Economy –
Increased consumer demand and tightening supply due to severe drought in the Southern Plains have continued to increase cattle prices. Prices are breaking previous records set in 2014.
OBSERVATION – Aftershocks from the herd drawdown due to the drought. As I’ve said before, it will be a couple years before herds are re-grown and supply meets/exceeds demand.
Invasion of Illegals –
A group of approximately 3,000 migrants is moving toward Mexico City, demanding authorities expedite their applications for asylum to the United States. According to authorities, some migrants are from China and other Asian countries, and most are from Venezuela. (FO)
OBSERVATION – Again, are these Chinese part of a trojan horse. I really think so given Chinese doctrine.
Biden / Harris watch –
Biden is scheduled to meet with South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol this week.
CW2/Domestic violence –
Relative quiet over the weekend. Chicago youth pretty much stayed at home over and above the now normal gang shootings. A few Antifa trannie supporters were arrested for violence against anti-trannie protestors.
Strategic Activity / Deployments –
Rear Adm. Yvette Davids has been nominated to serve as the next superintendent of the Naval Academy, USNI News has learned. If approved by the Senate, Davids would be the first female superintendent in the service academy’s history.
Davids, who currently serves as the director of the Learning to Action Drive Team, is a 1989 graduate of the Naval Academy, according to her Navy biography. She previously served as the assistant secretary of state for political-military affairs under the State Department, as well as chief of staff for U.S. Southern Command.
OBSERVATION – Her recent posts suggest a strong woke/CRT lean. Pity the academy having to put up with that versus learning the art of war.
POLITICAL FRONT –
60 Minutes came out trying to cover the rear of Ray Epps, only created more questions needing to be answered.
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Federal officials are delaying the release of a manifesto written by Audrey Hale, who killed six people in a Nashville Christian school, according to local officials, with one calling it “astronomically dangerous.”
“What I was told is, her manifesto was a blueprint on total destruction, and it was so, so detailed at the level of what she had planned,” Metro Nashville Council Member Courtney Johnston told the NY Post, without elaborating. “That document in the wrong person’s hands would be astronomically dangerous,” she added.
Johnson claimed that the “the vast, overwhelming majority of it” would be too dangerous for the public to see. “I personally don’t want to know the depths to which her psychosis reached … When I’m told by an MNPD high-ranking official that it keeps him up at night, I’m going to defer to that person in that agency that I don’t need to read that,” she added.
OBSERVATION – This is a very questionable ‘excuse’ by the FBI. The 16(?) or so page manifesto of the leftist bank shooter was released with no disaster. I suspect that much of the material may well be linked to a wider Transtifa plan of terror. Not so much that he was a lead in, but that he has researched the plans and was further radicalized by them.
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House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) predicted the passage of a $1.5 trillion debt ceiling increase bill this week. McCarthy did note a handful of Republican holdouts who he needed to pass the bill. Senate Dems and Republicans are working on a separate bill.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russian forces have initiated an offensive who’s declared goals are to reach and secure the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast borders — an objective that Russian Chief of General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov had also outlined on December 22, 2022. Troop and equipment build up is being noted
This offensive action is focused on several fronts –
1) the Svatove-Kreminna front,
2) Bahkmut region,
3) Donetsk region and
4) Zaporizhizhia Oblast around the town of Vuhledar.
Analysts are noting that the Russian offensive operations are winding down. Some offensive operation will continue to be attempted, however, a lot of assessment indicates they’ve lost the capability to sustain a credible offensive to try to capture the Donbas region having frittered away resources against Bahkmut.
Russia is also capable of launching cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure - primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.
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RUMINT-
The longstanding friction between Wagner fighters and regular Russian forces came to a head in a deadly shootout in the eastern Luhansk province, Ukraine’s General Staff of the Armed Forces said in a Facebook post Sunday.
A fight escalated into a shootout recently in the settlement of Stanytsia Luhanska and resulted in soldiers on both sides being killed, the posting said.
“With no significant achievements on the battlefield ... (the sides) are increasingly attempting to find someone to blame for the defeats,’’ the General Staff said. “They shift the responsibility for their own tactical miscalculations and losses suffered onto each other.’’
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Prigozhin says that Wagner will no longer capture Ukrainian prisoners on the battlefield but will instead execute everyone on sight.
NOTE – Wagner is already associated with numerous war atrocities and violations. This declaration of take no prisoners is not his first declaration. He is setting himself up to be a major war criminal.
Russian Personnel Issues –-
Partially confirmed reports that Russia is having difficulties meeting its 400K annual conscript mobilization.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures with highs now reaching the 60’s with light rain over most of the forecast period.
