Happy Patriot’s Day – when civilians armed with the “assault rifles” of that day disrupted the govt attempt to confiscate arms and munitions from civilians, firing the ‘shot heard round the world’.
Wuhan virus –
The monovalent Moderna and Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccines are no longer authorized for use in the United States.
Economy –
Bloomberg) — The dollar is losing its reserve status at a faster pace than generally accepted as many analysts have failed to account for last year’s wild exchange rate moves, according to Stephen Jen.
The greenback’s share in global reserves slid last year at 10 times the average speed of the past two decades as a number of countries looked for alternatives after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine triggered sanctions, Jen and his Eurizon SLJ Capital Ltd. colleague Joana Freire wrote in a note. Adjusting for exchange rate movements, the dollar has lost about 11% of its market share since 2016 and double that amount since 2008, they said.
“The dollar suffered a stunning collapse in 2022 in its market share as a reserve currency, presumably due to its muscular use of sanctions,” Jen and Freire wrote. “Exceptional actions taken by the US and its allies against Russia have startled large reserve-holding countries,” most of which are emerging economies from the so-called Global South, they said.
Jen is the former Morgan Stanley currency guru who coined the dollar smile theory.
OBSERVATION – The loss of the dollar as the reserve currency of the world is increasingly coming the front as groups like BRICS gain traction.
**
With the softening of the economy, consumers are starting to fall behind on their credit card and loan payments, with delinquency increasing modestly, according to executives at major U.S. banks.
Profits at Bank of America Corp, JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup Inc. beat analyst forecasts as lending giants earned more revenue from clients’ interest payments on credit cards. However, industry chiefs don’t expect the good times to last as a recession looms and customer delinquencies climb.
“We’ve seen some consumer financial health trends gradually weakening from a year ago,” Wells Fargo Chief Financial Officer Mike Santomassimo said on a conference call Friday to discuss its first quarter results.
OBSERVATION – This is one balloon who’s bursting will be significant, with even the major banks (the ones pushing credit cards) will be hurt, further limiting credit availability to small businesses being hit the hardest by a deep recession.
**
The number of housing starts tumbled in March, an indication that the housing market is taking a hit and may be falling into a recession.
Housing starts measure the change in the number of new residential buildings that began construction. Starts fell 17.2% from March 2022 to this past month, according to a Tuesday report from the Census Bureau. They are now at 1.42 million. From February to March, they fell 0.8%.
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/policy/economy/housing-starts-plunge-17-2-raising-recession-fears
OBSERVATION – Been saying it and will keep saying it. The housing market is a key bellweather indicator on the greater economy. It is currently not very healthy and that bodes ill for the economy in general which analysts are noting indicates an increasing probability of a sever recession this year.
Invasion of Illegals –
“The Department of State, in collaboration with the Department of Health and Human Services, is pleased to announce the creation of the Welcome Corps, a new private sponsorship program that empowers everyday Americans to play a leading role in welcoming refugees arriving through the U.S. Refugee Admissions Program (USRAP) and supporting their resettlement and integration as they build new lives in the United States. Over the past year, the American people have extended an extraordinarily welcoming hand to our Afghan allies, Ukrainians displaced by war, and Venezuelans and others fleeing violence and oppression. The Welcome Corps will build on Americans’ generosity of spirit by creating a durable program for Americans in communities across the country to privately sponsor refugees from around the world. The Welcome Corps is the boldest innovation in refugee resettlement in four decades.”
“In the first phase of the program, private sponsors participating in the Welcome Corps will be matched with refugees whose cases are already approved for resettlement under the USRAP. The Department of State will begin facilitating matches between private sponsors and refugees arriving within the first six months of 2023.”
OBSERVATION – Soon to be eventually forced upon the American people since biden has for all practical purposes erased our southern border.
Michael Yon has been warning of this - ““Migrants” in your living room. You may recall I have been warning this day would come. And the day will come. And you will be expected to take in “migrants” and fly a flag or symbol signifying you have “done your duty.”
