Been looking closely at dialing in what I post here rather than be a vacuum of everything. My purpose continues to be those items that pose a threat to the US and in a way a threat to me and my family. This is just part of my OODA loop.
WOOPS, didn’t add the ping list yesterday.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Now rice is a new villan in the GGR’s climate change scheme as producing too much greenhouse gasses and consumption/production needs to be drastically reduced.
Economy –
FED official says inflation won’t return to 2% for at least two years.
OBSERVATION - This has been noted by economists for many months now, now only being admitted to by the Fed. This basically means high prices and more inflation while the fed rate increases continue to hammer sectors that need access to credit.
**
The global rice shortfall forecast for 2022/2023 would come in at 8.7 million tonnes.
That would mark the largest global rice deficit since 2003/2004, when the global rice markets generated a deficit of 18.6 million tonnes.
OBSERVATION – Food shortages are a key component of civil disturbances in the third world.
**
J.B. Hunt Transport Services Inc., the fourth largest trucking company in the US, reported Monday first-quarter profit and revenue that missed expectations, as it explained volumes and revenue per truckload fell amid fears of a “freight recession.”
“To start, we’re in a challenging freight environment where there is deflationary price pressure for an industry that continues to face inflationary cost pressures,” President Shelley Simpson told investors in a post-earnings conference call.
Cargo demand has been softening as consumers spend more money on services than goods. Inflation and soaring credit card rates also hurt consumer demand.
According to Bloomberg, the latest data from American Trucking Association shows the truck tonnage index dropped 5.4% in March versus February, the largest decline since Aug. 2012.
“Falling home construction, decreasing factory output and soft retail sales all hurt contract freight tonnage,” said Bob Costello, chief economist for the ATA.
OBSERVATION - Remember just a year ago there was a shortage of trucks to meet demand. Now the reverse, in part note that this is due to the housing market collapse. This is just one example of the impacts that housing has on the broader economy. This IMHO points to a recession in the offing.
CW2/Domestic violence –
RUMINT that the ferals in Chicago are planning a repeat performance next Saturday.
**
Tensions remain high in Akron OH, with police using pepper spray after BLM & far-left rioters hurled projectiles at officers. The rioters are angry police weren’t indicted for shooting dead a black gunman last year following a car chase.
OBSERVATION – I would expect that things really break loose this weekend.
Domestic / International Terror (modified)-
Moved here from Invasion of Illegals. Increasing concerns of the surge in Chinese men into the country and that they may be shock troops for domestic attacks on infrastructure and civilians.
Strategic Activity / Deployments –
Five members of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, including the chair and the heads of the Army, Navy, Marine Corps, and Air Force, are set to leave their positions this year. The commanders of Northern Command, Space Command, and Cyber Command commanders are also changing. Former National Security Council staffer Peter Feaver said this is a “legacy moment” for the Biden administration. According to current and former Defense Department officials, Air Force General C.Q. Brown is the frontrunner to replace current Joint Chiefs chair Army Gen. Mark Milley.
OBSERVATION – “LEGACY” in a non-favorable way.
**
The Air Force Global Strike Command conducted an operational test launch of an unarmed Minuteman III ICMB last night from Vandenberg SFB. During this scheduled and routine test, the launch command was delivered from a US Navy E-6B Mercury aircraft.
POLITICAL FRONT –
A lot of political infighting over the debt ceiling combined with increasing evidence/proof of criminal activity by the biden syndicate. Lots of screaming and chest beating in various committee hearings.
China –
Beijing is embarking on the “most significant” expansion of its footprint in Antarctica after new satellite images revealed the communist regime has resumed construction on a fifth polar station.
The new station, located on Inexpressible Island near the Ross Sea, could double as a spying operation, a Washington-based think tank suggests.
“While essential for tracking and communicating with China’s growing array of scientific satellites, ground stations can support intelligence collection,” the report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies says.
“Importantly, the station’s position may enable it to collect signals intelligence from U.S.-allied Australia and New Zealand and could collect telemetry data on rockets launching from newly established space facilities in both countries.”
OBSERVATION – You can count on it that these bases are dual purpose.
