Skip to comments.Vanity: Takeaways in Final Gallup Poll - what the MSM overlooks
Posted on 11/05/2012 3:26:03 PM PST by Arec Barrwin
A few key takeaways:
1. Almost all of the recent vote surge for O is in the East, which is uniformly (D) anyway
2. In this, the final poll, Romney leads in the Midwest for the very first time; massive voter swing he leads in 3 of 4 regions (Midwest, West, & South). This is KEY. Romney has not led in the Midwest in any Gallup survey until this one. This is the key to the election.
3. Romney has firmed up the (R) base to an almost unprecedented degree but so has Obama on the (D) side.
4. Obama only has a commanding lead in one group - 18 to 29 year old voters. Romney is tied or leads in all other age groups.
5. Gender gap is real.
Description: Gallup Final 2012 Pre-Election Vote Choice, by Key Subgroups
(Excerpt) Read more at gallup.com ...
Romney will win big!
The gender gap will not matter.
So...um...compelled to ask: Are you the Chinese, or possibly North Korean, Alec Baldwin? Inquiring minds, etc.....
” So...um...compelled to ask: Are you the Chinese, or possibly North Korean, Alec Baldwin? Inquiring minds, etc.”
And if 3 or more FReepers order, do we get free egg lorr ?
OK, just so i have this correct. The average poll taken by the polling companies samples 54-59% democrat, 32-35% republican, and the rest independent. So, according to the polling data, with democrats leading in early voting (Just voting folks, not counted votes) it stands to reason that many of the democrats voting early are in fact voting for Romney. So, when the polling companies are posting their data, they need to take a hard look at the numbers they are feeding us, because in them they are saying Romney is winning.
Anyone to discuss?
I DOUBT THEY'LL BE ABLE TO OVER LOOK THIS COME WEDNESDAY MORNING...HEH.. HEH... HEH..
ON NOV. 7TH MORNING RETURNS TO AMERICA: IN THE END, RIGHT TRIUMPHS
VICE PRESIDENT RYAN
Let’s hope it’s not a “Dewey defeats Truman” moment for your post.
This is a question I've been asking myself ever since the first time I saw Karl Rove's whiteboard about Ohio early voting.
We've all seen it a million times -- Karl Rove counting the early voting in Ohio and how the drop in Democrat early voting and the rise in Republican early voting has wiped out Obama's lead of 2008.
That all sounds good, but the question is:
How many of those Democrat early votes were actually for Romney?
In Ohio, with Obama's war on coal taking it's toll, and Catholic voters rising up for Romney, some of these early Democrat votes MUST be for Romney!
It's something Karl never talks about, probably because it's unknowable until these votes are counted.
But it's something that we should all keep in mind. The same question can be asked about the Democrat early votes in all the other states. How many are actually for Romney? And how many Republican early votes are actually for Obama?
Food for thought.
Well played, Earlybird. That would go for all the places of voting. I think Karl may be on to something but it may be bigger than he thinks. Even on Yahoo, and other political boards, the responses in the positive area and over 60% pro-Romney. It seems the only pro-Obama in bloggosphere are the writers of the articles, who promptly get blasted by the response section.
Yes, food for thought
You get the credit for posting the question first, realcleanguy — you beat me to it.
Another, more anecdotal question. Remember those neighbors of yours that had Obama signs in their yard in 2008? (You know, the ones you were scheming with yourself how to steal without being caught but you never actually did?)
How many of those neighbors have Obama signs in their yards this go round?
There are a lot of Democrats that aren’t voting for Obama this time, and more Republicans that are voting for Romney than did for McCain.
I did notice that, a lot less in fact a total absence of Obama signs in front yards this year, and a lot less stickers on cars