Globalism / Great Reset –
Andrew Bridgen MP gave an informative speech during a Westminster Hall debate on Monday warning of the dangers of handing more powers over to the World Health Organisation by way of the UK signing up to the proposed changes to the International Health Regulations and the Pandemic Treaty.
“The WHO is domiciled in Geneva and so has special status. Its employees are exempt from tax and they and their families all have diplomatic immunity. It is indeed a supranational body, unelected and unaccountable,” Mr. Bridgen said during his speech.
“It is funded like many of our regulators in the UK: the Medicines and Healthcare Products Regulatory Agency is 86% funded by industry sources, and the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation, in its members’ personal declarations, declared more than £1 billion of interests in big pharma, the thing it was set up to regulate. That undermines public confidence. The WHO is no longer anything like majority-funded by its member states—the ones it is seeking to control. It is 86% funded by external sources.
“The second-largest donor after Germany is the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, and I think Gavi is the fifth, so if we add those together, they are the biggest donors to the WHO. We have to ask: why are they doing this? They are also the biggest investors in pharmaceuticals and the experimental mRNA technology that proved so profitable for those who proposed and produced it during the last pandemic.
“The WHO is promoting the influence of private-public partnerships … Anyone can buy influence at the WHO; it will just cost them money.
“I suggest that right hon. and hon. Members read the treaty. It is a massive extension of powers. At the drop of a hat, one man – Mr Tedros – can call for massive powers for the WHO. Not only will he call for them; when he takes the powers, he will decide when the pandemic or emergency is over and when he will give the powers back to this House, where elected representatives are supposed to be representing the interests of our constituents. All that will be suspended.”
https://expose-news.com/2023/04/20/mps-debate-pandemic-treaty/
OBSERVATION – The WHO meeting to finalize the global grab of national health care decisions is fast approaching. So far, the WHO has been navigating the effort off most everyone’s radar screens.
**
U.S. Senators Kyrsten Sinema, an independent of Arizona, and Cynthia Lummis, Republican of Wyoming, have introduced Senate Bill 884, also known as “the Improving Digital Identity Act of 2023.”
The bill’s text states:
“The lack of an easy, affordable, reliable, and secure way for organizations, businesses, and government agencies to identify whether an individual is who they claim to be online creates an attack vector that is widely exploited by adversaries in cyberspace and precludes many high-value transactions from being available online. Incidents of identity theft and identity fraud continue to rise in the United States, where more than 293,000,000 people were impacted by data breaches in 2021.”
The bill calls for the formation of a public-private partnership to bring this digital ID system into being.
“The public and private sectors should collaborate to deliver solutions that promote confidence, privacy, choice, equity, accessibility, and innovation. The private sector drives much of the innovation around digital identity in the United States and has an important role to play in delivering digital identity solutions.”
OBSERVATION – What have I (and others) been saying for years now - the GGR wants a global digital ID system that is also incorporated into a digital currency controlled by your EGR score. We will not see this combined package appear all at once, but incrementally, piece by peace. Digital ID came to the forefront as a wuhan vaccination passport, now they are trying to justify its use for other means. Eventually all these pieces will come together.
**
Our food supply has been one of the major targets of the WEF for a while, with the infamous ‘let them eat bugs’ campaign. The latest threat that has been evolving is the use of mRNA ‘vaccines’ in livestock. We’ve seen just how lethal these ‘vaccines’ have been in humans, so to expect something different in animals would be insanity. Some have taken notice and are acting. At least five states have introduced bills restricting the use of controversial mRNA technology or gene therapies in livestock or demand full disclosure to consumers on product packaging.
The states considering legislation include North Dakota, Tennessee, Arizona, Idaho, and Missouri.
OBSERVATON – One reported reason behind mRNA ‘vaccination’ of livestock is to introduce the wuhan mRNA ‘vaccines’ to humans via food supply. The genocidal globalists just don’t want to stop the spread of their gene manipulation.
Wuhan virus –
Latest twitter drop demonstrates that Fauci lied under oath – again. But rest assured that nothing will happen to him.