**
(Reuters) - China and Iran are becoming increasingly brazen in their attempts to silence dissidents on American soil and influence U.S. policy, the FBI warned on Wednesday.
In a news briefing with reporters about transnational repression, FBI counterintelligence officials urged victims to come forward, saying the bureau is tracking a growing trend of foreign authoritarian regimes breaching U.S. laws to intimidate certain communities.
The officials said the governments have at times resorted to using private investigators to conduct surveillance on dissidents and that several criminal cases have been brought by federal prosecutors involving their use.
“A lot of these are new tactics and lines that are being crossed that we have not seen China and Iran do on U.S. soil in previous investigations,” one FBI counterintelligence official said. He added that the FBI hoped to raise awareness of such trends and alert the private investigator sector and state and local law enforcement.
OBSERVATION – Took the US long to take this threat seriously. Note from “Domestic / International Terror (modified)” above, China has an underground network already well established in the US that these Chinese ‘immigrants’ can be fitted into under cover. Perhaps some sort of reduced “Red Dawn” scenario is not too outlandish.
North/South Korea –
(AP) — North Korean leader Kim Jong Un said his country has built its first-ever military spy satellite and that he planned to launch it on an undisclosed date, state media reported Wednesday.
Previous missile and rocket tests have demonstrated that North Korea can send satellites into space, but many experts question whether it has cameras sophisticated enough to use for spying from a satellite because only low-resolution images were released after past test launches.
OBSERVATION – Such a satellite at this stage is more for show and internal propaganda than useful for spying. What is to be seen is the orbit NK launches on. Most likely a polar orbit – common for spy satellites. NK has successfully launched a couple into polar orbit a few years back – sparking concerns of a potential EMP attack (the satellite was at the presumed optimum altitude for such a strike). With the essentially off the shelf technology, camera and other sensors would be relatively good – already seeing similar in commercial imagery satellites that has provided a lot of details on the Ukraine war.
Japan –
Concerns that Japan is not reaching its conscription goals to expand its military to counter Chinese expansionism.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russian forces have initiated an offensive who’s declared goals are to reach and secure the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast borders — an objective that Russian Chief of General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov had also outlined on December 22, 2022. Troop and equipment build up is being noted
This offensive action is focused on several fronts –
1) the Svatove-Kreminna front,
2) Bahkmut region,
3) Donetsk region and
4) Zaporizhizhia Oblast around the town of Vuhledar.
Analysts are noting that the Russian offensive operations are winding down. Some offensive operation will continue to be attempted, however, a lot of assessment indicates they’ve lost the capability to sustain a credible offensive to try to capture the Donbas region having frittered away resources against Bahkmut.
Russia is also capable of launching cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure - primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.
********
Vladimir Putin fired an admiral in charge of his Pacific Fleet in a sign that the Russian despot is furious that military drills that were meant to send a message of strength to the West were a flop.
Putin sacked Admiral Sergei Avakyants, 66, the commander of his Pacific Fleet, as the vast military drills he had apparently overseen were still underway.
The move to axe Avakyants was confirmed by Deputy Prime Minister Yuri Trutnev.
NOTE – This was a high visibility exercise designed to impress China and intimidate the US. Russian readiness apparently has hit all time lows for the Pacific Fleet as it has for the rest of Russian armed forces.
**
Russia is using ‘ghost’ spy ships that are disguised as fishing trawlers off the UK coast to map out wind farms and communication cables for sabotage attacks in case it goes to war with the West, a probe has claimed.
The fleet of Russian ships, disguised as fishing trawlers and research vessels, are sailing through the North Sea to collect data on where wind farms, gas pipelines as well as power and internet cables are located, it has been claimed.
The vessels carry underwater surveillance to map out how the infrastructure is connected with the aim to plan sabotage attacks against the West, a documentary aired by public broadcasters in Denmark, Norway, Sweden and Finland has claimed.
NOTE – Classical Cold War style spying.
RUMINT-
Russians are evacuating civilians along the southern front, there are signs of imminent military action, and Ukraine’s Deputy Defense Minister admits the counteroffensive has started.