**
During a Senate hearing Tuesday, Department of Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas refused to explain why an exponential surge in child smuggling and exploitation has happened under his watch and denied that the Department had lost track of 85,000 of these children.
Since the beginning of Fiscal Year 2021, 345,807 unaccompanied minors have been allowed to enter the United States through the southwest land border, U.S. Customs and Border Protection statistics show.
Thousands of these minors “have ended up in punishing jobs across the country—working overnight in slaughterhouses, replacing roofs, operating machinery in factories—all in violation of child labor laws,” the New York Times reported in February.
OBSERVATION - Democrats new slavery and child sex exploitation scheme. Oh and I’m sure there are plenty of republicans in on the feeding frenzy as well.
**
According to Fox News, U.S. officials are “seeing a 900% surge” in encounters with Chinese nationals at our southern border…
Footage taken by Fox News this week shows how Customs and Border Protection (CBP) are releasing busloads of Chinese nationals into the U.S. interior, just as the U.S.-Mexico border is seeing a 900% surge in encounters with migrants from the communist regime.
We have never witnessed anything like this before.
In 2022, a total of 1,987 Chinese nationals were apprehended along the southern border.
OBSERVATION – This is increasingly a very RED FLAG as these are health, single men of military age. We are increasingly at odds with China and China is very likely assisting in this migration into the US where in the event of a conflict over Taiwan, these illegals will strike internal targets in the US in terror strikes. Very, very much in line with China’s total war doctrine.
**
The number of migrants apprehended by U.S. immigration authorities after crossing the Mexican border without authorization increased by 25% in March as the Biden administration prepares for a major policy shift next month.
U.S. Border Patrol agents recorded over 162,000 apprehensions of migrants in between official ports of entry last month, a jump from the 130,000 apprehensions reported in February, federal statistics released Monday show.
The increase in migration follows a historical pattern of border crossings spiking in the spring. Despite the uptick, the number of migrant apprehensions last month was lower than the tallies recorded in March 2021 and March 2022.
OBSERVATION - Dispite biden’s claims to the contrary, these numbers continue to be at historical highs.
CW2/Domestic violence –
RUMINT that the ferals in Chicago are planning a repeat performance next Saturday.
**
Follow-on to my observations of the Transtifa and racial violence increase. The resent lootings and overall violence levels should be a RED flag when one considers how these mobs may react if we hit a severe recession/depression. They simply don’t have the coping mechanisms nor smarts to do anything but go even more violent.
**
Unrest continues in Akron OH. The details of the shooting and the string of tragic events in Walker’s life are detailed in the Ohio Attorney General’s case file released Monday after a grand jury declined to indict the eight officers who shot him. Akron and the attorney general’s office have refused to release the names of the eight officers.
Shot last June in a traffic stop.
OBSERVATION – BLM appears to be waking up wanting its share of the rioting spotlight.
Strategic Activity / Deployments –
USS Carl Vinson to join Nimitz CSG currently stationed near Taiwan. Combined with the USS Ronald Reagan CSG based in Japan, that places three carrier strike groups in the PRC/ROC AO
China –
After the FBI arrested two men in connection with a Chinese ‘secret police station’in New York, activists say there may be as many as six other similar illegal outposts across the US.
In addition to the Manhattan outpost that was shut down on Monday, Chinese police operate another station elsewhere in New York City, and one in Los Angeles, according to a New York Post report citing the advocacy group Safeguard Defenders.
OBSERVATION – Again, stories of these “police stations” have been floating around for many months now. This is just now gaining attention as tensions increase with China over Taiwan.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russian forces have initiated an offensive who’s declared goals are to reach and secure the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast borders — an objective that Russian Chief of General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov had also outlined on December 22, 2022. Troop and equipment build up is being noted
This offensive action is focused on several fronts –
1) the Svatove-Kreminna front,
2) Bahkmut region,
3) Donetsk region and
4) Zaporizhizhia Oblast around the town of Vuhledar.