Economy –
The National Weather Service forecasts most of Kansas, parts of Oklahoma, Colorado, and Texas will continue to suffer severe drought. The drought in this area is now comparable to the most severe droughts recorded in 2011, the 1950s, and the 1930s.
OBSERVATION – Key wheat production areas, not good for long term food prices as so much relies on wheat flour. This will also impact cattle herds due to lack of feed. On the flip side, analysts are forecasting a climate shift to El Niño by the summer. El Niño conditions have driven some of the best crop yield years on record.
**
The latest Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) report, (a leading economic indicator) published on April 20, fell 1.2 percent in March, for the twelfth month in a row, higher than The Wall Street Journal’s estimate of a 0.7 percent drop.
The downturn marked its largest single-month decline since April 2020, when the pandemic and the resulting lockdowns slammed the American economy.
“The U.S. LEI fell to its lowest level since November of 2020, consistent with worsening economic conditions ahead,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, senior manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board.
The LEI tumbled 4.5 percent over the six-month period between September 2022 and March 2023, a more rapid drop over the 3.5 percent from the previous six-month period.
“The Conference Board forecasts that economic weakness will intensify and spread more widely throughout the U.S. economy over the coming months, leading to a recession starting in mid-2023,” she warned.
OBSERVATION - Watching this train wreck develop for a year now, more and more indicators are converging in this summer. To make matters worse, this will also coincide with debt ceiling deadlines. GGR / WEF may well be rubbing their hands together in anticipation of the economic disaster that could ensue.
**
The manufacturing slump in the region covered by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia continued in April, a report from the Philly Fed said Thursday.
The Philly Fed’s index of business activity fell to -31.3 in April from -23.2 in March. Readings below zero indicate contracting activity.
OBSERVATION – Another indicator of the coming storm.
Invasion of Illegals –
“Title 42,” which allowed for the quick expulsion of all illegal immigrants crossing the southern border, is set to end May 11, the title was a potent deterrent when former President Donald Trump applied it to almost 90% of all illegal crossing immigrants and far less so under the President, who expelled only 35%.
Reportedly in border cities like Juarez, thousands of immigrants are living in abandoned buildings, sleeping on the streets, and many hundreds more a day show up on freight trains. A human tidal wave is building all over Mexico and farther south.
OBSERVATION – You think the crisis at the border has been bad so far, the last remaining working tool to keep things in some degree of check is evaporating and setting us up for potentially staggering numbers of illegals - such an influx will certainly increase crime and stress on the economy – we only need so many house cleaners.
Biden / Harris watch –
BIDEN: “I’ve flown over more land that has been burned to the ground because of forest fires than the entire size of the state of Maryland, which is about the size of Delaware.”
CW2/Domestic violence –
RUMINT that the ferals in Chicago are planning a repeat performance next Saturday.
**
U.S. Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas said Friday that the agency would create a task force to figure out how to use artificial intelligence to do everything from protecting critical infrastructure to screening cargo to ferret out products made with slave labor.
OBSERVATION – AI would also scour social media/interwebs more efficiently than humans to build a database of ‘domestic terrorists’ that could be potentially used to target US citizens in the event things start going sideways.
**
Target announced a wave of store closures across several states. According to the Daily Mail, four locations in Maryland, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Virginia would close on May 13. The four Target stores “were rolled out about 10 years ago as a way to reach customers in more urban areas,” the Mail added.
Target lost roughly $400 million last November “due to organized gangs of shoplifters who had been stealing merchandise from its stores.” The company’s Chief Financial Officer Michael Fiddelke predicted that the company will incur losses of up to $600 million by the end of 2023.
OBSERVATION – the big chain stores are accelerating their departure from blue city hell zones. Soon the looters / ferals will move outward to ‘richer’ surrounding suburban areas for their free stuff. Saw this happen in kalifornia the past couple years. This will increase the potential for conflict between the locals and these looters who will also target the homes of those in these suburbs.
**
In a “call to arms” posted onto TikTok, a user who goes by the name “Tara” and who identifies as a “poly trans lesbian” threatened Christian conservatives and urged fellow travelers to “arm up” to fight them in a recent rant on the Chinese-owned platform.
