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Rasmussen Party Id: Republicans +5.8 (All Time Record)
Rasmussen Reports ^ | 11/05/2012 | Scott Rasmussen

Posted on 11/05/2012 9:22:53 AM PST by nhwingut

Oct 2012: Republican: 39.1% Democrat: 33.3% Other: 27.5% (R+5.8%)

Sep 2012: Republican: 36.8% Democrat: 34.2% Other: 29.0% (R+2.6%)

(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...


TOPICS: Breaking News; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; partyid; polls
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Same time in 2010 (pre landslide):

Oct 2010: R 33.4% D 36.3% O 30.3% (R-2.9%)

1 posted on 11/05/2012 9:22:54 AM PST by nhwingut
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To: nhwingut
I wonder how long he has been sitting on this info... I wish I had known this a few days ago!

WOW!

2 posted on 11/05/2012 9:24:42 AM PST by America_Right (I am no longer the 53%. Unemployment sucks! Time to write a book...)
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To: nhwingut

Holy cow. If this is accurate, the polling is WAAAAAY off and we very well be looking at a landslide.


3 posted on 11/05/2012 9:26:24 AM PST by woweeitsme
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To: nhwingut

If thats correct...Obama is more than screwed tomorrow, it will be a landslide. I’m not joking about that, the Obama electorate this year in 2012 has been one big illusion pulled on the american people.


4 posted on 11/05/2012 9:27:35 AM PST by sunmars
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To: nhwingut

Holy cow...8.7% swing from 2010?


5 posted on 11/05/2012 9:29:11 AM PST by who knows what evil? (G-d saved more animals than people on the ark...www.siameserescue.org.)
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To: nhwingut

If this is true, how can Rasmussen have the election at R+1? That makes no sense.


6 posted on 11/05/2012 9:29:41 AM PST by Fresh Wind (If Obama is an empty chair, then Biden is the whoopee cushion.)
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To: nhwingut

OK, very good. So the next obvious question is why aren’t we seeing this in his daily polling results?


7 posted on 11/05/2012 9:30:04 AM PST by SamAdams76
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To: nhwingut

So is that the expected turnout?


8 posted on 11/05/2012 9:31:30 AM PST by The Conservative Goddess
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To: nhwingut

L A N S L I D E.


9 posted on 11/05/2012 9:31:53 AM PST by Red Steel
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To: Red Steel

Oops that’s

L A N D S L I D E

Heh...


10 posted on 11/05/2012 9:32:35 AM PST by Red Steel
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To: nhwingut

Party registration can’t have changed that much. Perhaps Republicans are finally answering pollster’s phone calls more?


11 posted on 11/05/2012 9:32:44 AM PST by PapaBear3625 (political correctness is communist thought control, disguised as good manners)
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To: nhwingut

Then unless there has been a sudden surge of Republicans for Obama, polls showing this to be a tight race are full of it.


12 posted on 11/05/2012 9:33:29 AM PST by Buckeye McFrog
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To: nhwingut

Lets see.....

The republicans are + 5.8% and Mitt has the independents in double digits......and this is a close election??

Is this landslide like a 900 pound gorilla in the room and every pollster is ignoring?? Something is not adding up folks.


13 posted on 11/05/2012 9:34:25 AM PST by TMA62 (Al Sharpton - The North Korea of race relations)
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To: SamAdams76

I can think of two reasons:

Ras follows the herd like the rest of them and he thinks Republican voters won’t turn out like that.

But if he is wrong, its very good news for America!


14 posted on 11/05/2012 9:35:20 AM PST by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: SamAdams76

He’s hedging his bets. He was getting pounded by other pollsters when he was sowing D+3 to D+5 when they were going higher than the 2008 turnout so he’s played it safe.


15 posted on 11/05/2012 9:35:20 AM PST by plushaye (Election 2012 Prayer Force)
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To: LS; Ravi; InterceptPoint; tatown; Perdogg; nhwingut; ConservativeGuy; ConservativeDude; ...