Analysts are noting that the Russian offensive operations are winding down. Some offensive operation will continue to be attempted, however, a lot of assessment indicates they’ve lost the capability to sustain a credible offensive to try to capture the Donbas region having frittered away resources against Bahkmut.
Russia is also capable of launching cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure - primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.
********
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Monday during a visit to Brazil that Moscow wanted the conflict in Ukraine to end as soon as possible. At a news conference with his Brazilian counterpart Mauro Vieira, Lavrov thanked Brazil for its “understanding of the genesis of the situation in Ukraine” and said Russia had “an interest” in the conflict ending as soon as possible.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures with highs now reaching the 60’s with light rain over most of the forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Fighting continued to be fierce at Bakhmut with Russian forces attempting to breach the current Ukraine defensive set up along the rail line through the town. . A Russian push southwest of Bakhmut is now threatening a crossroads of the H-32 supply road near the village of Kostaintynivka .
Some increased activity all along the LOC west-northwest of Donetsk. This includes what appears to be an increased attempt to encircle Avdiivka.
Ukrainian air defense shot down 10 of 12 Russian drones in Odesa region overnight. There are hits at resorts, no casualties. Ukrainian air defense also shot down 6 Shahed drones near Zaporizhzhia , 1 near Dnipro city and 5 Shahed drones in Zaporizhzhia.
The Svatove-Kreminna, Zaporizhizhia and Crimean fronts were relatively quiet, with mostly scattered and sporatic Russian artillery strikes and minimal ground attacks. Russian probing attacks noted southwest of Kreminna.
OUTLOOK –
With the fight for Bakhmut still fierce, it appears that propaganda/PR trends continue to be projected. Russia now seems to be calling for peace talks - are they nervous about the impending offensive? Talk on the general Ukraine side – they are undermanned and under equipped for an offensive and may have to put it off for a year some say. Lull the Russians into complacency? Hold both sides at arms length for now.
Still the big question of when. Well things are still pretty wet and muddy. But since this is Ukraine’s terf, they may have a better feel for when conditions would be right.
Poland –
Poland has started installing additional security surveillance systems along its border with the Russian province of Kaliningrad, RMF 24 reported on April 18.
Saudi Arabia –
The Saudi foreign minister visited Syria for the first time since the civil war began in 2011. Last week the Syrian foreign minister visited Saudi Arabia and both agreed to end Syria’s international isolation.
Mexico -
The Mexican President has accused the United States of conducting “Espionage Operations” against his Country in an attempt to cause Destabilization in the Region; he further stated that the Mexican Armed Forces will begin Restricting Intelligence from U.S. Agencies.
OBSERVATION – More disrespect from Mexico.
Africa general –
Sudan - Separatist forces in Sudan are believed to have opened fire on a convoy of U.S. diplomats traveling in the nation’s capital of Khartoum on Monday as rival factions continued a bitter conflict over control of the country.
The Japanese Government has announced that they have begun preparations for the Deployment of Aircraft from the Japanese Self-Defense Force to assist in the Evacuation of Japanese and Foreign Citizens from Sudan due to “Deterioration of Security Conditions within the Country.”
OBSERVATION – plan for and extended and brutal civil war. Countries are trying to get their civilians out of the line of fire.
Been looking closely at dialing in what I post here rather than be a vacuum of everything. My purpose continues to be those items that pose a threat to the US and in a way a threat to me and my family. This is just part of my OODA loop.
WOOPS, didn’t add the ping list yesterday.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Now rice is a new villan in the GGR’s climate change scheme as producing too much greenhouse gasses and consumption/production needs to be drastically reduced.
Economy –
FED official says inflation won’t return to 2% for at least two years.
OBSERVATION - This has been noted by economists for many months now, now only being admitted to by the Fed. This basically means high prices and more inflation while the fed rate increases continue to hammer sectors that need access to credit.
