Globalism / Great Reset –
The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation has been giving millions of dollars to a nongovernmental organization that tries to normalize commercial sex work and education on gender identities for children 10 and under.
The International Planned Parenthood Federation (IPPF) is made up of 120 independent organizations in over 146 countries and has received over $80 million from Gates. The World Health Organization has also significantly contributed to the IPPF.
The IPPF toolkit focuses heavily on the sexuality of children under 10, encouraging the teaching that “sexuality is a part of you from the moment you are born.” The organization tries very hard to make people view children as “sexual beings, regardless of their age.”
OBSERVATION – Destruction of the nuclear family is the goal of the globalists and as one peruses the interweb news it is remarkable just how many of the powerful elites are tied up in pedophilia and other child sex trafficking/porn and now enraged transgender push to mutilate all children. I honestly think Epstein is just the tip of the iceberg for a lot of this – and note, his client list is still yet to be published and criminal actions taken against them.
Economy –
Former Treasury secretary Lawrence Summers sees a “real risk” of stagflation in the U.S. economy and believes the Federal Reserve committed a mistake by not recognizing inflation earlier on.
In an April 20 podcast with journalist Kara Swisher, Summers was asked about economist Mohamed El-Erian’s warning that the crisis triggered by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) could result in cautious lending from banks and eventually stagflation—referring to an economic cycle characterized by slow growth, high unemployment, and inflation.
“I think it’s a real risk,” Summers replied. “Given where inflation is right now and given the downward pressures on the economy, I certainly think stagflation is a meaningful risk right now, and it’s probably a risk that’s underpriced in the markets.”
OBSERVATION – From current inflation levels, to deflation, to hyperinflation to stagflation, these scenarios have been bantered about the economists for over a year now. With more and more economic data showing that the trends are pointing to a summer 2023 convergence and likely recession, just what will happen to prices. So far all of these scenarios are not good for the economic forecast, indicating that the US (and likely global economy) could suffer recession for more than a year.
CW2/Domestic violence –
IMHO - CW2 will not break out like CW1, but will likely develop from political violence and civil breakdown with the most likely window opening with the 2024 presidential election cycle. Growing anarchy from the left via black racist rioting, Transtifa/antifa violence added to the clear weaponization of the alphabet agencies and two tiered justice will further cause the right to weaponize. Leftists can exploit mob actions, invade government buildings and burn cities to the ground because the government ALLOWS them to. Well…how many years now have we heard the word “insurrection” over a single protest on January 6th 2021?
I suspect that when the regime jumps in with both feet, a formal CW2 will break out. I’m examining one list of steps towards a CW scenario and hope to give this some further break down then.
**
Chicago is preparing for another weekend of violence by youths following last week’s downtown rioting, assaults, arson attacks & shootings.
Youths are sharing a flyer on social media calling for a “part 2.”
A new text alert system aims to warn Chicago residents of future “teen takeovers.” This most recent “teen takeover” occurred last weekend, in which Chicago youth wreaked havoc throughout the city, committing a litany of crimes including shootings, arson, theft, and assault.
The text alert initiative, “Parents For Chicago,” is being funded by the nonprofit, “I’m Telling, Don’t Shoot,” launched by a local, independent philanthropist. Those wishing to sign up for the alert service can text “CHICAGOKIDS” to 21000, or email ParentsForChicago@gmail.com.
While Chicago residents have decried the violence and, now, are attempting to counter it, leadership has largely defended the youths’ crimes.
OBSERVATION - Expect this “part 2” to be bigger given that little to nothing was done to interdict the rioting last weekend. Mayor-elect Brandon Johnson has defended the rioters, saying they’re victims of society. That will only encourage more rioting. Looking to see if this will spread to other cities.
**
The “national divorce” is being more evident by the patterns of people moving the past few years.
