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Exclusive: Romney campaign internal polling puts Republican nominee up ONE POINT in Ohio...
Daily Mail ^ | 11/5/12 | Toby Harnden

Posted on 11/05/2012 1:19:21 PM PST by SoFloFreeper

Mitt Romney is ahead by a single percentage point in Ohio, according to internal polling data provided to MailOnline by a Republican party source.

Internal campaign polling completed last night by campaign pollster Neil Newhouse has Romney three points up in New Hampshire, two points up in Iowa and dead level in Wisconsin and - most startlingly - Pennsylvania.

Internal poll show Romney trailing in Nevada, reflected in a consensus among senior advisers that Obama will probably win the state. Early voting in Nevada has shown very heavy turnout in the Democratic stronghold of Clark County and union organisation in the state is strong.

Romney is to campaign in Cleveland, Ohio and Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania on election day, reflecting the tightness of the race in Ohio and the tantalising prospect of success in Pennsylvania, which has not gone Republican in a presidential campaign for 24 years.

Nearly all public polling put Obama ahead in Ohio by whisker at least. The RealClearPolitics average of polls there gives the president a 2.8 per cent advantage. But the Romney campaign insists that pollsters have their models wrong and are overestimating Democratic turnout and underestimating Republican enthusiasm.

(Excerpt) Read more at dailymail.co.uk ...


TOPICS: Breaking News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Ohio
KEYWORDS: 2012; 2012polls
Damn, I hope Mitt's people are feeding this information as just a WEE bit off...and they're really 3 or 4 up.

What say you prognosticators who think Mitt is going to win Ohio by more than 1 point? Is he feeding them only "day of" election polls and not the internals on early voting??

1 posted on 11/05/2012 1:19:29 PM PST by SoFloFreeper
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To: SoFloFreeper
Damn, I hope Mitt's people are feeding this information as just a WEE bit off...and they're really 3 or 4 up. What say you prognosticators who think Mitt is going to win Ohio by more than 1 point? Is he feeding them only "day of" election polls and not the internals on early voting??

Just a thought. If I wanted to radiate confidence, while ensuring my maximum turnout, no matter how far ahead I was, I would say it's just a point -- or tied.

2 posted on 11/05/2012 1:24:16 PM PST by Gulf War One
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To: SoFloFreeper
Romney has the momentum! You shouldn't vote for Obama Ohio!
3 posted on 11/05/2012 1:24:18 PM PST by icwhatudo (Low taxes and less spending in Sodom and Gomorrah is not my idea of a conservative victory)
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To: SoFloFreeper

what about FL?

We need VA, FL, OH , CO

Notice how the media ignore the states obama will lose, like NC, IN


4 posted on 11/05/2012 1:25:51 PM PST by manc (Marriage =1 man + 1 woman,when they say marriage equality then they should support polygamy)
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To: SoFloFreeper

I suspect they’re up considerably more.

Karl Rove kind of let the “close poll” strategy slip this morning when he mentioned that close polls are a better campaign tool than big leads. It also makes plenty for pundits and media to talk about.


5 posted on 11/05/2012 1:28:35 PM PST by cripplecreek (What does it profit a man if he gains the whole world but loses his soul?)
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To: cripplecreek

bump!


6 posted on 11/05/2012 1:29:57 PM PST by ConservativeMan55
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To: SoFloFreeper
My prediction, 100% guaranteed: ANYTHING Newhouse has "leaked" to the press is coming directly from Romney's campaign staff or Romney himself, and has ONLY a coincidental relationship to whatever his actual numbers say.
7 posted on 11/05/2012 1:31:24 PM PST by FredZarguna ("Post Hoc, ergo propter hoc," is no way to reason through life, son.)
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To: cripplecreek

I find it impressive that Romney is campaigning in Cleveland and Pittsburgh ON ELECTION DAY... this was almost never done and is a sign of energy (remember when GW Bush took off the weekend before the 2000 election??)


8 posted on 11/05/2012 1:31:24 PM PST by laconic
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To: SoFloFreeper

I think clearly the Romney strategy has always been an election day turnout one.

The media, for reasons known, are distorting the early voting stats, and polls.

On the former, they are most certainly wrong, and any amateur internet user can find comparative stats to show in most states Dem turnout is sharply down and Republican sharply up. It is simply a fact, although that is based on party registration.

If the Republican base turnout, and the Reagan Democrat switch overs are anything like most of us suspect, then it is going to be a strong Romney victory.