“If you back a wild animal into a corner, they will become a dangerous animal,” he said. “So if you want to die on that hill of yours of righteousness and moral majority, then you go right ahead.”
Tara, who doesn’t come close to passing as female, threatened violence against women who object to biological males invading their public restrooms.
“I dare you to try and stop me from going into a women’s bathroom,” he warned. “It will be the last mistake you ever make.”
OBSERVATION – Just another example of the call to violence by transtifa misfits out there. Definitely a serious violence streak being called for.
Domestic / International Terror (modified)-
Ramadan is ending today, but still be alert for some spill over.
Strategic Activity / Deployments –
USAF activity to Africa continues at elevated levels.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Sewage, sewage and more sewage. Proof has come out that the biden campaign and more specifically the current Sec State ‘coordinated’ with former intelligence officials to call hunter’s lap top a Russian disinfomation plan. That lie has blown up in their faces, but don’t expect anyone to go to jail over it. Why? Because the DoJ will refuse to make any moves to do so.
In related, apparently the AG himself is the one directing the DoJ/FBI to cover up official investigations into hunter. This places the AG under perjury charges for his congressional testimony where he categorically denied involvement is such. Once again, Garland won’t see jail time nor removal from office as such.
More corruption from the J6 kangaroo committee, with more reports that they illegally obtained emails from many individuals, one of which being Fox News host Mark Levin.
China –
China now offering to negotiate a peace agreement between Israel and the Palestinians.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russian forces have initiated an offensive who’s declared goals are to reach and secure the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast borders — an objective that Russian Chief of General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov had also outlined on December 22, 2022. Troop and equipment build up is being noted
This offensive action is focused on several fronts –
1) the Svatove-Kreminna front,
2) Bahkmut region,
3) Donetsk region and
4) Zaporizhizhia Oblast around the town of Vuhledar.
Analysts are noting that the Russian offensive operations are winding down. Some offensive operation will continue to be attempted, however, a lot of assessment indicates they’ve lost the capability to sustain a credible offensive to try to capture the Donbas region having frittered away resources against Bahkmut.
Russia is also capable of launching cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure - primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.
********
Economic Impact –
Bloomberg. The USA and its allies are considering the possibility of introducing an almost complete ban on exports to Russia, writes Bloomberg. The leaders of the big seven countries are discussing this idea ahead of the G7 summit in Japan in May.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures with highs now reaching the 60’s with light rain over most of the forecast period.
RUMINT –
Washington Post: Ukraine drew up plans to open a new front in Syria and attack Russian forces with help from SDF, which asked for air defense, training and anonymity, according to leaked docs. The plan was shelved in December.
NOTE- Highly doubtful IMHO, a huge waste to resources that Ukraine doesn’t have.
**
Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar confirmed that both defensive and offensive operations are currently underway in the eastern part of the country.
NOTE – One must take these statements at arms length as part of the propaganda leading up to the anticipated offensive.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Fighting continued to be fierce at Bakhmut with Russian forces attacking the northeast corner of the city. Recent Russian artillery fire suggests a renewed push to the northwest along the M-03 highway.
Ukrainian air defense shot down 8 of 12 Shahed drones overnight, reportedly there were hits in Vinnytsia and Poltava regions.
The Svatove-Kreminna, Zaporizhizhia and Crimean fronts were relatively quiet, with mostly scattered and sporatic Russian artillery strikes and minimal ground attacks
Analysts are noting that Ukraine has significantly increased targeting of Russian EW systems in the east.
Russian Territory –
Following videos of a huge explosion and creation of a crater in Belgorod appeared, Russian Ministry of Defense confirms that it was a failed Russian bomb - “On April 20, during the flight of the Su-34 aircraft over the city of Belgorod, an abnormal descent of aviation ammunition occurred”
NOTE – LOL, nothing to see here.
OUTLOOK –
With the fight in the east continuing hammer and tongs, more evidence is coming out that Ukraine is in the early process of shaping the battlefield for its offensive campaign. As noted above, Russian EW systems appear to be targets of choice now. Their jammers can interfere with C3 as well as drone flight links. Trying to look closely at other deeper target sets Ukraine is focusing on such as logistics, command posts and troop concentrations to give indicators where the blow will strike the hardest. Ukraine is being tight lipped about those targets so far.