“More than 61 percent of the counties that voted for Biden in 2020 lost population, while 65 percent of Trump-supporting counties gained population,” the Issues and Insights analysis said. The data showed that some 2,562,937 people moved from Democrat-leaning counties to Republican-leaning counties since Biden was elected in the divisive November 2020 election.
OBSERVATION – the massive shifting of population since the biden regime took control has been historic. Some are noting/complaining that the migration out of blue controlled cities/states are spreading liberals into red states – diluting them. From what I’ve seen here in the Redoubt region, while some blues have moved in, many more reds have come, making the state redder. Recent voting kinda confirms that further. Culturally, urban immigrants are intimidated by the rural nature of the region - though they romantize about it. That is until reality hits. However, those wishing to return to their communist utopias are now hindered by an adverse housing market that has made loans bearly affordable, and the prices for homes dropping – placing these out of place blues underwater.
Strategic Activity / Deployments –
US still developing “options” for the rescue of Americans trapped in Sudan.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Biden has recently signed an executive order that could potentially affect millions of Americans in the name of environmental justice. The order is an attempt to further strengthen federal agencies and aims to address so-called environmental “inequities” that impact communities of “color, low-income communities, and indigenous communities.”
OBSERVATION – I think by now we all understand what is being said here. This will be more programs to transfer wealth to blacks and other minorities while denying the maintenance and development of infrastructure project that would benefit all. Interesting to note that democrat controlled cities and states are the worst at addressing environmental issues in their communities - even with funding. Flint MI is a prime example. Additionally, red areas will face retribution environmentally for not being blue – case in point Palestine OH.
North/South Korea –
See Japan preps for NK satellite launch below under Japan.
Japan –
Japan on Saturday ordered the country’s military to prepare countermeasures against any rocket debris that falls on its territory as North Korea prepares a satellite launch. The rocket carrying North Korea’s first reconnaissance satellite could be launched within days.
Kyodo news agency cited government sources as saying the SDF would prepare to deploy ground-based Patriot Advanced Capability-3 interceptor missiles and Aegis-equipped destroyer warships carrying sea-based Standard Missile-3 interceptor projectiles.
“We will make preparations to be able to respond to any circumstance that could cause damage to Japan,” one of the sources said.
Japanese Defense Minister Yasukazu Hamada said the country’s Self-Defense Forces (SDF) needed to be at increased readiness.
Hamada could potentially “order the destruction of ballistic missiles” and said the military’s preparations should include the deployment of troops to the southern prefecture of Okinawa to “minimize damage,” according to a statement from the Defense Ministry.
OBSERVATION – It would be interesting to see if Japan has to fire at any launch vehicle. This largely depends on the orbit NK decides on. Most common orbits are polar which would take the rocket over China and Russian rather than the northern islands of Japan.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russian forces have initiated an offensive who’s declared goals are to reach and secure the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast borders — an objective that Russian Chief of General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov had also outlined on December 22, 2022. Troop and equipment build up is being noted
This offensive action is focused on several fronts –
1) the Svatove-Kreminna front,
2) Bahkmut region,
3) Donetsk region and
4) Zaporizhizhia Oblast around the town of Vuhledar.
Analysts are noting that the Russian offensive operations are winding down. Some offensive operation will continue to be attempted, however, a lot of assessment indicates they’ve lost the capability to sustain a credible offensive to try to capture the Donbas region having frittered away resources against Bahkmut.
Russia is also capable of launching cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure - primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.
********
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures with highs now reaching the 60’s with light rain over most of the forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Fighting continued to be fierce at Bakhmut with Russian forces attacking the northeast corner of the city. Recent Russian artillery fire suggests a continued push to the northwest along the M-03 highway.
Ground fighting at Avdiyivka appears to have fallen off, while to the west-southwest Russians appear to be continuing to press their attack along the Ukrainian M-04 road.
Third night of Shahed drones strikes, this time appearing to focus on the Zaporizhzhia region.