NOTE – Reports of mandatory evacuations for the region started circulating a couple weeks ago. See previous TMs
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures with highs now reaching the 60’s with light rain over most of the forecast period.
RUMINT –
Rumors that the Ukraine offensive has started in the Zaporizhizhia Front region – in line towards Crimea. WARNING – a lot of the statements on the start and focus on the offensive when it does kick off will be PSYOPS and propaganda. As noted under Russian RUMINT report that people are fleeing out of the occupied Zaporizhizhia region. IMHO it is still a little early for the offensive to start due to soil conditions, but I’m not on the ground there.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Fighting continued to be fierce at Bakhmut with Russian forces attacking the northeast corner of the city. A Russian push southwest of Bakhmut is now threatening a crossroads of the H-32 supply road near the village of Kostaintynivka .
Ukrainian air defense shot down 10 of 11 Shahed drones overnight around Dnipro.
The Svatove-Kreminna, Zaporizhizhia and Crimean fronts were relatively quiet, with mostly scattered and sporatic Russian artillery strikes and minimal ground attacks
Russian Territory –
The machine-building and metallurgical ‘Kirovsky Plant’ in St. Petersburg is on fire. It is one of the biggest ones in Russia. Another of the many ‘suspicious’ fires hitting major Russian facilities of late.
OUTLOOK –
Russian forces are continuing to push Ukrainian forces back at Bakhmut. Ukraine is struggling to hold resupply routes open and will need to make a strategic decision soon. So too Russia will need to make a strategic decision whether to press the attack and tie up more resources that will be desperately needed to counter any Ukrainian offensive. Any disengagement by either side would suggest that the offensive is close at hand. For Ukraine to free up offensive assets and for Russia to try to reconstitute an operational reserve.
Also noting Russia tossing Iranian made drones at Ukraine again. Absent are the more advanced missiles used in the past. Multiple speculatory explanations include stock running out to the more likely thought that they are being held in reserve to strike critical targets to blunt the Ukrainian offensive. Clearly they have given up on their strategic efforts to shut the Ukraine power grid down.
Another observation – Ukraine has received a fair amount of MIG fighter/bombers or late. Ukraine has a lot of pilots trained on these aircraft and I suspect that when the offensive kicks off Ukraine will try to establish local air superiority in support of its attack. This is something that Russia has failed to do in its year plus war effort. I suspect that US guidance and tactics will be involved here, with pre attack SEAD missions to take out most of the Russian ADA systems leaving the fighters to counter Russian fighters. Could be very interesting to watch.
Africa general –
Sudan -
Looks like countries positioning themselves to and initiating evacuation plans as fighting continues. Of growing concern is that the conflict will spill out into adjacent countries.
A Libyan militia leader and the Egyptian military have sent military support to opposing sides in Sudan - WSJ
“The Libyan militia leader have sent at least one plane to fly military supplies to Sudan’s RSF. Egypt sent warplanes & pilots to back the Sudanese military”
The Sudanese Armed Forces are reporting that they have repelled an major attack by the Ethiopian Army on the “Disputed” Al-Fashaga Region utilizing Tanks, Armored Vehicles, and Infantry; according to Sudanese Sources the Ethiopian Forces suffered severe losses and retreated. Sudanese Military alongside Allies in the Region are reported to be monitoring “Unusual Activity” from the Ethiopian Military along the border with Sudan with additional attacks being expected.
Seems that some sort of U.S. Military Buildup is taking place in Djibouti which is roughly 750 Miles from the Sudanese Capital of Khartoum. So far at least, 9 USAF C-17A transports that have routed to or have since departed Djibouti in the past 24 hours. Most likely preparations for the evacuation of U.S. Diplomats and Nationals from the country as nearby countries around Sudan appear to be on the verge of joining the conflict causing it to possibly “Boil Over”.
Rapid Support Forces reportedly are supported by Iran, who may well be seeking another friendly country in the region.
Misc of Note –
More massive tornados have struck Oklahoma and surrounding regions. Double check your tornado plans and preparations as this looks to be one of the worst tornado seasons in quite a while.