**
The global rice shortfall forecast for 2022/2023 would come in at 8.7 million tonnes.
That would mark the largest global rice deficit since 2003/2004, when the global rice markets generated a deficit of 18.6 million tonnes.
OBSERVATION – Food shortages are a key component of civil disturbances in the third world.
**
J.B. Hunt Transport Services Inc., the fourth largest trucking company in the US, reported Monday first-quarter profit and revenue that missed expectations, as it explained volumes and revenue per truckload fell amid fears of a “freight recession.”
“To start, we’re in a challenging freight environment where there is deflationary price pressure for an industry that continues to face inflationary cost pressures,” President Shelley Simpson told investors in a post-earnings conference call.
Cargo demand has been softening as consumers spend more money on services than goods. Inflation and soaring credit card rates also hurt consumer demand.
According to Bloomberg, the latest data from American Trucking Association shows the truck tonnage index dropped 5.4% in March versus February, the largest decline since Aug. 2012.
“Falling home construction, decreasing factory output and soft retail sales all hurt contract freight tonnage,” said Bob Costello, chief economist for the ATA.
OBSERVATION - Remember just a year ago there was a shortage of trucks to meet demand. Now the reverse, in part note that this is due to the housing market collapse. This is just one example of the impacts that housing has on the broader economy. This IMHO points to a recession in the offing.
CW2/Domestic violence –
RUMINT that the ferals in Chicago are planning a repeat performance next Saturday.
**
Tensions remain high in Akron OH, with police using pepper spray after BLM & far-left rioters hurled projectiles at officers. The rioters are angry police weren’t indicted for shooting dead a black gunman last year following a car chase.
OBSERVATION – I would expect that things really break loose this weekend.
Domestic / International Terror (modified)-
Moved here from Invasion of Illegals. Increasing concerns of the surge in Chinese men into the country and that they may be shock troops for domestic attacks on infrastructure and civilians.
Strategic Activity / Deployments –
Five members of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, including the chair and the heads of the Army, Navy, Marine Corps, and Air Force, are set to leave their positions this year. The commanders of Northern Command, Space Command, and Cyber Command commanders are also changing. Former National Security Council staffer Peter Feaver said this is a “legacy moment” for the Biden administration. According to current and former Defense Department officials, Air Force General C.Q. Brown is the frontrunner to replace current Joint Chiefs chair Army Gen. Mark Milley.
OBSERVATION – “LEGACY” in a non-favorable way.
**
The Air Force Global Strike Command conducted an operational test launch of an unarmed Minuteman III ICMB last night from Vandenberg SFB. During this scheduled and routine test, the launch command was delivered from a US Navy E-6B Mercury aircraft.
POLITICAL FRONT –
A lot of political infighting over the debt ceiling combined with increasing evidence/proof of criminal activity by the biden syndicate. Lots of screaming and chest beating in various committee hearings.
China –
Beijing is embarking on the “most significant” expansion of its footprint in Antarctica after new satellite images revealed the communist regime has resumed construction on a fifth polar station.
The new station, located on Inexpressible Island near the Ross Sea, could double as a spying operation, a Washington-based think tank suggests.
“While essential for tracking and communicating with China’s growing array of scientific satellites, ground stations can support intelligence collection,” the report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies says.
“Importantly, the station’s position may enable it to collect signals intelligence from U.S.-allied Australia and New Zealand and could collect telemetry data on rockets launching from newly established space facilities in both countries.”
OBSERVATION – You can count on it that these bases are dual purpose.
**
(Reuters) - China and Iran are becoming increasingly brazen in their attempts to silence dissidents on American soil and influence U.S. policy, the FBI warned on Wednesday.
In a news briefing with reporters about transnational repression, FBI counterintelligence officials urged victims to come forward, saying the bureau is tracking a growing trend of foreign authoritarian regimes breaching U.S. laws to intimidate certain communities.