The Svatove-Kreminna, Zaporizhizhia and Crimean fronts continue to be relatively quiet, with mostly scattered and sporatic Russian artillery strikes and minimal ground attacks
Russian Territory –
In Belgorod, about 3,000 people are being evacuated from 17 apartment buildings within a radius of 200 meters from the recent explosion crater. Also a second, unexploded bomb was found.
**
3 villages in Kursk region without power as result of shelling.
OUTLOOK –
No change in the conflict in the east. Eyes on Ukrainian movements and battlefield shaping operations (and those operations will be kept under tight OPSEC).
Russia has thrown a lot of Shahed drones into Ukraine the past few days in a very disorganized manner. Earlier this year the drones were a key component of saturating the Ukraine ADA network, enabling higher success using the larger missiles against electrical grid targets. Those expensive, highly accurate missiles have largely been absent from the battlefield, with the only real other systems used being S-300 ADA missiles in ground attack roles. One suspects that the Russian ballistic/cruise missiles are being reserved to attempt to counter the Ukrainian offensive by targeting C3CM elements. The question is will be are Russian targeting capabilities able to get these targets to delivery systems in a timely manner.
Israel –
Violent clashes broke out on Friday afternoon between Hamas and Fatah supporters at the Temple Mount, according to a report by N12. Videos of the clashes were posted on social media.
OBSERVATION - With elections pending in the West Bank this will get hotter. Already, much of the conflict has occurred with Hamas aligned groups launching terror attacks against Israeli citizens in the East Jerusalem and Nablus area. These attacks have been designed to mobilize the radical factions there against Fatah. This is shaping up to be a repeat of the campaign Hamas waged in Gaza to kick Fatah out of there as well.
Africa general –
Sudan –
Situation in Sudan continues to deteriorate, with both sides receiving military support from surrounding/nearby nations as the conflict threatens to spread.
With the fighting in Sudan entering its second week, the nation’s military agreed to coordinate evacuation efforts for diplomats and citizens from the US, UK, China and France. In a statement, the military said the Saudi diplomatic mission has already been evacuated.
The news comes a day after the US State Department said the situation was still too risky for an evacuation of embassy personnel. Later in the day, the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) said they were ready to “partially” open “all airports” in Sudan to evacuate foreign citizens. However, it is not possible to verify which airports they control. Khartoum’s international airport has been closed due to the violence, with foreign embassies - including the UK and US - unable to bring their citizens home.
Satellite images analyzed by CNN, show one Russian Ilyushin-76 transport aircraft shuttling between two key Libyan airbases belonging to Haftar and used by the Wagner group. Sources tell CNN the plane supplied Sudan’s RSF with weaponry. Other countries like Egypt are in the process of supplying weaponry to the Sudan Army.
There are reports and images circulating that also suggest RSF elements have captured short range surface-to-air missiles off the Sudan Army like the Russian made Osa-AKM and unverified reports Libyan militias may have supplied anti-aircraft weapons. Also, reports of the RSF attacking prisons to release criminals, the cross border organized smuggling into Libya and other border smuggling operations.
OBSERVATION – The failure of the embassy and State Dept to initiate evacuation of embassy staff and US citizens is again unforgiveable. Staging of US forces continue in Djibouti while biden et al tries to determine if it will be necessary to support the evacuation with US military forces. The word is the regime is trying to ‘develop options’.
An estimated 16,000 private U.S. citizens are registered with the embassy as being in Sudan, but the State Department has cautioned that that figure is likely inaccurate as there is no requirement for Americans to register nor is there a requirement to notify the embassy when they leave.
Currently the 1st BDE, 82d ABN is on DRF 1 status. But with no functioning airfield in Khartoum the evacuation risks are high! MANPADs could pose a significant threat to evac aircraft – mostly helicopters. The Sudan Army as the representatives of the govt would likely support, not interdict evacuation operations. The RSF would be very likely to try to shoot down aircraft – in part because 1) it is being supported by Iranian and Wagner elements and 2) it would delegitimize the Sudan army and current govt. Some could say that RSF preventing evacuations would be a defacto hostage scenario for them.