CRITICAL Datapoint ping.

See NHWinGut’s post above


16 posted on 11/05/2012 9:35:39 AM PST by SoftwareEngineer
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To: nhwingut

I just don’t understand how there can be such disparity between these numbers, the crowds, and the polls.

I’m ready for tomorrow just so I can see which side was actually right.

But God, I sure hope it’s Romney and the Republicans...


17 posted on 11/05/2012 9:37:12 AM PST by Cato in PA (1/26/12: Bloody Thursday)
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To: SamAdams76

bttt


18 posted on 11/05/2012 9:37:12 AM PST by ConservativeMan55
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To: The Conservative Goddess
So is that the expected turnout?

It certainly is not plus Dim+11 LoL.

I'll be conservative here and say R+2 turnout, and with over 20% Indies breaking for Romney equals L A N D S L I D E.

19 posted on 11/05/2012 9:38:17 AM PST by Red Steel
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To: nhwingut

This is Rasmussen’s party ID rolling research that has 15000 or so respondents. It’s basically good news for Romney, because it is a snapshot of the nation as it is, and with most independents supporting Romney, this should mean a Romney victory. In any case, it’s good news for Romney.


20 posted on 11/05/2012 9:38:33 AM PST by xzins (Retired Army Chaplain and Proud of It! True supporters of our troops pray for their victory!)
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To: woweeitsme; Jet Jaguar; nhwingut

The pollsters are going to have some explaining to do tomorrow night after Romney wins big. This is hugh and series.


21 posted on 11/05/2012 9:39:20 AM PST by rdl6989 (January 20, 2013 The end of an error.)
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To: nhwingut

And with Republicans traditional higher % of voting participation, the “polls” still oversample Dems . . . makes no statistical sense at all

I’m praying for a 1980, redux


22 posted on 11/05/2012 9:40:35 AM PST by A_Former_Democrat
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To: nhwingut

WHOA!!!! And cometh the WILD CARD!


23 posted on 11/05/2012 9:43:17 AM PST by ScottinVA (Pray hard!)
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To: SoftwareEngineer

Yet Charlie Gasperino (SP?) from Fox business just said every CEO he has talked two over the last couple days are telling him it’s going to be Obama. He is not there choice just what the insiders are saying. Supposedly Axelrod told some connected folks that it is baked in, it’s a done deal 100% guaranteed.

All I can say is get out and vote, and audit those electronic vote counting machines.


24 posted on 11/05/2012 9:43:37 AM PST by DAC21
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To: goldstategop

reince Priebus was just on locally with Charlie Sykes.

He expects Mitt Romney to be giving his victory speech by the 10PM CST newscast.


25 posted on 11/05/2012 9:44:43 AM PST by MNlurker
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To: xzins

OK, Rep self ID +6, so WHY does Rasmussen have the race Romney +1 if it was Obama winning by 6 in 2008 with a Dem +6?


26 posted on 11/05/2012 9:44:46 AM PST by Lacey2
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To: rdl6989

The number of people with landlines (and caller ID) are not answering phones (I haven’t).

Many more households are using iPhones or other mobiles as their principle phones.

Therefore, the data are suspect: GIGO (gargage in, garbage out).

I don’t trust any of it, but do feel the “MO” moving in a direction other than towards the Admin.

F


27 posted on 11/05/2012 9:47:00 AM PST by Frank Sheed (The injustice of trendiness is nearly dualistic in its isomorphism.)
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To: Red Steel

I have a question. I think maybe I’m not understanding this properly. Isn’t party ID how people describe their affiliation when asked, and a +whatever in the polls an assumption about the turnout advantage. They’re different aren’t they?


28 posted on 11/05/2012 9:48:24 AM PST by trappedincanuckistan (livefreeordietryin)
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To: who knows what evil?
Holy cow...8.7% swing from 2010?

