Posted on 11/05/2012 1:19:21 PM PST by SoFloFreeper
Mitt Romney is ahead by a single percentage point in Ohio, according to internal polling data provided to MailOnline by a Republican party source.
Internal campaign polling completed last night by campaign pollster Neil Newhouse has Romney three points up in New Hampshire, two points up in Iowa and dead level in Wisconsin and - most startlingly - Pennsylvania.
Internal poll show Romney trailing in Nevada, reflected in a consensus among senior advisers that Obama will probably win the state. Early voting in Nevada has shown very heavy turnout in the Democratic stronghold of Clark County and union organisation in the state is strong.
Romney is to campaign in Cleveland, Ohio and Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania on election day, reflecting the tightness of the race in Ohio and the tantalising prospect of success in Pennsylvania, which has not gone Republican in a presidential campaign for 24 years.
Nearly all public polling put Obama ahead in Ohio by whisker at least. The RealClearPolitics average of polls there gives the president a 2.8 per cent advantage. But the Romney campaign insists that pollsters have their models wrong and are overestimating Democratic turnout and underestimating Republican enthusiasm.
(Excerpt) Read more at dailymail.co.uk ...
What say you prognosticators who think Mitt is going to win Ohio by more than 1 point? Is he feeding them only "day of" election polls and not the internals on early voting??
Just a thought. If I wanted to radiate confidence, while ensuring my maximum turnout, no matter how far ahead I was, I would say it's just a point -- or tied.
what about FL?
We need VA, FL, OH , CO
Notice how the media ignore the states obama will lose, like NC, IN
I suspect they’re up considerably more.
Karl Rove kind of let the “close poll” strategy slip this morning when he mentioned that close polls are a better campaign tool than big leads. It also makes plenty for pundits and media to talk about.
bump!
I find it impressive that Romney is campaigning in Cleveland and Pittsburgh ON ELECTION DAY... this was almost never done and is a sign of energy (remember when GW Bush took off the weekend before the 2000 election??)
I think clearly the Romney strategy has always been an election day turnout one.
The media, for reasons known, are distorting the early voting stats, and polls.
On the former, they are most certainly wrong, and any amateur internet user can find comparative stats to show in most states Dem turnout is sharply down and Republican sharply up. It is simply a fact, although that is based on party registration.
If the Republican base turnout, and the Reagan Democrat switch overs are anything like most of us suspect, then it is going to be a strong Romney victory.
Obviously, I’m not an American voter, so I can only watch nervously from the sidelines waiting for the Conservatives to save the world from the Obama catastrophe.
If a few good freepers and others drag a few extra souls to the polls, it will be a good night tomorrow!
Florida is safely in our camp. It's also an excellent predictor of the Ohio situation - if Romney wins Florida by 5 or so, he's a lock here.
My own guess is that the race here is within a point or two - after all, the campaign has said as much for a while. There's no way to really measure intensity though, and I believe the rabid desire of most conservative Ohioans (like me!) is such that Romney could win with a more comfortable margin. My final prediction for Ohio is Romney wins with a margin of 100,000 votes, or about 50.5-49. If the unseen evangelical and conservative Catholic vote turns out in larger margins, he'll win by 2 or 3 points.
I can’t confidently predict Romney will win here in Michigan but it will be close win or lose. I will predict that we’re going to crush the union ballot proposals and hold all the congressional seats.
Michigan has been trending rightward for a while now.
I don’t care if he wins by 1 SINGLE vote as long as we get the current lying scumbag MARXIST out!
probably is but wanto make sure base goes out and vote so they lowball the number.
Side note, it seems like the problem with FR is fixed as everything is faster and don’t time out anymore.
I will say, even if Romney showed a 6 point lead, it wouldn’t make sense to leak it, because it could make people think if they don’t vote, it won’t matter because it is in the bag.
Of course, that does not mean they are lying about the #. It could really be 1.
How sure are we that Florida is LOCKED down for us? I’m seeing those early voter lines, and hearing about Dems suing to keep them open longer. Can we swamp them tomorrow? We NEED Florida.
thanks for the answer I know it is hard for some of us to get on here right now.
If you do not mind then I saw busses of blacks being brought in by the Dems, now obviosuly most blacks have no idea what they are voting for and only see color or are being told to vote for obama as they sure as hell not for homosexual marriage, openly serving homosexuals, or tax paying sex changes, Yuck.
Do you think we can counter that?
Is there is a big push up in your state for the Catholic vote, I assume there are many Catholics there and sorry if I sound ignorant to your state but I have never been there, thought we sure as hell have half of OH down here LOL.
Did the Catholic church get the vote and word out about this radical agenda by the left and that the Dem party is ot the JFK but a radcial socialist new party hyjacked by the radcial left over of the 60’s?
Thank you in advance.
Historically, republican presidential candidates tend to do a couple of points better in Ohio than they do nationwide. Just check the PVI there. When all is said and done this race won’t even be close. PA, WI, MI and MN are the states you should keep an eye on.
the Dem party always does htis on election day here,. They always go on about and push lawsits in those 3 counties, outside of those 3 big counties the left is nothing in this state.
Personally I;d rather those 3 counties formed their own damn state and leave us alone here and that is the view by many here.
I’m in St Agustine, one of th emost republican conties and large counties here and I;ve seen no more than 4 obama yard signs in the county and none hardlyin Jacksonville.
Romney will win the NE FL part but yet again it depends on the I4 and so far Romney is way up.
VA I; do nto know and would nto be close if the racist blacks did not have a non white guy to vote for.
Yes the left can shout racist but we all know deep down that half a million of blacks voting in VA and all because of color not issues is why VA went to the left and is close now.
Turning on the TV and expecting to see the split screen of oabma out there on his trail and the other screen showing storm sandy victims and those with no houses, power, food, water. gas, heat etc
OH WAIT SILLY ME, I THOUGHT FOR A SECOND WE HAD A FREE AND FAIR MEDIA WHICH IS NOT BIASED
These numbers are a prop, one way or the other. Personally I believe there is probably a passable margin in the “real” Ohio internal data and that Pennsylvania and Wisconsin numbers are closer to legit. There is simply no way that Pa and Wis are tied AND Ohio that close. The numbers release is a turnout driver and also a goading of the Obama campaign to come forward with “something”
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