For reference, we saw a similar process of shaping the battlefield in the weeks prior to the Kharkiv and Kherson counteroffensives.
Israel –
“Those who partner with Iran, partner with misery. Look at Lebanon. Look at Yemen. Look at Syria. Look at Iraq,” Netanyahu cautioned amid the warming ties between Iran and Saudi Arabia, describing the above countries as near failed states.
**
Next week Israel celebrates Yom HaZikaron (Memorial Day) beginning Monday, followed by Yom Ha’atzmaut (Independence Day) on Tuesday. Once those days of remembrance and celebration are complete, analysts/observers note tha the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) will be free to carry out whatever is necessary to protect the nation.
May could well be a very HOT month for the middle east.
Iran –
Iran claims its navy forced a US submarine to the surface as it entered the Gulf, Iranian navy commander Shahram Irani told state television on Thursday, in the latest report of an apparent confrontation between Iranian and US forces in the Gulf.
OBSERVATION – Color this questionable. Iran has a history of propagandistic declarations like this. However, it also historically gone out of its way to play chicken with US naval vessels in the straits of Hormoz region.
**
The foreign minister of Iran and Jordan spoke on Thursday and agreed to meet “as soon as possible” in order to discuss relations between the two countries. This development comes after Tehran renewed its ties with Riyadh a little over a month ago.
OBSERVATION – That giant sucking sound is the collapse of US foreign policy and influence in the middle east. Everyone seems to be wanting to get buddy buddy with Iran now.
Turkey -
74-year-old Kemal Kilicdaroglu - pronounced Kilitch-daro-lu - has the biggest chance so far of unseating Turkey’s most powerful man, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, since he took power 20 years ago. A soft-spoken former civil servant, he is the very antithesis of Turkey’s grandstanding, powerful president.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65309688
Erdogan disdains the EU and is a rogue within NATO. Kilicdaroglu intends to revive Turkey’s bid to join the EU. Kilicdaroglu’s political coalition, The National Alliance, also wants to end Erdogan’s opposition to Sweden joining NATO. Erdogan’s poor response to the February 2023 earthquakes has become a major issue. So has Turkey’s rampant inflation.
OBSERVATION – Running on a pro-economy platform, his party is currently leading Erdogan but so far neither appears to have the 50+% needed to avoid a run-off. His policies are aligned to remove factors that have kept Turkey from being accepted into the EU’s economic sphere, potentially relieving many of the ongoing economic woes of the country.
Central / South America General-
Chilean President Gabriel Boric announced a plan to nationalize Chile’s lithium industry, the second largest in the world. The move could force some U.S. mining companies, such as North Carolina-based Albemarle Corp, to leave the country.
Africa general –
Sudan –
Another Afghanistan fiasco is underway in the Sudan. An unknown number of American citizens (estimated 19,000 American citizens ) remain trapped in Sudan, and it may already be too late to get them out. The civil war in Sudan between two warlords reached the capital of Khartoum almost a week ago, and yet no one apparently had thought to extract US diplomatic personnel and private citizens from the country.
The embassy sent out an alert that it’s already too late for any normal exit: The airport, located in central Khartoum, is closed but would be inoperable even if it reopened due to damage from bombardment and fighting. The roughly 70 U.S. staff at the embassy have no options to leave Sudan on their own without immense risk to their safety. For the most part, U.S. diplomats in Sudan are unaccompanied, meaning they do not have their family with them at what’s considered a challenging post, a State Department official said.
US forces are apparently staging in Djibouti for some kind of extraction operation with 15 USAF C-17A transports that have flown to there.
Evidence has emerged of Russia’s Wagner arming militia leader battling Sudan’s army. This would parallel other reports that Iran is doing the same.
OBSERVATION – the situation there is rapidly growing into a potential regional conflict.
Globalism / Great Reset –
The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation has been giving millions of dollars to a nongovernmental organization that tries to normalize commercial sex work and education on gender identities for children 10 and under.