And most of them stopped watching network news....

29 posted on 11/05/2012 9:49:29 AM PST by GOPJ ( http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zbOuxqK2T34)
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To: who knows what evil?; sickoflibs
Holy cow...8.7% swing from 2010?

And most of them stopped watching network news....

30 posted on 11/05/2012 9:50:44 AM PST by GOPJ ( http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zbOuxqK2T34)
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To: who knows what evil?; sickoflibs
Holy cow...8.7% swing from 2010?

And most of them stopped watching network news....

31 posted on 11/05/2012 9:51:31 AM PST by GOPJ ( http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zbOuxqK2T34)
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To: nhwingut

Kind of odd that Ras didn’t link this on his homepage.


32 posted on 11/05/2012 9:51:49 AM PST by ScottinVA (Pray hard!)
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To: Lacey2; SoftwareEngineer

Because this is not Rasmussen’s party affiliation base that he starts with. This is his recent polling that he adjusts his base party affiliation with.

I think his base is either Dem+3 or Dem+5, depending on which freeper you’re talking to.

He then uses a formula internal to his own organization to adjust that base, and presumably, this party affiliation polling is part of what gets factored in.

Additionally, on today’s Rasmussen 49/48 thread posted by Software Engineer, he points out that Rasmussen says 12% of Republicans claim they are voting for Obama.

So, if you take 88% of 39% you get 34% of these republicans actually voting for Romney. On Romney’s side, however, is that independents favor him over Obama.

I’m an Ohioan, and my gut says Romney’s doing much better than John Glen did. I see Romney winning Ohio by a safe margin, assuming no vote fraud. I also see him winning Florida, Virginia, Colorado, New Hampshire, and Iowa.

My gut says Romney wins barring vote fraud.


33 posted on 11/05/2012 9:52:37 AM PST by xzins (Retired Army Chaplain and Proud of It! True supporters of our troops pray for their victory!)
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To: nhwingut

So HIS presidential tracking poll reflects an electorate 7.8% MORE Democrat than his own extensive electorate surveys show?


34 posted on 11/05/2012 9:53:00 AM PST by johncocktoasten (Practicing asymetrical thread warfare against anti-Palin Trolls)
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To: trappedincanuckistan
I have a question. I think maybe I’m not understanding this properly. Isn’t party ID how people describe their affiliation when asked, and a +whatever in the polls an assumption about the turnout advantage. They’re different aren’t they?

That would be yes and another yes and yes again. :-)

35 posted on 11/05/2012 9:53:39 AM PST by Red Steel
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To: nhwingut

I believe Rasmussen will use this “new data” to change the weighting for his final poll tomorrow morning. He’s waited for the other pollsters to call it a tie in their final polls. He will release his final poll and be the only one to be correct.


36 posted on 11/05/2012 9:53:58 AM PST by zaker99
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To: nhwingut

This is GREAT NEWS!!! This will be just like 2010..I am NOT going to listen to the fear porn coming from the likes of Fox News or Fox Business Network anymore..after seeing this, its just like 2010 and we are going to win!!


37 posted on 11/05/2012 9:54:22 AM PST by Sarah Barracuda
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To: nhwingut

Blowout!!


38 posted on 11/05/2012 9:56:24 AM PST by DarthVader (Politicians govern out of self interest, Statesmen govern for a Vision greater than themselves)
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To: nhwingut

So explain to me how his poll today only had Romney up by 1?


39 posted on 11/05/2012 9:57:17 AM PST by pgkdan (A vote for anyone but Romney is a vote for obama. GO MITT!!)
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To: Frank Sheed
Rasmussen has been weighting samples much more accurately than the others, and here's more justification of why. This is fresh information, presumably less than a week old, showing late deciders going for the challenger. Looooking guuuuuuuddd !

Ras probably underestimated the weighting for Pubbies.