The officials said the governments have at times resorted to using private investigators to conduct surveillance on dissidents and that several criminal cases have been brought by federal prosecutors involving their use.
“A lot of these are new tactics and lines that are being crossed that we have not seen China and Iran do on U.S. soil in previous investigations,” one FBI counterintelligence official said. He added that the FBI hoped to raise awareness of such trends and alert the private investigator sector and state and local law enforcement.
OBSERVATION – Took the US long to take this threat seriously. Note from “Domestic / International Terror (modified)” above, China has an underground network already well established in the US that these Chinese ‘immigrants’ can be fitted into under cover. Perhaps some sort of reduced “Red Dawn” scenario is not too outlandish.
North/South Korea –
(AP) — North Korean leader Kim Jong Un said his country has built its first-ever military spy satellite and that he planned to launch it on an undisclosed date, state media reported Wednesday.
Previous missile and rocket tests have demonstrated that North Korea can send satellites into space, but many experts question whether it has cameras sophisticated enough to use for spying from a satellite because only low-resolution images were released after past test launches.
OBSERVATION – Such a satellite at this stage is more for show and internal propaganda than useful for spying. What is to be seen is the orbit NK launches on. Most likely a polar orbit – common for spy satellites. NK has successfully launched a couple into polar orbit a few years back – sparking concerns of a potential EMP attack (the satellite was at the presumed optimum altitude for such a strike). With the essentially off the shelf technology, camera and other sensors would be relatively good – already seeing similar in commercial imagery satellites that has provided a lot of details on the Ukraine war.
Japan –
Concerns that Japan is not reaching its conscription goals to expand its military to counter Chinese expansionism.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russian forces have initiated an offensive who’s declared goals are to reach and secure the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast borders — an objective that Russian Chief of General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov had also outlined on December 22, 2022. Troop and equipment build up is being noted
This offensive action is focused on several fronts –
1) the Svatove-Kreminna front,
2) Bahkmut region,
3) Donetsk region and
4) Zaporizhizhia Oblast around the town of Vuhledar.
Analysts are noting that the Russian offensive operations are winding down. Some offensive operation will continue to be attempted, however, a lot of assessment indicates they’ve lost the capability to sustain a credible offensive to try to capture the Donbas region having frittered away resources against Bahkmut.
Russia is also capable of launching cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure - primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.
********
Vladimir Putin fired an admiral in charge of his Pacific Fleet in a sign that the Russian despot is furious that military drills that were meant to send a message of strength to the West were a flop.
Putin sacked Admiral Sergei Avakyants, 66, the commander of his Pacific Fleet, as the vast military drills he had apparently overseen were still underway.
The move to axe Avakyants was confirmed by Deputy Prime Minister Yuri Trutnev.
NOTE – This was a high visibility exercise designed to impress China and intimidate the US. Russian readiness apparently has hit all time lows for the Pacific Fleet as it has for the rest of Russian armed forces.
**
Russia is using ‘ghost’ spy ships that are disguised as fishing trawlers off the UK coast to map out wind farms and communication cables for sabotage attacks in case it goes to war with the West, a probe has claimed.
The fleet of Russian ships, disguised as fishing trawlers and research vessels, are sailing through the North Sea to collect data on where wind farms, gas pipelines as well as power and internet cables are located, it has been claimed.
The vessels carry underwater surveillance to map out how the infrastructure is connected with the aim to plan sabotage attacks against the West, a documentary aired by public broadcasters in Denmark, Norway, Sweden and Finland has claimed.
NOTE – Classical Cold War style spying.
RUMINT-
Russians are evacuating civilians along the southern front, there are signs of imminent military action, and Ukraine’s Deputy Defense Minister admits the counteroffensive has started.
NOTE – Reports of mandatory evacuations for the region started circulating a couple weeks ago. See previous TMs
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures with highs now reaching the 60’s with light rain over most of the forecast period.
