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Politico: Republicans likely to keep or extend House majority
Hot Air ^ | November 5,2012 | ED MORRISSEY

Posted on 11/05/2012 1:49:56 PM PST by Hojczyk

Nancy Pelosi has spent much of the past two years proclaiming that Democrats had a great shot at reclaiming the House and returning the speaker

But her drive to regain the majority for Democrats is on the verge of a complete collapse. Democrats are expected to pick up five seats at best — a fraction of the 25 they need. On the eve of the election, some party officials are privately worried that Democrats might even lose ground and drop one or two seats to the Republican majority.

It would mark an epic failure for a party that has a legitimate shot at keeping the presidency and the Senate on Tuesday. The inability of House Democrats to pick off a good number of seats from one of the most unpopular House majorities in modern history will cause a lot of soul-searching in the party come Wednesday

Democrats have insisted that the pollsters have gotten it right, and that turnout will return to 2008 levels, despite numerous surveys showing Republican enthusiasm far outstripping that of Democrats in this cycle. If so, though, would their candidates distance themselves like this from their national party leaders?

They’ve played up their folksy demeanor, campaigned on local issues and gone to great lengths to proclaim they’re not President Barack Obama’s acolytes.

But red-state Democratic Senate candidates are still trying to survive the anti-Obama wave that started in 2010 and is threatening to wash away Democrats from the Great Plains to the Mountain West.

These are still indirect indicators, but the House majority numbers are particularly interesting. If Republicans hold their seats from 2010 and add to them, it’s because the turnout model will look roughly the same, as will voter enthusiasm — and that’s very bad news for Democrats, and not just Nancy Pelosi.

(Excerpt) Read more at hotair.com ...


TOPICS: Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2012polls

1 posted on 11/05/2012 1:50:01 PM PST by Hojczyk
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To: Hojczyk

IMHO, for every single national election, only the House matters. As the House goes, so goes the budget, so goes the leverage of DC, so goes all the power. If we keep the house, and we will quite easily with a VERY solid majority, we’ve won it all.


2 posted on 11/05/2012 1:52:16 PM PST by jackmercer
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To: Hojczyk

The Dems need to put that old nag out to pasture.


3 posted on 11/05/2012 1:57:40 PM PST by ElkGroveDan (My tagline is in the shop.)
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To: jackmercer
. If we keep the house, .... we’ve won it all.

True to some extent, but without the Senate we will not be able to entirely abolish Obamacare.

4 posted on 11/05/2012 2:02:07 PM PST by ElkGroveDan (My tagline is in the shop.)
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To: jackmercer

Randy Weber in Texas is having a real problem. Ron Paul’s old seat in Congress. Randy is one of the most Conservative Christian politicians I know and was my State Rep. One of the problems has been that Pete Olson, another Texas Congressman and, unfortunately, for my District, initially supported a left leaning Republican for Paul’s seat and she lost in the runoff. Just this last weekend Olson woke up and offered to help Randy. If anyone in Texas knows anyone in Randy’s district that hasn’t voted yet, please contact them and ask that they vote for Randy.


5 posted on 11/05/2012 2:08:19 PM PST by Grams A (The Sun will rise in the East in the morning and God is still on his throne.)
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To: Hojczyk

This is news? I know we shouldn’t get cocky, but I consider the House a ‘lock’. Witch Pelosi can continue in the minority. I’d prefer her in Leavenworth but will have to settle. Politics is the art of the possible.


6 posted on 11/05/2012 2:10:52 PM PST by Rummyfan (Iraq: it's not about Iraq anymore, it's about the USA!)
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To: jackmercer

Yep, and the GREAT news is that the Tea Party freshmen are doing very well and we’re likely to have MORE conservatives in the House this term.
A Republican majority with enough conservative members that it’s difficult for the RINOs and Dems to combine against them like last term!

We will come close, may even make it.