Yes, that makes a difference... :)
WOOPS, didn’t add the ping list yesterday.
I noticed. Brother, I would ask you to remove me from your ping list.
I read it anyways.
JJ
Globalism / Great Reset –
Andrew Bridgen MP gave an informative speech during a Westminster Hall debate on Monday warning of the dangers of handing more powers over to the World Health Organisation by way of the UK signing up to the proposed changes to the International Health Regulations and the Pandemic Treaty.
“The WHO is domiciled in Geneva and so has special status. Its employees are exempt from tax and they and their families all have diplomatic immunity. It is indeed a supranational body, unelected and unaccountable,” Mr. Bridgen said during his speech.
“It is funded like many of our regulators in the UK: the Medicines and Healthcare Products Regulatory Agency is 86% funded by industry sources, and the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation, in its members’ personal declarations, declared more than £1 billion of interests in big pharma, the thing it was set up to regulate. That undermines public confidence. The WHO is no longer anything like majority-funded by its member states—the ones it is seeking to control. It is 86% funded by external sources.
“The second-largest donor after Germany is the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, and I think Gavi is the fifth, so if we add those together, they are the biggest donors to the WHO. We have to ask: why are they doing this? They are also the biggest investors in pharmaceuticals and the experimental mRNA technology that proved so profitable for those who proposed and produced it during the last pandemic.
“The WHO is promoting the influence of private-public partnerships … Anyone can buy influence at the WHO; it will just cost them money.
“I suggest that right hon. and hon. Members read the treaty. It is a massive extension of powers. At the drop of a hat, one man – Mr Tedros – can call for massive powers for the WHO. Not only will he call for them; when he takes the powers, he will decide when the pandemic or emergency is over and when he will give the powers back to this House, where elected representatives are supposed to be representing the interests of our constituents. All that will be suspended.”
https://expose-news.com/2023/04/20/mps-debate-pandemic-treaty/
OBSERVATION – The WHO meeting to finalize the global grab of national health care decisions is fast approaching. So far, the WHO has been navigating the effort off most everyone’s radar screens.
**
U.S. Senators Kyrsten Sinema, an independent of Arizona, and Cynthia Lummis, Republican of Wyoming, have introduced Senate Bill 884, also known as “the Improving Digital Identity Act of 2023.”
The bill’s text states:
“The lack of an easy, affordable, reliable, and secure way for organizations, businesses, and government agencies to identify whether an individual is who they claim to be online creates an attack vector that is widely exploited by adversaries in cyberspace and precludes many high-value transactions from being available online. Incidents of identity theft and identity fraud continue to rise in the United States, where more than 293,000,000 people were impacted by data breaches in 2021.”
The bill calls for the formation of a public-private partnership to bring this digital ID system into being.
“The public and private sectors should collaborate to deliver solutions that promote confidence, privacy, choice, equity, accessibility, and innovation. The private sector drives much of the innovation around digital identity in the United States and has an important role to play in delivering digital identity solutions.”
OBSERVATION – What have I (and others) been saying for years now - the GGR wants a global digital ID system that is also incorporated into a digital currency controlled by your EGR score. We will not see this combined package appear all at once, but incrementally, piece by peace. Digital ID came to the forefront as a wuhan vaccination passport, now they are trying to justify its use for other means. Eventually all these pieces will come together.
**
Our food supply has been one of the major targets of the WEF for a while, with the infamous ‘let them eat bugs’ campaign. The latest threat that has been evolving is the use of mRNA ‘vaccines’ in livestock. We’ve seen just how lethal these ‘vaccines’ have been in humans, so to expect something different in animals would be insanity. Some have taken notice and are acting. At least five states have introduced bills restricting the use of controversial mRNA technology or gene therapies in livestock or demand full disclosure to consumers on product packaging.
The states considering legislation include North Dakota, Tennessee, Arizona, Idaho, and Missouri.
OBSERVATON – One reported reason behind mRNA ‘vaccination’ of livestock is to introduce the wuhan mRNA ‘vaccines’ to humans via food supply. The genocidal globalists just don’t want to stop the spread of their gene manipulation.