RUMINT –
Folks, there will be a lot of RUMINT in the coming days regarding the start of the Ukraine offensive. I’ll work to stay on top of this to ID fact vs fiction.
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24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Fighting continued to be fierce at Bakhmut with Russian forces attacking the northeast and eastern portions of the city made marginal gains over the weekend.
Ground fighting at Avdiyivka appears to have fallen off, while to the west-southwest
The Svatove-Kreminna, Zaporizhizhia and Crimean fronts were relatively quiet, with mostly scattered and sporatic Russian artillery strikes and minimal ground attacks
What was RUMINT yesterday is more confirmed today. Russian milbloggers have provided enough geolocated footage and textual reports to confirm that Ukrainian forces have established positions in east (left) bank Kherson Oblast as of April 22 though not at what scale or with what intentions.
The critical mass of current Russian reporting characterizes Russian forces’ presence in the delta areas as fundamentally degraded from where it was six months ago, and reports indicate that Russian forces no longer fully control the delta region.
NOTE to read Outlook below on importance of this activity.
Donetsk Oblast ——
Fire at oil depot in Rovenky, occupied Luhansk region. Occupation authorities blame Ukrainian drones.
Russian Territory –
Explosions were reported in Sevastopol, due to suspected naval drones attack. Russians report one drone was destroyed, the second exploded on its own. Russia claims no damage, but eyewitnesses state otherwise. Pending later satellite imagery to further clarify what happened.
An quadrocopter fell in the vicinity of the Moscow Oil Refinery. Origin of the copter is unknown.
Explosions in Belgorod Russia. Early rumors state that A S300 air defense system is on fire.
Partisan Resistance ——
Also at night, a drone struck an oil depot in occupied Rovenky, Luhansk region near the border with Russia. A tank with diesel for military equipment burned down.
OUTLOOK –
No change in the conflict in the east. Eyes on Ukrainian movements and battlefield shaping operations (and those operations will be kept under tight OPSEC).
The presence of Ukraine forces on the east bank of the Dinpir River was touted as evidence that the Ukrainian offensive had started by some on the interwebs. Perhaps, but not along this axis. In the coming weeks we’ll most likely see Ukrainian reconnaissance and probing of Russian defensive lines in multiple directions.
BLUF – This is not the offensive you are looking for. In the case of this ‘bridgehead’, it will throw Russian planners a curve ball in that they’ve reportedly placed poorer and heavily depleted units there because the threat of a major Ukrainian attack there was low. This assessment remains low, but poor Russian troops could be routed by few, well trained and equipped Ukrainian element. For this to be a valid attack axis, Ukraine would have to throw dozens of pontoon bridges across the river to provide the logistical support a major attack would require.
Israel –
See Syria below re: strikes on Hezbollah targets in Syria.
Syria -
Attacks on Hezbollah positions in Syria on the border with Israel were reported overnight. Syrian sources claim Israeli tanks were active and fire from anti-tank missiles recorded. Possible victims in Hezbollah and Syrian soldiers’ ranks.
Israel also targeted the positions of the Syrian army and Iran-backed militants in the suburbs of Qunaitra in Syria’s southwest, according to Syrian media reports.
Armenia/Azerbaijan –
WAR WATCH
The State Border Service of Azerbaijan announced the installation of a checkpoint at the entrance to the Lachin-Khankendi road on the border with Armenia. This was done unilaterally in order to prevent the transfer of manpower, ammunition, mines, as well as military equipment from Armenia to illegal Armenian armed groups on the territory of Azerbaijan. the command of the Russian peacekeeping contingent and the Russian-Turkish monitoring center have been informed.
Africa general –
Sudan –
Situation in Sudan continues to deteriorate.
Multiple countries are managing to evacuate not only their embassy staffs, but citizens as well. The US has only managed to evacuate embassy staff, no plans on the table for the 19,000 or so US citizens trapped in the civil war.
Director of Operations of the Joint Staff, Lt Gen Douglas Sims, says the RSF did NOT coordinate OR help with the evacuation, despite what they claim.
OBSERVATION –There are still tens of thousands US citizens needing evacuation. On a good note, fighting in the capitol has died down while these evacuations are on going.
Shortened post – small family emergency has come up.
Economy –
Banking aftershocks from last month’s crisis continue. First Republic Bank shed $102 BILLION in deposits during the first quarter of this year as customers withdrew their money from the troubled bank hand-over-fist during last month’s banking crisis. Bank officials report that deposits have stablilized.