Obviously, I’m not an American voter, so I can only watch nervously from the sidelines waiting for the Conservatives to save the world from the Obama catastrophe.

If a few good freepers and others drag a few extra souls to the polls, it will be a good night tomorrow!


9 posted on 11/05/2012 1:32:50 PM PST by UKrepublican
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To: manc
what about FL?

Florida is safely in our camp. It's also an excellent predictor of the Ohio situation - if Romney wins Florida by 5 or so, he's a lock here.

My own guess is that the race here is within a point or two - after all, the campaign has said as much for a while. There's no way to really measure intensity though, and I believe the rabid desire of most conservative Ohioans (like me!) is such that Romney could win with a more comfortable margin. My final prediction for Ohio is Romney wins with a margin of 100,000 votes, or about 50.5-49. If the unseen evangelical and conservative Catholic vote turns out in larger margins, he'll win by 2 or 3 points.

10 posted on 11/05/2012 1:33:16 PM PST by TonyInOhio (Remember: THE EXIT POLLS ARE WRONG!)
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To: laconic

I can’t confidently predict Romney will win here in Michigan but it will be close win or lose. I will predict that we’re going to crush the union ballot proposals and hold all the congressional seats.

Michigan has been trending rightward for a while now.


11 posted on 11/05/2012 1:35:04 PM PST by cripplecreek (What does it profit a man if he gains the whole world but loses his soul?)
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To: SoFloFreeper

I don’t care if he wins by 1 SINGLE vote as long as we get the current lying scumbag MARXIST out!


12 posted on 11/05/2012 1:38:34 PM PST by unixfox (Abolish Slavery, Repeal The 16th Amendment!)
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To: SoFloFreeper

probably is but wanto make sure base goes out and vote so they lowball the number.

Side note, it seems like the problem with FR is fixed as everything is faster and don’t time out anymore.


13 posted on 11/05/2012 1:39:48 PM PST by scbison
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I will say, even if Romney showed a 6 point lead, it wouldn’t make sense to leak it, because it could make people think if they don’t vote, it won’t matter because it is in the bag.

Of course, that does not mean they are lying about the #. It could really be 1.


14 posted on 11/05/2012 1:43:41 PM PST by Crimson Elephant
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To: TonyInOhio

How sure are we that Florida is LOCKED down for us? I’m seeing those early voter lines, and hearing about Dems suing to keep them open longer. Can we swamp them tomorrow? We NEED Florida.


15 posted on 11/05/2012 1:44:15 PM PST by Viennacon
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To: TonyInOhio

thanks for the answer I know it is hard for some of us to get on here right now.

If you do not mind then I saw busses of blacks being brought in by the Dems, now obviosuly most blacks have no idea what they are voting for and only see color or are being told to vote for obama as they sure as hell not for homosexual marriage, openly serving homosexuals, or tax paying sex changes, Yuck.

Do you think we can counter that?
Is there is a big push up in your state for the Catholic vote, I assume there are many Catholics there and sorry if I sound ignorant to your state but I have never been there, thought we sure as hell have half of OH down here LOL.

Did the Catholic church get the vote and word out about this radical agenda by the left and that the Dem party is ot the JFK but a radcial socialist new party hyjacked by the radcial left over of the 60’s?

Thank you in advance.


16 posted on 11/05/2012 1:44:49 PM PST by manc (Marriage =1 man + 1 woman,when they say marriage equality then they should support polygamy)
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To: SoFloFreeper

Historically, republican presidential candidates tend to do a couple of points better in Ohio than they do nationwide. Just check the PVI there. When all is said and done this race won’t even be close. PA, WI, MI and MN are the states you should keep an eye on.


17 posted on 11/05/2012 1:45:11 PM PST by BarnacleCenturion
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To: Viennacon

the Dem party always does htis on election day here,. They always go on about and push lawsits in those 3 counties, outside of those 3 big counties the left is nothing in this state.
Personally I;d rather those 3 counties formed their own damn state and leave us alone here and that is the view by many here.
I’m in St Agustine, one of th emost republican conties and large counties here and I;ve seen no more than 4 obama yard signs in the county and none hardlyin Jacksonville.

Romney will win the NE FL part but yet again it depends on the I4 and so far Romney is way up.

VA I; do nto know and would nto be close if the racist blacks did not have a non white guy to vote for.
Yes the left can shout racist but we all know deep down that half a million of blacks voting in VA and all because of color not issues is why VA went to the left and is close now.