Practical note – an airborne operation/drop to try to secure the Khartoum int’l airport would be dangerously close to being a failure. Heavy losses could occur in the drop and any resupply via risky air ops. I suspect a different operation that would involve forces entering the country from the currently developing staging area at to Camp Lemmonier in Djibouti possibly establishing a forward operating airbase in the vicinity of Al Qadarif, Somilia. From there ground access towards Khartoum could be attempted. Issues being that long term ground support passage from Djibouti would have to be arranged with Ethiopia.
Needless to say this is another fine mess biden has gotten us into.
Just a note to thank you for your work on this thread.
Globalism / Great Reset –
WHO Assembly meeting is still scheduled for May 21-30, 2023, at which time it is antipated they will institute the modifications to the pandemic treaty, usurping the will of the people in signatory countries for a globalist medical tyranny. Keep this date on your calendar.
Economy –
More than a month after the failure of the Silicon Valley Bank, Moody’s Investors Service downgraded 11 investors. Six U.S. banks were placed on Moody’s review list in March, per Reuters.
All six banks put for review failed and were downgraded with the new study, including Comerica Inc., First Republic Bank, Intrust Financial Corporation, UMB Financial Corp, Western Alliance Bancorp and Zions Bancorporation.
The other downgraded banks include Associated Banc-Corp., First Hawaiian Inc., Washington Federal Inc. and U.S. Bank, reported WSJ.
OBSERVATION – Banking is still on shaky ground and the question becomes can they weather the implosion of the housing and new car markets (new, high interest rates) combined with a recession.
**
U.S. foreclosure filings jumped 22% in the first quarter compared to the same period a year ago, according to a report from real estate data analytics firm ATTOM.
While still below pre-pandemic levels, foreclosure activity has increased on an annual basis for 23 straight months. The uptrend reflects higher jobless rates, ongoing economic challenges and backlogged foreclosures working through the pipeline after the lifting of government interventions to help struggling homeowners during the pandemic, said Rob Barber, chief executive officer of ATTOM.
OBSERVATION – All kinds of credit related debt is seeing higher default rates. Auto loans are second only to this. A full blown recession will make matters worse. Get out/keep out of unnecessary debt now.
Invasion of Illegals –
New York City Democratic Mayor Eric Adams ripped President Joe Biden’s policies on the southern border Friday, saying that the White House’s position on the issue has turned the Big Apple into a disaster.
Adams has repeatedly asked for assistance from the federal government as New York City deals with thousands of illegal immigrants who have made their way to the city thanks to Biden’s lax border policies. New York City will spend $4.2 billion to house and care for illegal immigrants by the middle of 2024.
OBSERVATION – This is but a fraction of the numbers that are impacting border cities, where tens and even hundreds of thousands have poured into. But NYC was already well down the road into becoming a disaster given their essential condonement of crime and other policies.
**
Republican Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton said his office is reviewing information regarding the Red Cross after a Daily Caller News Foundation report found that the organization had guides for migrants trying to cross the U.S.-Mexico border, he revealed exclusively to the DCNF in a sit-down interview.
Paxton noted that his office has yet to open any formal investigation into the matter, telling the DCNF that his team is “starting to gather facts and determine whether that is something we need to dedicate some of our resources to it.” The DCNF obtained the guides in February that showed routes to the U.S. border and provided a paper on what to do when encountering the dangers along the trip.
The American Red Cross sits on the board of the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s (FEMA) Food and Shelter program that hands millions of dollars in U.S. taxpayer funding to nonprofit groups supporting migrants released into the U.S. interior.
OBSERVATION – The ARC lost my respect following their misuse/misappropriation of the millions of dollars donated after 9/11 to help the victims. They continue their socialistic ways.
