to serve as the next superintendent of the Naval Academy, USNI News has learned. If approved by the Senate, Davids would be the first female superintendent in the service academy’s history.
Davids, who currently serves as the director of the Learning to Action Drive Team, is a 1989 graduate of the Naval Academy, according to her Navy biography. She previously served as the assistant secretary of state for political-military affairs under the State Department, as well as chief of staff for U.S. Southern Command.
OBSERVATION – Her recent posts suggest a strong woke/CRT lean. Pity the academy having to put up with that versus learning the art of war.
POLITICAL FRONT –
60 Minutes came out trying to cover the rear of Ray Epps, only created more questions needing to be answered.
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Federal officials are delaying the release of a manifesto written by Audrey Hale, who killed six people in a Nashville Christian school, according to local officials, with one calling it “astronomically dangerous.”
“What I was told is, her manifesto was a blueprint on total destruction, and it was so, so detailed at the level of what she had planned,” Metro Nashville Council Member Courtney Johnston told the NY Post, without elaborating. “That document in the wrong person’s hands would be astronomically dangerous,” she added.
Johnson claimed that the “the vast, overwhelming majority of it” would be too dangerous for the public to see. “I personally don’t want to know the depths to which her psychosis reached … When I’m told by an MNPD high-ranking official that it keeps him up at night, I’m going to defer to that person in that agency that I don’t need to read that,” she added.
OBSERVATION – This is a very questionable ‘excuse’ by the FBI. The 16(?) or so page manifesto of the leftist bank shooter was released with no disaster. I suspect that much of the material may well be linked to a wider Transtifa plan of terror. Not so much that he was a lead in, but that he has researched the plans and was further radicalized by them.
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House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) predicted the passage of a $1.5 trillion debt ceiling increase bill this week. McCarthy did note a handful of Republican holdouts who he needed to pass the bill. Senate Dems and Republicans are working on a separate bill.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russian forces have initiated an offensive who’s declared goals are to reach and secure the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast borders — an objective that Russian Chief of General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov had also outlined on December 22, 2022. Troop and equipment build up is being noted
This offensive action is focused on several fronts –
1) the Svatove-Kreminna front,
2) Bahkmut region,
3) Donetsk region and
4) Zaporizhizhia Oblast around the town of Vuhledar.
Analysts are noting that the Russian offensive operations are winding down. Some offensive operation will continue to be attempted, however, a lot of assessment indicates they’ve lost the capability to sustain a credible offensive to try to capture the Donbas region having frittered away resources against Bahkmut.
Russia is also capable of launching cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure - primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.
********
RUMINT-
The longstanding friction between Wagner fighters and regular Russian forces came to a head in a deadly shootout in the eastern Luhansk province, Ukraine’s General Staff of the Armed Forces said in a Facebook post Sunday.
A fight escalated into a shootout recently in the settlement of Stanytsia Luhanska and resulted in soldiers on both sides being killed, the posting said.
“With no significant achievements on the battlefield ... (the sides) are increasingly attempting to find someone to blame for the defeats,’’ the General Staff said. “They shift the responsibility for their own tactical miscalculations and losses suffered onto each other.’’
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Prigozhin says that Wagner will no longer capture Ukrainian prisoners on the battlefield but will instead execute everyone on sight.
NOTE – Wagner is already associated with numerous war atrocities and violations. This declaration of take no prisoners is not his first declaration. He is setting himself up to be a major war criminal.
Russian Personnel Issues –-
Partially confirmed reports that Russia is having difficulties meeting its 400K annual conscript mobilization.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures with highs now reaching the 60’s with light rain over most of the forecast period.
RUMINT –
Folks, there will be a lot of RUMINT in the coming days regarding the start of the Ukraine offensive. I’ll work to stay on top of this to ID fact vs fiction.
**
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Fighting continued to be fierce at Bakhmut with Russian forces attacking the northeast and eastern portions of the city made marginal gains over the weekend.