7 posted on 11/05/2012 2:13:39 PM PST by mrsmith (Dumb sluts: Lifeblood of the Media, Backbone of the Democrat Party!)
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To: Hojczyk

This just shows the built-in treachery of the presidential poll distortion. The democrats, and the MSM, and most of the major polling firms, would have us to believe that there is going to be a significant turn-out advantage for the democrats (like 2008 or even higher). Yet if this is true, how in the world would we at the same time expect for the republicans to pick up more house seats? Either we are going to have a strong D turnout like most of the polling firms factor in (which would almost certainly result in a loss of R house seats) or the republicans will pick up house seats (which everyone seems to agree will happen). But if that’s the case, then that almost certainly suggests that the R turnout will be good. If that’s true, then almost all the presidential polling overstated Obama’s support. It can’t be both ways. I’m guessing (and praying) that its the latter.


8 posted on 11/05/2012 2:16:36 PM PST by AaronInCarolina
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To: Hojczyk
This is the canary in the mine that no one is talking about when they talk about Democrat turnout surpassing Republican, why isn't Congress in danger of going Democrat?

in 2008 they picked up many House seats as well.

This Democrat narrative that the 2008 turnout was a change in voting for the US on a permanent basis is a myth created from their own minds.

Republicans are going to outperform the Democrats and the pollsters will explain it by stating that they believed 2008 represented a shift in the American voting demographic, when it was in fact, an aberration.

9 posted on 11/05/2012 2:18:24 PM PST by fortheDeclaration (Pr 14:34 Righteousness exalteth a nation:but sin is a reproach to any people)
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To: jackmercer
Nancy Pelosi has spent much of the past two years proclaiming that Democrats had a great shot at reclaiming the House and returning the speaker

Yeah, but if that woman can't tell at least 25 whoppers a day on camera she gets fined by the Democrat National Committee.

10 posted on 11/05/2012 2:18:59 PM PST by Steely Tom (If the Constitution can be a living document, I guess a corporation can be a person.)
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To: AaronInCarolina
Now you know why Michael Barone says that privately... all of the pollsters are telling him that they have no idea of what they are looking at. They do not know if their totals are accurate or not. They are scared to death. If I look at their polls and I look at the election... I see all of the Mo with Romney and I see a misfiring junker that is burning a lot of oil in obama’s camp.

LLS

11 posted on 11/05/2012 3:05:44 PM PST by LibLieSlayer (OUR GOVERNMENT AND PRESS ARE NO LONGER TRUSTWORTHY OR DESERVING OF RESPECT!)
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To: ElkGroveDan
A party run by sane people would have forced Pelosi out of the leadership before the 2010 midterm drubbing in order to minimize their losses. As much as the 'rats hate us they view their own supporters with utter contempt. Who does that old bat have incriminating photos of that they still let her run the show?

Its as if the GOP still used Bush as its main public spokesman. I mean WTF?

12 posted on 11/05/2012 3:11:37 PM PST by Mad_as_heck (The MSM - America's (domestic) public enemy #1.)
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To: Hojczyk

I agree that we will keep the house and that is very important. I do no agree with any predictions of a “landslide” for either party. I have no idea what would make anyone think a landslide is underway for either. I will be happy with the house, though.


13 posted on 11/05/2012 3:40:33 PM PST by DallasSun (Courage~Fear that has said its prayers.)
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To: jackmercer
As the House goes, . . . so goes all the power.

That was true when we were a Constitutional republic. Obama set horrible precedents of arbitrary rule via unelected agencies.

14 posted on 11/05/2012 4:10:31 PM PST by Jacquerie (Exterminate rats.)
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To: jackmercer

Exactly what has the Boehner House done with the budget over the past 2 years? Trillion dollar deficits. Raising of the debt ceiling. Fiscal cliff coming in January. Exactly how many entitlement programs has the Republican house defunded or cut over the past 2 years?

Winning the House only matters if you use the Constitutional powers. If your leadership doesn’t have the stomach for a fight, it is meaningless.


15 posted on 11/05/2012 4:18:28 PM PST by Soul of the South
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