Skip to comments.Internal polls: Romney up one in OH, two in IA, three in NH, tied in PA and WI
Posted on 11/05/2012 3:42:50 PM PST by SeekAndFind
The skeptical view of leaking these is that it smacks of what desperate campaigns do when they know they're losing. Remember Tom Barrett? He wanted the world to believe, contra nearly all of the independent polling, that he and Scott Walker were dead even two weeks out from the recall election this summer. That made perfect sense in his case: He was behind, everyone knew it, and he needed a morale booster to keep his base from giving up. How is that analogous to Romney's situation? Is there any Republican anywhere who's given up and thinks O's slight lead in Ohio in the independent polls is immune to huge GOP turnout tomorrow? The final Gallup and Rasmussen national tracking polls each have Romney ahead by a point, a fact Drudge is trumpeting as I write this. There are no Romney voters at this point who need rosy internal polls to nudge them out the door tomorrow.
Mitt Romney is ahead by a single percentage point in Ohio, according to internal polling data provided to MailOnline by a Republican party source.
Internal campaign polling completed last night by campaign pollster Neil Newhouse has Romney three points up in New Hampshire, two points up in Iowa and dead level in Wisconsin and – most startlingly – Pennsylvania.
Internal poll show Romney trailing in Nevada, reflected in a consensus among senior advisers that Obama will probably win the state. Early voting in Nevada has shown very heavy turnout in the Democratic stronghold of Clark County and union organisation in the state is strong.
Yeah, at this point I’m treating Nevada for O the way I’m treating North Carolina for Mitt — technically still in play, but easily the hardest “get” for the opposition. The good news is, there are few scenarios realistically in which the election would come down to Nevada. One is if O wins the big four in the Rust Belt and midwest — Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin — and needs one more state to push him over the line. If that happens, though, then he’ll probably be riding enough of a wave that he can grab one of the more competitive battleground states — Colorado, New Hampshire, or Iowa — to give him the election. Ditto for Mitt: If he wins Colorado, then he can get to 270 either with Ohio alone or with Wisconsin plus Iowa or New Hampshire, both of which look like genuine toss-ups vis-a-vis Nevada. The only way that Nevada is decisive is if there’s some truly odd scramble among the battleground states where, say, Romney wins Ohio but loses Colorado and Wisconsin and Iowa and New Hampshire. Not worth worrying about, especially if Romney’s internal polls are accurate. But just in case, our loyal readers in Nevada will be turning out tomorrow, right? No excuses, especially with Dean Heller in a tight race. Even if Nevada slips away from Romney, it might be the difference in whether he gets to work with a Republican or Democratic Senate.
Exit question: Seriously, are we going to know who won this election tomorrow night? Quote:
[I]n the wee hours Wednesday morning, [Ohio] counties will begin their count of the provisional ballots. These are votes that have been challenged for a wide variety of legitimate reasons. They include: Ohioans who are not registered; registered voters who moved but failed to update their addresses; people who showed up at the right polling place but were directed to the wrong precinct; voters who did not bring proper identification to the polls; and those who requested an absentee ballot but decided to vote in person…
The rough Republican rule of thumb is that Romney requires a statewide lead of, at least, 50,000 votes to survive the provisional ballot phase of the Ohio long count. The requisite election night margin for Romney may, in fact, need to be higher. It all depends on the number of provisional ballots plus valid absentee ballots (postmarked Monday or earlier), which are still in the mail. And despite the best efforts of the secretary of states office to release an accurate count of disputed and missing ballots Wednesday morning, the final numbers will probably trickle in from Ohios 88 counties over the following few days.
Accepted provisional ballots won’t be added to the state’s vote totals until November 17-21. Legal challenges could drag things out weeks longer, a la Florida 2000. Consider this another motivator for 100 percent Republican turnout tomorrow: If we can’t stop Ohio from being very, very close, maybe we can stop it from mattering at all.
Who would have thought Romney could be up more in Iowa and NH than in Ohio?
But..things change in politics over time.
Sorry, “internals” are crap.
This could be close to the truth, understating their advantage, or overstating. Not sure what this reports tells us.
So does IW, NH, WI along with VA, NC, FL and CO.get Romney in less Ohio?
WI and IA do it without NH. WI and NH does it without IA.
Oblowme sucks worse than Herbert Hoover - theres no chance for re-election for these guys when the economy goes down the tubes and I dont think even massive Rat cheating and fraud can help Mister Owebama.
I am hopeful that the only way that Hawaii is “up one”
is when OBummer relocates after his defeat
in the election poles and the island population is “ up one”.
and take Michelle with you
and especially : Mrs Robinson !!
Might be some validity to this. Refer back to last week when Nebraska governor Heineman was told by his high ranking Iowa state official that Romney would win Iowa by 2.
Why would the Romney campaign be releasing their internals?
If it’s to dishearten Obama’s drooling sycophants, we’re gonna need better numbers than that.
Unless the “internals” are being used as disinformation or a misdirection ploy.
Not sure if this is LIVE, but this Mitt rally in Columbus, OH was/is today. Pretty cool. Inside a hanger.
bump for tomorrow. Thanks Mrs. D!
I don’t know where these numbers come from, but I don’t believe for a minute that Romney has released his real internals. It’s like a coach giving the other team his next ten plays.
Who knows, these COULD be Romney internals, but from a couple of weeks or a month ago, but not from yesterday or today.
I don’t think it’s desperation - I think it’s true. Romney will win Ohio, and if for SOME reason he can’t win it (unlikely), he has Iowa, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and NH as backup states. I like those odds. Obama has to win more swing states than Romney.
(On a side note: Anyone know when my posts will stop having to be “reviewed” before showing up? It’s been like weeks, and I’ve posted almost 60 posts. I was hoping I would be able to post in realtime by election day!)
You are right. Most internals are crap.
You know Iowa's going Romney when MasterNate has given up on it lol: "Obama got some mediocre polls in Iowa today, but he doesn't need it."
Because Neil Newhouse carries Barone-strength cred, and there are still 2-3% Undecideds in some of the battleground states.
"Internal campaign polling completed last night by campaign pollster Neil Newhouse has Romney three points up in New Hampshire, two points up in Iowa and dead level in Wisconsin and most startlingly Pennsylvania."
Herbert Hoover didn’t have a third of the loyal lemmings that Obama has pre-committed to his candidacy.