Turning on the TV and expecting to see the split screen of oabma out there on his trail and the other screen showing storm sandy victims and those with no houses, power, food, water. gas, heat etc

OH WAIT SILLY ME, I THOUGHT FOR A SECOND WE HAD A FREE AND FAIR MEDIA WHICH IS NOT BIASED


18 posted on 11/05/2012 1:51:04 PM PST by manc (Marriage =1 man + 1 woman,when they say marriage equality then they should support polygamy)
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To: SoFloFreeper

These numbers are a prop, one way or the other. Personally I believe there is probably a passable margin in the “real” Ohio internal data and that Pennsylvania and Wisconsin numbers are closer to legit. There is simply no way that Pa and Wis are tied AND Ohio that close. The numbers release is a turnout driver and also a goading of the Obama campaign to come forward with “something”


19 posted on 11/05/2012 1:51:18 PM PST by johncocktoasten (Practicing asymetrical thread warfare against anti-Palin Trolls)
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Comment #20 Removed by Moderator

To: SoFloFreeper

Perhaps they’re factoring in 0bama’s voter fraud. Would be a realistic thing to do, actually. I am VERY impressed with how Romney has handled this campaign. God Bless America, and please God SAVE US FROM EVIL ON NOV. 6TH!!!!!


21 posted on 11/05/2012 1:54:10 PM PST by Obama_Is_Sabotaging_America
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To: manc

VA and FL are safe Romney.


22 posted on 11/05/2012 1:57:50 PM PST by KansasGirl ("If you have a business, you didn't build that. Somebody else made that happen."--B. Hussein Obama)
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To: cripplecreek
I suspect they’re up considerably more.

Karl Rove kind of let the “close poll” strategy slip this morning when he mentioned that close polls are a better campaign tool than big leads. It also makes plenty for pundits and media to talk about.

I agree with your take. I think OH and PA are sure wins for Romney at this point.

23 posted on 11/05/2012 1:59:14 PM PST by RobertClark (Inside every "older" person is a younger person wondering what the hell happened?)
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To: cripplecreek
I suspect they’re up considerably more.

Karl Rove kind of let the “close poll” strategy slip this morning when he mentioned that close polls are a better campaign tool than big leads. It also makes plenty for pundits and media to talk about.

I agree with your take. I think OH and PA are sure wins for Romney at this point.

24 posted on 11/05/2012 1:59:32 PM PST by RobertClark (Inside every "older" person is a younger person wondering what the hell happened?)
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To: SoFloFreeper

Central ohio..........the people I have talked to, those who have early voted, say the lines are spectacular. Long, long waits.


25 posted on 11/05/2012 2:00:50 PM PST by Toespi
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To: SoFloFreeper

Oh yeah, we’re getting the straight scoop, sure, whatever...

THere is a reason why they are “internal” numbers.

This is a leak, bs, meant to drive voters to show up. Both parties and the media do it.

Obama, if it was this close, would not have that obvious negative attitude, while Romney is bouncing around and whistling. If this was close, Romney would be making a bigger deal, about some more controversial issues like Benghazi.

I’ll say this, if the race is as close as they make it sound, which I don’t believe, then Romney has run a pretty poor campaign for the last couple weeks. I mean, who the hell would run prevent defense when you are slightly behind?

And we all know, that a tie goes to the Dems every time...


26 posted on 11/05/2012 2:03:14 PM PST by Professional
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To: RobertClark; cripplecreek; LS; Ravi
I agree with you both but I wonder if LS or Ravi have any word from the inside in Ohio for us today?......Tell us what you predict please?

Probably won't even be able to watch whats going on here tomorrow since my connection has been having sooo much d@mn trouble and kicking me out all the time!

27 posted on 11/05/2012 2:05:31 PM PST by thingumbob (I'm a bitter clinger...I dare you to take my gun)
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To: scbison
Side note, it seems like the problem with FR is fixed as everything is faster and don’t time out anymore.

FYI…

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2955229/posts ANNOUNCEMENT: Possible good news regarding our server:JIM ROBINSON

28 posted on 11/05/2012 2:10:56 PM PST by Stand Watch Listen
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To: RobertClark
I agree with your take. I think OH and PA are sure wins for Romney at this point.