For those caught up in a disaster, their ‘policies’ only make matters worse for those who seek help and shelter from them. Time and time again, local communities have brought meals to Red Cross shelters only to have it turned away or dumped in the garbage because it didn’t come from one of their ‘approved’ vendors. In some cases, the shelter threatened to prohibit anyone who left the shelter to accept food with being banned from returning. This often resulted in the shelterees going for days without food.
If your church has coordinated with the ARC to be a shelter, they will not let your pastoral staff in to minister to the people, only their ‘approved’ social workers (so called ministers).
Biden / Harris watch –
biden’s increasing gaffs are making his handlers increasingly uneasy over the prospect of going into primary and especially general election debates.
CW2/Domestic violence –
Push back (FAFO) from the normal community in regards to violent threats by Transtifa elements towards women over their ‘presumed’ right of a man faking their gender as a woman to use women’s toilets is growing. Within in it is the growing call by Transtifa to arm up and become increasingly violent towards opponents. The link below pretty well sums up my thoughts.
Be warned – don’t poke the bear because as the article states – “You will be fighting for your right to intrude into an area that you don’t belong in, and I will be fighting for something far greater than that.”
**
There were no large or disruptive gatherings forming in and around Chicago’s Millennium Park Saturday. What there has been - a larger police presence and others coming together to deter another teen takeover.
Domestic / International Terror (modified)-
Less than two years after President Biden withdrew U.S. personnel from Afghanistan, the country has become a significant coordination site for the Islamic State as the terrorist group plans attacks across Europe and Asia, and conducts “aspirational plotting” against the United States, according to a classified Pentagon assessment that portrays the threat as a growing security concern. (WaPo).
OBSERVATION – Terror from the likes of ISIS and AQ are also causing problems with Afghanistan and Pakistan’s govts as they are challenging the existing rulers for control. Many areas of these countries are under the real governance by AQ or ISIS. While they are currently securing their operational power bases in these countries, it is only time before they start reaching out again to strike at US interests around the world.
Strategic Activity / Deployments –
Ongoing operations to try to evacuate US civilians from Sudan. See Africa General below for current details.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Lu Jianwang, one of the accused Chinese spies arrested on suspicion of operating a secret police station in New York City, was shown to have attended dinners and fundraisers with high-level Democratic lawmakers, including Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, Rep. Grace Meng and New York City Mayor Eric Adams, according to an investigation.
China –
Indonesia is only drafting plans for an evacuation from Taiwan in the event of war with China. They are not actively evacuating at this time. There are believed to be over 300,000 Indonesians living in Taiwan currently.
North/South Korea –
Watch continues for any satellite launch.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russian forces have initiated an offensive who’s declared goals are to reach and secure the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast borders — an objective that Russian Chief of General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov had also outlined on December 22, 2022. Troop and equipment build up is being noted
This offensive action is focused on several fronts –
1) the Svatove-Kreminna front,
2) Bahkmut region,
3) Donetsk region and
4) Zaporizhizhia Oblast around the town of Vuhledar.
Analysts are noting that the Russian offensive operations are winding down. Some offensive operation will continue to be attempted, however, a lot of assessment indicates they’ve lost the capability to sustain a credible offensive to try to capture the Donbas region having frittered away resources against Bahkmut.
Russia is also capable of launching cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure - primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures with highs now reaching the 60’s with light rain over most of the forecast period.
RUMINT –
Former CIA Director David Petraeus says the U.S.-trained Ukrainian counter offensive is scheduled to begin in May, with the goal of severing Russia’s land route to Crimea, while also demonstrating to Putin that the Ukrainians are willing to “out-suffer” the Russians:
NOTE – Petraeus is a dishonored hack IMHO. The May date for the offensive is generally thought to be the opening of the window of opportunity due to the drying out of the soils by that time.