Wuhan virus –
Latest twitter drop demonstrates that Fauci lied under oath – again. But rest assured that nothing will happen to him.
Economy –
The National Weather Service forecasts most of Kansas, parts of Oklahoma, Colorado, and Texas will continue to suffer severe drought. The drought in this area is now comparable to the most severe droughts recorded in 2011, the 1950s, and the 1930s.
OBSERVATION – Key wheat production areas, not good for long term food prices as so much relies on wheat flour. This will also impact cattle herds due to lack of feed. On the flip side, analysts are forecasting a climate shift to El Niño by the summer. El Niño conditions have driven some of the best crop yield years on record.
**
The latest Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) report, (a leading economic indicator) published on April 20, fell 1.2 percent in March, for the twelfth month in a row, higher than The Wall Street Journal’s estimate of a 0.7 percent drop.
The downturn marked its largest single-month decline since April 2020, when the pandemic and the resulting lockdowns slammed the American economy.
“The U.S. LEI fell to its lowest level since November of 2020, consistent with worsening economic conditions ahead,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, senior manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board.
The LEI tumbled 4.5 percent over the six-month period between September 2022 and March 2023, a more rapid drop over the 3.5 percent from the previous six-month period.
“The Conference Board forecasts that economic weakness will intensify and spread more widely throughout the U.S. economy over the coming months, leading to a recession starting in mid-2023,” she warned.
OBSERVATION - Watching this train wreck develop for a year now, more and more indicators are converging in this summer. To make matters worse, this will also coincide with debt ceiling deadlines. GGR / WEF may well be rubbing their hands together in anticipation of the economic disaster that could ensue.
**
The manufacturing slump in the region covered by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia continued in April, a report from the Philly Fed said Thursday.
The Philly Fed’s index of business activity fell to -31.3 in April from -23.2 in March. Readings below zero indicate contracting activity.
OBSERVATION – Another indicator of the coming storm.
Invasion of Illegals –
“Title 42,” which allowed for the quick expulsion of all illegal immigrants crossing the southern border, is set to end May 11, the title was a potent deterrent when former President Donald Trump applied it to almost 90% of all illegal crossing immigrants and far less so under the President, who expelled only 35%.
Reportedly in border cities like Juarez, thousands of immigrants are living in abandoned buildings, sleeping on the streets, and many hundreds more a day show up on freight trains. A human tidal wave is building all over Mexico and farther south.
OBSERVATION – You think the crisis at the border has been bad so far, the last remaining working tool to keep things in some degree of check is evaporating and setting us up for potentially staggering numbers of illegals - such an influx will certainly increase crime and stress on the economy – we only need so many house cleaners.
Biden / Harris watch –
BIDEN: “I’ve flown over more land that has been burned to the ground because of forest fires than the entire size of the state of Maryland, which is about the size of Delaware.”
CW2/Domestic violence –
RUMINT that the ferals in Chicago are planning a repeat performance next Saturday.
**
U.S. Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas said Friday that the agency would create a task force to figure out how to use artificial intelligence to do everything from protecting critical infrastructure to screening cargo to ferret out products made with slave labor.
OBSERVATION – AI would also scour social media/interwebs more efficiently than humans to build a database of ‘domestic terrorists’ that could be potentially used to target US citizens in the event things start going sideways.
**
Target announced a wave of store closures across several states. According to the Daily Mail, four locations in Maryland, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Virginia would close on May 13. The four Target stores “were rolled out about 10 years ago as a way to reach customers in more urban areas,” the Mail added.
Target lost roughly $400 million last November “due to organized gangs of shoplifters who had been stealing merchandise from its stores.” The company’s Chief Financial Officer Michael Fiddelke predicted that the company will incur losses of up to $600 million by the end of 2023.
OBSERVATION – the big chain stores are accelerating their departure from blue city hell zones. Soon the looters / ferals will move outward to ‘richer’ surrounding suburban areas for their free stuff. Saw this happen in kalifornia the past couple years. This will increase the potential for conflict between the locals and these looters who will also target the homes of those in these suburbs.