The International Planned Parenthood Federation (IPPF) is made up of 120 independent organizations in over 146 countries and has received over $80 million from Gates. The World Health Organization has also significantly contributed to the IPPF.
The IPPF toolkit focuses heavily on the sexuality of children under 10, encouraging the teaching that “sexuality is a part of you from the moment you are born.” The organization tries very hard to make people view children as “sexual beings, regardless of their age.”
OBSERVATION – Destruction of the nuclear family is the goal of the globalists and as one peruses the interweb news it is remarkable just how many of the powerful elites are tied up in pedophilia and other child sex trafficking/porn and now enraged transgender push to mutilate all children. I honestly think Epstein is just the tip of the iceberg for a lot of this – and note, his client list is still yet to be published and criminal actions taken against them.
Economy –
Former Treasury secretary Lawrence Summers sees a “real risk” of stagflation in the U.S. economy and believes the Federal Reserve committed a mistake by not recognizing inflation earlier on.
In an April 20 podcast with journalist Kara Swisher, Summers was asked about economist Mohamed El-Erian’s warning that the crisis triggered by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) could result in cautious lending from banks and eventually stagflation—referring to an economic cycle characterized by slow growth, high unemployment, and inflation.
“I think it’s a real risk,” Summers replied. “Given where inflation is right now and given the downward pressures on the economy, I certainly think stagflation is a meaningful risk right now, and it’s probably a risk that’s underpriced in the markets.”
OBSERVATION – From current inflation levels, to deflation, to hyperinflation to stagflation, these scenarios have been bantered about the economists for over a year now. With more and more economic data showing that the trends are pointing to a summer 2023 convergence and likely recession, just what will happen to prices. So far all of these scenarios are not good for the economic forecast, indicating that the US (and likely global economy) could suffer recession for more than a year.
CW2/Domestic violence –
IMHO - CW2 will not break out like CW1, but will likely develop from political violence and civil breakdown with the most likely window opening with the 2024 presidential election cycle. Growing anarchy from the left via black racist rioting, Transtifa/antifa violence added to the clear weaponization of the alphabet agencies and two tiered justice will further cause the right to weaponize. Leftists can exploit mob actions, invade government buildings and burn cities to the ground because the government ALLOWS them to. Well…how many years now have we heard the word “insurrection” over a single protest on January 6th 2021?
I suspect that when the regime jumps in with both feet, a formal CW2 will break out. I’m examining one list of steps towards a CW scenario and hope to give this some further break down then.
**
Chicago is preparing for another weekend of violence by youths following last week’s downtown rioting, assaults, arson attacks & shootings.
Youths are sharing a flyer on social media calling for a “part 2.”
A new text alert system aims to warn Chicago residents of future “teen takeovers.” This most recent “teen takeover” occurred last weekend, in which Chicago youth wreaked havoc throughout the city, committing a litany of crimes including shootings, arson, theft, and assault.
The text alert initiative, “Parents For Chicago,” is being funded by the nonprofit, “I’m Telling, Don’t Shoot,” launched by a local, independent philanthropist. Those wishing to sign up for the alert service can text “CHICAGOKIDS” to 21000, or email ParentsForChicago@gmail.com.
While Chicago residents have decried the violence and, now, are attempting to counter it, leadership has largely defended the youths’ crimes.
OBSERVATION - Expect this “part 2” to be bigger given that little to nothing was done to interdict the rioting last weekend. Mayor-elect Brandon Johnson has defended the rioters, saying they’re victims of society. That will only encourage more rioting. Looking to see if this will spread to other cities.
**
The “national divorce” is being more evident by the patterns of people moving the past few years.
“More than 61 percent of the counties that voted for Biden in 2020 lost population, while 65 percent of Trump-supporting counties gained population,” the Issues and Insights analysis said. The data showed that some 2,562,937 people moved from Democrat-leaning counties to Republican-leaning counties since Biden was elected in the divisive November 2020 election.