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The U.S. Treasury is expected in the next week to announce a new “x-date” on which the U.S. will run out of money. This date will be based on April 18th tax receipts. Meanwhile, talks between the house republicans and the WH remain non-existent.
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According to the latest USDA data, just 26% of the winter wheat crop is rated as good to excellent, the lowest April rating since 1989, while 41% was rated as poor to very poor.
OBSERVATION – This will continue to keep most food prices on the high side.
Biden / Harris watch –
Biden officially announced his run for the presidency – vowing to ‘finish the job’.
Biden said, “Around the country, MAGA extremists are lining up to take.. bedrock freedoms away.”
OBSERVATION – We can see that his platform is one of division. Somehow he thinks the MAGA course will set more votes for him.
CW2/Domestic violence –
Much about the transtifa protests in the MT state capitol yesterday. House members voted to censor guy in a dress Democrat state Rep. Zooey Zephyr for his statements on the floor regarding a bill to prohibit the mutilation of children. The protestors were ensconced in the observation gallery overlooking the floor of the house. Upon the vote, they started disruptions. 7 protestors were arrested.
OBSERVATION – The State House gallery is not that big and it didn’t take many transtifa to fill it. Most of these miscreants probably drove over from Missoulafornia and Bozangelas (Missoula and Bozeman – home to the state’s two major universitites) as well as misfits from the Helena area. Montana is a solidly red state and this temper tantrum unlikely to shift that as republicans hold a super majority in both houses as well as a republican governor.
Cyber Warfare –
According to a leaked classified document, “advanced infiltration techniques” will “probably” enable China to breach at least some U.S. cybersecurity defenses “within the next five years.” According to U.S. media reporting, the “zero trust” cybersecurity model being implemented by the U.S. Government and Defense Department information systems will only slow Chinese cyber exploitation due to advances in cyber operations. (FO)
POLITICAL FRONT –
The news sector was shocked at the announcement that Tucker Carleson has been fired from Fox News. Carlson’s Senior Executive Producer Justin Wells has followed Tucker and left Fox News. Fox Corporation Chair Rubert Murdoch made the final decision to part ways with Tucker Carlson and only notifed him 10 minutes before officially announcing it. — Los Angeles Times
According to unnamed sources, Murdoch was said to be concerned over Carlson’s coverage of the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection at the U.S. Capitol, in which the host has promoted the conspiracy theory that it was provoked by government agents. Carlson has called Ray Epps — a Texas man who participated in the storming of the Capitol but did not enter the building — an FBI plant, without presenting any evidence.
If Murdoch was worried about another Dominion disaster – Fox lost nearly $1 billion in stock value upon the announcement. Further impacts due to the growing boycott of Fox by the right will start being evident today.
The left pounced on Carlson’s removal in normal manner. The socialist AOC announcing that ‘deplatforming works’ and the hags on the View cackled as well. However, commentators on the right uniformly fell in to support him and denounce the degeneration of the media and Fox in particular.
Rumors from an unnamed media observer predicts Maria Bartiromo and Jeanine Pirro will be fired from Fox News as Murdoch moves to be less “vulnerable” following the network’s nearly $800 million defamation settlement with Dominion Voting Systems. Per the Radar online report last week, Fox News critic Dylan Byers predicted both Bartiromo and Pirro will be axed from the network.
OBSERVATION – Implosion of Fox is deliberate going into 2024. With former Speaker of the House Paul Ryan on the board – enhancing the significant shift to the left of Fox in general over the past years – it is the only main network that has voiced contrary to the narrative and the Marxists want is completely silenced. Add to that the vampire BlackRock has bought up 15% of the shares. Combined with other investors from the left, it will soon cease to be the leader in cable new.
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Lemon got kicked out of CNN – the only shocking thing is why this didn’t happen sooner. He’s been a boat anchor to the network for years.
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And the firings continue. Sources reveal Susan Rice has been fired by President Biden. Rice has been responsible for the Afghan surrender, the Ukraine proxy war, Taiwanese escalation, and most recently the decision to abandon thousands of Americans in Sudan. Rice also botched handling of Benghazi under 0bama.
OBSERVATION - This is almost as surprising as Carlson getting the axe. She has long been thought to be the real ‘president’ of the White House – acting as the puppet master for 0bama.
Africa general –
Sudan –
Situation in Sudan is mildly stabilizing. A ceasefire in Sudan appears to be holding, although there have been reports of new gunfire and shelling. It is the fourth effort to stop the fighting which began on 15 April, with previous truces not observed.
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Multiple countries are taking advantage of the relative calm to evacuate its citizen. The US is noticeably absent with Blinken stating that US citizens are essentially on their own, with no US plans to evacuate.