Ground fighting at Avdiyivka appears to have fallen off, while to the west-southwest
The Svatove-Kreminna, Zaporizhizhia and Crimean fronts were relatively quiet, with mostly scattered and sporatic Russian artillery strikes and minimal ground attacks
What was RUMINT yesterday is more confirmed today. Russian milbloggers have provided enough geolocated footage and textual reports to confirm that Ukrainian forces have established positions in east (left) bank Kherson Oblast as of April 22 though not at what scale or with what intentions.
The critical mass of current Russian reporting characterizes Russian forces’ presence in the delta areas as fundamentally degraded from where it was six months ago, and reports indicate that Russian forces no longer fully control the delta region.
NOTE to read Outlook below on importance of this activity.
Donetsk Oblast ——
Fire at oil depot in Rovenky, occupied Luhansk region. Occupation authorities blame Ukrainian drones.
Russian Territory –
Explosions were reported in Sevastopol, due to suspected naval drones attack. Russians report one drone was destroyed, the second exploded on its own. Russia claims no damage, but eyewitnesses state otherwise. Pending later satellite imagery to further clarify what happened.
An quadrocopter fell in the vicinity of the Moscow Oil Refinery. Origin of the copter is unknown.
Explosions in Belgorod Russia. Early rumors state that A S300 air defense system is on fire.
Partisan Resistance ——
Also at night, a drone struck an oil depot in occupied Rovenky, Luhansk region near the border with Russia. A tank with diesel for military equipment burned down.
OUTLOOK –
No change in the conflict in the east. Eyes on Ukrainian movements and battlefield shaping operations (and those operations will be kept under tight OPSEC).
The presence of Ukraine forces on the east bank of the Dinpir River was touted as evidence that the Ukrainian offensive had started by some on the interwebs. Perhaps, but not along this axis. In the coming weeks we’ll most likely see Ukrainian reconnaissance and probing of Russian defensive lines in multiple directions.
BLUF – This is not the offensive you are looking for. In the case of this ‘bridgehead’, it will throw Russian planners a curve ball in that they’ve reportedly placed poorer and heavily depleted units there because the threat of a major Ukrainian attack there was low. This assessment remains low, but poor Russian troops could be routed by few, well trained and equipped Ukrainian element. For this to be a valid attack axis, Ukraine would have to throw dozens of pontoon bridges across the river to provide the logistical support a major attack would require.
Israel –
See Syria below re: strikes on Hezbollah targets in Syria.
Syria -
Attacks on Hezbollah positions in Syria on the border with Israel were reported overnight. Syrian sources claim Israeli tanks were active and fire from anti-tank missiles recorded. Possible victims in Hezbollah and Syrian soldiers’ ranks.
Israel also targeted the positions of the Syrian army and Iran-backed militants in the suburbs of Qunaitra in Syria’s southwest, according to Syrian media reports.
Armenia/Azerbaijan –
WAR WATCH
The State Border Service of Azerbaijan announced the installation of a checkpoint at the entrance to the Lachin-Khankendi road on the border with Armenia. This was done unilaterally in order to prevent the transfer of manpower, ammunition, mines, as well as military equipment from Armenia to illegal Armenian armed groups on the territory of Azerbaijan. the command of the Russian peacekeeping contingent and the Russian-Turkish monitoring center have been informed.
Africa general –
Sudan –
Situation in Sudan continues to deteriorate.
Multiple countries are managing to evacuate not only their embassy staffs, but citizens as well. The US has only managed to evacuate embassy staff, no plans on the table for the 19,000 or so US citizens trapped in the civil war.
Director of Operations of the Joint Staff, Lt Gen Douglas Sims, says the RSF did NOT coordinate OR help with the evacuation, despite what they claim.
OBSERVATION –There are still tens of thousands US citizens needing evacuation. On a good note, fighting in the capitol has died down while these evacuations are on going.