40 posted on 11/05/2012 9:57:43 AM PST by chiller (Sky is the limit with max T-Partiers in the House and Senate to stifle the RINOs)
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To: nhwingut

Is Ras going to release November?


41 posted on 11/05/2012 9:57:56 AM PST by KansasGirl ("If you have a business, you didn't build that. Somebody else made that happen."--B. Hussein Obama)
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To: DAC21

CEOs are the last people you want to rely on for how things are going.

CEO contact with real people is minimal. They drive by the common folk’s middle class homes in their chauffered limos on their way to the executive suite where they will be surrounded suck-up yes-men.

Their outside contacts are limited K-Street lawyers and lobbyists who are fighting to get them tax breaks and corporate welfare. For that, Obama is a great guy.

They are as sheltered and narrow-minded as the pundits and media types who only talk to each other and their politician friends.


42 posted on 11/05/2012 9:59:46 AM PST by oldbill
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To: trappedincanuckistan

Yes, they are different. The trouble most of us are having with the pollsters is this: Self-identifying Republicans outnumber Democrats by five or ten percent. Generally, voter intensity is said to be favoring Republicans by about ten percent. That means the Republican advantage will be GREATER. Generally, pollsters are saying independents favor Romney by about ten percent. Romney’s advantage should grow, again. Yet, they are just about all saying the race is tied. Something does not add up.


43 posted on 11/05/2012 10:01:06 AM PST by liberlog
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To: KansasGirl

Nevermind, this is as of October 31. Hmmmm...why is he not reflecting this in his polls?


44 posted on 11/05/2012 10:01:06 AM PST by KansasGirl ("If you have a business, you didn't build that. Somebody else made that happen."--B. Hussein Obama)
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To: plushaye

From business perspective, it is always better to be wrong when all your competitors are wrong, than to be wrong when all your competitors are right. Rasumssen sees the competitive landscape and decides to call it similarly to everyone else, so that if they’re all wrong, he doesn’t get singled out.


45 posted on 11/05/2012 10:01:35 AM PST by Thane_Banquo (Support hate crime laws: Because some victims are more equal than others.)
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To: TMA62

My guess is that, among other things, other pollsters saw the way Axelrod put the arm on Gallup (for which he should swing) and are trying to avoid a similar experience. They particularly don’t want to be seen as “favoring” Romney while Obama is throwing his post-election tantrum and looking for people to blame for his loss.


46 posted on 11/05/2012 10:02:53 AM PST by Arm_Bears (Be cheerful, be confident, and VOTE!!)
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To: DAC21
"Supposedly Axelrod told some connected folks that it is baked in, it’s a done deal 100% guaranteed."

Oh. Well. I guess that settles it then./sarc.

47 posted on 11/05/2012 10:04:06 AM PST by Reo (the 4th Estate is a 5th Column)
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To: DAC21

So basically they are saying they are stealing the election.


48 posted on 11/05/2012 10:04:37 AM PST by Lady Heron
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To: nhwingut

Buried in one of Nate Silvers recent articles is this gem:

Mr. Romney would not be in much danger of losing the Electoral College if he won the popular vote by more than about 1.5 percentage points. For example, he would be about a 95 percent favorite in the Electoral College if he won the popular vote by two percentage points, according to the forecast model.

But with national polls now showing a slight edge for Mr. Obama, these outcomes have become less likely. If Mr. Romney wins the popular vote, it may be only barely, and that might not be enough for him to win the Electoral College.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/04/state-and-national-polls-come-into-better-alignment/


49 posted on 11/05/2012 10:04:39 AM PST by Raycpa
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To: ScottinVA

[ Kind of odd that Ras didn’t link this on his homepage. ]

I thought so too. He usually does!


50 posted on 11/05/2012 10:05:48 AM PST by KansasGirl ("If you have a business, you didn't build that. Somebody else made that happen."--B. Hussein Obama)
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