RUMINT –
Rumors that the Ukraine offensive has started in the Zaporizhizhia Front region – in line towards Crimea. WARNING – a lot of the statements on the start and focus on the offensive when it does kick off will be PSYOPS and propaganda. As noted under Russian RUMINT report that people are fleeing out of the occupied Zaporizhizhia region. IMHO it is still a little early for the offensive to start due to soil conditions, but I’m not on the ground there.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Fighting continued to be fierce at Bakhmut with Russian forces attacking the northeast corner of the city. A Russian push southwest of Bakhmut is now threatening a crossroads of the H-32 supply road near the village of Kostaintynivka .
Ukrainian air defense shot down 10 of 11 Shahed drones overnight around Dnipro.
The Svatove-Kreminna, Zaporizhizhia and Crimean fronts were relatively quiet, with mostly scattered and sporatic Russian artillery strikes and minimal ground attacks
Russian Territory –
The machine-building and metallurgical ‘Kirovsky Plant’ in St. Petersburg is on fire. It is one of the biggest ones in Russia. Another of the many ‘suspicious’ fires hitting major Russian facilities of late.
OUTLOOK –
Russian forces are continuing to push Ukrainian forces back at Bakhmut. Ukraine is struggling to hold resupply routes open and will need to make a strategic decision soon. So too Russia will need to make a strategic decision whether to press the attack and tie up more resources that will be desperately needed to counter any Ukrainian offensive. Any disengagement by either side would suggest that the offensive is close at hand. For Ukraine to free up offensive assets and for Russia to try to reconstitute an operational reserve.
Also noting Russia tossing Iranian made drones at Ukraine again. Absent are the more advanced missiles used in the past. Multiple speculatory explanations include stock running out to the more likely thought that they are being held in reserve to strike critical targets to blunt the Ukrainian offensive. Clearly they have given up on their strategic efforts to shut the Ukraine power grid down.
Another observation – Ukraine has received a fair amount of MIG fighter/bombers or late. Ukraine has a lot of pilots trained on these aircraft and I suspect that when the offensive kicks off Ukraine will try to establish local air superiority in support of its attack. This is something that Russia has failed to do in its year plus war effort. I suspect that US guidance and tactics will be involved here, with pre attack SEAD missions to take out most of the Russian ADA systems leaving the fighters to counter Russian fighters. Could be very interesting to watch.
Africa general –
Sudan -
Looks like countries positioning themselves to and initiating evacuation plans as fighting continues. Of growing concern is that the conflict will spill out into adjacent countries.
A Libyan militia leader and the Egyptian military have sent military support to opposing sides in Sudan - WSJ
“The Libyan militia leader have sent at least one plane to fly military supplies to Sudan’s RSF. Egypt sent warplanes & pilots to back the Sudanese military”
The Sudanese Armed Forces are reporting that they have repelled an major attack by the Ethiopian Army on the “Disputed” Al-Fashaga Region utilizing Tanks, Armored Vehicles, and Infantry; according to Sudanese Sources the Ethiopian Forces suffered severe losses and retreated. Sudanese Military alongside Allies in the Region are reported to be monitoring “Unusual Activity” from the Ethiopian Military along the border with Sudan with additional attacks being expected.
Seems that some sort of U.S. Military Buildup is taking place in Djibouti which is roughly 750 Miles from the Sudanese Capital of Khartoum. So far at least, 9 USAF C-17A transports that have routed to or have since departed Djibouti in the past 24 hours. Most likely preparations for the evacuation of U.S. Diplomats and Nationals from the country as nearby countries around Sudan appear to be on the verge of joining the conflict causing it to possibly “Boil Over”.
Rapid Support Forces reportedly are supported by Iran, who may well be seeking another friendly country in the region.
Misc of Note –
More massive tornados have struck Oklahoma and surrounding regions. Double check your tornado plans and preparations as this looks to be one of the worst tornado seasons in quite a while.