Wow - if that's the case, I can quit stressing then ;) Hope you're right.
29 posted on 11/05/2012 2:11:09 PM PST by yorkiemom (Yorkie Moms 4 Ryan ; Ryan + Romney = Recovery)
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To: SoFloFreeper

ON NOV. 7TH MORNING RETURNS TO AMERICA: IN THE END, RIGHT TRIUMPHS

VICE PRESIDENT RYAN

30 posted on 11/05/2012 2:37:51 PM PST by jimsin (w)
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To: SoFloFreeper

BS
Why would they release their internal polls?
Just because it’s in print does not make it true.


31 posted on 11/05/2012 3:00:37 PM PST by CincyRichieRich (Keep your head up and keep moving forward!)
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To: SoFloFreeper

Here is the White Elephant - while a GOP pollster may get the party split right and not over sample RATs, there will be no more reason for a person to speak to that pollster anymore than one from Gallup, Pew.

So we are still not hearing from the 91-97% of the people who won’t even talk to the pollsters.

They don’t know that this pollster is working for the campaign.


32 posted on 11/05/2012 3:45:14 PM PST by arrogantsob (The Disaster MUST Go. Sarah herself supports Romney.)
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Click

33 posted on 11/05/2012 4:04:56 PM PST by RedMDer (https://support.woundedwarriorproject.org/default.aspx?tsid=om93destr)
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To: unixfox
I don’t care if he wins by 1 SINGLE vote as long as we get the current lying scumbag MARXIST out!

Don't you think the Dems would easily steal even 1,000 votes? Here's my question, will Romney stand up to the lying cheats this time? Too many times the Republican plays fair and the Dems steal elections from the people.

34 posted on 11/05/2012 4:09:07 PM PST by Kenny (<p)
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To: Kenny

Trying to make sense out of all the prognosticators has my head spinning and my heart rate up. One minute I’m feeling pretty positive that Romney can win, then I will read something that tells me obammy is going to win in a landslike. What to believe? Lord, hear our prayers.


35 posted on 11/05/2012 5:41:55 PM PST by WVNan
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To: unixfox

I don’t care if he wins by 1 SINGLE vote as long as we get the current lying scumbag MARXIST out!


Amen to that. I feel like it’s Aug 1991 and I’m outside the Russian parliament bldg. not sure which way the tanks will point their guns.


36 posted on 11/05/2012 6:16:07 PM PST by PaleoBob
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To: unixfox

“I don’t care if he wins by 1 SINGLE vote as long as we get the current lying scumbag MARXIST out!”

That’s the problem.

Ohio is going to be VERY close, TOO close. Ohio 2012 is going to be a replay of Florida 2000 — that’s my prediction.

This might not matter — IF Mr. Romney is able to “skirt around the Ohio problem” by picking up 2 or 3 other states that [combined] get him to 270 electoral votes without OH. But right now, that’s still up in the air. There’s just no way to know who’s going to win states like Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. I can just as credibly foresee Obama taking those states as Romney.

I know about “voter enthusiasm”, and all that stuff, blah, blah, blah. All we can do now is wait for the results.

This election is as close as it gets and frankly, Obama is going in with the advantage. I will vote for Mr. Romney and every other Republican candidate tomorrow (I -DO NOT- vote for democrats), but if he wins it will be a “come from behind upset”.

Then again, it could be “1948 all over again” (”Dewey Beats Truman!”)...


37 posted on 11/05/2012 6:57:27 PM PST by Road Glide
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To: jimsin

If Mitt wins, will he open the Office of the President-Elect?


38 posted on 11/05/2012 7:36:06 PM PST by NCC-1701 (The LEFT's intolerance of the RIGHT is intolerable.)
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To: cripplecreek
so Cripplecreek are you going to give Gov. Romney your vote in MI. tomorrow???

just wondering..

39 posted on 11/05/2012 7:40:44 PM PST by haircutter
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To: manc

Did the Catholic church get the vote and word out about this radical agenda by the left and that the Dem party is ot the JFK but a radcial socialist new party hyjacked by the radcial left over of the 60’s?...

...don’t hope for too much with the Novus Ordo Church crowd...especially the women...since the ‘70’s the Church has preached social justice till it oozed out the parishioners’ ears...and made a perfect breeding ground for the lefties to manipulate the message...numerous Catholic women are of the opinion that abortion equals social justice-they themselves would never do it, but they won’t push for legislation to prevent anyone else taking the infanticide route...
...I suspect the bishops made some inroads this time around...and we can all hope that the Church of the last fifty years has run its course and returns to its traditional home, at least to the extent where social justice gets trumped by worship as the focal point of religious identity...


40 posted on 11/06/2012 4:33:41 AM PST by IrishBrigade
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