Free Republic

Romney’s crowds are building—28,000 in Morrisville, Pa., last night; 30,000 in West Chester, Ohio, Friday It isn’t only a triumph of advance planning: People came, they got through security and waited for hours in the cold. His rallies look like rallies now, not enactments. In some new way he’s caught his stride. He looks happy and grateful. His closing speech has been positive, future-looking, sweetly patriotic. His closing ads are sharp—the one about what’s going on at the rallies is moving. All the vibrations are right. A person who is helping him who is not a longtime Romneyite told me,...

Final Gravis Poll of Ohio: 0 49%, R 48% (+8% Dem) Gravis Marketing conducted an automated survey of 1316 likely voters in Ohio on November 4-5, 2012. The margin of error for the survey is +/-2.7% and higher for subgroups.

ARG Final National Poll: R 49%, 0 49% (+ 6 Dem) Interview dates: November 2-4, 2012 Sample size: 1200 likely voters Margin of error: ± 3 percentage points, 95% of the time

A few key takeaways: 1. Almost all of the recent vote surge for O is in the East, which is uniformly (D) anyway 2. In this, the final poll, Romney leads in the Midwest – for the very first time; massive voter swing – he leads in 3 of 4 regions (Midwest, West, & South). This is KEY. Romney has not led in the Midwest in any Gallup survey until this one. This is the key to the election. 3. Romney has firmed up the (R) base to an almost unprecedented degree – but so has Obama on the (D)...

The skeptical view of leaking these is that it smacks of what desperate campaigns do when they know they're losing. Remember Tom Barrett? He wanted the world to believe, contra nearly all of the independent polling, that he and Scott Walker were dead even two weeks out from the recall election this summer. That made perfect sense in his case: He was behind, everyone knew it, and he needed a morale booster to keep his base from giving up. How is that analogous to Romney's situation? Is there any Republican anywhere who's given up and thinks O's slight lead in...

In a conference call this afternoon, President Barack Obama’s re-election campaign had one central message for their supporters when Election Day arrives tomorrow: They should “keep calm,” even if they hear snippets of information favoring Republican Mitt Romney. “My warning, we need to stay calm for much of the day,” Stephanie Cutter, Mr. Obama’s deputy campaign manager, said, touting thousands of early ballots already submitted by voters. “We’ve already banked a pretty big portion of our vote.” The fear, she explained, was early numbers leaking before voters have finished going to the polls, creating unnecessary panic and pessimism among Democrats.

>BEGIN TRANSCRIPT RUSH: Well, the Drive-Bys are all excited because Romney has announced he's going back to Ohio tomorrow. On Election Day, Romney is going to Ohio, and the Drive-Bys are trying to interpret that as meaning it's slipping away. Romney has to head back into Ohio on Election Day because it's slipping away. The Drive-Bys are all excited by their own polling data. My friends, I've been looking at all the data that you have been looking at. I've been trying to separate feelings from thoughts and come up with some sort of an educated prognostication. You know, common...

OK. I hear that the campaigns actually have "real polls" that are highly proprietary and closely guarded, and much more accurate than the public polls like Gallup and Rasmussen. My question is: What makes them so much more accurate? I realize that there is some funny stuff with the public polls in terms of weighting. But what is the difference in methodology that makes them (reportedly) so much more accurate?

With less than 24 hours left before Election Day, “the movement has been in the direction of Mitt Romney” over President Barack Obama, Democratic pollster Doug Schoen tells Newsmax TV in an exclusive interview. “What I see is a presidential race that is within half a percent, according to the Real Clear Politics averages,” Schoen, the former pollster for President Bill Clinton, tells Newsmax. “But the important point that most commentators haven’t noted is that the last two days, maybe even the last day, the movement has been in the direction of Mitt Romney. Read Latest Breaking News from Newsmax.com:...

Updated electoral map is up.

Full Title:*******************************************************The End of Our National Tragedy? Romney Takes Lead in Final Rasmussen Poll …Update: Romney Leads in Gallup Poll Too*********************************************     Is the end of our national tragedy near? Mitt Romney took the lead today in the final Rasmussen poll before election day. Romney leads President Obama by one point, 49-48.Rasmussen reported: The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows Mitt Romney attracting support from 49% of voters nationwide, while President Obama earns the vote from 48%. Two percent (1%) prefer some other candidate, and one percent (1%) remains undecided.Rasmussen Reports will conduct our final tracking...

As the last full day of the 2012 presidential campaign gets under way, the Signal's prediction remains the same as it was nearly nine months ago: President Barack Obama will win reelection with 303 electoral votes, winning Ohio and Virginia but losing Florida to Gov. Mitt Romney. There is only about a 15 percent chance that we'll actually be correct, based on our prediction model, given the many combinations of close states that could go either way. Obama has a 24.8 percent likelihood of winning Florida, while Romney has a 40.8 percent chance of snagging Virginia and a 19.9 percent...

Nancy Pelosi has spent much of the past two years proclaiming that Democrats had a great shot at reclaiming the House and returning the speaker But her drive to regain the majority for Democrats is on the verge of a complete collapse. Democrats are expected to pick up five seats at best — a fraction of the 25 they need. On the eve of the election, some party officials are privately worried that Democrats might even lose ground and drop one or two seats to the Republican majority. It would mark an epic failure for a party that has a...

November 5, 2012 Romney 49%, Obama 48% in Gallup's Final Election Survey Early voting so far breaks 49% for Obama and 48% for Romney by the Gallup Editors PRINCETON, NJ -- President Barack Obama and Republican challenger Mitt Romney are within one percentage point of each other in Gallup's final pre-election survey of likely voters, with Romney holding 49% of the vote, and Obama 48%. After removing the 3% of undecided voters from the results and allocating their support proportionally to the two major candidates, Gallup's final allocated estimate of the race is 50% for Romney and 49% for Obama.

Oct 2012: Republican: 39.1% Democrat: 33.3% Other: 27.5% (R+5.8%) Sep 2012: Republican: 36.8% Democrat: 34.2% Other: 29.0% (R+2.6%)

Mitt Romney is ahead by a single percentage point in Ohio, according to internal polling data provided to MailOnline by a Republican party source. Internal campaign polling completed last night by campaign pollster Neil Newhouse has Romney three points up in New Hampshire, two points up in Iowa and dead level in Wisconsin and - most startlingly - Pennsylvania.

Mitt Romney is ahead by a single percentage point in Ohio, according to internal polling data provided to MailOnline by a Republican party source. Internal campaign polling completed last night by campaign pollster Neil Newhouse has Romney three points up in New Hampshire, two points up in Iowa and dead level in Wisconsin and - most startlingly - Pennsylvania. Internal poll show Romney trailing in Nevada, reflected in a consensus among senior advisers that Obama will probably win the state. Early voting in Nevada has shown very heavy turnout in the Democratic stronghold of Clark County and union organisation in...

The ABC NEWS/Washington Post Poll to be released after 5:00 PM gives Obama a "slim advantage", "breaking out of a long-running deadlock" that conveniently coincides with a move from D+3 Friday to D+6 today. Alert Drudge.

GALLUP: R 49% O 48%