OBSERVATION – the massive shifting of population since the biden regime took control has been historic. Some are noting/complaining that the migration out of blue controlled cities/states are spreading liberals into red states – diluting them. From what I’ve seen here in the Redoubt region, while some blues have moved in, many more reds have come, making the state redder. Recent voting kinda confirms that further. Culturally, urban immigrants are intimidated by the rural nature of the region - though they romantize about it. That is until reality hits. However, those wishing to return to their communist utopias are now hindered by an adverse housing market that has made loans bearly affordable, and the prices for homes dropping – placing these out of place blues underwater.
Strategic Activity / Deployments –
US still developing “options” for the rescue of Americans trapped in Sudan.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Biden has recently signed an executive order that could potentially affect millions of Americans in the name of environmental justice. The order is an attempt to further strengthen federal agencies and aims to address so-called environmental “inequities” that impact communities of “color, low-income communities, and indigenous communities.”
OBSERVATION – I think by now we all understand what is being said here. This will be more programs to transfer wealth to blacks and other minorities while denying the maintenance and development of infrastructure project that would benefit all. Interesting to note that democrat controlled cities and states are the worst at addressing environmental issues in their communities - even with funding. Flint MI is a prime example. Additionally, red areas will face retribution environmentally for not being blue – case in point Palestine OH.
North/South Korea –
See Japan preps for NK satellite launch below under Japan.
Japan –
Japan on Saturday ordered the country’s military to prepare countermeasures against any rocket debris that falls on its territory as North Korea prepares a satellite launch. The rocket carrying North Korea’s first reconnaissance satellite could be launched within days.
Kyodo news agency cited government sources as saying the SDF would prepare to deploy ground-based Patriot Advanced Capability-3 interceptor missiles and Aegis-equipped destroyer warships carrying sea-based Standard Missile-3 interceptor projectiles.
“We will make preparations to be able to respond to any circumstance that could cause damage to Japan,” one of the sources said.
Japanese Defense Minister Yasukazu Hamada said the country’s Self-Defense Forces (SDF) needed to be at increased readiness.
Hamada could potentially “order the destruction of ballistic missiles” and said the military’s preparations should include the deployment of troops to the southern prefecture of Okinawa to “minimize damage,” according to a statement from the Defense Ministry.
OBSERVATION – It would be interesting to see if Japan has to fire at any launch vehicle. This largely depends on the orbit NK decides on. Most common orbits are polar which would take the rocket over China and Russian rather than the northern islands of Japan.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russian forces have initiated an offensive who’s declared goals are to reach and secure the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast borders — an objective that Russian Chief of General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov had also outlined on December 22, 2022. Troop and equipment build up is being noted
This offensive action is focused on several fronts –
1) the Svatove-Kreminna front,
2) Bahkmut region,
3) Donetsk region and
4) Zaporizhizhia Oblast around the town of Vuhledar.
Analysts are noting that the Russian offensive operations are winding down. Some offensive operation will continue to be attempted, however, a lot of assessment indicates they’ve lost the capability to sustain a credible offensive to try to capture the Donbas region having frittered away resources against Bahkmut.
Russia is also capable of launching cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure - primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.
********
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures with highs now reaching the 60’s with light rain over most of the forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Fighting continued to be fierce at Bakhmut with Russian forces attacking the northeast corner of the city. Recent Russian artillery fire suggests a continued push to the northwest along the M-03 highway.
Ground fighting at Avdiyivka appears to have fallen off, while to the west-southwest Russians appear to be continuing to press their attack along the Ukrainian M-04 road.
Third night of Shahed drones strikes, this time appearing to focus on the Zaporizhzhia region.
The Svatove-Kreminna, Zaporizhizhia and Crimean fronts continue to be relatively quiet, with mostly scattered and sporatic Russian artillery strikes and minimal ground attacks
Russian Territory –
In Belgorod, about 3,000 people are being evacuated from 17 apartment buildings within a radius of 200 meters from the recent explosion crater. Also a second, unexploded bomb was found.
**
3 villages in Kursk region without power as result of shelling.
OUTLOOK –
No change in the conflict in the east. Eyes on Ukrainian movements and battlefield shaping operations (and those operations will be kept under tight OPSEC).