**
In a “call to arms” posted onto TikTok, a user who goes by the name “Tara” and who identifies as a “poly trans lesbian” threatened Christian conservatives and urged fellow travelers to “arm up” to fight them in a recent rant on the Chinese-owned platform.
“If you back a wild animal into a corner, they will become a dangerous animal,” he said. “So if you want to die on that hill of yours of righteousness and moral majority, then you go right ahead.”
Tara, who doesn’t come close to passing as female, threatened violence against women who object to biological males invading their public restrooms.
“I dare you to try and stop me from going into a women’s bathroom,” he warned. “It will be the last mistake you ever make.”
OBSERVATION – Just another example of the call to violence by transtifa misfits out there. Definitely a serious violence streak being called for.
Domestic / International Terror (modified)-
Ramadan is ending today, but still be alert for some spill over.
Strategic Activity / Deployments –
USAF activity to Africa continues at elevated levels.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Sewage, sewage and more sewage. Proof has come out that the biden campaign and more specifically the current Sec State ‘coordinated’ with former intelligence officials to call hunter’s lap top a Russian disinfomation plan. That lie has blown up in their faces, but don’t expect anyone to go to jail over it. Why? Because the DoJ will refuse to make any moves to do so.
In related, apparently the AG himself is the one directing the DoJ/FBI to cover up official investigations into hunter. This places the AG under perjury charges for his congressional testimony where he categorically denied involvement is such. Once again, Garland won’t see jail time nor removal from office as such.
More corruption from the J6 kangaroo committee, with more reports that they illegally obtained emails from many individuals, one of which being Fox News host Mark Levin.
China –
China now offering to negotiate a peace agreement between Israel and the Palestinians.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russian forces have initiated an offensive who’s declared goals are to reach and secure the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast borders — an objective that Russian Chief of General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov had also outlined on December 22, 2022. Troop and equipment build up is being noted
This offensive action is focused on several fronts –
1) the Svatove-Kreminna front,
2) Bahkmut region,
3) Donetsk region and
4) Zaporizhizhia Oblast around the town of Vuhledar.
Analysts are noting that the Russian offensive operations are winding down. Some offensive operation will continue to be attempted, however, a lot of assessment indicates they’ve lost the capability to sustain a credible offensive to try to capture the Donbas region having frittered away resources against Bahkmut.
Russia is also capable of launching cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure - primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.
********
Economic Impact –
Bloomberg. The USA and its allies are considering the possibility of introducing an almost complete ban on exports to Russia, writes Bloomberg. The leaders of the big seven countries are discussing this idea ahead of the G7 summit in Japan in May.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures with highs now reaching the 60’s with light rain over most of the forecast period.
RUMINT –
Washington Post: Ukraine drew up plans to open a new front in Syria and attack Russian forces with help from SDF, which asked for air defense, training and anonymity, according to leaked docs. The plan was shelved in December.
NOTE- Highly doubtful IMHO, a huge waste to resources that Ukraine doesn’t have.
**
Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar confirmed that both defensive and offensive operations are currently underway in the eastern part of the country.
NOTE – One must take these statements at arms length as part of the propaganda leading up to the anticipated offensive.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Fighting continued to be fierce at Bakhmut with Russian forces attacking the northeast corner of the city. Recent Russian artillery fire suggests a renewed push to the northwest along the M-03 highway.
Ukrainian air defense shot down 8 of 12 Shahed drones overnight, reportedly there were hits in Vinnytsia and Poltava regions.
The Svatove-Kreminna, Zaporizhizhia and Crimean fronts were relatively quiet, with mostly scattered and sporatic Russian artillery strikes and minimal ground attacks
Analysts are noting that Ukraine has significantly increased targeting of Russian EW systems in the east.
Russian Territory –
Following videos of a huge explosion and creation of a crater in Belgorod appeared, Russian Ministry of Defense confirms that it was a failed Russian bomb - “On April 20, during the flight of the Su-34 aircraft over the city of Belgorod, an abnormal descent of aviation ammunition occurred”
NOTE – LOL, nothing to see here.