**
More RUMINT that Ukrainians have established a small bridgehead over Dnipro Riber near the town of Dachy, Kherson Oblast, at the eastern bank of the Dnipro River, just upstream of Kherson. This move may have forced Russian forces to withdraw behind the Konka River.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Fighting continued to be fierce at Bakhmut with Russian forces attacking the northeast abd eastern portions of the city.
Ground fighting at Avdiyivka appears to have fallen off.
Russian army launched S-300 missiles at several settlements of Kharkiv region and Kharkiv city last night.
The Svatove-Kreminna, Zaporizhizhia and Crimean fronts were relatively quiet, with mostly scattered and sporatic Russian artillery strikes and minimal ground attacks Possible Ukraine amphibious operation in Kherson region could eventually threaten Russian positions in Zaporizhizhia and defenses of Crimea.
OUTLOOK –
No change in the conflict in the east. Eyes on Ukrainian movements and battlefield shaping operations (and those operations will be kept under tight OPSEC).
RUMINT of a small bridgehead across the Dnipro River, if true, could be a sign of shaping the battlefield. Russia has built its defenses there based on the idea that Ukraine would be unable to cross the Dnipir in any sized force that could threaten approaches to Crimea from that direction, and had shifted forces from there to the fights in Bakhmut and Avdiyivka. This tactic is similar to last summer where Ukrainian threats in Kherson Oblast drew Russian units from eastern positions, enabling Ukraine to blast thru Russian lines in the Kharkiv region and as Russia redeployed forces back there, to then initiate the Kherson counter offensive. We are still early in the head games shaping the battlefield for the Ukranian offensive, but Ukraine is still playing off the Russian fear of losing Crimea combined with resources being diverted to the Avdiyivka and Bakhmut fights to force Russia to shift forces to threats that may not exist.
Israel –
Tens of thousands of Israelis packed Tel Aviv streets on Saturday for the 16th consecutive week to protest government judicial reforms they see as an attack on democracy.
The weekly protests have continued despite Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on March 27 announcing a “pause” to allow for talks on the reforms which were moving through parliament and split the nation.
Saturday’s demonstration comes ahead of another mass protest planned for the coastal city on Sunday to coincide with a Netanyahu speech to the general assembly of the Jewish Federations of North America.
The government’s reform proposals would curtail the authority of the Supreme Court and give politicians greater powers over the selection of judges.
OBSERVATION – The Jewish high court is in many ways the defacto ruler of the country given their powers and insulation from the other branches of govt. They appoint their own judges and can overrule any law passed by the Knesset. It is also VERY leftist, putting it at conflict with much of Israel. The proposed reforms remove much of their isolation and put it more under the Knesset. Leftists in Israel are protesting this move – as it removes a powerful tool at their disposal. This is also a protest to counter the rising strength and popularity of the right.
Africa general –
Sudan –
Situation in Sudan continues to deteriorate.
The US diplomats & their families evacuated from Sudan yesterday in a “fast & clean” operation due to the “unacceptable risk” in the country right now. The operation was carried out by 100 special forces who spent less than an hour on the ground. The operation evacuated fewer than 100 people, US officials told reporters.
Earlier, the RSF claimed it had “coordinated with the US Forces Mission consisting of six aircraft, for evacuating diplomats and their families on Sunday morning.”
France, Netherlands, Turkey, Italy, Belgium and Japan also say they have begun operations to evacuate their citizens. On Saturday, more than 150 people, mostly citizens of Gulf countries, as well as Egypt, Pakistan and Canada were evacuated by sea to the Saudi Arabian port of Jeddah.
OBSERVATION –There are still tens of thousands non-citizens needing evacuation.
Misc of Note –
I’ve stated that fire danger in the west will be increased substantially as a result of the wet winter. The link below explains that in more detail. For those of you who live in fire prone areas make sure you have your defensible zone around your house prepared early, double check your evacuation/bug out plans, prepack clothing and important papers for immediate escape, check (actually drive) escape routes to ensure they are passable and contact those you expect to stay with to make sure there have been no changes.