Russia has thrown a lot of Shahed drones into Ukraine the past few days in a very disorganized manner. Earlier this year the drones were a key component of saturating the Ukraine ADA network, enabling higher success using the larger missiles against electrical grid targets. Those expensive, highly accurate missiles have largely been absent from the battlefield, with the only real other systems used being S-300 ADA missiles in ground attack roles. One suspects that the Russian ballistic/cruise missiles are being reserved to attempt to counter the Ukrainian offensive by targeting C3CM elements. The question is will be are Russian targeting capabilities able to get these targets to delivery systems in a timely manner.
Israel –
Violent clashes broke out on Friday afternoon between Hamas and Fatah supporters at the Temple Mount, according to a report by N12. Videos of the clashes were posted on social media.
OBSERVATION - With elections pending in the West Bank this will get hotter. Already, much of the conflict has occurred with Hamas aligned groups launching terror attacks against Israeli citizens in the East Jerusalem and Nablus area. These attacks have been designed to mobilize the radical factions there against Fatah. This is shaping up to be a repeat of the campaign Hamas waged in Gaza to kick Fatah out of there as well.
Africa general –
Sudan –
Situation in Sudan continues to deteriorate, with both sides receiving military support from surrounding/nearby nations as the conflict threatens to spread.
With the fighting in Sudan entering its second week, the nation’s military agreed to coordinate evacuation efforts for diplomats and citizens from the US, UK, China and France. In a statement, the military said the Saudi diplomatic mission has already been evacuated.
The news comes a day after the US State Department said the situation was still too risky for an evacuation of embassy personnel. Later in the day, the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) said they were ready to “partially” open “all airports” in Sudan to evacuate foreign citizens. However, it is not possible to verify which airports they control. Khartoum’s international airport has been closed due to the violence, with foreign embassies - including the UK and US - unable to bring their citizens home.
Satellite images analyzed by CNN, show one Russian Ilyushin-76 transport aircraft shuttling between two key Libyan airbases belonging to Haftar and used by the Wagner group. Sources tell CNN the plane supplied Sudan’s RSF with weaponry. Other countries like Egypt are in the process of supplying weaponry to the Sudan Army.
There are reports and images circulating that also suggest RSF elements have captured short range surface-to-air missiles off the Sudan Army like the Russian made Osa-AKM and unverified reports Libyan militias may have supplied anti-aircraft weapons. Also, reports of the RSF attacking prisons to release criminals, the cross border organized smuggling into Libya and other border smuggling operations.
OBSERVATION – The failure of the embassy and State Dept to initiate evacuation of embassy staff and US citizens is again unforgiveable. Staging of US forces continue in Djibouti while biden et al tries to determine if it will be necessary to support the evacuation with US military forces. The word is the regime is trying to ‘develop options’.
An estimated 16,000 private U.S. citizens are registered with the embassy as being in Sudan, but the State Department has cautioned that that figure is likely inaccurate as there is no requirement for Americans to register nor is there a requirement to notify the embassy when they leave.
Currently the 1st BDE, 82d ABN is on DRF 1 status. But with no functioning airfield in Khartoum the evacuation risks are high! MANPADs could pose a significant threat to evac aircraft – mostly helicopters. The Sudan Army as the representatives of the govt would likely support, not interdict evacuation operations. The RSF would be very likely to try to shoot down aircraft – in part because 1) it is being supported by Iranian and Wagner elements and 2) it would delegitimize the Sudan army and current govt. Some could say that RSF preventing evacuations would be a defacto hostage scenario for them.
Practical note – an airborne operation/drop to try to secure the Khartoum int’l airport would be dangerously close to being a failure. Heavy losses could occur in the drop and any resupply via risky air ops. I suspect a different operation that would involve forces entering the country from the currently developing staging area at to Camp Lemmonier in Djibouti possibly establishing a forward operating airbase in the vicinity of Al Qadarif, Somilia. From there ground access towards Khartoum could be attempted. Issues being that long term ground support passage from Djibouti would have to be arranged with Ethiopia.
Needless to say this is another fine mess biden has gotten us into.