OUTLOOK –
With the fight in the east continuing hammer and tongs, more evidence is coming out that Ukraine is in the early process of shaping the battlefield for its offensive campaign. As noted above, Russian EW systems appear to be targets of choice now. Their jammers can interfere with C3 as well as drone flight links. Trying to look closely at other deeper target sets Ukraine is focusing on such as logistics, command posts and troop concentrations to give indicators where the blow will strike the hardest. Ukraine is being tight lipped about those targets so far.
For reference, we saw a similar process of shaping the battlefield in the weeks prior to the Kharkiv and Kherson counteroffensives.
Israel –
“Those who partner with Iran, partner with misery. Look at Lebanon. Look at Yemen. Look at Syria. Look at Iraq,” Netanyahu cautioned amid the warming ties between Iran and Saudi Arabia, describing the above countries as near failed states.
**
Next week Israel celebrates Yom HaZikaron (Memorial Day) beginning Monday, followed by Yom Ha’atzmaut (Independence Day) on Tuesday. Once those days of remembrance and celebration are complete, analysts/observers note tha the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) will be free to carry out whatever is necessary to protect the nation.
May could well be a very HOT month for the middle east.
Iran –
Iran claims its navy forced a US submarine to the surface as it entered the Gulf, Iranian navy commander Shahram Irani told state television on Thursday, in the latest report of an apparent confrontation between Iranian and US forces in the Gulf.
OBSERVATION – Color this questionable. Iran has a history of propagandistic declarations like this. However, it also historically gone out of its way to play chicken with US naval vessels in the straits of Hormoz region.
**
The foreign minister of Iran and Jordan spoke on Thursday and agreed to meet “as soon as possible” in order to discuss relations between the two countries. This development comes after Tehran renewed its ties with Riyadh a little over a month ago.
OBSERVATION – That giant sucking sound is the collapse of US foreign policy and influence in the middle east. Everyone seems to be wanting to get buddy buddy with Iran now.
Turkey -
74-year-old Kemal Kilicdaroglu - pronounced Kilitch-daro-lu - has the biggest chance so far of unseating Turkey’s most powerful man, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, since he took power 20 years ago. A soft-spoken former civil servant, he is the very antithesis of Turkey’s grandstanding, powerful president.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65309688
Erdogan disdains the EU and is a rogue within NATO. Kilicdaroglu intends to revive Turkey’s bid to join the EU. Kilicdaroglu’s political coalition, The National Alliance, also wants to end Erdogan’s opposition to Sweden joining NATO. Erdogan’s poor response to the February 2023 earthquakes has become a major issue. So has Turkey’s rampant inflation.
OBSERVATION – Running on a pro-economy platform, his party is currently leading Erdogan but so far neither appears to have the 50+% needed to avoid a run-off. His policies are aligned to remove factors that have kept Turkey from being accepted into the EU’s economic sphere, potentially relieving many of the ongoing economic woes of the country.
Central / South America General-
Chilean President Gabriel Boric announced a plan to nationalize Chile’s lithium industry, the second largest in the world. The move could force some U.S. mining companies, such as North Carolina-based Albemarle Corp, to leave the country.
Africa general –
Sudan –
Another Afghanistan fiasco is underway in the Sudan. An unknown number of American citizens (estimated 19,000 American citizens ) remain trapped in Sudan, and it may already be too late to get them out. The civil war in Sudan between two warlords reached the capital of Khartoum almost a week ago, and yet no one apparently had thought to extract US diplomatic personnel and private citizens from the country.
The embassy sent out an alert that it’s already too late for any normal exit: The airport, located in central Khartoum, is closed but would be inoperable even if it reopened due to damage from bombardment and fighting. The roughly 70 U.S. staff at the embassy have no options to leave Sudan on their own without immense risk to their safety. For the most part, U.S. diplomats in Sudan are unaccompanied, meaning they do not have their family with them at what’s considered a challenging post, a State Department official said.
US forces are apparently staging in Djibouti for some kind of extraction operation with 15 USAF C-17A transports that have flown to there.
Evidence has emerged of Russia’s Wagner arming militia leader battling Sudan’s army. This would parallel other reports that Iran is doing the same.
OBSERVATION – the situation there is rapidly growing into a potential regional conflict.